共查询到18条相似文献,搜索用时 265 毫秒
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选取地质构造、水文地质、底板隔水层和开采条件4个方面的17个因子作为煤层底板突水危险性的评价指标。采用层次分析法(AHP)建立煤层底板突水危险性的评价指标体系,通过构造判断矩阵、层次排序与一致性检验提取影响煤层底板突水的主控因素。运用Fisher判别理论,以国内一些采煤工作面底板突水实测数据作为训练样本,建立了基于AHP-Fisher判别的煤层底板突水危险性评价模型,采用回代估计法检验模型的有效性,回判的误判率为0。工程应用表明,该评价模型所得结果与实际情况较为相符,具有良好的实用性和有效性。 相似文献
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在我国华北型石炭—二叠系煤田中,煤层底板灰岩岩溶突水现象尤为突出。为准确地评价煤层底板灰岩岩溶突水危险性,防治煤矿水害事故,实现承压水体上煤层安全开采。基于未知测度-集对分析理论,选用含水层厚度、单位涌水量、充水含水层渗透性、水压、断层影响因子、含水层厚度、含水层岩性组合特征以及底板破坏深度8个指标评价煤层底板灰岩岩溶突水危险性。采用有序二元比较量化法和区间数模糊决策矩阵EA-TOPSIS排序模型分别确定煤层底板灰岩岩溶突水主控因素权重。在此基础之上,基于冲突证据理论将二者进行耦合,得到煤层底板灰岩岩溶突水主控因素组合权重,保证了对动态模型指标相对重要性的有效评价。基于未知测度-集对分析理论,构建单指标直线型未知测度函数及非直线型未知测度函数,并以新汶煤田煤层开采为例,将30个监测点处实测的8个指标值代入,建立多指标综合测度矩阵。引入"置信度"评价准则判定样本数据X_i所属的危险性等级。并通过集对分析,进一步表征新汶煤田煤层开采过程中煤层底板灰岩岩溶突水风险总体态势。研究表明,评价结果与矿山实际情况相吻合。在此基础之上,依据搜集的大量华北煤矿突水案例,以其中典型的15个为例,将建立的模型推广到整个华北煤田底板突水危险性的评价。通过与矿井实际突水情况对比可以发现,模型确定的矿井突水危险性等级与实际相吻合,表明该模型对于评价整个华北煤田底板灰岩岩溶突水危险性具有一定的适宜性。 相似文献
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基于Fisher判别的煤层底板突水量预测研究 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
针对煤层底板突水的主要影响因素,综合考虑水源、水压、隔水层、底板采动导水断裂带深度、断层等因素的影响,基于Fisher判别分析理论,利用国内一些采煤工作面底板突水资料作为训练样本,建立了煤层底板突水预测的距离判别分析模型。工程应用表明,该模型结果与实际情况吻合良好,说明该模型在煤层底板突水预测中具有良好的实用性和有效性。 相似文献
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为了从理论上对煤层底板突水问题进行分析,选取对底板突水影响最大的有无含水层、水压、隔水层厚度、底板采动破坏深度及断层落差等作为基本判别因子,选取国内15个有代表性的采煤工作面底板突水资料作为训练样本,利用距离判别分析理论,建立了煤层底板突水量预测的距离判别分析模型.用所建立的模型对4个待检验的底板突水案例进行了分析,与实际情况吻合良好,计算结果与最小二乘支持向量机(SVM)、人工神经网络(ANN)等方法所得到的结果一致或更好. 相似文献
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煤层底板承压水突出是发生水害事故的原因之一,要减少该类事故的发生,需对底板突水危险性进行准确评价。为保障里必井田承压水带压开采的安全进行,基于煤层底板突水研究理论分析,采用常规突水系数法和等效厚度突水系数法,分别对里必井田内3#煤和15#煤的奥灰水突水危险性进行了研究。研究发现,奥灰水对于3#煤的开采影响不大,但在局部构造及陷落柱发育地段及采区东北部区域仍存在一定的突水可能性;奥灰水对15#煤开采具有较大威胁,大部分区域具有较大突水危险性。等效岩层厚度法计算的突水系数考虑了不同性质岩层的岩石强度和阻水能力,计算更接近生产实际,结果更可靠;且在对突水系数法进一步优化后,其评价的结果可以更精确。 相似文献
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煤矿开采存在底板带压条件下,能否安全开采,最常用的评价方法是突水系数法。但由于煤层底板突水影响的因素多,在水文地质复杂的情况下,突水系数法还存在一定的局限性。综合考虑水压、隔水层底板厚度、岩性组合及特征、导升高度、煤岩层产状、构造等自然条件,以及工作面的采长、开采后的底板破坏深度等人为因素对煤层底板隔水能力的影响,采用有效阻水系数法评价了太原西峪煤矿9号煤开采的间接底板奥陶系峰峰组岩溶水突水危险性,其评价结果与实际情况对比分析表明,有效阻水系数法评价更加合理,是复杂水文地质条件煤层底板突水安全性评价的有效方法。 相似文献
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The complex hydrogeological conditions of China’s coal fields and the frequent water inrush accidents there seriously threaten the safe mining of coal. A new risk evaluation model for water inrushes from seam floors was constructed by combining the established evaluation index system with set pair analysis (SPA), thereby integrating quantitative and qualitative indexes. The resultant model reflects both the factors affecting water inrush from the seam floor and the uncertainty in the parameter values for those factors. To demonstrate the value of this model, the risk of water inrush from the seam floor was assessed for the working face of a mine in Tongzi county, Guizhou province, China. The prediction obtained from the model conformed to the actual conditions. Moreover, the methodology provides a basis for water inrush risk assessment from seam floors. 相似文献
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Risk Assessment of Water Inrush in an Underground Coal Mine Based on GIS and Fuzzy Set Theory 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
A systematic method was developed to evaluate the risk of water inrush through a coal seam floor using the geographic information system (GIS) and the fuzzy set theory. The main geological and hydrogeological indicators that control water inrush were first considered using a fuzzy mathematics approach, in which fractal analysis was carried out to quantify the fault’s characteristics. The degree of membership was determined using GIS, the weight of every factor was considered by calculating the entropy in accordance with Shannon’s information entropy theory, and the level of risk of the evaluated object was derived using the maximum membership principle. The approach was validated by a case study at the Chensilou mine in Henan Province, China, where the aquifers that underlie an exploitable coal seam, II2, were made impermeable by grouting. Data from Nov. 2014 to April 2016 shows that the risk of water inrush was reduced in Panel 2517 of the II2 coal seam, that there were no serious disturbances in this panel and no groundwater inrush through the floor. This method can be a powerful tool for systematically assessing the risk of water inrush through the floor, since the influence of several factors can be quantitatively considered in accordance with the geological and mining conditions. 相似文献