以科学为基础的复杂系统工程研制

核武器是特殊的复杂系统，对使用有效性、安全性、可靠性有特殊的要求，核武器的工程研制是以科学为基础的方法进行的，强调基础应用研究，加强系统研究和计算机数值模拟。对复杂系统环境适应能力的力学和材料科学的数值模拟是重要的发展方向，数值模拟的关键建模和试验设计，目前对复杂系统还没有普适的建模理论，21世纪科学的发展，必将在各种学科领域中加快数值模拟的应用。     

Special issue: Reliability management of complex system

Nowadays,reliability is moving toward interdisciplinary research with ever-increasing connotations for full life-cycle system management,including system design,analysis,modeling,test,operation,optimization,etc.Meanwhile,complex systems,such as transportation system,power system,communication system and other various critical infrastructure systems,have posed a big challenge,which attracts great attention both in theory and application.Characterized by nonlinear interaction,emergent response,and high dimensional coupling,the complex systems are in the face of extremely high uncertainty and vulnerability.Therefore,failure of these complex systems could cause even more dramatic cascading impacts,leading to huge losses of life and property.All these realities put forward more urgent requirements for the fundamental theory and specific application of reliability management of complex systems.     

Dynamic risk assessment of complex systems using FCM

Analysing risk of today’s complex systems is challenging due to the complex and dynamic nature of systems. The current risk analysis tools are not able to take the complex interactions among risks into account and therefore they can’t predict the behaviour of risks accurately. In an attempt to overcome this shortcoming, this paper proposes an integrated generalised decision support tool using fuzzy cognitive maps for dynamic risk assessment of complex systems. The proposed approach has the ability to prioritise risk factors and more importantly predict and analysis the influences of each individual risk factor/risk set on the other risks or on the outcomes of complex and critical systems by taking into account probability of occurrence and consequences of risks and also considering the complex dependencies between risk factors. These features could provide practitioners with realistic results in critical industries and able them to manage risks more efficiently.     

Diagnostics and prognostics for complex systems: A review of methods and challenges

Diagnostics and prognostics have a significant role in the reliability enhancement of systems and are focused topics of active research. Engineered systems are becoming more complex and are subjected to miscellaneous failure modes that impact adversely their performability. This ever-increasing complexity makes fault diagnostics and prognostics challenging for the system-level functions. A significant number of successes have been achieved and acknowledged in some review papers; however, these reviews rarely focused on application to complex engineered systems nor provided a systematic review of diverse techniques and approaches to address the related challenges. To bridge the gap, this paper first presents a review to systematically cover the general concepts and recent development of various diagnostics and prognostics approaches, along with their strengths and shortcomings for the application of diverse engineered systems. Afterwards, given the characteristics of complex systems, the applicability of different techniques and methods that are capable to address the features of complex systems are reviewed and discussed, and some of the recent achievements in the literature are introduced. Finally, the unaddressed challenges are discussed by taking into account the characteristics of automotive systems as an example of complex systems. In addition, future development and potential research trends are offered to address those challenges. Consequently, this review provides a systematic view of the state-of-the-art and case studies with a reference value for scholars and practitioners.     

复阻尼结构动力方程的高斯精细时程积分法

复阻尼振动系统的瞬态响应通常只能在频域内求解。该文根据复阻尼理论应遵循对偶复化的原则,结合精细积分指数矩阵和高斯积分的运算方法,通过理论推导,给出了复阻尼结构动力方程的高斯精细时程积分法。分别采用Newmark-法和高斯精细时程积分法计算了复阻尼多自由度系统地震时程响应,并与频域法（视为精确解）的计算结果进行比较。结果...     

Simulation model for complex refrigeration systems based on two-phase fluid network – Part I: Model development

Some complex refrigeration and heat pump systems with several condensers and evaporators have been developed for different kinds of application. Traditional simulation models were developed for systems in certain operating modes and they failed in modeling the complex refrigeration systems with uncertainties of heat exchangers function and refrigerant flowing direction. In order to predict the performance of complex refrigeration systems, a simulation model is presented based on the two-phase fluid network. The model is consisted of distributed-parameter model of heat exchangers and connecting tubes, map-based model of inverter compressor and electronic expansion valve (EEV). Based on the characteristic of refrigeration system and fluid network, the three conservation equations, i.e. energy, momentum and mass equations, are solved iteratively. This model can deal with the uncertainty of refrigerant flow direction by separating the solving process of the components and the fluid network model, and therefore can simulate different kinds of complex refrigeration systems in different operating modes and conditions. The model is validated by the experimental data of an inverter air conditioner in heating/cooling operating modes and it shows the error of the model is mainly determined by the error of submodels of components in calculating heat transfer and pressure loss. The model is applied for performance analysis of three kinds of complex refrigeration systems in the accompanying article [Shi W.X., Shao, S.Q., Li, X.T., Yan, Q.S., 2008. Simulation model for complex heat pump systems based on two-phase fluid network: part II – model applications, International Journal of Refrigeration 31 (3), 500–509.].     

Comprehensive reliability evaluation of multistate complex electromechanical systems based on similarity of cloud models

High reliability and security have become the hallmarks of complex electromechanical systems. Owing to the difficulties in fault data collection, ambiguity and uncertainty have been inevitably associated with complex electromechanical systems. Thus, the ability to perform reliability evaluation using scarce fault data is of immense significance to these machines and is the focus of this study. A similarity based cloud model is proposed to evaluate the running state of complex electromechanical systems. By combining objective and subjective factors, the reliability of complex electromechanical systems is evaluated by calculating the similarity between the cloud models of actual and standardised states. Next, the inverter of an offshore wind turbine is used to verify the accuracy and effectiveness of the proposed approach. The cloud model based framework for reliability evaluation inherits the preponderance of the uncertainty problem, overcomes the drawbacks of the current reliability approaches, and provides a theoretical basis, as well as a practical approach for the maintenance and repair of complex electromechanical systems with missing fault data. Additionally, it also provides a new methodology for solving the uncertainty problems caused by paucity of data.     

Sociotechnical systems, risk management, and public health: comparing the North Battleford and Walkerton outbreaks

Accidents in different complex sociotechnical systems are rarely compared using the same theoretical framework for risk management. We conducted a comparative analysis of two Canadian public health disasters involving drinking water distribution systems, the North Battleford Cryptosporidium parvum outbreak in April 2001 and the Walkerton E. coli outbreak in May 2000. Both accidents resulted from a complex interaction between all levels of a complex sociotechnical system. However, the low-level physical and individual factors differed in the two cases, whereas, the high-level governmental and regulatory factors tended to be the same. These findings may have implications for the design of public policies to minimize risk in complex sociotechnical systems.     

Some Problems of Nonlinear Mechanics in Geophysics, Planetology, and Strength of Materials

We generalize results of investigations in nonlinear mechanics as applied to the phenomena at the interface between strength of materials, stability of discrete-continuous complex systems, and physicoengineering problems of verifying the unified theories of fundamental fields. The principle of a fundamental triad is formulated. In this case, systems analysis can be useful for simulating the dynamics of complex discrete-continuous mechanical systems of different dimentional scales.     

复杂系统计算机仿真的研究与设计

复杂系统与复杂性是21世纪的核心科学问题之一，并引入国家重点基础研究发展规划。基于复杂系统的复杂性和不确定性，很难想像可以采用传统朴素的还原论法进行可行性研究。推崇多智能主体的模糊计算机仿真来研究复杂系统的复杂性，并设计了一个基于多智能体的复杂系统分布仿真平台。     

速度相关型耗能减振体系参数影响的复模量分析

利用复模量阻尼理论研究粘滞阻尼器和粘弹性阻尼器与斜撑串联的复合阻尼元件对结构减振效果的参数影响及耗能减振体系反应分析的简化计算方法.首先,采用复模量方法对两类阻尼器与斜撑串联的复合元件阻尼特性进行了分析;然后确定了影响阻尼器减振效果的复模量参数,得到了耗能减振系统中阻尼器实际发挥作用的参数影响量化关系式;第三,建立了阻尼器与斜撑串联的复合元件等效模型,提出了速度相关型耗能减振体系反应分析的简化方法;最后,通过对单自由度耗能减振体系的地震反应进行数值计算,验证了简化分析方法具有良好的计算精度.     

某大型综合医院空调节能设计

从空调系统冷热源、空调末端、通风系统和控制等方面介绍了某大型综合医院空调设计采用的节能措施,为未来同类型医院建筑空调系统的节能设计提供一定参考。     

Deploying a Recall Mitigation Framework for Systems Engineering

This article proposes a novel safety framework for complex systems, called Recall Mitigation Framework, that assists engineering teams in identifying recall risk factors during the systems engineering process. Current frameworks do not address recalls for complex systems. A modified ISO 42010:2011 for identifying multiple stakeholders of complex systems is also proposed, as the current architecture is tailored for systems with only one stakeholder. Existing system engineering tools such as Failure Mode and Effects Analysis are incorporated to identify risks factors. To measure recall propensity of each recall factor, a new formula, called Recall Index (pRI), was also developed and applied in this research. Four activity phases are included within the framework: Stakeholder Identification, Data Acquisition, Statistical Safety Analysis, and Risk Review. Both the Recall Mitigation Framework and pRI are validated through a case study involving the engineering of a new vehicle model in the automotive industry. Use of the framework provided better insights to the engineering team by employing statistical methods to identify three predictive factors that influence vehicle recalls: fuel economy, warranty coverage, and crashworthiness. Managers in other industries can utilize this framework early in the systems engineering lifecycle to identify potential risk factors and prevent a costly recall campaign.     

A primary influence vertex approach to identify driving factors in complex integrated agri-industrial systems – an example from sugarcane supply and processing systems

Integrated agri-industrial systems (IAISs), such as sugarcane supply and processing systems, are complex systems and hence generally difficult to understand and manage. The large number factors in IAISs coupled with the complex interrelationships among the factors make it challenging to identify the points of intervention for improving their overall performance. Several approaches, such as the network theory and the Theory of Constraints have been used to identify important factors in systems with variations in success. This paper demonstrates a primary influence vertex approach for identifying and ranking the factors that drive the performance of IAISs. The approach is based on comprehensive causal network analyses and was tested in four relatively diverse large-scale sugarcane milling operations in South Africa. Results from the analyses were found to be consistent with the literature and external knowledge of the milling areas as at the time of the study. It is concluded that the approach can proffer a sound basis from which deeper rooted problems in systems can be identified on an ongoing basis. It is, however, recommended that the approach should be systematically compared with other relevant methods that are used to analyse complex systems.     

Complex amplitude correlations of dynamic laser speckle in complex ABCD optical systems

Within the framework of complex ABCD-matrix theory, exact theoretical expressions are derived for the space-time-lagged cross-covariance functions of the fields valid for arbitrary (complex) ABCD-optical systems, i.e., systems that include Gaussian-shaped apertures and partially developed speckle. Specifically, we show and discuss the results for the three generic systems, i.e., free-space propagation, Fourier transform configuration, and imaging. To cope with various surface structures of varying rms surface heights, we apply two models in addition to employing the usual model for surfaces giving rise to fully developed speckle. The theoretical results found for free-space propagation are supported by interferometrically obtained data.     

Logical reconfiguration of reconfigurable manufacturing systems with stream of variations modelling: a stochastic two-stage programming and shortest path model

Designing flexible manufacturing systems in general, and flexible material handling system in particular, is a complex problem, typically approached through several stages. Here the focus is on the conceptual design stage during which valid approximation-based methods are needed. The segmented flow topology (SFT) AGV systems were developed to facilitate control of complex automated material handling systems. This paper introduces a decomposition method, directly derived from timed Petri nets (TPN) theories, to calculate the expected utilization of AGVs (as servers of SFT systems) and to derive simple operational decision rules leading to maximum system productivity at steady state, for a given deterministic routeing of discrete material through the manufacturing system.