Entering our 16th year

Background and objective

British American Tobacco (BAT) has historically enjoyed a monopoly position in Kenya. Analysis of recent tobacco control debates and a case study of BAT''s response to the emergence of competition in Kenya are used to explore the company''s ability to shape public policy and its treatment of tobacco farmers.

Design

Analysis of internal industry documents from BAT''s Guildford depository, other relevant data and interviews with key informants.

Results

BAT enjoys extensive high‐level political connections in Kenya, including close relationships with successive Kenyan presidents. Such links seems to have been used to influence public policy. Health legislation has been diluted and delayed, and when a competitor emerged in the market, BAT used its contacts to have the government pass legislation drafted by BAT that compelled farmers to sell tobacco to BAT rather than to its competitor. BAT was already paying farmers less than any other African leaf‐growing company, and the legislation entrenched poor pay and a quasi‐feudal relationship. BAT''s public relation''s response to the threat of competition and the ministers'' public statements extolling the economic importance of tobacco growing suggest that BAT has manipulated tobacco farming as a political issue.

Conclusions

The extent of BAT''s influence over public policy is consistent with the observations that, despite ratifying the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control, progress in implementing tobacco control measures in Kenya has been limited. The benefits of tobacco farming seem to be deliberately exaggerated, and an analysis of its true cost benefits is urgently needed. Tobacco farmers must be protected against BAT''s predatory practices and fully informed about its activities to help them have an informed role in policy debates. As image, particularly around the importance of tobacco farming, seems key to BAT''s ability to influence policy, the truth about its treatment of farmers must be publicised.Driven by the recent expansion of transnational tobacco corporations (TTCs) across many low‐ and middle‐income countries, the burden of tobacco''s health effect is shifting. It is predicted that, by 2030, 70% of the estimated 10 million global deaths from tobacco will occur in developing countries.¹ In this context, sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA) offers an opportunity for global health, being the only region in the world where primary prevention of the tobacco epidemic remains possible.² However, with TTCs investing heavily in the region during the last decade and with evidence of rapidly rising consumption, particularly among youth,³ this window of opportunity is closing rapidly.Implementation of comprehensive regulatory measures is required to prevent further escalation of the epidemic in SSA, and the World Health Organisation''s Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) provides excellent opportunities in this regard. The African nations recognised this in pressing unanimously for a comprehensive treaty while simultaneously acknowledging the need to find an alternative income for countries dependent on tobacco farming, notably Zimbabwe and Malawi.^2,3 Tobacco farming represents a unique dimension to the tobacco control debate in SSA, and previous analyses of tobacco industry documents suggest that the tobacco industry has attempted to hijack such debates by presenting tobacco control as a “first world” concern that would lead to economic destabilisation and exacerbate poverty and malnutrition among tobacco‐growing countries.⁴ By contrast, a growing body of evidence suggests that tobacco farmers face considerable financial and health risks from growing tobacco.^{5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12}As African nations seek to implement the provisions of the FCTC, tobacco control legislation will have to be developed and enacted, providing opportunities for the tobacco industry to influence policy. The fact that Kenya has signed and ratified the FCTC¹³ while (as detailed below) efforts to implement legislation consistent with the treaty have been unsuccessful amid persistent reports of BAT influence¹⁴ highlights the possible barriers. Hence, there is an urgent need to understand the tobacco control policy environment in Africa, including the relationships between tobacco farmers and TTCs, which are clearly integral to this. However, there remains a dearth of research in this area. This paper seeks to address this gap by examining British American Tobacco''s (BAT) policy influence in Kenya.BAT merits particular attention as it is the dominant player in SSA, with a market share of over 90% in 11 countries.³ The selection of Kenya reflects its significance to BAT''s operations in Africa, the role it seems to have in BAT''s efforts to influence policy regionally¹⁵ and the nature of Kenyan tobacco politics.After an introduction to the origins and character of BAT''s political influence in Kenya and an overview of recent tobacco control debates in the country, this paper uses a case study of the company''s response to an emergent competitor, Mastermind Tobacco Kenya (referred to in the documents as MTK or MTCo), to examine BAT''s influence on policymaking. The paper therefore aims to shed important light on issues critical to the development of tobacco control across SSA.     

The invisible hand: how British American Tobacco precluded competition in Uzbekistan

Background

Tobacco industry documents provide a unique opportunity to explore the role transnational corporations (TNCs) played in shaping the poor outcomes of privatisation in the former Soviet Union (FSU). This paper examines British American Tobacco''s (BAT''s) business conduct in Uzbekistan where large‐scale smuggling of BAT''s cigarettes, BAT''s reversal of tobacco control legislation and its human rights abuses of tobacco farmers have been documented previously. This paper focuses, instead, on BAT''s attitude to competition, compares BAT''s conduct with international standards and assesses its influence on the privatisation process.

Methods

Analysis of BAT documents released through litigation.

Results

BAT secured sole negotiator status precluding the Uzbekistan government from initiating discussions with other parties. Recognising that a competitive tender would greatly increase the cost of investment, BAT went to great lengths to avoid one, ultimately securing President Karimov''s support and negotiating a monopoly position in a closed deal. It simultaneously secured exclusion from the monopolies committee, ensuring freedom to set prices, on the basis of a spurious argument that competition would exist from imports.Other anticompetitive moves comprised including all three plants in the deal despite intending to close down two, exclusive dealing and implementing measures designed to prevent market entry by competitors. BAT also secured a large number of exemptions and privileges that further reduced the government''s revenue both on a one‐off and ongoing basis.

Conclusions

BAT''s corporate misbehaviour included a wide number of anticompetitive practices, contravened Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development''s and BAT''s own business standards on competition and restricted revenue arising from privatisation. This suggests that TNCs have contributed to the failure of privatisation in the FSU. Conducting open tenders and using enforceable codes to regulate corporate conduct would help deal with some of the problems identified.In a deal announced in 1994 and finalised in 1995, British American Tobacco (BAT) acquired the previously state‐owned tobacco monopoly establishing its own private monopoly. The deal remains Uzbekistan''s largest privatisation to date,¹ accounting for >30% of its foreign direct investment between 1992 and the end of 2000.² We have already documented the appalling impacts this investment has had on tobacco control, with BAT reducing cigarette taxes by 50%³ and overturning tobacco legislation.⁴ Other work reveals BAT''s human rights abuses of tobacco farmers⁵ beholden to the new monopsony. This paper instead examines BAT''s corporate behaviour in Uzbekistan. It explores its influence on the privatisation process, assesses the extent to which its investment helped deal with macroeconomic problems, transform economies, and promote efficiency and growth, as the international financial organisations intended when promoting privatization, and analyses the extent to which BAT''s behaviour could be considered anticompetitive.     

The California Tobacco Control Program's effect on adult smokers: (1) Smoking cessation

Objectives

To estimate national population trends in long‐term smoking cessation by age group and to compare cessation rates in California (CA) with those of two comparison groups of states.

Setting

Retrospective smoking history of a population sample from the US: from CA, with a comprehensive tobacco‐control programme since 1989 with the goal of denormalising tobacco use; from New York and New Jersey (NY & NJ), with similar high cigarette prices but no comprehensive programme; and from the tobacco‐growing states (TGS), with low cigarette prices, no tobacco‐control programme and social norms relatively supportive of tobacco use.

Participants

Respondents to the Current Population Survey–Tobacco Use Supplements (1992–2002; n = 57 918 non‐Hispanic white ever‐smokers).

Main outcome measures

The proportion of recent ever‐smokers attaining long‐term abstinence (quit ⩾1 year) and the successful‐quit ratio (the proportion of all ever‐smokers abstinent ⩾1 year).

Results

Nationally, long‐term cessation rates increased by 25% from the 1980s to the 1990s, averaging 3.4% per year in the 1990s. Cessation increased for all age groups, and by >40% (p<0.001) among smokers aged 20–34 years. For smokers aged <50 years, higher cigarette prices were associated with higher quitting rates. For smokers aged <35 years, quitting rates in CA were higher than in either comparison group (p<0.05). Half of the ever‐smokers had quit smoking by age 44 years in CA, 47 years in NY & NJ, and by age 54 years in TGS.

Conclusion

Successful smoking cessation increased by 25% during the1990s in the US. Comprehensive tobacco‐control programmes were associated with greater cessation success than were with high cigarette prices alone, although both effects were limited to younger adults.There is considerable evidence that cigarette smoking will cause the premature death of approximately half of those who start and continue to smoke, with half of these deaths occurring before age 70 years.^1,2 Public health efforts to rapidly reduce the estimated 438 000 smoking‐related deaths in the US each year have targeted increasing successful quitting among current smokers.^1,3 The British Doctors Study² evaluated the relationship between age of smoking cessation and later mortality. The study suggests that smokers who quit successfully by age 35 years may avoid much of the excess mortality risk from smoking, those who quit successfully by age 50 years will avoid approximately half of the excess mortality risk accrued by continuing smokers and those who quit by age 60 years will avoid about one‐third of the excess mortality risk. These ages are useful cut‐points to assess progress towards tobacco‐control goals in population groups.There are several reasons to expect that successful cessation rates may have increased in the US during the 1990s. Many health economists feel that price increases are among the most effective policy approaches to reduce smoking behaviour.⁴ Significant increases in cigarette prices have consistently been associated with reductions in both per capita cigarette usage and smoking prevalence, with the latter presumed to occur largely through increased quitting.⁵ Real cigarette prices increased nationally in the US during the 1980s and 1990s, with the largest increase imposed by the tobacco industry in 1999, associated with the consolidated settlement in 1998 of lawsuits brought by attorneys general from 46 states.⁶ In addition, during the 1990s, many individual states increased their excise taxes on tobacco products.⁷ These high prices may have encouraged more smokers both to try to quit and to successfully maintain cessation. Thus, quitting indices should have increased across the US, with more marked increases seen in states with higher cigarette prices.In addition, during the 1990s, nicotine replacement products such as the nicotine patch and nicotine gum became widely available, following randomised trials that showed their efficacy.⁸ Older smokers and those who smoked more heavily were more likely to use these cessation aids; by 2001, approximately 40% of smokers aged >35 years had used nicotine replacement products to assist in quitting, leading to an expectation that the major increase in successful quitting would occur in older smokers.⁹During the 1990s, there were marked differences among US states in initiatives targeting tobacco cessation. Thus, it is of interest to assess changes in quitting rates not only for the US as a whole but also among groups of states that differed in their tobacco‐control initiatives. Among US states, California (CA) was the first to begin a comprehensive tobacco control programme in 1989, which had one specific programme goal to encourage smoking cessation and a broader mandate to change community norms regarding tobacco use.^10,11 Through the 1990s, CA was unique in spending an average of $3.67 per person per year on a comprehensive public health programme to change smoking‐related norms.¹² The programme included price increases and other interventions, and a mass media campaign in which about one‐quarter of the advertisements encouraged smokers to quit.¹³ There is considerable evidence that such a mass media programme can effectively motivate smokers to initiate an attempt to quit.^14,15,16 CA also pioneered the Smokers'' Helpline, an evidence‐based cessation approach^17,18 that has been an integral part of the CA Tobacco‐Control Program since 1993.¹⁹ In addition, CA passed the first state‐wide law banning smoking in the workplace in 1995, and there is mounting evidence that smoke‐free workplaces encourage smoking cessation.²⁰ Thus, it might be expected that CA would have higher rates of successful smoking cessation than states without such a comprehensive tobacco control programme.In comparison, the adjacent states of New York and New Jersey (NY & NJ) have a combined population size similar to CA, and both were similar to CA in the level of cigarette excise taxes during the 1980s and 1990s, yielding similar high cigarette prices.⁷ However, neither state supported a comprehensive tobacco‐control programme during the 1990s, with funding for tobacco control averaging about $0.20 per capita in NY during this time, and less in NJ (Ursula Bauer, personal communication 2005). It might be expected that NY & NJ would have lower rates of smoking cessation than CA and higher cessation rates than states with lower excise taxes and cigarette prices during the study period.A third contrasting group are the six US states that accounted for >90% of tobacco production in the US during the study period.²¹ These have consistently had among the lowest excise taxes and cigarette prices in the nation,⁷ and none had a state‐specific tobacco‐control programme in the 1990s. In addition, evidence suggests that social norms are more supportive of tobacco use in tobacco‐growing regions.²² These tobacco‐growing states (TGS) are Kentucky, Tennessee, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia and Georgia, which together have a population slightly larger than CA, or NY & NJ. These states might be expected to show the lowest rates of successful smoking cessation during the study period.In this report, we assess changes in rates of successful smoking cessation from the 1980s to the 1990s in the US as a whole. We consider trends in cessation rates for three age groups of smokers: young adults (20–34 years), early middle‐aged adults (35–49 years) and late middle‐aged adults (50–64 years). We then compare rates of cessation in the 1990s for the three comparison groups of states: CA (high cigarette price and a comprehensive tobacco‐control programme), NY & NJ (high price but no comprehensive programme) and the TGS (neither high price nor programme). We limit consideration to non‐Hispanic whites because of considerable differences in tobacco‐use behaviour among race or ethnic groups that may confound the analysis,²³ and do not assess trends in cessation within state groups because of small sample sizes.     

Effect of local youth-access regulations on progression to established smoking among youths in Massachusetts

Objective

To test whether community‐level restrictions on youth access to tobacco (including both ordinances and enforcement) are associated with less smoking initiation or less progression to established smoking among adolescents.

Design

Prospective cohort study of a random sample of adolescents in Massachusetts whose smoking status was assessed by telephone interviews at baseline and 2‐year follow‐up, and linked to a state‐wide database of town‐level youth‐access ordinances and enforcement practices.

Participants

A random sample of 2623 adolescents aged 12–17 years who lived in 295 towns in Massachusetts in 2001–2 and were followed in 2003–4.

Main outcome measures

The relationship between the strength of local youth access restrictions (including both ordinances and level of enforcement) and (1) never‐smokers'' smoking initiation rates and (2) experimenters'' rate of progression to established smoking was tested in a multilevel analysis that accounted for town‐level clustering and adjusted for potential individual, household and town‐level confounders.

Results

Over 2 years, 21% of 1986 never‐smokers initiated smoking and 25% of 518 experimenters became established smokers. The adjusted odds ratio (OR) for smoking initiation was 0.89 (95% CI 0.61 to 1.31) for strong versus weak youth‐access policies and 0.93 (95% CI 0.67 to 1.29) for medium versus weak policies. The adjusted OR for progression to established smoking among adolescents who had experimented with smoking was 0.79 (95% CI 0.45 to 1.39) for strong versus weak local smoking restrictions and 0.85 (95% CI 0.50 to 1.45) for medium versus weak restrictions.

Conclusions

This prospective cohort study found no association between community‐level youth‐access restrictions and adolescents'' rate of smoking initiation or progression to established smoking over 2 years.Nearly 90% of smokers start smoking during adolescence.¹ Consequently, preventing teenagers from starting to smoke is a public health priority.^2,3 To start smoking, adolescents need access to tobacco products. A teenager''s first few cigarettes usually come from friends or family members, but, once smoking becomes more established, youths turn to commercial sources of cigarettes (eg, stores and vending machines) to ensure a reliable supply.^3,4,5,6 They are able to do so despite laws in all US states that ban the sale of tobacco to minors, because compliance with these laws is limited.^3,7,8If youths could be prevented from easily obtaining cigarettes from commercial sources, it is hypothesised that fewer youths would become smokers.^3,8 Efforts to reduce youth access to tobacco have focused on enforcing bans on tobacco sales to minors in retail stores—the source of most tobacco bought by youths. A complementary strategy bans self‐service displays of tobacco products in retail stores. These displays facilitate youth access to tobacco by encouraging shoplifting and by minimising a young person''s contact with a salesperson, thereby making it more likely that a sale will occur.^3,8,9,10 Cigarette sales in vending machines have also been targeted because vending machines are more important tobacco sources for younger teens who have more difficulty in buying tobacco in stores.^3,8 Effective strategies include banning vending machine sales of cigarettes or limiting vending machines to adults‐only locations. Equipping vending machines with locking devices that must be deactivated by a clerk who presumably verifies the purchaser''s age has little evidence of efficacy.³Measures to restrict youths'' access to tobacco products have been widely advocated since the early 1990s and are now incorporated into global tobacco control efforts.¹¹ The World Health Organization''s Framework Convention on Tobacco Control includes a provision requiring ratifying nations to adopt and implement laws that prohibit the sale of tobacco to minors.¹² In the US, the federal Synar amendment has, since 1996, required all states to have and enforce youth‐access laws and document a specific level of compliance or risk loss of federal block grant funds.¹³ Many US communities have gone beyond state laws and adopted local ordinances with stronger youth‐access provisions.^3,7,14 In Massachusetts, for example, the number of towns with some form of youth‐access regulation increased from 35 (10%) in 1994 to 244 (70%) in 2000.³Despite the widespread adoption of youth‐access restrictions, this approach remains controversial because evidence to support its efficacy in reducing adolescent smoking is limited.^{3,8,11,15,16,17} In 2004, a systematic review of interventions to reduce minors'' access to commercial sources of tobacco products was conducted by the Cochrane Tobacco Addiction Group. It concluded that active enforcement of youth‐access laws could reduce illegal sales to minors, but found little evidence that these interventions reduced the prevalence of adolescent smoking or perceived ease of access to tobacco products.^18,19 An earlier meta‐analysis also found no evidence that increases in merchant compliance with youth‐access laws were associated with the prevalence of youth smoking,²⁰ although that review''s methods were challenged.¹⁷Another source of evidence comes from observational studies. These do not test specific interventions but examine the association between adolescent''s exposure to youth‐access laws or perceived ease of access to tobacco products and their prevalence of smoking. These studies have conflicting results. A cross‐sectional study of adolescents in 314 towns in Massachusetts found no consistent association between living in a town with a youth‐access ordinance and prevalence of adolescent smoking or perceived ease of access to tobacco products, but the study had no data on the extent to which merchants actually complied with the laws.²¹ By contrast, a cross‐sectional study of 75 communities in Oregon found a small positive linear relationship between a town''s measured rate of illegal sales to minors and the prevalence of smoking of 11th graders, but not of 8th graders.²² A cross‐sectional analysis of 11 towns in Illinois found that teenagers in towns with higher rates of illegal tobacco sales to minors were more likely to initiate but not to continue to smoke,²³ However, the cross‐sectional design of these studies limits their ability to support causal inferences. Among 12 communities in New York, those reaching a high (>80%) rate of retailer compliance with youth‐access laws had a smaller increase in adolescents'' rate of frequent smoking over 4 years, as measured by two cross‐sectional school surveys.²⁴Few observational studies have used the stronger prospective cohort design. A cohort study of 592 adolescent non‐smokers in Massachusetts found that those living in towns with a local tobacco sales ordinance at baseline were less likely to progress to established smoking over 4 years than youths in towns without these ordinances. However, the finding lost statistical significance after adjustment for potential confounders and there was no information on actual compliance with the laws.²⁵ Gilpin et al²⁶ followed two cohorts of adolescent non‐smokers in California over 3 years. In the first cohort, followed when merchant compliance with youth access laws was low, smoking initiation rates did not differ between youths who initially perceived that cigarettes were difficult or easy to obtain. In the second cohort, conducted after overall merchant compliance state‐wide had improved, youths who perceived that cigarettes were hard to obtain were less likely to initiate smoking.The current study adds to the existing literature on the effect of youth access restriction in several ways.¹ It includes data from a representative cohort of adolescents living in a large number of communities that range in size and demographic characteristics.² A town‐level clustered multilevel analysis allows us to control for a large variety of individual, environmental and town‐level characteristics, including the community''s baseline anti‐smoking sentiment.³ A longitudinal design provides stronger evidence for causal inferences.⁴ The extent to which youth‐access laws are actually enforced is measured.⁵ The study deconstructs smoking uptake into two components: youths'' experimentation with tobacco products and their progression to established tobacco use. Restrictions on youth‐access laws are hypothesised to affect the latter more than the former.^3,8     

Global leaf companies control the tobacco market in Malawi

Objective

To examine the influence of US‐based tobacco leaf‐buying companies, Universal Corporation and Alliance One International, on Malawi''s economy and trade policy in 2000–6.

Design

Analyses of ethnographic data and tobacco industry documents.

Results

Universal Corporation and Alliance One International, through their subsidiary companies Limbe Leaf and Alliance One, respectively, in Malawi, control policy‐making advisory groups and operate a tobacco cartel to influence Malawi''s economic and trade sectors. Limbe Leaf''s corporate secretary and lawyer is a member of several policy‐making committees that advise the Malawi government on tobacco‐related trade policy. The corporate representative''s presence prevents other committee members from taking positions against the tobacco industry and ensures government policy that advances industry interests to obtain low‐cost tobacco. The World Bank and Malawi''s Anti‐corruption Bureau report allegations of collusion between Limbe Leaf and Alliance One over prices at tobacco markets. Allegations of collusion between Limbe Leaf and Alliance One prompted Malawi President Bingu Mutharika in 2006 to warn the companies to end non‐competitive practices or leave the country, but there was no meaningful follow‐up action. Findings from interviews with small‐scale tobacco traders in Malawi suggest that Universal and Alliance One International purchase smuggled raw tobacco from the neighbouring countries, Zambia and Mozambique, undermining growers'' efforts to benefit from tobacco farming in Malawi.

Conclusion

These actions restrict competition, depress tobacco prices for Malawi''s farmers and contribute to poverty in Malawi, while keeping the country dependent on tobacco growing.Malawi (fig 1​1)) is the 13th poorest country in the world.¹ In all, 76% of Malawians, survive on less than US$2 (£1.02, €150) per day.¹ Malawi derives 65% of its foreign earnings from tobacco, making Malawi the most tobacco‐reliant country in the world.² Tobacco accounts for 43% of the agricultural gross domestic product,³ 13% of the overall gross domestic product⁴ and 23% of Malawi''s total tax base.⁴ Out of a total workforce of 5 million people, between 600 000 and 2 million people are employed in Malawi''s tobacco sector.⁵ Land devoted to tobacco growing in Malawi occupies 122 000 hectares out of 4.6 million hectares under cultivation.^6,7 Over 98% of Malawi''s leaf (mostly burley tobacco^8,9) is exported to 68 countries,^3,5,10 with the European Union (EU; 44% of exports) and US (13% of exports) being the top destinations.¹¹ US‐based leaf‐buying companies Universal Corporation and Alliance One International purchase Malawi''s tobacco and sell it to Philip Morris and British American Tobacco (BAT).Open in a separate windowFigure 1 Malawi is a landlocked country that transports its tobacco overland to ports in Mozambique and South Africa. Smuggling raw tobacco occurs in both directions along Malawi''s borders with Zambia and Mozambique (shaded area).Tobacco Journal International, a tobacco industry trade publication, reported in September 2006 that low and uncertain tobacco prices in Malawi created friction between tobacco farmers and leaf‐ buying companies.^12,13 This trade publication, however, did not analyse the role of leaf companies, through their buying practices, in influencing tobacco prices or identify the cigarette manufacturers as the beneficiaries of Malawi''s low and uncertain tobacco prices. Our study goes beyond the Tobacco Journal International report to reveal how leaf companies and manufacturers hide behind explanations of supply and demand to deflect discussion on tobacco sectors and public dialogue on tobacco prices in Malawi from the economic practices of leaf companies and manufacturers to market forces. The purpose of this paper is to show the ways Universal and Alliance One, the main buyers of Malawi''s tobacco, control the local tobacco sector, influence Malawi''s trade policy to ensure access to low‐cost raw tobacco and depress raw tobacco prices, preventing Malawi from benefiting from tobacco growing.     

The California Tobacco Control Program's effect on adult smokers: (2) Daily cigarette consumption levels

Objective

To investigate the association of the California Comprehensive Tobacco Control Program with self‐reported population trends of cigarette consumption during 1992–2002.

Setting and Participants

Participants were non‐Hispanic white daily smokers (aged 20–64 years, n = 24 317) from the Tobacco Use Supplements to the Current Population Survey (1992–2002). We compared age‐specific trends in consumption among daily smokers in three groups of states with differing tobacco control initiatives: California (CA; high cigarette price/comprehensive programme), New York and New Jersey (high cigarette price/no comprehensive programme), and tobacco‐growing states (TGS; low cigarette price/no comprehensive programme).

Results

There was a general decline in cigarette consumption across all age groups in each category of states between 1992 and 2002, except the oldest age group in the TGS . The largest annual decline in the average number of cigarettes per day was observed among daily smokers in CA who were aged ⩾35 years (−0.41 cigarettes/day/year (95% CI −0.52 to −0.3)). This rate was significantly higher than the −0.22 cigarettes/day/year (95% CI −0.3 to −0.16; p<0.02) observed in same‐age daily smokers from New York and New Jersey, and significantly higher than the rate in same‐age daily smokers from the TGS (−0.15 cigarettes/day/year (95% CI −0.22 to −0.08; p<0.002)). There were no significant differences across state groups in the decline observed in daily smokers aged 20–34 years. In 2002, only 12% of daily smokers in CA smoked more than a pack per day, which was significantly lower than the 17% in New York and New Jersey, which again was significantly lower than the 25% in the TGS.

Conclusions

The California Tobacco Control Program was associated with significant declines in cigarette consumption among daily smokers aged ⩾35 years of age, which in turn should lead to declines in tobacco‐related health effects. The decline in consumption among young adult smokers was a national trend.Established statistical models from cohort studies have consistently demonstrated that smoking‐related diseases, especially lung cancer, vary exponentially with consumption level and smoking duration.^1,2,3,4 A significant reduction in the cigarette consumption level is therefore expected to reduce future risk of lung cancer in the population, which is demonstrated by several studies.^5,6,7 In recent years, there has been a call for harm‐reduction strategies to influence smoking levels in continuing smokers⁸; however, there are few studies of population trends and influences on cigarette consumption.^9,10Individual consumption levels differ considerably with age in the US. Typically, consumption levels increase in young adults, remaining relatively stable in middle‐aged adults, and decline in seniors.^9,11,12 Although public health strategies to reduce tobacco‐related disease have focused on promoting quitting and discouraging initiation,¹³ there is evidence that these strategies may also reduce cigarette consumption levels in the population. In this analysis, we assess the association of the California Tobacco Control Program with declines in cigarette consumption, in comparison with states having only high cigarette prices or with no tobacco control programme. Numerous studies have identified that increases in tobacco‐taxes lead to increases in cigarette prices and result in significant reductions in tobacco smoking behaviour.¹⁴ The decrease in cigarette consumption due to price increase has been shown to be a major contributor to the overall reduction in tobacco‐smoking behaviour,¹⁵ and many smokers reduce cigarette consumption before making an attempt to quit.¹⁶The California Comprehensive Tobacco Control Program that was introduced in 1989 was the first large state‐specific programme in the USA.¹⁷ This programme used funding from a dedicated increase in the tobacco excise tax to support a mass‐media counter‐advertising campaign, “grassroots” activism, particularly aimed at protecting non‐smokers from exposure to second‐hand smoke, school and community initiatives against smoking, and smoking cessation services. This programme introduced the first statewide ban on smoking in the workplace in 1994, which has been associated with reduced consumption levels among continuing smokers.^{18,19,20,21,22} From the start of the programme in 1989 to 2002, annual per capita cigarette sales in California (CA) declined by 60%, compared with 40% for the rest of the USA.²³In this report, we investigate the effect of the California Tobacco Control Program on daily consumption levels of daily smokers of differing age groups. We compare population trends for non‐Hispanic white daily smokers from CA with those in two comparison groups of states that have similar large combined populations and different tobacco control initiatives. One group is the top TGS with >90% of US tobacco production during the study period,²⁴ that had low excise taxes²⁵ and no comprehensive programme throughout the 1990s; this group includes Kentucky, Tennessee, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia and Georgia. The other group is New York and New Jersey, two neighbouring states that have a combined population size similar to CA and the TGS with tobacco excise taxes similar to CA during the 1990s²⁵ but no comprehensive tobacco control programme.For our analyses, we used state‐specific estimates of cigarette consumption among smokers from surveys of tobacco use in the US conducted by the Bureau of the Census between 1992 and 2002 in the Tobacco Use Supplements to the Current Population Survey (TUS‐CPS).     

Physician assessment of patient smoking in Indonesia: a public health priority

Objective

To explore Indonesian physician''s smoking behaviours, their attitudes and clinical practices towards smoking cessation.

Design

Cross‐sectional survey.

Setting

Physicians working in Jogjakarta Province, Indonesia, between October and December 2003.

Subjects

447 of 690 (65%) physicians with clinical responsibilities responded to the survey (236 men, 211 women), of which 15% were medical faculty, 35% residents and 50% community physicians.

Results

22% of male (n = 50) and 1% of female (n = 2) physicians were current smokers. Approximately 72% of physicians did not routinely ask about their patient''s smoking status. A majority of physicians (80%) believed that smoking up to 10 cigarettes a day was not harmful for health. The predictors for asking patients about smoking were being male, a non‐smoker and a medical resident. The odds of advising patients to quit were significantly greater among physicians who perceived themselves as sufficiently trained in smoking cessation.

Conclusions

Lack of training in smoking cessation seems to be a major obstacle to physicians actively engaging in smoking cessation activities. Indonesian physicians need to be educated on the importance of routinely asking their patients about their tobacco use and offering practical advice on how to quit smoking.Tobacco use is one of the greatest causes of preventable deaths and disease in human history. According to the World Bank, four‐fifths of the world''s 1.1 billion smokers live in low‐income or middle‐income countries.¹ East Asian and Pacific countries currently account for about 38% of the world''s smokers and men, especially those aged 30–49 years, account for about 80% of these smokers.² In Indonesia, 59% of male, but only <5% of women, smoke.³ Notably, the rates of tobacco use, especially among adolescents and young adults in East Asia, continue to rise.¹ Although reliable national data are unavailable for Indonesia, estimates in 2004 showed a high incidence rate of tobacco‐attributable mortality and morbidity.⁴ For example, in 2002, the International Agency of Research on Cancer Globocan estimated that the age‐standardised mortality of respiratory tract cancer in Indonesia among men was 68.5 per 100 000 population, but that among women was only 21.5 per 100 000 population.⁵Nations such as Indonesia continue to bear significant health and socioeconomic burdens associated with tobacco use, primarily due to aggressive tobacco industries marketing and the slow progress in tobacco control activities resulting from a strong dependency of the national economy on the tobacco trade.⁶ To reduce the economic and health burden from cigarette smoking, effective measures for smoking cessation and tobacco control are clearly needed. Public health education, and governmental policies such as taxation on sales and restrictions on advertisement may serve as useful tools to limit the use of tobacco products.^7,8 Currently, such measures are lacking in Indonesia.Smoking behaviour and attitudes towards smoking cessation by healthcare providers in Western countries have been studied extensively.^9,10,11 Research findings suggest that asking about smoking and offering advice about cessation help smokers quit.^{12,13,14,15,16} Of equal importance is the observation that the smoking status of healthcare providers may influence their willingness to offer smoking cessation advice to smokers.^16,17 Unfortunately, limited research is available on non‐Western countries in regard to behaviours, perceptions and attitudes towards smoking among physicians and other healthcare providers.^16,18,19,20Understanding the attitudes of health professionals towards cessation of tobacco use is an important early step in the development of a country''s comprehensive anti‐tobacco initiative. This step is especially important in countries like Indonesia, where there are few anti‐tobacco initiatives and physicians play a particularly important role as opinion leaders and role models. To understand physician''s attitudes towards tobacco, we conducted a survey of physicians to explore a range of issues including smoking behaviours, and their attitudes and clinical practices regarding smoking.     

"Accommodating" smoke-free policies: tobacco industry's Courtesy of Choice programme in Latin America

Objective

To understand the implementation and effects of the Courtesy of Choice programme designed to “accommodate” smokers as an alternative to smoke‐free polices developed by Philip Morris International (PMI) and supported by RJ Reynolds (RJR) and British American Tobacco (BAT) since the mid‐1990s in Latin America.

Methods

Analysis of internal tobacco industry documents, BAT “social reports”, news reports and tobacco control legislation.

Results

Since the mid‐1990s, PMI, BAT and RJR promoted Accommodation Programs to maintain the social acceptability of smoking. As in other parts of the world, multinational tobacco companies partnered with third party allies from the hospitality industry in Latin America. The campaign was extended from the hospitality industry (bars, restaurants and hotels) to other venues such as workplaces and airport lounges. A local public relations agency, as well as a network of engineers and other experts in ventilation systems, was hired to promote the tobacco industry''s programme. The most important outcome of these campaigns in several countries was the prevention of meaningful smoke‐free policies, both in public places and in workplaces.

Conclusions

Courtesy of Choice remains an effective public relations campaign to undermine smoke‐free policies in Latin America. The tobacco companies'' accommodation campaign undermines the implementation of measures to protect people from second‐hand smoke called for by the World Health Organization Framework Convention on Tobacco Control, perpetuating the exposure to tobacco smoke in indoor enclosed environments.Latin Americans are highly exposed to second‐hand tobacco smoke (SHS) both in public places and in workplaces.^1,2 In 2001, the Pan American Health Organization launched its “Smoke Free Americas” initiative³ to “raise awareness of the harm caused by secondhand tobacco smoke, and support efforts to achieve more smoke‐free environments in the Americas.” There is longstanding strong public concern over the effects of SHS in Latin America. In 1997, research conducted for Philip Morris International (PMI) showed that about 80% of respondents in four Latin American countries agreed that “Other people''s tobacco smoke poses a long term health risk to nonsmokers.”⁴ These results reflect a stronger consensus that SHS is hazardous than Philip Morris (PM) found in the US in 1989—62% of non‐smokers and 32% of smokers—as the movement for smoke‐free workplaces and public places was beginning to accelerate them.⁵ A 2001 survey conducted for the World Health Organization (WHO) in the main urban areas of Argentina showed strong public support (94%; 96% non‐smokers and 89% smokers) for the creation of smoke‐free places to avoid SHS.⁶ Public opinion polls conducted in 2006 in Argentina⁷ and Uruguay⁸ reported that 92% of respondents agreed that “SHS is dangerous for nonsmokers'' health”, showing an increase in public concern about SHS by 12% since 1997.The main barrier to progress in implementing smoke‐free policies in Latin America has been the efforts by two transnational tobacco companies, PMI and British American Tobacco (BAT), which control almost the entire cigarette market in the region through their subsidiaries (PMI 40%, BAT 60%). Similar to the voluntary self‐regulating advertising codes, which the tobacco companies use to fight restrictions on tobacco advertising,^9,10 the tobacco industry has orchestrated public relations campaigns in Latin America since the mid‐1990s to avoid legislated smoke‐free policies.^11,12 As in the US, beginning in the late 1980s,¹¹ this effort mobilised the hospitality industry to block meaningful tobacco control legislation to preserve the social acceptability of smoking and to protect industry profits. These programmes, known as Accommodation in the US and Courtesy of Choice in most parts of the rest of the world,^11,13,14,15 encourage the voluntary creation of smoking and non‐smoking sections in the hospitality industry as an alternative to legislation requiring 100% smoke‐free environments. Also, as in the US, the tobacco industry sought to present ventilation as the “solution” to SHS.¹⁶As of April 2007, 12 Latin American countries (Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Ecuador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay and Venezuela) had ratified the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC). The FCTC, the first international public health treaty, calls for the implementation of “effective legislative, executive, administrative or other measures … at the appropriate governmental level to protect all persons from exposure to tobacco smoke” (Article 4.1) “in indoor workplaces, public transport, indoor public places and, as appropriate, other public places.” (Article 8).¹⁷ Given the fact that the only truly effective protection from SHS is the creation of 100% smoke‐free environments,¹⁸ in 2003, Venezuela approved a state law (in Monagas¹⁹) and between 2005 and 2006, Argentina passed and regulated two provincial laws (in Santa Fe and Tucumán) to establish 100% smoke‐free public places and workplaces. In March 2006, Uruguay became the first 100% smoke‐free country in the Americas. In response to this movement, one can expect the tobacco industry to accelerate its Accommodation efforts as a way of undermining such effective smoke‐free policies to implement FCTC.     

Media advocacy, tobacco control policy change and teen smoking in Florida

Objective

To assess whether media advocacy activities implemented by the Florida Tobacco Control Program contributed to increased news coverage, policy changes and reductions in youth smoking.

Methods

A content analysis of news coverage appearing in Florida newspapers between 22 April 1998 and 31 December 2001 was conducted, and patterns of coverage before and after the implementation of media advocacy efforts to promote tobacco product placement ordinances were compared. Event history analysis was used to assess whether news coverage increased the probability of enacting these ordinances in 23 of 67 Florida counties and ordinary least square (OLS) regression was used to gauge the effect of these policies on changes in youth smoking prevalence.

Results

The volume of programme‐related news coverage decreased after the onset of media advocacy efforts, but the ratio of coverage about Students Working Against Tobacco (the Florida Tobacco Control Program''s youth advocacy organisation) relative to other topics increased. News coverage contributed to the passage of tobacco product placement ordinances in Florida counties, but these ordinances did not lead to reduced youth smoking.

Conclusion

This study adds to the growing literature supporting the use of media advocacy as a tool to change health‐related policies. However, results suggest caution in choosing policy goals that may or may not influence health behaviour.Many scholars contend that media advocacy—the strategic use of mass media and grassroots community organising to advance health policy—is a powerful strategy to generate news coverage about tobacco control, strengthen tobacco control policy and reduce tobacco use.^1,2,3 The news media bring policy initiatives to public and policymaker agendas^4,5 and frame issues in ways of consequence for health policy.⁶ As a result, the short‐term goals of media advocacy are increasing in the volume of news coverage on a public health issue and framing coverage in ways that support policy solutions.^7,8 This is most easily accomplished when grassroots organisations mobilise to draw the attention of news media to an issue.^7,8,9 News coverage of grassroots efforts puts pressure on policymakers to devise and/or implement specific solutions to public health problems. The intermediate goal of media advocacy is thus to facilitate passage of policies conducive to public health. In the long term, these policies should promote healthier environments and create meaningful changes in health behaviour.^7,8However, at the same time several authors note the shortage of research examining the role of news coverage in changing tobacco control policy and behaviour.^10,11,12 The evidence base supporting media advocacy as a reliable strategy for advancing health policy and changing health behaviour is limited.¹³ Although one large study provides strong evidence that media advocacy contributed to meaningful changes in drunk‐driving behaviour,^14,15,16 efforts to document the effectiveness of media advocacy for tobacco control are limited by constraints of case‐study methodologies for causal inferences,^17,18,19,20 characterised by inconsistent results,^20,21,22 focused on short‐run changes in news overage rather than long‐term policy and behaviour change,^21,22,23 and/or confounded by other components within multifaceted community interventions.^24,25 This study adds to this evidence base by assessing the effects of media advocacy, implemented as part of the Florida Tobacco Control Program (FTCP), on news coverage, tobacco control policy and smoking behaviour in Florida.The FTCP was a comprehensive education, marketing, prevention and enforcement campaign launched in 1998 to reduce smoking among Florida teens. The programme had three primary components: “truth”, a youth‐targeted media campaign; Students Working Against Tobacco (SWAT), a statewide youth anti‐tobacco group, and school‐based tobacco use prevention education.^26,27 Evaluators observed substantial reductions in youth behaviour within 2 years of the programme''s inception, far outpacing national declines,^26,27 and several studies show that the FTCP contributed to these reductions.^27,28,29The FTCP''s media advocacy strategy, a secondary programme component, involved sending press releases and working with reporters to promote FTCP programmes, media training for local SWAT leaders and promoting media events coordinated with local SWAT activities. After the budget crisis between March 1999 and June 1999, when the Florida legislature cut annual programme funding from $70 million to $38.7 million,³⁰ the FTCP initiated local mobilisation and media advocacy efforts to promote Tobacco Product Placement Ordinances (TPPOs). These ordinances, designed to reduce youth smoking by removing the visual and physical availability of cigarettes, would require retailers to place cigarettes and other tobacco products behind the counter. Local SWAT chapters used media advocacy to complement other efforts (community mobilisation, local events and presentations to county officials) in a combined effort to promote TPPOs at the county level.These efforts were seemingly met with success; between July 1999 and March 2002, 23 of 67 Florida counties passed TPPOs. However, the extent to which media advocacy and resulting news coverage contributed to these policies is unknown, and studies have not assessed whether these policies reduced teen smoking. Three conditions would strengthen conclusions about whether media advocacy contributed to the programme''s success. Firstly, programme‐related news coverage should increase after the onset of media advocacy efforts (hypothesis 1). Secondly, counties that received greater news coverage of SWAT events should be more likely to adopt TPPOs (hypothesis 2). Thirdly, counties that adopted TPPOs should witness greater subsequent declines in youth smoking than counties that did not (hypothesis 3). This paper tests these hypotheses by combining county news coverage estimates with county‐specific data on tobacco control policy and smoking behaviour.     

Nicotine pharmacokinetics and subjective effects of three potential reduced exposure products, moist snuff and nicotine lozenge

Objective

To compare nicotine pharmacokinetics and subjective effects of three new smokeless tobacco potential reduced exposure products (PREPs; Ariva, Revel and Stonewall) with moist snuff (Copenhagen) and medicinal nicotine (Commit lozenge).

Methods

10 subjects completed a randomised, within‐subject, crossover study. Subjects used one product for 30 min at each of the five laboratory sessions. Maximal nicotine concentration (C_max) was determined and area under the concentration time curve (AUC) was calculated for a 90‐min period (during use and 60 min after use). Nicotine craving, withdrawal symptoms and ratings of product effects and liking were measured during product use.

Results

Nicotine AUC and C_max were higher for Copenhagen than for any other product (p<0.002) and higher for Commit than for either Ariva or Revel (p<0.001). C_max for Commit was also higher than for Stonewall (p = 0.03). Craving was lowest during use of Copenhagen (p<0.03). Craving during use of Stonewall, Ariva and Commit was lower than during use of Revel (p<0.05). Withdrawal symptom score during use of Copenhagen was lower than during use of Revel (p = 0.009). Copenhagen scores were higher (p<0.005) than all other products in several measures of drug effects and liking (feel good effects, satisfaction, liking and desire for product, and strength of product).

Conclusion

The new smokeless tobacco PREPs result in lower nicotine concentrations and equivalent or lower reductions in subjective measures compared with medicinal nicotine. Since health effects of PREPs are largely unknown, medicinal nicotine should be preferentially encouraged for smokers or smokeless tobacco users wishing to switch to lower‐risk products.Over the past several years, a number of new tobacco products have been introduced, some of which are being marketed, either implicitly or explicitly, as having reduced toxicant exposure or decreased health risks. To assist in evaluating these potential reduced exposure products (PREPs), the United States Food and Drug Administration in 1999 asked the Institute of Medicine to formulate methods and standards by which PREPs could be assessed.¹ More recently, an expert panel was convened to develop guidelines for the evaluation of PREPs on both individual and population levels. Among the topics addressed was human clinical testing, which included recommendations on methods and biomarkers to assess PREPs.^2,3 The recommended evaluation of PREPs included conducting studies on the pharmacokinetic properties of the products and assessing misuse liability by measuring subjective responses to the products and ability of the products to suppress withdrawal.³The use of smokeless tobacco products, in lieu of cigarettes, has been suggested as a promising method by which to reduce tobacco‐related health consequences.⁴ Currently, tobacco companies including major cigarette‐manufacturing companies are test marketing smokeless and spitless tobacco products (eg, Camel Snus by Reynolds American, Taboka by Philip Morris) as a substitute for smoking. Although overall morbidity and mortality associated with the use of moist snuff or chewing tobacco is lower than the risks associated with cigarette smoking, health consequences such as increased rates of oral and pancreatic cancers remain.^5,6 Furthermore, health effects of all forms of smokeless tobacco are not equivalent. For example, an evaluation of the content of tobacco‐specific nitrosamines found large differences between the various forms and brands of smokeless tobacco.⁷ In a human study, a significant decrease in the uptake of tobacco carcinogens has been observed when users of conventional brands of smokeless tobacco switch to Swedish snus.⁸ A comparison of several brands of moist snuff products found significant differences between brands in the amount of unionised (free) nicotine^9,10,11 and in exposure to nicotine and heart rate response after use of a single dose of each product.¹² To accurately assess the potential health effects of a product and the factors associated with consumer use, it is therefore necessary to test each smokeless tobacco product individually, including evaluating the nicotine pharmacokinetics.The purposes of this study were to assess the pharmacokinetics and subjective responses of smokeless tobacco users when using three new PREPs and to compare them with a commonly used brand of moist snuff (Copenhagen) and the medicinal nicotine lozenge (4 mg Commit). The new smokeless tobacco products studied were (1) Ariva, a compressed powdered tobacco lozenge manufactured to contain low tobacco‐specific nitrosamines by Star Scientific marketed for use by smokers when they cannot or choose not to smoke; (2) Stonewall, another compressed powdered low tobacco‐specific nitrosamine tobacco lozenge from Star Scientific marketed as a spit‐free alternative for users of traditional moist snuff smokeless tobacco products; and (3) Revel, a spit‐free smokeless tobacco packet marketed by US Smokeless Tobacco for smokers seeking a discrete alternative to smoking.     

Trends in the prevalence of smoking in Russia during the transition to a market economy

Background

Changes in smoking, particularly an increase in women, were predicted to follow the aggressive campaigns of multinational tobacco companies in transitional Russia. However, such changes have not yet been demonstrated unequivocally.

Objective

To examine smoking trends by gender, education and area of residence.

Methods

Data from 10 rounds of the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (1992–2003), consisting of more than 3000 men and 4000 women in each round, were used. The mean reported ages of first smoking in current smokers were compared between 10‐year birth cohorts.

Results

Between 1992 and 2003, smoking prevalence doubled among women from 6.9% (95% CI 6.3% to 7.6%) to 14.8% (13.9% to 15.7%) and increased among men from 57.4% (95% CI 56.0% to 58.8%) to 62.6% (61.1% to 64.1%). In both sexes, the rise was significantly greater in the least educated, markedly so in women (a doubling vs a 1.5‐fold rise in the most educated). Although prevalence of smoking among women was considerably higher in Moscow and St Petersburg than in rural areas, the dramatic threefold increase in prevalence in rural women was significantly greater than in the main cities (36%, p<0.001). The mean age of first smoking was significantly lower in women born after 1960, but in men it was stable between cohorts.

Conclusions

For the first time, it has been shown unequivocally that smoking among women increased markedly during the transition to a market economy in Russia. The already high prevalence of smoking among men has continued to rise. These changes are likely to reflect the activity of the tobacco industry and provide further evidence of the harms of privatisation. Effective tobacco control policies are urgently needed.The collapse of the Soviet Union led to massive changes in the region''s cigarette industry; state‐owned tobacco monopolies were privatised, and the transnational tobacco companies (TTCs) invested heavily.¹ This led to a massive surge in advertising and a change in distribution strategies, which were shown by tobacco industry documents to be targeted particularly at women, young people and those living in cities, and which were accompanied by a weakening in tobacco control legislation as a result of aggressive lobbying by the industry.^2,3,4,5 Cigarette consumption across the region increased almost exponentially.⁶In Russia alone, the TTCs invested approximately US$1.7 billion between 1992 and 2000, gaining a collective market share of over 60% and increasing by fourfold the production capacity in their newly acquired factories.¹ Various numbers of new brands were introduced; Japan Tobacco International, for example, introduced eight new brands in 1999 alone.⁷ Advertising, which had been non‐existent in Soviet times, escalated massively to promote such brands as an indispensable part of the “western lifestyle”.^8,9 By the mid 1990s, it was estimated that up to 50% of all billboards in Moscow and 75% of plastic bags in Russia carried tobacco advertising;¹⁰ tobacco soon became the product most heavily advertised outdoors, with three major transnationals ranked as the first, second and third heaviest advertisers.¹¹ After the initial targeting of urban areas, industry documents state that the focus was on expanding marketing efforts to other regions of Russia.^12,13 Since the transition, tobacco control policies in Russia have largely been dictated by the tobacco industry. In 1995, for example, a new law on advertising was implemented, based on the industry''s voluntary code of conduct,^14,15 and changes to the federal bill on Limitation of Tobacco Consumption, signed in 2001, were described by the St Petersburg Times as “a textbook demonstration of the lobbyist''s art”.¹⁶Although the tobacco epidemic in men in Russia, as in the rest of the former Soviet Union (FSU), is well established,¹⁷ and smoking rates among men have been high for decades, rates have failed to decline, as models of the tobacco epidemic would predict.^18,19 In women, the tobacco epidemic is at an earlier stage. Survey data show far higher rates of smoking among young than among older women, particularly in countries targeted by the TTCs, which, combined with comparisons with historical data, suggest an increase in smoking rates among women. However, such an increase is yet to be established unequivocally, as previous efforts to examine these and other trends in the tobacco epidemic have been limited by the lack of truly comparable data and the small sample size of repeated surveys.^19,20In addition to the marked changes in the region''s tobacco industry, the need to address these research gaps is underlined by the fact that the accumulated burden of tobacco‐related disease among men <75 years of age in the FSU is the highest in the world.²¹ More than half of Russian men smoke,^19,20 and estimates indicate that smoking presently accounts for nearly half of male deaths and just <4% of female deaths.²² This work will also further efforts to understand the impacts of privatisation of the tobacco industry, which continues to be promoted by the International Monetary Fund.^4,18In this paper, we used data from the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS), a large panel study comprising data collected in 10 rounds between 1992 and 2003, to study trends in smoking and to explore in detail the impact of the entry of TTCs on smoking habits. We hypothesised, based largely on the actions of the privatised tobacco companies now active in Russia, that smoking among women would increase, the age of smoking uptake would fall, and that rates of smoking among women in rural areas would tend to increase towards those already observed in urban areas. In men, we predicted little change in smoking rates, but an increase in educational inequalities in smoking.     

The California Tobacco Control Program's effect on adult smokers: (3) Similar effects for African Americans across states

Objective

To compare trends in African‐American (AA) and non‐Hispanic white (NHW) smoking between states categorised as having three different levels of tobacco control practice in the 1990s.

Setting and participants

Analysis of 1992–3 to 2001–2 Tobacco Use Supplements to the Current Population Survey for differences in adult (20–64 years) daily smoking prevalence for AAs and NHWs across states: California (CA; high cigarette price/comprehensive programme), New York (NY) and New Jersey (NJ; high cigarette price/no comprehensive programme), and tobacco growing states (TGS; low cigarette price/no comprehensive programme).

Results

From 1992–3 to 2001–2, there were large declines in AA smoking across states (2.7–3.8% decrease/year, adjusted for age, income, education, gender; p<0.05). Adjusted NHW smoking prevalence declined significantly only in CA. AA prevalence declined significantly and did not differ across state groups. In all years, in all state groups, adjusted prevalence was either not significantly different or was lower for AAs than for NHWs. More recent cohorts of AAs appeared to have taken up smoking at lower rates than older cohorts.

Conclusion

There were uniformly large declines in AA smoking from 1992–3 to 2001–2 across states, independent of type of tobacco control strategy. Further research is needed into factors associated with smoking declines among AAs.Historically, smoking prevalence and smoking‐related diseases have been higher in the US African‐American (AA) adult population compared with the non‐Hispanic white (NHW) population.^1,2 However, in recent years the prevalence gap between AAs and NHWs has closed.³ Apparently, lower initiation rates among AAs have persisted resulting in lower adult prevalence rates.^4,5 These changes in AA smoking behaviour may be due to an increased response to tobacco control measures, including higher cigarette prices. An important question is how the smoking rates have changed for AAs and for NHWs across states with different tobacco control strategies.The first comprehensive state‐wide tobacco control programme designed to increase social norms against smoking in the US began in California (CA) in 1989.⁶ This programme was unique in spending an average of US$3 per person per year on a public health programme to discourage smoking through the 1990s.⁷ It is the largest and the longest running programme in the US and its components include mass‐media programmes, clean indoor air laws, community and school programmes, and increased excise taxes. Thus, it might be expected that CA would have shown a greater reduction in smoking than states without such a tobacco control programme.New York (NY) and New Jersey (NJ) are adjacent states with a combined population size similar to CA. Neither state supported a major tobacco control programme in the 1990s, but both were similar to CA in the amount of excise tax levied on cigarettes⁸ and had similar high cigarette prices during the 1990s. It might be expected that these states would also have greater reductions in smoking than states with lower excise taxes during the study period.There are six US states that had significant economic activity (>US$100 million/year) from tobacco‐related agriculture during the study period.⁹ These tobacco‐growing states (TGS) were Kentucky, Tennessee, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia and Georgia, which together had a population slightly larger than either CA or NY and NJ. The TGS have consistently had some of the lowest excise taxes in the nation,⁸ and none had a major state‐specific tobacco control programme in the 1990s. There is also evidence that social norms are more supportive of tobacco use in these tobacco‐growing regions.¹⁰We used data from the Tobacco Use Supplements (TUS) to the Current Population Survey (TUS–CPS) from 1992–3 to 2001–2 to examine age‐specific smoking rates and particularly, how reductions in AA initiation previously reported for the 1980s and 1990s might be impacting prevalence rates compared to those among the NHW population. We compared trends for CA, a state with a comprehensive programme designed to increase social norms against smoking, with NY and NJ, states that markedly increased the price of cigarettes during this time period but limited tobacco control activity, and with the TGS, serving as a control group of states with low prices and limited state‐wide tobacco control activities.     

Women's smoking history prior to entering the US Navy: a prospective predictor of performance

Objective

To examine whether women''s tobacco use prior to entering the US Navy is predictive of subsequent career performance. A priori predictions were that smoking at entry into the Navy would be related to early attrition, poorer job performance, more disciplinary problems and lower likelihood of re‐enlistment.

Methods

A prospective cohort analysis of 5487 women entering the US Navy between March 1996 and March 1997 was conducted. Navy attrition/retention and career performance measures, such as time in service, early attrition, type of discharge, misconduct, number of promotions, demotions and unauthorised absences, highest paygrade achieved, and re‐enlistment were examined.

Results

Compared with never smokers, daily smokers at entry into the US Navy had subsequent career outcomes consistently indicating poorer job performance (eg, early attrition prior to serving a full‐term enlistment, more likely to have a less‐than‐honourable discharge, more demotions and desertions, lower achieved paygrade and less likely to re‐enlist). Other types of smokers consistently fell between never and daily smokers on career outcome measures.

Conclusions

For women entering the US Navy, being a daily smoker is a prospective predictor of poorer performance in the Navy. Future research should evaluate the effectiveness of cessation intervention with smoker‐enlistees prior to their entering the Navy, to assess the impact on subsequent career outcomes.More than 435 000 Americans die each year as a result of cigarette smoking. One in every five American deaths are cigarette related, including 30% of all cancer deaths (87% of lung cancer deaths), 21% of coronary heart disease deaths, 18% of stroke deaths and 82% of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease deaths.^1,2 Use of other forms of tobacco (eg, cigars, pipes, snuff or dip) is also associated with significantly elevated morbidity and mortality,³ as is chronic exposure to secondhand smoke.^4,5,6 Smoking also imposes a considerable financial burden on society, with treatment of smoking‐related diseases costing US$50–73 billion/year⁷ and US$584 million in the US Department of Defense.⁸ In both the civilian and military sectors, smoking has been linked to disability and job‐related outcomes, including decreased productivity, increased absenteeism, and long and more frequent work breaks.^8,9Tobacco use is of particular concern to the US Department of Defense because, historically, the military has had higher and heavier rates of tobacco use than civilians.^10,11,12 Although smoking in the military decreased dramatically from 1980 to the mid‐1990s,¹³ there was a significant increase from 1998 to 2002, marking the first increase in two decades.¹⁰ Past‐month cigarette smoking continues to exceed “Healthy People 2010” objectives of 12%, with 33.8% of military personnel smoking in the past month in 2002.¹⁰Previous research indicates that cigarette smoking in the military has adverse effects on personnel health, performance, physical fitness and attrition.^14,15,16 Numerous studies have concluded that there are negative relationships between smoking and success in combat training among military personnel.^17,18 Smokers tend to exercise less and perform more poorly on military physical fitness tests.^14,19,20 In addition, studies show high rates of smoking persist even after discharge from military service.^21,22 A recent concern among military health officials is the skyrocketing smoking rates among soldiers in Iraq, the post‐deployment implications of which are not yet known.Another adverse effect of smoking that has recently gained attention is early attrition from military service. First‐term attrition is one of the most serious and costly personnel problems faced by the US military.²³ A study of a large number of US Air Force recruits conducted by Klesges and colleagues¹⁵ found smoking to be the best single predictor of early discharge over a 12‐month period, with smoking associated with US$130 million/year in excess training costs extrapolated across all the military services. The study sample of Klesges et al¹⁵ was predominantly men and did not report the effects of smoking separately for men and women, so it might be questioned whether the smoking and early attrition effects would hold for women as well as men.This study examined an all‐female cohort of women entering the US Navy between March 1996 and March 1997. Self‐reported cigarette smoking just prior to entering the Navy was examined as a prospective predictor of performance in the Navy over a possible 7–8 year follow‐up period. Groups based on self‐reported smoking history as “daily smokers,” non‐daily “other smokers” and “never smokers” at entry into the Navy were examined to prospectively assess the relationship between smoking history reported just prior to entering the Navy and subsequent career performance.     

Economic effect of a smoke-free law in a tobacco-growing community

Objective

To determine whether Lexington, Kentucky''s smoke‐free law affected employment and business closures in restaurants and bars. On 27 April 2004, Lexington‐Fayette County implemented a comprehensive ordinance prohibiting smoking in all public buildings, including bars and restaurants. Lexington is located in a major tobacco‐growing state that has the highest smoking rate in the US and was the first Kentucky community to become smoke‐free.

Design

A fixed‐effects time series design to estimate the effect of the smoke‐free law on employment and ordinary least squares to estimate the effect on business openings and closings.

Subjects and settings

All restaurants and bars in Lexington‐Fayette County, Kentucky and the six contiguous counties.

Main outcome measures

ES‐202 employment data from the Kentucky Workforce Cabinet; Business opening/closings data from the Lexington‐Fayette County Health Department, Environmental Division.

Results

A positive and significant relationship was observed between the smoke‐free legislation and restaurant employment, but no significant relationship was observed with bar employment. No relationship was observed between the law''s implementation and employment in contiguous counties nor between the smoke‐free law and business openings or closures in alcohol‐serving and or non‐alcohol‐serving businesses.

Conclusions

No important economic harm stemmed from the smoke‐free legislation over the period studied, despite the fact that Lexington is located in a tobacco‐producing state with higher‐than‐average smoking rates.Many studies have shown that smoke‐free laws implemented in US cities are not harmful to business activity. For example, one paper shows that New York City''s 1995 Smoke‐Free Air Act had no adverse effects on restaurant employment growth, which instead was three times higher than the rest of the state from 1993 to 1997.¹ Another study examined sales tax receipts in 15 cities with and without ordinances banning smoking in restaurants from 1986 to 1993, and found that smoke‐free ordinances did not negatively affect restaurant sales.² Similarly, Sciacca and Eckrem³ found that gross restaurant sales in Flagstaff, Arizona, increased between 16% and 25.8% per business 1 year after a smoke‐free ordinance was implemented. Other studies focused on bar and tourism receipts have shown no adverse effects of smoking ordinances on revenues.^4,5,6 A recent study of the El Paso, Texas, US smoke‐free ordinance, the strongest smoke‐free law in that state, found no changes in restaurant or bar revenues on the basis of a comparison of sales tax and mixed‐beverage tax data over the 12 years preceding and 1 year after the law was implemented.⁷ Scollo and Lal⁸ and Scollo et al,⁹ provide a comprehensive review of this literature.On 27 April, 2004, after an unsuccessful legal challenge, Lexington‐Fayette County, Kentucky, implemented a 100% smoke‐free ordinance, prohibiting smoking in all public buildings, including restaurants, bars, bowling alleys and other businesses. Currently, about 37% of the US population is protected by local or state‐wide smoke‐free laws.¹⁰ However, tobacco‐growing states typically have weak tobacco control laws and provide less public protection from secondhand smoke.¹¹ Lexington‐Fayette County was the first community in Kentucky, a national leader in burley tobacco production¹² and cigarette smoking,¹³ to enact such legislation. The purpose of our study is to determine whether the smoke‐free law affected: (1) employment in restaurants and bars in either Lexington‐Fayette or its contiguous counties or (2) the rate of business closures in food and drinking establishments in Lexington‐Fayette County.     

Smoking cessation attempts among adolescent smokers: a systematic review of prevalence studies

Objective

To synthesise estimates of the prevalence of cessation attempts among adolescent smokers generally, and according to age and level of cigarette consumption.

Data sources

PubMed, ERIC, and PsychInfo databases and Internet searches of central data collection agencies.

Study selection

National population‐based studies published in English between 1990 and 2005 reporting the prevalence, frequency and/or duration of cessation attempts among smokers aged ⩾10 to <20 years.

Data extraction

Five reviewers determined inclusion criteria for full‐text reports. One reviewer extracted data on the design, population characteristics and results from the reports.

Data synthesis

In total, 52 studies conformed to the inclusion criteria. The marked heterogeneity that characterised the study populations and survey questions precluded a meta‐analysis. Among adolescent current smokers, the median 6‐month, 12‐month and lifetime cessation attempt prevalence was 58% (range: 22–73%), 68% (range 43–92%) and 71% (range 28–84%), respectively. More than half had made multiple attempts. Among smokers who had attempted cessation, the median prevalence of relapse was 34, 56, 89 and 92% within 1 week, 1 month, 6 months, and 1 year, respectively, following the longest attempt. Younger (age<16 years) and non‐daily smokers experienced a similar or higher prevalence of cessation attempts compared with older (age ⩾16 years) or daily smokers. Moreover, the prevalence of relapse by 6 months following the longest cessation attempt was similar across age and smoking frequency.

Conclusions

The high prevalence of cessation attempts and relapse among adolescent smokers extends to young adolescents and non‐daily smokers. Cessation surveillance, research and program development should be more inclusive of these subgroups.An estimated 150 million adolescents worldwide use tobacco. Approximately half of these young smokers will die of tobacco‐related diseases in later life.¹ Adolescent smokers are also subject to more immediate health consequences, such as respiratory and non‐respiratory effects,^2,3 changes in serum cholesterol⁴ and nicotine dependence and withdrawal.⁵ Although preventing the initiation of smoking remains a major goal of tobacco control, prevention programs directed at adolescents have shown limited effectiveness to date.⁶ Moreover, once adolescents start smoking, the impact of prevention programs, whether on experimental or regular smokers, is small and inconsistent across studies.^7,8,9,10 It is estimated that adolescent smokers who reach a consumption level of at least 100 cigarettes will continue to smoke for another 16–20 years.¹¹ Even brief periods of smoking cessation during adolescence have been associated with positive subjective health changes, such as improved respiratory health and a general sense of feeling healthier, fitter and more energetic.^12,13Among adolescents in the early stages of smoking onset, alternating periods of smoking and abstinence are common.^14,15 Yet longitudinal studies show that only 3–12% of adolescent daily or regular smokers^{16,17,18,19,20} and 10–46% of adolescent non‐daily or occasional smokers^18,20,21,22 no longer smoke 1–3 years later. This suggests that the likelihood of achieving abstinence, although generally low, is greater if a cessation attempt occurs at lower levels of consumption. Other reports, however, provide evidence that even adolescent smokers in the early stages of smoking onset experience difficulty attempting cessation.²³ Indeed, symptoms of nicotine dependence, which make cessation difficult, can develop soon after smoking initiation.^5,24,25Recent reviews advocate the intensification of efforts to develop and implement smoking cessation programs for adolescents.^26,27 Correspondingly, initiatives have been established with the goal that every adolescent tobacco user have access to appropriate and effective cessation interventions by the year 2010.²⁸ In addition, in the US, the goal of increasing cessation attempts among adolescent smokers has been incorporated into a set of nationwide public health goals.²⁹ This has created a critical need to document the prevalence of cessation attempts among adolescent smokers. Therefore, the present study summarises the measures used to estimate attempts at smoking cessation and quantifies the prevalence, frequency and duration of cessation attempts among adolescent smokers, generally, and according to age and level of cigarette consumption.     

Dependence of tar, nicotine and carbon monoxide yields on physical parameters: implications for exposure, emissions control and monitoring

Objective

To estimate the extent to which tar, nicotine and carbon monoxide (TNCO) yields are dependent on cigarette design features such as burn rate, filter ventilation and paper porosity, and to consider the implications for human exposure and the regulation of TNCO emissions. A related aim is to determine whether accurate prediction of TNCO yields is possible using only simple physical parameters.

Design and methods

Datasets that include quantitative design parameters as well as measurements of TNCO yields collected under standard conditions with vents unblocked (International Organization for Standardization) and under intense conditions with vents fully blocked (Health Canada) were compiled from the literature (primarily US and UK brands). Forward stepwise multiple regression analysis is used to assess the relative importance of each design feature in explaining variability in the observed emissions. Using randomly split data subsets, multiple linear regression is used to model the dependence of TNCO yields on design features in the training subset and validated against the test subset. Tar and carbon monoxide correlate with many of the particulate‐ and volatile‐phase toxins in smoke, and brand values normalised to nicotine yield are used as surrogate measures of exposure within the bounds defined by non‐intense and intense smoking protocols.

Results and conclusions

Filter ventilation is the dominant control on measured TNCO emissions, but other factors including burn rate, amount of tobacco and paper porosity also contribute. Yields are predictable with reasonable accuracy and precision using only measured physical parameters. Surrogate exposure indicators suggest that filter ventilation does not lead to any reduction in exposure and that highly ventilated (low‐yield) brands may actually increase exposure to the more volatile toxins.Major reductions in tar, nicotine and carbon monoxide (TNCO) emissions as measured by smoking machines have been achieved by modifying cigarette design, thus enabling manufacturers to comply with regulations,¹ although the strategy of setting limits on emissions and publishing TNCO yields obtained under the International Organization for Standardization (ISO) smoking conditions is seriously questioned among public health practitioners.² All aspects of cigarette design, including filter, paper wrap, tobacco filler and additives, can be modified to influence machine‐measured yields to varying degrees,³ but little information is available on how each feature contributes to overall yield reduction, at least outside the tobacco industry.One design feature, namely filter ventilation (V^f), has been singled out for particular criticism on health grounds, because it reduces apparent emissions, yet can be overcome wittingly or unwittingly by blocking the vents with the fingers or lips,¹ and the smoker typically engages in other forms of compensatory behaviour to replace the deficiency in nicotine delivery. The literature largely assumes that filter ventilation is the only (or at least dominant) design feature that has been used by the tobacco industry to reduce yields.⁴ It is important to test this assumption in order to justify future research on the nature and extent of counteractive and compensatory behaviour. If other, less‐easily defeated design features make significant contributions to reducing yields, then by the same token their potential for reducing exposure to smoke emissions should not be overlooked. There is presently a dearth of useful quantitative information to inform policy on the relevance of these factors to emissions control and disclosure. The purposes of this paper are to (1) assess the relative contributions of filter ventilation and other design features to overall reductions in machine‐measured TNCO yields, (2) consider whether reduction in yields translates to reduction in exposure to toxins and (3) test whether the relationship between physical parameters and TNCO emissions can be used to generate adequate models for predicting the latter from the former. This may have relevance for the monitoring and surveillance of products in the absence of a laboratory with the capacity for chemical testing of emissions.Filter ventilation involves inserting small holes in the filter tip of a cigarette that act as vents allowing the introduction of external air during puffing so that a lower proportion of the puff volume is drawn at the burning coal.³ The effect is to reduce all emissions due to burning tobacco, although the effect is greatest on carbon monoxide (CO).^3,5,6 While filter ventilation is effective in reducing machine‐measured yields, the publication of such data can be misleading, as, no allowance is made for vent blocking or other modified behaviour by smokers in their quest for a desired level of nicotine delivery.^7,8 Because smokers of “low‐yield” cigarettes might gain a false sense of reduced harm,^2,9 there has been a vigorous debate with tobacco industry scientists on the evidence for vent blocking and the degree to which it applies in real‐world smoking.^10,11 Perhaps more relevant is strong evidence for the use of a range of strategies by smokers to compensate for the lower nicotine yield.² What is not clear is how ventilation and compensation act to modify exposure. Raw‐yield data are uninformative, but if these inter‐relationships were better understood, ventilation and all other design features could be assessed objectively in the context of reducing the smoker''s exposure to toxins.Cigarette design is constrained by the need to maximise the commercial potential of a brand while complying with legal limits on yields where these exist. Smoke is an aerosol of more than 4000 distinct components distributed among particulates and the gas phase. “Tar” is the collective term used for compounds in particulate form, CO is dominantly gaseous, whereas nicotine is partitioned between particulates and the gas phase.¹² These components are generated through the processes of distillation and pyrolysis (thermal decomposition) of tobacco and the oxidation of char during the heating of tobacco. Controlling the process to generate only those components sought by the smoker (such as nicotine, flavour, texture) is unrealistic; hence design strategies are used to maximise the delivery of these components at the mouth end of the cigarette while keeping the delivery of toxic components within specified limits.The undesirable components of smoke are widely understood by the public to be TNCO,⁹ yet there is consensus among the scientific community that most of the harmful effects are primarily attributable to specific components, typically volatile organic compounds, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), tobacco‐specific nitrosamines and the heavy metals.^13,14 Tar is a complex entity that contains several major carcinogens (including the PAHs), and the term is used in this study as the weight of particles trapped on a filter after a machine smoking test, less its nicotine and water content (nicotine‐free dry particulate matter, NFDPM). The concentrations of the toxins in tar may vary because of several factors; some are derived from the leaf but most are generated by the combustion process, which in turn is strongly influenced by cigarette design and smoking behaviour. Nicotine is not regarded as highly toxic, whereas CO is implicated in cardiovascular disease.The usefulness of these measured parameters is not in their toxicities but rather in the ways in which they can efficiently reflect other aspects of emission. Nicotine concentration will largely determine the way in which a cigarette is smoked in order to satisfy the smoker''s addiction. Measured tar correlates linearly with many important toxins that tend to partition into the particulate phase, including the important PAHs. This has been observed in many studies and is also the case in the datasets used in this study. CO correlates usefully with those toxins that partition into the vapour phase, again borne out by linear correlations in these datasets. Many of those toxins that partition between particulate and vapour phases can also be modelled by multiple regression. Overall, most of the major tobacco smoke toxins in the “Hoffmann list”,¹⁵ with the exception of the nitrosamines and some other nitrogenous compounds, correlate significantly with measured tar, CO or both.Over the latter half of the 20th century, the sales‐weighted average tar yield of US cigarettes reduced to about half that of the 1950s.¹⁶ The more important design features responsible for this reduction include new tobacco blends (although blending is more about generating flavours than the control of emissions³), the cut of tobacco in terms of strands per inch, the weight of tobacco used and dimensions of the cigarette, and use of reconstituted tobaccos (particularly expanded tobaccos, some of which contain additives to control combustion). High porosity and permeability of wrap paper facilitate ventilation with external air. This reduces the proportion of a puff derived from the burning coal, thus reducing all yields. In addition, vapour‐phase components such as CO may diffuse outwards, further reducing their yields. Additives are used in paper manufacturing to increase burn rates, thus reducing measured yields.¹⁷ Filters, typically of cellulose acetate, extract particulate phases from the aerosol and reduce tar and nicotine with various degrees of efficiency, although they have little effect on volatile emissions such as CO. Filter ventilation reduces the draw on the burning coal, thus reducing the emissions and diluting the smoke with external air. This is probably the most effective single design feature for reducing machine‐measured TNCO emissions, although the effects on the vapour and particulate phases differ and hence reductions in TNCO yields are not necessarily uniform.The approach taken in this study is to isolate the effect of filter ventilation from other design features by statistically comparing emissions data for cigarettes smoked with filter vents unblocked with data for the same cigarettes smoked with vents fully blocked. A similar approach was used in assessing the contributions of tobacco nicotine and filter ventilation to machine‐measured yields in the US, Canada and the UK,¹⁸ although the present study differs in focusing only on the physical controls. Studies of modern cigarettes from different geographical regions have highlighted the very strong negative correlation between yields of tar and other emissions with degree of filter ventilation.^4,19 Vent blocking would be expected to destroy this correlation unless other design features act in concert with filter ventilation to reduce yields.The relationship between machine‐measured yield and human exposure to smoke toxins is not simple and yield data can be a highly misleading guide to exposure.²⁰ Machines cannot replicate human smoking and there is very good evidence that smokers of highly ventilated cigarettes engage in other behaviours in order to satisfy their need for a given delivery of nicotine, such as puffing more frequently, taking deeper puffs (facilitated by ventilation), smoking more cigarettes, etc,^8,21 thus exposing themselves to the higher levels of emissions associated with unventilated brands. Furthermore, the lighter taste of ventilated brands encourages a false sense of security and reduces the motivation to quit.² These are important factors to consider when interpreting machine‐measured yields in terms of exposure to tobacco smoke toxins.     

Impact of smoking images in magazines on the smoking attitudes and intentions of youth: an experimental investigation

Objective

To determine the effect of magazine incidental smoking imagery on youths'' smoking intentions.

Methods

A magazine was developed incorporating photographs of smokers (Smoking Magazine). A second version of the magazine (Non‐smoking Magazine) included these photographs with the tobacco paraphernalia digitally erased. Equal numbers of smokers and non‐smokers aged 14–17 years (n = 357) were randomly assigned to look through one version of the magazine and then asked a series of questions.

Results

Smokers made more unprompted mention of smoking imagery than non‐smokers after viewing Smoking Magazine (52% vs 34%; p<0.05). Smokers viewing Smoking Magazine were more likely to report an urge to smoke (54% vs 40%; p<0.05). Female non‐smokers who viewed Smoking Magazine were more likely than those who viewed Non‐smoking Magazine to state a future intention to smoke (13% vs 0%; p<0.05). Female smokers were more attracted to the male models appearing in Smoking Magazine than Non‐smoking Magazine (49% vs 24%; p<0.05) and the opposite was true for female non‐smokers (28% vs 52%; p<0.05). Female smokers were also marginally more likely to desire looking like the female models in Smoking Magazine (64% vs 46%; p = 0.06) but no difference was observed in the non‐smoking females (46% vs 46%). Male smokers and non‐smokers did not differ in their responses by magazine type.

Conclusions

Incidental positive smoking imagery in magazines can generate the same sorts of consumer effects attributed to advertising in general, including tobacco advertising. Sex specific results of our study may be explained by the choice of smoking images used.With a view to reducing tobacco related harm, a number of countries around the world have implemented comprehensive advertising and sponsorship bans of tobacco in accordance with the World Health Organization''s Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC). Even with comprehensive tobacco control legislation, loopholes remain that can be exploited by the tobacco industry to circumvent comprehensive advertising restrictions. For example, product placements in movies and television programmes popular with adolescents are a noted tactic of the tobacco industry.¹ Furthermore, incidental depictions of tobacco in popular media, although not necessarily instigated by the tobacco industry, can serve to counter restrictions on advertising. Smoking depictions within youth oriented advertisements for non‐tobacco products are common, being used as a device by advertisers to focus on the lifestyle and image of the user, rather than on the intrinsic value or merits of the product itself.² Incidental images of smoking are also common in editorial and feature components of youth oriented entertainment media, including movies, television, magazines and the internet. Although social determinants such as having parents, older siblings and peers who smoke are the best predictors of smoking initiation in youth,³ portrayals of smoking in popular media appear to contribute by presenting socially attractive images and inflating the perception of smoking prevalence.^2,4,5Studies consistently suggest that incidental smoking is depicted far more commonly than is normal within the actual population, and that the majority of depictions are associated with popular and desirable role models with positive attributes such as fame, attractiveness, sexiness, sophistication and glamour.^6,7,8 For instance an analysis of popular Hollywood movies in the late 1990s suggested that one in two heroes smoke, including 80% of leading male characters.⁸ In the early 1990s an audit of Australian youth oriented magazines suggested that photographs featuring smoking were “infrequent” (one depiction per 147 pages). An increase of 12% in smoking depictions was noted between 1990 and 1993 in the period after the introduction of the complete tobacco advertising ban but, as this increase was non‐significant, natural variation could not be discounted.⁹ However, a similar audit of magazines conducted a decade later suggested that far from being infrequent, depictions of smoking were commonplace: 96% of a sample of youth oriented magazines included at least one depiction of incidental smoking (average 3.5 per magazine; one per 50.3 pages), with 97% of these depictions being favourable.¹⁰ Although the methodologies differed between the two studies, it appears that the tobacco advertising ban in Australia was followed by an increase rather than decrease in prevalence of smoking portrayals in magazines.There is clear evidence that exposure to positive portrayals of smoking in movies and on television increases adolescents'' positive attitudes towards smoking, the likelihood of smoking initiation, and imitation of modelled smoking actions.^11,12 However, research investigating the impact of incidental portrayals of tobacco use in magazines is sparse. Amos and colleagues¹³ assessed adolescents'' perceptions of photographs of models using tobacco products and compared these to adolescents'' perceptions of identical photographs but with the tobacco paraphernalia digitally removed. They found that the presence of a cigarette affected how the model in a photograph was perceived: when tobacco products were present, models were associated with “drug taking,” “wildness” and being “depressed,” and to a lesser extent being “vain,” “tarty” and “posers.” Without the smoking paraphernalia the same models were perceived as being more “healthy,” “rich,” “nice,” “fashionable,” “slim” and “attractive.” Although traits such as “druggy,” “wild” and “tarty” may appear to be negative associations, smokers sampled in the study were found to be more drawn to such traits than non‐smokers, and were found to rate themselves less negatively in terms of these traits than non‐smokers. The authors concluded that although young smokers and non‐smokers associated the same attributes to the smoking models, smokers identified more strongly with these attributes than did non‐smokers, and hence the smoking imagery served to positively reinforce the self identity of young smokers. In a later complementary study,¹⁴ Amos and her colleagues conducted focus groups with young smokers and found that smoking imagery in magazines helped reinforce positive perceptions of smoking as attractive, sociable and reassuring thereby reinforcing young smokers'' own identities. Furthermore the lack of obvious vested interests in incidental smoking portrayals meant that such were potentially more powerful than tobacco advertising imagery.The present study aims to extend the studies of Amos and colleagues by using a randomised controlled trial to assess the impact of smoking images in magazines on smoking and non‐smoking youth, and particularly their intentions for future smoking. We hypothesised that positive smoking imagery in a youth oriented magazine would:

• lessen young smokers'' future intentions to quit;
• increase non‐smokers'' future intentions to take up smoking;
• increase young people''s perceptions of the prevalence of smoking;
• increase young smokers'' urge to smoke while reading the magazine; and
• increase young smokers'' positive perceptions of the depicted models but decrease young non‐smokers'' positive perceptions of the depicted models.

     

Occasional tobacco use among young adult women: a longitudinal analysis of smoking transitions

Objective

To describe prospective transitions in smoking among young adult women who were occasional smokers, and the factors associated with these transitions, by comparing sociodemographic, lifestyle and psychosocial characteristics of those who changed from occasional smoking to daily smoking, non‐daily smoking or non‐smoking.

Design

Longitudinal study with mailed questionnaires.

Participants/setting

Women aged 18–23 years in 1996 were randomly selected from the Medicare Australia database, which provides the most complete list of people in Australia.

Main outcome measures

Self‐reported smoking status at survey 1 (1996), survey 2 (2000) and survey 3 (2003), for 7510 participants who took part in all three surveys and who had complete data on smoking at survey 1.

Results

At survey 1, 28% (n = 2120) of all respondents reported smoking. Among the smokers, 39% (n = 829) were occasional smokers. Of these occasional smokers, 18% changed to daily smoking at survey 2 and remained daily smokers at survey 3; 12% reported non‐daily smoking at surveys 2 and 3; 36% stopped smoking and remained non‐smokers; and 33% moved between daily, non‐daily and non‐smoking over surveys 2 and 3. Over the whole 7‐year period, approximately half stopped smoking, one‐quarter changed to daily smoking and the remainder reported non‐daily smoking. Multivariate analysis identified that a history of daily smoking for ⩾6 months at baseline predicted reversion to daily smoking at follow‐up. Being single and using illicit drugs were also associated with change to daily or non‐daily smoking, whereas alcohol consumption was associated with non‐daily smoking only. Compared with stopping smoking, the change to daily smoking was significantly associated with having intermediate educational qualifications. No significant associations with depression and perceived stress were observed in the multivariate analysis.

Conclusions

Interventions to reduce the prevalence of smoking among young women need to take account of occasional smokers, who made up 39% of all smokers in this study. Targeted interventions to prevent the escalation to daily smoking and to promote cessation should allow for the social context of smoking with alcohol and other drugs, and social and environmental influences in vocational education and occupational settings.The transition to young adulthood is a critical period in establishing patterns of tobacco use, with the prevalence of smoking increasing through to the mid‐1920s.^1,2 It is a time when there are opportunities to prevent smoking and to promote cessation among those who may be amenable to quitting before they become committed smokers.³ The tobacco industry also sees the passage to young adulthood as an opportune time—but for the adoption and consolidation of smoking habits.⁴Among adolescents and young adults, occasional smoking is often regarded as a transitional, experimental phase preceding daily smoking, and rates of occasional smoking are generally higher among younger adults than among older adults.^5,6,7 Occasional smoking in late adolescence has been associated with an eightfold increase in the probability of becoming a daily smoker after 3 years.⁸A number of longitudinal studies have tracked changes in smoking behaviour among occasional smokers over periods of up to 2 years.^3,5,7,9 These studies, which have mostly focused on adolescents or older adults, showed that up to one‐quarter of baseline occasional smokers became daily smokers in the follow‐up periods. Furthermore, a substantial proportion (>40%) of occasional smokers continue to smoke occasionally, while around one‐third stop smoking.^3,5,9 Studies on college students have found that over the course of 4 years, up to 20% of baseline occasional smokers became daily smokers.^10,11Little is known about what differentiates occasional smokers who become daily smokers from those who continue to smoke occasionally and from those who stop smoking. In a study of 45–69‐year‐old smokers in Sweden, Lindstrom et al⁷ examined the sociodemographic and psychosocial characteristics of baseline occasional smokers who became daily smokers, who remained occasional smokers or who stopped smoking at the 1 year follow‐up. Those who stopped or remained occasional smokers were younger, unmarried, highly educated and were snuff consumers to a greater extent than the reference population (baseline daily smokers, ex smokers and never smokers), and those who became daily smokers had poorer psychosocial resources.⁷ A study examining changes in occasional smoking among college students found that positive beliefs about the functional value of smoking and the use of smoking to control negative effects predicted a change to daily smoking.¹¹This paper focuses on the longitudinal patterns of tobacco use among women who were occasional smokers in early adulthood. In addition to the well‐established health risks of smoking, women who smoke are also at risk of decreased fertility, increased risk of complications during pregnancy, miscarriage, stillbirth and neonatal deaths, and lower birth weight babies.¹²Data from a large, prospective, population‐based study were used to describe patterns of smoking behaviour among baseline occasional smokers over a 7‐year period. Our method provided an opportunity to examine the characteristics of young women who progressed from occasional smoking to daily smoking, those who continued occasional tobacco use and those who stopped smoking.