大型公共项目融资风险与控制研究

在大型公共项目的运作过程中,融资已经成为解决资金缺口的主要手段。笔者在界定项目融资结构、项目资金流量及其内涵的基础上,通过建立定量模型,从融资比例、建设工期和项目收益率三个方面对大型公共项目运作中的融资风险进行了分析,并通过算例对该模型进行了验证。     

实物期权在基础设施BOT项目投资决策中的应用

从基础设施BOT项目的不确定因素出发,针对传统投资评价方法对基础设施BOT项目投资决策的局限性,在分析基础设施BOT项目具有实物期权特性的基础上,建立了基于推迟期权的投资决策模型,求解了投资机会价值和最优投资决策的临界值,最后通过举例验证了该投资决策模型应用于基础设施BOT项目的可行性.     

Fuzzy multi-objective optimization of finance-based scheduling for construction projects with uncertainties in cost

This article employs a new approach to investigate multi-objective finance-based scheduling for construction projects under uncertainty. It takes into consideration the line of credit to provide cash for implementation of a construction project. Using a finance-based scheduling concept and NSGA-II, the article presents a multi-objective model to search the non-dominated solutions considering total duration, required credit, and financing cost as three objectives. Fuzzy-sets theory is used to account for uncertainties in direct cost of each activity for determining the required credit and financing cost. The model fully embeds fuzzy presentation of the uncertainties in direct cost into the model structure. The α -cut approach is used to account for the accepted risk level of the project manager, for which a separate Pareto front with set of non-dominated solutions has been developed. Fuzzy numbers ranking is performed by the Hamming distance method. An example project is presented to validate the model and emphasize its merits.     

基于可能性理论和ANP方法的BOT项目投资机会评价研究

传统的以风险分析技术为基础的投资机会评价方法需要输入参数的相对频率,而在BOT建设项目中参数的相对频率是不容易获取的.基于此,提出了一种能为投资项目的财务与非财务因素的综合影响建模的方法,它使用可能性理论去解决财务与非财务因素所固有的不确定性问题.采用了ANP方法来确定非财务因素的相对权重,较好地解决了BOT项目不确定性问题,模型运算较简单,便于操作.     

The Determinants of Debt and (Private) Equity Financing: The Case of Young, Innovative SMEs from Germany

Financial theory creates a puzzle. Some authors argue that high-risk entrepreneurs choose debt contracts instead of equity contracts since risky but high returns are of relatively more value for a loan-financed firm. Conversely, authors who focus explicitly on start-up finance predict that entrepreneurs are the more likely to seek equity-like venture capital contracts, the more risky their projects are. Our paper is an initial step towards resolving this puzzle empirically. We present microeconometric evidence on the determinants of debt and equity financing in young and innovative SMEs. We pay special attention to the role of risk for the choice of the method of financing. Since risk is not directly observable we use different indicators for financial and project risk. It turns out that our data generally confirms the hypothesis that the probability that a young high-tech firm receives equity financing is an increasing function of the financial risk. With regard to the intrinsic project risk, our results are less conclusive, as some of our indicators of a risky project are found to have a negative effect on the likelihood to be financed by private equity.     

Experience,Equity and Foreign Investment Risk: A PIC Perspective

We analyze foreign investment risk-mitigating effects of host-country policy stability, firm experience and equity stakes using an empirical context largely ignored by international business (IB) research: project investment companies (PICs). PICs permit cleaner separation of individual investment project risk from the parent firm, which may otherwise pool risk characteristics from managing multiple projects across different industries and countries. PICs also permit potentially unbiased, prospective risk assessment at the time of a project’s initial announcement based on the mix of debt and equity funding the project. Consistent with previous IB research, our analyses of 396 PICs announced in 53 countries from 1990–2006 indicate that investment risk measured as the percentage of equity-to-total capital funding a PIC decreases with greater host-country policy stability, lead-investor experience in the host country, and lead-investor equity stakes. But contrary to previous IB research, we find that lead-sponsor experience and equity stakes reduce investment risk less as host-country policy stability decreases. From a PIC perspective, investor experience and equity stakes are complements to (not substitutes for) host-country policy stability. Our PIC-based evidence re-invigorates research and related practice and policy debates about how investor experience and equity holdings affect foreign project decisions and suggests new avenues for future work.     

资金约束时零售商融资与订货决策及价值分析

针对供应链中存在资金约束的情形,建立了包含制造商（M）、零售商（R）双层结构、不考虑残次品率、库存成本和融资周期长短的简洁供应链决策模型。研究了当市场需求不确定和零售商资金不足情形下,零售商选择是否融资这两种情况下,其订货决策的变化,以及零售商和制造商的收益变化。通过有无融资条件下零售商不同数量自有资金时订货量和期望收益对比和零售商自有资本一定时订货量随周期变化的数值分析,证明了零售商的融资决策与订货量决策会随着其自有资金及市场需求的变化而变化;验证了融资可以提高零售商和供应链的收益,而且能够使得供应链的总产品尽快达到最佳产量,有效满足消费者需求。     

Financing Model Decision of Inter-basin Water Transfer Projects

Inter-basin Water Transfer Projects require the appropriate financing model to attract large amounts of social investment. Therefore, financing model decision becomes the key of engineering construction. In three aspects, such as the subject, the object and the target of the financing model, Grey Target Model is established in this paper. First, the complex financing mode decision problems of Inter-basin Water Transfer Projects are decomposed by using hierarchical decomposition method. Then Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) method is used to calculate the comprehensive weight of evaluation index. Experts’ opinions financing model are transformed into the evaluation matrix based on the Dephi method. The Weighted Grey Target Model is used to calculate the approaching degree of financing model and assists financing mode decision. In addition, this paper takes the water diversion project from the Han to the Wei River of Shaanxi Province as a verification example for the model. For other water diversion projects, the evaluation results are also reliable and provide theoretical references for the financing model decision of Inter-basin Water Transfer Projects.     

Factors That Affect the Growth Rate of Equity Capital

Six factors that affect either the transient or the long-term growth rate of equity capital are identified. The use of the net present value method of financial accounting to compute the equity value of hypothetical firms is described. Simulation of sequences of capital budgeting decisions in hypothetical firms was used to illustrate the effects of the six factors on the growth rate of equity capital. The upper limit of a firm's steady-state capital growth rate was affected by (1) the maximum yield attainable from its long-term investments, (2) its debt policy, (3) its budget allocation policy, and (4) the (average) life of its long-term investments. Unless the selection procedure was random, the transient values of a firm's annual growth rate of equity were affected appreciably by (1) the growth rate of its long-term investment opportunities, (2) its debt policies, and (3) its past decisions. Random variation in the growth rate of investment opportunities had little affect on the average growth rate of the firm, but it had appreciable affect on the year to year values. The factors that had the greatest influence on the long-term growth of equity capital were generation of high yielding investment opportunities and estimating expected values of cash flows accurately.     

Financing Strategy of Low-Carbon Supply Chain with Capital Constraint under Cap-and-Trade Regulation

Cap-and-trade regulation provides incentives for manufacturers to reduce carbon emissions, but manufacturers’ insufficient capital can disrupt the implementation of low-carbon emission reduction technologies. To alleviate capital constraints, manufacturers can adopt external financing for low-carbon emission reduction investments. This paper studies the independent financing and financing cooperation behavior in a supply chain in which the manufacturer and retailer first implement low-carbon emission reduction technologies and then organize production and sales in accordance with wholesale price contracts. Through comparing the optimal profits and low-carbon emission reduction levels under the independent financing and financing cooperation mode, we come to the following conclusions: (1) Although financing interest increases the cost of the supply chain, manufacturers prefer to invest in reducing carbon emissions rather than buying carbon quotas. (2) When financing independently, a decentralized decision-making mode (MD) is the best choice for manufacturers. (3) In cooperative financing, when the supply chain adopts a decentralized decision-making mode (SD) in which the retailer determines the financing cost-sharing ratio according to their optimal profit, the profits of the supply chain and its members are significantly improved. (4) When manufacturers and retailers adopt a centralized decision-making model (SC) in cooperative financing, they jointly determine the financing cost-sharing ratio and the level of low-carbon emission reduction. If the financing cost-sharing ratio meets a certain threshold range, the profits of manufacturers and retailers achieve Pareto improvement, indicating that this cooperative financing model is effective.     

过度自信对投资项目后续增资决策的影响

目的采用情境模拟实验研究过度自信对不同投资绩效下投资项目增资决策的影响。方法采用2×3被试间和被试内混合实验设计,其中被试自信程度为被试间变量,项目运行一阶段后的绩效状态为被试内变量。结果过度自信的被试对投资项目运行后的评价要显著高于相对理性的被试,但两类被试在项目后续决策上基本上不存在显著差异,仅仅是当投资绩效为模糊状态时,高估投资收益型过度自信的被试更少放弃投资。高估投资收益和对投资收益的定位过高型过度自信的被试比理性被试增资的持续阶段更长,但仅在投资绩效为积极状态时,在持续增资的第二阶段,对投资收益的定位过高型过度自信的被试增资程度更高。结论过度自信具有情境性,采用与投资决策任务有关的方式测量被试信心时,过度自信对投资项目后续增资决策存在显著影响。     

National Culture and International Differences in the Cost of Equity Capital

• Prior literature suggests that national culture influences many facets of business operations including corporate governance, capital structure, managerial compensation, foreign direct investment behavior and accounting systems.
• Extending this line of literature, we examine whether key aspects of national culture are also related to international differences in the cost of equity capital.
• In a cross-country sample of 32 countries during 1992–2006, we find that the cost of equity capital tends to be higher in more individualistic and less uncertainty avoiding societies consistent with their greater risk-taking orientation.
• This finding contributes to the international business and financial literature by identifying national culture as an important institutional variable influencing firms’ cost of equity capital around the world.

     

Equity Breakeven Point: A Graphical and Tabulation Tool for Engineering Managers

Abstract

This article presents a graphical and tabulation framework for the application of equity breakeven point (EBP) for financial management of engineering projects. EBP was previously developed as a computational tool for the analysis of mortgage payments. This article presents a user-friendly framework for visualizing and assessing the utility of EPB in engineering projects. The proposed graphical and tabulation framework extends the application of EPB to general capital investments, which are part of engineering projects. Engineering managers and other practitioners can utilize the tabulation of EBP to assess what-if options in major financial transactions. The mathematical derivation of the EPB indicates the time when the unpaid balance on a capital investment is equal to the cumulative equity in the investment, thereby providing a-priori insight into how long it might take to retire an investment loan on the strength of the accrued equity. This type of graphical visualization is useful for negotiating the terms of acquiring and/or managing large engineering projects.     

Practice and experience of engineering culture development in the Sutong Bridge project

To keep up with the time, culture is integrated to large-scale construction project management in China, which will absolutely add more vitality into construction project management in our country. Engineering culture is an integration of project construction and engineering culture. However, engineering culture development enjoys its own particularity as a project is constructed once only within a limited period of time. This paper gives affirmative opinion that engineering culture development in large-scale projects backs project management on the basis of thorough investigation of engineering culture development in Sutong Bridge Project and after deepened analysis, proposes new thinking pattern of engineering culture development in large-scale projects in a systematic manner, including thorough understanding of the essence of engineering culture, principle and contents of engineering culture development as well as efficient method in respect of establishment and implementation of engineering culture, and therefore provides a standard reference and systematic thinking pattern for engineering culture development in future large-scale projects.     

在电镀工业园区建设中采用建设-经营-转让运作方式的探讨

为了保护环境、节约三废处理成本、实现经济的可持续性发展,许多表面处理优势突出的城市相继建立了电镀工业园,对在电镀工业园区建设中采用建设-经营-转让(BOT)运作方式的前期工作、投资模式、建设模式和运行管理模式进行了探讨.     

Industrial Sponsored Design Projects Addressed by Student Design Teams*

We have developed and implemented a four‐quarter design sequence starting in the spring of the junior year. The first course focuses on having teams of students take an industrial based project from inception through a conceptual design process culminating in a final design specification. The senior year sequence is structured to have three‐five member teams function as a type of “engineering consultant firm” to address externally sponsored projects. The teams initially work with the sponsor to develop a “Product Design Specification (PDS)” as the foundation of the project. The teams then develop the conceptual design of the project during the fall quarter in order to get sponsor approval to move toward final implementation or prototype development during the winter and early spring teams. The course culminates with a day long symposium where each team makes formal presentations of their project and designs to the campus community, the sponsor representatives, and invited guests from the local community and potential industrial sponsors. The paper will present the specifics of the Junior and Senior level courses, brief overviews of the related Sophomore and Junior prerequisite courses, the method of obtaining the industrial sponsors, team formation process, sample projects, and assessment results from the first two offerings of the sequence.     

大型公益项目全寿命周期过程集成模型及其支撑条件研究

大型公益项目管理全寿命周期过程集成是指从项目决策、规划设计、实施、运行维护、结束等阶段的项目过程集成。本文以实现项目全寿命周期目标体系为目的,以系统观点、过程观点及价值工程思想为指导,研究了从项目策划、规划设计、实施到运营的全过程集成管理,及其不同阶段不同任务之间的相互关系和作用,建立了大型公益项目全寿命周期过程集成模型,并讨论了大型公益项目全寿命周期过程集成的支撑条件,实现项目全寿命周期的平衡与和谐,提高了项目投资效益和社会公益服务功能,从而提高了大型公益项目的价值。     

双种群可再生资源与生产资本的最优管理

本文在投资可逆的假设下建立了双种群可再生资源与生产资本的双重最优管理模型,证明了互惠(独立)双种群沿着最优轨线具有正的影子价格而股本资本具有非负的影子价格,分析了四种可能的状态轨线类型及其关系,最后给出长期最优均衡的求解方法。     

资金约束下考虑碳配额质押融资的制造/再制造生产决策研究

本文研究资金约束下制造/再制造企业考虑碳配额质押融资的生产减排决策问题，构建了资金约束时不融资和进行碳配额质押融资两种利润模型，通过算例分析自有资金及减排效用参数对产量、碳排放量和总利润的影响。研究结果表明，进行碳配额质押融资能提高产量增加利润，但也可能导致碳排放总量的增加；企业减排能力与减排效用积累量正相关，资金不足时不融资减排效用积累值较小，选择融资可以为企业未来生产减排实现共赢奠定基础。     

SAPHIR: a physiome core model of body fluid homeostasis and blood pressure regulation

We present the current state of the development of the SAPHIR project (a Systems Approach for PHysiological Integration of Renal, cardiac and respiratory function). The aim is to provide an open-source multi-resolution modelling environment that will permit, at a practical level, a plug-and-play construction of integrated systems models using lumped-parameter components at the organ/tissue level while also allowing focus on cellular- or molecular-level detailed sub-models embedded in the larger core model. Thus, an in silico exploration of gene-to-organ-to-organism scenarios will be possible, while keeping computation time manageable. As a first prototype implementation in this environment, we describe a core model of human physiology targeting the short- and long-term regulation of blood pressure, body fluids and homeostasis of the major solutes. In tandem with the development of the core models, the project involves database implementation and ontology development.