Optimization and analysis of a hydrogen supply chain in terms of cost,CO2 emissions,and risk: the case of Turkey

The transportation sector, which is largely dependent on oil, is faced with many problems such as the danger of depletion of fossil fuels that are harmful to the environment. Moreover, the situations such as epidemics and war cause excessive fluctuations in oil prices. Therefore, there is a need for new solutions based on alternative energy sources for a sustainable transportation sector. Hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (HFCEV) are one of the significant alternatives for an efficient, zero emissions and sustainable transportation system. Considering the potential investment in HFCEV technology, the need for a cost effective, green, and low risk Hydrogen Supply Chain (HSC) network infrastructure is inevitable. In this study, the HSC design of the Turkish transportation sector over a 25-year period (2026–2050) is investigated. The problem is modeled using a multi-period mixed integer linear programming (MIP) model. Three objectives are addresses: cost, carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions and safety risk. In order to consider the uncertainty in the hydrogen demand, five different scenarios are analyzed using fuzzy concept. There are four main results. First, unit hydrogen cost is found to be very high due to low demand and high capital cost in the initial period (2026–2031). Second, HSC network is established in a decentralized setting in all scenario solutions. The level of decentralization gets stronger over time and with increasing demand. Third, short-distance road transport is generally preferred for hydrogen transport. Fourth, since the aim is to minimize cost, CO₂ emissions, and risk level, a mixed production strategy based on cost-oriented SMR and zero-emissions-oriented Electrolysis (ELE) is observed in all scenarios.     

Analysis of Ontario's hydrogen economy demands from hydrogen fuel cell vehicles

The ‘Hydrogen Economy’ is a proposed system where hydrogen is produced from carbon dioxide free energy sources and is used as an alternative fuel for transportation. The utilization of hydrogen to power fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) can significantly decrease air pollutants and greenhouse gases emission from the transportation sector. In order to build the future hydrogen economy, there must be a significant development in the hydrogen infrastructure, and huge investments will be needed for the development of hydrogen production, storage, and distribution technologies. This paper focuses on the analysis of hydrogen demand from hydrogen FCVs in Ontario, Canada, and the related cost of hydrogen. Three potential hydrogen demand scenarios over a long period of time were projected to estimate hydrogen FCVs market penetration, and the costs associated with the hydrogen production, storage and distribution were also calculated. A sensitivity analysis was implemented to investigate the uncertainties of some parameters on the design of the future hydrogen infrastructure. It was found that the cost of hydrogen is very sensitive to electricity price, but other factors such as water price, energy efficiency of electrolysis, and plant life have insignificant impact on the total cost of hydrogen produced.     

The role of hydrogen cars in the economy of California

Hydrogen has been proposed as an alternative transportation fuel that could reduce energy consumption and eliminate tailpipe emissions when used in fuel cell vehicles (FCVs). To investigate the potential effects of hydrogen vehicles on California’s economy over the next two decades, we employed the modified Costs for Advanced Vehicles and Energy (CAVE) model and a California-specific computable general equilibrium model. Results indicate that, even in the aggressive scenario, hydrogen cars can only account for a minor fraction of the on-road fleet through 2030. Although new sales could drop sharply, conventional gasoline cars and carryover pre-2010 vehicles are still expected to dominate the on-road vehicle stock and consume the majority of transportation energy through 2030. Transportation energy consumption could decline dramatically, mainly because of the fuel economy advantage of FCVs over conventional cars. Both moderate and aggressive hydrogen scenarios are estimated to have a slightly negative influence on California’s economy. However, the negative economic impacts could be lessened as the market for hydrogen and FCVs builds up. Based on the economic optimization model, both hydrogen scenarios would have a negative economic impact on California’s oil refining sector and, as expected, a positive impact on the other directly related sectors that contribute to either hydrogen production or FCV manufacturing.     

Potential impact of transition to a low-carbon transport system in Iceland

This paper develops a system dynamics model of Iceland׳s energy sector (UniSyD_IS) that is based on the UniSyD_NZ model of New Zealand׳s energy economy. The model focuses on the energy supply sector with endogenous representation of road transport energy demand. Equilibrium interactions are performed across electricity, hydrogen, biofuels, and road transport sectors. Possible transition paths toward a low-carbon transport in Iceland are explored with implications for fuel demand, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and associated costs. The consumer sector simulates the long-term evolution of light and heavy-duty vehicles through a vehicle choice algorithm that accounts for social influences and consumer preferences. Through different scenarios, the influences of four fundamental driving factors are examined. The factors are oil price, carbon tax, fuel supply-push, and government incentives. The results show that changes in travel demand, vehicle technologies, fuel types, and efficiency improvements can support feasible transition paths to achieve sufficient reduction in GHG for both 4 °C and 2 °C climate scenarios of the Nordic Energy Technology Perspectives study. Initial investment in supply infrastructure for alternative fuels will not only mitigate GHG emissions, but also could provide long-term economic benefits through fuel cost saving for consumers and reduced fuel import costs for government.     

Fuel price determination in transportation sector using predicted energy and transport demand

This study determines fuel price based on estimated sectoral energy and transport demand using pumping prices. Three approaches are first used for estimating energy and transportation demand based on linear time series, polynomial time series and genetic algorithm based (GATEDE and GATDETR), as multi-parameter, models. Then, future fuel prices and marginal costs of the energy consumption are obtained. Transport demand-based energy efficiency methods are also developed. The fuel prices (FP) are analyzed under two scenarios: Linear and exponential price scenarios. Results showed that if the FP increases linearly, the marginal cost will slightly decreases from current trend, but will increases if demand increases exponentially. Results also showed that the demand-based pricing policy would help to develop a new pricing policy for fuel use in order to control fast growing demand on this sector. The exponential price increase would also help to locate financial sources to create environmentally friendly transportation systems.     

Role of natural gas in meeting an electric sector emissions reduction strategy and effects on greenhouse gas emissions

With advances in natural gas extraction technologies, there is an increase in the availability of domestic natural gas, and natural gas is gaining a larger share of use as a fuel in electricity production. At the power plant, natural gas is a cleaner burning fuel than coal, but uncertainties exist in the amount of methane leakage occurring upstream in the extraction and production of natural gas. At higher leakage levels, the additional methane emissions could offset the carbon dioxide emissions reduction benefit of switching from coal to natural gas. This analysis uses the MARKAL linear optimization model to compare the carbon emissions profiles and system-wide global warming potential of the U.S. energy system over a series of model runs in which the power sector is required to meet a specific carbon dioxide reduction target across a number of scenarios in which the availability of natural gas changes. Scenarios are run with carbon dioxide emissions and a range of upstream methane emission leakage rates from natural gas production along with upstream methane and carbon dioxide emissions associated with production of coal and oil. While the system carbon dioxide emissions are reduced in most scenarios, total carbon dioxide equivalent emissions show an increase in scenarios in which natural gas prices remain low and, simultaneously, methane emissions from natural gas production are higher.     

Life cycle analysis of vehicles powered by a fuel cell and by internal combustion engine for Canada

The transportation sector is responsible for a great percentage of the greenhouse gas emissions as well as the energy consumption in the world. Canada is the second major emitter of carbon dioxide in the world. The need for alternative fuels, other than petroleum, and the need to reduce energy consumption and greenhouse gases emissions are the main reasons behind this study. In this study, a full life cycle analysis of an internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV) and a fuel cell vehicle (FCV) has been carried out. The impact of the material and fuel used in the vehicle on energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions is analyzed for Canada. The data collected from the literature shows that the energy consumption for the production of 1 kg of aluminum is five times higher than that of 1 kg of steel, although higher aluminum content makes vehicles lightweight and more energy efficient during the vehicle use stage. Greenhouse gas regulated emissions and energy use in transportation (GREET) software has been used to analyze the fuel life cycle. The life cycle of the fuel consists of obtaining the raw material, extracting the fuel from the raw material, transporting, and storing the fuel as well as using the fuel in the vehicle. Four different methods of obtaining hydrogen were analyzed; using coal and nuclear power to produce electricity and extraction of hydrogen through electrolysis and via steam reforming of natural gas in a natural gas plant and in a hydrogen refueling station. It is found that the use of coal to obtain hydrogen generates the highest emissions and consumes the highest energy. Comparing the overall life cycle of an ICEV and a FCV, the total emissions of an FCV are 49% lower than an ICEV and the energy consumption of FCV is 87% lower than that of ICEV. Further, CO₂ emissions during the hydrogen fuel production in a central plant can be easily captured and sequestrated. The comparison carried out in this study between FCV and ICEV is extended to the use of recycled material. It is found that using 100% recycled material can reduce energy consumption by 45% and carbon dioxide emissions by 42%, mainly due to the reduced use of electricity during the manufacturing of the material.     

中国中长期碳减排战略目标初探(Ⅲ)——石油能源产品在交通运输等行业中的应用和碳减排

在我国中长期的终端能源需求中石油将占约15%的份额,其中55%～60%将被用于交通运输行业。逐步减少交通运输领域石油能源产品的使用量,对减少能源消费总量和二氧化碳排放量十分重要。目前国内外研究机构预测的中国2050年货运周转总量(8×104～9×104Gt.km)及公路货运周转量均明显偏高,造成预测的运输燃料消耗量太高,这也反映出调整中国经济产业结构和进出口贸易结构的紧迫性。减少私人乘用车的拥有量和出行量也是节能减排的关键,采用西方发达国家私人乘用车的比例,预测中国2050年将拥有5×108～6×108辆乘用车不符合中国人口众多、城市中心区人口密度的特点,将乘用车数量控制在3.0×108辆的水平比较恰当。目前全球运输领域二氧化碳排放量约占总排放量的20%～25%,中国运输领域的二氧化碳排放量将逐步上升,占总排放量的份额将从目前的7%提高到2050年的30%以上。应努力采取各种措施,使2050年乘用车的二氧化碳排放强度降低到40g/km的水平。除了减少化石能源石油产品使用量、使用生物质燃料、推广纯电动汽车和开发燃料电池汽车外,改变出行方式、发展方便快捷的公共交通显得十分重要。预计我国2050年燃料电池汽车将占到小汽车保有量的20%左右,纯电动汽车占30%左右,各种混合动力汽车将占50%左右。为了使中国2050年二氧化碳排放总量控制在40×108～50×108t的水平,有可能也有必要将石油的使用量控制在6.0×108t,交通运输领域石油能源产品使用量控制在4.0×108t以下。     

Analysis of policies to reduce oil consumption and greenhouse-gas emissions from the US transportation sector

Even as the US debates an economy-wide CO₂ cap-and-trade policy the transportation sector remains a significant oil security and climate change concern. Transportation alone consumes the majority of the US’s imported oil and produces a third of total US Greenhouse-Gas (GHG) emissions. This study examines different sector-specific policy scenarios for reducing GHG emissions and oil consumption in the US transportation sector under economy-wide CO₂ prices. The 2009 version of the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) National Energy Modeling System (NEMS), a general equilibrium model of US energy markets, enables quantitative estimates of the impact of economy-wide CO₂ prices and various transportation-specific policy options. We analyze fuel taxes, continued increases in fuel economy standards, and purchase tax credits for new vehicle purchases, as well as the impacts of combining these policies. All policy scenarios modeled fail to meet the Obama administration’s goal of reducing GHG emissions 14% below 2005 levels by 2020. Purchase tax credits are expensive and ineffective at reducing emissions, while the largest reductions in GHG emissions result from increasing the cost of driving, thereby damping growth in vehicle miles traveled.     

Energy and environmental balance of biogas for dual-fuel mobile applications

Considerable research is currently being devoted to seeking alternative fuels to comply with transportation needs while reducing the environmental impact of this sector. Within the transport activity sector, on road vehicles and agricultural machinery require around 2 Mtoe energy in France. The anaerobic digestion of farm waste could roughly cover these needs. This paper aims to study the environmental and energy interest of this short power supply path. An ideal biogas production system has been built up from the average characteristics of current rural biogas plants in France. Pollutant emissions, energy demands and production are assessed for various scenarios in order to produce methane for dual fuel engines. Life cycle assessment (LCA) is used to evaluate the environmental impact of dual fuel agricultural machines, compared to diesel engines. The energy balance is always in disfavour of biogas fuel, whereas LCA energy indicators indicate a benefit for biogas production. This gap is related to the way in which the input of biomass energy is handled: in conventional biofuel LCA, this energy is not taken into account. A carbon balance is then presented to discuss the impact of biogas on climate change. Dual fuel engines were found to be interesting for their small impact. We also show, however, how the biogenic carbon assumption and the choice of allocation for the avoided methane emissions of anaerobic digestion are crucial in quantifying CO₂ savings. Other environmental issues of biogas fuel were examined. Results indicate that are management and green electricity are the key points for a sustainable biogas fuel. It is concluded that biofuel environmental damage is reduced if energy needs during biofuel production are covered by the production process itself. As agricultural equipment is used during the biofuel production process, this implies that a high substitution rate should be used for this equipment.     

Price trends and volatility scenarios for designing forest sector transformation

Potential scenarios for the forest bioeconomy are heavily reliant on price assumptions; in particular, any abrupt changes in prices have a profound impact on the relevancy of any sector analysis. The objective of this paper was to demonstrate a new forest sector approach for incorporating price uncertainties in order to improve our assessment of investment decision making alternatives. Methodologically, we linked a multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model (mGARCH (1,1)) with three global land use scenarios that are of strategic importance to the forest bioeconomy. The three scenarios were formulated as i) a business as usual scenario, ii) a high biomass usage scenario and iii) a no-growth scenario. Our results indicate an upward trend in prices over time for all three scenarios and for most woody biomass commodities. Under all scenarios, price volatility in the forest sector would be smaller than that for the fossil fuel energy (i.e. oil and natural gas). Price volatilities from fossil fuel markets are positively influencing woody biomass price volatility and positively influencing pulp volatility. These results are discussed in the context of a case study describing investment alternatives for a district heating facility with options for: woody biomass, natural gas, or heating oil.     

Catching the hydrogen train: economics-driven green hydrogen adoption potential in the United Arab Emirates

The establishment of a hydrogen economy for domestic use and energy exports is increasingly attractive to fossil fuel exporting countries. This paper quantifies the potential of green hydrogen in the United Arab Emirates, using an integrated adoption model based on global technoeconomic trends and local costs. We consider the impact of varying hydrogen, oil, natural gas, and carbon prices on the economics of green H₂ adoption. In our Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario, we observe economic viability in UAE industries between 2032 and 2038 at H₂ prices between $0.95/kg and $1.35/kg based on electrolyzer cost assumptions, solar forecasts and learning rates. We also note rapid scale-up to large export-oriented production capacities across our scenarios. However, if cost reductions slow or gas prices return to historical lows, additional interventions such as carbon pricing would be required to fully decarbonize in alignment with the 2050 net-zero target.     

交通运输业能耗现状及未来走势分析

低碳经济要求交通运输有效、合理地使用能源,优化配置各种交通工具,降低能耗。近年来,我国交通运输业能耗增长率总体上高于全社会能耗增长率,占全社会能耗比重基本维持在7.5%左右。各种运输方式的能耗主要集中在油耗上,2007年交通运输业汽煤柴3种油耗叠加在一起,占全社会油耗比重近70%。交通运输中电能利用效率较高,节电效果好于全社会,电耗占全社会电耗比重从2002年的2.07%降至2007年的1.63%,但占全国交通运输能耗比重仅10%左右,能耗结构不合理现象并未得到改善。2008年国家铁路单位运输工作量综合能耗比上年降低3.1%,2009年我国铁路电气化率达到41.9%,铁路能耗结构出现根本性改善和优化,开始转变为以电耗为主。公路运输油耗总量呈快速增长趋势,百吨公里油耗指标呈稳中略升态势,节能空间和潜能较大。水运(含港口)能耗2004年之前呈上升趋势,之后下降趋势明显,约占交通运输业总能耗的15%。民航每吨公里油耗从2002年的0.364kg降至2007年的0.309kg,航油消耗增长率基本维持在12%上下,有较为明显的减弱趋势。未来10年,我国交通运输能源消耗总量将进一步攀升,虽然能耗结构将得到一定程度优化,电耗比重会迅速增长,但由于公路能耗在交通运输能耗中占有绝对比重,故难以从根本上改善交通运输以油耗为主的结构特点。我国交通运输业应逐步调整到以铁路为主导的各种交通方式协调发展的模式上来,最大限度地降低运输业油耗在整个交通运输行业中的比重,"以电代油"。     

Oil and natural gas prices and greenhouse gas emission mitigation

The hikes in hydrocarbon prices during the last years have lead to concern about investment choices in the energy system and uncertainty about the costs for mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions. On the one hand, high prices of oil and natural gas increase the use of coal; on the other hand, the cost difference between fossil-based energy and non-carbon energy options decreases. We use the global energy model TIMER to explore the energy system impacts of exogenously forced low, medium and high hydrocarbon price scenarios, with and without climate policy. We find that without climate policy high hydrocarbon prices drive electricity production from natural gas to coal. In the transport sector, high hydrocarbon prices lead to the introduction of alternative fuels, especially biofuels and coal-based hydrogen. This leads to increased emissions of CO₂. With climate policy, high hydrocarbon prices cause a shift in electricity production from a dominant position of natural gas with carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) to coal-with-CCS, nuclear and wind. In the transport sector, the introduction of hydrogen opens up the possibility of CCS, leading to a higher mitigation potential at the same costs. In a more dynamic simulation of carbon price and oil price interaction the effects might be dampened somewhat.     

Environmental impact assessment of hydrogen-based auxiliary power system onboard

The maritime transportation sector globally depends on fossil resources while this option is both diminishing and causing serious environmental and air pollution issues. Recently, hydrogen energy becomes one of the key alternatives addressing these concerns under the increasing press effect of the international community.The use of hydrogen as an energy source in ships is provided by fuel cell technologies. Although there are many types of fuel cells, Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cell (PEMFC) is the most widely used fuel cell type in the maritime industry. The most important handicap for the use of hydrogen in ships seems to be the production and storage of it. For this reason, fuel cell technology and hydrogen production and storage systems must be developed in order to use hydrogen as the main propulsion system in long-distance transportation in the maritime sector.In this study, Reference Energy System (RES) is established for a chemical tanker ship to determine the current energy flow from various resources to demands. Then the appropriate parameters are assigned and this framework is specified by the respective data. Following this phase; the current situation has been developed as the base scenario and analyzed by using the Low Emission Analysis Programme (LEAP) energy modeling platform. Additionally, two alternative scenarios including the hydrogen-based have been applied against the base scenario to compare the environmental results in the 2017–2050 time period. When the results are evaluated, it is predicted that although it is not sufficient for IMO and EMSA targets, implementation of hydrogen contributes to the carbon emission reduction positively and it will be more beneficial to apply to the main drive system with the technological developments to be made in the near future.     

China on the move: Oil price explosion?

Rapid expansion of highway and jet traffic in China has created a surge of demand for oil products, putting pressure on world energy markets and petroleum product prices. This paper examines trends in freight and passenger traffic to assess how growth in China's transport demand relates to growth in China's economy, as well as the energy intensity of transport. Based on assumptions about demand elasticity and energy intensity, a range of scenarios is developed for China's oil demand through 2020. Incremental oil demand from China's transport sector is then compared with world oil demand projections to assess the likely impact on world oil prices. The finding is that new demand from China's transport sector would likely raise world oil prices in 2020 by 1–3% in reference scenarios or by 3–10% if oil supply investment is constrained.     

Scenario analysis on alternative fuel/vehicle for China’s future road transport: Life-cycle energy demand and GHG emissions

The rapid growth of vehicles has resulted in continuing growth in China’s oil demand. This paper analyzes future trends of both direct and life cycle energy demand (ED) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in China’s road transport sector, and assesses the effectiveness of possible reduction measures by using alternative vehicles/fuels. A model is developed to derive a historical trend and to project future trends. The government is assumed to do nothing additional in the future to influence the long-term trends in the business as usual (BAU) scenario. Four specific scenarios are used to describe the future cases where different alternative fuel/vehicles are applied. The best case scenario is set to represent the most optimized case. Direct ED and GHG emissions would reach 734 million tonnes of oil equivalent and 2384 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent by 2050 in the BAU case, respectively, more than 5.6 times of 2007 levels. Compared with the BAU case, the relative reductions achieved in the best case would be 15.8% and 27.6% for life cycle ED and GHG emissions, respectively. It is suggested for future policy implementation to support sustainable biofuel and high efficient electric-vehicles, and the deployment of coal-based fuels accompanied with low-carbon technology.     

Are HFC buses a feasible alternative for urban transportation in Paraguay?

Paraguay is very rich in hydropower and a net importer of fossil fuels. Besides, in Paraguay, the transportation sector counts for a big share of the total energy demand. So if this sector would be changed to clean fuel, imported oil dependence and air pollution will be reduced dramatically. This paper assesses the feasibility of HFC urban buses implementation in the transportation sector in Paraguay. In general, annual transportation cost for a fleet of 55 HFC urban buses is estimated in US$ 33,682,581 compared with US$ 40,612,741.84 for diesel urban buses, which indicates that this technology could be an economical and environmentally clean alternative to substitute diesel urban buses in the Paraguayan transportation sector. These results are strongly linked to the chosen boundary conditions, such as electricity price and availability, the electrolytic hydrogen demand and the basic electrolyser's management.     

Cost-effectiveness analysis of algae energy production in the EU

Today’s society relies heavily on fossil fuels as a main energy source. Global energy demand increase, energy security and climate change are the main drivers of the transition towards alternative energy sources. This paper analyses algal biodiesel production for the EU road transportation and compares it to the fossil fuels and 1st generation biofuels. A cost-effectiveness analysis was used to aggregate private and external costs and derive the social cost of each fuel. The following externalities were internalized: emissions (GHG and non-GHG), food prices impact, pesticides/fertilizers use and security of supply. Currently the social cost of producing algal biodiesel at 52.3 € GJ⁻¹ is higher than rapeseed biodiesel (36.0 € GJ⁻¹) and fossil fuels (15.8 € GJ⁻¹). Biotechnology development, high crude oil prices and high carbon value are the key features of the scenario where algal biodiesel outcompetes all other fuels. A substantial investment into the biotechnology sector and comprehensive environmental research and policy are required to make that scenario a reality.     

Reduction potentials of energy demand and GHG emissions in China's road transport sector

Rapid growth of road vehicles, private vehicles in particular, has resulted in continuing growth in China's oil demand and imports, which has been widely accepted as a major factor effecting future oil availability and prices, and a major contributor to China's GHG emission increase. This paper is intended to analyze the future trends of energy demand and GHG emissions in China's road transport sector and to assess the effectiveness of possible reduction measures. A detailed model has been developed to derive a reliable historical trend of energy demand and GHG emissions in China's road transport sector between 2000 and 2005 and to project future trends. Two scenarios have been designed to describe the future strategies relating to the development of China's road transport sector. The ‘Business as Usual’ scenario is used as a baseline reference scenario, in which the government is assumed to do nothing to influence the long-term trends of road transport energy demand. The ‘Best Case’ scenario is considered to be the most optimized case where a series of available reduction measures such as private vehicle control, fuel economy regulation, promoting diesel and gas vehicles, fuel tax and biofuel promotion, are assumed to be implemented. Energy demand and GHG emissions in China's road transport sector up to 2030 are estimated in these two scenarios. The total reduction potentials in the ‘Best Case’ scenario and the relative reduction potentials of each measure have been estimated.