Modeling urban decline: a multilevel economic-demographic model for the Dortmund region

"Selected results of a multilevel dynamic simulation model of the economic and demographic development of the urban region of Dortmund [Federal Republic of Germany] are presented. In particular, the capability of the model to capture both urban growth and urban decline processes is illustrated. The mechanisms that control spatial growth, decline, or redistribution of activities in the model are first outlined, and a demonstration of how the model reproduces the general pattern of past spatial development follows. Finally, results of simulations covering a wide range of potential overall economic and demographic development in the region are discussed." (summary in FRE, ITA, JPN, )     

Migration and urban change

"This paper examines the population development of large urban regions. Several hypotheses about patterns of settlement change in highly urbanized countries are discussed using empirical material derived from IIASA's Comparative Migration and Settlement Study. These hypotheses refer to interrelations between population growth and urban size, the role of migration and natural increase as components of urban population change, overall spatial mobility, hierarchical migration, and the age distribution of migrants moving between, out of, and into large urban areas." The emphasis is on developed countries. (summary in FRE, ITA, JPN, )     

“两型社会”引领下的规划与规划师转型

"两型社会"建设是我国社会转型发展的新要求与目标,也是应对快速城市化与工业化的新战略诉求。从规划的视角解读"两型社会"建设的内涵,可以理解为必须构建一种集约型的空间模式,其特征表现为整体性、公平性和可持续性。"两型社会"的建设必将引领规划的全面转型,包括四个方向:从"城市型"到"城乡统筹型",从"外延扩张型"到"内涵提升型",从"空间型"到"综合型",从"孤立型"到"协调型"。在此过程中,规划师的社会角色也将从"技术专家"向"公众价值的倡导者"转变,因而将承担起更大的社会责任。     

Urbanization and cancer: changing mortality patterns?

"Analysis of the relationship between cancer rates and urbanization for United States counties for the period 1950-54 reveals the expected urban/rural differences for many digestive, urinary and respiratory organ cancers and for female breast cancer. Similar urban/rural differences existed in many other Western countries. By 1970-75, however, urban/rural differences in the United States had substantially narrowed." It is noted that "available data do not allow formal tests of the relationship between these changes and specific etiological factors, but the data suggest that the spatial convergence is related to the changing geography of such risk factors as smoking, alcohol consumption, manufacturing, and socioeconomic status and to the diminished size and role of the white foreign-born population, as well as to such confounding factors as medical practices and population migration."     

空间过密化与反过密化——中国大城市空间演化的一个解释框架及初步验证

基于经济社会系统演化的过密化理论,论文从城市公共性的角度出发,以公共资源物质积累——即基础设施替代原理论中的经济产出要素,提出大城市空间演化中基础设施边际供给随人口递减的"空间过密化"假设。借助上海中心城区、深圳关内地区人口与基础设施关系的演化实证,论文认为,中国大城市在边际规律作用下经历了若干轮空间过密化进程,且通过"疏解"和"就地更新"两类手段实现空间反过密化。论文为解释中国大城市空间发展的过程机理提供了理论框架与实证案例。     

Growth determinants in the core-periphery of Korea

"This article describes the emergent spatial dispersion pattern of the urban system of the Republic of Korea, where the government has instituted a strong decentralization policy. Intraregional decentralization is underway within the core area, while intraregional polarization towards larger regional centers is evident in periphery areas. Through the use of step-wise regression analysis, determinants of the differential growth rates of urban centers in the core and periphery are identified. The different spatial development processes operating in the core and periphery have implications for growth pole theory and regional development planning."     

基于城市经济视角的有机增长规划实践——以宁波市为例

城市规划的本质是对城市空间资源进行高效配置,在引导城市发展的同时,保障社会公共利益.宁波市江北区城乡空间发展规划采用培育优势增长核的规划手段,在有足够强势产业或功能引领、有绝对优势的空间载体为依托、有相对合理的尺度规划相对应的情况下,形成"三主五副"的增长极,构建具有切实可行性的城市发展框架,促进城市有机增长.     

中国城市开发区的空间规模与效益研究

通过比较分析 ,认为我国城市开发区的规模与国际比较偏大 ,而开发区的地均效益远远低于国际标准 ,规模偏大、效益低下的主要原因在于开发区空间扩张中存在的非产业因素的促动 ,形成了其土地利用中独特的以土地闲置为特征的“光圈”效应和“蜂窝”效应。从城市开发区规模与效益的不同特点出发 ,立足于我国国家高新区的经验数据 ,提出了一个开发区规模的建议性标准 ,从我国城市设立开发区的目的出发 ,提出了一个评价开发区土地利用效益的指标体系与方法     

规划“不可能三角”——一个关于规划价值的新视角

借鉴西方经济学中的"不可能三角"模型,提出高度的市场经济、充分的社会民主和稳定的规划秩序构成了规划的"不可能三角",其内在逻辑是城市发展过程中市场理性与社会理性的矛盾,以及这对矛盾的协调界面——规划秩序。围绕这一模型,可以对规划地位、规划理性、规划价值、规划实践展开新视角下的讨论,主要观点包括:(1)对于城市发展,规划秩序应与经济社会发展拥有对等的影响权重,而不是简单地随动、从属于经济社会的发展和变革。因此,规划地位应予以加强并在空间秩序的构建中回归人的本质。(2)规划理性首先应知"有不可为",要把握好"度";其次,秩序的要义是"各适其位,各尽其才"。(3)规划价值体现在明确"是非"问题、不较"长短"问题、慎对"有无"问题,要构建一个兼具原则性、程序性和包容性的规划秩序。(4)在规划实践中必须重视规划的技术制度二象性,加强空间规划与政策设计的结合。     

A spatial equilibrium model for region size,urbanization ratio,and rural structure

"Earlier economic models of city size have either focused on urban agglomeration effects while ignoring the spatial structure of the rural hinterland, or made unrealistic assumptions (for example, uniform rural population distribution) so as to simplify the problem. Following the classic von Thunen framework, we present a two-sector spatial equilibrium model of a city located at the center of an agricultural hinterland. The city produces industrial goods, and the rural area produces agricultural goods. Both goods are consumed both by urban and by rural residents. Market equilibrium for these goods determines: (1) the spatial size of the region, (2) the urbanization ratio (urban to total population) and the population size of the city, and (3) the rural spatial structure (wage, population distribution, land rent, and agricultural yield). Given various sets of exogenous parameters pertaining to the industrial, agricultural, and transportation production functions and to population preferences, the model is solved numerically, and response functions are estimated and analyzed."     

大运河(常州段)与城市发展的互动关联探析

在运河水系、城市格局和产业布局的长期演化与变迁之间究竟存在着怎样的动态关联?这是大运河遗产保护规划在开展之前、所必须面对和破解的一项课题。本文聚焦于在历史视野下运河与城市发展的互动关联,通过"三脉并重"的研究策略和"历史性地图"解析发现:常州的城市格局、产业布局和运河水系的关系在总体上可以划分为前运河时期、大运河时期、后运河时期和新运河时期4个阶段;其中运河水系经历了从形态演变到功能演替的变迁,城市格局经历了从内生式发展到外延式扩展的变迁,产业布局则经历了从运河指向到综合指向的变迁,而三者之间互动关系也经历了一个从"最初形成,互动单一"到"内在关联,面临挑战"的过程。     

Asian megacity characteristics,problems, and policies

"Using ten Asian megacities as examples, this article discusses a range of megacity characteristics and problems, including population growth, economic structure, spatial strategies, land policy, urban service provision, institutional development, and managerial problems. In spite of major progress in urban service delivery, ineffective land policies and inadequate cost-recovery systems remain serious obstacles. Megacities need and are promoting policentric spatial structures, but implementation lags in many cases. Institutional reforms are needed to cope with the metropolitan region character of megacity growth."     

城市人口规模的战略视角分析——以武汉人口规模专题编制为例

城市总体规划具有调控各类空间资源的本质特征,城市人口规模研究作为城市总体规划的基础性研究应能体现政策属性.但长期以来,业界对城市总体规划中人口规模研究的普遍认识是一种以人口预测为核心的研究,关注重点也集中于预测方法的“客观”与“科学”上.基于城市总体规划是协调社会不同利益的公共政策属性的认识,研究认为其中的人口规模研究不应仅停留于采用技术手段预测一种未来城市发展的可能之上,而应积极推动其向政策支撑、向处理城市发展各要素之间的相互关系转变,并以武汉人口规模专题编制为例,探讨了一种寻求各类城市发展要素制约下有利于城市健康发展的城市人口规模的研究方法.研究发现,城市人口规模高低方案与城市发展目标之间的关系各不相同,城市人口规模目标的确定需要做出抉择.     

基于轨道公交网的珠三角城乡区域空间结构转型研究

珠三角作为中国改革开放的先驱,在取得重大经济发展成果的同时,其公路交通高速发展,轨道、铁路与航空等交通方式比重较少,综合客运结构失衡;以公路为主的空间扩张导致了城乡"蔓延式"发展,无法适应后工业化时代的需求。"公交时代"要求社会经济一体化和空间一体化,珠三角轨道交通发展逐渐以轨道交通为主导构建公交网络,以大运量的公交为主导,适应城乡统筹发展趋势,形成多中心、集约化的城乡格局,对珠三角产业结构的调整、经济持续增长等起到积极作用。     

面向内涵式发展的品质空间规划体系构建

当前,我国城市发展进入新阶段,发展速度减缓,社会主要矛盾转化,在这样的新形势下,重构空间规划体系,提升城市空间品质,实现城市内涵式发展尤为重要。本文在梳理空间规划发展演化的基础上,提出内涵式品质空间规划体系的构想,认为:内涵式空间发展的前提是完善"一张蓝图"基础上"底线管控"的技术体系和实施机制设计;内涵式空间发展的保障是构建和完善满足人类不同层次需求的高品质空间规划体系。未来的空间规划体系可从以下方面改进:完善保障个体基本生存需求的生活圈规划体系;构建保障个体安全、健康、交往等高级生存需求的感知专项规划体系;改进保障个体自我实现需求的参与式规划体系。     

Thermal design tool for outdoor spaces based on heat balance simulation using a 3D-CAD system

This paper focuses on the development of a thermal design tool for use in planning outdoor spaces by combining a heat balance simulation for urban surfaces, including buildings, the ground and greenery, with a 3D-CAD system that can be run on a personal computer. The newly developed tool is constructed by improving the previous simulation model, which uses the geographic information system (GIS) for the input data. The simulation algorithm is constructed so as to predict the surface temperature distribution of urban blocks while taking into account the actual design of the outdoor space using the 3D-CAD system. A method of multi-tracing simulation to calculate the sky view factor and radiative heat transfer is established. The optimal mesh size is examined for the tool so as to provide detailed spatial geometry within a suitable calculation time. The simulation model is integrated with an all-purpose 3D-CAD software, and the pre-processing method are constructed for practical use. The results obtained by applying this simulation tool to an area of detached houses reveals that the tool is able to evaluate the effects of building shape, materials, and tree shade on the surface temperature distribution, as well as the MRT and HIP, which are evaluation indices of the outdoor thermal environment.     

中山市城市总体空间形态整合刍议

中山市的进一步发展,面临市域层面功能、空间、资源、环境等方面的协调问题.中山市城市功能及空间整合的基本思路有三条:其一,寻求外部依托,重视城市经济腾飞的外部动力,形成交通流通便捷的开敞城市空间形态;其二,保持良好的生态环境,合理配置土地资源,为城市发展寻求更集约、更理性的空间资源配置途径;其三,强化城市管理、服务功能,协调利益分配,推动城市结构优化,重视比较职能优势,培育和扶持支柱产业,形成竞争优势.按照这些基本思路,可将中山市城市空间整合成"四组团,二绿核,三生态廊道"的组团式城市空间结构.     

论“城镇开发边界”的概念与运作策略——国土空间规划体系下的再探讨

国土空间规划体系建构是一项系统性工程,需要有一系列制度创新,其中包括市县城镇开发边界等"三条控制线"的划定及国土用途分类管制制度。本文首先回溯城镇开发边界的概念缘起;然后结合中外实践和实效比较,阐述城镇开发边界制度设计与国情的关系;最后提出,在国土空间规划体系建立和监督实施的条件下,要明确城镇开发边界的作用,要赋予其综合性内涵,并体现出层级传导等运作策略。     

Characteristics and Causes of the Spatial Evolution of Urban Villages:A Case Study of Shenzhen Special Economic Zone

Studies on the renovation and governance of urban villages have become the interest of human geography since the 1990s.However up to now,there is little literature focusing on the development patterns and dynamic mechanism of the spatial evolution of urban villages based on the theoretical system of urban spatial structure,and there are few scholars doing analyses on the relationship between urban villages and general urban areas in terms of spatial development.In this paper,Shenzhen,the most representative city of China in terms of urban village development,is taken as a case for exploring the characteristics and modes of the spatial evolution of urban villages.With census data of urban village construction in 1999 and 2004 in terms of built-up area,floor area,and construction intensity,the spatial and temporal evolution of the 91 administrative urban villages in the original Shenzhen Special Economic Zone have been analyzed in comparison with that of Shenzhen’s general urban areas.It is indicated that the spatial evolution of urban villages matches with the general rules of the spatial development of general urban areas in three aspects.First,land expansion is the most remarkable mode of spatial evolution in the early stage of development;second,in the period of rapid development,there is the obvious tendency of "distance-decay" in terms of construction intensity accompanied by some anomalous fluctuations at certain points;third,renewal and redevelopment are carried out gradually in the mature stage of development.However,because of historical and institutional restrictions,the spatial evolution of urban villages shows its unique characteristics in the aspects of original spatial distribution and spatial expansion mode in the period of rapid development,etc.The outcomes of this study would help not only enrich the theoretical study on the evolution mode of urban spatial structure,but also strengthen the administration over urban villages,in particular with the suggestions that the spatial evolution of urban villages as a type of urban space should not be the same as that of general urban areas and its unique characteristics should not be ignored;specific rules should be set up to guide the rational spatial evolution of urban villages according to the economic development of the city,as well as the housing demands of various kinds of residents.     

历史传承下的“城” “陵”视线关系量化研究——以陕西省咸阳市乾县为例

乾县县城即唐奉天古城,为乾陵的祀奉之城。历时千余年的古城格局与陵邑关系构成了乾县历史文化的主脉。以视线关系作为"城"、"陵"关系的切入点,通过对各时期县城空间格局的恢复模拟,运用GIS空间分析技术构建"城""陵"视线关系,并通过县城空间形态单元的划分与构建,借助视觉景观及形态类型学理论探讨不同时期城市空间格局中特定点视线与城市格局间的关系,并探讨其在旧城更新规划体系中的应用。对延续城市文脉、优化城市景观格局、凸显城市个性起到一定借鉴意义。