The role of heterogeneity in contact timing and duration in network models of influenza spread in schools

Influenza poses a significant health threat to children, and schools may play a critical role in community outbreaks. Mathematical outbreak models require assumptions about contact rates and patterns among students, but the level of temporal granularity required to produce reliable results is unclear. We collected objective contact data from students aged 5–14 at an elementary school and middle school in the state of Utah, USA, and paired those data with a novel, data-based model of influenza transmission in schools. Our simulations produced within-school transmission averages consistent with published estimates. We compared simulated outbreaks over the full resolution dynamic network with simulations on networks with averaged representations of contact timing and duration. For both schools, averaging the timing of contacts over one or two school days caused average outbreak sizes to increase by 1–8%. Averaging both contact timing and pairwise contact durations caused average outbreak sizes to increase by 10% at the middle school and 72% at the elementary school. Averaging contact durations separately across within-class and between-class contacts reduced the increase for the elementary school to 5%. Thus, the effect of ignoring details about contact timing and duration in school contact networks on outbreak size modelling can vary across different schools.     

MRI-based quantification of ophthalmic changes in healthy volunteers during acute 15° head-down tilt as an analogue to microgravity

Spaceflight is known to cause ophthalmic changes in a condition known as spaceflight-associated neuro-ocular syndrome (SANS). It is hypothesized that SANS is caused by cephalad fluid shifts and potentially mild elevation of intracranial pressure (ICP) in microgravity. Head-down tilt (HDT) studies are a ground-based spaceflight analogue to create cephalad fluid shifts. Here, we developed non-invasive magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-based techniques to quantify ophthalmic structural changes under acute 15° HDT. We specifically quantified: (i) change in optic nerve sheath (ONS) and optic nerve (ON) cross-sectional area, (ii) change in ON deviation, an indicator of ON tortuosity, (iii) change in vitreous chamber depth, and (iv) an estimated ONS Young''s modulus. Under acute HDT, ONS cross-sectional area increased by 4.04 mm² (95% CI 2.88–5.21 mm², p < 0. 000), while ON cross-sectional area remained nearly unchanged (95% CI −0.12 to 0.43 mm², p = 0.271). ON deviation increased under HDT by 0.20 mm (95% CI 0.08–0.33 mm, p = 0.002). Vitreous chamber depth decreased under HDT by −0.11 mm (95% CI −0.21 to −0.03 mm, p = 0.009). ONS Young''s modulus was estimated to be 85.0 kPa. We observed a significant effect of sex and BMI on ONS parameters, of interest since they are known risk factors for idiopathic intracranial hypertension. The tools developed herein will be useful for future analyses of ON changes in various conditions.     

基于交往理念的儿童家具设计研究

目的研究促进儿童交往的家具设计,以培养儿童的交往能力为目的,满足他们的情感需要。方法引入交互设计的研究方法,以行为为对象,通过分析儿童不同时期的交往行为特征,总结归纳儿童交往的行为模式,研究儿童、家具、同伴之间的互动,探索儿童交往行为模式下的儿童家具设计的新思路。结论研究儿童交往行为模式下的家具设计更具有适用性,能促进儿童间的交往,为儿童家具设计的发展提供新的借鉴。     

Unintentional injuries at school in China--patterns and risk factors

OBJECTIVE: To describe the rate and pattern of unintentional school injuries among primary and middle school students and to explore the major risk factors involved. STUDY DESIGN: A cross-sectional survey of more than 10,000 students attending 6 primary and 4 middle schools selected randomly from all schools in Maanshan City of Anhui Province in eastern China was conducted to collect information on school injuries occurring in the 12-month period before the survey. Rate ratios for risk factors were estimated using the negative binomial regression analysis. RESULTS: The annual person-based school injury rate was 5.22 (95% CI: 3.90-6.53) percent. The annual event-based injury rate was 5.40 (95% CI: 4.04-6.76) per 100 students. Most injuries in school were relatively mild and only 1.53% (9/590) of the episodes resulted in hospitalization. The most frequent injures were falls (73%), and the most commonly injured sites were the upper limbs (46%). Male sex, primary school grades, poor health status, poor ability to concentrate, bad risk-taking behavior and high study-related stress were important risk factors. CONCLUSION: This study provided useful baseline information on school injuries in China and identified important risk factors that would be important in planning prevention strategies.     

School regulations governing bicycle helmet use and head injuries among Japanese junior high school students

We examined the effectiveness of school regulations concerning bicycle helmet use in reducing head injuries among student bicycle commuters to junior high schools in the Japanese prefecture of Saitama. This was done by comparing the rates of head injuries and the ratios of head injuries to non-head injuries between junior high schools with and without school regulations concerning helmet use. Bicycle injury data were derived from school insurance records. Information relating to numbers of bicycle commuters and demographics was collected for each school. We identified that the head injury rate was significantly higher in schools that had no regulations governing the use of bicycle helmets (rate ratio 2.97, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.03-8.56; odds ratio 2.46, 95% CI 0.80-7.60). The observed trend was more prominent in male students than in female students. The actual rate of bicycle injuries did not significantly differ between the schools with and without regulations concerning helmet use. This suggests that students at schools with regulations were no more cautious in riding their bicycles than their counterparts in schools with no regulations, and that there was no significant difference in the traffic environments surrounding each school. Thus implicating that the observed difference in the head injury rate was most accounted for by the presence of school regulations governing helmet use.     

Joint modelling of serological and hospitalization data reveals that high levels of pre-existing immunity and school holidays shaped the influenza A pandemic of 2009 in The Netherlands

Obtaining a quantitative understanding of the transmission dynamics of influenza A is important for predicting healthcare demand and assessing the likely impact of intervention measures. The pandemic of 2009 provides an ideal platform for developing integrative analyses as it has been studied intensively, and a wealth of data sources is available. Here, we analyse two complementary datasets in a disease transmission framework: cross-sectional serological surveys providing data on infection attack rates, and hospitalization data that convey information on the timing and duration of the pandemic. We estimate key epidemic determinants such as infection and hospitalization rates, and the impact of a school holiday. In contrast to previous approaches, our novel modelling of serological data with mixture distributions provides a probabilistic classification of individual samples (susceptible, immune and infected), propagating classification uncertainties to the transmission model and enabling serological classifications to be informed by hospitalization data. The analyses show that high levels of immunity among persons 20 years and older provide a consistent explanation of the skewed attack rates observed during the pandemic and yield precise estimates of the probability of hospitalization per infection (1–4 years: 0.00096 (95%CrI: 0.00078–0.0012); 5–19 years: 0.00036 (0.00031–0.0044); 20–64 years: 0.0015 (0.00091–0.0020); 65+ years: 0.0084 (0.0028–0.016)). The analyses suggest that in The Netherlands, the school holiday period reduced the number of infectious contacts between 5- and 9-year-old children substantially (estimated reduction: 54%; 95%CrI: 29–82%), thereby delaying the unfolding of the pandemic in The Netherlands by approximately a week.     

Effects of a cycle training course on children's cycling skills and levels of cycling to school

Introduction

The primary aim of the present study was to evaluate the short- and longer-term effects of a cycle training on children's cycling skills. A second aim of the study was to examine the effects of a cycle training, with and without parental involvement, on levels of cycling to school and on parental attitudes towards cycling.

Methods

Three participating schools were randomly assigned to the “intervention” (25 children), the “intervention plus parent” (34 children) or “control” condition (35 children). A cycle training (four sessions of 45 min) took place only in the intervention schools. Parents in the “intervention plus parent” condition were asked to assist their child in completing weekly homework tasks. Children's cycling skills were assessed, using a practical cycling test. All participating children also received a short parental questionnaire on cycling behavior and parental attitudes towards cycling. Assessments took place at baseline, within 1 week after the last session and at 5-months follow-up. Repeated measure analyses were conducted to evaluate the effects of the cycle training.

Results

Children's total cycling skill score increased significantly more from pre to post and from pre to 5-months follow-up in the intervention group than in the control group. On walking with the bicycle (F = 1.6), cycling in a straight line (F = 2.6), cycling a slalom (F = 1.9), cycling over obstacles (F = 2.1), cycling on a sloping surface (F = 1.7) and dismounting the bicycle (F = 2.0), the cycle training had no effect. For all other cycling skills, significant improvements were observed on short- and longer-term. No significant intervention effects were found on children's cycling to school levels (F = 1.9) and parental attitudes towards cycling.

Conclusion

The cycle training course was effective in improving children's cycling skills and the improvements were maintained 5 months later. However, the cycle training course was not effective in increasing children's cycling to school levels.     

基于用户需求的小儿氨酚黄那敏颗粒包装设计

目的 提升小儿氨酚黄那敏颗粒药品包装的功能性和实用性,满足用户(家长和儿童)的实际需求,为我国儿童OTC药品包装设计提供新的思路和方法。方法 通过问卷调查及群众访谈,深入了解当前用户对儿童OTC药品包装的具体需求。其次,依据用户需求制定儿童OTC药品包装设计方案,并以小儿氨酚黄那敏颗粒为例进行设计实践。结果 针对具体的用户需求,提出儿童OTC药品包装设计可以通过安全性、便利性和互动性3个方面来实现。结论 以用户需求为核心的小儿氨酚黄那敏颗粒药品包装可以解决现阶段包装信息传达不明确、内袋剂量划分不精准、无法缓解儿童不良情绪、遗漏或重复喂药等问题,为儿童OTC药品包装的发展方向提供有力的实践依据。     

非物质文化遗产传承的可持续性发展研究——以大布江拼布绣为例

通过对大布江拼布绣可持续发展的研究,分析了大布江拼布绣的定义和存在的问题,并提出3个解决方案,一是社区认同的问题,只有社区认同和认可,非物质文化遗产才可能真正在属于自己的土壤里生存下来;其二,人才的培养是关键,从小学如何培养学生们对非物质文化遗产的认知和兴趣,分析中学、大学各个层次学校如何开展学生对非物质文化遗产的学习准备,为非物提供未来的设计师和潜在的消费者;三是各级政府和社会团体机构也需要为传承人提供更大的社会空间和如何保护传承人问题,及传承人如何提升自身素养展开。     

交通噪声对儿童影响的研究综述

作为城市最普遍存在的环境噪声,交通噪声对儿童的健康成长会产生负面影响。通过对13个国家67项实证研究的文献分析,发现交通噪声对儿童影响主要表现在以下三个方面:在身体健康方面,交通噪声影响儿童的听觉、睡眠和心率血压等;在认知能力方面,影响儿童的阅读表现、记忆力、数学能力、注意力等,但目前对各种认知能力的研究深入程度不一;在心理健康方面,交通噪声引发儿童烦恼、心理压力和行为问题。通过对文献的梳理与总结,发现目前的研究存在如下问题:评价指标各异,难以形成统一结论;相关因素众多,混淆变量干扰研究结论;研究范式不同,研究结论存在差异。基于问题提出相关对策:构建标准化指标体系与规范化研究范式;深入运用社会学方法,明确社会环境因素对儿童的影响;开展交通噪声与交通空气污染综合影响的研究,厘清后者对结论的混淆。     

儿童视角下红色文化主题展服务体验研究

目的 研究博物馆红色主题展如何有效增进儿童对红色文化的体验与认知。方法 以儿童视角为研究基础,运用影随法和照片引谈法,梳理用户体验地图,以宁波博物院《三江潮涌——1921—1949年中国共产党宁波革命历程展》为例,通过对儿童观展行为观察和体验受访感受记录,探究儿童视角下红色文化体验类型与影响因素。结果 得出多维度体验是促进儿童深入学习红色基因的关键因素,有利于儿童渗透式的红色文化学习。结论 归纳出四种儿童观展体验类型,分别为深化认知的感官式、由表及里的探究式、协作反馈的社交式、深化记忆的延续性体验,并分析了不同体验类型的影响因素,为博物馆红色文化展览提升儿童观展体验提供借鉴。     

The effect of changes in condom usage and antiretroviral treatment coverage on human immunodeficiency virus incidence in South Africa: a model-based analysis

This study aims to assess trends in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) incidence in South Africa, and to assess the extent to which prevention and treatment programmes have reduced HIV incidence. Two models of the South African HIV epidemic, the STI (sexually transmitted infection)–HIV Interaction model and the ASSA2003 AIDS and Demographic model, were adapted. Both models were fitted to age-specific HIV prevalence data from antenatal clinic surveys and household surveys, using a Bayesian approach. Both models suggest that HIV incidence in 15–49 year olds declined significantly between the start of 2000 and the start of 2008: by 27 per cent (95% CI: 21–32%) in the STI–HIV model and by 31 per cent (95% CI: 23–39%) in the ASSA2003 model, when expressed as a percentage of incidence rates in 2000. By 2008, the percentage reduction in incidence owing to increased condom use was 37 per cent (95% CI: 34–41%) in the STI–HIV model and 23 per cent (95% CI: 14–34%) in the ASSA2003 model. Both models also estimated a small reduction in incidence owing to antiretroviral treatment by 2008. Increased condom use therefore appears to be the most significant factor explaining the recent South African HIV incidence decline.     

基于设计事理学的儿童情感陪伴玩具研究

目的 从设计事理学视角,探讨儿童情感陪伴玩具的设计方法。方法 通过社会调研结合理论分析,提炼7～12岁城市留守儿童情感陪伴玩具中“事”的各外部因素与内部因素,建立合理的儿童情感陪伴玩具设计模型及评价体系。运用案例分析法,结合儿童情感陪伴玩具设计案例与实践,验证设计事理学在实际儿童情感陪伴玩具设计中的应用价值。结论 探索儿童情感陪伴玩具的设计路径,以Combot——具有情感陪伴与寓教于乐功能的儿童情感陪伴玩具为实践案例,证明了基于设计事理学的儿童情感陪伴玩具设计方法是有效可行的,可有效指导儿童玩具设计,满足父母与孩子的情感需求,促进儿童健康成长。     

基于路况适配下的城市专用校车造型设计

目的以满足我国儿童对专用校车安全性及舒适性的需求为目标,使其在符合我国城市路况环境的基础上,探索具有高度适配性的儿童专用校车设计方法和实践路径。方法通过对儿童行为及心理需求的分析,把握专用校车外观、内饰及车身附件的设计要素及实践方向,并分析路面状况、交通状况、道路规格等因素对于校车设计产生的影响,明确儿童专用校车的设计痛点和趋向目标。结果在系统分析了人、环境、车3种基本要素的基础上,依据设计方法及实践路径,开展儿童专用校车的外观及内饰设计,通过需求内涵的转译、美学要素的传达使设计实践结果达到了最终目标。结论儿童专用校车要综合考虑儿童心理、行为要素、环境系统等专用特种车特点,使其能够符合国情、国民特征,具备时代性和发展性。     

Motor ability: protective or risk for school injuries?

The study aims were to assess the independent contribution of motor ability to the incidence of school injuries. The study included 2057 pupils in grades 3-6 of primary schools in a city in the north of Israel. A surveillance system gathered information about injuries that occurred on school premises or during school related activities and required medical treatment or caused limitation of usual activities. Children provided information on sensation seeking, self-appraisal of health, academic performance, physical activity, and dominant hand; anthropometric measurements and motor ability tests were performed.The incidence of injury events was 4% (95% CI=3.2-5.0). Injuries increased with increased balance and agility, but there were no differences according to reaction time. No other study variables were associated with the incidence of injuries. Our findings of an increase in the incidence of injuries with better motor ability may express differences in exposure to risk situations between children with better and poorer motor abilities.     

满足4~7岁儿童发展需求的户外隐匿游戏空间构建及其设施设计研究

目的 构建满足4~7岁儿童发展需求的户外隐匿游戏空间和游乐设施,以实现减少监护人对儿童游戏的监督和命令,保障儿童自由、自控游戏,帮助儿童增强自我认同意识、建立独立自信品格,并培养高情商交往能力。方法 首先针对4~7岁儿童游戏行为的心理行为特征和游戏行为特征进行分析,并探究游乐空间和设施对4~7岁儿童游戏行为及心理特征的影响,得到儿童发展需求对户外游戏空间及其设施的具体要求;其次,结合儿童自我发展和自主游戏的诉求,对儿童户外隐匿游戏空间及其设施的设计要点进行了分析;最后从儿童游乐空间和设施的主题确定、方案设计及效果展示三个阶段出发,构建满足4~7岁儿童发展需求的户外隐匿游戏空间及游乐设施。结果 构建了儿童不断深入参与的隐匿空间、参差自然与社会相恰的诗意隐匿空间、象征性分割迷宫三种不同特点的户外隐匿空间,可满足儿童自主游戏的需求;此外,隐匿空间中内置的与空间特征相适应的趣味性、操作力助益游乐设施,其造型、材质、色彩多方面的设计考虑,可以激发儿童想象力,增加儿童游戏热情,促进儿童的探索兴趣。结论 构建了可满足4~7岁儿童发展的游乐空间和设施的设计方案,有利于儿童身心的健康发展,也为4~7岁儿童游戏产业的发展提供新的设计思路和方向。     

Networks of influence and infection: parental choices and childhood disease

Clusters of unvaccinated individuals are at risk of outbreaks of infection. When an individual''s decision to choose vaccination is influenced by the choices of his social group, such clusters can readily arise. However, when the interactions that influence decision-making and those that permit the transmission of infection are different—for instance, when parents make vaccination decisions on behalf of their children—it is unclear how large the impact of this social influence will be. Here we use a modelling approach to represent social influence within a network of parents and the transmission of infection through a network of children. We show that the effect of social influence depends on the amount of overlap between the two different networks; large overlap means that clusters of parents who choose not to vaccinate are likely to have interacting children, generating clusters of unvaccinated children. Spatially local connections can further increase the impact of social influence. Outbreaks are most likely when parents who do not vaccinate have children who interact.     

基于儿童需求的公共游乐设施设计研究

目的 探寻出一种基于儿童发展需求的公共游乐设施设计策略,以便设计出更好、更受欢迎、更具价值的儿童公共游乐设施。方法 分别从儿童的游戏需求、儿童的运动需求、儿童的安全性需求、儿童的审美需求、儿童的发展需求、儿童的视觉需求这几个方面对公共游乐设施设计展开探索。结论 公共空间中增设儿童公共游乐设施具有非常重要的价值,为了使游乐设施发挥更大的功效,应该基于儿童的各项发展需求展开设计。     

基于儿童群体特征需求的导视系统设计

目的 研究儿童公共空间内满足儿童生活需求的导视交互设计。方法 通过对城市儿童公共空间的观察、访谈和实际生存体验,分析儿童的生理特征、认知特征和行为特征,探索儿童生活需求,对人与人之间或人与物之间的交互设计进行有效分析。结论 儿童是不可忽视的行动主体,通过对公共空间内儿童导视系统设计的深入研究与分析,用体验设计、交互设计等方式体现社会生活的人本关怀,让儿童通过导视系统设计关注自我、发展自我。     

基于协作意识的幼儿座椅创新设计

目的 为培养幼儿的协作意识,提出一种有效的幼儿家具设计创新方法,进而构建一种新的交互模式。方法 通过对幼儿协作意识的培养方式进行系统分析,得出当下幼儿日常生活习性的社会属性。以幼儿座椅设计为实例,探索幼儿家具产品中群体协作意识的创新设计方式,把行为、心理、环境3个基本要素作为设计对象。利用TRIZ创新理论的分离法、组合法、联合原则、预先作用法,对幼儿家具产品设计各要素间的矛盾冲突进行分析。结论 构建了有利于培养幼儿群体协作意识的家具设计方法,设计出了一款适用于培养幼儿协作意识的家具产品。