Interregional labor migration and information flows

A model of interregional labor migration is developed that incorporates a complex system of information concerning migration and employment opportunities, as well as a heterogeneous population in which groups of workers differ in their assumed levels of skill, attitudes toward risk, and willingness to move. "Three channels are examined: interpersonal communication, general source information, and specific source information targeted at unemployed workers. In this process, trajectories of welfare levels (composed of wage plus nonwage benefits), information flows, vacancy and unemployment levels are generated for different worker and job types, regional aggregates, and the system as a whole. The behavior of the model is examined by means of numerical simulations and sensitivity analyses."     

MATCHING UNEMPLOYMENT AND VACANCIES IN REGIONAL LABOR MARKETS: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS FOR THE NETHERLANDS

ABSTRACT In this paper we analyze regional developments in unemployment and vacancies in the Netherlands during the 1980s. Our purpose is to establish to what extent the differences in unemployment and vacancy rates are due to difference in regional labor market performance. The analysis is carried out by considering labor market dynamics using the concept of the matching function. We find a constant returns to scale matching function with coefficients of 0.25 for unemployment and 0.75 for vacancies. Efficiency rises substantially during the recession in the beginning of the 1980s. Regional differences in efficiency appear to be small for most regions, suggesting that a reduction in regional unemployment should by stimulating regional labor demand.     

Urban Policy And Telecommunications

ABSTRACT: An examination of the evolving information economy reveals several major shifts in employment and types of work that affect city development and activities. Telecommunications systems are the backbone of these changes. Cities are ill-equipped to measure and predict these impacts and are even less equipped to control them. The developer community and regional Bell operating companies are at the helm of telecommunications deployment; lacking guidelines or models from federal or state government agencies, cities will be at a disadvantage in dealing with the outcomes associated with increased utilization of new communication technologies. Several recommendations are made that may help the city administrator or planner exert policymaking power over these developments.     

Houses without people and people without houses: a cultural and institutional exploration of an Italian paradox

According to basic economics, when vacancy rates rise, house prices should decrease and vice versa, responding to supply and demand mechanisms. However, previous studies have observed that, before the economic crisis, this was not the case in Spain and Malta. It has been questioned whether this paradox is a Mediterranean phenomenon or simply the result of isolated cases of malfunctioning housing market. This paper contributes to this discussion by reviewing the pre-crisis housing market of a third case study: Italy. A Mediterranean housing system perspective is used to analyse the paradox, and methodological issues regarding the definition and measurement of vacancy are addressed. Moreover, the paper explores the consequences of the high Italian vacancy rate within a context of housing shortages and affordability problems. We argue that a better understanding of the characteristics and implications of vacancy is necessary in order to be able to implement sustainable housing and planning policies.     

Search and mobility in a housing market with limited supply

In this paper, a non-linear dynamic model is presented for a housing market in which various types of households and dwellings are distinguished. The model is based on a stock-flow framework, in which households have to cope with incomplete information when searching for dwellings. The model includes life-cycle patterns (social mobility, ageing) as well as stochastic dwelling preferences. Simulations are carried out with the model to investigate its properties (existence of stationary states, etc.) under various conditions of housing supply. Special attention is paid to vacancy rates, duration of residence, and length of vacancy chains.     

中国城市“新移民”聚居区的社会融合助推机制——对东莞的实证

伴随新型城镇化战略的实施,城市"新移民"的社会融合问题备受关注,其关系到"三农问题"的解决、新型城镇化的高质量实现和广大人民的获得感。本文以东莞市江南社区为例,通过问卷调查与实证研究,运用计量建模方法,分析社区尺度新移民社会融合的助推机制及其有效性。研究表明,江南社区新移民的社会融合主要受个人、社会、制度以及社区管理服务等四方面因素影响;社区助推手段可以有效促进新移民与本地居民的相互理解和交往,进而实现对城乡二元体制等的渐进性超越。实证表明,社区及社区基层政府对新移民的社会融合至关重要,应自上而下建立系统化的助推机制,推动实现新移民的深度融合。     

Interdistrict migration in Great Britain 1980-81: a multistream model with a commuting option

"In this paper an existing three-stream model of migration is adopted and extended to provide a first representation of district-district flows within Great Britain in 1980-81. The extended model incorporates an option for prospective migrants to choose commuting rather than a residential move after finding a new workplace, and employs a logistic function of distance in the regional or environmental stream where migrational opportunities tend not to be independent. Results are presented for the distribution of flows between local, regional, and national streams and for the geographical pattern of pushes and pulls in each."     

Socioeconomic characteristics of interregional migrants in England and Wales, 1939-71

"Data from the Longitudinal Study (LS) of the Office of Population Censuses and Surveys are used to examine patterns of regional migration in England and Wales between 1939 and 1971. The source of information on region in 1939 is from a national population register established shortly after the start of the Second World War." The results suggest that "overall, 18% of persons in the analysis moved between regions from 1939 to 1971. Migrants tended to be socioeconomically advantaged compared with nonmigrants. Moreover, those moving to regions where the nonmigrants were the most advantaged, were themselves the most advantaged of the migrants. This paper illustrates a new source of data on long-term migration that deserves further exploration."     

On the relation between origin income and migration

While traditional migration theory suggests that the rate of migration is negatively related to income at the origin, many empirical studies of aggregate migration yield a non-significant or even a positive relation. This paper utilizes a simplified model of migration to demonstrate that one possible reason for such results is the imperfect capital market facing migrants. Higher average income at the origin may imply a higher number of individuals who have the cash resources to finance migration, thus generating a positive relation between regional income and migration. The conclusions suggest the use of non-linear specifications in empirical migration studies.The views expressed in this paper are the author's; they do not represent those of the World Bank or its affiliated institutions.     

THE ELASTICITY AND EFFICIENCY OF JOB MATCHING IN DUTCH REGIONAL LABOUR MARKETS

ABSTRACT In many matching function studies, the measure of job matches and the stock of job searchers dues not correspond New hires or filled vacancies are related to unemployed job searchers only, whereas this should be the total stock of job searchers, as any job searcher, besides unemployed, can be hired or fill a vacancy. Furthermore, in many studies the matching function exhibits constant returns to scale. We show that there is a relation between the choice of variables representing matches and job searchers and the returns to scale of the matching function. If only unemployed are assumed to search for a job, then a matching function of total hires with constant returns to scale yields a matching function of hires from unemployment with decreasing returns to scale. A matching function is estimated, which corroborates this point, using quarterly regional data for The Netherlands The differences between our model and other regional matching studies can be linked to the role that employed job searchers and job searchers not in the labour force play in the matching process. It implies that if policy measures to improve the functioning of the regional labour market are required, they are best addressed to the northern provinces in The Netherlands.     

Income,self-selection,and return and onward interprovincial migration in Canada

"Estimated returns to migration based on comparison of individual migrants may be biased owing to self-selection in the migration process. Using data derived from the 1986 Canadian census, I will study the effects of expected wage differentials in determining the return or onward migration decision of nonnative adults aged 20 to 64 years. Evidence was found that return migrations were in the 'right' direction, as they are observed to respond to provincial economic variables (that is, average employment growth and income levels) in a rational manner. After accounting for self-selectivity, I found that...return migrants...are negatively selected, and experience lower income levels, following the return migration, than onward migrants would have, had they chosen the return migration option. This drop in expected wages decreases the propensity associated with making a return migration. Despite this drop in income, the large proportion selecting the return migration option suggests the importance of the province of birth in the mental map of nonnative migrants."     

长三角区域合作类型、障碍和治理路径

长三角区域一体化发展战略实施以来,区域合作动力更为多元化,成效日益明显,类型更加多样化,如专题区域合作、跨区域园区合作和毗邻地区合作。研究发现,这几种区域合作过程行政分割的障碍表现为逆向选择或道德风险的问题。针对不同问题,采取不同对策方式,有利于达成成本共担-利益共享的合作。专题区域合作通过成立城市间部门联席会议形成常态化沟通机制,可以克服信息不对称的逆向选择问题;通过开展利益协商,处理双方因合作意愿不一致、成本-收益平衡困难而产生的不合作道德风险。跨区域园区合作还涉及到持续的成本投入、利益分享,当前主要通过建立成本分摊、利益分享的合作机制缓解合作协议法律效应缺失造成的"合而不做"道德风险。毗邻地区合作既需要高位制定高质量一体化协调的准则和专业内容,也需要加强实体协调机构专班与地方之间的协调衔接,降低信息不完全的逆向选择和交易成本的道德风险。     

The role of higher education in China's inclusive urbanization

One momentum of rural–urban transition in China is for university graduates to work and live in the city where they pursued tertiary education. Against this background, we investigate the role of higher education for urban growth in China. A panel data analysis reveals that an increase of share in the population with at least a bachelor's degree induces regional population to grow. Nevertheless, contrary to other developed countries, inflow of high caliber immigrants from the countryside or cities of lower tiers in China in fact brings down real wages. We hypothesize that in China where education resources are limited, higher education attainment induces faster urban growth through breaking the barriers to rural–urban transition for new job market entrants, but at the cost of lower real wages due to affluent labor supply. However, the increase of population share with high education has insignificant direct impact on housing price, indicating that new talented migrants may not be the major home buyers. Yet, through the trigger of a faster urbanization process, housing prices are jetted up indirectly in provinces with higher proportions of degree holders. It poses pressing challenges to China where the country is advocating the idea of inclusive urbanization. This paper will discuss some of the key issues in relation to the provisions of education and housing services in China such that local governments can be more embracing to rural degree holder migrants, who will play a contributing role in urban growth.     

Stability and interaction in the housing market: Log‐linear and vacancy chain models

Although one may find some examples of vacancy chain analysis in which the chain is actually traced, most researchers use Markov vacancy chain models now, because these are less demanding in their data requirements. In constructing this kind of model a number of assumptions have to be made, viz. regarding homogeneity, stationarity and markovicity. Before applying these models the validity of these assumptions will have to be clarified. In this contribution we will present an empirical test for some of these assumptions, using a log‐linear approach. We will also use the log‐linear model to measure the interaction among various housing submarkets. It will be shown that three types of interaction can be distinguished and measured—segmentation, dominance and substitution. Although these aspects are crucial to the study of vacancy chains, they cannot be derived directly from the results of the vacancy chain models.     

The Resilience Dividend: Being Strong in a World Where Things Go Wrong,by Judith Rodin; and The Social Roots of Risk: Producing Disasters,Promoting Resilience,by Kathleen Tierney

Prospects for redeveloping the older areas of cities for residential use depend largely upon the extent to which consumers prefer central rather than outlying locations for new housing. The strength of the downtown core, the regional transportation system, and the proximity of vacant land influence this preference. Empirical studies of new housing in three contrasting regions provide a means of evaluating the importance of these factors and their effects upon rents, densities, and vacancy rates at central and outlying locations.     

The Effects of Vacancy Control

This article examines changes between 1980 and 1990 in the number of rental units and the demographic composition of tenants in four California cities that adopted rent control with vacancy control provisions. Six border areas within the four cities were compared to border areas of adjoining cities that did not have vacancy control. A spatial lag regression model was constructed to estimate the changes in regional and neighborhood components in addition to vacancy control policies. Vacancy control contributed to lower rents and longer tenure by tenants compared to non-vacancy-controlled areas. There were also fewer rental units in part because of a shift from rental housing to owner-occupied housing.     

Geographies of opportunity: a regional analysis of gender-specific social and spatial mobilities in England and Wales, 1971-81

"First, a regional analysis of the social mobilities of men and women nonmigrants [in England and Wales] is carried out. Second, the way in which regional context structures the options open to men and women is discussed, and, third, the fortunes of male and female interregional migrants are traced."     

Recent Suburbanization of Blacks How Much,Who, and Where

According to national survey data, blacks have become net migrants from central cities since 1970. Although this reversal of a long-established trend is generally welcomed, critics fear it may be resulting from displacement rather than preference.

Using Census and Annual Housing Survey data on intrametropolitan migration over three time periods, this paper examines the implications of trend reversal for black suburbanization in nineteen of the nation's largest metropolitan areas (SMSAs). Although black net outmigration from cities is generally observed, in only seven of the SMSAs do black rates of movement from city to suburb yet approach those of whites. In most of the other twelve SMSAs, black rates of outmovement have increased little since 1970 and remain well below white rates. Blacks who are above average in income and education consistently have higher rates of outmovement, suggesting that suburban movement still reflects choice more than displacement.     

An interregional labour market model incorporating vacancy chains and social security

This paper deals with three aspects of interregional demo-economic models which are important with respect to the analysis of regional labour market developments. First, attention is paid to forecasts of the exogenous regional variables, such as investments, exports, etc. Because data at the regional level are usually scarce, it is suggested to make these projections by means of a top-down model. Second, the social security sector is incorporated in the model framework, because changes in social security benefits, which are common in many Western countries nowaday, usually have substantial impacts on regional economic and demographic structures. Third, a vacancy chain model instead of a simple employment growth equation is tied to the standard demo-economic model framework. In this way not only employment growth but also migration, job mobility and related income effects can be taken into account.     

Social networks of rural–urban migrants after residential relocation: evidence from Yangzhou,a medium-sized Chinese city

This paper analyses the effects of residential relocation on China’s rural–urban migrants’ social networks in light of evidence from Yangzhou, Jiangsu province. Our study contrasts voluntary moves with forced moves driven by demolition-led redevelopment of urban villages. Based on data from a survey conducted between 2012 and 2013, the regression analysis shows that voluntarily relocated migrants are more likely than forced movers to use phone/computer to contact their former neighbours, and communication technology allows them to maintain the frequency of their contact. Furthermore, when moving to a gated neighbourhood, voluntary movers are more likely than forced movers to participate in public activities, to have more contact with new neighbours and thereby to get more help from the residents’ committee and new neighbours. The results suggest that forced moves have negative effects on migrants’ social networks in the neighbourhood and that the demolition-led redevelopment programmes do not promote the migrants’ integration in the city.