Power,placement and LEC evaluation to install CSP plants in northern Chile

Chile is expecting a 5.4% growth in energy consumption per year until 2030, requiring new and better solutions for the upward trend of its electricity demand. This state leads to select and study one of the potential alternatives for electricity generation: concentrated solar power (CSP) plants. Such renewable technology found in Chile a very favorable condition. Recent researches indicate Atacama Desert as one of the best regions for solar energy worldwide, having an average radiation higher than in places where CSP plants are currently implemented, e.g. Spain and USA. The aim of this study is to present an analysis of levelized energy cost (LEC) for different power capacities of CSP plants placed in distinct locations in northern Chile. The results showed that CSP plants can be implemented in Atacama Desert with LECs around 19 ¢US$/kWh when a gas-fired backup and thermal energy storage (TES) systems are fitted. This value increases to approximately 28 ¢US$/kWh if there is no backup system.     

Energy,environmental and economic effects of Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) in a Developing Country

This paper analyses the potential of renewable energy for power generation and its energy, environmental and economic implications in Pakistan, using a bottom up type of long term energy system based on the MARKAL framework. The results show that under a highly optimistic renewable portfolio standard (RPS) of 80%, fossil fuel consumption in 2050 would be reduced from 4660 PJ to 306 PJ, and the GHG emissions would decrease from 489 million tons to 27 million tons. Nevertheless, price of the electricity generation will increase significantly from US$ 47/MWh under current circumstances (in the base case) to US$ 86/MWh under RPS80. However the effects on import dependency, energy-mix diversity, per unit price of electricity generation and cost of imported fuels indicate that, it may not be desirable to go beyond RPS50. Under RPS50 in 2050, fuel consumption of the power sector would reduce from 21% under the base case to 9% of total fossil fuels supplied to the country. It will decrease not only GHG emission to 170 million tons but also will reduce import dependency from 73% under the base case to 21% and improve energy diversity mix with small increase in price of electricity generation (from US$ 47/MWh under the base case to US$ 59/MWh under RPS 50).     

The costs of mitigating carbon emissions in China: findings from China MARKAL-MACRO modeling

In this paper MARKAL-MACRO, an integrated energy-environment-economy model, is used to generate China’s reference scenario for future energy development and carbon emission through the year 2050. The results show that with great efforts on structure adjustment, energy efficiency improvement and energy substitution, China’s primary energy consumption is expected to be 4818 Mtce and carbon emission 2394 MtC by 2050 with annual decrease rate of 3% for the carbon intensity per GDP during the period 2000–2050. On the basis of this reference scenario, China’s marginal abatement cost curves of carbon for the year 2010, 2020 and 2030 are derived from the model, and the impacts of carbon emission abatement on GDP are also simulated. The results are compared with those from other sources. The research shows that the marginal abatement costs vary from 12US$/tC to 216US$/tC and the rates of GDP losses relative to reference range from 0.1% to 2.54% for the reduction rates between 5% and 45%. Both the marginal abatement costs and the rates of GDP losses further enlarge on condition that the maximum capacity of nuclear power is constrained to 240 GW or 160 GW by 2050. The paper concludes that China's costs of carbon abatement is rather high in case of carbon emissions are further cut beyond the reference scenario, and China's carbon abatement room is limited due to her coal-dominant energy resource characteristic. As economic development still remains the priority and per capita income as well as per capita carbon emission are far below the world average, it will be more realistic for China to make continuous contributions to combating global climate change by implementing sustainable development strategy domestically and playing an active role in the international carbon mitigation cooperation mechanisms rather than accepting a carbon emission ceiling.     

Past,present and future status of electricity in Turkey and the share of energy sources

With a young and growing population, low per capita electricity consumption, rapid urbanization and—until recently—strong economic growth, Turkey for nearly two decades has been one of the fastest growing power markets in the world. Prior to Turkey's recent severe economic difficulties, Turkey's electricity consumption had been growing much faster than its production. It forces Turkey make a rapid action to supply electricity demand. Installed power generation capacity in Turkey reached about 31.84 GW in 2002. However, the growth in electricity generation has remained below the electricity demand, which made Turkey a net importer of electricity since, 1996. Projections show that Turkey's electricity consumption would continue over the next 15 years.     

Estimating short and long-term residential demand for electricity: New evidence from Sri Lanka

This study investigates the short-run dynamics and long-run equilibrium relationship between residential electricity demand and factors influencing demand – per capita income, price of electricity, price of kerosene oil and price of liquefied petroleum gas – using annual data for Sri Lanka for the period, 1960–2007. The study uses unit root, cointegration and error-correction models. The long-run demand elasticities of income, own price and price of kerosene oil (substitute) were estimated to be 0.78, ? 0.62, and 0.14 respectively. The short-run elasticities for the same variables were estimated to be 0.32, ? 0.16 and 0.10 respectively. Liquefied petroleum (LP) gas is a substitute for electricity only in the short-run with an elasticity of 0.09. The main findings of the paper support the following (1) increasing the price of electricity is not the most effective tool to reduce electricity consumption (2) existing subsidies on electricity consumption can be removed without reducing government revenue (3) the long-run income elasticity of demand shows that any future increase in household incomes is likely to significantly increase the demand for electricity and (4) any power generation plans which consider only current per capita consumption and population growth should be revised taking into account the potential future income increases in order to avoid power shortages in the country.     

Estimation of the inconvenience cost of a rolling blackout in the residential sector: The case of South Korea

South Korea is experiencing a serious imbalance in electricity supply and demand, which caused a blackout in 2011. The Korean government has planned to perform a rolling blackout to prevent large-scale blackouts when the electricity supply reserve margin reaches less than 1 million kW. This study attempts to estimate the inconvenience cost of household customers from a rolling blackout by using survey data. To this end, we apply a contingent valuation method (CVM) to measure their willingness-to-pay (WTP) in order to avoid a rolling blackout, i.e. the suspension of electricity supply. In this study, we estimate the inconvenience costs stemming from both an unannounced and an announced rolling blackout. As a result, we find that the inconvenience cost of a sudden rolling blackout is estimated at 3900.67 KRW (3.56 USD) per month per household, while that of an announced rolling blackout stands at 3102.95 KRW (2.83 USD). This difference in costs shows that people place value in receiving prior notice of a blackout, and that inconvenience costs of between 166.0 billion KRW (151.6 million USD) and 174.3 billion KRW (159.2 million USD) per year can be reduced nationwide by giving households advance notice of a planned rolling blackout.     

Synthesis and optimization of a PEM fuel cell system via reactor-separation network (RSN)

The main objective of this study is to develop the synthesis and optimization of reactor-separation network (RSN) models that can be simultaneously solved within Non-Linear Programming (NLP) for a PEM fuel cell system. The objective function for optimization was defined to minimize the overall cost and CO production. Five alternatives were synthesized to determine the best flow chart for the system based on cost and the output concentration of carbon monoxide. A Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Fuel Cell (PEMFC) system was taken as the case study. The results indicated that the optimum specific cost of a PEMFC stack was found to be in the region of US$ 500–700 kW⁻¹, while the specific manufacturing cost and the specific investment cost were calculated at the range of US$ 1000–1500 and 2500–3000 kW⁻¹, respectively. Furthermore, the infrastructure investment cost was determined to be in the range of US$ 10–30 billion with the specific cost for one unit in the range of US$ 2000–4000 kW⁻¹. The results obtained are comparable with other studies.     

Solar water heating potential in South Africa in dynamic energy market conditions

This paper is an attempt to determine the potential for solar water heating (SWH) in South Africa and the prospects for its implementation between 2010 and 2030. It outlines the energy market conditions, the energy requirements related to residential and commercial water heating in the country and the solar water heating market dynamics and challenges. It was estimated that 98% of the potential is in the residential sector and the rest in the commercial sector. The total thermal demand for 20 years for water heating was estimated to 2.2 EJ. A ‘Moderate SWH implementation’ will provide 0.83 EJ of clean energy until 2030 and estimated cost savings of 231 billion rand. For an ‘Accelerated SWH implementation’ these figures are 1.3 EJ and 369 billion rand. The estimated accumulated reduction of CO₂ emissions due to SWH can be as high as 297 Mt. The increased affordability of residential hot water due to SWH is an important social factor and solar water heating has a strong social effect.     

The prospective of coal power in China: Will it reach a plateau in the coming decade?

Coal power holds the king position in China's generation mix and has resulted in ever-increasing ecological and environmental issues; hence, the development of the electric power sector is confronted with a series of new challenges. China has recently adopted a new economic principle of the “new economic normal,” which has a large effect on the projection electricity demand and power generation planning through 2020. This paper measures electricity demand based upon China's social and economic structure. The 2020 roadmap presents China's developing targets for allocating energy resources to meet new demands, and the 2030 roadmap is compiled based upon an ambitious expansion of clean energy sources. Results show that electricity demand is expected to reach 7500 TWh in 2020 and 9730 TWh in 2030. Coal power is expected to reach its peak in 2020 at around 970 GW, and will then enter a plateau, even with a pathway of active electricity substitution in place.     

Large-scale bioenergy production from soybeans and switchgrass in Argentina: Part A: Potential and economic feasibility for national and international markets

This study focuses on the economic feasibility for large-scale biomass production from soybeans or switchgrass from a region in Argentina. This is determined, firstly, by estimating whether the potential supply of biomass, when food and feed demand are met, is sufficient under different scenarios to 2030. On a national level, switchgrass has a biomass potential of 99 × 10⁶ (1.9 EJ) to 243 × 10⁶ tdm (4.5 EJ)/year depending on the scenario. Soybean (crude vegetable oil content) production for bioenergy has a potential of 7.1 × 10⁶ (0.25 EJ) to 13.8 × 10⁶ tdm (0.5 EJ)/year depending on the scenario. The most suitable region (La Pampa province) to cultivate energy crop production is selected based on a defined set of criteria (available land for biomass production, available potential for both crops, proximity of logistics and limited risk of land use competition). The available potential for bioenergy in La Pampa ranges from 1.2 × 10⁵ to 1.8 × 10⁵ tdm/year for soybean production (based on vegetable oil content) and from 6.3 × 10⁶ to 18.2 × 10⁶ tdm/year for switchgrass production, depending on the scenario. Bioenergy chains for large-scale biomass production for export or for local use are further defined to analyse the economic performance. In this study, switchgrass is converted to pellets for power generation in the Netherlands or for local heating in Argentina. Soybeans are used for biodiesel production for export or for local use. Switchgrass cultivation costs range from 33–91 US$/tdm (1€ = 1.47 US$ based on 19 February 2008). Pellet production costs are 58–143 US$/tdm for local use and 150–296 US$/tdm until delivery at the harbour of Rotterdam. Total conversion costs for electricity in the Netherlands from switchgrass pellets range from 0.06–0.08 US$/kWh. Heating costs in Argentina from switchgrass pellets range from 0.02–0.04 US$/kWh. Soybean cultivation costs range from 182–501 US$/tdm depending on the scenario. Biodiesel production costs are 0.3–1.2 US$/l for local use and 0.5–1.7 US$/l after export to the Netherlands. Key parameters for the economic performance of the bioenergy chains in La Pampa province are transport costs, cultivation costs, pre-processing and conversion costs and costs for fossil fuels and agricultural commodities.     

Environmental and economic appraisal of power generation capacity expansion plan in Nigeria

The power sector in Nigeria is undergoing structural reforms aimed at improving and expanding the current grid generation capacity and distribution network. The Government has injected huge funds into this sector while also granting licences to private companies for the provision of electricity. It is also aiming to increase electricity generation capacity to 25,000 MW by 2020 from the current installed capacity of 6500 MW while also pledging to connect 75% of the population to the grid from the current 40% by 2025. This paper sets out to analyse the implications of the energy policy in Nigeria and presents the life cycle environmental and economic analysis of the current and future electricity sector. The results show that all the life cycle impacts and economic costs increase significantly over the time-period (2003–2030), but at different rates depending on the types of technologies deployed. Renewables such as large hydro and solar proposed by the Government have a potential to reduce the overall life cycle environmental impacts from the electricity mix, considering their lower environmental impacts compared to fossil-fuels. However, this requires a five-fold increase in grid investments from the current US$1.7 billion per year to US$9.40 billion by 2030.     

Strategic Eurasian natural gas market model for energy security and policy analysis: Formulation and application to South Stream

The mathematical formulation of a strategic Eurasian natural gas market model is presented. The model represents horizontal oligopolistic relationships among producers, bilateral market power between producer (Russia) and transit (Ukraine) countries, detailed transport constraints, and operation decisions over a 20 year time horizon. To demonstrate the model's capabilities, a financial and market analysis of the proposed South Stream gas pipeline from Russia via the Black Sea to South Europe is summarized. Insights obtained include the following. First, expectations of high demand growth in Europe and/or transit risks do not justify the construction of the South Stream pipeline because under all demand and Ukraine transit interruption scenarios, the net benefits to the South Stream participants are negative (the NPV ranges from − $1.9 billion (bn) to − $7.4 bn). Second, Ukraine's perception of high transit market power vis-à-vis Russia may trigger the construction of the otherwise unprofitable South Stream project. Thus, under Ukraine's high transit market power scenario, the NPV of South Stream ranges between $2.4 bn and $24.5 bn. Third, we find that the South Stream investment increases the efficiency of the European gas market under the following conditions: (i) when gas demand in Europe grows 2% per year up to 2030, (ii) when Ukraine poses high transit market power, or (iii) under a combination of severe transit risks through Ukraine and low demand scenarios in Europe. It should be noted that the value of South Stream to both its project sponsors and the market as a whole is much higher when Ukraine exercises transit market power than under the high demand scenario. Therefore, whether Ukraine is likely to wield market power is crucial to the success of the South Stream project because that is the only scenario in which the project yields both a positive expected NPV to its sponsors and the highest value to the market as a whole.     

Contribution of renewable energy sources to electricity production in the La Rioja Autonomous Community,Spain. A review

The implementation of the emissions market should imbue renewable energies with a greater degree of competitiveness regarding conventional generation. In order to comply with the Kyoto protocol, utilities are going to begin to factor in the cost of CO₂ (environmental costs) in their overall generating costs, whereby there will be an increase in the marginal prices of the electricity pool.This article reviews the progress made in the La Rioja Autonomous Community (LRAC) in terms of the introduction of renewable energy technologies since 1996, where renewable energy represents approximately only 10% of the final energy consumption of the LRAC. Nonetheless, the expected exploitation of renewable energies and the recent implementation of a combined cycle facility mean that the electricity scenario in La Rioja will undergo spectacular change over the coming years: we examine the possibility of meeting a target of practical electrical self-sufficiency by 2010.In 2004, power consumption amounted to 1494 GWh, with an installed power of 1029.0 MW of electricity. By 2010, the Arrúbal combined cycle facility will produce around 9600 GWh/year, thereby providing a power generation output in La Rioja of close to 2044.7 MW, which will involve almost doubling the present output, and multiplying by 8.9 that recorded in this Autonomous Community in 2001.     

Biomass and central receiver system (CRS) hybridization: Volumetric air CRS and integration of a biomass waste direct burning boiler on steam cycle

Concentrated solar power (CSP) plants generate an almost continuous flow of fully dispatchable “renewable” electricity and can replace the present fossil fuel power plants for base load electricity generation. Nevertheless, actual CSP plants have moderate electricity costs, in most cases quite low capacity factors and transient problems due to high inertia. Hybridization can help solve these problems and, if done with the integration of forest waste biomass, the “renewable” goal can be maintained, with positive impact on forest fire reduction. Local conditions, resources and feed in tariffs have great impact on the economical and technical evaluation of hybrid solutions; one of the premium European locations for this type of power plants is the Portuguese Algarve region.Due to the concept innovation level, conservative approaches were considered to be the best solutions. In this perspective, for a lower capital investment 4 MWe power plant scale, the best technical/economical solution is the hybrid CRS/biomass power plant HVIB3S4s with CS3 control strategy. It results in a levelized electricity cost (LEC) of 0.146 €/kWh, with higher efficiency and capacity factor than a conventional 4 MWe CRS. A larger 10 MWe hybrid power plant HVIB3S10s could generate electricity with positive economical indicators (LEC of 0.108 €/kWh and IRR of 11.0%), with twice the annual efficiency (feedstock to electricity) and lower costs than a conventional 4 MWe CRS. It would also lead to a 17% reduction in biomass consumption (approximately 12,000 tons less per year) when compared with a typical 10 MWe biomass power plant – FRB10; this would be significant in the case of continuous biomass price increase.     

Forecasting annual gross electricity demand by artificial neural networks using predicted values of socio-economic indicators and climatic conditions: Case of Turkey

In this work, the annual gross electricity demand of Turkey was modeled by multiple linear regression and artificial neural networks as a function population, gross domestic product per capita, inflation percentage, unemployment percentage, average summer temperature and average winter temperature. Among these, the unemployment percentage and the average winter temperature were found to be insignificant to determine the demand for the years between 1975 and 2013. Next, the future values of the statistically significant variables were predicted by time series ANN models, and these were simulated in a multilayer perceptron ANN model to forecast the future annual electricity demand. The results were validated with a very high accuracy for the years that the electricity demand was known (2007–2013), and they were also superior to the official predictions (done by Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources of Turkey). The model was then used to forecast the annual gross electricity demand for the future years, and it was found that, the demand will be doubled reaching about 460 TW h in the year 2028. Finally, it was concluded that the approach applied in this work can easily be implemented for other countries to make accurate predictions for the future.     

A comparative analysis of woody biomass and coal for electricity generation under various CO2 emission reductions and taxes

Mitigating global climate change via CO₂ emission control and taxation is likely to enhance the economic potential of bioenergy production and utilization. This study investigated the cost competitiveness of woody biomass for electricity production in the US under alternative CO₂ emission reductions and taxes. We first simulated changes in the price of coal for electricity production due to CO₂ emission reductions and taxation using a computable general equilibrium model. Then, the costs of electricity generation fueled by energy crops (hybrid poplar), logging residues, and coal were estimated using the capital budgeting method. Our results indicate that logging residues would be competitive with coal if emissions were taxed at about US$25 Mg⁻¹ CO₂, while an emission tax US$100 Mg⁻¹ CO₂ or higher would be needed for hybrid poplar plantations at a yield of 11.21 dry Mg ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ (5 dry tons ac⁻¹ yr⁻¹) to compete with coal in electricity production. Reaching the CO₂ emission targets committed under the Kyoto Protocol would only slightly increase the price of fossil fuels, generating little impact on the competitiveness of woody biomass. However, the price of coal used for electricity production would significantly increase if global CO₂ emissions were curtailed by 20% or more. Logging residues would become a competitive fuel source for electricity production if current global CO₂ emissions were cut by 20–30%. Hybrid poplar plantations would not be able to compete with coal until emissions were reduced by 40% or more.     

Natural gas consumption and climate: a comprehensive set of predictive state-level models for the United States

Separate models correlating natural gas (NG) consumption to climate have been developed for the residential and commercial sectors of the 50 U.S. states. The models relate a population-weighted average temperature to state per capita NG consumption on a monthly basis. The majority of the models have Pearson correlation coefficients greater than 0.90 supporting the use of temperature as the sole independent parameter. The sensitivities of the models to a 1°C increase in temperature, are compared for each state and the monthly sensitivity to climate integrated over the entire U.S. is investigated for a range of temperature perturbations. The predicted impact of a 1°C increase in mean monthly temperature on U.S. consumption is an 8.1% decrease in the residential sector and a 5.9% decrease in the commercial sector. In terms of the net consumption normalized over the study period (1984–1993) this corresponds to a 111.8 TWh decrease in the residential sector and a 47.0 TWh decrease in the commercial sector. The largest change for a single month occurs in January when consumption would decrease 19.7 TWh in the residential sector and 7.4 TWh in the commercial sector.     

Does product lifetime extension increase our income at the expense of energy consumption?

The present paper contributes to modeling a simple social accounting method with cumulative product lifetime distributions and argues how product lifetime extension affects income flow throughout the entire economic system. Empirical analysis focusing on automobile use (ordinary passenger vehicle, small passenger vehicle, and light passenger vehicle) in Japan revealed that if all of the additional income gain from product lifetime extension flows into the investment sector, a one-year lifetime extension during the ten years of the study period (1990–2000) would have led to an increase in income in 2000 amounting to + 7 billion yen, as well as contributing to savings in energy amounting to ? 4 × 10⁶ GJ. That is, longer-term passenger vehicle use increases income and decreases energy consumption under special cases. We also found that in the general case when less than 93% of additional income resulting from vehicle lifetime extension is directed to the investment sector, a + 1 year automobile lifetime extension increases income at the expense of energy consumption.     

Modern bioenergy from agricultural and forestry residues in Cameroon: Potential,challenges and the way forward

Environmentally benign modern bioenergy is widely acknowledged as a potential substitute for fossil fuels to offset the human dependence on fossil fuels for energy. We have profiled Cameroon, a country where modern bioenergy remains largely untapped due to a lack of availability of biomass data and gaps in existing policies. This study assessed the biomass resource potential in Cameroon from sustainably extracted agricultural and forest residues. We estimated that environmentally benign residues amount to 1.11 million bone dry tons per year. This has the potential to yield 0.12–0.32 billion liters of ethanol annually to displace 18–48% of the national consumption of gasoline. Alternatively, the residues could provide 0.08–0.22 billion liters of biomass to Fischer Tropsch diesel annually to offset 17–45% of diesel fuel use. For the generation of bioelectricity, the residues could supply 0.76–2.02 TW h, which is the equivalent of 15–38% of Cameroon's current electricity consumption. This could help spread electricity throughout the country, especially in farming communities where the residues are plentiful. The residues could, however, offset only 3% of the national consumption of traditional biomass (woodfuel and charcoal). Policy recommendations that promote the wider uptake of modern bioenergy applications from residues are provided.