基于组合优化理论的用电量预测模型

为了提高用电量的预测精度, 提出了一种基于组合优化理论的用电量预测模型(AFSA-LSSVM). 首先相空间重构用电量学习样本, 然后将学习样本输入到最小二乘支持向量机进行训练, 并采用人工鱼群算法优化LSSVM参数, 建立最优的用电量预测模型, 最后采用仿真实验对模型性能进行测试. 结果表明, 相对于对比模型, AFSA-LSSVM可以准确刻画用电量的变化趋势, 提高用电量的预测精度, 预测结果更加可靠, 可以为决策者提供有价值决策信息.     

基于WLS-SVM回归模型的电力负荷预测

针对电力系统年用电量增长的特点,提出一种基于加权最小二乘支持向量机(LS-SVM)的电力负荷预测模型.与标准LS-SVM的电力预测方法比较,该模型能通过设置训练样本权重比例,实现样本优化选择,达到历史数据"重近轻远"的学习效果,从而能有效提高预测精度.通过具体实例验证,WLS-SVM模型预测精度明显优于标准LS-SVM模型,说明本文模型实现容易,鲁棒性好,预测精度高.     

多元宇宙优化算法优化WLSSVM的网络流量预测

高精度网络流量预测可以帮助管理人员了解网络流量变化态势,提高网络系统的稳定性,为了降低网络流量预测的误差,提出了基于多元宇宙优化算法优化加权最小二乘支持向量机的网络流量预测模型。首先采用网络流量历史数据,将其作为加权最小二乘支持向量机的输入向量,然后利用多元宇宙优化算法对加权最小二乘支持向量机参数寻优,从而得到最优的网络流量预测模型,最后采用具体网络流量预测应用实例对模型性能进行测试与分析,结果表明本模型可以准确描述网络流量的变化规律,预测误差很小,完全能够满足网络管理实际要求,相对于其他预测模型,本模型的网络流量预测精度得到了有效提高。     

时序峰值预测的最小二乘支持向量回归模型

针对最小二乘支持向量回归模型中,呈稀疏分布的时序峰值样本拟合预测误差偏大的问题,基于加权最小二乘思想,提出一种新的用于时序峰值预测的最小二乘支持向量回归模型.根据样本分布密度和输出期望幅值,优化了经验风险控制目标.解得模型的拟合预测误差不受样本分布的影响,而且在保持整体样本拟合预测精度的同时,对峰值样本的拟合预测精度有了显著提高.Lorenz时序预测和电力负荷预测的仿真结果表明了模型的有效性.     

基于灰色加权马尔可夫SCGM(1,1)c的交通事故预测

交通事故预测是交通安全评价、规划和决策的基础。基于灰色系统理论和马尔可夫链理论,应用系统云灰色模型SCGM(1,1)c拟合道路交通时序数据的总体趋势,所得拟合指标是随机波动的。马尔可夫链原理适合处理波动性大的系统过程,因此选用能更好解决随机波动性的加权马尔可夫链预测方法,提出一种用于道路交通事故次数预测的灰色加权马尔可夫SCGM(1,1)c模型,它适用于时间序列短,数据量少且随机波动不太大的动态过程预测。以某市1975—2010年道路交通事故次数为例进行了预测分析,结果表明该模型既能揭示交通事故次数变化的总体趋势,又能克服随机波动性数据对预测精度的影响,具有较强的工程实用性。     

基于马尔可夫链的轨迹预测

为了支持在城市交通网络上,对移动对象的位置进行有效的预测,提出了一种基于马尔可夫链的移动对象轨迹预测方法.该方法根据城市交通网络的特征,依靠统计并有效利用历史轨迹进行预测.最后讨论了数据结构和算法的一些优化,并分析了算法复杂度.实验证明加权马尔可夫链的轨迹预测给出了令人满意的结果.     

基于PSR-LSSVM的网络流量预测

为了提高网络流量预测精度,利用相空间重构和预测模型参数间的相互联系,提出一种遗传优化最小二乘支持向量机的网络流量预测方法。首先将相空间重构和最小二乘支持向量机参数作为遗传算法的个体,将模型预测精度作为个体适应度函数,然后通过遗传操作获得模型全局最优参数,最后通过网络流量仿真实验进行性能测试。结果表明,相对于传统预测方法,遗传优化最小二乘支持向量机提高了网络流量的预测精度,为网络流量预测提供了一种新的研究思路。     

年用电量预测的PLS-LSSVM模型

偏最小二乘法通过提取主成分能有效地消除变量间的多重共线性,最小二乘支持向量机能很好地逼近变量间的非线性关系。偏最小二乘与最小二乘支持向量机相结合用于年用电量的预测,充分发挥了两者的优点。对四川省1978～2007年的用电量进行了实证分析,与PLS模型和LSSV模型的预测成果进行了对比,结果表明年用电量预测的PLS-LSSVM模型有较高的精度。     

基于云模型的电力系统负荷组合预测

电力系统负荷预测的精确度决定着电网安全稳定、高效的运行.最小二乘支持向量机(LSSVM)被广泛应用电力系统负荷预测上,然而该方法在处理不确定性问题上有很多不足之处.为了更精确的选择核函数的参数,处理不确定性因素,提高短期负荷预测的精度,提出了一种将云模型、粒子群优化(PSO)和LSSVM相结合的组合模型.首先通过对各影响因子的不确定性分析,按不确定性高低将各影响因子分别应用Cloud-LSSVM和PSO-LSSVM进行预测,然后通过组合模型的加权计算的得到最终预测值.最后,通过仿真对比证明该模型能更好的处理不确定性,从而提高电力系统短期负荷预测精度.     

基于MPSO-CWLS-SVM的瓦斯涌出量预测

针对瓦斯涌出量受多因素影响,传统的预测方法难以建立准确的数学模型,导致预测精度低这一问题。提出一种经改进的粒子群算法(MPSO)优化的基于柯西分布加权的最小二乘支持向量机(CWLS-SVM)算法来预测非线性动态瓦斯涌出量。柯西分布加权的最小二乘支持向量机根据预测误差的统计特性,确定加权规则参数,以达到赋予训练样本不同权值的目的。并用MPSO算法对CWLS-SVM模型的正则化参数λ和高斯核参数σ寻优。利用无线传感器网络采集到的各项历史数据进行实例分析。结果表明,该算法有效的提高了瓦斯涌出量的预测精度,降低了预测误差,为煤矿瓦斯防治提供理论支持。     

Only connect: teaching, technology and telesis

Abstract This paper describes an approach to the design of interactive multimedia materials being developed in a European Community project. The developmental process is seen as a dialogue between technologists and teachers. This dialogue is often problematic because of the differences in training, experience and culture between them. Conditions needed for fruitful dialogue are described and the generic model for learning design used in the project is explained.     

European Community policy and the market

Abstract This paper starts with some reflections on the policy considerations and priorities which are shaping European Commission (EC) research programmes. Then it attempts to position the current projects which seek to capitalise on information and communications technologies for learning in relation to these priorities and the apparent realities of the marketplace. It concludes that while there are grounds to be optimistic about the contribution EC programmes can make to the efficiency and standard of education and training, they are still too technology driven.     

一种自适应子融合集成多分类器方法

融合集成方法已经广泛应用在模式识别领域,然而一些基分类器实时性能稳定性较差,导致多分类器融合性能差,针对上述问题本文提出了一种新的基于多分类器的子融合集成分类器系统。该方法考虑在度量层融合层次之上通过对各类基多分类器进行动态选择,票数最多的类别作为融合系统中对特征向量识别的类别,构成一种新的自适应子融合集成分类器方法。实验表明,该方法比传统的分类器以及分类融合方法识别准确率明显更高,具有更好的鲁棒性。     

Avoiding semantic and temporal gaps in developing software intensive systems

Development of software intensive systems (systems) in practice involves a series of self-contained phases for the lifecycle of a system. Semantic and temporal gaps, which occur among phases and among developer disciplines within and across phases, hinder the ongoing development of a system because of the interdependencies among phases and among disciplines. Such gaps are magnified among systems that are developed at different times by different development teams, which may limit reuse of artifacts of systems development and interoperability among the systems. This article discusses such gaps and a systems development process for avoiding them.     

Designing economic np control charts: A programmed simulation approach

This paper presents control charts models and the necessary simulation software for the location of economic values of the control parameters. The simulation program is written in FORTRAN, requires only 10K of main storage, and can run on most mini and micro computers. Two models are presented - one describes the process when it is operating at full capacity and the other when the process is operating under capacity. The models allow the product quality to deteriorate to a further level before an existing out-of-control state is detected, and they can also be used in situations where no prior knowledge exists of the out-of-control causes and the resulting proportion defectives.     

The development of robot art

Going through a few examples of robot artists who are recognized worldwide, we try to analyze the deepest meaning of what is called “robot art” and the related art field definition. We also try to highlight its well-marked borders, such as kinetic sculptures, kinetic art, cyber art, and cyberpunk. A brief excursion into the importance of the context, the message, and its semiotics is also provided, case by case, together with a few hints on the history of this discipline in the light of an artistic perspective. Therefore, the aim of this article is to try to summarize the main characteristics that might classify robot art as a unique and innovative discipline, and to track down some of the principles by which a robotic artifact can or cannot be considered an art piece in terms of social, cultural, and strictly artistic interest. This work was presented in part at the 13th International Symposium on Artificial Life and Robotics, Oita, Japan, January 31–February 2, 2008     

Explanation and prediction: an architecture for default and abductive reasoning

Although there are many arguments that logic is an appropriate tool for artificial intelligence, there has been a perceived problem with the monotonicity of classical logic. This paper elaborates on the idea that reasoning should be viewed as theory formation where logic tells us the consequences of our assumptions. The two activities of predicting what is expected to be true and explaining observations are considered in a simple theory formation framework. Properties of each activity are discussed, along with a number of proposals as to what should be predicted or accepted as reasonable explanations. An architecture is proposed to combine explanation and prediction into one coherent framework. Algorithms used to implement the system as well as examples from a running implementation are given.     

Three Process Perspectives: Organizations, Teams, and People

This paper provides the author's personal views and perspectives on software process improvement. Starting with his first work on technology assessment in IBM over 20 years ago, Watts Humphrey describes the process improvement work he has been directly involved in. This includes the development of the early process assessment methods, the original design of the CMM, and the introduction of the Personal Software Process (PSP)^SM and Team Software Process (TSP){^SM}. In addition to describing the original motivation for this work, the author also reviews many of the problems he and his associates encountered and why they solved them the way they did. He also comments on the outstanding issues and likely directions for future work. Finally, this work has built on the experiences and contributions of many people. Mr. Humphrey only describes work that he was personally involved in and he names many of the key contributors. However, so many people have been involved in this work that a full list of the important participants would be impractical.     

基于复小波噪声方差显著修正的SAR图像去噪

提出了一种基于复小波域统计建模与噪声方差估计显著性修正相结合的合成孔径雷达(Synthetic Aperture Radar,SAR)图像斑点噪声滤波方法。该方法首先通过对数变换将乘性噪声模型转化为加性噪声模型,然后对变换后的图像进行双树复小波变换(Dualtree Complex Wavelet Transform,DCWT),并对复数小波系数的统计分布进行建模。在此先验分布的基础上,通过运用贝叶斯估计方法从含噪系数中恢复原始系数,达到滤除噪声的目的。实验结果表明该方法在去除噪声的同时保留了图像的细节信息,取得了很好的降噪效果。     

基于QTE的蒙古文显示机制研究与实现

蒙古语言是中国蒙古族使用的通用语言,由于蒙古文区别于其他文字的书写方式和其自身变形机制等特点,在很多通用的文字处理引擎中都不被支持。在嵌入式产品开发与应用领域中Linux加QTE已经成为流行方式。该文给出了一种在QTE环境上实现基于标准Unicode的蒙古文点阵显示和变形算法, 并自定义了支持蒙古文的QTE组件,扩展了QTE功能,为在Linux加QTE方式的嵌入式体系结构中处理蒙古文提供了一种解决方法。