Forests,fuelwood and livelihoods—energy transition patterns in eastern Indonesia

The central thesis of the energy ladder model is a unidirectional transition from primitive to advance fuel with increased affluence of households. Although now largely discredited, this assumption remains a foundation of laissez-faire policies that anticipate energy transition resulting spontaneous forest recovery with economic development. Our results suggest that such policies can undermine broader policy objectives and actually worsen forest conditions in rural Indonesia. Based on a case study of forest margin communities in eastern Indonesia, we demonstrate that fuel subsidy reform did little to reduce rural household demand for fuelwood, while dramatically increasing fuelwood demand for processing agricultural products. Our results show how household decisions related to fuel sources are affected by non-economic considerations and external factors, such as opportunities to sell fuelwood. We argue that policy interventions that encourage energy transition of households do not necessarily improve forest conditions, as household fuelwood use may be a symptom, rather than a driver of deforestation and forest degradation. Thus policies to improve forest conditions should focus more on addressing the market environment of forest-margin communities, providing energy alternatives to small industries that are often the larger consumers of fuelwood.     

The persistence of energy poverty: A dynamic probit analysis

This paper contributes to the growing literature on energy poverty in developing countries. We use a dynamic probit estimator on three rounds of panel data from urban Ethiopia to estimate a model of the probability of being energy poor and to investigate the persistence of energy poverty. We also study the impact of energy price inflation, which Ethiopia experienced during 2007–2009, on energy use and energy poverty. We find strong evidence of state dependence in energy poverty. A household that is energy poor in one round is up to 16% more likely to be energy poor in the subsequent round. Dynamic probit regression results also suggest that an increase in the price of kerosene – the most important fuel for the urban poor – drives households into energy poverty. A fractional response estimator for panel data, which estimates the impact of energy prices on the proportion of energy obtained from clean sources, also supports the finding on the adverse impact of energy price inflation. Households responded to the significant rise in the price of kerosene by consuming a large amount of charcoal, which has been documented to have serious environmental, climate, and health consequences. Our results have significant implications for policies formulated to reduce energy poverty, conserve biomass resources, and promote energy transition in developing countries.     

The use and determinants of solar energy by Sub-Saharan African households

Using data from Ethiopia’s, Tanzania’s, and Uganda’s Living Standards Measurement Surveys (LSMS), this article explains the factors affecting the choice of solar energy for domestic purposes. Econometric results reveal that household demographics such as the household size and its composition including the number of adult males, the number of children under 15 years, the level of education of the household head and household wealth play major roles in the choice of solar energy. It clearly establishes that, with the increase in the household head’s education level, the probability of using solar energy increases progressively. Wealthier families are more likely to use solar energy compared to relatively poorer families. Ethiopia and Tanzania are found to have a higher probability of adopting solar energy compared to Uganda. Energy policy should focus on augmenting the level of education and income for scaling up the adoption of solar energy.     

Tenancy and energy choice for lighting and cooking: Evidence from Ghana

This study uses a national household living standard survey and bivariate probit to assess how variations in tenure mode influence the choice of energy sources for lighting and cooking. Results indicate that tenure mode has heterogeneous effect on the lighting and cooking energy choice. Relative to owner-occupied unit, renters use other fuel (firewood, candle, and crop residue) for lighting and use modern (LPG), transition (charcoal), and other fuel (electricity, crop residue, kerosene, sawdust, and, animal waste) for cooking. By dividing the sample into income quartiles, the results showed that renters in the fourth quartiles use electricity and LPG (modern fuel) but less likely to use dirty fuel (fuelwood) for cooking. Tenancy agreement, ownership right and preferences, and the structure of a building are the plausible mechanism that may be accounting for the heterogeneity in the adoption of lighting and cooking energy sources. The empirical implications of the results are discussed.     

Fuel switching in Harare: An almost ideal demand system approach

In urban areas several energy choices are available and the amount of (a given type of) fuel consumed is based on complex household decision processes. This paper analyzes urban fuel (particularly firewood) demand in an energy mix context by means of an Almost Ideal Demand System based on a survey carried out among 500 households in Harare in 2003. Using a multi-stage budgeting approach, the model estimates the share of energy in total household expenditure and the shares of firewood, electricity and kerosene in total energy expenditure. Using the model results simulations show that the main policy handles to reduce the demand for firewood and to mitigate environmental degradation such as deforestation include decreasing prices of alternative fuels, notably kerosene. Moreover, in the long run sound economic policy will positively impact on the energy budget whereas education and the degree of electrification will contribute to a reduction of the use of firewood.     

Effect of fuelwood scarcity and socio-economic factors on household bio-based energy use and energy substitution in rural Ethiopia

In Ethiopia biomass is predominantly utilized for household energy needs often using inefficient rudimentary stoves which cause adverse environmental and welfare effects. This paper examined the contribution of biomass resources to rural household energy use and energy substitution. The analysis applied the ordinary least square in the final stage estimation of fuelwood and overall biomass energy consumption by using predicted shadow prices. The paper used Tobit model to estimate charcoal and agricultural fuel consumption due to the presence of censoring. An increase in fuelwood shadow price was associated with reduced household fuelwood consumption with price elasticity of −0.38. The cross price elasticity between fuelwood and agricultural fuels revealed no evidence of energy substitution, which conforms to the findings of previous studies. Household access to electricity was associated with lower household biomass energy utilization but kerosene was not fuelwood substitute. Household energy use conformed to the ‘fuel stacking’ or ‘multiple fuel use’ concept, but households preferred modern energy options as welfare increased in areas where modern energy is available. This suggests that there is a promising prospect for fuel-transition, but access to modern energy and economic growth have key roles. The findings suggest that a concerted policy effort is required that would help diversify rural livelihoods, improve living standards and encourage economic growth, encourage inter-fuel substitution through improved modern energy access and afforestation to increase biomass supply.     

Explaining the diffusion of renewable energy technology in developing countries

In this paper we study the diffusion of non-hydro renewable energy (NHRE) technologies for electricity generation across 108 developing countries between 1980 and 2010. We use two-stage estimation methods to identify the determinants behind the choice of whether or not to adopt NHRE as well as about the amount of electricity to produce from renewable energy sources. We find that NHRE diffusion accelerates with the implementation of economic and regulatory instruments, higher per capita income and schooling levels, and stable, democratic regimes. In contrast, increasing openness and aid, institutional and strategic policy support programs, growth of electricity consumption, and high fossil fuel production appear to delay NHRE diffusion. Furthermore, we find that a diverse energy mix increases the probability of NHRE adoption. Finally, we find a weak support for a positive influence of the Kyoto Protocol on NHRE diffusion and no evidence for any influence resulting from financial sector development.     

Household energy consumption patterns in agricultural zone,pastoral zone and agro-pastoral transitional zone in eastern part of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Despite the rapid development in fossil fuel, biomass is still the main energy resource in rural China. However, the research on household energy consumption on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is limited. We investigated the differences in household energy consumption pattern, the influencing factors of fuel type choice, and the willingness to use clean energy in agricultural, pastoral and agro-pastoral transitional zones in eastern part of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Information was collected through Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA) and Physical Monitoring (PM). We found that biomass was the main energy resource in pastoral regions while fossil energy was the main fuel in agricultural regions. Energy consumption per capita in pastoral regions was higher than that in agricultural regions in our study area, and annual household energy consumption in pastoral regions was much higher than the provincial average. Altitude, livelihood and education level were main factors affecting domestic fuel type choice, while altitude and household size were two factors determining energy consumption per capita. The use of biomass as fuel could have negative influence on the material cycle in ecosystem and affect the carbon budget on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Householders were willing to use clean energy and most interviewees chose electricity as their favorite fuel type. Therefore, the modern utilization of biomass and the exploration of renewable energy are promising in future energy development in eastern part of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. However, energy transition might be constrained by poor local transportation and traditional consumption habit of indigenous community.     

Renewables in the energy transition: Evidence on solar home systems and lighting fuel choice in Kenya

We study the determinants of households' choices of lighting fuels in Kenya including the option of using solar home systems (SHS). Our goal is to add new evidence on the factors that influence the introduction and adoption of decentralized and less carbon-intensive energy sources in developing countries, and, more generally, to the empirical debate on the energy ladder. We capitalize on a unique representative survey on energy use and sources from Kenya, one of the few relatively well-established SHS markets in the world. Our results reveal some very interesting patterns of the fuel transition in the context of lighting fuel choices. While we find clear evidence for a cross-sectional energy ladder, the income threshold for modern fuel use – including solar energy use – to move beyond traditional and transitional fuels is very high. Income and education turn out to be key determinants of SHS adoption, but we also find a very pronounced effect of SHS clustering, i.e. the prevalence of SHS in the proximity of a potential user increases the likelihood of adoption. In addition, we do not find a negative correlation between grid access and SHS use.     

Green investment: Trends and determinants

This paper fills a gap in the macroeconomic literature on renewable sources of energy. It offers a definition of green investment and analyzes the trends and determinants of this investment over the last decade for 35 advanced and emerging countries. We use a new multi-country historical dataset and find that green investment has become a key driver of the energy sector and that its rapid growth is now mostly driven by China. Our econometric results suggest that green investment is boosted by economic growth, a sound financial system conducive to low interest rates, and high fuel prices. We also find that some policy interventions, such as the introduction of carbon pricing schemes or “feed-in-tariffs,” which require use of “green” energy, have a positive and significant impact on green investment. Other interventions, such as biofuel support, do not appear to be associated with higher green investment.     

Variations in energy use by Indian households: An analysis of micro level data

In this paper an attempt has been made to determine the factors that influence individual's decision to choose a particular energy carrier, viz., firewood, LPG, kerosene, and electricity. From the economic perspective, an individual's propensity to choose a particular energy carrier is determined by his/her economic status, carrier availability and prices, household size and other regional and demographic variables. For this reason, the choice of selecting a carrier for a service (e.g. cooking) is expected to vary among individuals. To assess this, the study uses the 1999–2000 National Sample Survey (NSS) data covering over 118,000 households and analyses the rural and urban areas separately. A multinomial logit selection model has been applied for estimating the energy carrier choice decision. The results show that individuals are influenced by per capita income, household size, educational status of the head of the household, occupation of the household members, in addition to other household location characteristics. It is found that the monthly household income and household size have nonlinear relationship on the probability of choosing a fuel.     

Evaluation of cooking energy cost,efficiency, impact on air pollution and policy in Nigeria

This study evaluated the cooking energy costs and efficiencies, the air pollution impacts of cooking energy consumption and the impact of the energy policy in the cooking energy sector in Nigeria. Water boiling and cooking experiments using the common cooking energy sources (fuel wood, kerosene, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and electricity) and common food items (water, yam and beans) were carried out. Energy surveys were carried out to determine the cooking energy use patterns in the urban and rural areas. It was found that fuel wood is the least expensive cooking energy source and LPG is the most expensive. Energy use efficiencies for boiling water were estimated at 25%, 46%, 73%, 79%, 66% and 90% for fuel wood, kerosene, gas, electric immersion coil, electric heating coil and electric hot plate, respectively. Energy intensity was found to be a comparative measure of energy efficiency. The impacts of air pollution from household cooking suggested a possibility of significant air pollutants contribution to the ambient environment using any of the energy carriers considered except electricity. The cooking energy use patterns showed that fuel wood is the predominant energy source for cooking in the rural areas while kerosene is the predominant energy source in the urban areas, revealing that the energy policy in the country had made no impact in the cooking energy sector. Recommendations for improving the energy supply situation were given and for removing the barriers that prevent the implementation of the recommendations.     

Explaining the non-implementation of health-improving policies related to solid fuels use in South Africa

In 1998, the South African government developed an energy policy that focused on a pro-poor agenda. Its objectives included addressing the health impacts of solid fuel use in households. Fourteen years later, and with household electrification at over 80%, millions still use solid fuels and yet ambitious policy objectives to address this situation are not being met. Using three theoretical frameworks; institutional capacity, policy inheritance and the symbolic use of policy, this paper analyses the reasons why household energy policy objectives related to solid fuels and health, as stated in the 1998 South African energy policy, have not been implemented. The results of the analysis show that the symbolic use of policy, including meanings of objects used for meeting policy objectives is the most critical explanation. The paper illustrates that political and historical contexts are critical to understanding policy outcomes in developing and transition countries which often experience tensions between implementing what may seem as objective policies, and that matches their political and historical experiences and aspirations. We recommend that policy analysts in the energy sector complement currently common methods to include political contexts of policy development and implementation in order to better understand why policy makers chose to implement certain policies over others.     

Sources of change in the demand for energy by Indonesian households: 1980–2002

This paper describes the energy transition in Indonesia and examines the determinants of energy demand, by fuel. The key innovation of this paper is the documentation of how these relationships have evolved over time. We present a new method to combine econometric analysis and index decomposition analysis to examine household energy transition. This approach also allows us to consider a broad range of demographic and structural factors, while providing a clear and concise representation of our findings. We find that the composite indices mask important underlying patterns. In particular, our results indicate that energy transition in Indonesia cannot be confidently attributed to any one index. Rather, it has been driven predominantly by the triple interaction of demographics, income growth, and change in demand/supply parameters. Our findings point to the importance of utilizing time-series data in studying both the characteristics and determinants of energy transition in developing countries.     

Solar box cookers: Towards a decentralized sustainable energy strategy for sub-Saharan Africa

The continued economic decline of sub-Saharan Africa, and the African energy crisis in particular, have received considerable attention in recent literature. Little attention, however, has been given to the assessment of solar power as an environmentally sound and economically viable energy strategy. Considering the increasing fuelwood scarcity and debt incurred through petroleum imports, solar energy provides a welcome alternative to traditional biomass and fossil fuel energy sources. Research and development in solar energy has concentrated primarily on highly technical, capital intensive applications, leaving possibilities for small scale utilizations unexplored. This paper argues for small scale, decentralized development of solar power as a sustainable household fuel source for sub-Saharan Africa. Domestic cooking constitutes more than 60% of total energy use in the region and consumes scarce time, labor, income, and natural resources. Thus, the appropriate management of fuel and energy resources in the residential sector is crucial for significant development. This paper examines the economic viability of solar box cookers (SBCs), their costs and benefits both on the household and community levels, and how they may contribute to economic development. In arguing for the implementation of SBCs, policy implications in terms of financing and a comprehensive energy plan geared towards sustainable development are also presented.     

Prioritizing driving factors of household carbon emissions: An application of the LASSO model with survey data

The identification of factors that influence household carbon emissions (HCEs)—a key driver of the national emissions, is an important step in achieving more accurate predictions, as well as better interpretation and more effective policy intervention. In this paper, based on survey data, we first calculated the direct, indirect, and total HCEs per capita for 37,620 households in China in the year of 2012, 2014 and 2016. Then we introduced a LASSO regression model to determine the main driving factors of HCEs and ranked the factors according to their importance. The use of the LASSO regression model addresses the issues of multicollinearity and over-fitting. It also provides two practical benefits: minimizing the number of influencing factors for forecasting and giving more flexibility in policy design. The results showed that fuel type and dwelling type can explain more than 70% of the direct HCEs, while income, urban or rural residency, and fuel type are the three most important influencing factors of the indirect HCEs. To mitigate HCEs while China will continue its rapid urbanization and fast consumption growth, the government needs to provide affordable clean energy, improve the efficiency of household energy consumption, promote green and low-carbon economic recovery, and guide low-carbon lifestyles.     

Determinants of household energy consumption in India

Improving access to affordable modern energy is critical to improving living standards in the developing world. Rural households in India, in particular, are almost entirely reliant on traditional biomass for their basic cooking energy needs. This has adverse effects on their health and productivity, and also causes environmental degradation. This study presents a new generic modelling approach, with a focus on cooking fuel choices, and explores response strategies for energy poverty eradication in India. The modelling approach analyzes the determinants of fuel consumption choices for heterogeneous household groups, incorporating the effect of income distributions and traditionally more intangible factors such as preferences and private discount rates. The methodology is used to develop alternate future scenarios that explore how different policy mechanisms such as fuel subsidies and micro-financing can enhance the diffusion of modern, more efficient, energy sources in India.     

Clean fuel-saving technology adoption in urban Ethiopia

The heavy dependence and inefficient utilization of biomass resources have contributed to the depletion of forest resources in Ethiopia, while the use of traditional cooking technology has also been linked to indoor air pollution and poor health. In response, the government and other institutions have pushed for the adoption of new cooking technologies, with limited success. This research examines the reasons underpinning the lack of widespread adoption, via duration analysis, correlating the speed of adoption of Mirte and Lakech cook stoves – two examples of new cooking technologies – in urban Ethiopia to socioeconomic factors. According to the duration analysis, adoption rates have steadily increased over time, while economic factors, such as product price, household income and household wealth, are, for the most part, important determinants of adoption behavior. There is also evidence that the availability of substitute technologies tends to hinder adoption, and that there are large regional differences in adoption rates, suggesting the need for a more detailed regional analysis of adoption decisions.     

Changing energy profiles and consumption patterns following electrification in five rural villages, South Africa

Following the democratic transition in South Africa in the early 1990s the government has implemented a widespread electrification programme, as well as introduced a free basic electricity allowance as a means of poverty alleviation. Yet there are limited longitudinal studies on the impacts of the introduction of electricity on the patterns of household energy use, and even more so in the neglected rural sector. This study reports on the patterns of household energy use in five rural settlements in 1991 and again in 2002. Results indicate a changing pattern of energy use for lighting and powering entertainment appliances, more specifically from dry-cell batteries and paraffin to electricity. Yet for thermal needs, most notably cooking, fuelwood has remained the most widespread fuel, and the amount used per month has not changed, despite increasing scarcity of wood in the local environment. There has been an increase in the proportion of households purchasing fuelwood as opposed to collecting their own. Overall, the mean total number of fuel types used per household has increased, indicating that electricity is simply viewed as an additional energy, rather than an alternative. Yet, electricity accounted for approximately 60% of expenditure on energy sources in 2002, despite the government's policy of a free basic allowance of 5–6 kWh per month. This has implications for energy supply costing, as well as the poverty alleviation dimensions of the whole programme.