A hybrid approach to estimating the economic value of power system resilience

The costs that power interruptions impose on customers and society have emerged as essential considerations for decision-making about power system reliability and resilience. While the direct costs of localized and relatively short-duration power interruptions are well-understood, little is known about the full impact of widespread and long-duration power interruptions, especially the indirect costs and related economy-wide impacts of these events. As a result, the costs of widespread and long-duration power interruptions are generally not or only incompletely considered in utility planning activities. This paper describes a new approach for estimating the economic costs of widespread and long-duration power interruptions. This method involves using survey responses from utility customers to calibrate a regional economic model that can estimate both the direct and indirect costs of these events. Including better estimates of these costs will enhance both the comprehensiveness and completeness of the considerations relied on to support utility planning decisions, especially on grid-hardening strategies and other capital-intensive investments in electricity sector resilience.     

Seeking energy equity through energy storage

Numerous states have adopted legislation and policy measures aimed at achieving greater equity across essential energy services on which underserved communities rely to meet basic needs. Equity is highlighted in the Biden-Harris January 2021 Executive Order No. 13,985, “Advancing Racial Equity and Support for Underserved Communities” (Exec. Order (2021)). When applied to the energy & utilities sector, ”energy equity” refers to the condition in which energy is provided to all in a consistent and systematically fair, just, and impartial manner regardless of race, geography, social standing, or economic position.Following this definition, energy equity is fundamental to healthy and prosperous social and economic systems, and contributes to regional and national security and stability. Data show that underserved populations generally suffer disproportionately from power outages, high energy prices, and polluting energy generation facilities. Numerous policy measures that include energy storage (i.e., residential, commercial, and utility scale batteries, and other technologies) can help provide energy equity to all populations. These policy measures address procurement mandates, replacement of peaker units, financial incentives, ownership policies and community projects, integrated resource planning and pilot programs, resilience, and long duration energy storage.     

Equity-based grid resilience: How do we get there?

The power system worldwide is facing challenges from a changing climate. Decision-makers are tasked with increasing the smartness and resilience of the energy infrastructure to reduce the negative impacts to customers, with the help of new technologies such as household renewable energy generators and electric vehicles. However, a largely overlooked topic is equity, and how the burdens and benefits of the power system are distributed to different communities. To fill this gap, this paper provides a thorough review of the implication of equity in the power system, the significance of guaranteeing energy equity both in everyday operation and disaster management, and the ongoing efforts to plan for equable resilience in various fields. Finally, a holistic power grid resilience enhancement framework is proposed that covers different stages of disaster management and different dimensions of energy equity.     

Formulation of Resilience Index of Urban Infrastructure Using Belief Functions

Most urban infrastructure are interdependent in various ways. A variety of qualitative explanations are presented in the literature to analyze and address resiliency and vulnerability. Unfortunately, most of the explanation do not provide an objective resilience index computation. This paper attempts to develop a resilience index for urban infrastructure using a belief function framework. The belief function framework can handle subjective, independent information and hierarchical data, all of which are characteristics of the inputs required for proper resilience index analyses. The steps of the analyses are presented using a prototype urban highway infrastructure network.      

基于支持度-置信度-提升度的配网自动化系统数据挖掘算法及应用

受到通信或其它设备及配网二次回路故障、缺陷及运行单位人为修改的影响,本已庞大、复杂的配网自动化控制系统数据库的数据质量问题更为严重,数据不准确、不一致、不可靠等问题层出不穷。针对这一问题,文章设计了一种基于支持度-置信度-提升度框架的挖掘算法,从配网自动化控制系统历史数据库中低质量的海量数据中智能挖掘频繁项集,建立符合配网自动化动作逻辑的、具备整体一致性的强关联、强相关规则。文章以具体案例详细介绍了该算法的应用,并通过分析说明该算法不仅为建立客观、合理的配网自动化系统指标评价体系提供可靠、准确的数据挖掘方法以及科学的理论依据,而且可以为管理部门日常运行、管理、维护、消缺工作提供智能的判定工具,节约人力、物力及时间成本,具有很强的工程意义。     

弹性电网关键技术研究的进展与展望

现代电网发展日益复杂、新的供电威胁与日俱增,特别是在处于大量新能源系统并网发电的发展潮流中,传统的电力系统在遭遇突发冲击或扰动时会显得格外脆弱,已不能满足用户或电力企业愈发严格的用电质量要求。为了使电网在小概率-高损失的事件中仍能保持基本的运行功能,具备抵御性、适应性以及快速恢复能力的“弹性电网”得到了众多学者的青睐,其可有效提高系统的弹性恢复力,增强系统的抗灾抗扰动能力,进而提高系统的整体运营能力。着眼于弹性电网的优化策略,基于弹性恢复力理论阐述了弹性电网的基本架构,根据系统弹性提升的方法分析了发展弹性电网所用到的关键技术,从传统电网到未来电网的演化过程中展望了弹性电网的发展趋势。     

Compass: optimizing the migration cost vs. application performance tradeoff

We investigate methodologies for placement and migration of logical data stores in virtualized storage systems leading to optimum system configuration in a dynamic workload scenario. The aim is to optimize the tradeoff between the performance or operational cost improvement resulting from changes in store placement, and the cost imposed by the involved data migration step. We propose a unified economic utility based framework in which the tradeoff can be formulated as a utility maximization problem where the utility of a configuration is defined as the difference between the benefit of a configuration and the cost of moving to the configuration. We present a storage management middleware framework and architecture Compass that allows systems designers to plug-in different placement as well as migration techniques for estimation of utilities associated with different configurations. The biggest obstacle in optimizing the placement benefit and migration cost tradeoff is the exponential number of possible configurations that one may have to evaluate. We present algorithms that explore the configuration space efficiently and compute a candidate set of configurations that optimize this cost-benefit tradeoff. Our algorithms have many desirable properties including local optimality. Comprehensive experimental studies demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed framework and exploration algorithms, as our algorithms outperform migration cost-oblivious placement strategies by upto 40% on real OLTP traces for many settings.     

基于运行韧性评价的配电网电压暂降治理评估

随着中国生产制造水平的提升,配电网中敏感负荷日趋增加,电压暂降及短时中断造成的经济损失日趋严重,而当前的可靠性及韧性的评价方法无法评价短时间尺度下配电网持续供电的能力,也难以反映电压暂降的影响程度,因而无法提供量化指标为电压暂降治理作规划参考.文中在挖掘电网以往评估方法内涵的基础上,针对含敏感负荷的配电网,考虑网架结构...     

Integrating resilience in power system planning: A note for practitioners

In this article, we examine the need for integrating resilience against natural disasters in power system planning through a review of the recent literature including guidance notes prepared by multilateral development banks, US Department of Energy and the wider research community. We present the challenges faced by practitioners in implementing resilience-centric analyses, especially in developing countries where data availability is a critical constraint and development of bespoke models for each system/country is an arduous if not an impossible task. This is followed by a discussion on how such planning analysis may still be constructed within the limitation of data, methodology and tools.     

上海电网智能调度体系初期实践综述

以上海特大城市电网智能调度体系总体架构为基础,主要阐述了智能调度体系建设在电网安全防控、调度协同管理、新能源接入管理、技术应用发展体系方面的第一阶段应用实践。     

Towards a Conceptual Framework for Resilience Engineering

As systems continue to grow in size and complexity, they pose increasingly greater safety and risk management challenges. Today when complex systems fail and mishaps occur, there is an initial tendency to attribute the failure to human error. Yet research has repeatedly shown that more often than not it is not human error but organizational factors that set up adverse conditions that increase the likelihood of system failure. Resilience engineering is concerned with building systems that are able to circumvent accidents through anticipation, survive disruptions through recovery, and grow through adaptation. This paper defines resilience from different perspectives, provides a conceptual framework for understanding and analyzing disruptions, and presents principles and heuristics based on lessons learned that can be employed to build resilient systems.      

Valuing distributed energy resources: Combined heat and power and the modern grid

In this paper we examine how decision makers can more precisely assess the costs of disruptive weather events and the value of resilient distributed energy systems such as combined heat and power (CHP). CHP makes up a small percentage of the energy infrastructure in the United States despite its substantial efficiency and resilience benefits. In part this is because the resilience value of CHP is not fully accounted for in energy infrastructure project cost screenings. To capture this benefit in investment decisions, we propose a framework for a metric called the Distributed Energy Resource Resiliency Value (DERRV) and discuss how such a metric might be applied to CHP.     

Evaluation and Analysis of Logistic Network Resilience With Application to Aircraft Servicing

To analyze the resilience of logistic networks, it is proposed to use a quantificational resilience evaluation approach. Firstly, the node resilience in a network is evaluated by its redundant resources, distributed suppliers and reachable deliveries. Then, an index of the total resilience of logistic network is calculated with the weighted sum of the node resilience. Based on the evaluation approach of resilience, the reasonable structure of the logistic networks is analyzed. A model is then studied to optimize the allocation of resources with connections, distribution centers or warehouses. Our approach has been used to study the resilience of logistic networks for aircraft maintenance and service and to guarantee the security and service quality of aeronautical systems. To monitor the operation of the logistic networks and enhance resilience, the architecture of a synthesized aircraft maintenance information management system and service logistic network is designed and being developed, which is called Resilience Information Management System for Aircraft Service (RIMAS). The research results have been provided to the decision makers of the aviation management sector in the Chu Chiang Delta of China. Good comments have been achieved, which shows that the approach has potential for application in practice.      

Centralized and decentralized optimal decision support for congestion management

This paper presents a framework to carry out optimal power flow in a coordinated multi-transaction/utilities decentralized system. An AC power flow model has been used in this work for independent optimal dispatch of each utility. The global economic optimal solution of the whole electric energy system with congestion management has also been done in this work using the interior point (IP) optimization procedure. In this approach, each participant tries to maximize its own profit with the help of information announced by the operator which are information related to system security constraints and public issues. The developed algorithm can be run in parallel, either to carry out numerical simulations or to obtain an optimal generation schedule in an actual multi-utility electric system. The study has been conducted on a three utility modified IEEE-30 bus system with two market models and six utility modified IEEE-118 bus system. The results clearly show the effectiveness of the suggested IP optimization based optimal generation schedule in decentralized scenario. It has been demonstrated that the suggested decentralized approach produces improved optimal dispatch solution with enhanced market benefits and can effectively manage the congestion in the system as compared to the centralized approach.     

深化应用WBS架构促进配网项目标准化管理实践

为更好地实现SG-ERP建设目标,促进配网标准化管理,无锡供电公司在深化应用江苏电力配网标准WBS架构的进程中,不断探索实践,以项目立项、设计、实施、竣工投运、转资、项目关闭和六大关键环节管控为重点,以系统限制和信息化考核为手段建立双重保障,有力地促进了无锡配网项目标准化管理和全过程监督管控能力。     

Using utility information to calibrate customer demand managementbehavior models

In times of stress customers can help a utility by means of voluntary demand management programs if they are offered the right incentives. The incentives offered can be optimized if the utility can estimate the outage or substitution costs of its customers. This paper illustrates how existing utility data can be used to predict customer demand management behavior. More specifically, it shows how estimated customer cost functions can be calibrated to help in designing efficient demand management contracts     

面向弹性提升的主动配电网重构与元件修复协同方法

极端事件会导致主动配电网出现多处故障且故障元件修复时间长,传统的故障恢复方法会使得系统的弹性低。针对主动配电网的故障恢复阶段,提出了一种面向弹性提升的重构与故障元件修复协同方法。首先,结合计及负荷重要程度的主动配电网弹性指标,分析出故障恢复阶段弹性提升的主要措施;在此基础上,提出重构与故障元件修复协同策略框架,给出交替协同中线路状态变量和节点负荷供电状态变量的更新与关联。其次,建立全过程故障元件修复和重构的目标函数。针对主动配电网含多分布式电源特点带来的故障元件上下游关系难以判别问题,提出基于消线解故障环法和圈源等效法的判别方法。最后,算例结果表明,所提方法能有效地提升主动配电网的弹性。     

Current practices and customer value-based distribution system reliability planning

Among the major issues facing utilities in today's competitive electricity market is the pressure to hold the line on rates and provide electricity with adequate quality and reliability. Utilities are increasingly recognizing that the level of supply reliability planned and designed into a system has to evolve away from levels determined basically on a technical framework using deterministic criteria, and toward a balance between minimizing costs and achieving a sustainable level of customer complaints. Assessment of the cost of maintaining a certain level of supply reliability or making incremental changes therein must include not only the utility's cost of providing such reliability and the potential revenue losses during outages, but also the interruption costs incurred by the affected customers during utility power outages. Such a cost-benefit analysis constitutes the focal point of the value-based reliability planning. Value-based reliability planning provides a rational and consistent framework for answering the fundamental economic question of how much reliability is adequate from the customer perspective and where a utility should spend its reliability dollars to optimize efficiency and satisfy customers' electricity requirements at the lowest cost. Costs to customers associated with varying levels of service reliability are significant factors that cannot be ignored. Explicit considerations of these customer interruption costs in developing supply reliability targets and in evaluating alternate proposals for network upgrade, maintenance, and system design must, therefore, be included in system planning and design process. The paper provides a brief overview of current deterministic planning practices in utility distribution system planning, and introduces a probabilistic customer value-based approach to alternate feed requirements planning for overhead distribution networks.     

计及弹性恢复的区域综合能源系统多目标优化调度

在能源互联网发展的背景下,区域综合能源系统成了高效清洁的终端用能载体。基于电-气-热多种能源耦合的系统框架,分析了区域综合能源系统的运行经济性,并计及潜在自然灾害的威胁,针对区域综合能源系统面临灾害的弹性恢复能力和系统运行经济性之间的矛盾问题,提出了一种多目标优化调度方法。通过多目标加权模糊规划的方法,对潜在自然灾害下提升恢复力造成的运行成本增加和系统整体运行经济性进行协调。最后,经算例验证所提多目标优化调度方法的可行性,通过结果分析证明牺牲一定的运行经济性可以有效增强区域综合能源系统应对自然灾害的恢复力。     

电力系统韧性评估与提升研究综述

随着极端天气(如飓风、地震和洪水)和人为攻击(网络、物理攻击)发生频率的不断提高,对电力系统安全稳定运行造成了严重影响,长时间停电和基础电气设施损坏的概率显著增加。为减小停电事故所带来的经济损失与社会影响,构建具备抵御力、适应力、恢复力的高韧性电力系统,无疑有着重要的理论价值与现实意义。针对此,首先,概述了电力系统韧性的基本概念和主要特征,比较了其与可靠性、安全性、鲁棒性之间的差异。其次,建立了从灾害建模到系统响应的韧性评估框架,依据静态评估和动态评估将韧性指标进行了分类,并进一步梳理了电力系统韧性评估指标体系。另外,从故障预防、故障响应、故障恢复3个方面出发,探讨了提升电力系统韧性的关键技术。最后,对电力系统韧性研究领域的未来发展方向进行了展望。