Participatory dam systems modelling: a case study of the transboundary Guadiana River in the Iberian Peninsula.

Modelling tools have been widely used to investigate best management practices. But in contrast to the plethora of modelling studies, the practical implementation of outcomes is comparatively small. There is an urgent need to implement results and to show the practical validation of the concept developed, especially against the context of water stress mitigation. The participative development of modelling studies as a joint effort of stakeholders and modellers is seen as a key to achieve a wider identification, acceptance, trust and applicability of results. Participatory planning in the water sector is also increasingly requested in water management, where tasks have been for clarified decades through different institutional arrangements and national laws. Stakeholder involvement in water resources management have been limited to what was long time seen as participation, merely information on action to be taken. In the last decade the need for participation has been reflected in different ways. In Europe, the implementation of the Water Framework Directive (WFD) under Art. 14, requires all the European countries to involve stakeholders in decision making processes on water resource management. The aim of this paper is to present and discuss the research framework and possible results of investigating dam modelling through participatory systems modelling. We introduce a structured approach to use participatory modelling (PM) for stimulating the integration of modelling and decision making, also as a way of implementation of some articles of the WFD. The results and the framing of this paper are part of the AQUASTRESS Project. The conceptual modelling has been developed by a multidisciplinary research team, local stakeholders and local experts. Some results are discussed and recommendations made.     

Using catchment models to establish measure plans according to the Water Framework Directive.

A participatory modelling process (DEMO) has been developed and applied in a 350 km2 catchment in southern Sweden. The overall goal is to improve the dialogues between experts and local stakeholders by using numerical models as a platform for discussions. The study is focused on reducing nutrient load and on the development of a locally established measure plan, which is requested by the European Water Framework Directive. The HBV-NP model was chosen as it can calculate effects and costs for different allocations of several combined measures in a catchment. This paper shows the impact of including local data in the modelling process vs. using more general data. It was found that modelled diffuse nutrient pollution was highly modified when including local know-how, soft information and more detailed field investigations. Leaching from arable land was found to be 35% higher using more detailed information on for instance, agricultural practices, crop and soil distribution. Moreover, the stakeholders' acceptance of model results and reliance on experts was increased by applying the participatory process and involving stakeholders in the modelling procedure.     

Water Resources Allocation in Transboundary River Basins Based on a Game Model Considering Inflow Forecasting Errors

Dynamic transboundary water resources allocation based on inflow prediction results is an important task for water resources management in river basins. This paper takes the watershed management agency as the leader and the associated area as the follower, and proposes a two-level asymmetric Nash-Harsanyi Leader-Follower game model considering inflow forecasting errors. In the proposed model, the Monte Carlo method is used to analyze the uncertainty of various stakeholder allocation results and the response regularity to the total water resource uncertainty. The quantitative relationship between the allocation results of stakeholders and the mean and standard deviation of total water resource uncertainty is subsequently established. The Huaihe River basin in China is selected as a case study. The results show the following: (1) the water allocated to the watershed management agency and three provinces has a normal distribution when the inflow forecasting error obeys the normal distribution; (2) the sum of the mean of the water allocated to stakeholders equals the mean of the forecast water resource and the sum of the standard deviations of the water allocated to stakeholders equals the standard deviation of the forecast water resource; (3) the mean and standard deviation of the allocation results have a good linear relationship with the mean and standard deviation of forecast water resource; (4) the distribution parameters of the stakeholder allocation results can be directly derived from the distribution parameters of the forecast information, thus aiding the stakeholders in making decisions and improving the practical value of the method.

     

Harmonised Principles for Public Participation in Quality Assurance of Integrated Water Resources Modelling

The main purpose of public participation in integrated water resources modelling is to improve decision-making by ensuring that decisions are soundly based on shared knowledge, experience and scientific evidence. The present paper describes stakeholder involvement in the modelling process. The point of departure is the guidelines for quality assurance for ‘scientific‘ water resources modelling developed under the EU research project HarmoniQuA, which has developed a computer based Modelling Support Tool (MoST) to provide a user-friendly guidance and a quality assurance framework that aim for enhancing the credibility of river basin modelling. MoST prescribes interaction, which is a form of participation above consultation but below engagement of stakeholders and the public in the early phases of the modelling cycle and under review tasks throughout the process. MoST is a flexible tool which supports different types of users and facilitates interaction between modeller, manager and stakeholders. The perspective of using MoST for engagement of stakeholders e.g. higher level participation throughout the modelling process as part of integrated water resource management is evaluated.     

Experiences of the use of riverine nutrient models in stakeholder dialogues

The potential of models to assist in stakeholder dialogues is assessed regarding options for the reduction of riverine nitrogen loads in a 357‐km² river basin in south central Sweden. Scenarios of remedies based on stakeholders' suggestions were used to stimulate discussions in a panel incorporating farmers, municipality staff, politicians and technical advisers. The farmers perceived the model‐derived discussion material as valuable, although only average conditions at a generic farm were simulated. The panellists demonstrated caution when using regionalized information, but did not request quantitative uncertainty estimates. There was a desire to have phosphorus included in the model‐derived discussion material and to include the impacts of other environmental goals than ‘no eutrophication’. The inclusion of different stakeholder groups in the panel sessions was acknowledged as a way to establish a shared perception of the existing environmental status of the basin and to define the pros and cons of various remedies. This was seen by the panellists as a way to facilitate local implementation of the Water Framework Directive (WFD). Use of model‐stimulated local stakeholder panels is also a way to ensure that involved stakeholders perceive local environmental goals as realistic and acceptable. However, to establish river‐basin stakeholder dialogues as part of the nation‐wide implementation of the WFD directive, it will be necessary to develop a model approach that can be used by local advisers. Perhaps the most critical factor is the moderators' ability to provide an atmosphere of mutual respect between all those involved in contrast to performing one‐way lectures to the participants.     

Stakeholder preferences for water management alternatives in the Red River Basin

Water management in multijurisdictional river basins requires participation and cooperation across stakeholder groups. This research estimates stakeholder preferences for Red River Basin management alternatives. Issues that basin residents and experts considered relevant were identified and preferences for implementing change were assessed. The choice experiments method was used for estimations. An analysis of different stakeholder groups was employed because of an expectation that informed stakeholders and decision-makers would be more engaged with basin management issues, particularly water quality goals and institutional arrangements. However, this analysis demonstrates that the three different samples did not have significantly different preference orderings.     

Aquifers Management through Evolutionary Bayesian Networks: The Altiplano Case Study (SE Spain)

An approach for the integration of Object-Oriented Bayesian Networks (OOBNs) and Evolutionary Multiobjective Optimization (EMO) is proposed for integrated water resource management and decision support. Bayesian Networks (BNs) offer a novel and powerful tool for modelling complex water systems, facilitating the use of hierarchical modelling by improving the efficiency and communication between the different parts of a model. EMO offers a range of non-dominated optimal management solutions on a Pareto front that facilitate the identification of tradeoffs among conflicting criteria regarding stakeholder’s preferences. The integrated tool provides new possibilities for undertaking an integrated analysis where stakeholder participation can play an important role. It is used for simultaneously analysing the whole water system, characterising uncertainty as probabilities and evaluating different management options. The tool is applied to an overexploited water system located in Southern Spain that is supplied totally by groundwater. In this study, a complex model based on BNs is designed and used as the core of the study. The transition to Evolutionary Bayesian networks (EOBNs) allows stakeholder involvement to be utilized more effectively for designing and evaluating the model’s consistency, and taking into account their conflicting interests.     

Integrated assessment of water resources: Australian experiences

It is widely accepted that water resource management demands an integrated assessment of resource use options, including local and regional impacts on the environment and stakeholders. Multiple issues, stakeholders and scales of system behaviour must be considered, as well as the key disciplines within and between the human and natural sciences. Modelling is a critical tool in integrated assessment. It enables effects of policy interventions, climate forcing and demographics to be predicted (although with some uncertainty), and provides a means of expanding understanding of river basin behaviour. It also acts as a vehicle for social learning among various interest groups. This paper discusses the various frameworks and methods being used for integrated modelling, and their suitability and unfulfilled potential for these purposes. The frameworks include coupled component models, systems dynamics models, metamodels, risk-assessment approaches, Bayesian decision networks, agent-based methods, expert systems and other heuristic knowledge-based techniques. Specific software platforms are not considered but the lessons from software development and implementation are clearly spelt out. The paper presents three Australian case studies in integrated assessment. They vary in their range of catchment/watershed sizes, hydroclimatology, issues of concern and stakeholders engaged. Two of them utilise a coupled component modelling framework and the third a Bayesian decision network approach. The paper illustrates the value, problems and lessons of integrated assessment and modelling. In particular it proposes some ways to address the challenges of assessing options to obtain more sustainable basin-wide outcomes.     

Uncertainty Matters: Computer Models at the Science–Policy Interface

The use of computer models offers a general and flexible framework that can help to deal with some of the complexities and difficulties associated with the development of water management plans as prescribed by the Water Framework Directive. However, despite the advantages modelling presents, the integration of information derived from models into policy is far away from being trivial or the norm. Part of the difficulties of this integration is rooted in the lack of confidence policy makers have on the incorporation of modelling information into policy formulation. In this paper we examine the reasons for this apparent lack of confidence and explore how some tools, presently in use, address this problem. We conclude that public confidence in models is highly dependent on the way uncertainties are addressed and suggest possible directions of action to improve the current situation. Four real case studies illustrate how computer models have been used in The Netherlands for carrying out management plans at regional and national scale. We suggest that the solution to integrate modelling information into policy formulation lies on both the modelling and the policy-making communities.     

Stakeholder‐enhanced environmental flow assessment: The Rufiji Basin case study in Tanzania

Environmental flows are now a standard part of sustainable water management globally but are only rarely implemented. One reason may be insufficient engagement of stakeholders and their priority outcomes in the environmental flow‐setting process. A recent environmental flow assessment (EFA) in the Kilombero basin of the Rufiji River in Tanzania concentrated on a broad‐based investigation of stakeholders' use and perceptions of the ecosystem services provided by the river as a framework for the assessment of flow regimes that would maintain them. The EFA process generally followed the Building Block Methodology but within an enhanced stakeholder engagement framework. Engagement began with the involvement of institutional stakeholders to explain the purpose of the EFA and to elicit their priority outcomes. Extensive interactions with direct‐use stakeholders followed to investigate their uses of and priorities for the rivers. Results were used by the EFA specialist team in choosing flow indicators and defining measurable environmental objectives. The specialists then met to reach a consensus of the flow requirements. The EFA results were lastly reported back to stakeholders. During the Kilombero EFA, we learned that stakeholders at all levels have a good awareness of the natural services provided by a healthy river and can contribute to the setting of environmental objectives for the rivers and floodplain. These can be factored into the biophysical assessments of river flows required to maintain habitats, processes, water quality, and biodiversity. It is therefore important to allocate significant resources to stakeholder engagement. It now remains to be seen if enhanced stakeholder engagement, including the increased understanding and capacity built among all stakeholders, will increase support for the implementation of the recommended flows.     

Activated sludge modelling: development and potential use of a practical applications database

This study aims at synthesizing experiences in the practical application of ASM type models. The information is made easily accessible to model users by creating a database of modelling projects. This database includes answers to a questionnaire that was sent out to model users in 2008 to provide inputs for a Scientific and Technical Report of the IWA Task Group on Good Modelling Practice - Guidelines for use of activated sludge models, and a literature review on published modelling projects. The database is analysed to determine which biokinetic model parameters are usually changed by modellers, in which ranges, and what values are typically used for seven selected activated sludge models. These results should help model users in the calibration step, by providing typical parameter values as a starting point and ranges as a guide. However, the proposed values should be used with great care since they are the result of averaging practical experience and not taking into account specific parameter correlations.     

Qualifying irrigation system sustainability and governance by means of stakeholder perceptions: the Neste Canal (France)

From the analysis of stakeholders’ attitudes, this article explores problems, opportunities and constraints for improving sustainability and establishing better water governance processes in the selected case study, the Neste irrigation canal (France). Data were collected through semi-structured interviews and analyzed by means of a new codification system for identifying the affinities and confrontations between stakeholder demands. Results revealed that there are conceptual and practical heterogeneities among the preferences of stakeholder groups regarding irrigation management, sustainable attitudes and governance promotion. These results can be used by stakeholders and the relevant authorities as a first step in customizing their interventions.     

Enhancing institutional dynamics for multiple uses of water amidst climate‐related risks: The case of Lake Buhi,Philippines

This study examined the current governance system for Lake Buhi, Philippines. It describes stakeholder patterns of decision‐making, their roles in the decision‐making process based on their legal mandates, the manner of interactions, the sources of conflict and how these various issues are currently resolved. Stakeholders represent diverse interests, including irrigation, hydropower generation, fishery management and navigation. This study uses data generated from ten key informant interviews of the different stakeholders, information from five round table discussions, and secondary data and reports of various agencies. The results indicate that Lake Buhi and its watershed present classic man‐in‐nature governance challenges. The interplay of internal and external uncertainties regarding multiple uses results in a complex system that is difficult to effectively manage. Climate‐related hazards aggravate the pressures from activities within the lake watershed, complicating water allocation issues. The institutional arrangements that have emerged to address these challenges, however, appear to be fraught with overlaps, fragmentation and a lack of communication. It is thought these deficiencies could be addressed by establishing a lake basin council with representation from all the involved organizations, as well as any stakeholder groups not represented by organizations. The system of governance over the lake must address issues concerning water uses and access to the resource. The capacity of the organizations to participate in such an arrangement is weak, however, and capacity building is needed. The availability and sharing of data and information among stakeholders are also weak and must be strengthened if the work of the lake basin council is to be based on the best available information.     

A Comparison of Modelling Systems for the Development and Revision of Water Resources Management Plans

In this paper, two modelling systems used for the simulation of water resources management are compared. These modelling systems can be used in the implementation of the European Water Framework Directive or to perform any other kind of integrated assessment with regard to water resources management. In such investigations the use of models is inevitable, as integrated water resources management demands the survey of large areas as well as the inclusion of the different functions of the water cycle and water utilisation processes. Water quantity data provides important input for hydro-chemical, hydro-ecological or hydro-economic models. If no significant water resources management activities are realised in the basin under study, these data can be provided by simple rainfall-runoff models. If significant water resources management activities are realised or planned, the effects of these water resources management activities must be taken into consideration. Then, however, the use of water resources management models becomes necessary. Two such modelling systems, WRAP and WBalMo, are compared. Both have been designed for the development and revision of water resources management plans. Due to different approaches regarding the modelling routines the models lead to different results in the calculation of water quantities. By tracking the simulation algorithms, an understanding of the detected differences becomes possible. By adapting the spatial configuration of the modelled system, equivalent results can be obtained.     

Introduction: Water for Food and Ecosystems: How to Cut which Pie?

Two decades of awareness-raising and dialogues have clearly spelled out the water-related challenges the world is facing. Still, not enough concrete improvements have been realized on key issues, such as the coverage of potable water and sanitation services, and an adequate balance between water for food and ecosystems. Addressing these problems remains a continuous challenge that can only be confronted with an integrated approach, comprising knowledge generation, permanent communication between very different stakeholders, adequate capacity-building and continuous learning, and innovative technology development. With a view to the Fourth World Water Forum in Mexico, this contribution reviews such issues, drawing lessons from experience in a program on Water for Food and Ecosystems (funded by Netherlands Partners for Water initiative) and related on-going work in this area carried out by Wageningen University and Research Centre working closely with partner institutions inside and outside the Netherlands. The debate is structured around three key dimensions (i) balancing human and natural values of water, (ii) multiple stakeholder involvement, (iii) technological innovation. Visualized in the Triangle of Sustainability, the study recognizes the advances made in integrating political processes such as multi-stakeholder negotiation in water resource management as a way of achieving a better balance between the values of water, but warn against neglecting the potential for technical advances that can help increasing the size of the ‘cake’ as a whole.     

A Modelling Solution for Developing and Evaluating Agricultural Land-Use Scenarios in Water Scarcity Contexts

To meet sustainability challenges, regional water management and planning require approaches that assess the land-use visions of various stakeholders using their own evaluation criteria. Models and information systems are keystones in such integrated assessment activities. SPACSS (the SPAtial Cropping System Scenarios builder and evaluator) is a modelling solution that aims to help decision-makers evaluate normative land-use scenarios. A prototype of SPACSS was developed to explore concerns raised by a dam-building project in south-western France, specifically the relation between cropping system distribution and water uptake. This paper presents the initial steps of SPACSS development by scientists and agricultural experts and its evaluation by users through alternative scenarios of maize cropping (altering either its precocity or management to reduce irrigation). SPACSS can represent a wide range of land-use scenarios and aggregate impact indicators at several spatial and temporal scales. Although SPACSS served as a solid support for discussions with stakeholders and decision-makers, it needs modifications to represent more realistic, and thus more complex, land-use scenarios. These modifications will make SPACSS potentially valuable for dealing with a variety of issues concerning agricultural landscapes, far beyond the single question of quantitative water management.     

Exploring and Evaluating Scenarios for a River Catchment in Northern Australia Using Scenario Development,Multi-criteria Analysis and a Deliberative Process as a Tool for Water Planning

Water catchments worldwide are experiencing increasing pressure on the quantity and quality of ground and surface water resources. Water managers are increasingly consulting community and stakeholder groups to ensure their decisions reflect the values and preferences of water users. Growing tensions between different water users require the use of techniques that can enable stakeholders to learn about each others’ positions and deliberate about the costs and benefits of alternative water allocation scenarios. This paper describes the use of scenario development, a small group deliberative process (citizens’ jury) and multi-criteria analysis to assist in water planning for the Howard River catchment in the Northern Territory (NT) of Australia. Water planning processes in the NT are in their infancy. As such, this research provides information about stakeholder preferences where none was previously available and demonstrates the use of a new water planning tool. The research found that the process in this case was most useful in providing information to stakeholders, dispelling some unhelpful myths about water use in the catchment, and coalescing opinion about important criteria for assessing future options.     

Mathematical Modelling for the Integrated Management of Water Resources in Hydrological Basins

Mathematical models are tools that can facilitate the instrumentation of the Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM). The first basin models to be developed were completely hydrological; today, due to the urgent need to plan the sustainable use of water resources, new models are needed that in addition to hydrology also incorporate social, economic, legal, environmental and other aspects. The objective of this work was to identify the characteristics that mathematical basin models must have in order to satisfy the requirements of IWRM. To achieve this, the conclusions of the main international conferences on water and the environment were analyzed; these were conferences in which IWRM was promoted as a strategy to face the challenges of both sectors. IWRM considers social participation as a key element in the decision-making process; consequently, the models must be accepted and applied, and their results interpreted, by those who participate in the process even if they are not modelling experts. This requires a change of perspective in the scientific community for the development of new IWRM models, in government institutions regarding their role as water administrators, and in water stakeholders regarding their role as decision-makers. The results of the analysis indicate that models for IWRM must be accessible to non-expert users, integrate different viewpoints, representing adequately the problem to be solved, in addition be flexible and have a structure focused on practical solutions.     

Unravelling Stakeholder Perceptions to Enable Adaptive Water Governance in Dryland Systems

Adaptive water governance seeks to increase a social-ecological system’s adaptive capacity in the face of uncertainty and change. This is especially important in non-linear dryland systems that are already exposed to water scarcity and increasing degradation. Conservation of water ecosystem services is key for increasing adaptive capacity in drylands, however, how stakeholders perceive water ecosystem services greatly affects how they are managed, as well as the potential for adaptive water governance. This paper focuses on identifying the system’s potential for enabling adaptive water governance by analysing different stakeholder perceptions on water ecosystem services. It takes the Rio del Carmen watershed as a case study, offering important insights for an increasing number of water-scarce regions. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with key stakeholders in the watershed in order to unravel their perceptions and understand the governance context. We found disparities in how stakeholders perceive water ecosystem services have led to water overexploitation and several conflicts over water access. Our results indicate that stakeholder perceptions have a major influence on the system’s adaptability, as they shape the acquisition of water ecosystem services. Divergent stakeholder perceptions act as an important barrier to collaboration. Generating and sharing knowledge could facilitate the development of a common vision, allowing all actors to co-create information about water ecosystem services and the system state, engaging them in a participatory process, suitable for their context, and that will better support adaptive water governance.     

Water Accounting to Assess Use and Productivity of Water

A methodology is demonstrated to account for the use and productivity of water resources. This water accounting methodology presents useful information to water resource stakeholders and decision makers to better understand the present use of water and to formulate actions for improvements in integrated water resources management systems. Based on a water balance approach, it classifies outflows from a water balance domain into various categories to provide information on the quantity of water depleted by various uses, and the amount available for further use. The methodology is applicable to different levels of analysis ranging from a micro level such as a household, to a macro level such as a complete water basin. Indicators are defined to give information on the productivity of the water resource. Examples from Egypt's Nile River and a cascade of tanks in Sri Lanka are presented to demonstrate the methodology.