基于EW-AHP和未确知测度理论的隧道瓦斯风险评价

铁路隧道施工中很多需要穿越瓦斯地层,施工的安全风险较高。为提高隧道瓦斯风险评价的准确性,基于未确知测度理论,建立铁路隧道瓦斯风险评价模型。以兴泉铁路于都二号隧道工程为依托,选取影响瓦斯风险的9个因素作为评价指标,并建立各评价指标的分级标准,运用乘法归一化方法将层次分析法和熵权法计算的权重耦合成综合权重,再由综合权重和评价指标的未确知测度矩阵确定多指标综合测度评价向量,最后根据置信度识别准则确定隧道瓦斯风险等级。研究结果表明:此评价模型相对于传统评价模型能够提高隧道瓦斯风险评价的准确性,且与实际施工情况高度吻合,可作为类似隧道项目施工中的瓦斯风险有效评价模型。      

基于未确知测度模型的稀土原地浸矿地下水污染风险评价

通过识别原地浸矿地下水污染风险因子,建立了基于未确知测度理论的原地浸矿地下水污染风险评价模型,运用信息熵理论确定评价指标的权重,采用置信度识别准则来评价地下水污染的风险等级,选取了pH值、溶解性固体（COD）、硫酸盐、氯化物、高锰酸钾指数、硝酸盐、氨氮、氟化物、六价铬、收液巷道母液监控收液系统、水平孔监控收液系统、垂直孔监控收液系统、气象系统日降雨量和月累计雨量等14项三级指标作为未确知测度模型的判别指标,对国内某稀土原地浸矿前、浸矿中、浸矿后以及私采矿区分别进行了地下水污染风险评价,评价结果与该矿山的实际情况较吻合.研究结果表明,模型指标选择合理,未确知测度模型运用合理,该模型具有一定的实际运用价值,为稀土原地浸矿地下水污染风险提供了较好的评价方法.      

基于改进熵权法—未确知测度模型的黄金洞尾矿库综合安全评价

针对尾矿库安全评价中存在的不确定性问题,以黄金洞尾矿库为例,引入未确知测度理论,分析评价对象与评价指标之间的关系,建立一个包含5个影响因素和18个影响因子的尾矿库综合安全指标评价体系,结合基于层次分析法—熵权法综合确定指标权重,构建基于改进熵权法—未确知测度模型.根据该模型的指标评价体系和分级模式确定指标测度函数,代入...     

基于未确知测度理论评判模型的岩爆倾向性预测

随着钨矿山的深部开采,各类地压问题也不断出现,特别是作为高地应力条件下的岩石能量释放方式之一的岩爆现象更为多见,岩爆倾向性预测评价是矿山安全的重要内容。采用未确知测度理论与熵值法相结合的方法进行岩爆倾向性预测。根据岩爆倾向性的影响因素和分级标准,运用未确知测度理论建立了地下矿山岩爆倾向性预测评价指标的未确知测度函数,用熵值法确定评价指标的权重,依据置信度识别模型对地下矿山岩爆倾向性预测进行评价,并结合实例进行了对比分析。研究结果表明,该方法为地下矿山岩爆倾向性预测评价提供了一种新方法。     

基于改进未确知测度理论的矿床开采方式优选

为了判定矿床最优开采方式,基于改进的未确知测度理论,从环境、工程及技术经济等3个方面选取评价指标,建立矿床开采方式的未确知测度优选模型。该模型综合考虑矿床开采方式的影响因素,依据实际情况,对其进行定性定量分析,并引入博弈论计算各因素的综合指标权重,从而降低评价结果主观性,同时考虑了专家的经验因素,参考置信度识别准则进行等级判定,最后得出开采方式评价结果。结合国内某矿山实例,运用其对该矿床开采方式进行评价。研究结果表明：该矿山开采方式评价等级为Ⅱ级,与实际相符。     

基于未确知测度理论的采空区稳定性分级

针对采空区复杂性和不确定性的特点,以未确知测度理论为依据,对采空区稳定性进行分级。确定了14项影响因子作为采空区稳定性的评判标准,并建立采空区稳定性评价体系。根据矿山真实数据建立不同因素的未确知测度函数,通过熵计算各影响因素的指标权重,结合置信度识别准确对采空区进行稳定性划分,为采空区治理提供理论依据。将该方法应用于玲珑金矿西山矿区25个采空区的稳定性分析,划分出1个Ι级空区,12个Ⅱ级空区,11个Ⅲ级空区以及1个Ⅳ级空区。研究结果表明,未确知测度理论科学可靠,能够较准确地分析采空区的稳定性,可以在矿山实际生产中推广应用。     

基于变权重理论的边坡稳定性未确知分析

针对目前常用的边坡稳定性分析模型在评价指标趋于边缘状态时容易出现“状态失衡”的情况,将变权重理论引入到边坡稳定性分析当中,并结合未确知测度理论,从地质条件、环境条件和工程条件3个方面选取对边坡稳定影响最大的12个指标来建立VW-UM边坡稳定性分析模型。模型构建步骤包括：先计算出各评价指标的常权重;再根据各指标取值情况,通过变权重理论计算更符合该项工程实际情况的变权重;最后运用未确知测度法得出边坡稳定性等级。将该模型应用到新桥矿、姑山矿、黄麦岭矿的岩质边坡稳定性分析当中,实践证明该模型在权重计算上具有优越性,在影响因素统计值处于边缘状态时取得的评价结果更符合工程实际。     

基于物元分析—未确知测度理论的地下矿山安全避险“六大系统”可靠性评估方法

为实现对地下矿山安全避险"六大系统"的可靠性评估,构建安全避险"六大系统"评价指标体系,从监测监控系统、人员定位系统、紧急避险系统、压风自救系统、供水施救系统和通信联络系统6个方面提出31个评价指标;结合物元分析与层次分析法(AHP)进行合成确定各评价指标权重,并以未确知测度理论作为评估工具,构建地下矿山安全避险"六大系统"可靠性评估模型;最后,以某矿山安全避险"六大系统"为例进行评价分析。结果表明:基于物元分析—未确知测度理论的地下矿山安全避险"六大系统"评估方法实现了对评价空间的有序分割,评估结果符合专家思维,在实际应用中具有可操作性。     

基于未确知测度理论的保安矿柱安全性评价

为了保证谦比希铜矿露天转地下开采过程中所留设的保安矿柱的稳定性,结合矿山开采技术条件和工程地质条件,并根据数值模拟计算的结果,以未确知测度理论为基础,选取保安矿柱厚度、抗压强度、抗拉强度、露天坑深度、节理分布、地下矿采矿方法、露天坑积水共7个主要影响因素作为评价的指标,引入信息熵理论,建立未确知测度模型,对谦比希铜矿露天转地下开采保安矿柱的安全性进行分析。结果表明,应用未确知测度理论对保安矿柱的稳定性进行评价是可行的,可为矿山进行安全生产提供参考。     

基于改进AHP-未确知测度理论的选矿厂防尘工程评价模型及应用

选矿厂防尘工程评价涉及多因素,采用层次分析法和未确知测度理论相结合的理论模型对某有色金属矿山选矿厂防尘工程进行评价。从防尘工艺、作业环境与卫生、组织与管理水平和防尘设备等4方面22个指标建立综合评价指标体系,以专家打分的形式获得指标测度矩阵,基于置信度识别准则获得该选矿厂防尘工程评价等级为好,与实际调查结果一致。该模型具有一定的合理性与应用价值。     

Violence Risk Assessment: Getting Specific About Being Dynamic.

Substantial strides have been made in the field of violence risk assessment. Numerous robust risk factors have been identified and incorporated into structured violence risk assessment instruments. The concepts of violence prevention, management, and treatment have been infused into contemporary thinking on risk assessment. This conceptual development underscores the necessity of identifying, measuring, and monitoring changeable (dynamic) risk factors--the most promising targets for risk reduction efforts. However, empirical investigation of dynamic risk is virtually absent from the literature. In this article, the authors (a) differentiate risk status (interindividual risk level based largely on static risk factors) from risk state (intraindividual risk level determined largely by current status on dynamic risk factors), (b) analyze the relevance of contemporary risk assessment measures for capturing dynamic risk, and (c) distill potentially important dynamic risk factors from the literature in order to facilitate future research. Suggestions for theory development and research design are provided. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

The validity and reliability of the Violence Risk Scale: A treatment-friendly violence risk assessment tool.

The development of risk assessment tools that use dynamic variables to predict recidivism and to inform and facilitate violence reduction interventions is the next major challenge in the field of risk assessment and management. This study is the first in a 2-step process to validate the Violence Risk Scale (VRS), a risk assessment tool that integrates violence assessment, prediction, and treatment. Ratings of the 6 static and 20 dynamic VRS variables assess the client's level of risk. Ratings of the dynamic variables identify treatment targets linked to violence, and ratings of the stages of change of the treatment targets assess the client's treatment readiness and change. The VRS scores of 918 male offenders showed good interrater reliability and internal consistency and could predict violent and nonviolent recidivism over both short- and longer term (4.4-year) follow-up. The probability of violent and nonviolent recidivism varied linearly with VRS scores. Dynamic and static variables performed equally well. The results support the contention that the VRS can be used to assess violent risk and to guide violence reduction treatment. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

转炉煤气储存系统的火灾爆炸危险性评价

在对某厂5万m3转炉煤气储存系统所存在的主要危险因素分析基础上,运用美国道化学公司的火灾爆炸危险指数评价方法（第七版）,对其火灾爆炸危险性进行了定量计算和评价.评价结果表明,该储存系统的火灾爆炸指数为97,即危险等级为中等.为降低该储存系统的火灾爆炸危险性,提出了切实可行的安全措施进行补偿.补偿的结果表明,其火灾爆炸危险性大大降低.     

基于动力学监测指标的崩塌早期预警研究进展

崩塌灾害的早期预警一直是岩土工程领域研究的热点问题之一.传统的监测预警方法监测指标相对单一, 更多关注于加速破坏前兆的识别, 使得崩塌的早期预警存在诸多困难.本文首先引入动力学监测指标, 对岩土体破坏过程中的动力响应进行综述, 得出基于固有振动频率等动力学监测指标可以为危岩体的损伤提供数据支持.随后基于最新的实验研究发现动力学监测指标可以有效反应边坡的物理力学特征的变化, 进而可以实现岩体损伤与稳定性的动态识别和定量判断.在对国内外现状进行综述发现, 基于分离阶段破坏前兆识别的岩块体崩塌灾害预警思路, 具有更好的时效性, 是未来崩塌早期预警的发展方向, 同时对崩塌的早期预警指标体系进行展望, 得出基于动力学指标、静力学指标和环境量指标三位一体的早期监测预警指标体系, 必将在工程监测与灾害预警方面发挥更大潜力, 为从事应对崩塌等脆性破坏灾害预警预防的研究工作者提供有效参考.      

Predictors of heavy drinking during and following treatment.

Alcohol dependence has been described as a relapsing condition and it has been proposed that alcohol lapses could potentially be explained by dynamic associations between contextual, interpersonal, and intrapersonal risk factors. Yet, few studies have tested the associations between risk factors in the prediction of lapse dynamics. The current study was a secondary analysis of data from the COMBINE study (n = 1,383; COMBINE Study Research Group, 2003). The goal of the current study was to examine static (alcohol dependence severity, treatment history, marital status, psychiatric symptoms) and dynamic (negative affect, craving, stress) predictors of heavy drinking during the course of treatment and up to one year following treatment. Results from dynamic latent difference score models indicated that higher levels of static and dynamic risk and increased dynamic risk over time were significantly associated with greater increases in heavy drinking. Likewise, more frequent heavy drinking and higher static risk predicted higher levels of dynamic risk. In addition, changes in dynamic risk factors significantly mediated the association between changes in heavy drinking and both psychiatric symptoms and treatment history. It is important to note that while the effects of static and dynamic risk factors in the prediction of heavy drinking were statistically significant, the magnitude of the effects were small. The current study provided partial support for a dynamic model of relapse; however future research using intensive longitudinal data collection and more advanced statistical techniques could further elucidate lapse dynamics and potentially improve relapse prevention planning. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2011 APA, all rights reserved)     

基于AHP和物元TOPSIS法的层状岩体巷道冒顶风险评价

为实现层状岩体巷道冒顶风险评价,建立基于层次分析法（AHP）和物元逼近理想解排序法（TOPSIS）的巷道冒顶评价模型。以辽宁某煤矿为例,首先选出影响层状岩体巷道冒顶的5个主要指标,依次为稳定岩层距巷道顶板表面的距离、地下水渗水量、巷道的跨度、稳定岩层厚度和顶板稳定岩层岩石的单轴抗压强度,然后运用AHP确定各指标的主观权重,并利用物元分析法进行修正,最后采用TOPSIS法对4个巷道样本进行评价,得出巷道冒顶风险评价结果：样本1和样本2为Ⅲ级,样本3为Ⅱ级,样本4为Ⅳ级,评价结果与未确知测度理论所得结果相符,证明了该方法的可行性和有效性。该方法克服了层次分析法确定指标权重的主观性,从而能够合理地对巷道冒顶风险进行评价。     

Progressive Analysis Procedure for Progressive Collapse

Following the collapse of the World Trade Center towers in September 2001, there has been heightened interest among building owners and government entities in evaluating the progressive collapse potential of existing buildings and in designing new buildings to resist this type of collapse. The General Services Administration and Department of Defense have issued general guidelines for evaluating a building’s progressive collapse potential. However, little detailed information is available to enable engineers to confidently perform a systematic progressive collapse analysis satisfying these guidelines. In this paper, we present four successively more sophisticated analysis procedures for evaluating the progressive collapse hazard: linear-elastic static; nonlinear static; linear-elastic dynamic; and nonlinear dynamic. We discuss the advantages and disadvantages of each method. We conclude that the most effective analysis procedure for progressive collapse evaluation incorporates the advantageous parts of all four procedures by systematically applying increasingly comprehensive analysis procedures to confirm that the possibility of progressive collapse is high.     

作业条件危险性评价法在炼铁厂的应用探讨

作业条件危险性评价法是对生产作业单元进行的危险性评价,评价的结果能够比较直观反映出各单元的危险程度,为企业安全管理提供指导。在对炼铁厂发生事故分析的基础上确立了作业条件危险性评价法的适用性。提出了以操作者具体的一项操作为评价单元的思路。并以实例对该方法的应用进行了探讨。