The costs of optimism and the benefits of pessimism.

Research suggests that optimism feels good. However, does it always feel good? We suggest that the benefits (and costs) of optimism and pessimism depend on their timing. A study of exam score estimates revealed that, after controlling for actual exam performance, optimistic expectations are unrelated to how people feel immediately before feedback, in contrast to the common wisdom that optimism “feels good.” Furthermore, optimism has costs after feedback—participants who predicted higher scores before feedback felt worse after learning their scores. Finally, people seem to be aware of the potential costs of optimism—participants who predicted higher scores before feedback also anticipated experiencing greater disappointment should they perform poorly. These findings suggest that people may proactively manage their expectations to avoid the costs of optimism. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Changes in attractiveness of elected, rejected, and precluded alternatives: A comparison of happy and unhappy individuals.

In 3 studies the authors compared the responses of self-rated happy and unhappy students in situations involving choice. In Study 1, high school seniors evaluated colleges after applying for admission and then later after making their selections. Happy students tended to be more satisfied than unhappy ones with the colleges they ultimately chose and those they ultimately rejected, and they more sharply devalued the colleges that rejected them. Studies 2 and 3 dealt with postdecisional consequences of less consequential decisions about fancy desserts. In Study 2, unhappy participants sharply derogated the desserts they rejected or were denied, relative to those selected by or for them, whereas happy participants showed no such derogation. These group differences, moreover, proved to be largely independent of self-esteem and optimism. The design of Study 3 helped explicate underlying mechanisms by inducing both groups to distract themselves or to self-reflect. Doing so eliminated all group differences. Implications of the results for the link between cognitive processes and hedonic consequences are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

How prevalent is wishful thinking? Misattribution of arousal causes optimism and pessimism in subjective probabilities.

People appear to be unrealistically optimistic about their future prospects, as reflected by theory and research in the fields of psychology, organizational behavior, behavioral economics, and behavioral finance. Many real-world examples (e.g., consumer behavior during economic recessions), however, suggest that people are not always overly optimistic. I suggest that people can be both overly optimistic and pessimistic in their beliefs about future events, depending on whether they focus on success or on failure. More specifically, people judge the likelihood of desirable and undesirable events to be higher than similar neutral events because they misattribute the arousal those events evoke to their greater perceived likelihood. I demonstrated this stake-likelihood effect in 4 studies. In Study 1, arousal was shown to increase likelihood judgments. Study 2 demonstrated that such elevated likelihood judgments are due to misattribution of the arousal from having a stake in the outcome. Study 3 demonstrated that such misattribution of arousal occurs for desirable and undesirable events. Study 4 showed the effects of optimism and pessimism on likelihood judgments in a field setting with soccer fans. Together, the findings suggest that wishful thinking might be less prevalent than previously believed. Pessimism might be as likely as optimism in subjective probabilities. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Self-esteem: Change and stability between ages 13 and 23.

Summarizes several studies on self-esteem between 13 and 23 yrs of age, as well as results from the Monitoring the Future project (MFP) to show that global self-esteem, as measured by scales like the Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale, increases over that age span. The MFP consists of annual questionnaire surveys of 15,000–29,000 high school seniors and some follow-up questionnaires after graduation. Using MFP data from the classes of 1976 through 1979, results support an increase in self-esteem with age. In spite of the considerable increase in mean levels, there is also considerable stability of self-esteem. Using both single- and multiple-indicator models with correlated errors, the stabilities of self-esteem are shown to be fairly high. Annual stabilities are estimated to be between .6 and .9, depending on the model and on the definition of stability. (28 ref) (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Unrealistic optimism about future life events.

In Study 1, over 200 college students estimated how much their own chance of experiencing 42 events differed from the chances of their classmates. Overall, Ss rated their own chances to be significantly above average for positive events and below average for negative events. Cognitive and motivational considerations led to predictions that degree of desirability, perceived probability, personal experience, perceived controllability, and stereotype salience would influence the amount of optimistic bias evoked by different events. All predictions were supported, although the pattern of effects differed for positive and negative events. Study 2 with 120 female undergraduates from Study 1 tested the idea that people are unrealistically optimistic because they focus on factors that improve their own chances of achieving desirable outcomes and fail to realize that others may have just as many factors in their favor. Ss listed the factors that they thought influenced their own chances of experiencing 8 future events. When such lists were read by a 2nd group of Ss, the amount of unrealistic optimism shown by this 2nd group for the same 8 events decreased significantly, although it was not eliminated. (22 ref) (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Attributional style and self-esteem; The prediction of emotional distress following a midterm exam.

A midterm design was used to determine whether students' attributional style for negative achievement events interacts with self-esteem and a lower-than-expected exam grade to predict changes in measures of specific and nonspecific depression and anxiety. Participants were 141 students who completed baseline measures of attributional style and self-esteem, as well as affective measures on several occasions before and after receipt of midterm grades. A pessimistic attributional style for negative events interacted with self-esteem and outcome to predict residual changes in a combined measure of nonspecific distress and anxious arousal (marginal trend) but not a combined measure of specific depressive symptoms. Unexpectedly, the greatest residual increases in distress occurred among low-self-esteem pessimists who experienced a nonfailure outcome. These effects did not appear to be mediated by changes in hopelessness. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Mind-set and close relationships: When bias leads to (in)accurate predictions.

The authors investigated whether mind-set influences the accuracy of relationship predictions. Because people are more biased in their information processing when thinking about implementing an important goal, relationship predictions made in an implemental mind-set were expected to be less accurate than those made in a more impartial deliberative mind-set. In Study 1, open-ended thoughts of students about to leave for university were coded for mind-set. In Study 2, mind-set about a major life goal was assessed using a self-report measure. In Study 3, mind-set was experimentally manipulated. Overall, mind-set interacted with forecasts to predict relationship survival. Forecasts were more accurate in a deliberative mind-set than in an implemental mind-set. This effect was more pronounced for long-term than for short-term relationship survival. Finally, deliberatives were not pessimistic; implementals were unduly optimistic. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Long-term impact of parental divorce on optimism and trust: Changes in general assumptions or narrow beliefs?

Two studies were conducted to examine the long-term impact of parental divorce on beliefs about the self and others. In Study 1, college-aged children of divorce and students from intact families did not differ on 8 basic assumptions or on measures of depression. Those whose parents had divorced, however, were less optimistic about the success of their own future marriages. Assumptions about the benevolence of people best predicted the marital optimism of the parental divorce group, but not of the intact family group. In Study 2, assumptions about the benevolence of people were explored in terms of trust beliefs. College-aged children of divorce and a matched sample from intact homes differed only on marriage-related beliefs, not on generalized trust. Children of divorce reported less trust of a future spouse and were less optimistic about marriage. Exploratory analyses found that continuous conflict in family of origin adversely affected all levels of trust. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Self-esteem and sources of cognitive bias in the evaluation of past performance

Examined relationships between self-esteem and cognitive biases involved in processing self-relevant information. 49 male and 52 female paid college students completed a series of self-esteem measures, participated in an anagram-solving task, and then answered questions concerning (a) their standards for successful achievement and (b) their retention of solved and unsolved anagrams. Low self-esteem males had higher discrepancies between their criteria for successful achievement and perceived performances than high-self-esteem males; females did not show this relationship. Predicted relationships between self-esteem and retention of solved vs unsolved anagrams were not found for either males or females. As anticipated, no significant relationship was found between level of performance and self-esteem. Implications for interpreting the self-esteem construct and for identifying sex differences in self-esteem are discussed. (21 ref) (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Effects of self-focused rumination on negative thinking and interpersonal problem solving.

Hypotheses about the effects of self-focused rumination on interpretations of events and interpersonal problem solving were tested in 3 studies with dysphoric and nondysphoric participants. Study 1 supported the hypothesis that dysphoric participants induced to ruminatively self-focus on their feelings and personal characteristics would endorse more negative, biased interpretations of hypothetical situations than dysphoric participants induced to distract themselves from their mood, or nondysphoric participants. Study 2 showed that dysphoric participants who ruminated were more pessimistic about positive events in their future than the other 3 groups. Study 3 showed that dysphoric ruminating participants generated less effective solutions to interpersonal problems than the other 3 groups. In Studies 1 and 3, dysphoric ruminating participants also offered the most pessimistic explanations for interpersonal problems and hypothetical negative events. In all 3 studies, dysphoric participants who distracted were as optimistic and effective in solving problems as nondysphoric participants. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Self-compassion and reactions to unpleasant self-relevant events: The implications of treating oneself kindly.

Five studies investigated the cognitive and emotional processes by which self-compassionate people deal with unpleasant life events. In the various studies, participants reported on negative events in their daily lives, responded to hypothetical scenarios, reacted to interpersonal feedback, rated their or others' videotaped performances in an awkward situation, and reflected on negative personal experiences. Results from Study 1 showed that self-compassion predicted emotional and cognitive reactions to negative events in everyday life, and Study 2 found that self-compassion buffered people against negative self-feelings when imagining distressing social events. In Study 3, self-compassion moderated negative emotions after receiving ambivalent feedback, particularly for participants who were low in self-esteem. Study 4 found that low-self-compassionate people undervalued their videotaped performances relative to observers. Study 5 experimentally induced a self-compassionate perspective and found that self-compassion leads people to acknowledge their role in negative events without feeling overwhelmed with negative emotions. In general, these studies suggest that self-compassion attenuates people's reactions to negative events in ways that are distinct from and, in some cases, more beneficial than self-esteem. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Self-esteem and threats to self: Implications for self-construals and interpersonal perceptions.

In 4 studies, the authors examined interpersonal perceptions as a function of self-construals and ego threats for those with high and low self-esteem. Previous research (T. F. Heatherton & K. D. Vohs, 2000a) found that after threat, high self-esteem people were rated as less likable by an unacquainted dyad partner, whereas low self-esteem people were rated as more likable. Study 1 showed that after threat, high self-esteem people seek competency feedback, whereas low self-esteem people seek interpersonal feedback. Study 2 showed that high self-esteem people become more independent after threat, whereas low self-esteem people become more interdependent. Study 3 linked differences in independence versus interdependence to interpersonal evaluations. Study 4 found that differences in independent and interdependent self-construals statistically accounted for differences in likability and personality perceptions of high and low self-esteem people after threat. Thus, the combination of threat and self-esteem alters people's focus on different self-aspects, which consequently leads to different interpersonal appraisals. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Cultural variations in optimistic and pessimistic bias: Do Easterners really expect the worst and Westerners really expect the best when predicting future life events?

The authors compared levels of optimistic and pessimistic bias in the prediction of positive and negative life events between European Americans and Japanese. Study 1 showed that European Americans compared with Japanese were more likely to predict positive events to occur to self than to others. The opposite pattern emerged in the prediction of negative events. Study 2 replicated these cultural differences. Furthermore, positive associations emerged between predictions and occurrence of life events 2 months later for both European Americans and Japanese. Across both studies, results of within-groups analyses indicated that both groups expected negative events to be more likely to occur to others than to self (optimistic bias). In addition, Japanese expected positive events to be more likely to occur to others than to self (pessimistic bias). However, European Americans failed to show the expected optimistic bias for positive events. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Deconfounding the effects of dominance and social acceptance on self-esteem.

Three studies examined the independent effects of social acceptance and dominance on self-esteem. In Studies 1 and 2, participants received false feedback regarding their relative acceptance and dominance in a laboratory group, and state self-esteem was assessed. Results indicated that acceptance and dominance feedback had independent effects on self-esteem. Study 2 showed that these effects were not moderated by individual differences in participants' self-reported responsivity to being accepted versus dominant. In Study 3, participants completed multiple measures of perceived dominance, perceived acceptance, and trait self-esteem. Results showed that both perceived dominance and perceived acceptance accounted for unique variance in trait self-esteem, but that perceived acceptance consistently accounted for substantially more variance than perceived dominance. Also, trait self-esteem was related to the degree to which participants felt accepted by specific people in their lives, but not to the degree to which participants thought those individuals perceived them as dominant. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Causal loops and other intercausal perceptions in attributions from exam performance.

Conducted 2 studies to determine whether students perceive meaningful influence patterns among the causal variables involved in determining exam performance. In Study 1, 81 students retrospectively accounted for their midterm exam performance. It was observed that the Ss perceived a number of both unidirectional and bidirectional intercausal effects, and that these were related to both perceived success and causal attributions. In Study 2, 88 students were requested to explain the exam performance of a hypothetical student. Results corroborating those of Study 1 were obtained. (32 ref) (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Modeling cognitive adaptation: A longitudinal investigation of the impact of individual differences and coping on college adjustment and performance.

Drawing on cognitive adaptation theory, optimism, psychological control, and self-esteem were explored as longitudinal predictors of adjustment to college in a sample of 672 freshmen. Although a direct effect of optimism on adjustment was found, most of the predicted effects were mediated by coping methods. Controlling for initial positive and negative mood, the beneficial effects of optimism, control, and self-esteem on adjustment were mediated by the nonuse of avoidance coping, greater use of active coping, and greater seeking of social support. Alternative models of the causal relations among these variables did not fit the data as well as the a priori mediational model. The results of a 2-yr follow-up indicated that self-esteem and control predicted greater motivation and higher grades, controlling for college entrance exam scores. Implications for cognitive adaptation theory and for interventions with populations under stress are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Forsaking optimism.

Although subjective optimism is generally regarded as adaptive, people show a sharp decline in optimism when they anticipate self-relevant feedback in the near future. The authors discuss moderators of the shift in future outlooks as well as reasons for the shift. The authors propose that the shift can reflect a response to new information or an attempt to brace for undesired outcomes. Both explanations represent a response to an adaptive need to prepare for uncertain states of the world. Finally, the authors discuss unanswered questions and directions for future research. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Discriminant validity of well-being measures.

The convergent and discriminant validities of well-being concepts were examined using multitrait-multimethod matrix analyses (D. T. Campbell & D. W. Fiske, 1959) on 3 sets of data. In Study 1, participants completed measures of life satisfaction, positive affect, negative affect, self-esteem, and optimism on 2 occasions 4 weeks apart and also obtained 3 informant ratings. In Study 2, participants completed each of the 5 measures on 2 occasions 2 years apart and collected informant reports at Time 2. In Study 3, participants completed 2 different scales for each of the 5 constructs. Analyses showed that (a) life satisfaction is discriminable from positive and negative affect, (b) positive affect is discriminable from negative affect, (c) life satisfaction is discriminable from optimism and self-esteem, and (d) optimism is separable from trait measures of negative affect. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Cultural variations on optimistic and pessimistic bias for self versus a sibling: Is there evidence for self-enhancement in the West and for self-criticism in the East when the referent group is specified?

A culturally relevant framework was used to examine variations on optimistic and pessimistic bias in Westerners and Easterners. Study 1 showed that 136 European Americans compared with 159 Japanese were more likely to predict typical positive events to occur to self than to a sibling. The opposite pattern emerged in the prediction of typical negative events. Study 2 replicated these findings on the basis of predictions for atypical events in 175 European Americans and 130 Japanese. Across both studies, within-groups analyses indicated that European Americans held an optimistic bias in the prediction of positive and negative events, whereas Japanese held a pessimistic bias for negative events. These findings are taken to offer support for presumed cultural differences in self-enhancement and self-criticism between Westerners and Easterners, respectively. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Depression, self-focused attention, and expectancies for positive and negative future life events for self and others.

In two studies, we examined depressed and nondepressed persons' judgments of the probability of future positive and negative life events occurring to themselves and to others. Study 1 demonstrated that depressed subjects were generally less optimistic than their nondepressed counterparts: Although nondepressed subjects rated positive events as more likely to happen to themselves than negative events, depressed subjects did not. In addition, relative to nondepressed subjects, depressed subjects rated positive events as less likely to occur to themselves and more likely to occur to others and negative events as more likely to occur to both self and others. Study 2 investigated the role that differential levels of self-focused attention might play in mediating these differences. On the basis of prior findings that depressed persons generally engage in higher levels of self-focus than nondepressed persons do and the notion that self-focus activates one's self-schema, we hypothesized that inducing depressed subjects to focus externally would attenuate their pessimistic tendencies. Data from Study 2 supported the hypothesis that high levels of self-focus partially mediate depressive pessimism: Whereas self-focused depressed subjects were more pessimistic than nondepressed subjects, externally focused depressed subjects were not. The role of attentional focus in maintaining these and other depressive pessimistic tendencies was discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)