Are energy efficiency standards within the electricity sector a form of regulatory capture?

There is a growing trend to introduce energy efficiency standards at the state level. We examine why electricity utilities may be in favor of such a standard and conclude that energy efficiency standards may be a form of regulatory capture.     

The European renewable energy target for 2030 – An impact assessment of the electricity sector

The European Union set binding targets for the reduction of greenhouse gases (GHG) and the share of renewable energy (RE) in final energy consumption by 2020. The European Council agreed to continue with this strategy through to 2030 by setting a RE target of 27% in addition to a GHG reduction target of 40%. We provide a detailed sectoral impact assessment by analyzing the implications for the electricity sector in terms of economic costs and the regional distribution of investments and shares of electricity generated from renewable energy sources (RES-E). According to the Impact Analysis by the European Commission the 27% RE target corresponds to a RES-E share of 49%. Our model-based sensitivity analysis on underlying technological and institutional assumptions shows that the cost-effective RES-E share varies between 43% and 56%. Secondly, we quantify the economic costs of these variants and those which would be incurred with higher shares. The long-term additional costs for higher RES-E shares would be less than 1% of total system costs. The third aspect relates to the regional distribution of EU-wide efforts for upscaling renewables. We point out that delivering high RES-E shares in a cost-effective manner involves considerably different efforts by the Member States.     

Once bitten twice shy? Evidence from the U.S. banking industry during the crash of the energy market

We explore whether banks learn from past experience and modify their risk culture. Evaluating bank risk culture during the 2014 energy crash fueled by excessive bank lending, we find banks with a quick recovery after the 2007 subprime crisis find it unnecessary to change their risk culture, and banks that struggled to recover modify their risk culture following the subprime crisis. As a result, banks with poorer stock performance and a lower z-score during the subprime crisis that had a quick recovery are more likely to underperform during the energy crash. However, results show that while these banks do not modify their overall risk culture, they have learned from the subprime crisis by better positioning themselves for potential losses. In addition, larger banks and banks that did not receive TARP funding have not significantly changed their risk culture following the subprime crisis.     

U.S. oil dependence 2014: Is energy independence in sight?

The importance of reducing U.S. oil dependence may have changed in light of developments in the world oil market over the past two decades. Since 2005, increased domestic production and decreased oil use have cut U.S. import dependence in half. The direct costs of oil dependence to the U.S. economy are estimated under four U.S. Energy Information Administration Scenarios to 2040. The key premises of the analysis are that the primary oil market failure is the use of market power by OPEC and that U.S. economic vulnerability is a result of the quantity of oil consumed, the lack of readily available, economical substitutes and the quantity of oil imported. Monte Carlo simulations of future oil market conditions indicate that the costs of U.S. oil dependence are likely to increase in constant dollars but decrease relative to U.S. gross domestic product unless oil resources are larger than estimated by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Reducing oil dependence therefore remains a valuable goal for U.S. energy policy and an important co-benefit of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions.     

Is cluster policy useful for the energy sector? Assessing self-declared hydrogen clusters in the Netherlands

Research on science-based industries has shown that it is important for organisations to be active in interorganisational networks. Cluster policy has been developed as a means to stimulate the development of these networks and thereby the success rate of these industries. Cluster policy is however not a common policy instrument in the energy sector. In this paper, we focus on three self-declared clusters active in hydrogen-related R&D in the Netherlands and address several characteristics of these clusters. We conclude that cluster policy is a useful addition to existing energy R&D policies but that monitoring whether self-declared clusters actually function as clusters and what their contribution is to the overall system is pivotal in reaping the benefits of cluster policy.     

Is disaggregation the holy grail of energy efficiency? The case of electricity

This paper aims to address two timely energy problems. First, significant low-cost energy reductions can be made in the residential and commercial sectors, but these savings have not been achievable to date. Second, billions of dollars are being spent to install smart meters, yet the energy saving and financial benefits of this infrastructure – without careful consideration of the human element – will not reach its full potential. We believe that we can address these problems by strategically marrying them, using disaggregation. Disaggregation refers to a set of statistical approaches for extracting end-use and/or appliance level data from an aggregate, or whole-building, energy signal. In this paper, we explain how appliance level data affords numerous benefits, and why using the algorithms in conjunction with smart meters is the most cost-effective and scalable solution for getting this data. We review disaggregation algorithms and their requirements, and evaluate the extent to which smart meters can meet those requirements. Research, technology, and policy recommendations are also outlined.     

The role of coal in energy policy and sustainable development of Turkey: Is it compatible to the EU energy policy?

This paper aims to assess the current and future role of coal in energy strategy of Turkey, and evaluates the compatibility of policies to the EU energy policy and strategy. Coal is regarded as the most important indigenous energy source in Turkey together with hydropower to strengthen the supply security of the country. Turkish government set targets to fully utilize coal reserves of the country in next decades. However, the country is also in the process of becoming an EU Member State, hence, it is expected that the energy policies have to comply with the EU. Moreover, Turkey ratified Kyoto Protocol in 2009, thus the country should limit CO₂ emission together with other greenhouse gases. The probable obstacles that Turkey may face due to the utilization of coal were determined as CO₂ emissions, lack of technology and application in Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) and health and safety issues. It is concluded that coal is a very important domestic energy source for Turkey but new policies have to be developed and adopted immediately, and more realistic targets for the country should be set accordingly.     

Scenarios for the evolution of the Spanish electricity sector: Is it on the right path towards sustainability?

The Spanish energy and electricity models are clearly unsustainable: the large increase in electricity demand, a huge dependency on energy imports, and significant environmental impacts are clear reasons for concern. In this paper we take a look at the possible evolution of the Spanish electricity sector under different policy scenarios, and try to identify which are the policies that may help to achieve the desired goal, as well as the role that the different technologies may play. Results are quite optimistic in that, under the appropriate policy measures, carbon emissions of the electricity sector may be reduced in 2020 up to 37% compared to 1990, and energy imports may be also much reduced, at reasonable costs. However, this may only be achieved by strongly pursuing energy efficiency improvements and other energy conservation measures, which should then become a must for all energy plans in Spain, together with renewable energy promotion and stronger carbon reduction policies.     

The costs of electricity interruptions in Spain. Are we sending the right signals?

One of the objectives of energy security is the uninterrupted physical availability of energy. However, there is limited information about how much is the cost of energy supply interruptions. This information is essential to optimize investment and operating decisions to prevent energy shortages, or, alternatively, to determine the strength of the signals to be sent to the agents so that they may invest accordingly. In this paper, we estimate the economic impact of an electricity interruption in different sectors and regions of Spain. Although there are several caveats in our analysis, we find that in 2008 the cost for the Spanish economy of one kWh of electricity not supplied was above €4 even in a conservative scenario, which is higher than the signals currently being sent as incentives to avoid these interruptions. This might result in an underinvestment in short-term energy security, particularly when we add the usual risk aversion of most consumers.     

Economics of U.S. natural gas exports: Should regulators limit U.S. LNG exports?

This study assesses the level and destination of U.S. LNG exports, using a global natural market model under a wide range of EMF 31 scenarios. The scenarios reflect different U.S. natural gas resource outlooks, market conditions, changing U.S. environmental regulations, and possible changes in geopolitical conditions that affect the global natural gas demand and supply. U.S. LNG exports respond to market conditions under each scenario and are free from any artificial limits. In the near-term, U.S. LNG exports are uncompetitive in the Reference case and in the long-run U.S. LNG exports are significant when U.S. natural gas resources are plentiful. However under demand shocks (increase demand in Asia) or supply shocks (reduction in Russian supplies) or persistence of oil-indexed pricing cases, U.S. LNG exports become competitive to varying degrees. U.S. exports depend not only on U.S. economics but also on how U.S. prices change relative to price changes in other regions of the world. We conclude that limiting U.S. LNG exports is inconsistent with simulated uncertainties, and it should be left to the market to determine the levels and destination of exports.     

Nuclear energy policy in the United States 1990–2010: A federal or state responsibility?

This paper examines from a policy perspective nuclear energy policy in the United States (US) from 1990 to 2010 and questions whether it is or has become a Federal or State responsibility. The present study, as befits policy research, engages with many disciplines (for example, in particular, law and politics) and hence the contributions move beyond that of nuclear energy policy literature and in particular to that on nuclear new build and other assessments of large infrastructure projects. Several examples at the Federal level are identified that demonstrate that the nuclear industry has evolved to a stage where it requires a focus on the power of actions at a more localised (state) level in order to re-ignite the industry. The research concludes that there remains a misunderstanding of the issue of project management for complex construction projects, and it is highly arguable whether many of its issues have been resolved. Further, the research asserts that the economics of nuclear energy are not the most influential reason for no nuclear new build in the US.     

Matching policy and people? Household responses to the promotion of renewable electricity

In this paper, we study the responses among households to the promotion of renewable electricity. We analyse an experiment conducted by a Norwegian power company that offered Guarantees of Origin of supply to 5,000 of their customers. In the experiment, five different groups of 1,000 customers each received information about a renewable electricity certificate and how to purchase it. The information and the reasons given for why the customers should accept the offer was framed differently to each of the groups. The experiment produced minimal responses, and we use material from focus group discussions and in-depth interviews for interpreting and explaining the results. The analysis shows that customers tend to disregard information coming from their supplier, while there is also a low degree of commensurability between the message presented in the information and the understandings and perceptions held by the customers. For example, whereas the information contained the argument that customers must purchase certificates to obtain renewable electricity, Norwegians, because of their awareness of the country’s hydro-based production system, perceive electricity to be renewable as it is. Additionally, focus group participants found the presented terms and figures to be incomprehensible to the extent that the information can be said to have produced ignorance in them. In turn, this negatively affected people’s trust in the message and also its sender, as relevance and reliability are disclosure’s main challenges in Norway. We use the case of electricity labelling in Norway to demonstrate some of the general challenges associated with using information as a tool for changing people’s consumption patterns in deregulated energy markets.     

Green dreams or pipe dreams?: Media framing of the U.S. biofuels movement

Using a frame analytic approach, we identify and analyze the media’s portrayal of the recent movement to increase U.S. biofuels’ investment and development. Using a dataset comprised of New York Times articles, we examine the contested terrain of biofuels discourse as some media coverage frames biofuels as beneficial, while other reporting constructs and packages counter-claims intended to resist development and portray biofuels as problematic. We focus on both the content of frames and strategies used by media claims-makers to assemble frames. We find that the media constructed three distinct frames in their efforts to shape public discourse: economic development, environment, and national security. These frames were constructed primarily by situating them within a larger political and economic context to gain public legitimacy. In this paper we will show how, in their efforts to construct meaning around biofuels, the media draw on frames that are coded with symbolic meanings that widely resonate with dominant cultural values.     

Fusion energy : An energy source of the future?

With an increasing world population and a growing economy, the demand for energy is sure to grow. The latest predictions for world energy demand all show an upward trend and even with increased energy efficiency we will still need substantially more energy by 2050 than we use today. Where's it to come from? Dr Federico Casci of the European Fusion Development Agreement (EFDA) organisation believes part of the answer is fusion…     

How do oil price shocks affect the output volatility of the U.S. energy mining industry? The roles of structural oil price shocks

This paper focuses on how explicit structural shocks that characterize the endogenous character of international oil price change affect the output volatility of the U.S. crude oil and natural gas mining industries. To this end, we employ a modified structural vector autoregressive model (SVAR) to decompose real oil-price changes into four components: U.S. supply shocks, non-U.S. supply shocks, aggregate demand shocks, and oil-specific demand shocks mainly driven by precautionary demand. The results indicate that output volatility of the U.S. crude oil and natural gas mining industry has significantly negative responses to U.S. supply shocks, aggregate demand shocks, and oil-specific demand shocks, while lacks significant response to non-U.S. supply shocks. Variance decomposition and historical decomposition confirm that U.S. supply shocks occupy most explaining variations in output volatility among the four structural oil shocks. Moreover, the oil-specific demand shocks explain more variation than that of aggregate demand shocks for the crude oil mining industry, but the opposite is true for the natural gas mining industry.     

What is the future of solar energy? Economic and policy barriers

The most important characteristics and limitations of solar energy were reviewed in this study. The analysis of different aspects indicated that the most important global challenges of solar energy development were climatic challenges, technical constraints, and unwillingness to make investments. After describing current conditions and predicting the future of solar energy, this study analyzed the policies formulated by developed countries to develop this from of energy. Accordingly, China has gotten ahead of other countries in this industry due to the technological production of solar panels and governmental supports. Finally, the economic estimation of solar energy was presented by dealing with the economic barriers to this form of energy in developed countries. According to the significant growth in the reduction of solar energy electricity production cost, this source of energy can be used as a major source in the future. It was then recommended to use a hybrid of solar energy with other sources such as wind to reduce the costs.     

Sure,but who has the energy? The importance of location for knowledge transfer in the energy sector

Using over 350,000 U.S. patent citations, we test whether knowledge transfers in the energy sector are sensitive to distance, and whether that sensitivity has changed over time. Controlling for self-citation by inventor, assignee and examiner, multivariate regression analysis shows that physical distance is becoming less important for spillovers with time, but differs by energy subsector.     

Does the U.S. economic policy uncertainty connect financial markets? Evidence from oil and commodity currencies

We provide novel insight to the emerging literature on the role of U.S. monetary policy as a driver of a global financial cycle by examining the possible causal effect of U.S. economic policy uncertainty on the connectedness of crude oil and currency markets, using a sample of commodity currencies from advanced and emerging nations. A battery of linear and nonlinear Granger-based causality tests indicate the presence of a causal relationship between economic policy uncertainty and the connectedness of oil and currency markets, particularly at low frequencies and more significantly after the outburst of the global financial crisis. While crude oil generally serves as a net transmitter of shocks to currencies across all frequency bands, the spillover effects from oil are largely concentrated towards the G10 currencies of Australian and New Zealand dollar that are often used as investment currencies in global carry trade strategies. Overall, our findings suggest the presence of a significant pass-through effect of economic policy uncertainty via oil prices, spilling over to the currency market, in line with the emerging evidence that the monetary policy by the U.S. Fed serves as a major driver of a global financial cycle that describes patterns in global capital flows, credit activity and asset prices across financial markets.     

Modelling energy demand of developing countries: Are the specific features adequately captured?

This paper critically reviews existing energy demand forecasting methodologies highlighting the methodological diversities and developments over the past four decades in order to investigate whether the existing energy demand models are appropriate for capturing the specific features of developing countries. The study finds that two types of approaches, econometric and end-use accounting, are commonly used in the existing energy demand models. Although energy demand models have greatly evolved since the early seventies, key issues such as the poor–rich and urban–rural divides, traditional energy resources and differentiation between commercial and non-commercial energy commodities are often poorly reflected in these models. While the end-use energy accounting models with detailed sectoral representations produce more realistic projections as compared to the econometric models, they still suffer from huge data deficiencies especially in developing countries. Development and maintenance of more detailed energy databases, further development of models to better reflect developing country context and institutionalizing the modelling capacity in developing countries are the key requirements for energy demand modelling to deliver richer and more reliable input to policy formulation in developing countries.