Navigating the global carbon market: An analysis of the CDM's value chain and prevalent business models

From a slow start, the clean development mechanism (CDM) market has recently experienced enormous growth. However, the CDM market has been increasingly criticised, resulting in a lively debate about how to reform, complement, or replace it. In order to increase transparency and assist policy-makers in better understanding the current market, we depart from the traditional project-level perspective on CDM and analyse commercial activities by utilising data from UNEP Risoe's CDM Bazaar. To this end, we first establish a seven-step value chain by conducting a factor analysis on the commercial activities indicated in the Bazaar and, second, identify nine prevalent business models with a cluster analysis of all 495 participating organisations. Based on these analyses, we discuss potential impacts on the value chain of different policy scenarios that rely on carbon credits as incentive. We find that the importance of specific regulatory CDM know-how and general business activities such as finance varies strongly with the different policy scenarios. Our analysis serves to sensitise policy-makers and business about implications of different regulatory designs.     

Supply chain optimization of residual forestry biomass for bioenergy production: The case study of Portugal

Within a large set of renewable energies being explored to tackle energy sourcing problems, bioenergy can represent an attractive solution if effectively managed. The supply chain design supported by mathematical programming can be used as a decision support tool to the successful bioenergy production systems establishment. This strategic decision problem is addressed in this paper where we intent to study the design of the residual forestry biomass to bioelectricity production in the Portuguese context. In order to contribute to attain better solutions a mixed integer linear programming (MILP) model is developed and applied in order to optimize the design and planning of the bioenergy supply chain. While minimizing the total supply chain cost the production energy facilities capacity and location are defined. The model also includes the optimal selection of biomass amounts and sources, the transportation modes selection, and links that must be established for biomass transportation and products delivers to markets. Results illustrate the positive contribution of the mathematical programming approach to achieve viable economic solutions. Sensitivity analysis on the most uncertain parameters was performed: biomass availability, transportation costs, fixed operating costs and investment costs.     

Sustainability trade-offs in bioenergy development in the Philippines: An application of conjoint analysis

Sustainability assessments of bioenergy production are essential because it can have both positive and negative impacts on society. Human preferences that influence trade-off decisions on the relevant determinants and indicators of sustainability should be taken into account in these assessments. In this paper, we conducted a survey with five groups of respondents including government officials and employees, academic and research professionals, private company managers and workers, farm owners and workers, and others (e.g. students, residents, etc.) to assess their trade-off decisions on bioenergy development in the Philippines. The analyses of the survey results reveal that sustainability of bioenergy production will depend on the choice of biomass feedstock and these choices depend on people's perceptions. Heterogeneous perceptions among the different groups of respondents on the appropriate bioenergy feedstock to achieve economic, social and ecological sustainability suggest that sustainability of bioenergy is not a generic concept. The use of aggregate indices for sustainability assessments that ignore these perceptions on bioenergy production can thus be very misleading. The preference weights from conjoint analysis, which measure human preferences on different determinants and indicators of economic, social and ecological sustainability, can help improve sustainability assessments.     

Supply chain cost analysis of long-distance transportation of energy wood in Finland

The increasing use of bioenergy has resulted in a growing demand for long-distance transportation of energy wood. For both biofuels and traditional forest products, the importance of energy efficiency and rail use is growing. A GIS-based model for energy wood supply chains was created and used to simulate the costs for several supply chains in a study area in eastern Finland. Cost curves of ten supply chains for logging residues and full trees based on roadside, terminal and end-facility chipping were analyzed. The average procurement costs from forest to roadside storage were included. Railway transportation was compared to the most commonly used truck transportation options in long-distance transport. The potential for the development of supply chains was analyzed using a sensitivity analysis of 11 modified supply chain scenarios.For distances shorter than 60 km, truck transportation of loose residues and end-facility comminution was the most cost-competitive chain. Over longer distances, roadside chipping with chip truck transportation was the most cost-efficient option. When the transportation distance went from 135 to 165 km, depending on the fuel source, train-based transportation offered the lowest costs. The most cost-competitive alternative for long-distance transport included a combination of roadside chipping, truck transportation to the terminal and train transportation to the plant. Due to the low payload, the energy wood bundle chain with train transportation was not cost-competitive. Reduction of maximum truck weight increased the relative competitiveness of loose residue chains and train-based transportation, while reduction of fuel moisture increased competitiveness, especially of chip trucks.     

Barriers and incentives to the production of bioethanol from cereal straw: A farm business perspective

The EU renewable energy directive stipulates a requirement for 10% of transport fuels to be derived from renewable sources by 2020. Second generation biofuels offer potential to contribute towards this target with cereal straw representing a potentially large feedstock source. From an on-farm survey of 240 arable farmers, timeliness of crop establishment and benefits of nutrient retention from straw incorporation were cited as reasons for straw incorporation. However, two-thirds (one-third) of farmers would supply wheat (barley) straw for bioenergy. The most popular contract length and continuous length of straw supply was either 1 or 3 years. Contracts stipulating a fixed area of straw supply for a fixed price were the most frequently cited preferences, with £50 t⁻¹ the most frequently cited minimum contract price that farmers would find acceptable. Arable farmers in England would be willing to sell 2.52 Mt of cereal straw for bioenergy purposes nationally and 1.65 Mt in the main cereal growing areas of Eastern England. Cereal straw would be diverted from current markets or on-farm uses and from straw currently incorporated into soil. Policy interventions may be required to incentivise farmers to engage in this market, but food and fuel policies must increasingly be integrated to meet societal goals.     

Economic analysis of sector coupling business models: Application on green hydrogen use cases

Sector coupling will play a key role in the future energy system to realise greenhouse gas emission reductions. A major factor will be green hydrogen based on renewable energies to defossilise consumption sectors. Related business models of power to gas are not yet implemented on the market. However, given the urgency of the change, this is essential.This paper investigates hydrogen business models under current market conditions of high power prices, no existing market for green hydrogen and the given regulatory framework with no levies for green hydrogen production in the German market. For this purpose, an open-source business model evaluation tool for sector coupling, which enables a simple and generic evaluation of sector coupling business models including production and possible transportation infrastructure, is developed and applied. Furthermore, the impact of changes of the input parameters like power prices and the influence of regulatory changes on profitability are assessed.The results show that X-to-power business cases can be already profitable due to high power prices on the wholesale market. However, power-to-X business models like hydrogen production still have negative net present values and the net present value is worsened when infrastructure for hydrogen transportation is considered. Key parameters for the negative result are investment costs and low hydrogen prices. Nevertheless, it must be considered that higher hydrogen prices have a negative impact on the X-to-power business model. To allow for profitable business cases, the market conditions need to be adjusted to ensure sufficiently high prices for green hydrogen. Furthermore, subsidies on investment or operational and maintenance costs can support the integration of power-to-X into the market. Transportation infrastructure has a significant impact on profitability. Given these facts, it is necessary to create the required framework conditions to ensure the realisation of sector coupling.     

Competition between biomass and food production in the presence of energy policies: a partial equilibrium analysis

Bioenergy has several advantages over fossil fuels. For example, it delivers energy at low net CO₂ emission levels and contributes to sustaining future energy supplies. The concern, however, is that an increase in biomass plantations will reduce the land available for agricultural production. The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of taxing conventional electricity production or carbon use in combination with subsidizing biomass or bioelectricity production on the production of biomass and agricultural commodities and on the share of bioelectricity in total electricity production. We develop a partial equilibrium model to illustrate some of the potential impacts of these policies on greenhouse gas emissions, land reallocation and food and electricity prices. As a case study, we use data for Poland, which has a large potential for biomass production. Results show that combining a conventional electricity tax of 10% with a 25% subsidy on bioelectricity production increases the share of bioelectricity to 7.5%. Under this policy regime, biomass as well as agricultural production increase. A carbon tax that gives equal net tax yields, has better environmental results, however, at higher welfare costs and resulting in 1% to 4% reduction of agricultural production.     

Field trial results of straw yield with different harvesting methods,and modelled effects on soil organic carbon. A case study from Southern Finland

We estimated the effects of different cutting heights and harvesting strategies on the amounts of harvestable residue biomasses and allocation of residue biomasses in the soil. A case study on regional straw biomass resources was performed with the different crops cultivated in Varsinais-Suomi (Southern Finland) at present (averages of 2003–2012) and in the predicted future warmer climate (scenario RCP 4.5, year 2055). We also estimated, with the help of the Yasso07 model, the effects of different residue incorporation intensities on soil organic carbon (SOC) at present and in the future warmer climate. The results suggested that cutting height has a significant impact on the amount of straw biomass incorporated in the soil and subsequent change in SOC. The impact depended on crop species and variety. When straw is collected and used e.g. in energy production, harvesting practices leaving greater stubble heights could help to maintain soil fertility. The Yasso07 model suggests that in the predicted future warmer conditions, more straw could be collected without decreasing SOC, as mineralization of SOC in the warmer climate is expected to increase less than organic carbon amendments caused by higher crop and root biomasses. Collection and usage of straw as a renewable energy source always decreases greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in comparison to fossil fuels. However, collecting straw every second year instead of every year, even with higher stubble, would decrease field traffic and spare the soil from compaction and the farmer from extra work, while still significantly decreasing GHG emissions.     

Economic opportunities resulting from a global deployment of concentrated solar power (CSP) technologies—The example of German technology providers

Several energy scenario studies consider concentrated solar power (CSP) plants as an important technology option to reduce the world’s CO₂ emissions to a level required for not letting the global average temperature exceed a threshold of 2–2.4 °C. A global ramp up of CSP technologies offers great economic opportunities for technology providers as CSP technologies include highly specialised components. This paper analyses possible value creation effects resulting from a global deployment of CSP until 2050 as projected in scenarios of the International Energy Agency (IEA) and Greenpeace International. The analysis focuses on the economic opportunities of German technology providers since companies such as Schott Solar, Flabeg or Solar Millennium are among the leading suppliers of CSP technologies on the global market.     

Design of a future hydrogen supply chain: A multi period model for Turkey

There is no doubt that energy will have one of highest priorities in agendas of strategic plans of countries. Since fossil fuels are running out and carbon emissions are more important than ever, researchers seek alternative clean and efficient energy sources. One of the best alternatives is hydrogen. The systems in which hydrogen flows from its production to end users are called hydrogen supply chains (HSC). Since hydrogen is not in active use, its HSC infrastructure is not complete and should be planned very carefully. We study the design of HSC of Turkey to meet the hydrogen demand of the period between 2021 and 2050. Our aim is to minimize total cost of the HSC while meeting the demand of the transportation sector. We address the problem by using a mixed integer programming (MIP) model and derive several insights for the future HSC. The results show that while decentralization (being able to fulfill the demand from local production facilities) is 12% in the first period, this rate raises up to 48% by the end of the planning horizon. Analysis also reveal that almost all grids do not produce and import hydrogen simultaneously, i.e., they either produce or import hydrogen. The results are robust in the sense that solutions of different optimality gaps have minor differences in terms of established facilities.     

Design and operation of a future hydrogen supply chain: Multi-period model

Introducing hydrogen as the fuel of the future necessitates a comprehensive, widespread supply chain network that is capable of producing, distributing, storing, and dispensing hydrogen to end users. Most of the early attempts to design and model the future hydrogen supply chain (HSC) were either limited to examining an individual component of the supply chain or focused on a predetermined hydrogen pathway. In these studies, a simulation-based approach has commonly been adopted rather than using a mathematical programming-based approach. The work presented here is an extension of an early attempt to design and operate a deterministic, steady-state HSC network using a mathematical modelling approach. In this paper, however, the model is developed to consider the availability of energy sources (i.e. raw materials) and their logistics, as well as the variation of hydrogen demand over a long-term planning horizon leading to phased infrastructure development. The proposed model is formulated as a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) and solved via a commercial software tool, GAMS. The results show that the optimal design of the future HSC network of Great Britain (GB) starts with small-size plant together with using the hydrogen currently produced by chemical processing plants. As demand grows, more plants of different sizes should be built to meet the demand. The hydrogen produced will be transported using liquid hydrogen trucks and stored in different sizes of storage facilities.     

Progress in the production of hydrogen energy from food waste: A bibliometric analysis

The exponential increase in food waste generation has prompted the scientific community to convert it into value-added resources. Hydrogen energy provides a sustainable option to fossil fuels due to its purity, high energy content, with no emissions other than water vapor. Combining the two aspects, a bibliometric analysis was performed for the conversion of food waste to hydrogen energy to evaluate the research trends based on literature in the Scopus database over the last two decades. The cluster analysis supported with the visualization tool aided in conducting a systematic study revealing growing themes and hot issues. The results showed a growing interest in the conversion of food waste to hydrogen energy research with the number of publications increasing by nearly 50 times in the last two decades. Comprehensive journals like the International Journal of Hydrogen Energy were most popular in publishing articles contributing to almost 30% in the research area. The country-wise analysis revealed that China accounted for more than 25% of the articles published followed by South Korea and India while the USA dominated in terms of the number of citations. Lastly, keyword cluster analysis revealed five major research hotspots for future discussion. The study concludes that further perspectives on fuel delivery, environmental impacts, and social acceptance could aid in positive developments in the biohydrogen energy industry.     

Retrospective and prospective of the hydrogen supply chain: A longitudinal techno-historical analysis

The objective of this study was to investigate the evolution of hydrogen research and its international scientific collaboration network. From the Scopus database, 58,006 relevant articles, published from 1935 until mid-2018, were retrieved. To review this massive volume of publication records, we took a scientometric network analysis approach and investigated the social network of the publication contents based on keywords co-occurrence as well as international collaboration ties.An interesting observation is that despite publications on hydrogen occurring since 1935, the growth of this research field ignited with the Kyoto Protocol of 1997. The publication profile reveals that more than 93% of the existing records have been published over the last two decades. More recently, the accelerated growth of renewables has further motivated hydrogen research with almost 36,000 academic records having been indexed from 2010 till mid-2018. This accounts for ~62% of the total historical publications on hydrogen. The conventional hydrogen production pathway is fossil fuel-based, involving fossil fuel reforming for synthesis gas generation. The keyword analysis also shows a paradigm shift in hydrogen generation to renewables. While all components of hydrogen supply chain research are now growing, the topic areas of biohydrogen and photocatalysis seem to be growing the fastest.Analysis of international collaboration networks also reveals a strong correlation between the increase of collaboration ties on hydrogen research and the publications. Until the 1970s, only 25 countries had collaborated, while this has reached 108 countries as of 2018, with over 17,500 collaboration ties. The collaborations have also evolved into a substantially more integrated network, with a few strong clusters involving China, the United States, Germany, and Japan. The longitudinal network evolution maps also reveal a shift, over the last two decades, from US-Europe centred technology development-interaction to a world in which Asian economies play substantial roles.     

Large-scale production and transport of hydrogen from Norway to Europe and Japan: Value chain analysis and comparison of liquid hydrogen and ammonia as energy carriers

Low-carbon hydrogen is considered as one of the key measures to decarbonise continental Europe and Japan. Northern Norway has abundant renewable energy and natural gas resources which can be converted to low-carbon hydrogen. However, Norway is located relatively far away from these markets and finding efficient ways to transport this hydrogen to the end-user is critical. In this study, liquefied hydrogen (LH₂) and ammonia (NH₃), as H₂-based energy carriers, are analysed and compared with respect to energy efficiency, CO₂ footprint and cost. It is shown that the LH₂ chain is more energy efficient and has a smaller CO₂ footprint (20 and 23 kg-CO₂/MWh_th for Europe and Japan, respectively) than the NH₃ chain (76 and 122 kg-CO₂/MWh_th). Furthermore, the study finds the levelized cost of hydrogen delivered to Rotterdam to be lower for LH₂ (5.0 EUR/kg-H₂) compared to NH₃ (5.9 EUR/kg-H₂), while the hydrogen costs of the two chains for transport to Japan are in a similar range (about 7 EUR/kg-H₂). It is also shown that under optimistic assumptions, the costs associated with the LH₂ chain (3.2 EUR/kg-H₂) are close to meeting the 2030 hydrogen cost target of Japan (2.5 EUR/kg-H₂).     

The causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in a Gaming and Tourism Center: The case of Macao SAR, the People’s Republic of China

A number of Asian cities decided to establish gaming and resort facilities in order to capitalize on the growing number of gamblers and their family members in Asia. In doing so, they expect to sustain economic growth but, on the other hand, will consume a considerable amount of energy. Nevertheless, the causal relationship between economic growth and electricity consumption in this type of service-oriented territories has never been investigated. Using the historical data obtained from the Government of Macao SAR, we found that electricity consumption and economic growth in terms of gross domestic product are co-integrated for the period of 1999 Quarter 1-2008 Quarter 4. Moreover, vector error correction (VEC) models indicated a lack of short-run relationships but showed that there was a long-run equilibrium relationship between electricity consumption and gross domestic product. The accuracy of VEC models was assessed by using the mean squared error and the mean absolute error. The error analysis shows that VEC models reproduced time series of gross domestic product and electricity consumption in difference form accurately.     

Thermolysis of waste plastics to liquid fuel: A suitable method for plastic waste management and manufacture of value added products—A world prospective

The present rate of economic growth is unsustainable without saving of fossil energy like crude oil, natural gas or coal. Thus mankind has to rely on the alternate/renewable energy sources like biomass, hydropower, geothermal energy, wind energy, solar energy, nuclear energy, etc. On the other hand, suitable waste management strategy is another important aspect of sustainable development. The growth of welfare levels in modern society during the past decades has brought about a huge increase in the production of all kinds of commodities, which indirectly generate waste. Plastics have been one of the materials with the fastest growth because of their wide range of applications due to versatility and relatively low cost. Since the duration of life of plastic products is relatively small, there is a vast plastics waste stream that reaches each year to the final recipients creating a serious environmental problem. Again, because disposal of post consumer plastics is increasingly being constrained by legislation and escalating costs, there is considerable demand for alternatives to disposal or land filling. Advanced research in the field of green chemistry could yield biodegradable/green polymers but is too limited at this point of time to substitute the non-biodegradable plastics in different applications. Once standards are developed for degradable plastics they can be used to evaluate the specific formulations of materials which will find best application in this state as regards their performance and use characteristics. Among the alternatives available are source reduction, reuse, recycling, and recovery of the inherent energy value through waste-to-energy incineration and processed fuel applications. Production of liquid fuel would be a better alternative as the calorific value of the plastics is comparable to that of fuels, around 40 MJ/kg. Each of these options potentially reduces waste and conserves natural resources. Plastics recycling, continues to progress with a wide range of old and new technologies. Many research projects have been undertaken on chemical recycling of waste plastics to fuel and monomer. This is also reflected by a number of pilot, demonstration, and commercial plants processing various types of plastic wastes in Germany, Japan, USA, India, and elsewhere. Further investigations are required to enhance the generation of value added products (fuel) with low investments without affecting the environment. The paper reviews the available literature in this field of active research and identifies the gaps that need further attention.     

Hierarchical microarchitectures of AgGa1−xInxS2: Long chain alcohol assisted synthesis,band gap tailoring and photocatalytic activities of hydrogen generation

An enhanced visible-light-driven photocatalyst, AgGa_1−xIn_xS₂, was prepared by a facile long chain alcohol assisted hydrothermal route. Phase structures, morphologies, optical properties, energy level and specific surface areas of the products were characterized by X-ray diffraction, scanning electron microscope, UV–vis spectra and BET analysis. The obtained products show unique hierarchical microarchitectures which were fabricated by micro-sphere and nano-sheets. The introducing of long chain alcohol (pentanol and heptanol) was investigated to be crucial for the forming of hierarchical microarchitectures. On the other hand, the band gap energy of AgGa_1−xIn_xS₂ (x = 0–1) estimated from the onset of absorption edge was found to be reduced from 2.71 eV (x = 0) to 1.93 eV (x = 1) by indium substitution. The photocatalytic activity for hydrogen evolution was investigated under visible light irradiation (λ > 400 nm). The rate of hydrogen evolution reached up to 813 μmol/h when the amount of In (x) was 0.1 and the roles of long chain alcohol and Ga/In were also carefully investigated.     

Economic analysis of energy production from coal/biomass upgrading; Part 1: Hydrogen production

Hydrogen production by steam-gasification is an interesting method compared to other common methods which has a wide range of applications including Proton Exchange Membrane (PEM) fuel cells and gas engines. The current research was aimed to provide a detailed economic study on gasification of biomass and coal for syngas and hydrogen production using the Aspen Plus software. The effect of plant size on hydrogen selling price was evaluated from biomass, coal, and biomass-coal gasification. With the plant size increasing from 200 tonnes/day to 400 tonnes/day, the hydrogen selling price decreased sharply from 11.5 to 9.1 $/m³ for biomass, from 10.4 to 8.2 $/m³ for coal, and from 10.1 to 7.7 $/m³ which means that the particle size has a key role in the process, and operation in larger plants is more affordable.     

Design of a sustainable and reliable hydrogen supply chain network under mixed uncertainties: A case study

In the recent decade, the design of green hydrogen supply chains has been highlighted by researchers. Although, nowadays, responsiveness and social responsibility of networks could also be regarded as important measures that could attract more consumers to use hydrogen. Accordingly, this paper aims to improve the reliability and social responsibility of a hydrogen supply chain along with its economic and environmental aspects. To ensure the network's responsiveness, a new objective function is extended that maximizes the reliability of products' delivery. Also, a novel reliability approach is developed to immune the network against disruptions. As a new sustainability indicator, social factors are considered in the design of the hydrogen supply chain. Finally, a mixed possibilistic flexible programming method is proposed to assure the outputs' reliability. The results illustrate that by 28.4% enhancement in cost objective, the value of environmental, social, and reliability objectives are desirably improved 39.2%, 45.6%, and 24.1%, respectively.