经济发展预报系统研究与实现

本文研究并建立了经济发展预报模型,实现了集市场经济下生产方案的设计与优化、理想经济下均衡标准预测、资金盈余预测等于一体的预报软件系统,并利用新疆的经济发展现状对模型进行验证,确保了预报模型和系统的准确性。     

软件可靠性稳定增长与安全性测试的故障树分析法

随着信息技术的发展,计算机应用日益广泛,软件可靠性和软件安全性越来越受到重视。本文提出软件可靠性稳定增长测试与软件安全性测定的概念,并利用故障树分析技术,详细讨论了它们在操作获取高的软件可靠性与安全性工作中的作用,描述了故障树分析方法的分析过程,最后本文分析了它的优缺点,并对该方法的可能的改进及补充进行了一些探讨。     

长白落叶松单木生长可视化系统设计与实现

虚拟树木近年来已成为植物学、农林业、环境科学和计算机领域的一个研究热点。论文以长白落叶松(Larixolgensis)为例,基于实测的部分形态结构参数和收集建立的生长模型,以OpenGL三维图形和建模库为三维可视化平台,采用MicrosoftVisualBasic6.0为计算机编程语言,完成了长白落叶松单木生长三维可视化系统(SimTree1.0)开发,实现了长白落叶松单木静态和动态三维图形模拟。     

对象类型的等价代换与规范化

本文讨论了面向对象数据库模式中对象类型的规范化，基于对象集合的等价提出了类型的一种范式、给出了将类型转换为范式的规则、并且证明了范式的唯一性及转换规则的完备性，本文工作在面向对象数据库设计标准化方面迈出了一步。     

经验逻辑：一种非单调逻辑的统一形式

人的常识推理是一种充满经验性知识的累积过程,而经验推理具有非单调性。本文提出一种关于典型与例外的经验逻辑,特别研究它的非单调性,它提供了一个现存的主要非单调逻辑的统一基础,这是通过一种类似的规则把它们翻译成经验逻辑获得的。因此,经验逻辑给出了一类更一般而且直观的非单调推理形式。     

交互式自然口语语音识别关键技术

探讨了交互式自然口语音识别中关键词语音识别和交互式自然语言理解等核心技术。建立了关键词模型、非关键词模型和多重关键词语法原则。训练的方法是二元文法统计模型。     

A controlled linearized kalman filter for economic forecasting and adaptive modelling

An adaptive controlled forecasting procedure is described, which is specifically tailored to some major restrictions on economic data series and the resulting modelling tasks: (a) the periodically changing content of the economic statistics delivered and changing model structures, are represented by periodically changing transition and measurement equations; (b) jumps in the instrumental variables, decisions and exogenous quantities, are being compensated for by a model-based sensitivity correction; (c) quick model adaptation achieved via recursive estimation (dual Kalman filtering) of an autoregressive relation between all past recent measurements. This forecasting model presents therefore the original feature of being a mixed model-based-and-autoregressive (naive) prediction scheme. Considering a truly non-linear macroeconomic model, and a 20% jump on all instrumental variables, good forecasting performances are demonstrated numerically.     

任务分担模型和DPS控制的动态层次组织

鉴于DPS任务具有易于递归分解的特性,按任务的层次结构来组织问题求解的控制,自然而有效,既分布了控制,又具有集中控制的优点,本文提出控制的动态层次组织这一概念,旨在按问题求解特例动态地组织层次控制,以适应于任务无固定层次结构的情况,考虑到任务的逐层分担是组织层次控制的依据,各求解器以其可承担的任务为中心建立任务分担模型将是十分有帮助的,由于提供了求解器间的潜在控制关系框架和冲突监控网等全局策略性规划知识,模型可用以指导任务分担的合理展开,避免和解决可能的冲突,从而促进层次控制的优化组织。     

基于异质模型柔性集成的系统模拟

复杂系统模拟时往往要用到性质差别很大的各种模型。为了最大程度地发挥系统模拟的效果，将异质模型进行柔性集成是作者提出的一种新策略。为了要达到模型柔性集成的目标，本文重点研究了一类具有规范化约定而又能适应异质数学模型集成需要的模型库，并建立模型的规范化描述体系。本文还提出了系统模拟实验框架。通过对一简化的炼油过程模拟实例的研究和运行分析，初步表明本文所提出的策略和理论框架是有效可行的。     

Keynesian Dynamics and the Wage–Price Spiral: Identifying Downward Rigidities

We develop a constrained bivariate switching model to explore empirically the behavior of wage and price Phillips-curves for high- and low-inflation regimes. Using this switching regression technique with a structural simultaneous equations model of Phillips curves, we identify significant lower floors for wage and price inflation. We interpret these lower floors as the relevant downward rigidity for wages and prices. Such floors imply that the adverse real-wage adjustment mechanism that can be identified in the high-inflation regime may disappear in the low-inflation regime, where money-wage inflation and price inflation, and thus real-wage movements, may become rigid. Consequently, the economy may be stabilized then, but trapped in a long period of stagnation in such a low-inflation situation. Such properties of kinked wage and price Phillips-curves are thus important and could also be of help to break another important destabilizing feedback channel, the Fisher debt deflation mechanism, according to which economies, in which highly indebted firms are unable to prevent price deflation, will experience severe crisis or even economic breakdown if the resulting deflationary spiral cannot be stopped.JEL classifications: C39; E24; E31; E32; J30     

Probabilistic Model for Description of Evolution of Financial Indices

A model describing the dynamics of stock prices is considered. The model is based on the Katz process ("telegraph process"). Estimates of unknown model parameters are found.     

TOWARDS A GLOBAL ANALYSIS OF SYSTEMS

In this paper a topological approach to the analysis or properties or systems is outlined and accounted for, which is called a Global Analysis of Systems (GAS). Let a topological space t of system; and a property P of systems from Σ be given. Define Σ _p = {σ∈Σ; σ has the properly P}. Then the main question of the Global Analysis of Systems is: how can Σ _p , be characterized in topological terms? We claim that three types of properties are worthy of being distinguished from this topological point of view. They are called structural, generic and residual properties, if I, appears to be an open, open and dense, and residual subset of I respectively. A motivation for the Global Analysis of Systems flowing from differential geometry, theory of dynamical systems, catastrophe theory and the theory of control systems is presented. In conclusion a significance of the Global Analysis of Systems, both far systems theory and for a better understanding of the fundamental relation Model—Reality, is discussed.     

ORACLE／CASE剖析

ＣＡＳＥ是将计算机辅助技术应用于软件工程而产生的一种高科技领域,是当前软件设计开发集成环境与工具的重要研究方向,对于提高软件产品的生产率和质量具有重要的现实意义。本文对ＯＲＡＣＬＥ／ＣＡＳＥ系统进行了剖析,讨论了ＣＡＳＥ基本成分,ＯＲＡＣＬＥ／ＣＡＳＥ工具组及体系结构,探讨其内部结构,各成分作用及设计的基本过程。     

Does information and communications technology affect economic growth? Empirical evidence from SAARC countries

ABSTRACT

This study investigates the impact of Information and Communications Technology (ICT) on economic growth (gross domestic product) for member countries of South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) using annual data for the period 1990–2014. The study has employed augmented Cobb–Douglas production function by incorporating ICT along with capital and labor. We have taken teledensity (number of fixed and mobile phones per 10,000 people) as the proxy of ICT. This study has included only four SAARC countries (Bangladesh, India, Sri Lanka, and Pakistan) due to data constraints. Our findings reveal a positive and statistically significant effect of ICT on economic growth using panel data techniques. However, the impact of ICT on economic growth is highest for India followed by Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and Pakistan respectively. This study has crucial policy implications for SAARC countries as they have started giving due significance to the issues related to ICT these years.     

A Theoretical and Experimental Study on the Construction of Suffix Arrays in External Memory

Abstract. The construction of full-text indexes on very large text collections is nowadays a hot problem. The suffix array [32] is one of the most attractive full-text indexing data structures due to its simplicity, space efficiency and powerful/ fast search operations supported. In this paper we analyze, both theoretically and experimentally, the I/ O complexity and the working space of six algorithms for constructing large suffix arrays. Three of them are state-of-the-art, the other three algorithms are our new proposals. We perform a set of experiments based on three different data sets (English texts, amino-acid sequences and random texts) and give a precise hierarchy of these algorithms according to their working-space versus construction-time tradeoff. Given the current trends in model design [12], [32] and disk technology [29], [30], we pose particular attention to differentiate between ``random' and ``contiguous' disk accesses, in order to explain reasonably some practical I/ O phenomena which are related to the experimental behavior of these algorithms and that would otherwise be meaningless in the light of other simpler external-memory models. We also address two other issues. The former is concerned with the problem of building word indexes; we show that our results can be successfully applied to this case too, without any loss in efficiency and without compromising the simplicity of programming to achieve a uniform, simple and efficient approach to both the two indexing models. The latter issue is related to the intriguing and apparently counterintuitive ``contradiction' between the effective practical performance of the well-known Baeza-Yates—Gonnet—Snider algorithm [17], verified in our experiments, and its unappealing worst-case behavior. We devise a new external-memory algorithm that follows the basic philosophy underlying that algorithm but in a significantly different manner, thus resulting in a novel approach which combines good worst-case bounds with efficient practical performance.     

关于模糊联想类比推理的数学模型及逻辑初探

本文借用模糊数学，对模糊联想类比推理的基础理论进行了研究，并给出模糊联想类比推理的一种模型及其一种逻辑。     

ON THE POWER OF SOME PRAM MODELS

Abstract

The focus here is the power of some underexplored CRCW PRAMs, which are strictly more powerful than exclusive write PRAM but strictly less powerful than BSR. We show that some problems can be solved more efficiently in time and/or processor bounds on these models. For example, we show that n linearly-ranged integers can be sorted in O(logn/loglogn) time with optimal linear work on Sum CRCW PRAM. We also show that the maximum gap problem can be solved within the same resource bounds on Maximum CRCW PRAM. Though some models can be shown to be more powerful than others, some of them appear to have incomparable powers.