考虑认知不确定性的多状态系统Birnbaum重要度分析方法

重要度分析是辨识复杂系统可靠性薄弱环节的有效手段。但现有的重要度分析方法均假设系统及组成部件的退化规律是完全精确已知的,即系统和部件的退化或失效模型是可以被精确估计的。针对实际工程中由于小样本、失效数据不足且难以获取、失效或退化机理不明确等因素所产生的退化模型参数认知不确定性,提出一种考虑认知不确定性的多状态系统Birnbaum重要度分析新方法,利用证据理论和马尔科夫模型分别开展认知不确定性量化和多状态系统可靠性建模,从而有效地量化部件退化参数的认知不确定性对系统可靠度和重要度的影响。该方法被应用在重型数控车床的刀具进给控制系统的可靠性分析中,以阐明认知不确定性对部件重要度分析和排序的作用与影响。     

复杂机械系统可靠度分配方法研究

建立了多状态多失效模式混合决策理论,实现了多状态多失效模式机械系统可靠度分配。首先,建立混合图,刻画了单元同一等级不同模式失效的混合关系;建立混合算子,确定单元多状态多失效模式可靠度分配决策。然后,建立串联系统可靠度决策模型,把系统可靠度分配给系统各状态。该模型比传统只考虑故障、完好两状态的系统可靠度分配方法更符合工程实际情况,考虑部件的完好、故障隐患、功能退化和完全失效等多种状态,能有效避免忽略故障隐患、功能退化两种状态的危害性。最后,通过受电弓系统多状态多失效模式可靠度分配的算例,验证该理论方法的可行性、有效性。     

考虑多模相关的机械系统可靠度优化模型

相关性是复杂机械系统的固有特性,也是影响和制约机械可靠性研究工作的重大难题。以往的可靠性研究多数以独立性假设为前提,文中从结构系统二阶窄界限理论出发,研究和分析在考虑多模式失效相关时的机械系统可靠性,详细探讨如何进行可靠度上下界限值的优化,并将优化后的模型用于分析实际机械系统的可靠度,结果证明优化后的二阶界限模型在机械系统可靠性分析、预测和研究中有很强的针对性和有效性。     

载荷相关结构系统的可靠性分析

以失效相关性为主要研究对象,阐述共因载荷与元件强度的随机特性对元件失效相关程度、元件联合失效及联合可靠概率之间的影响,揭示元件强度统计独立时由系统共因载荷引发元件失效相关的基本规律.针对载荷全相关、强度独立同分布的并联、串联、表决系统,分析元件失效相关对系统可靠度计算的影响,同时提出载荷全相关结构系统可靠度求解的新方法.得出元件安全裕度随机变量协方差矩阵后,通过正交化方法简化系统可靠度计算,该方法有利于为载荷相关结构系统可靠性设计及优化提供更为全面的参考信息.     

结构系统疲劳失效相关机理与可靠性模型

失效相关普遍存在于工程结构中,是影响结构系统可靠性分析精度的重要因素。针对随机恒幅载荷和随机变幅载荷两类典型工况,推导积矩相关系数和Kendall秩相关系数的计算式,从定性和定量角度分析结构系统各单元疲劳失效内在的统计相关机理。单元寿命相关性主要来自应力过程特征量的分散性,而材料性能的分散性则减轻相关程度。根据单元失效的统计相关机理,利用阿基米德族的Clayton Copula建立串联、并联结构系统的疲劳寿命可靠性模型。分析表明:Clayton Copula形式简洁,可细腻刻画单元对数寿命联合分布密度等高线呈现的非对称形态,由此建立的概率模型计算精度高。算例验证了所提方法的合理性和可行性。新模型可用于共因载荷多次作用下结构系统的疲劳寿命可靠度预测,并为考虑多模式损伤耦合的装备可靠性设计及概率评估提供新工具。     

失效相关系统动态可靠性建模与失效率研究

建立了随机载荷作用下的失效相关串联系统、并联系统和k／n系统动态可靠性模型,并研究了系统可靠度和失效率随时间的变化规律。在系统层运用载荷一强度干涉模型建立了失效相关系统可靠性模型;在分析系统可靠性模型的基础上,建立了系统强度的累积分布函数和概率密度函数。运用顺序统计量理论建立了载荷多次作用时等效载荷的累积分布函数和概率密度函数,进而建立了强度不退化时载荷多次作用下的系统可靠性模型以及系统动态可靠性模型。运用概率微分方程建立了强度退化时的系统动态可靠性模型。研究了串联系统、并联系统和k／n系统可靠度和失效率随时间变化的规律。研究表明：系统与零件具有相似的特征;系统的可靠度随时间逐渐降低,k／n系统的可靠度介于串联系统和并联系统之间;强度不退化时,系统的失效率随时间逐渐减小;强度退化时,系统的失效率具有“浴盆”曲线的全部特征。     

多状态系统共因失效机理与定量分析

共因失效是由共同诱因引发的相关失效形式,普遍存在于各类系统,当前研究仅限于二态系统。该文针对存在共因失效的串并联不可修系统,探讨共因失效的发生与作用机理,基于载荷离散化方法和概率发生函数建立多状态系统可靠性定量评估模型,新模型可反映在失效共因下元件部分失效及其累积效应对系统各级性能的影响。研究表明,元件因失效共因而统计相关时,各元件状态趋同的概率增大,而取异值的概率减小,对系统可靠度分析产生影响。载荷离散化模型实现系统共因失效相关性的近似解耦,发生函数法能以统一的程序方式快捷处理概率组合问题。提出的模型为多状态系统共因失效及可靠性研究提供新途径。     

基于可靠性理论的多失效模式老龄平台剩余寿命预测

建立综合考虑平台结构构件的疲劳失效、腐蚀失效和静强度失效3种失效模式的可靠性模型.提出多失效模式下平台整体系统可靠度计算方法,分析不同失效模式对平台系统可靠性的影响.以可靠性理论为基础,考虑已服役载荷的验证作用,计算老龄平台系统在后继服役期内的可靠度指标,进而预测平台的剩余寿命.通过:Monte Carlo实例模拟结果表明,文中研究为平台服役后期的剩余寿命预测提供更为合理的计算方法,区分不同服役阶段的构件失效模式,可为平台的检修决策提供依据.     

以载荷作用次数为寿命指标的失效相关系统可靠性建模

提出以随机载荷作用次数为寿命度量指标框架下的失效相关系统可靠性建模方法。考虑系统中各零部件之间存在的失效相关性,通过引入条件可靠度建立失效相关系统可靠性模型。分别以静强度失效和疲劳失效的可靠性分析为背景,给出强度不退化和强度退化时随机载荷多次作用下的系统可靠度与失效率计算模型,并研究系统可靠度与失效率随载荷作用次数的变化规律。研究表明,即使强度不退化,系统的可靠度和失效率也会随着随机载荷作用次数的增加而逐渐减小,失效率曲线具有浴盆曲线"早期失效期"和"偶然失效期"的特征。强度随载荷作用次数退化时,随着载荷作用次数的增加,系统的可靠度降低较为明显;失效率先减小后增大,具有"浴盆曲线"的特征。所建立的模型可用于指导系统的可靠性设计、可靠性试验和全生命周期管理。     

失效相关系统动态可靠性建模与失效率研究

建立了随机载荷作用下的失效相关串联系统、并联系统和k/n系统动态可靠性模型,并研究了系统可靠度和失效率随时间的变化规律。在系统层运用载荷-强度干涉模型建立了失效相关系统可靠性模型;在分析系统可靠性模型的基础上,建立了系统强度的累积分布函数和概率密度函数。运用顺序统计量理论建立了载荷多次作用时等效载荷的累积分布函数和概率密度函数,进而建立了强度不退化时载荷多次作用下的系统可靠性模型以及系统动态可靠性模型。运用概率微分方程建立了强度退化时的系统动态可靠性模型。研究了串联系统、并联系统和k/n系统可靠度和失效率随时间变化的规律。研究表明：系统与零件具有相似的特征;系统的可靠度随时间逐渐降低,k/n系统的可靠度介于串联系统和并联系统之间;强度不退化时,系统的失效率随时间逐渐减小;强度退化时,系统的失效率具有“浴盆”曲线的全部特征。

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Minimal Realization of Linear Graph Models for Multi-physics Systems

An engineering system may consist of several different types of components,belonging to such physical"domains"as mechanical,electrical,fluid,and thermal.It is t...     

INTEGRAL EQUATION METHOD＇S APPLICATION IN HOLE-EDGE STRESS OF COMPOSITE MATERIAL PLATE WITH DIFFERENT SHAPED HOLES

The strength of composite plate with different hole-shapes is always one of the most important but complicated issues in the application of the composite material. The holes will lead to mutations and discontinuity to the structure. So the hole-edge stress concentration is always a serious phenomenon. And the phenomenon makes the structure strength decrease very quickly to form dangerous weak points. Most partial damage begins from these weak points. According to the complex variable functions theory, the accurate boundary condition of composite plate with different hole-shapes is founded by conformal mapping method to settle the boundary condition problem of complex hole-shapes. Composite plate with commonly hole-shapes in engineering is studied by several complex variable stress fimction. The boundary integral equations are founded based on exact boundary conditions. Then the exact hole-edge stress analytic solution of composite plate with rectangle holes and wing manholes is resolved. Both of offset axis loadings and its influences on the stress concentration coefficient of the hole-edge are discussed. And comparisons of different loads along various offset axis on the hole-edge stress distribution of orthotropic plate with rectangle hole or wing manhole are made. It can be concluded that hole-edge with continuous variable curvatures might help to decrease the stress concentration coefficient; and smaller angle of outer load and fiber can decrease the stress peak value.     

Non-monotonic material contrast in scanning ion and scanning electron images

30 keV Ga⁺ focused ion beam induced secondary electron (iSE) imaging was used to determine the relative contrast between several materials. The iSE signal compared from C, Si, Al, Ti, Cr, Ni, Cu, Mo, Ag, and W metal layers does not decrease with an increase in target atomic number Z₂, and shows a non-monotonic relationship between contrast and Z₂. The non-monotonic relationship is attributed to periodic fluctuations of the stopping power and sputter yield inherent to the ion–solid interactions. In addition, material contrast from electron-induced secondary electron (eSE) and backscattered electron (BSE) images using scanning electron microscopy (SEM) also shows non-monotonic contrast as a function of Z₂, following the periodic behavior of the stopping power for electron–solid interactions. A comparison of the iSE and eSE results shows similar relative contrast between the metal layers, and not complementary contrast as conventionally understood. These similarities in the contrast behavior can be attributed to similarities in the periodic and non-monotonic function defined by incident particle–solid interaction theory.     

Short-Term Relay Quality Prediction Algorithm Based on Long and Short-Term Memory

The fraction defective of semi-finished products is predicted to optimize the process of relay production lines, by which production quality and productivity ar...     

End-to-End Multiview Gesture Recognition for Autonomous Car Parking System

The use of hand gestures can be the most intuitive human-machine interaction medium.The early approaches for hand gesture recognition used device-based methods....     

Application of Feature Extraction through Convolution Neural Networks and SVM Classifier for Robust Grading of Apples

This paper proposes a novel grading method of apples,in an automated grading device that uses convolutional neural networks to extract the size,color,texture,an...     

分布动态载荷识别的抗噪处理

针对正交多项式频域法在用多种响应对矩形薄板进行载荷识别中抗噪性较差的问题,综合运用平均法、矩阵预处理和奇异值截断法等方法对之进行改善,并引入空间映射的思想,将该方法的应用范围拓展为复杂的模型.利用仿真算例,证实了该方法具有较好的抗噪性.     

基于MELTAC-N平台的核电厂安全级DCS环网研究与测试

针对工程实践中环网通讯相关问题的处理缺乏理论基础及国产化安全级DCS平台的开发缺乏成熟经验借鉴问题,对基于MELTAC-N平台核电厂安全级DCS环网的软硬件实现进行了研究。提出了安全级DCS环网双环网冗余设计、光切换开关设计等硬件设计方法,以及以RPR协议为基础,采用全数据收发策略的软件设计方法。在CPR1000安全级DCS平台上对安全级DCS环网的可靠性及实时性进行了评价,并进行了容错能力、响应时间及响应时间稳定性测试验证实验。结果表明,基于MELTAC-N平台安全级DCS环网软硬件设计具有较好的容错能力及响应时间稳定性。     

The laboratory simulation of abrasive wear

Abrasive wear has long been recognised as one of the most potentially serious tribological problems facing the operators of many types of plant and machinery; several industrial surveys have indicated that wear by abrasion can be responsible for more than 50% of unscheduled machine and plant stoppages. Locating the operating point of a tribological contact in an appropriate operational ‚map’︁ can provide a useful guide to the likely nature and origins of the surface degradation experienced in use, though care must be exercised in choosing the most suitable parameters for the axes of the plot. Laboratory testing of materials and simulations of machine contacts are carried out for a number of purposes; at one level for the very practical aims of ranking candidate materials or surface hardening treatments in order of their wear resistance, or in an attempt to predict wear lives under field conditions. More fundamentally, tests may be aimed at elucidating the essential physical mechanisms of surface damage and loss, with the longer term aim of building an analytical and predictive model of the wear process itself. In many cases, component surface damage is brought about by the ingress of hard, particulate matter into machine bearing or sealing clearances. These may be running dry although, more usually, a lubricant or service fluid is present at the interface. A number of standardised wear test geometries and procedures have been established for both two- and three-body wear situations, and these are briefly described. Although abrasive wear is often modelled as following an ‚Archard’︁ equation (i.e. a linear increase in material loss with both load and time, and an inverse dependence on specimen hardness) both industrial experience and laboratory tests of particularly lubricated contacts show that this is not always the case: increasing the hardness differential in an abrasively contaminated lubricated pair may not always reduce the rate of damage to the harder surface.     

ANGULAR DISTORTION ALLOWABLE VALUE AND ASSESS METHOD OF WELD ON COKE TOWER

A graph as the new engineering method for estimate the safety of bulging deformation of coke tower is proposed. Through stresses analysis of circumferential weld of coke tower and comparing the stresses produced by pressure with heat stress of steady state, residual stress, bending stress produced by both itself weight and wind loads, it showed that the stresses produced by pressure on the angle distortion are the main factor of equivalent stress of the combined stress. After comparing four kinds of stress controlling conditions, the relation to stress with depth of angular distortion, grade of curvature of angular distortion and half of region of angular distortion has been inferred. Graph of deformation allowable value of coke tower for different condition by angular distortion and half of region of angular distortion has been plotted. The five steps for its engineering use have been explained. The lighter the grade of curvature is, the larger of bulge allowance, may be, and the bigger of depth of angular distortion may pose too. For the coke tower with a popular structure of Dg 5 400 mm×28 mm, the result by graph is nearly more than the result of two formulas formed by other research, the error is less than 7.0%. But, the graph can be easily applied to different size of angular distortion.