煤与瓦斯突出预报研究

介绍了煤与瓦斯突出机理,重点阐述了煤与瓦斯突出预报方法及其在实际中的应用,在分析我国突出预报现状的基础上,讨论了突出预报的发展趋势.     

瓦斯涌出异常预报煤与瓦斯突出

通过对掘进工作面突出前夕煤壁瓦斯浓度变化规律的研究,提出了利用瓦斯浓度变化预报煤与瓦斯突出的方法,并建立了突出预报数学模型.研究表明：对瓦斯浓度序列的移动平均线、振幅、频次和方差等几个方面的综合评判,可预报掘进工作面突出的发生,并以潘一矿突出实例进行验证,表明在突出前2.5 h瓦斯浓度变化出现异常,根据这一异常可实现突出预报.     

煤与瓦斯突出预报研究

介绍了煤与瓦斯突出机理,重点阐述了煤与瓦斯突出预报方法及其在实际中的应用,在分析我国突出预报现状的基础上,讨论了突出预报的发展趋势。     

煤与瓦斯突出预测预报方法探讨

煤与瓦斯突出预测预报方法探讨芙蓉矿务局刘天应，刘新民根据国内外研究瓦斯突出预测预报现状和发展趋势，结合我局白皎矿的实际条件，经过研究，筛选出３组不同特点的参数进行综合分析，依据分析结果判定煤层的突出危险性。第１组地质因素。国内外研究者的共识是瓦斯突出...     

煤与瓦斯突出预测预报技术研究现状及发展趋势

为了寻求新的适合当前高瓦斯高产工作面的煤与瓦斯突出预报方法,对矿井煤与瓦斯突出预测预报方法的研究现状进行了论述和分析,指出了现有预报方法中存在的缺陷,讨论了突出预测预报今后的发展趋势.     

新型煤与瓦斯突出预测指标确定及应用

针对现有煤与瓦斯突出预测指标存在的不足,探讨了一种新的突出预测指标,即流量面积矩,该突出预测方法能对掘进巷道前方煤体的突出危险性实施动态连续测定,是一种线性预测方法.对该预测指标在理论上的可行性进行分析并在现场进行试验,得到流量面积矩指标的突出临界值为81.47 (L· m2)/min,在现场打钻过程中,当测得的流量面积矩数值大于突出临界值时都会发生煤与瓦斯突出动力现象,说明该预测指标的预测结果与现场实际情况具有较好的一致性,这对矿井预防煤与瓦斯突出工作起到了很好的指导作用.     

煤与瓦斯突出预测的一个新指标

煤与瓦斯突出是煤矿主要瓦斯灾害事故类型之一。目前,国内煤与瓦斯突出预测主要是根据瓦斯动力现象特征和基于煤层瓦斯压力、煤的破坏类型、坚固性系数与瓦斯放散初速度的四参数法。四参数法规定,4个参数均超过各自的临界值才能定为突出煤层;瓦斯压力的临界值为0.74 MPa。但实践表明,瓦斯压力小于0.74 MPa 也曾多次发生突出。本文用可压缩流体力学的观点分析了突出机理;采用多相连续介质力学中的应力分析法建立了煤与瓦斯突出预测的一个新指标 F,并给出了有关参数的计算方法;案例分析表明,所得结果符合实际。     

Application of dynamic set-pair analysis in coal and gas outburst prediction

Analyzed the factors which affected the coal and gas outburst, then established the corresponding indicator system. Built a dynamic set-pair analysis prediction model which combined of Markov model and set-pair analysis model, and then it applied to coal and gas outburst prediction. Finally, compared the prediction results with the actual results. As provided a reference to the coalmine in safety decision-making. The research results indicate that there are four districts in high dangerous level, two districts in middle level and one district in low level, which consistent with the actual situation; the dynamic set-pair analysis model has a good effect in predicting coal and gas outburst. Especially in the continuous time intervals, according to the data of mined exploration and the connection degree analysis, we can deduce the dangerous levels of unexplored districts from the historical data. In different districts, the relevant indicators can be adjusted accordingly, so as to enhance the accuracy of the prediction.     

煤与瓦斯突出预测敏感指标及其临界值研究进展

煤与瓦斯突出预测是突出煤层2个"四位一体"综合防突措施的关键环节,对确定突出预测敏感指标及其临界值具有重要意义。以往突出预测敏感指标及临界值的确定,包括地应力指标和瓦斯指标,是通过现场反复测试、试验确定的;而现今的突出防治管理模式不支持这种方法,故只能采取实验室试验研究,主要是针对瓦斯相关指标的研究,结合部分现场验证来确定。选取大隆矿12煤、芦岭矿8煤、祁南矿3煤、朱仙庄矿10煤、童亭矿7煤和新景3煤等6个煤样,煤种涉及中等变质程度的气肥煤到高等变质程度的无烟煤,试验研究了各煤样瓦斯压力P与瓦斯含量W,瓦斯压力P与钻屑瓦斯解吸指标K_1和Δh_2,以及钻屑瓦斯解吸指标K_1与Δh_2之间的关系规律。结果表明:突出预测的瓦斯指标之间具有单值对应关系,但各煤样的这种对应关系是变化的,国家相关标准给出的突出预测指标建议临界值之间并不对应,也不能完全反映煤层的实际突出危险性与突出严重程度,不同变质程度煤层很难存在统一的临界值;应用煤层瓦斯相关指标之间的对应关系,结合突出煤层的实际,如始突深度、突出动力现象、钻孔动力现象等,可间接确定突出预测敏感指标的临界值。同时,未来精细化的突出防治对突出预测敏感指标有更高的要求,进一步研究的方向应包含反映地应力状况、小构造影响下煤层赋存、预测煤层潜在突出强度的指标,以及适应突出灾害差异性的新突出预测方法及措施效果检验方法。     

Research on prediction for coal and gas outburst based on Matlab neural network toolbox and its application

In order to predict the danger of coal and gas outburst in mine coal layer correctly, on the basis of the VLBP and LMBP algorithm in Matlab neural network toolbox, one kind of modified BP neural network was put forth to speed up the network convergence speed in this paper. Firstly, according to the characteristics of coal and gas outburst, five key influencing factors such as excavation depth, pressure of gas, and geologic destroy degree were selected as the judging indexes of coal and gas outburst. Secondly, the prediction model for coal and gas outburst was built. Finally, it was verified by practical examples. Practical application demonstrates that, on the one hand, the modified BP prediction model based on the Matlab neural network toolbox can overcome the disadvantages of constringency and, on the other hand, it has fast convergence speed and good prediction accuracy. The analysis and computing results show that the computing speed by LMBP algorithm is faster than by VLBP algorithm but needs more memory. And the resuits show that the prediction results are identical with actual results and this model is a very efficient prediction method for mine coal and gas outburst, and has an important practical meaning for the mine production safety. So we conclude that it can be used to predict coal and gas outburst precisely in actual engineering.     

Development of regional prediction information system of coal and gas outburst

Coal and gas outburst information system is based on Geographic Information System（GIS）, with which the relation among mine geological structure, coal features, stress field and coal and gas outburst were researched, and also the relation between gas distributed condition and dangerous degrees. Various prediction method, index and technique were applied to realize the data visualization; the accuracy of region prediction was increased. The system has successfully applied in Huainan minging area and Pingdingshan minging area.     

煤与瓦斯突出预测指标临界值的选取对预测准确率的影响

系统地分析了煤与瓦斯突出预测指标临界值的选取对预测准确率的影响规律，建立了工作面煤与瓦斯突出的危险性与突出预测指标测定值的关系模式，指出指标的概念误差和测定误差是预测结果含有确定性的根本原因。在此基础上，分析了临界与预测准确率的关系，认为降低（或提高）临界值可提高预测不突出（或突出）的准确率，但过度降低（或提高）将损害生产（或安全）利益。     

煤与瓦斯突出区域性预测的综合判据研究

为了准确、快速地预测煤与瓦斯突出,以焦作中马村矿为实施矿井,采用瓦斯地质理论全面分析了影响瓦斯突出的地质条件,利用数量化理论Ⅲ筛选了瓦斯突出的敏感指标,应用数量化理论Ⅱ建立了煤与瓦斯突出区域性预测的综合判据,选用二维判别方法对中马村矿二l煤层未采区进行了预测,预测结果为突出危险区23个,突出威胁区41个,非突出区106个,与实际突出结果吻合．表明采用瓦斯地质理论和数量化理论相结合的方法预测煤与瓦斯突出是可行的．煤与瓦斯突出区域性预测综合判据的建立使突出预测规范化,有望推广应用．     

基于突变理论的煤与瓦斯突出危险性预测的研究

将突变理论引入到煤与瓦斯突出危险性预测的研究中,进行了将突变理论和模糊数学结合的突变级数法进行突出预测的研究,从而构建了煤与瓦斯突出危险性预测的评价模型.基于突变理论的煤与瓦斯突出危险性的预测研究,综合考虑了不同指标对突出危险性的影响程度,通过实例分析计算表明,该方法预测结果能较好地与实际相吻合.     

工作面煤与瓦斯突出预测指标敏感性综合分析

突出煤层采区区域防突措施消突后,往往难以通过传统的“三率法”考察工作面突出预测敏感指标。在此情况下,为研究确定实验矿井13-1煤层工作面突出预测敏感指标,首先分析了预测指标在地质构造影响区域的变化情况及其与工作面瓦斯涌出量变化的对应关系,得出钻屑瓦斯解吸指标K1和钻孔瓦斯涌出初速度指标q的敏感性高于钻屑量指标S;再通过灰色关联分析法得出各指标的敏感性大小依次为K1＞q＞S。通过定性分析和定量分析相结合的方法综合研究确定以钻屑指标法进行工作面突出危险性预测。