China’s pre-2020 CO2 emission reduction potential and its influence

China achieved the reduction of CO₂ intensity of GDP by 45% compared with 2005 at the end of 2017, realizing the commitment at 2009 Copenhagen Conference on emissions reduction 3 years ahead of time. In future implementation of the “13th Five-Year Plan (FYP),” with the decline of economic growth rate, decrease of energy consumption elasticity and optimization of energy structure, the CO₂ intensity of GDP will still have the potential for decreasing before 2020. By applying KAYA Formula decomposition, this paper makes the historical statistics of the GDP energy intensity decrease and CO₂ intensity of energy consumption since 2005, and simulates the decrease of CO₂ intensity of GDP in 2020 and its influences on achieving National Determined Contribution (NDC) target in 2030 with scenario analysis. The results show that China’s CO₂ intensity of GDP in 2020 is expected to fall by 52.9%–54.4% than the 2005 level, and will be 22.9%–25.4% lower than 2015. Therefore, it is likely to overfulfill the decrease of CO₂ intensity of GDP by 18% proposed in the 13th FYP period. Furthermore, the emission reduction potentiality before 2020 will be conducive to the earlier realization of NDC objectives in 2030. China’s CO₂ intensity of GDP in 2030 will fall by over 70% than that in 2005, and CO₂ emissions peak will appear before 2030 as early as possible. To accelerate the transition to a low-carbon economy, China needs to make better use of the carbon market, and guide the whole society with carbon price to reduce emissions effectively. At the same time, China should also study the synergy of policy package so as to achieve the target of emission reduction.     

The challenge of reducing energy consumption of the Top-1000 largest industrial enterprises in China

In 2005, the Chinese government announced an ambitious goal of reducing energy consumption per unit of gross domestic product (GDP) by 20% between 2005 and 2010. One of the key initiatives for realizing this goal is the Top-1000 Energy-Consuming Enterprises program. The energy consumption of these 1000 enterprises accounted for 33% of national and 47% of industrial energy usage in 2004. Under the Top-1000 program, 2010 energy consumption targets were determined for each enterprise. The objective of this article is to evaluate the program design and initial results, given limited information and data, to understand the possible implications of its success in terms of energy and carbon dioxide emission reductions and to recommend future program modifications based on international experience with similar target-setting agreement programs. Even though the Top-1000 program was designed and implemented rapidly, it appears that – depending upon the GDP growth rate – it could contribute to somewhere between approximately 10% and 25% of the savings required to support China's efforts to meet a 20% reduction in energy use per unit of GDP by 2010.     

Assessment of China's energy-saving and emission-reduction accomplishments and opportunities during the 11th Five Year Plan

From 1980 to 2002, China experienced a 5% average annual reduction in energy consumption per unit of gross domestic product (GDP). With a dramatic reversal of this historic relationship, energy intensity increased 5% per year during 2002–2005. China's 11th Five Year Plan (FYP) set a target of reducing energy intensity by 20% by 2010. This paper assesses selected policies and programs that China has instituted to fulfill the national goal, finding that China made substantial progress and many of the energy-efficiency programs appear to be on track to meet – or in some cases exceed – their energy-saving targets. Most of the Ten Key Projects, the Top-1000 Program, and the Small Plant Closure Program will meet or surpass the 11th FYP savings goals. China's appliance standards and labeling program has become very robust. China has greatly enhanced its enforcement of new building energy standards but energy-efficiency programs for buildings retrofits, as well as the goal of adjusting China's economic structure, are failing. It is important to maintain and strengthen the existing energy-saving policies and programs that are successful while revising programs or adding new policy mechanisms to improve the programs that are not on track to achieve the stated goals.     

Methodological proposal for territorial distribution of the percentage reduction in gross inland energy consumption according to the EU energy policy strategic goal

A 20% reduction in the consumption of energy is one of the main goals of the European Union’s (EU) 20/20/20 Energy Strategy. But the uniform application of this overall goal to all of the countries is neither fair nor equitable, as it does not take into consideration the characteristics of the energy system in each Member State. This article therefore proposes a nonlinear distribution methodology with objective, dynamic goals for reducing gross inland energy consumption, according to the context and characteristics of each member state. We hope it will open discussion on how these overall goals can be weighted. Then we analyse the situation of the energy indicators related to energy efficiency in the reference year (2005) used by the EU for reaching its goal of reducing the gross inland consumption by 20% by 2020, and its progress from 1996 to 2007. Finally, the methodology proposed is applied to the year 2020 on the NUTS0 territorial level, that is, to members of the EU, according to the EUROSTAT Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics (NUTS). Weighting is done based on energy intensity, per capita gross inland consumption and per capita energy intensity in two scenarios, the EU-15 and EU-27.     

Resource of energy efficiency in Russia: scale, costs, and benefits

This paper considers Russian economy-wide energy efficiency potential by sectors and energy carriers. The assessment shows that Russian technical energy efficiency potential exceeds 45% of 2005 primary energy consumption or 294 mtoe (excluding associated gas flaring). This is about the annual primary energy consumption in France, the UK, or Ukraine, half of that in Japan, and over 2% of the global primary energy consumption. Related CO₂ emission reduction potential is 50% of the Russian 2005 emission. Special attention is given to methodological issues in aggregating potentials identified in final energy use and to the evaluation of indirect energy efficiency gains. This study found that the energy efficiency potential doubles, if associated reduction of energy use, as well as technology progress, in energy production and transformation are accounted for. Cost curves for energy efficiency improvements were developed using the incremental cost approach to identify the cost-effective part of the potential.     

What induced China's energy intensity to fluctuate: 1997–2006?

China is the second largest energy consumer in the world. During 1997–2002, China's energy intensity declined by 33%. However, it rose by 10.7% over 2003–2005, and declined by 1.2% in 2006. What induced China's energy intensity to fluctuate so drastically? Industry accounts for approximately 70% of the total energy consumption in China. In this paper, we decompose China's industrial energy intensity changes between 1997 and 2002 into sectoral structural effects and efficiency effects (measured by sectoral energy intensities at two-digit level and including the shifts of product mix in the sub-sector or firm level), using Törnqvist and Sato–Vartia Index methods. The results show that in this period, efficiency effects possibly contributed to a majority of the decline, while the contribution from structural effects was less. During 2003–2005, the excessive expansion of high-energy consuming sub-sectors and the high investment ratio were foremost sources of the increasing energy intensity. Attributed to the government efforts, the energy intensity has started to decline slightly since July 2006. In future, to save more energy, in addition to technical progress, China should attach more importance to optimizing its sectoral structure, and lowering its investment ratio.     

我国节能减排形势和面临的严峻挑战

我国近几年节能减排取得巨大成就,与2005年比较,2009年全国单位GDP能耗降低15.56%;"十一五"前4年节能率为4.14%,节能量达到56511×104t标煤;环境污染物增长率和单位GDP污染物产生量明显下降。但节能减排形势依然严峻,目前完成"十一五"能源强度降低20%左右的目标任务十分艰巨。同时,能源资源相对短缺、节能压力巨大、能源开发利用效率不高、环境污染严重、节能管理体制改革明显滞后等问题依然存在。其原因主要是经济增长过快、产业结构调整十分艰难、节能降耗步履维艰、能源结构调整进展较慢、能源消费量增长迅速等。为了保持资源和环境的可持续发展,必须控制能源需求总量的增长,优化能源结构,2020年能源消费总量不应超过42×108t标煤,特别要抑制煤炭生产量和消费量的快速增长。同时今后10年经济增长速度最好保持在7%～8%之间。改变经济增长模式的重点在于转变发展方式,要由生产型大国向消费型大国转型、由投资主导型转向消费主导型,到2020年第三产业的比重应达到50%左右。要加大节能力度,提高能源利用效率,"十二五"和"十三五"期间,单位GDP能耗应分别下降20%。另外,应积极发展各种非化石能源,深化能源体制改革,进一步加强国际合作。     

Impact of inter-fuel substitution on energy intensity in Ghana

Energy intensity and elasticity, together with inter-fuel substitution are key issues in the current development stage of Ghana. Translog production and ridge regression are applied for studying these issues with a data range of 2000–2015. The current energy dynamics reveal the expected inverse relationship: higher energy intensity and lower elasticity with economic growth. There are evidences of energy-economic challenges: high energy cost, inefficiency and backfire rebound effect. The implications are higher energy losses in the system, more consumption of lower-quality energy together with low energy technology innovation. Energy is wasted and directly not productive with economic activities. It is observed further that the higher energy intensity invariably increases CO₂ emission because approximately 95% of total energy is derived from hydrocarbons and biomass. An inter-fuel substitution future scenario design was further conducted and the results were positive with growth, lower energy intensity, and improved energy efficiency. Therefore, government and energy policymakers should improve energy efficiency, cost, and productiveness. That is, they should change energy compositions and augment energy technology innovation, thus, increasing renewable share to 15% by 2026, reducing wood and charcoal by about 69%, and increasing natural gas to about 776%. Energy policymakers should enhance the installation of smart energy, cloud energy solution, tokenization of energy system and storage.     

Lifestyle and energy consumption: a comparison of four collective communities in transition

This study applies sociological analysis to energy consumption trends in four small kibbutzim in southern Israel, utilizing the history of these communities as a “natural experiment” for observing how these trends are affected by the transition from collective to private community rules and norms. After normalizing for community size, the intensity of electrical energy consumption was found to decrease in the presence of changes that either (a) increase the efficiency of indoor space use or (b) encourage the active management of energy consumption. The findings indicate that both components must be present to achieve a sustained reduction in community energy intensity and that such an outcome is affected by, but not dependent on, the community’s level of privatization. It is proposed that the unique circumstances of the transitional kibbutz can shed light on behavioral issues which are central to the efficiency of energy consumption in society at large.     

Can market oriented economic reforms contribute to energy efficiency improvement? Evidence from China

Since China accelerated its market oriented economic reforms at the end of 1992, its energy intensity has declined 3.6% annually over 1993–2005. However, its energy intensity declined 4.2% annually during its first reform period 1979–1992. Therefore, can we conclude that the accelerated marketization since the end of 1992 has made no contribution to its energy efficiency improvement? In order to answer this challenging question, we examine the changes of energy own-price elasticity, as well as the elasticities of substitution between energy and non-energy (capital and labor) in China during the periods of 1979–1992 and 1993–2003. Generally, in transition or developing economies, holding the technology and output level fixed, if the energy own-price elasticity (algebraic value) declines or the substitution elasticity between factors rises, they will contribute to energy efficiency improvement. Our empirical study finds that: (1) during 1979–1992, the energy own-price elasticity is positive (0.285), and capital-energy, labor-energy are both Morishima complementary; which indicates a distorted energy price and inefficient allocation; and (2) during 1993–2003, the own-price elasticity for energy is negative (−1.236), and capital-energy and labor-energy are both Morishima substitute. All factor demands become more elastic, and all elasticities of substitution increase. The implication is that the accelerated marketization contributes substantially to energy efficiency improvement since 1993.     

Overview of current energy-efficiency policies in China

From 1970 to 2001, China was able to significantly limit energy demand growth through aggressive energy-efficiency programs. Energy use per unit of gross domestic product (GDP) declined by approximately 5% per year during this period. However, the period 2002–2005 saw energy use per unit of GDP increase an average of 3.8% per year. To stem this out-of-control growth in energy demand, in November 2005 the Chinese government enunciated a mandatory goal of 20% reduction of energy intensity between 2006 and 2010. The National People's Congress passed legislation identifying the National Reform and Development Commission as the lead agency to design and carry out programs in support of this goal. These policies and programs, created after almost a decade of decline of the energy-efficiency policy apparatus, have had considerable impact. Although initial efforts have not been sufficient to meet the annual declines required to reach the ambitious 20% energy intensity target, the latest reports indicate that China may now be on track to meet this goal. The paper provides an assessment of these policies and programs to begin to understand issues that will play a critical role in China's energy and economic future. Activities undertaken in China will have a significant influence on the global effort to reduce the growth, and later the absolute quantity, of greenhouse gas emissions.     

The strategy of energy-related carbon emission reduction in Shanghai

This paper presents a system analysis approach on carbon emission reduction at urban level, taking Shanghai as a case. Shanghai's current carbon emission was analyzed based on survey. The prospective carbon emission of Shanghai in 2010 and 2020 were estimated based on scenarios analysis. The main results are: (1) the primary energy consumption of Shanghai shows a continuously increasing trend in recent decades; (2) the energy consumption for production is where the majority of Shanghai's energy consumption is being used; (3) among the total energy consumed, secondary industry energy consumption occupies the biggest share; (4) computations indicate that Shanghai's current carbon emission steadily increased from 1990 to 2005 and reached 58.05 Mt C-eq in 2005, a factor of two times its 1990 emission; (5) if Shanghai can realistically meet the target of the 11th Five-Year Plan, the carbon emission reduction will reach to 17.26 and 111.04 Mt C-eq in 2010 and 2020, respectively, which represents a reduction of nearly 46% below its current growth trajectory in 2020. Based on these results, three strategic suggestions for developing low-carbon economy in Shanghai have been proposed, which can also be applied to other similar cities in China.     

Taking out 1 billion tons of CO2: The magic of China's 11th Five-Year Plan?

China's 11th Five-Year Plan (FYP) sets an ambitious target for energy-efficiency improvement: energy intensity of the country's gross domestic product (GDP) should be reduced by 20% from 2005 to 2010 [National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), 2006. Overview of the 11th Five Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development. NDRC, Beijing]. This is the first time that a quantitative and binding target has been set for energy efficiency, and signals a major shift in China's strategic thinking about its long-term economic and energy development. The 20% energy-intensity target also translates into an annual reduction of over 1.5 billion tons of CO₂ by 2010, making the Chinese effort one of the most significant carbon mitigation efforts in the world today. While it is still too early to tell whether China will achieve this target, this paper attempts to understand the trend in energy intensity in China and to explore a variety of options toward meeting the 20% target using a detailed end-use energy model.     

产业结构、能效及一次能源构成对能源强度的影响分析

一个国家的能源强度ε主要取决于其产业结构、一次能源构成和能源利用效率3个因素．对这3个因素与能源强度之间的关系进行定量分析,以期寻找一种新的研究分析的方法。首先定义一个新的参数——有效能源强度ε′,它是能源强度与能效之积。产业结构转型对能源强度影响显著,在能效36．81％和2006年各产业能源强度不变的前提下,若中国第三产业占GDP的比率从39％增至70％,能源强度可降低1／3。能效是决定能源强度的重要因素．在上述产业结构转型的基础上,如果中国能效从36．81％提高到50％,则能源强度可再降低25％以上。如果中国能够在2020年实现上述两个目标,则2020年的能源强度有可能降低到0．58t标煤／万元,2005～2020年能源消费弹性系数f为0．30。将能源消费弹性系数f分解成有效能源强度、能效和参数α之积,f正比于有效能源强度降低程度,反比于能效提高程度,产业结构调整和能效对f都有重大影响。中美两国在一次能源构成、终端利用模式和能效方面的对比分析有助于认识我国的节能潜力。一次能源构成转型给中国大幅度提高能效提供了极好的机遇,其主要内涵一是提高天然气占一次能源构成的比例,二是煤炭的CCS利用。     

地方落实“十一五”节能目标难点和对策的调查

我国在“十一五”规划纲要中提出“十一五”末万元GDP能耗下降20％左右的目标,各省、市、自治区正在积极落实这一目标。山东、江苏、山西省3省既有能源消费大省,也有能源生产大省,可作为沿海能源匮乏省份和内陆能源资源丰富省份的代表。调研表明,3个省已经着手开展能耗指标分解、节能保障机制的建立、能源消费监测等基础性工作,但同时普遍存在着追求高GDP增长速度,缺乏调整结构的有效手段等问题,制约“十一五”节能目标的实现。解析山东、江苏、山西落实节能降耗的举措、经验及其遇到的问题,对全国乃至其他地区开展节能降耗工作具有借鉴意义。本文就一些共性问题进行了归纳和总结,并提出了相关对策建议。     

The energy intensity target in China's 11th Five-Year Plan period—Local implementation and achievements in Shanxi Province

Facing the mounting pressure on energy security and increasing environmental concerns about air pollution and climate change, the Chinese government set a mandatory goal of 20% reduction of energy intensity in its 11th Five-Year Plan period (FYP, 2006–2010). In this paper we use Shanxi province to illustrate how policies and measures are implemented in practice at a provincial level as a response to the National FYP issued by the central government. Local policies are described and their effects are analyzed. We compare reported energy saving achievements with our own estimates and conclude that the achievements in Shanxi probably have been substantial since the start of the 11th FYP period. The most important measures taken by provincial and local governments seem to be in the secondary sector, such as Top-200/Top-1000 program and phasing out outdated technologies. However, Shanxi has still a long way to go to achieve satisfactory energy use. Further improvement of energy intensity will require continuing efforts. Although many measures are necessary, improving the energy efficiency in heavy industries and reducing the dependence on these industries should be particularly effective.     

The decline of sectorial components of the world's energy intensity

The world's primary energy consumption in the last 40 years has been increasing at 2.2%/year while GDP growth has been 3.4%/years over the same period. The decline of the energy intensity (I=E/GDP) has been, therefore, of 1.2%/year. In order to reduce the world's consumption growth proposal have been made to reduce the world's energy intensity by 40% by 2030 which corresponds to a reduction of 2.5%/year, roughly the double of the historical decline. Our analysis shoes that such goal could only be achieved by an unprecedented reduction of the energy intensity of “services” (which represent less than half the world energy consumption) since energy intensity of industry has remained practically constant in the last 40 years.     

Thailand's energy security indicators

This study presents an assessment of the energy security of Thailand using nineteen indicators. The assessment period is for a 45 year period (1986–2030), and used published data for 1986–2009, and applying three energy scenarios for the period 2010–2030. The three scenarios considered were “high economic growth and least cost option (HEG&LC)”, “low carbon society (LCS)”, and “current policy (CP)”. The results show that LCS scenario shows higher energy security or lower vulnerability to energy risk on a long term. However, to achieve this, the additional target of energy saving by 2030 should be changed from 25% reduction of energy intensity of final energy consumption to 60% energy intensity reduction of primary energy compared to 2009 level. One benefit would be an increase in the non-carbon incentive fuel portfolio by 33% of total primary energy supply in 2030. A reduction in crude oil and natural gas domestic production will be offset by an increase in their imports. CO₂ emission reduction of 123 MtCO₂ and improvements in domestic energy reserves will also result.     

Securing energy efficiency as a high priority: scenarios for common appliance electricity consumption in Thailand

Between 1995 and 2008, Thailand’s energy efficiency programs produced an estimated total of 8,369 GWh/year energy savings and 1,471 MW avoided peak power. Despite these impressive saving figures, relatively little future scenario analysis is available to policy makers. Before the 2008 global financial crisis, electricity planners forecasted 5–6% long-term increases in demand. We explored options for efficiency improvements in Thailand’s residential sector, which consumes more than 20% of Thailand’s total electricity consumption of 150 TWh/year. We constructed baseline and efficient scenarios for the period 2006–2026, for air conditioners, refrigerators, fans, rice cookers, and compact fluorescent light bulbs. We drew on an appliance database maintained by Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand’s voluntary labeling program. For the five appliances modeled, the efficiency scenario results in total savings of 12% of baseline consumption after 10 years and 29% of baseline after 20 years. Approximately 80% of savings come from more stringent standards for air conditioners, including phasing out unregulated air conditioner sales within 6 years. Shifting appliance efficiency standards to current best-in-market levels within 6 years produces additional savings. We discuss institutional aspects of energy planning in Thailand that thus far have limited the consideration of energy efficiency as a high-priority resource.