Evidence needed to manage freshwater ecosystems in a changing climate: Turning adaptation principles into practice

It is widely accepted that climate change poses severe threats to freshwater ecosystems. Here we examine the scientific basis for adaptively managing vulnerable habitats and species. Our views are shaped by a literature survey of adaptation in practice, and by expert opinion. We assert that adaptation planning is constrained by uncertainty about evolving climatic and non-climatic pressures, by difficulties in predicting species- and ecosystem-level responses to these forces, and by the plasticity of management goals. This implies that adaptation measures will have greatest acceptance when they deliver multiple benefits, including, but not limited to, the amelioration of climate impacts. We suggest that many principles for biodiversity management under climate change are intuitively correct but hard to apply in practice. This view is tested using two commonly assumed doctrines: “increase shading of vulnerable reaches through tree planting” (to reduce water temperatures); and “set hands off flows” (to halt potentially harmful abstractions during low flow episodes). We show that the value of riparian trees for shading, water cooling and other functions is partially understood, but extension of this knowledge to water temperature management is so far lacking. Likewise, there is a long history of environmental flow assessment for allocating water to competing uses, but more research is needed into the effectiveness of ecological objectives based on target flows. We therefore advocate more multi-disciplinary field and model experimentation to test the cost-effectiveness and efficacy of adaptation measures applied at different scales. In particular, there is a need for a major collaborative programme to: examine natural adaptation to climatic variation in freshwater species; identify where existing environmental practice may be insufficient; review the fitness of monitoring networks to detect change; translate existing knowledge into guidance; and implement best practice within existing regulatory frameworks.     

Building a better future: An exploration of beliefs about climate change and perceived need for adaptation within the building industry

The present research explored beliefs about climate change among an important yet relatively understudied population: representatives of the building industry. We also assessed the perceived adequacy of current climate-related actions within the industry and the perceived need for developing new practices. The results of a survey administered within a large engineering firm suggest a fairly high level of concern about climate issues within this sector: participants perceived climate change to be an important issue, current practices to be inadequate, and a need to develop new ways of addressing climate change. Despite this, there was notable and consequential variability in how participants thought about climate change. Higher levels of seniority were associated with greater satisfaction with current practices, and the belief that climate change was a natural rather than man-made phenomena was associated with a reduced support for the idea that changes to current practices were necessary. In addition, when thinking about climate relevant actions (whether current practices or the alternatives) participants focussed almost exclusively on mitigation rather than adaptation. The implications of these patterns for innovation around climate change within the building industry are discussed.     

Contributions of meteorology to the phenology of cyanobacterial blooms: implications for future climate change

Cyanobacterial blooms are often a result of eutrophication. Recently, however, their expansion has also been found to be associated with changes in climate. To elucidate the effects of climatic variables on the expansion of cyanobacterial blooms in Taihu, China, we analyzed the relationships between climatic variables and bloom events which were retrieved by satellite images. We then assessed the contribution of each climate variable to the phenology of blooms using multiple regression models. Our study demonstrates that retrieving ecological information from satellite images is meritorious for large-scale and long-term ecological research in freshwater ecosystems. Our results show that the phenological changes of blooms at an inter-annual scale are strongly linked to climate in Taihu during the past 23 yr. Cyanobacterial blooms occur earlier and last longer with the increase of temperature, sunshine hours, and global radiation and the decrease of wind speed. Furthermore, the duration increases when the daily averages of maximum, mean, and minimum temperature each exceed 20.3 °C, 16.7 °C, and 13.7 °C, respectively. Among these factors, sunshine hours and wind speed are the primary contributors to the onset of the blooms, explaining 84.6% of their variability over the past 23 yr. These factors are also good predictors of the variability in the duration of annual blooms and determined 58.9% of the variability in this parameter. Our results indicate that when nutrients are in sufficiently high quantities to sustain the formation of cyanobacterial blooms, climatic variables become crucial in predicting cyanobacterial bloom events. Climate changes should be considered when we evaluate how much the amount of nutrients should be reduced in Taihu for lake management.     

Preparation of future weather data to study the impact of climate change on buildings

The dynamic interaction between building systems and external climate is extremely complex, involving a large number of difficult-to-predict variables. In order to study the impact of climate change on the built environment, the use of building simulation techniques together with forecast weather data are often necessary. Since most of building simulation programs require hourly meteorological input data for their thermal comfort and energy evaluation, the provision of suitable weather data becomes critical. In this paper, the methods used to prepare future weather data for the study of the impact of climate change are reviewed. The advantages and disadvantages of each method are discussed. The inherent relationship between these methods is also illustrated. Based on these discussions and the analysis of Australian historic climatic data, an effective framework and procedure to generate future hourly weather data is presented. It is shown that this method is not only able to deal with different levels of available information regarding the climate change, but also can retain the key characters of a “typical” year weather data for a desired period.     

A review of the impact of climate change on future nitrate concentrations in groundwater of the UK

This paper reviews the potential impacts of climate change on nitrate concentrations in groundwater of the UK using a Source-Pathway-Receptor framework. Changes in temperature, precipitation quantity and distribution, and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations will affect the agricultural nitrate source term through changes in both soil processes and agricultural productivity. Non-agricultural source terms, such as urban areas and atmospheric deposition, are also expected to be affected. The implications for the rate of nitrate leaching to groundwater as a result of these changes are not yet fully understood but predictions suggest that leaching rate may increase under future climate scenarios. Climate change will affect the hydrological cycle with changes to recharge, groundwater levels and resources and flow processes. These changes will impact on concentrations of nitrate in abstracted water and other receptors, such as surface water and groundwater-fed wetlands. The implications for nitrate leaching to groundwater as a result of climate changes are not yet well enough understood to be able to make useful predictions without more site-specific data. The few studies which address the whole cycle show likely changes in nitrate leaching ranging from limited increases to a possible doubling of aquifer concentrations by 2100. These changes may be masked by nitrate reductions from improved agricultural practices, but a range of adaption measures need to be identified. Future impact may also be driven by economic responses to climate change.     

Impacts of climate change on phosphorus loading from a grassland catchment: Implications for future management

Dynamic modelling was used to quantify the impact of projected climate change, and potential changes in population and land use, on phosphorus (P) export from a sub-catchment in SW Ireland using the Generalised Watershed Loading Functions (GWLF) model. Overall the results indicated that the increase in annual total phosphorus loads attributable to climate change was greater than that from either population or land use change, and therefore that future climate variability will pose an increasingly significant threat to the successful long-term implementation of catchment management initiatives. The seasonal pattern in projected P export mirrored changes in streamflow, with higher rates between January and April and lower rates in summer. The potential reduction in export in summer was, however, negated when increases in population were included in simulations. A change in the slurry spreading period from that stipulated in national regulations to the months between April and September could potentially mitigate against future increases in dissolved P export in spring. The results indicate that projected changes in climate should be included when undertaking modelling exercises in support of decision making for catchment management plans.     

Developing future hourly weather files for studying the impact of climate change on building energy performance in Hong Kong

The concern on climate change leads to growing demand for minimization of energy use. As building is one of the largest energy consuming sectors, it is essential to study the impact of climate change on building energy performance. In this regard, building energy simulation software is a useful tool. A set of appropriate typical weather files is one of the key factors towards successful building energy simulation. This paper reports the work of developing a set of weather data files for subtropical Hong Kong, taking into the effect of future climate change. Projected monthly mean climate changes from a selected General Circulation Model for three future periods under two emission scenarios were integrated into an existing typical meteorological year weather file by a morphing method. Through this work, six sets of future weather files for subtropical Hong Kong were produced. A typical office building and a residential flat were modeled using building simulation program EnergyPlus. Hourly building energy simulations were carried out. The simulated results indicate that there will be substantial increase in A/C energy consumption under the impact of future climate change, ranging from 2.6% to 14.3% and from 3.7% to 24% for office building and residential flat, respectively.     

NOM degradation during river infiltration: Effects of the climate variables temperature and discharge

Most peri-alpine shallow aquifers fed by rivers are oxic and the drinking water derived by riverbank filtration is generally of excellent quality. However, observations during past heat waves suggest that water quality may be affected by climate change due to effects on redox processes such as aerobic respiration, denitrification, reductive dissolution of manganese(III/IV)- and iron(III)(hydr)oxides that occur during river infiltration. To assess the dependence of these redox processes on the climate-related variables temperature and discharge, we performed periodic and targeted (summer and winter) field sampling campaigns at the Thur River, Switzerland, and laboratory column experiments simulating the field conditions. Typical summer and winter field conditions could be successfully simulated by the column experiments. Dissolved organic matter (DOM) was found not to be a major electron donor for aerobic respiration in summer and the DOM consumption did not reveal a significant correlation with temperature and discharge. It is hypothesized that under summer conditions, organic matter associated with the aquifer material (particulate organic matter, POM) is responsible for most of the consumption of dissolved oxygen (DO), which was the most important electron acceptor in both the field and the column system. For typical summer conditions at temperatures >20 °C, complete depletion of DO was observed in the column system and in a piezometer located only a few metres from the river. Both in the field system and the column experiments, nitrate acted as a redox buffer preventing the release of manganese(II) and iron(II). For periodic field observations over five years, DO consumption showed a pronounced temperature dependence (correlation coefficient r = 0.74) and therefore a seasonal pattern, which seemed to be mostly explained by the temperature dependence of the calculated POM consumption (r = 0.7). The river discharge was found to be highly and positively correlated with DO consumption (r = 0.85), suggesting an enhanced POM input during flood events. This high correlation could only be observed for the low-temperature range (T < 15 °C). For temperatures >15 °C, DO consumption was already high (almost complete) and the impact of discharge could not be resolved. Based on our results, we estimate the risk for similar river-infiltration systems to release manganese(II) and iron(II) to be low during future average summer conditions. However, long-lasting heat waves might lead to a consumption of the nitrate buffer, inducing a mobilization of manganese and iron.     

The effects of climate change on energy consumption of cooling systems in Tehran

Energy consumption in buildings is heavily affected by climate change. It causes significant variations of the outdoor design conditions, cooling and heating loads. In this paper, a total of 40 years (1967-2006) of hourly temperature data were considered in four decades and outdoor design conditions for each decade were calculated. It was found that wet-bulb temperature (WBT) has increased by 3.28 °C during the mentioned period, which impacts on design and selection of the cooling equipment. The results show that cooling hours is projected to increase around 15% over the whole 1967-2006 period. The most important result found in this study is the inability of direct evaporative cooling (DEC) systems in preparing comfort condition after 1997, whereas these systems provided thermal comfort in Tehran's buildings from 1967 to 1996. The prediction of climate change impacts on the outdoor design conditions and cooling systems performance until 2020 demonstrates dry bulb temperature (DBT) and WBT increase 1.05 °C and 2.42 °C respectively. Hence, indirect-direct evaporative cooling systems (IDEC) may not be responsible for the years after 2016. Besides, the additional energy for absorption and vapor compression (VC) cooling systems will grow quickly in the future.     

An integrated city-level planning process to address the impacts of climate change in Kenya: The case of Mombasa

Climate change presents one of the greatest challenges in urban development planning, yet leadership from planning can help society grapple with this challenge. Success in planning is especially important in coastal cities, where urbanization is heavily influenced by the coastline, and development planning processes have to take into consideration the socio-economic as well as ecological reasons why cities were located at the coast. This paper investigates the possibilities of and impediments to an integrated city-level planning framework that is responsive to climate change, using the case of the East African coastal city of Mombasa. It contends that both the principle of subsidiarity as well as the established law give the municipal government the necessary jurisdiction over the baseline issues underlying city management, which through stakeholder engagement, can be leveraged to facilitate an integrated climate change-responsive planning.     

Water and heat transport in boreal soils: implications for soil response to climate change

Soil water content strongly affects permafrost dynamics by changing the soil thermal properties. However, the movement of liquid water, which plays an important role in the heat transport of temperate soils, has been under-represented in boreal studies. Two different heat transport models with and without convective heat transport were compared to measurements of soil temperatures in four boreal sites with different stand ages and drainage classes. Overall, soil temperatures during the growing season tended to be over-estimated by 2-4 °C when movement of liquid water and water vapor was not represented in the model. The role of heat transport in water has broad implications for site responses to warming and suggests reduced vulnerability of permafrost to thaw at drier sites. This result is consistent with field observations of faster thaw in response to warming in wet sites compared to drier sites over the past 30 years in Canadian boreal forests. These results highlight that representation of water flow in heat transport models is important to simulate future soil thermal or permafrost dynamics under a changing climate.     

Assessment of climate change impact on residential building heating and cooling energy requirement in Australia

This study investigated the potential impact of climate change on the heating and cooling (H/C) energy requirements of residential houses in five regional climates varying from cold to hot humid in Australia. Nine General Circulation Models (GCMs) under three carbon emission scenarios were applied to project the local climate. It was found that significant climate change impact on H/C energy requirements may occur within the lifespan of existing housing stock. The total H/C energy requirement of newly constructed 5 star houses is projected to vary significantly in the range of −26% to 101% by 2050 and −48% to 350% by 2100 given the A1B, A1FI and 550 ppm stabilisation emission scenarios, dependent on the existing regional climate. In terms of percentage change, houses in an H/C balanced temperate climate such as Sydney is found to be the most sensitive to climate change, potentially posing more pressures on the capacity of local energy supply. It was also found that energy efficient or high star rating houses may experience less absolute changes in energy requirement. However, they appear to experience higher percentage changes in the total H/C energy requirement. Especially in the regions with an H/C balanced temperate climate such as Sydney, the increase in the total H/C energy requirement is projected up to 120% and 530% for a 7 star house when the global temperature increases 2 °C and 5 °C respectively. The high sensitivity to global warming may need to be considered in the planning of future energy requirement for energy efficient buildings.     

Predicting the performance of an office under climate change: A study of metrics, sensitivity and zonal resolution

Climate change is expected to have significant impact on the future thermal performance of buildings. Building simulation and sensitivity analysis can be employed to predict these impacts, guiding interventions to adapt buildings to future conditions. This article explores the use of simulation to study the impact of climate change on a theoretical office building in the UK, employing a probabilistic approach. The work studies (1) appropriate performance metrics and underlying modelling assumptions, (2) sensitivity of computational results to identify key design parameters and (3) the impact of zonal resolution. The conclusions highlight the importance of assumptions in the field of electricity conversion factors, proper management of internal heat gains, and the need to use an appropriately detailed zonal resolution.     

Recent water quality trends in the Schuylkill River,Pennsylvania, USA: a preliminary assessment of the relative influences of climate,river discharge and suburban development

Climate, flow rate and land use are all known drivers of water quality in river systems, but determining the relative influences of these factors remains a significant challenge for aquatic science and management. Long-term data from the Schuylkill River at Philadelphia is assessed here in an attempt to ascertain the separate and combined influence of these major drivers on water quality in a developed watershed. Water quality measures including nutrients, conservative solutes and bacteria all elicited distinct seasonal patterns driven primarily by river discharge. Mass transport rates of sodium and chloride have increased with time, and were elevated in winter, presumably as a function of road salt deposition. A steady increase in developed land area in the watershed has occurred in recent decades, which allowed the use of time as a surrogate parameter for regional development in the construction of multiple factor linear models predicting the relative influences of precipitation, river discharge and developed land area on river water quality. Linear models predicting annually averaged water quality measures showed the effects of precipitation, discharge and developed land area to be of nearly equal importance in regulating levels of conductivity, alkalinity, sodium, and chloride in the river. Models predicting water quality variables for discrete samples demonstrated that river flow was the major determinant of daily variability in alkalinity, conductivity, hardness and calcium levels, while still resolving the highly significant influence of watershed development on water quality. Increases in solute transport in the Schuylkill River in recent decades appear to be the direct result of modern suburban development in the watershed.     

Resilience of naturally ventilated buildings to climate change: Advanced natural ventilation and hospital wards

Naturally ventilated buildings have a key role to play mitigating climate change. The predicted indoor temperatures in spaces with simple single-sided natural ventilation (SNV) are compared with those in spaces conditioned using a form of edge in, edge out advanced natural ventilation (ANV) for various UK locations. A criterion, for use in conjunction with the BSEN15251 adaptive thermal comfort method, is proposed for determining when the risk of overheating, both now and in the future, might be deemed unacceptable. The work is presented in the context building new, and refurbishing existing, healthcare buildings and in particular hospital wards. The spaces conditioned using the ANV strategy were much more resilient to increases in both internal heat gains and climatic warming than spaces with SNV. The ANV strategy used less energy, and emitted less CO₂ than conventional, mechanically ventilated (MV) alternatives. In a warming world, the ‘life-expectancy’ of passively cooled buildings can be substantially influenced by the internal heat gains. Therefore, resilience to climate change, susceptibility to internal heat gains and the impact of future heat waves, should be an integral part of any new building or building refurbishment design process.     

Assessing the risk of climate change for buildings: A comparison between multi-year and probabilistic reference year simulations

Given a changing climate, there is a need to provide data for future years so that practicing engineers can investigate the impact of climate change on particular designs and examine any risk the client might be exposed to. In addition, such files are of use to building scientists in developing generic solutions to problems such as elevated internal temperatures and poor thermal comfort. With the release of the UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) [1], and the publication of a methodology for the creation of probabilistic future reference years using the UKCP09 weather generator [2], it is possible to model future building performance. However, the collapse of the distribution of possibilities inherent in the UKCP09 method into a single reference year or a small number of reference years, potentially means the loss of most of the information about the potential range of the response of the building and of the risk occupants might be subject to. In this paper we model for the first time the internal conditions and energy use of a building with all 3000 example years produced by the UKCP09 weather generator in an attempt to study the full range of response and risk. The resultant histograms and cumulative distribution functions are then used to examine whether single reference years can be used to answer questions about response and risk under a changing climate, or whether a more probabilistic approach is unavoidable.     

Simulating the impacts of future land use and climate changes on surface water quality in the Des Plaines River watershed, Chicago Metropolitan Statistical Area, Illinois

Modeling the effects of past and current land use composition and climatic patterns on surface water quality provides valuable information for environmental and land planning. This study predicts the future impacts of urban land use and climate changes on surface water quality within Des Plaines River watershed, Illinois, between 2010 and 2030. Land Change Modeler (LCM) was used to characterize three future land use/planning scenarios. Each scenario encourages low density residential growth, normal urban growth, and commercial growth, respectively. Future climate patterns examined include the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenario (SRES) B1 and A1B groups. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was employed to estimate total suspended solids and phosphorus concentration generated at a 10 year interval. The predicted results indicate that for a large portion of the watershed, the concentration of total suspended solids (TSS) would be higher under B1 and A1B climate scenarios during late winter and early spring compared to the same period in 2010; while the summer period largely demonstrates a reverse trend. Model results further suggest that by 2020, phosphorus concentration would be higher during the summer under B1 climate scenario compared to 2010, and is expected to wane by 2030. The projected phosphorus concentrations during the late winter and early spring periods vary across climate and land use scenarios. The analysis also denotes that middle and high density residential development can reduce excess TSS concentration, while the establishment of dense commercial and industrial development might help ameliorate high phosphorus levels. The combined land use and climate change analysis revealed land use development schemes that can be adopted to mitigate potential future water quality impairment. This research provides important insights into possible adverse consequences on surface water quality and resources under certain climate change and land use scenarios.     

Mapping the impact of climate change on surface recession of carbonate buildings in Europe

Climate change is currently attracting interest at both research and policy levels. However, it is usually explored in terms of its effect on agriculture, water, industry, energy, transport and health and as yet has been insufficiently addressed as a factor threatening cultural heritage. Among the climate parameters critical to heritage conservation and expected to change in the future, precipitation plays an important role in surface recession of stone. The Lipfert function has been taken under consideration to quantify the annual surface recession of carbonate stone, due to the effects of clean rain, acid rain and dry deposition of pollutants. The present paper provides Europe-wide maps showing quantitative predictions of surface recession on carbonate stones for the 21st century, combining a modified Lipfert function with output from the Hadley global climate model. Chemical dissolution of carbonate stones, via the karst effect, will increase with future CO₂ concentrations, and will come to dominate over sulfur deposition and acid rain effects on monuments and buildings in both urban and rural areas. During the present century the rainfall contribution to surface recession is likely to have a small effect, while the increase in atmospheric CO₂ concentration is shown to be the main factor in increasing weathering via the karst effect.