上海人口郊区化与新城发展动态分析

跟踪研究2000-2010年期间上海人口郊区化态势,以及嘉定、松江、青浦、南桥、临港等5个郊区新城的人口集聚状况,发现上海人口分布变动模式既有延续性也有新变化。具体而言,单中心扩张的基本模式仍未被打破,但城、郊人口密度差异明显缩小,多中心城市结构初露端倪;外来人口郊区化仍然比户籍人口郊区化走得更快、更远,但随着核心城服务业发展,外来人口重新集聚,使得外来人口分布出现"环间塌陷"现象;规划重点发展的新城人口增长势头仍不突出,以城区为核心的多层次、组团式、紧凑式的合理城市空间体系还有待发展完善。     

科学的规划百年的幸事缺陷的规划百年的伤疤--上海松江新城总体规划的启示

上海正在努力构筑特大型国际经济中心城市的城镇体系,上海市政府提出:未来的上海城镇发展,将切实改变中心城区蔓延扩张、郊区分散布点的格局,构筑中心城-新城-中心镇-一般集镇梯度辐射、层次分明、各具特色、功效互补的城镇体系;十五期间,上海将率先重点建设"一城九镇"(一城即松江新城),增强郊区城镇对中心城区的"反磁力".到2005年,郊区的城镇化水平从现有的45%提高到60%;其中松江新城建成区的面积将达到约36平方公里,人口规模25万以上.     

对上海新一轮城市总体规划的几点分析

针对十几年来上海经济、社会、人口与城市发展遇到的问题和出现的新特点 ,为了实现产业结构与布局的调整 ,实现中心城区人口的有效疏散和郊区城市化的快速发展 ,建设现代化的国际性大都市 ,上海制定并通过了新一轮的城市总体规划。与 1986年的城市规划相比 ,新规划有以下几个重要特点。城镇体系的等级结构与布局趋于合理新的城镇体系则由中心城区———郊区新城 (区、县城 )———中心镇———一般镇四级层次组成 ,增加了中等城市规模的郊区新城和小城市规模的中心镇 ,等级体系更趋完善 ,空间布局也趋向合理。结合产业结构与布局调整和郊区…     

快速城市化背景下上海市人口与就业分布及其演化的研究

近10多年上海的人口高速增长离不开全国快速城镇化的背景,上海人口增长主要是外来人口,并且总体上呈现近郊地区快速增长、人口向中外环间及外环外地区蔓延的态势。同时,就业岗位在中心城的集聚特征更显突出。进一步研究发现,中心城及周边地区范围内居住和岗位的高度重合,该范围内职住相对平衡。研究认为,如果要建设更宜居的城市,减少区域交通通勤,就要在鼓励人口增长地区增加就业岗位的配置,即如果坚持中心城控制人口、郊区进一步吸纳人口的方针,就要同步考虑就业岗位的调控,鼓励岗位向郊区的集聚,尤其是鼓励办公服务等三次产业类型向郊区的集聚,才能实现城市多中心空间结构设想。     

国外大都市郊区化与郊区城镇的演变

○大都市中心城人口、制造业、商业、办公业依次向郊区扩散,为郊区城镇可持续发展提供了强大的动力 自从本世纪以来,西方国家大都市郊区化迅速发展成为大都市地区的一个显著特点,郊区化的迅速发展促进了郊区小城镇迅速发展。总括起来西方大都市经历了四次从城市中心向郊外扩散的浪潮: 第一次浪潮是人口郊区化,即中心城人口向郊区迁移的过程。如美国从1948年至1980年中心城人口占大都市人口的比重由64％降至43％。一般认为形成人口郊区化的主要原因有:①实际收入的增加;②通勤费用的下降;③中心城市存在许多问题;④跟随企业迁到郊区;⑤公共政策的影响等。 第二次浪潮是制造业的郊区化,即中心城的制造业向郊区迁移的过程。如美国1948～1980年间中心城的制造业就业的比重由67％下降至48％。随着卡车的改     

上海大都市地区空间结构优化的政策路径探析——基于人口分布情景的分析方法

通过分析人口分布和城市空间结构以及城市空间政策之间的关系,从人口分布视角探讨大都市地区空间结构优化的路径.人口持续向中心城和边缘地区集聚,新城发展缓慢,是上海上一轮总体规划实施以来表现出的突出矛盾.面对人口进一步增长趋势,如何有效促进新城发展、缓解中心城增长压力,是"上海2040"空间战略研究迫切需要关注的重要课题.围绕人口分布优化的空间政策研究是上海空间结构调整的关键,通过模拟"上海2040"边缘承载、廊道承载和新城承载三种人口分布情景,分析产业结构和布局调整、轨道交通建设、住房供给和公共服务设施配置等空间政策的适应性,并从构建人口分布的目标导向、时间维度的行动框架、差异化的分区引导、空间政策聚焦与协同、阶段评估与动态应对五个方面,探讨上海城市空间结构优化的思路.     

试点城镇建设对上海郊区城镇发展的启示

“十五”期间，上海郊区实施重点突破、有序推进的城镇发展方针，努力构筑特大型国际经济中心城市的城镇体系，松江、朱家角、安亭、高桥等“一城九镇”成为重点推进发展的试点城镇。五年来，试点城镇的建设有了显著的进展。回顾总结它们的实践经验，对试点城镇乃至上海郊区城镇未来的发展建设，都有着十分积极的意义。     

上海市城市空间布局优化与综合交通发展方式转型研究

城市的发展历程证明,城市空间布局优化与交通发展是一个相互影响、相互促进的过程,当城市发展到一定的阶段后,交通系统简单的扩容增能已不能适应城市的拓展需要,更难以有效引导城市空间布局。立足上海市城市空间布局和交通发展互动关系,从都市圈、市域、中心城三个层面,结合人口布局、产业布局、城镇布局的现状和规划情况,在研究分析了城市空间布局优化方向的基础上,提出了综合交通发展方式转型的重点与路径。     

从国际大都市的空间形态看上海的人口与发展

上海的人口与发展问题需要从建设现代化国际大都市的目标进行战略思考。本文从上海与长三角大都市连绵带的空间形态展望上海未来20～30年间的人口发展,提出三点思考:一是从现代化大都市的经济能量来看上海的人口,无论就全市域的人口密度、人口和经济占全国的规模、以及城市化水平的提高来看,相比纽约、东京等大城市都有待提高。二是从现代化大都市的人口分布来看,上海人口的布局需要大幅度降低外环线以内城市中心的密度,而增加郊区城市化地区的密度。三是从现代化大都市的人口素质来看,应该认识到由城市交通、环境质量等反映出来的所谓“城市病”并不与城市规模正相关,而是与城市管理与人口素质正相关。提高城市发展的质量,关键是要通过良好的规划与管理减少环境不友好的城市空间、减少环境不友好的社会行为、转化环境不友好的城市人口、控制环境不友好的城市制度。     

化解城市拥堵:促进多中心空间发展之交通视角

"人口疏解"有其产生的深刻背景和历史意义,并在上海多轮总规的规划理念中得以体现,也根据不同发展阶段特征制定了相应政策和措施。其效果是显著的,包括核心区人口密度下降、人均居住面积提高、城市人口接纳能力提升等多方面,当然也带来交通拥堵和出行不便等问题。在分析政策现象的基础上,深入分析了中心城与近郊区、中心城与中远郊新城之间不同的空间关系和交通联系特征,并基于中心城单中心集聚向多轴化就业空间形态演变的分析,认为规划有一定改善的空间,提出沿轨道交通走廊布局就业中心、提升客运走廊的服务容量和效率,来促进"多中心"空间结构的形成,并构建新城自身交通体系,持续提升新城区位和独立性。     

推进我国人口城市化进程的若干建议

针对当前我国人口城市化进程严重滞后于工业化进程 ,滞后于经济社会的发展的现实 ,提出有效推进我国人口城市化进程的若干建议 :一是全社会要统一对人口城市化重大意义的认识 ,并愿采取措施主动地推进我国的人口城市化进程 ;二是通过制度创新和深化改革 ,切实消除计划经济年代形成的制约人口城市化发展的制度屏障 ,尽快建立社会主义市场经济体制 ;三是选择适合中国国情的人口城市化道路 ,确定符合中国国情的人口城市化速度 ;四是加快城市劳动密集型产业和第三产业发展 ;五是有效提高农村人口和劳动力的文化素质 ;六是采取有效措施促进就业 ,提高城乡就业率。     

Urban growth effects on rural population, export and service employment: evidence from eastern France

This paper examines how the spatial pattern of urban growth in functional economic regions influences the interplay of rural export employment, rural services employment, and population change in rural areas. Using an extension of the Boarnet’s model (Papers in Regional Science 73:135–153, 1994), we find that urban spread effects to rural areas in France are more likely than urban backwash effects, and that spatial urban (both dynamic and static) externalities affect rural population and employment growth. In the functional economic regions where the urban core is declining and the urban fringe is expanding, urban population growth involves an increase in rural export employment, and larger change in service employment favors rural population growth. However, urban export job growth reduces the growth in rural service jobs and expanding urban service jobs reduce rural export jobs, suggesting that expanding urban employment opportunities draws employees away from proximate rural communities. Conversely, where both urban core and fringe are growing, we observe an urban spread effect from the urban export sector to rural services—an export base multiplier effect with a spatial dimension—and from urban population growth to rural service employment.

基于GIS的人口反演及空间归位初探

人口数据是城乡规划管理的基础。现行人口数据因统计部门、口径、方式的不同而有较大差异,特别是人口数据不能在空间上展现,难以满足城乡规划及管理的相关需求。在GIS支持下,根据一定空间范围内的基础设施利用量与人口数量成正比的关系,反演城市人口和研究其空间分布特征,对城乡规划及城市管理具有重要作用。     

Analysis of urban-rural population dynamics of China: a multiregional life table approach

Multiregional life tables at various ages developed by Rogers and Willekins are used to examine the urban and rural dynamics of population (fertility and out-migration expectations) in China. Period-cohort survival rates are used in the calculation of survival probability. A unit radix is assumed in the calculation of the life table for each age. The life expectation of the female population a birth is 73.59 years in urban areas and 72.46 in rural areas. Male life expectancy is 69.73 years in urban areas and 58.99 in rural areas. Life expectancies are higher for rural males aged over 20 years and females aged over 60 years because of urban and rural differences in out-migration and mortality rates. Life expectancy for the rural males over age 60 is 16.55 and for urban males over age 60 is 16.00. Rural females over age 70 have a life expectancy of 12.25 years and urban females over age 70 have a life expectancy of 12.04 years. In the calculation of fertility expectations, the occurrence-exposure fertility rates of period cohorts are estimated from the forward fertility rates of period cohorts by means of forward mortality rates. The occurrence-exposure fertility rate of life table cohort y is calculated from the occurrence-exposure fertility rates of period cohorts r (y) and r(y + 1). A female born in an urban area is expected to have 1.82 children in an urban area and .06 children in a rural area. A female born in a rural area is expected to have 2.10 children in a rural area and .35 children in an urban area. Rural population has a much higher net reproduction rate than urban population. In the calculation of the net migraproduction (spatial out-migration expectation), forward out-migration rates of period cohorts are used for estimation of occurrence-exposure out-migration rates of period cohorts. Mortality rates are included in the calculation of population at risk. Out-migration rates are modified to account for nonsurvival migrants using mortality rates of the destination region. The occurrence-exposure out-migration rate of the life table cohort y is estimated similarly as the fertility rates of life table cohorts. A female born in an urban area is likely to make .0451 migrations out of the region; a female born in a rural region is likely to make .3491 out-migrations. A male born in an urban area is likely to make .0475 out-migrations; a male born in a rural area is likely to make .2903 out-migrations.     

Can urban sprawl lead to urban people governing rural areas? Evidence from the Dywity Commune,Poland

Currently, new suburban settlements are often being localized in rural areas. As a result of this, rural areas have been taking on various urban functions, especially residential ones. Intense migration has been observed, especially in rural areas neighboring large cities. The urban population has been settling in the most attractive residential localizations, and thus creating new housing developments with a high population density, characterized by urban type of construction. Such a process, both favorable and inevitable, leads to other effects, including changes among the local authorities and thus, local policy. The main purpose of this article was to answer the question of whether new urban functions in rural areas resulting from urban sprawl can lead to urban people governing rural areas? If the answer is positive, what other consequences may this bring? The aim was accomplished through the careful examination of a selected area of Poland. The particular value of this study is that its structure and suggested scenarios of possible effects can help local authorities governing areas neighboring cities create suitable spatial plans that include residential areas.     

城镇化新形势下的城乡(人口)划分标准讨论

城市和乡村的划分以及城乡人口的统计是我国城镇化快速发展阶段的基础性工作。科学的城乡(人口)划分标准对于我国城镇化相关研究和政策制定具有重大意义,对于城市人口和用地发展规模预测、空间布局安排以及经济社会发展有非常重要的实践价值。一直以来统计部门都是以"城乡行政地域"和(或)"城乡实体地域"为基础来划分城乡(人口),并在此基础上对城乡划分标准进行不断的调整和改进。实际上城镇化本身的内涵非常广泛,除了空间上的城镇化转变,还包括人口的生活方式和生活环境的转变,这在城乡(人口)划分上应该给予重视,以顺应转型时期城镇化发展的诉求。考虑到我国城镇化发展的双重性特点,以及居委会和村委会在人口构成、职能、土地权属、行政关系和人口职业等方面的城乡差异特征,建议固化城乡(人口)划分标准,以"居委会和村委会所辖地域(常住人口)"作为划分依据,这样今后不需要频繁改动城乡划分口径,需要做的只是改进居委会的设置程序和标准,完善"村改居"相关的农村集体经济资产处置、农村优惠政策延续和村(居)民社会福利以及土地权属转变等相关政策和制度体系。新的简易城乡(人口)划分标准也有利于真实反映转型时期我国城镇化数量的提升和质量的改善。     

Rethinking Patterns of South African Urban Growth: 1911–2001

This article discusses how South Africa’s population has shifted from being predominantly rural to predominantly urban since 1911. Using nearly 100 years of census data, urbanization trends are discussed and the relative percentage levels of the urban population living in the various settlement categories is examined. The nine largest centres are home to a disproportionately large share of the national urban population, relative to international norms, and have held this position for nearly 100 years. Despite this, it is noteworthy that population growth is taking place in absolute terms in all settlement categories and in rural areas. These growth patterns need to be seen within the context of national spatial development and urban development priorities.     

Potential health benefit of reducing household solid fuel use in Shanxi province, China

Indoor air pollution from solid fuel use has severe health effects. 60% of the Chinese population lives in rural areas, where most people rely on solid fuels for cooking and heating. We estimate exposure by combining information on the amount of time spent in different microenvironments and estimates of the particle concentrations (PM(10)) in these environments. According to our estimates, 70% of the exposure experienced by the rural population is due to indoor air pollution (IAP). The urban coal using population experience a 17% increase in exposure from IAP. We apply Monte Carlo simulations to quantify variability and uncertainty in the exposure, morbidity and mortality estimates. We find that applying Monte Carlo simulations reduces the estimated uncertainty compared to analytical methods based on approximate distributions and the central limit theorem. We find that annually about 4% (geometric S.D. sigma(g), 3.2) and 35% (sigma(g), 2.6) of the deaths in the urban and rural populations, respectively, could be avoided by switching to clean fuels. Upgrading the stoves in rural areas to the standard found in urban areas is estimated to reduce mortality by 23% (sigma(g), 3.1). Moreover, we estimate that chronic respiratory illness (CRI) in children can be reduced by, respectively, about 9% (sigma(g), 2.5) and 80% (sigma(g) 1.9) by switching to clean fuels in the urban and rural areas. Upgrading the stoves in rural areas is estimated to reduce CRI in children with about 58% (sigma(g) 2.3). For adults the reduction in CRI was estimated to be 6% (sigma(g) 2.4) and 45% (sigma(g) 1.8) for the urban and rural population following a fuel switch, and 31% (sigma(g) 2.4) for the rural population from stove improvements. Contrary to our expectations we find small gender differences in exposure. We ascribe that to comparable kitchen and living area concentrations and similar indoor occupation times for the genders. Young children and the elderly spend the most time indoors, and have the highest daily exposure in the coal using population. The rural population experience higher exposure than the urban population, even though the outdoor air is significantly cleaner in rural areas.     

改革开放以来中国城镇化的演进历程、特征与方向--基于人口、经济与制度视角

城镇化的演进历程深受人口结构、经济模式和制度安排的影响。通过对改革开放以来中国人口结构和经济模式的概览性考察,指出人口结构在未来10年内将发生人口机会窗口关闭和“人口拐点”来临两大结构性转变,经济模式正从出口和投资驱动转变为创新和内需驱动。结合政治经济体制的改革历程,在回顾中国城镇化进程的基础上,指出从双轨渐进改革下的“自下而上城镇化”,到市场经济体制改革下的“流动城镇化”,再到全面深化改革下的“新型城镇化”,城乡之间的制度性壁垒逐渐被打破,城乡居民权利不断趋于均等化,异质的城乡二元结构不断向同质的城乡一元结构演进;进而指出,中国城镇化进程未来有陷入“流动中的停滞”状态的趋势,并提出针对性的政筵建议。     

居民点重构——经济发达地区的一种城市化模式

学术界通常都认为城市化是人口由农村向城市集中的过程。实际上 ,城市化是一个连续、渐进的过程 ,近年来在经济发达地区出现的农村居民点的整合与重构 ,使农民的生活方式逐步实现由农村向城市的转化。这种人口由自然村向中心村镇的集中也应看作是城市化的一种形式。在一些发达地区出现的中心村建设的热点现象值得人们关注