A Comparison of Modelling Systems for the Development and Revision of Water Resources Management Plans

In this paper, two modelling systems used for the simulation of water resources management are compared. These modelling systems can be used in the implementation of the European Water Framework Directive or to perform any other kind of integrated assessment with regard to water resources management. In such investigations the use of models is inevitable, as integrated water resources management demands the survey of large areas as well as the inclusion of the different functions of the water cycle and water utilisation processes. Water quantity data provides important input for hydro-chemical, hydro-ecological or hydro-economic models. If no significant water resources management activities are realised in the basin under study, these data can be provided by simple rainfall-runoff models. If significant water resources management activities are realised or planned, the effects of these water resources management activities must be taken into consideration. Then, however, the use of water resources management models becomes necessary. Two such modelling systems, WRAP and WBalMo, are compared. Both have been designed for the development and revision of water resources management plans. Due to different approaches regarding the modelling routines the models lead to different results in the calculation of water quantities. By tracking the simulation algorithms, an understanding of the detected differences becomes possible. By adapting the spatial configuration of the modelled system, equivalent results can be obtained.     

基于水龄抑制蓝藻水华的供水水库取水方案优选

水体交换年龄称为水龄。水龄长是水库富营养导致蓝藻水华的重要因子。水龄也是环境水体混合过程分析中最佳的示踪指标,可描述水团的混合和更新、污染物的混合和消解等,故常用于研究湖库水体被外源水置换的能力。采用基于染色模拟的水龄模拟方法,改进了EFDC模型,以优选太仓二水厂供水水库取水泵房位置为例,建立了三维数学模型,模拟了不同布置方案对供水水库环流结构和水龄的影响,从而优化供水水库的水龄分布,抑制蓝藻水华。由于水库的氮磷营养盐输入量、水深、气温等自然条件难以控制,通过优化取水泵房位置可以改变水库环流特性,改善水库水体水龄分布,减少水龄、抑制蓝藻生长,从而降低水库富营养化的风险。     

黄河上游梯级水库联合调水调沙及合理库容研究

随着对黄河水资源利用要求的提高,需明确未来调水调沙及南水北调西线工程对黄河上游梯级水库所需库容的影响,探求未来多工况用水要求下合理的梯级水库兴利库容。考虑黄河上游兰州断面需水、梯级水库发电、调水调沙、防洪、防凌等要求,首先建立了以缺水量最小为目标的梯级水库联合调度模型,设置了现状年及远景年共8个方案;其次采用自迭代模拟优化算法求解模型,用长系列径流资料进行优化调度计算;最后对模型求解结果采用时历法推求梯级水库所需兴利库容,确定梯级水库合理库容。从总调沙次数、调沙频率、多年供水量、供水保证率、多年平均发电量、发电保证率等指标分别量化了调水调沙、供水和发电效益。未来梯级水库所需合理库容将因综合需水和调沙次数的增加而增大,而西线工程的实施将有助于减小合理库容规模。在各调沙方案中,仅当2030年西线调水80亿m3时现有的梯级水库兴利库容能够满足综合用水需求,适当降低调沙力度与调沙频率或许是解决这一矛盾的折衷选择。研究成果量化了未来新水资源利用形势下的梯级水库合理库容,为科学指导黄河上游总体工程布局提供了决策依据。     

Assessment of Stochastic Operation Optimization for Reservoirs of Contrasting Scales

Deriving optimal release policies for dams and corresponding reservoirs is crucial for the sustainable water resources management of a region as they directly control the distribution of water to several users. Mathematical optimization algorithms can help in finding efficient reservoir operating strategies taking into account complex system constraints and hydrologic uncertainty. The robustness of operation optimization models may be influenced by physical reservoir characteristics such as size and scale and the effectiveness of a model for a particular case study does not always guarantee the same level of success for another application. This research focused on assessing the applicability of an implicit stochastic optimization (ISO) procedure to derive rule curves for two different dams of contrasting reservoir scales in terms of physical and operational characteristics. The results demonstrated the feasibility of the proposed technique for both small- and large-scale systems in view of the lower vulnerability provided by the ISO-derived policies in contrast to operations carried out by the standard reservoir operating policy as well as the proximity of the ISO operations with those by perfect-forecast deterministic optimization. The ISO procedure also provided operating rules similar to, and even less vulnerable than, those derived by stochastic dynamic programming.     

Managing rivers under changing environmental and societal boundary conditions,Part 1: National trends and U.S. Army Corps of Engineers reservoirs

Most major rivers in the United States are managed by a system of reservoirs; many of which were built more than a half century ago. These reservoirs were designed based on environmental, societal, and regulatory assumptions at the time of construction. Since then, we have learned that climate is not stationary, population growth is being decoupled from energy needs and water demand, and new regulations (such as the Clean Water Act and Endangered Species Act) affect how river systems are managed. This study explores changing environmental, societal, and regulatory conditions relevant to the design and operation of U.S. Army Corps of Engineers reservoirs across the conterminous United States. Results demonstrate large geographic variability in how these conditions have changed over time. In the south‐western United States, there is an amplified trend towards drier conditions and less reservoir flexibility with warmer temperatures, less precipitation, high sedimentation rates, and large population growth. In the north‐eastern United States, the impacts of increased temperature on reservoirs may be masked by greater precipitation and lower water demand. Environmental, societal, and regulatory changes can reduce the flexibility of reservoir operations and, in some instances, make it challenging for the reservoir to meet its intended purpose as designed decades ago. This study is the first step towards formalizing a process for monitoring broad trends relevant to water resources management for the purpose of moving towards adaptation of infrastructure. An interactive tool was developed for each condition: https://nicholasinstitute.duke.edu/reservoir‐national‐trends/ .     

基于目标库容曲线的水库出流模拟模型

随着水库的不断建设，水库对水循环的影响越发重要，水库出流过程已成为陆地水循环的重要一环。为了模拟水库对水循环的影响，需要构建水库出流模拟模型（Reservoir Outflow Simulation Model，ROSM）模拟水库的出流过程，然而，目前提出的ROSM仅适用于预设运行模式的水库，通用性不强。本文假设水库在年内不同季节的目标库容构成目标库容函数曲线（Target Capacity Curve，TCC），通过为不同水库设置不同的TCC提高ROSM的通用性，并从两方面考虑TCC对水库出流的影响，提出了两种模型结构：（1）水库在目标库容较高的季节倾向于蓄水，出流减少，在目标库容较低的季节则倾向于放水，出流增加；（2）水库出流应使得实际蓄水量接近目标库容。根据两种模型结构，构建了4种基于TCC的ROSM，并将其与常用的ROSM应用于长江、珠江、黄河流域的26座水库中。结果发现：（1）考虑了两种模型结构的ROSM的出流模拟、蓄水量模拟表现均为最优，说明所提出的两种模型结构合理有效；（2）考虑了TCC的ROSM模型在多年调节、年调节水库中的出流模拟精度、蓄水量模拟精度均远超其他ROSM，说明考虑TCC可以有效提高在这两类水库的模拟精度，提高了ROSM的通用性。     

汉江流域水资源配置模拟模型研究

将已有的水资源配置模拟模型应用于南水北调中线水源区-汉江流域的水资源配置。将汉江流域水资源系统概化形成网络节点图;根据汉江流域的实际情况,拟定重要水库的供水调度规则;模拟计算流域水资源供需的各个方面,并简要分析南水北调中线取水对丹江口下游的水资源配置的影响,试图为汉江流域水资源的合理高效利用提供一种分析技术手段。     

Application of Intelligent Water Drops Algorithm in Reservoir Operation

Optimum reservoir operation is a challenging problem in water resources systems. In this paper, Intelligent Water Drops (IWD) algorithm is applied in a reservoir operation problem. IWD is a population based algorithm and is initially proposed for solving combinatorial problems. The algorithm mimics the dynamics of river system and the behavior of water drops in the rivers. For this purpose data from Dez reservoir, located in southwestern Iran, has been used to examine the performance of the model. Moreover, due to similarities between IWD and the Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) algorithms, the results are compared with those of the ACO algorithm. Comparison of the results shows that while the IWD algorithm finds relatively better solutions, it is able to overcome the computational time consumption deficiencies inherited in the ACO methods. This is very important in large models with too many decision variables where run time becomes a limiting factor for optimization model applications.     

An alternative approach to the operation of multinational reservoir systems: Application to the Amistad &; Falcon system (Lower Rio Grande/Río Bravo)

An optimization approach for the operation of international multi-reservoir systems is presented. The approach uses Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) algorithms – both steady-state and real-time – to develop two models. In the first model, the reservoirs and flows of the system are aggregated to yield an equivalent reservoir, and the obtained operating policies are disaggregated using a non-linear optimization procedure for each reservoir and for each nation's water balance. In the second model a multi-reservoir approach is applied, disaggregating the releases for each country's water share in each reservoir. The non-linear disaggregation algorithm uses SDP-derived operating policies as boundary conditions for a local time-step optimization. Finally, the performance of the different approaches and methods is compared. These models are applied to the Amistad-Falcon International Reservoir System as part of a binational dynamic modeling effort to develop a decision support system tool for a better management of the water resources in the Lower Rio Grande Basin, currently enduring a severe drought.     

水资源系统模拟模型及其应用

水资源系统模拟模型（简称HBSIM模型）是适合我国水资源规划特点的通用模拟模型．该模型借鉴了国内外同类模型的设计方法，在模型的通用性及模拟功能的实用性方面做了一些开创性工作，除能满足水资源系统的一般模拟需要外，还设立了水资源系统中各项工程的调度运用、水资源补偿调节、农业灌溉用水过程模拟，以及地表水和地下水联合调度等多项模拟功能，是一个包括来水、用水、输水、储水等工程在内的比较完整的水资源系统模拟模型．应用该模型对滦河流域水资源开发现状进行了评价分析．通过应用表明该模型对水资源规划工作有很强的适应性，可基本满足一般流域的实际模拟需要．     

基于水库调度的河流突发水污染应急处置

天然河流水污染事件频发,如何运用水库应急调度降低污染损失具有重要意义。以突发水污染事件应急处置为目标,分别构建了水污染溯源、浓度预测和水库应急调度模型,并通过数值模拟的方式对水库调度方案进行优选,最终建立了一套完善的水库应急调度技术体系。将技术运用于贺江2013年水污染事件应急处置分析,结果表明,模型重构的监测断面污染物浓度过程与实测过程较为接近,优选的水库调度方案及其处置效果也与实际情况基本吻合。结果说明本文建立的水库应急调度关键技术体系可运用于指导河流突发水污染事件应急处置。     

基于系统仿真理论的南水北调东线水量调度

南水北调东线工程是多水源、多用户、多调节水库的大系统，系统的可靠性至关重要。本文运用系统仿真理论建立了该工程的水量调配仿真系统和水量调度模型。采用模糊数学的理论将多目标函数转化为单一目标函数求解，进行了水量调配计算，并且引入了基于数理统计的拉偏试验方法进行仿真试验分析。试验结果表明计算所得东线工程调度过程合理，可靠性较高。     

沈阳市地下水库建设的技术可行性分析

地下水在我国尤其是北方地区城乡供水中占较大比例。地下水库因具有地表水与地下水资源联合调控、多年调蓄、水资源战略储备及应急供水等功能而受到越来越广泛的关注。在分析地下水库基本结构的基础上,提出了建设地下水库的基本条件,并以沈阳市为例进行分析,给出了论证地下水库补给水源、补给区、地下水库储水空间估算及开采条件的具体分析与计算方法。最后利用建立的地下水流数值模型,模拟预测了地下水库建成后分别按常规水源与应急水源两种方式所产生的供水规模。结果表明,在研究区建设地下水库具有较高可行性。     

基于GPU和数据同化的深水湖库水温与溶解氧中短期预报

深水水库通常存在季节性温度分层,由温度分层引起溶解氧等水质指标的分层还会诱发库区水环境水生态问题。当前在中短期时间尺度上对水库水温和溶解氧进行预报的研究相对较少,提高数学模型的模拟效率与精度对提升中短期预报效果至关重要。本文采用集合卡尔曼滤波算法作为同化方法,基于CE-QUAL-W2模型建立水库水动力水质数学模型,基于OpenACC的GPU并行方法提升模型计算效率,构建大黑汀水库水温与溶解氧的数据同化系统,在中短期时间尺度上开展水库水温与溶解氧高精度、高效率预报。预报结果符合水库水温与溶解氧的中短期变化规律,能够为大黑汀水库的供水与生态安全提供技术支撑。     

Streamflow Forecast Errors and Their Impacts on Forecast-based Reservoir Flood Control

Water Resources Management - To make full use of water captured by reservoirs in flood seasons, methods such as forecast-based reservoir flood control (i.e., reservoir operation during flood...     

Influence of Reservoir Operation in the Upper Reaches of the Yangtze River (China) on the Inflow and Outflow Regime of the TGR-based on the Improved SWAT Model

The impact of hydraulic engineering works and human activities on hydrology has become a hot issue along with the economy and social development. The water cycle model of the upper reaches of the Yangtze River (URYR) is established based on the improved Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The inflow and outflow of the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) is simulated in 4 scenarios of the reservoir combination of the URYR:(1) reservoir is not considered; (2) all constructed, under construction and planed to be constructed reservoirs are considered; (3) reservoirs that have been constructed are considered only; (4) reservoirs have been constructed and being constructed are considered. The result shows that reservoir operation in the URYR decreases inflow to TGR at the end of flood season and increases that in dry season, and makes the TGR water storage start time earlier. The result of this study will be proved some references to the regional water resources management and reservoir ecological operation with the influence to eco-environmental flow of the lower reaches, when the schema reservoir constructed in the URYR.     

长江中下游供水安全及其对上游水库调度需求

三峡等长江上游水库建成运用后,将影响中下游沿江地区水资源配置格局,在调查分析长江中下游沿江地区灌溉、供水取用水现状的基础上,分析了长江干流,特别是枯水期的取水需求。为保障中下游沿江地区供水安全,对上游水库调度提出了建议,包括每年枯水期、特别是遇特枯年份,三峡等水库应为长江中下游适当补水;每年灌溉期间,要求蓄水过程不能太短,且保持一定水平下泄流量,在用水紧张期时加大下泄流量。     

供水水库优化模拟风险调度模式的研究

针对水库调度过程中的风险问题,引入了供水水库调度的优化模拟风险管理模式.首先建立了供水水库群的优化调度模型,然后对度量风险的可靠性、脆弱性、回弹性、事故周期等指标作了论述.在此基础上,模拟水库调度过程中存在的风险,并通过模拟与优化的反馈机制,建立了供水水库优化模拟风险调度的总体模式.     

WATER BREAKTHROUGH SIMULATION IN NATURALLY FRACTURED GAS RESERVOIRS WITH WATER DRIVE

NOMENCLATURE Δt———ti me increment T———fracture trans missibility Vb———bulk volume S———saturation K———formation permeabilityKr———relative permeability q———production rate Ф———fluid potential φ———porosity u———viscosity P———capillary pressure I———the exchange term L———fracture spacing ω———upstream weighting factor δ———shape factor ξ———inertial factor SUBSCRIPTS mac———macrofracture mic———microfracture m———matrix x———x-dire…     

生物生态方法保护苏烟水库水源试验

介绍了玉林市苏烟水库通过利用生物生态(人工湿地)保护水资源的实验设计与实施过程,分析了水生植物对富营养化水体的净化效果,论述了供水水源地水库,有计划地、分期分批地建设利用生物生态(人工湿地)技术保护水资源的工程项目的必要性。