Energy efficiency developments in the Dutch energy-intensive manufacturing industry, 1980–2003

We studied energy efficiency trends in the Dutch manufacturing industry between 1995 and 2003 using indicators based on publicly available physical production and specific energy consumption data. We estimated annual primary energy efficiency improvements in this period at 1.3% on average, with the individual sub-sectors ranging between −0.1% and 1.5%. Energy efficiency developments with respect to electricity, fuels/heat and non-energy use have been monitored separately and are shown to differ significantly (for the sum of the sectors studied: 1.9% for electricity, 2.6% for fuels/heat and −0.1% for non-energy use). We combined our results with those from a previous, similar study for 1980–1995 and show that over the full time period, efficiency improvements of 1% per year have been achieved on average. Based on comparison with other sources and a detailed uncertainty analysis, we conclude that we developed a reliable top-down monitoring framework for studying energy efficiency trends of the manufacturing industry that can also be applied in other countries where similar data are available. We also showed that substantial differences exist between energy consumption data available from energy statistics and according to the Long Term Agreement monitoring reports, stressing the need for ongoing independent checks of available energy consumption data to avoid problems in future evaluations of energy efficiency policies.     

Reforming fossil fuel prices in India: Dilemma of a developing economy

Over the period between 1990–1 and 2012–3, fossil fuel use on farms has risen and its indirect use in farming, particularly for non-energy purposes, is also growing. Consequently, both energy intensity and fossil fuel intensity are rising for Indian agriculture. But, these are declining for the aggregate Indian economy. Thus, revision of fossil fuel prices acquires greater significance for Indian agriculture than for rest of the economy. There are significant differences across crops. The crop-level analysis is supplemented by an alternative approach that utilizes a three-sector input–output (I–O) model for the Indian economy representing farming, fossil fuels, and rest of economy. Fossil fuels sector is assessed to portray, in general, strong forward linkages. The increase in total cost of farming, for a given change in fossil fuel prices, is estimated as a multiple of increase in direct input cost of fossil fuels in farming. From the three-sector aggregated economy this multiple was estimated at 3.99 for 1998–9. But it grew to 6.7 in 2007–8. The findings have stronger ramifications than commonly recognized, for inflation and cost of implementing the policy on food security.     

Identifying energy inefficient industries vulnerable to trade dependence of energy sources

Korea has transformed itself from a developing country to an Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development member country and a donor for developing nations. It has ranked among the world’s top 10 energy-consuming countries. Its industrial sector depends heavily on the utilization of fossil fuels and consumes more than 45% of national energy expenditure. Plausible concerns about industrial energy inefficiency can upset the structural dependence of the whole Korean industry on the energy sector. Using Korea’s industrial input–output data from 2010 to 2012, this research conducts a simulation analysis on trade suspension resulting from shocks provided by each of the six energy industries. This study investigates the propagation of these shocks across 160 industries. We found that the petroleum, electricity, and town gas industries are the most influential energy industries in terms of diffusion of trade shocks to other industries, and the number of propagation steps of energy shocks decreases over time due to the industries’ unimproved energy inefficiency. Therefore, governments need to address this interdependence within energy sectors and between energy and non-energy industries, with integrated policies for energy efficiency and contingency plans.     

Is there an optimum level for renewable energy?

Because continued heavy use of fossil fuel will lead to both global climate change and resource depletion of easily accessible fuels, many researchers advocate a rapid transition to renewable energy (RE) sources. In this paper we examine whether RE can provide anywhere near the levels of primary energy forecast by various official organisations in a business-as-usual world. We find that the energy costs of energy will rise in a non-linear manner as total annual primary RE output increases. In addition, increasing levels of RE will lead to increasing levels of ecosystem maintenance energy costs per unit of primary energy output. The result is that there is an optimum level of primary energy output, in the sense that the sustainable level of energy available to the economy is maximised at that level. We further argue that this optimum occurs at levels well below the energy consumption forecasts for a few decades hence.     

Incorporating uncertainty analysis into life cycle estimates of greenhouse gas emissions from biomass production

Before further investments are made in utilizing biomass as a source of renewable energy, both policy makers and the energy industry need estimates of the net greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions expected from substituting biobased fuels for fossil fuels. Such GHG reductions depend greatly on how the biomass is cultivated, transported, processed, and converted into fuel or electricity. Any policy aiming to reduce GHGs with biomass-based energy must account for uncertainties in emissions at each stage of production, or else it risks yielding marginal reductions, if any, while potentially imposing great costs.This paper provides a framework for incorporating uncertainty analysis specifically into estimates of the life cycle GHG emissions from the production of biomass. We outline the sources of uncertainty, discuss the implications of uncertainty and variability on the limits of life cycle assessment (LCA) models, and provide a guide for practitioners to best practices in modeling these uncertainties. The suite of techniques described herein can be used to improve the understanding and the representation of the uncertainties associated with emissions estimates, thus enabling improved decision making with respect to the use of biomass for energy and fuel production.     

Renewable energy options: What could developing countries expect from them?

In order to make a realistic assessment of the energy alternatives for the developing world, the present conditions of the developing region, consisting of Africa and Asia (excluding South Africa, Japan and China), are studied first. Highlights include: low commercial energy consumption (0.2 kW/cap), heavy dependence on oil and noncommercial energy, and especially poor conditions of the rural energy supply.Since fossil fuels need to be conserved and nuclear energy is not an option for many of the developing countries, what renewable options could bring is evaluated in detail. Socio-techno-economic parameters for developing and employing renewable energy sources are identified for biogas, wood plantation, solar, and hydropower. The study concludes that the developing countries could obtain 35% of the energy in 2030 with the low-demand scenario of 0.9 kW/cap. However, with the high-demand scenario of 1.4 kW/cap, active policies in nuclear energy and fossil fuels as well would be required.     

Costs and CO2 benefits of recovering,refining and transporting logging residues for fossil fuel replacement

There are many possible systems for recovering, refining, and transporting logging residues for use as fuel. Here we analyse costs, primary energy and CO₂ benefits of various systems for using logging residues locally, nationally or internationally. The recovery systems we consider are a bundle system and a traditional chip system in a Nordic context. We also consider various transport modes and distances, refining the residues into pellets, and replacing different fossil fuels. Compressing of bundles entails costs, but the cost of chipping is greatly reduced if chipping is done on a large scale, providing an overall cost-effective system. The bundle system entails greater primary energy use, but its lower dry-matter losses mean that more biomass per hectare can be extracted from the harvest site. Thus, the potential replacement of fossil fuels per hectare of harvest area is greater with the bundle system than with the chip system. The fuel-cycle reduction of CO₂ emissions per harvest area when logging residues replace fossil fuels depends more on the type of fossil fuel replaced, the logging residues recovery system used and the refining of the residues, than on whether the residues are transported to local, national or international end-users. The mode and distance of the transport system has a minor impact on the CO₂ emission balance.     

Benchmarking the energy use of energy-intensive industries in industrialized and in developing countries

Improved energy efficiency is among the key measures for CO₂ emission abatement in the industry. Energy benchmark curves provide data measured at individual plants and they offer a basis to estimate the sectoral energy efficiency improvement potentials (IP) compared to a best practice technology (BPT) currently in operation worldwide. In this paper, we estimate the BPT energy use of 17 industry sectors based on such curves or energy indicators prepared at country-level. We compare BPT data with current energy use to estimate the IP. According to our analysis, BPT offers improvement potentials of 27 ± 8% worldwide. This is equivalent to 32.5 ± 9.6 EJ (exajoules) of final energy savings worldwide, of which three-quarters can be achieved in developing countries. Due to lack of benchmark curves and limited data availability for developing countries, our results include uncertainties. We used literature data at country-level and international energy statistics to fill data gaps and to develop energy indicators. Quality of these data should be improved and benchmark data needs to be collected for more sectors. By doing so, energy benchmarking could become a key tool to estimate energy saving potentials and energy indicators could serve as strong supplementary methodology.     

Mind the gap The vicious circle of measuring automobile fuel use

We review the circularity between estimates of automobile use, fuel consumption and fuel intensity. We find that major gaps exist between estimates of road gasoline, the quantity most often used to represent automobile fuel use in economic studies of transport fuel use, and the actual sales data of gasoline, diesel and other fuels used for automobiles. We note that significant uncertainties exist in values of both the number of automobiles in use and the distance each is driven, which together yield total automobile use. We present our own calculations for total automobile fuel use for a variety of OECD countries. We comment briefly on the impact of these gaps on econometric estimates of the price and income elasticities of automobile fuel use. We show that improper use of the circularity often leads to gross errors in estimating fuel intensity and other indicators of energy use for personal transport.     

A ‘must-go path’ scenario for sustainable development and the role of nuclear energy in the 21st century

An increase in the world population has accelerated the consumption of fossil fuels and deepened the pollution of global environment. As a result of these human activities, it is now difficult to clearly guarantee the sustainable future of humankind. An intuitional ‘must-go path’ scenario for the sustainable development of human civilization is proposed by extrapolating the human historical data over 30 years between 1970 and 2000. One of the most important parameters in order to realize the ‘must-go path’ scenario is the sustainability of energy without further pollution. In some countries an expanded use of nuclear energy is advantageous to increase sustainability, but fast reactor technology and closed fuel cycle have to be introduced to make it sustainable. In other countries, the development of cost-effective renewable energy, and the clean use of coal and oil are urgently needed to reduce pollution. The effect of fast nuclear reactor technology on sustainability as an option for near-term energy source is detailed in this paper. More cooperation between countries and worldwide collaboration coordinated by international organizations are essential to make the ‘must-go path’ scenario real in the upcoming 20 or 30 years.     

Electric power requirement for large-scale production of hydrogen fuel for the world vehicle fleet

Replacement of fossil fuels by hydrogen in motor vehicles throughout the world is postulated to occur over the next 50 years as mass production of fuel-cell engines accelerates. For the estimated size of the world vehicle fleet by 2050, large-scale electrolysis of water may become the primary means to produce hydrogen in sufficient quantity. Unlike petroleum production, which is concentrated in only a few well-endowed countries in the world, electrolytic production of hydrogen can be carried out in all countries as an indigenous supply of fuel. However, each nation will require a significant increase in the rate of electric energy consumption and a concomitant increase in electric power generating facilities. A dynamic model was used to estimate the annual total electric energy requirement to sustain long-term growth of hydrogen fuel production in two time sequences. In the first sequence, from 2000 to 2010, when a fuel-cell engine industry is likely to expand rapidly, extrapolation of historic data on world population, vehicle, traffic, and energy statistics from official agencies provides the initial conditions in year 2010 for the second time sequence. In the second sequence, the model examines a range of growth scenarios to the year 2050, when a significant fraction of the total world vehicle fleet could be operated with hydrogen fuel. The model calculations show that even with improved energy consumption efficiency of electrolytic production facilities, the additional electric energy demand to sustain growth of hydrogen fuel production will require installation of significant additional electric power generating capacity throughout the world.     

Linking historic developments and future scenarios of industrial energy use in the Netherlands between 1993 and 2040

Monitoring energy efficiency improvements is essential for policy evaluation and for future policy making. We estimate the annual energy efficiency improvements achieved in six Dutch industry sectors between 1993 and 2008 by using a bottom-up model. This model incorporates the production data and specific energy consumption values of 122 products. We estimate annual energy efficiency improvements of 1.0 % per annum (p.a.) for the total industry (excluding non-energy use); even though the results are subject to uncertainties due to errors in the energy statistics, we consider them as strong indication that Dutch industry needs to reinforce its efforts in energy efficiency. Based on historical achievements between 1989 and 2008, Business as Usual (BaU) scenarios project annual improvement potentials of 0.6–1.8 % p.a. until 2040. Based on literature review, this study estimates that implementing energy saving technologies can accelerate energy efficiency improvements to 2 % p.a. and beyond. Efficient combined heat and power technologies could increase these potentials further. These are beyond the historical achievements and BaU scenario projections. New policies will be required for technology development which ensures continuous energy efficiency improvements. The findings of this paper need to be extended by continuous monitoring and more scenario analyses with improved data.     

Artificial neural network analysis of world green energy use

This paper focuses on the analysis of world green energy consumption through artificial neural networks (ANN). In addition, the consumption is also analyzed of world primary energy including fossil fuels such as coal, oil and natural gas. A feed-forward back-propagation ANN is used for training and learning processes by taking into consideration data from the literature of world energy consumption from 1965 to 2004. Also, an ANN approach for forecasting world green energy consumption to the year 2050 is presented, and the consumption equations for different energy sources are derived. The environmental aspects of green energy and fossil fuels are discussed in detail. The resulting ANN-based equation curve profiles verify that the available economic reserves of fossil fuel resources are limited, and become “depleted” in the near future. It is expected that world green energy consumption will reach almost 62.74 EJ by 2010, and be on average 32.29% of total energy use between 2005 and 2025. However, world green energy and natural gas consumption will continue increasing after 2050, while world oil and coal consumption are expected to remain relatively stable after 2025 and 2045, respectively. The ANN approach appears to be a suitable method for forecasting energy consumption data, should be utilized in efforts to model world energy consumption.     

World trade in forest products and wood fuel

Wood fuel is a strategic resource for future energy supply and is usually utilised locally. Traditional use of wood fuel and other bioenergy has a share of 10–15% energy supply, used mainly for the household sector. The utilisation for industrial purposes is much smaller but is a strategic resource in the effort to fulfil the Kyoto agreement to replace fossil fuels and to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. Many industrialised countries already use a significant share of biofuels in their energy supply e.g. Nordic countries while others like some other European Union countries are planning to increase their use. Production and use of biofuels need to be carried out sustainable. Official statistics do not report trade in such detail that international trade in different biomass types can be fully identified. However, FAO and European Forestry Institute are important sources. In some countries, there is a growing interest in the international trade, because the trade can provide biofuels at lower prices, larger quantities and better quality than domestic alternatives. The first signs of an international market price for wood fuel are indicated in Europe. For the future both the use and the trade of wood fuel is expected to increase. Analyses for trade in charcoal, wood chips, fuel wood and wood residues made in this report identify ‘hot’ trade spots in Europe, in south East Asia and in North America.     

Prospects for the production of green hydrogen: Review of countries with high potential

The article provides a review of the current hydrogen production and the prospects for the development of the production of “green” hydrogen using renewable energy sources in various countries of the world that are leaders in this field. The potential of hydrogen energy in such countries and regions as Australia, the European Union, India, Canada, China, the Russian Federation, United States of America, South Korea, the Republic of South Africa, Japan and the northern countries of Africa is considered. These countries have significant potential for the production of hydrogen and “green” hydrogen, in particular through mining of fossil fuels and the use of renewable energy sources. The quantitative indicators of the production of “green” hydrogen in the future and the direction of its export are considered; the most developed hydrogen technologies in these countries are presented. The production of “green” hydrogen in most countries is the way to transition from the consumption of fossil fuels to the clean energy of the future, which will significantly improve the environmental situation, reduce greenhouse gas emissions and improve the energy independence of the regions.     

The feasibility of manufacturing wind turbines in Iran

It is known that the supplies of fossil fuels are limited and their utilization as energy sources causes environmental degradation due to incomplete combustion when used as energy source, in addition to this as the world population increases the demand for energy sources increases, therefore the issue of a gradual replacement of fossil fuels with renewable energy sources is of major consideration for most countries: Iran Bing located in Asian Middle East enjoys a great potential for producing some 6500 MW of electricity with wind energy. The feasibility of manufacturing wind turbines is investigated in this article.     

On the wind energy in Turkey

Increase in negative effects of fossil fuels on the environment has forced many countries, including Turkey, to use renewable energy sources. Today, clean, domestic and renewable energy is commonly accepted as the key for future life, not only for Turkey but also for the world. As wind energy is an alternative clean energy source compared to the fossil fuels that pollute the atmosphere, systems that convert wind energy to electricity have developed rapidly. Turkey is an energy importing country, more than half of the energy requirement has been supplied by imports. Turkey's domestic fossil fuel resources are extremely limited. In addition, Turkey's geographical location has several advantages for extensive use of wind power. In this context, renewable energy resources appear to be one of the most efficient and effective solutions for sustainable energy development and environmental pollution prevention in Turkey. Since wind energy will be used more and more in the future, its current potential, usage, and assessment in Turkey is the focus of the present study. The paper not only presents a review of the potential and utilization of the wind power in Turkey but also provides some guidelines for policy makers.     

The promise of clean energy

The world's energy system is at least a 1.5 trillion dollars market dominated by fossil fuels, where small changes can have a large influence on efforts to reach sustainability. Renewable energy sources are key to achieving this goal. Excluding traditional biomass, in 2001 renewables represented 4.4% of primary energy consumption, unevenly distributed between developed and developing countries. Environmental problems at local, regional and global levels, as well as external dependency and security of supply will persist if we rely on an energy future based on fossil fuels. Solutions encompass extending the life of fossil fuel reserves and expanding the share of renewable in the world energy system through top down and bottom up policies, described in this paper.