BTO供应链订单收益管理研究

针对一个两阶BTO供应链的收益管理决策问题,考虑了市场需求对供应链响应时问和价格双重敏感时的供应链决策问题．建立了分散决策和集中决策两种决策模式下的收益模型．对这两种模型以价格和响应时间为决策变量进行了优化求解分析和实例计算．结果表明,集中决策模式下的供应链整体收益大于分散决策模式下的供应链收益,并且收益分配比例在一定的范围内,才可实现各供应链节点企业的Pareto改善．     

基于修正Shapley值的生鲜乳供应链收益分配机制

目前我国"农户+奶站+企业"模式生鲜乳供应链中利益分配不公平问题,导致奶农抗风险能力较弱、养殖积极性不高。为弥补经典Shapley值法的不足,考虑违约风险、经营成本、合作意愿和信息对称程度4个因素,引入综合修正因子,建立了修正的Shapley值的生鲜乳供应链收益分配模型,并利用实地调研所得一手访谈资料予以分析。研究发现:(1)分散决策下,收益分配结构不合理,奶农议价能力低,养殖积极性不高;(2)经典Shapley值法的生鲜乳供应链最优收益分配策略改善了奶农和企业的收益,但奶站没有参与合作的动力;(3)基于修正Shapley值法的生鲜乳供应链收益分配的最优策略下,能实现各主体收益的帕累托改进,"奶农+奶站+企业"合作模式是稳定的。并基于研究结论提出相应政策建议。     

基于时尚周期的服装供应链协调策略

分析服装产品需求随着市场变化而变化的特点,这些特点影响供应链成员的决策方案。在不同的博弈关系、议价能力、信息结构及组织结构下,不同生命周期中销售商的风险偏好有所不同。引入产品时尚指数的概念,建立基于时尚指数的风险规避系数模型。通过对集中模式和分散模式下期望效用函数的分析,得出了最优回购策略。通过实例仿真验证了在不同时尚周期下零售商的风险规避系数随时尚指数的减小而增大。为达到供应链的完美协调,供应商提供回购价也应增大,达到激励零售商的作用。考虑时尚指数将更清楚地反映不同时尚阶段成员对市场的期望,得出最优协调参数,从而优化供应链的利润。     

预售模式下时尚服装双渠道供应链优化模型

为有效降低库存,将预售策略引入到时尚服装双渠道供应链网络。设计预售阶段需求函数,并分析该策略下预售阶段时尚服装需求对正常销售阶段需求的影响;考虑产品生产、运输、存储及广告宣传等成本,建立了包含生产商、分销商和零售商在内的双渠道供应链网络混合整数规划模型,并应用Lingo11.0软件设计算法程序求解。通过算例仿真验证了预售策略对正常销售阶段的需求预测具有良好效果,可有效减少库存成本及缺货损失;根据数值仿真结果进一步对搭便车行为系数进行了灵敏度分析,结果显示,随着搭便车行为系数的增加,供应链整体收益不断降低。     

面向服装大规模定制的供应链管理

实现服装大规模定制,需要跨越供应链上的不同节点企业,研究服装大规模定制的供应链管理。从供应链驱动模式、对信息技术的依赖等不同方面对服装大规模生产和服装大规模定制生产下的供应链进行了比较,并在此基础上提出了2种不同生产模式下的服装供应链模型。分析了面向服装大规模定制的供应链管理的特点;设计并介绍了面向服装大规模定制的供应链管理信息系统结构;研究了针对服装大规模定制的先进的供应链管理方法。     

品牌服装双营销渠道竞争与合作模型构建及应用

针对服装企业线下营销渠道和线上营销渠道共同销售的特点,运用微分方程理论构建双重渠道间竞争与合作模型（以下简称为竞合模型）,推导出带有竞合系数的线上线下销量数学模型。以优衣库和秋水伊人品牌双渠道销量作为实证数据。结果表明：以门店模式为策略的优衣库及以改良模式为策略的秋水伊人渠道双方都处于合作共赢状态,竞合模型能客观衡量品牌服装线上线下渠道竞争与合作关系。最后,结合模型预测作出优衣库和秋水伊人的双渠道销量趋势图,分析服装企业线上线下渠道融合策略,为品牌服装企业探讨双渠道整合管理供参考。     

O2O模式下服装集合店零售决策博弈模型

在O2O模式下,借助集合店渠道采用线上下单线下取货的方式开展服装零售,是近年来的行业热点。本文通过构建一个集合店与两个独立品牌商组成的二级服装供应链博弈模型,探究不同决策模式下佣金率和线下服务水平的差异化影响。模型求解和数值模拟结果表明：独立决策时,品牌商佣金率随竞争品牌定价增加而降低,消费者对于定价差异越敏感,高价服装品牌商佣金率越高;合作决策时,品牌商佣金率随任一方定价及定价差异敏感系数增加而增加;服装品牌价格越高及消费者对价格越敏感,集合店线下服务水平及利润越高;BOPS需求的上升会降低服装品牌商利润的同时增加集合店的利润。     

论增值型服装分销模式再造对服装分销企业的影响

介绍了我国服装分销模式的特点、发展现状,同时提出国内服装行业在当前实行增值型服装分销模式的必要性和可能性,并对增值型服装分销渠道流程再造及其特点、增值型服装分销渠道下的供应链运营结构框架进行了尝试性探讨。     

基于收益共享契约的农产品供应链合作优化模式研究

通过引入"农户(合作社)为提高每单位农产品质量而付出的努力成本"这一变量以及收益共享契约思想,选用国内农产品供应链常见的"农超对接"模式为研究对象,构建了农户(合作社)和超市单独决策时的利润分配模型、供应链合作优化时的利润分配模型以及基于收益共享契约的供应链合作优化模型。通过算例分析,发现建立基于收益共享契约的农产品供应链合作优化模式,有利于激励农户(合作社)为提高农产品质量而付出努力、提高农产品供应链各方的收益水平、降低农产品价格水平,有利于提升农产品质量安全状况。     

面向策略型消费者行为的时尚服装供应链协调策略

将策略型消费者的理性行为引入到时尚服装供应链协调中,分析其对时尚服装供应链运营及定价决策的影响.基于消费者群体对服装产品的评价不一致,对销售商、终端消费者组成的供应链进行了数学建模,分析策略型消费者的理性行为对订货决策和定价决策的影响,并在此基础上进一步做出扩展,讨论销售商采用数量限制承诺的情况,最后进行算例分析加以验证.经分析发现,当消费者具有观望和等待的理性行为后,在满足消费者需求的前提下,供应链的最优库存量有所降低;为应对这种影响,当销售商实施限量发行、珍藏版等策略时,客户对产品的可得数量有比较准确的判断,因此降低了客户等待观望的可能性,更倾向于在旺季时购买.     

竞争环境下的广告策略研究

针对供应链系统中竞争环境下制造商和零售商的合作广告策略问题,利用微分对策理论构建动态模型,运用动态规划原理和最优控制理论分别研究得出了在2个通道都不合作,一个通道合作另一个通道非合作,2个通道都合作3种情况下的广告策略.将结果进行比较,得出在竞争环境下,为获取最大的销售利润,2个通道都应选择合作广告.     

Centralized versus decentralized decision-making for recycled material flows

A reverse logistics system is a network of transportation logistics and processing functions that collect, consolidate, refurbish, and demanufacture end-of-life products. This paper examines centralized and decentralized models of decision-making for material flows and associated transaction prices in reverse logistics networks. We compare the application of a centralized model for planning reverse production systems, where a single planner is acquainted with all of the system information and has the authority to determine decision variables for the entire system, to a decentralized approach. In the decentralized approach, the entities coordinate between tiers of the system using a parametrized flow function and compete within tiers based on reaching a price equilibrium. We numerically demonstrate the increase in the total net profit of the centralized system relative to the decentralized one. This implies that one may overestimate the system material flows and profit if the system planner utilizes a centralized viewto predict behaviors of independent entities in the system and that decentralized contract mechanisms will require careful design to avoid losses in the efficiency and scope of these systems.     

基于Newsboy及多次订购理论的服装网商订货模型建构

 摘 要 在调研分析得出影响服装网络订购关键因子的基础上,结合Newsboy相关理论和订货模型,构建针对网络环境的服装产品最优订货模型,模型设置效用函数的参数,并给出案例进行数值解法演示,以模型构建和应用来优化零售商订货策略,帮助网络零售商进行订货、销售、广告和库存管理决策。     

最优广告策略的随机控制模型研究

建立了一个关于广告策略的随机控制模型．在模型的基础上，研究了最优广告策略的存在性和充要条件．     

Optimizing model: insemination, replacement, seasonal production, and cash flow.

Dynamic programming to solve the Markov decision process problem of optimal insemination and replacement decisions was adapted to address large dairy herd management decision problems in the US. Expected net present values of cow states (151,200) were used to determine the optimal policy. States were specified by class of parity (n = 12), production level (n = 15), month of calving (n = 12), month of lactation (n = 16), and days open (n = 7). Methodology optimized decisions based on net present value of an individual cow and all replacements over a 20-yr decision horizon. Length of decision horizon was chosen to ensure that optimal policies were determined for an infinite planning horizon. Optimization took 286 s of central processing unit time. The final probability transition matrix was determined, in part, by the optimal policy. It was estimated iteratively to determine post-optimization steady state herd structure, milk production, replacement, feed inputs and costs, and resulting cash flow on a calendar month and annual basis if optimal policies were implemented. Implementation of the model included seasonal effects on lactation curve shapes, estrus detection rates, pregnancy rates, milk prices, replacement costs, cull prices, and genetic progress. Other inputs included calf values, values of dietary TDN and CP per kilogram, and discount rate. Stochastic elements included conception (and, thus, subsequent freshening), cow milk production level within herd, and survival. Validation of optimized solutions was by separate simulation model, which implemented policies on a simulated herd and also described herd dynamics during transition to optimized structure.     

Optimal replacement policies for dairy cows based on daily yield measurements

Markov decision processes (MDP) with finite state and action space have often been used to model sequential decision making over time in dairy herds. However, the length of each stage has been at least 1 mo, resulting in models that do not support decisions on a daily basis. The present paper describes the first step of developing an MDP model that can be integrated into a modern herd management system. A hierarchical MDP was formulated for the dairy cow replacement problem with stage lengths of 1 d. It can be used to assist the farmer in replacement decisions on a daily basis and is based on daily milk yield measurements that are available in modern milking systems. Bayesian updating was used to predict the performance of each cow in the herd and economic decisions were based on the prediction. Moreover, parameters in the model were estimated using data records of the specific herd under consideration. This includes herd-specific lactation curves.     

制造商竞争环境下的广告策略

考虑供应链系统中的广告合作问题.利用微分对策的方法研究了在2个制造商竞争环境下2个品牌的3种广告策略,并通过比较2个品牌的广告策略都不合作,只有一个合作以及2个都合作等3种情况下的广告策略,从而得出2个品牌都选择合作广告的原因在于合作广告能够提高利润.     

基于ANP的造纸企业MES软件评价及选择的决策模型

网络分析法(ANP)能对内部存在反馈和关联因子的系统进行很好的评估,而MES系统本身就被设计成一个高度集成的系统.本文探讨了将ANP用于造纸企业MES软件评价与选择的决策模型的可行性.该模型充分考虑了MES系统各功能模块间的相互联系,并通过一个测试对该模型的效用进行了验证.     

Determining the optimum replacement policy for Holstein dairy herds in Iran

The objective of this study was to determine the optimum replacement policy for Holstein dairy herds in Iran using a dynamic programming model. Cows were described in terms of state variables that included milk production class, parity, pregnancy status, and month in milk with a 1-mo stage length. The objective function maximized the net present value of cows over a 15-yr planning horizon. Markov simulation was used to estimate expected herd dynamics under the optimal decision plan determined by dynamic programming. Stochastic elements included probabilities of pregnancy and abortion, production level, and involuntary culling. The optimum annual culling rate was estimated to be 31.4%, and cows had an expected herd life (time from first calving until culling) of 3.18 yr. High replacement cost and low carcass value resulted in only 2.87% voluntary culling (i.e., optimal model-based replacement). Assuming a heat detection rate of 0.4, cows averaged 2.8 services per lactation under the optimal policy. Sensitivity analyses were carried out to evaluate the effect of milk price, herd-average production, feed cost, heifer price, and carcass value on optimum replacement decisions. Herd-average production, replacement cost, and risk of involuntary culling were important factors affecting the optimal culling policy. Changes in the price of feed, calves, and milk and the probability of pregnancy had no considerable effect on the optimal policy considering the market situation in Iran during 2008.