基于Agent建模技术的结构化社会仿真系统设计

近年来,基于Agent建模（Agent-based modeling,ABM）的理论和技术得到长足的发展。利用Agent建模技术对人类社会进行群集行为的模拟也越来越受到学术界的关注,发展迅速。本文阐述Agent建模技术在建立结构化社会系统时的一般方法;分析该建模方法的主要研究内容;利用本文阐述的方法开发一套完整的结构化社会仿真系统平台,并在该平台上对社会群落模块聚集效应进行有效的验证;最后讨论基于Agent建模技术的结构化社会仿真系统的应用前景和面临的挑战。     

A ‘context-aware’ and agent-centric perspective for the alignment between individuals and organizations

The enterprise modeling field aims at representing organizations from several, inter-related perspectives. A number of enterprise modeling frameworks have been developed providing models, methods and tools that enable to communicate the structure and processes of organizations. These frameworks have been used both for systems development and organizational analysis ends, where the latter mainly focuses process (re)design efforts. We argue that enterprise modeling frameworks can be used for other kinds of organizational analysis. In particular, they can be used to capture and model work practices, human multitasking at work, and to compare models describing pre-defined behavior with actual execution.     

An overview of the model integration process: From pre-integration assessment to testing

Integration of models requires linking models which can be developed using different tools, methodologies, and assumptions. We performed a literature review with the aim of improving our understanding of model integration process, and also presenting better strategies for building integrated modeling systems. We identified five different phases to characterize integration process: pre-integration assessment, preparation of models for integration, orchestration of models during simulation, data interoperability, and testing. Commonly, there is little reuse of existing frameworks beyond the development teams and not much sharing of science components across frameworks. We believe this must change to enable researchers and assessors to form complex workflows that leverage the current environmental science available. In this paper, we characterize the model integration process and compare integration practices of different groups. We highlight key strategies, features, standards, and practices that can be employed by developers to increase reuse and interoperability of science software components and systems.     

Agent-based and analytical modeling to evaluate the effectiveness of greenbelts

We present several models of residential development at the rural–urban fringe to evaluate the effectiveness of a greenbelt located beside a developed area, for delaying development outside the greenbelt. First, we develop a mathematical model, under two assumptions about the distributions of service centers, that represents the trade-off between greenbelt placement and width, their effects on the rate of development beyond the greenbelt, and how these interact with spatial patterns of aesthetic quality and the locations of services. Next, we present three agent-based models (ABMs) that include agents with the potential for heterogeneous preferences and a landscape with the potential for heterogeneous attributes. Results from experiments run with a one-dimensional ABM agree with the starkest of the results from the mathematical model, strengthening the support for both models. Further, we present two different two-dimensional ABMs and conduct a series of experiments to supplement our mathematical analysis. These include examining the effects of heterogeneous agent preferences, multiple landscape patterns, incomplete or imperfect information available to agents, and a positive aesthetic quality impact of the greenbelt on neighboring locations. These results suggest how width and location of the greenbelt could help determine the effectiveness of greenbelts for slowing sprawl, but that these relationships are sensitive to the patterns of landscape aesthetic quality and assumptions about service center locations.     

An extensible simulation environment and movement metrics for testing walking behavior in agent-based models

Human movement is a significant ingredient of many social, environmental, and technical systems, yet the importance of movement is often discounted in considering systems’ complexity. Movement is commonly abstracted in agent-based modeling (which is perhaps the methodological vehicle for modeling complex systems), despite the influence of movement upon information exchange and adaptation in a system. In particular, agent-based models of urban pedestrians often treat movement in proxy form at the expense of faithfully treating movement behavior with realistic agency. There exists little consensus about which method is appropriate for representing movement in agent-based schemes. In this paper, we examine popularly-used methods to drive movement in agent-based models, first by introducing a methodology that can flexibly handle many representations of movement at many different scales and second, introducing a suite of tools to benchmark agent movement between models and against real-world trajectory data. We find that most popular movement schemes do a relatively poor job of representing movement, but that some schemes may well be “good enough” for some applications. We also discuss potential avenues for improving the representation of movement in agent-based frameworks.     

基于分布式异构仿真的协同建模框架研究

复杂大系统的建模与仿真涉及到多个领域的人员协同开发,各类人员采用本领域成熟的建模方法和工具构建模型,这些模型具备粒度精细、置信度较高的特点,但同时也产生了模型异构的问题.本文针对复杂系统的大规模仿真应用探讨了异构模型开发和集成的思路,对如何使这些异构模型协同参与仿真的问题进行了深入研究,分析和归纳了当前已有的协同建模仿真环境DEVS/HLA、DEVS总线以及CDM的工作原理和关键技术,提出了以分布式异构模型为基础的协同建模框架的功能描述.     

A spatially explicit agent-based modeling approach for the spread of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis disease in central Iran,Isfahan

Cutaneous Leishmaniasis (CL) is an endemic vector-borne disease in the Middle East and a worldwide public health problem. The spread of CL is highly associated with the socio-ecological interactions of vectors, hosts and the environment. The heterogeneity of these interactions has hindered CL modeling for healthcare preventive measures in endemic areas. In this study, an agent-based model (ABM) is developed to simulate the dynamics of CL spread based on a Geographic Automata System (GAS). A Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) approach together with Bayesian modeling has been applied in the ABM to explore the spread of CL. The model is then adapted locally for Isfahan Province, an endemic area in central Iran. The results from the model indicate that desertification areas are the main origin of CL, and riverside population centers have the potential to host more sand fly exposures and should receive more preventive measures from healthcare authorities. The results also show that healthcare service accessibility prevented exposures from becoming infected and areas with new inhabitants experienced more infections from same amount of sand fly exposures.     

Agent-based modeling of energy technology adoption: Empirical integration of social,behavioral, economic,and environmental factors

Agent-based modeling (ABM) techniques for studying human-technical systems face two important challenges. First, agent behavioral rules are often ad hoc, making it difficult to assess the implications of these models within the larger theoretical context. Second, the lack of relevant empirical data precludes many models from being appropriately initialized and validated, limiting the value of such models for exploring emergent properties or for policy evaluation. To address these issues, in this paper we present a theoretically-based and empirically-driven agent-based model of technology adoption, with an application to residential solar photovoltaic (PV). Using household-level resolution for demographic, attitudinal, social network, and environmental variables, the integrated ABM framework we develop is applied to real-world data covering 2004–2013 for a residential solar PV program at the city scale. Two applications of the model focusing on rebate program design are also presented.     

TEFL:一种文本式特征建模语言

特征模型已经成为软件产品线工程中共性/可变性建模的事实标准.现有基于特征图的建模工具由于在模型表达能力、严谨的形式化语义等方面的不足限制了其在工业界的应用.为了消除这些建模中的缺陷,为基于特征的产品线开发提供一个坚实的支撑环境,提出文本式特征建模语言TEFL,介绍其具体语法、抽象语法,以及形式化语义;开发一个基于Eclipse的语言编辑器原型;给出了面向XML和Java语言应用转化方法和工具;分析了与现有文本式建模技术相比所具有的优势与不足,并指出在特征建模及其工具技术方面的进一步的工作方向.     

基于特征的时空数据模型：研究进展与问题探讨

首先分析了时空数据模型的不同层次,指出了当前时空数据模型存在的主要问题,认为目前的时空数据模型缺少对地理现象的显式定义和基础关系描述,不能在语义层次上实现数据共享,传统的基于专题地理分层的空间数据表达思想,和单一图层内以矢量或栅格数据结构基本单元作为地理实体或现象基本建模单元的表达方式,对于复杂地理实体或现象的描述及地理过程分布存在严重不足,提出发展基于特征的时空数据模型是新一代地理信息系统的核心所在;讨论了基于特征的概念模型要素以相互关系,提出了基于特征的时空数据模型所面临的关键技术。     

A conceptual modeling framework for discrete event simulation using hierarchical control structures

Conceptual Modeling (CM) is a fundamental step in a simulation project. Nevertheless, it is only recently that structured approaches towards the definition and formulation of conceptual models have gained importance in the Discrete Event Simulation (DES) community. As a consequence, frameworks and guidelines for applying CM to DES have emerged and discussion of CM for DES is increasing. However, both the organization of model-components and the identification of behavior and system control from standard CM approaches have shortcomings that limit CM’s applicability to DES. Therefore, we discuss the different aspects of previous CM frameworks and identify their limitations. Further, we present the Hierarchical Control Conceptual Modeling framework that pays more attention to the identification of a models’ system behavior, control policies and dispatching routines and their structured representation within a conceptual model. The framework guides the user step-by-step through the modeling process and is illustrated by a worked example.     

面向问题的软件开发协同建模工具的研究与实现

建模软件是辅助需求工程师分析的工具,在需求设计阶段必不可少。目前,很少有需求建模工具可以跨平台运行,支持在线多用户协同以及验证需求模型正确性和完整性等功能。鉴于问题框架方法在需求工程领域获得了较大关注,文中开发了一款用户体验较好、兼容多平台的计算机辅助问题框架建模软件。本研究解决了自动化校验问题图的正确性和完整性以及复杂问题图拆分等难题,实现了用户登录、云端数据库存储设计和多人协同建模和验证,从而构建了一个在线需求建模、共享和验证的平台。     

Agent-based simulation of electricity markets: a survey of tools

Agent-based simulation has been a popular technique in modeling and analyzing electricity markets in recent years. The main objective of this paper is to study existing agent-based simulation packages for electricity markets. We first provide an overview of electricity markets and briefly introduce the agent-based simulation technique. We then investigate several general-purpose agent-based simulation tools. Next, we review four popular agent-based simulation packages developed for electricity markets and several agent-based simulation models reported in the literature. We compare all the reviewed packages and models and identify their common features and design issues. Based on the study, we describe an agent-based simulation framework for electricity markets to facilitate the development of future models for electricity markets.     

A procedure for building product models

The application of product modeling in manufacturing companies raises the important question of how to model product knowledge in a comprehensible and efficient way. An important challenge is to qualify engineers to model and specify IT-systems (product models) to support their specification activities. A basic assumption is that engineers have to take the responsibility for building product models to be used in their domain. To do that they must be able to carry out the modeling task on their own without any need for support from computer science experts. This paper presents a set of simple, easily adaptable concepts and methods for modeling product knowledge. The concepts and methods are based on well-defined concepts and methods from data modeling (object oriented analysis) and domain modeling (product modeling). The concepts are general and can be used for modeling all types of specifications in the different phases in the product life cycle. The modeling techniques presented have been tested in different companies and have proved to work.     

Towards the Technology Neutral Modeling of Management Components

This paper outlines an Architectural Model and accompanying modeling notation that addresses on the need to model management component interfaces and their business contexts in a technology neutral manner in order to promote convergence on stable, reusable solutions. The approach combines existing modeling concepts related to component-based and model-driven software development from TINA-C, OMG, DMTF and TM Forum in order to provide guidance on the development of models that need to be exchanged between organizations involved in the development of software components and the management systems in which they are used. The Architectural Model is assessed through application to the management a specific set of e-business support services.     

元建模技术研究进展

随着UML(unified modeling language)与MDA(model driven architecture)的兴起和流行,模型已经成为软件开发的核心制品,而模型重要性的提升使得建模语言以及定义建模语言的元模型逐渐成为软件开发中的一个核心要素.软件开发往往涉及多个领域,而不同的领域往往需要不同的建模语言及其建模工具.但是,手工地为不同的建模语言开发建模工具代价高昂.元建模技术是解决这个问题的方法之一,通过元建模,可以根据领域需要定制合适的元模型以定义领域建模语言,进而自动生成支持该建模语言的建模工具.大量的工程实践表明,与领域建模以及MDA相结合,元建模可以大幅度地提高软件开发效率,基于元建模的MDA比基于通用建模语言的MDA更具潜力.在最近的几年中,元建模及其相关技术发展迅猛,不但在技术上取得了长足的进步,而且在产业界也开始出现大规模的商业应用.总结了元建模的现有研究成果,分析和比较了现有元建模工具,探讨了元建模的可能发展方向.对元建模中存在的问题进行分析,并指出了可能的解决途径.     

A software engineering perspective on environmental modeling framework design: The Object Modeling System

The environmental modeling community has historically been concerned with the proliferation of models and the effort associated with collective model development tasks (e.g., code generation, data transformation, etc.). Environmental modeling frameworks (EMFs) have been developed to address this problem, but much work remains before EMFs are adopted as mainstream modeling tools. Environmental model development requires both scientific understanding of environmental phenomena and software developer proficiency. EMFs support the modeling process through streamlining model code development, allowing seamless access to data, and supporting data analysis and visualization. EMFs also support aggregation of model components into functional units, component interaction and communication, temporal-spatial stepping, scaling of spatial data, multi-threading/multi-processor support, and cross-language interoperability. Some EMFs additionally focus on high-performance computing and are tailored for particular modeling domains such as ecosystem, socio-economic, or climate change research. The Object Modeling System Version 3 (OMS3) EMF employs new advances in software framework design to better support the environmental model development process. This paper discusses key EMF design goals/constraints and addresses software engineering aspects that have made OMS3 framework development efficacious and its application practical, as demonstrated by leveraging software engineering efforts outside of the modeling community and lessons learned from over a decade of EMF development. Software engineering approaches employed in OMS3 are highlighted including a non-invasive lightweight framework design supporting component-based model development, use of implicit parallelism in system design, use of domain specific language design patterns, and cloud-based support for computational scalability. The key advancements in EMF design presented herein may be applicable and beneficial for other EMF developers seeking to better support environmental model development through improved framework design.     

Improving the quality of conceptual modeling using cognitive mapping techniques

Conceptual modeling involves the understanding and communication between system analysts and end-users. Many factors may affect the quality of conceptual modeling processes as well as the models per se. Human cognition plays a pivotal role in understanding these factors and cognitive mapping techniques are effective tools to elicit and represent human cognition. In this paper, we look at the use of cognitive mapping techniques to improve the quality of conceptual modeling. We review frameworks on quality in conceptual modeling and examine the role of human cognition in conceptual modeling. The paper also discusses how human cognition is related to quality in conceptual modeling, the various cognitive mapping techniques, and how these cognitive mapping techniques can be used in conceptual modeling. Through a case study, the paper describes ways of incorporating cognitive mapping techniques to a popular systems development methodology—Soft Systems Methodology—to improve the quality of conceptual modeling.     

A BIM-based simulation framework for fire safety management and investigation of the critical factors affecting human evacuation performance

Fire hazards are a big threat to human life and property safety. The U.S. fire statistics reveal that, in 2017 alone, 1,319,500 fires caused 3400 deaths and 14,670 injuries, which resulted in a loss of $23 billion [1]. Effective evacuation planning in densely occupied buildings should be primarily put in place if both the number of injuries/fatalities and the level of property loss are to be minimized. However, it is not realistic, and is unethical to study human evacuation performance under a burning building. For this reason, computational tools tend to be the best approach for simulating fire growth as well as human response to fire hazards. This study aims to develop a BIM-based simulation framework that implements the Fire Dynamic Simulator (FDS) and agent-based modeling (ABM) for simulating fire growth and evacuation performance for different building layout scenarios. An experimental implementation is conducted to validate the proposed framework, which verified the benefits of (1) using BIM to offer a platform for conducting simulation design and visualizing the simulation results of (a) hazardous fire zones and (b) effective escape routes; (2) simulating fire growth using the FDS tool; (3) developing an agent-based model that accounts for the critical factors affecting evacuation performance; and (4) applying a statistical analysis for investigating the effects of influential parameters from the proposed model. As a result, the simulation outputs can be used to optimize the building design and to investigate the influential factors on human evacuation efficiency. The proposed framework contributes to building fire safety management by enabling to minimize both injuries/fatalities and property loss.     

The rocky road to extended simulation frameworks covering uncertainty,inversion, optimization and control

In the past decades, simulation frameworks have greatly increased in complexity, due to coupling of models from various disciplines into so-called integrated models. Recently, the combination with tools for uncertainty quantification, inverse modelling, optimization and control started a development towards what we call extended simulation frameworks. While there is an ongoing discussion on quality assurance and reproducibility for simulation frameworks, we have not observed a similar discussion for the extended case. Particularly for extended frameworks, the need for quality assurance is high: The overwhelming range of options and algorithms is unmanageable by a domain expert and opaque to decision makers or the public. The resulting demand for ‘intelligent software’ with automated configuration can lead to a blind trust in simulation results even if they are incorrect. This is a threatening scenario due to potential consequences in simulation-based engineering or political decisions. In this paper, we analyze the increasing complexity of scientific computing workflows, and discuss the corresponding problems of extended scientific simulation frameworks. We propose a paradigm that regulates the allowable properties of framework components, supports the framework configuration for complex simulations, enforces automatic self-tests of configured frameworks, and communicates automated algorithm choices, potentially critical user settings or convergence issues with adaptive detail level and urgency to the end-user. Our goal is to start transferring the quality assurance discussion in the field of integrated modeling and conventional software frameworks to the area of extended simulation frameworks. With this, we hope to increase the reliability and transparency of (extended) frameworks, framework use and of the corresponding simulation results.