AVHRR derived phenological change in the Sahel and Soudan, Africa, 1982-2005

The Sahel region of Africa has experienced a decrease in rainfall from the early 1960s to mid 1990s. Recent studies have detected an increased in NDVI amplitude and growing season integrated NDVI for the region since 1982. However, these studies have not examined how plant phenology has changed. Phenology examines life cycle events such as bud burst and leaf senescence. Using the software TIMESAT to estimate phenological parameters from the GIMMS AVHRR NDVI dataset, we have found significant positive trends for the length of the growing and end of the growing season for the Soudan and Guinean regions, but significant trends in the Sahel could not be detected. The geographical extent of these trends contrasts with the more northern extent of positive trends of NDVI amplitude and growing season integrated NDVI. Results suggest two types of “greening” trends associated with rainfall change since the drought in the early 1980s.     

Development of a daily long term record of NOAA-14 AVHRR land surface temperature over Africa

We developed a new 6-year daily, daytime and nighttime, NOAA-14 AVHRR based land surface temperature (LST) dataset over continental Africa for the period 1995 through 2000. The processing chain was developed within the Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping System (GIMMS) at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center. This paper describes the processing methodology used to convert the Global Area Coverage Level-1b data into LST and collateral data layers, such as sun and view geometries, cloud mask, local time of observation, and latitude and longitude. We used the Ulivieri et al. [Ulivieri, C., M.M. Castronuovo, R. Francioni, and A. Cardillo (1994), A split window algorithm for estimating land surface temperature from satellites, Adv. Space Research, 14(3):59-65.] split window algorithm to determine LST values. This algorithm requires as input values of surface emissivity in AVHRR channels 4 and 5. Thus, we developed continental maps of emissivity using an ensemble approach that combines laboratory emissivity spectra, MODIS-derived maps of herbaceous and woody fractional cover, and the UNESCO FAO soil map. A preliminary evaluation of the resulting LST product over a savanna woodland in South Africa showed a bias of < 0.3 K and an uncertainty of < 1.3 K for daytime retrievals (< 2.5 K for night). More extensive validation is required before statistically significant uncertainties can be determined. The LST production chain described here could be adapted for any wide field of view sensor (e.g., MODIS, VIIRS), and the LST product may be suitable for monitoring spatial and temporal temperature trends, or as input to many process models (e.g., hydrological, ecosystem).     

ECOCLIMAP-II: An ecosystem classification and land surface parameters database of Western Africa at 1 km resolution for the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) project

This work is devoted to a presentation of the ECOCLIMAP-II database for Western Africa, which is an upgrade for this region of the former initiative, ECOCLIMAP-I, implemented at global scale. ECOCLIMAP-II is a dual database at 1-km resolution that comprises an ecosystem classification and a coherent set of land surface parameters. This new physiographic information (e.g. leaf area index, fractional vegetation cover, albedo and land cover classification), was especially developed in the framework of the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) programme in order to support the modelling of land-atmosphere interactions, which stresses the importance of the present study. Criteria for coherence between prevalent land cover classifications and the analysis of time series of the satellite leaf area index (LAI) between 2000 and 2007 constitute the analysis tools for setting up ECOCLIMAP-II. The LAI and inferred fraction of vegetation cover are spatially distributed per land cover unit. The fraction of vegetation cover is handled to split the land surface albedo into vegetation and bare soil albedo components, as is required for a large number of applications. The new ECOCLIMAP-II land cover product is improved with regard to the spatial coherence compared to former version. The reliability of the physiographic details is also confirmed through verification with land cover products at higher resolution.     

Determinants of the interannual relationships between remote sensed photosynthetic activity and rainfall in tropical Africa

The response of photosynthetic activity to interannual rainfall variations in Africa South of the Sahara is examined using 20 years (1981-2000) of Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) AVHRR data. Linear correlations and regressions were computed between annual NDVI and annual rainfall at a 0.5° latitude/longitude resolution, based on two gridded precipitation datasets (Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation [CMAP] and Climatic Research Unit [CRU]). The spatial patterns were then examined to detect how they relate to the mean annual rainfall amounts, land-cover types as from the Global Land Cover 2000 data set, soil properties and soil types. Yearly means were computed starting from the beginning of the vegetative year (first month after the minimum of the NDVI mean regime), with a one-month lead for rainfall.One third of tropical Africa displays significant (95% c.l.) correlations between interannual NDVI variations and those of rainfall. At continental scale, soil types and soil properties are only minor factors in the overall distribution of the correlations. Mean annual rainfall amounts and land-cover types are much more discriminating. The largest correlations, mostly over 0.60, are distinctly found in semi-arid (200-600 mm annual rainfall) open grassland and cropland areas. The presence of one of these two determinants (semi-aridity, and favourable land-cover type, i.e. open grassland and cropland) in the absence of the other does not systematically result in a significant correlation between rainfall and NDVI. By contrast, NDVI variations are independent from those of rainfall in markedly arid environments and in most forest and woodland areas. This results from a low signal-to-noise ratio in the former, and the fact that precipitation is generally not a limiting factor in the latter.The marginal response of NDVI to a given increase/decrease in rainfall, as described by the slope of the regression, displays a similar pattern to that of the correlation, with maximum slopes in semi-arid regions, except that a weaker response is noted in more densely populated areas, suggesting an incidence of particular land-use and agricultural practises.One-year lag relationships between annual rainfall and NDVI in the next year were also considered. Ten percent of the grid-points show significant correlations, but the spatial patterns remain difficult to interpret.     

Analysis of trends in the Sahelian ‘rain-use efficiency’ using GIMMS NDVI, RFE and GPCP rainfall data

Rain-use efficiency (RUE; the ratio of vegetation productivity to annual precipitation) has been suggested as a measure for assessing land degradation in arid/semi-arid areas. In the absence of anthropogenic influence, RUE has been reported to be constant over time, and any observed change may therefore be attributed to non-rainfall impacts. This study presents an analysis of the decadal time-scale changes in the relationship between a proxy for vegetation productivity (ΣNDVI) and annual rainfall in the Sahel-Sudanian zone of Africa. The aim is to test the quality of data input and the usefulness of both the RUE approach and an alternative method for separating the effects on vegetation productivity of rainfall change and human impact. The analyses are based on earth observation of both rainfall (GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project), 1982-2007 and RFE (Rainfall Estimate) (1996-2007)) and ΣNDVI (AVHRR GIMMS NDVI dataset, 1982-2007). It is shown that the increase in ΣNDVI has been substantial in the Sahel-Sudanian zone over the 1982-2007 period, whereas for the period 1996-2007 the pattern of ΣNDVI trends is more complex. Also, trend analysis of annual rainfall from GPCP data (2.5° resolution) and RFE data (0.1° resolution) suggests that rainfall has increased over both periods. Further it is shown that RUE values are highly correlated to rainfall, undermining the use of earth observation (EO)-based RUE (using ΣNDVI) as a means of separating rainfall impacts from other factors. An alternative method identify temporal trends in residuals of ΣNDVI, after regressing it against annual rainfall, is tested, yet is shown to be useful only where a high correlation between ΣNDVI and annual rainfall exists. For the areas in the Sahel-Sudanian zone for which this condition is fulfilled, trend analyses suggest very limited anthropogenic land degradation in the Sahel-Sudanian zone.     

The use of time-integrated NOAA NDVI data and rainfall to assess landscape degradation in the arid shrubland of Western Australia

Ground-based data on total phytomass were collected in 1998 and 1999 from four sampling domains, each nearly 1000 km², within the arid shrubland of Western Australia. These data were used in models relating rainfall and landscape characteristics to total phytomass to provide landscape-scale estimates of total phytomass and rainfall-use efficiency for 1992-1999 (referred to as RUE_P). These modelled estimates were compared with remotely sensed estimates of total phytomass (I-NDVI) and rainfall-use efficiency (I-NDVI/annual rainfall; referred to as RUE_N) using data from NOAA satellites.There was good agreement between ground-based and remotely sensed estimates of total phytomass but less agreement between estimates of rainfall-use efficiency. Partitioning the landscape on the basis of landscape resilience did not improve the amount of variance accounted for in RUE_P or RUE_N and there were conflicting relationships between landscape-scale indicators of landscape function and RUE_N. There was, however, evidence to suggest that temporal change in RUE_N may provide a useful broad-scale indicator of landscape degradation or recovery over decadal time intervals. Recommendations are made for broad-scale application of this indicator based on temporal trends in RUE_N.     

A model-based integrated assessment of land degradation by water erosion in a valuable Spanish rangeland

This paper presents an integrated assessment model aimed at evaluating land degradation by water erosion in dehesa rangelands in the Iberian Peninsula. The model is built following the system dynamics approach. The degradation risk is likened to the probability of losing a certain amount of soil within a number of years, as estimated over a great number of stochastic simulations. Complementary indicators are the average times needed to lose different amounts of soil over the simulations. A group of exogenous factors are ranked in order of importance. These factors are mainly climatic and economic and potentially affect soil erosion. Calibration is carried out for a typical dehesa defined over 22 working units selected from 10 representative farms distributed throughout the Spanish region of Extremadura. The degradation risk turns out to be moderate. The importance of climatic factors on soil erosion considerably exceeds that of those linked to human activities.     

On the relationship of NDVI with leaf area index in a deciduous forest site

Numerous studies have reported on the relationship between the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and leaf area index (LAI), but the seasonal and annual variability of this relationship has been less explored. This paper reports a study of the NDVI-LAI relationship through the years from 1996 to 2001 at a deciduous forest site. Six years of LAI patterns from the forest were estimated using a radiative transfer model with input of above and below canopy measurements of global radiation, while NDVI data sets were retrieved from composite NDVI time series of various remote sensing sources, namely NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR; 1996, 1997, 1998 and 2000), SPOT VEGETATION (1998-2001), and Terra MODIS (2001). Composite NDVI was first used to remove the residual noise based on an adjusted Fourier transform and to obtain the NDVI time-series for each day during each year.The results suggest that the NDVI-LAI relationship can vary both seasonally and inter-annually in tune with the variations in phenological development of the trees and in response to temporal variations of environmental conditions. Strong linear relationships are obtained during the leaf production and leaf senescence periods for all years, but the relationship is poor during periods of maximum LAI, apparently due to the saturation of NDVI at high values of LAI. The NDVI-LAI relationship was found to be poor (R² varied from 0.39 to 0.46 for different sources of NDVI) when all the data were pooled across the years, apparently due to different leaf area development patterns in the different years. The relationship is also affected by background NDVI, but this could be minimized by applying relative NDVI.Comparisons between AVHRR and VEGETATION NDVI revealed that these two had good linear relationships (R²=0.74 for 1998 and 0.63 for 2000). However, VEGETATION NDVI data series had some unreasonably high values during beginning and end of each year period, which must be discarded before adjusted Fourier transform processing. MODIS NDVI had values greater than 0.62 through the entire year in 2001, however, MODIS NDVI still showed an “M-shaped” pattern as observed for VEGETATION NDVI in 2001. MODIS enhanced vegetation index (EVI) was the only index that exhibited a poor linear relationship with LAI during the leaf senescence period in year 2001. The results suggest that a relationship established between the LAI and NDVI in a particular year may not be applicable in other years, so attention must be paid to the temporal scale when applying NDVI-LAI relationships.     

An in-depth study of the ICT ecosystem in a South African rural community: unveiling expenditure and communication patterns

There is no doubt of the contributions made by mobile phones and mobile network operators in increasing access to communications in rural areas of developing countries. Yet how affordable is this ubiquitous access in such an ICT ecosystem? Using data from two stratified random surveys conducted in a South African rural community, this paper provides a unique in-depth picture of the expenditure and communication patterns of its dwellers. Results show a high access ratio of people using mobile phone services weekly and a high proportion of disposable income dedicated to a very constrained set of mobile phone services. Factors such as mobile phone charging and the extra charges added by airtime resellers contribute to increase the communication costs. This data and its analysis can be used by the following: regulators and government agencies to better design their policy implementations to provide universal service and access; competing industry players to understand the dynamics within rural communities to better target their products; civil society organizations to use it as a case in their efforts to make affordable communications a constitutional right.     

Towards a model of consumer use of mobile information and communication technology in LDCs: the case of sub-Saharan Africa

Abstract. Using theories of technology acceptance and technology transfer, we identified factors affecting the use of mobile information and communication technology (mobile ICT) in the least developed countries (LDCs), specifically sub-Saharan Africa. From a literature review, we developed a research model to describe factors that impact mobile ICT use and formulated a series of hypotheses about them. We then surveyed mobile ICT users in Kenya and Nigeria and created a structural model to examine our hypothesized relationships. Our findings indicate that access to mobile ICT, and cultural influences on mobile ICT diffusion, strongly influence individuals' perceptions of the usefulness and ease of use of mobile ICT. Individuals' perceptions about the reliability of mobile ICT influence use of these technologies significantly. The results suggest that, although extensive ICT diffusion (high mobile ICT levels per capita) may be necessary for seeding commercial and economic initiatives that depend heavily on mobile ICT, such as m-commerce, it may not be sufficient. Firms conducting business in sub-Saharan Africa need to pay attention to the factors that explain individual mobile ICT use because these factors will most likely determine the optimal market segmentation, business development and customer service strategies for leveraging m-commerce operations in that region. For government units, the understanding of such factors would also be beneficial in aiding economic planning and commerce.     

Modelling the impacts of land system dynamics on human well-being: Using an agent-based approach to cope with data limitations in Koper,Slovenia

To cope with data limitations and to provide insight into the dynamics of LUCC for local stakeholders in the Municipality of Koper, Slovenia, we constructed an ABM (loosely defined) that integrates utility theory, logistic regression, and cellular automaton-like rules to represent the decision-making strategies of different agents. The model is used to evaluate the impact of LUCC on human well-being, as represented by the provision of highly productive agricultural soil, the extent of noise pollution, and quality-of-life measurements. Results for the Municipality of Koper show that, under a range of model assumptions, (1) high quality agricultural soils are disproportionately affected by urban growth, (2) aggregate resident quality of life increases non-linearly with a change in development density, (3) some drivers of residential settlement produce non-linear preference responses, and (4) clustering industrial development had a beneficial impact on human well-being. Additional novel contributions include the incorporation of noise pollution feedbacks and an approach to empirically inform agent preferences using a conjoint analysis of social survey data.     

Examination of the effects of computer-based mathematics instruction methods in children with mathematical learning difficulties: a meta-analysis

ABSTRACT

Technology is the candle which brightens the way of learning. Teaching by using computers is not a new practice and is in vogue for over 80 years. Computers have become powerful technological tools for educational purposes. Students who can develop good mathematical skills will also be able to learn other skills more easily, become more successful than others and further their learning process. The effectiveness of Computer-Based Instruction for teaching mathematics to children with specific learning difficulties has not been tested yet. Therefore, this study aims to examine the effects of Computer-Based Instruction on children with mathematical learning difficulties by evaluating the results of studies conducted in different countries with the help of the meta-analysis method, which is defined as a subset of systematic reviews of experimental researches. Inclusion criteria have been used to determine which one of the examined studies would be included in the meta-analysis. The sample size of the study is 1364 for the experimental group and 926 for the control group. Consequently, it has been observed that Computer-Based Instruction had positive effects on children with mathematical learning difficulties.     

Investigating perceived emotions and affects of a scene,and the user satisfaction with motion effects in 4D movies

The primary objective of this study was to investigate the intensity of perceived affect and emotion of a scene in relation to individual empathy ability and the rotation angle of a seat's motion caused by 4D movie motion effect. The secondary objective was to identify the causal factors that affected satisfaction with a motion effect. Although 4D movies have received increasing attention from the users of audiovisual content, user-centered research related to motion effects has rarely been conducted. Thirty-six participants who were grouped according to their empathy ability, viewed 10 4D movie clips and answered 2 questions related to 1) the perceived affect and emotion felt from the scenes and 2) satisfaction with the motion effects. The participants who had a high empathy ability indicated a stronger perceived affect and emotion during a scene than the participants who had a low empathy ability. A motion effect elicited different perceived emotions and affects between the two groups. The perceived temporal appropriateness, physical appropriateness, understandability, and disturbance of a motion effect affected the participants' satisfaction. This is a pioneering research related to the motion effects of 4D movie; therefore, these results could be helpful in providing insight for 4D effect designers of contents industry.