上海市产业结构调整对于电力需求的影响

产业结构的周期性调整必然引起电力需求的波动。采用上海市产业结构变化相关数据和电量数据,根据周期波动理论,结合产业结构变动指标与电力需求间的关联分析,对上海市电力需求变化规律进行研究,得出各周期内电力需求受产业结构变化的影响情况,可为预测电力需求增长趋势提供理论依据。     

Estimating the net electricity energy generation and demand using the ant colony optimization approach: Case of Turkey

This paper presents Turkey's net electricity energy generation and demand based on economic indicators. Forecasting model for electricity energy generation and demand is first proposed by the ant colony optimization (ACO) approach. It is multi-agent system in which the behavior of each ant is inspired by the foraging behavior of real ants to solve optimization problem. Ant colony optimization electricity energy estimation (ACOEEE) model is developed using population, gross domestic product (GDP), import and export. All equations proposed here are linear electricity energy generation and demand (linear_ACOEEGE and linear ACOEEDE) and quadratic energy generation and demand (quadratic_ACOEEGE and quadratic ACOEEDE). Quadratic models for both generation and demand provided better fit solution due to the fluctuations of the economic indicators. The ACOEEGE and ACOEEDE models indicate Turkey's net electricity energy generation and demand until 2025 according to three scenarios.     

Optimal electricity supply reliability using customer shortage costs

This paper describes an economic cost-benefit method for determining the optimal power system capacity and reliability of electricity supply using customer shortage costs. The approach is based upon identifying a system plan that simultaneously considers cost-of-service as well as value-of-service, and maximizes the net economic benefits taking into account the interdependence between electricity reliability, price, and demand. In contrast to the existing literature on this subject, which considers only customer outage costs, this paper argues that it is the related but considerably broader notion of customer shortage cost that is more relevant in the context of optimizing the reliability of electricity supply. The paper develops a method for estimating shortage costs and sketches an integrated framework for optimizing reliability using such costs.     

Forecasting total and industrial sector electricity demand based on genetic algorithm approach: Turkey case study

This study deals with estimation of the total and industrial sector electricity consumption based on genetic algorithm (GA) approach, and then proposes two scenarios to project future consumptions. Total electricity consumption is estimated based on gross national product (GNP), population, import and export figures of Turkey. Industrial sector electricity is calculated based on the GNP, import and export figures. Three forms of the genetic algorithm electricity demand (GAED) models for the total and two forms for the industrial electricity consumption are developed. The best‐fit GAED model in terms of total minimum relative average errors between observed and estimated values is selected for future demand estimation. ‘High‐ and low‐growth scenarios’ are proposed for predicting the future electricity consumption. Results showed that the GAED estimates the electricity demand in comparison with the other electricity demand projections. The GAED model plans electricity demand of Turkey until 2020. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

电力需求与经济发展相关性分析

针对产业结构的周期性调整必然引起电力需求的波动,以上海市卢湾区为例,根据产业结构变化和电量数据,结合产业结构变动指标与电力需求间的关联分析,对区内电力需求变化规律进行捕捉,定性和定量分析得出电力需求受经济发展和产业结构变化的影响,为预测电力需求增长趋势提供理论依据.     

Estimating the price elasticity of US electricity demand

The use of a single electricity price has been seen as a major shortcoming of econometric models of residential electricity demand. It has been suggested that demand estimation should be based on the full rate schedule. This suggestion is evaluated here by examining demand estimates for 27 investor-owned US utilities over the period 1957–1972. The specification errors resulting from using an average revenue price are measured. It is found that statistically valid demand estimated do not necessarily require information on tariff schedules, but that state-wide aggregates of elasticity may often be inapplicable to individual utilities.     

Input-output table of electricity demand and its application

It is very important for electric utility to determine dominant sectors which have more impacts on electricity consumption in national economy system. In this paper, an input-output perspective and methodology is proposed to handle this issue. The input-output table of electricity demand (IOTED) is put forward based on the input-output table of national economy (IOTNE). The relevancy of electricity demand in various sectors is revealed by means of electricity consumption chains (ECCs), which are key components in the IOTED. Besides, a new concept, electricity demand multiplier (EDM), is presented to identify dominant sectors imposing great impacts on electricity demand quantitatively. In order to testify the effectiveness of the proposed methodology, a case based on provincial economy system in China is studied. Dominant sectors are identified and discussed.     

构建与区域产业发展相适应的电力营销目标

分析了"十一五"期间黔西南州电量供需形势,利用弹性系数法和线性回归法分别预测了"十二五"期间黔西南州电量供需形势,根据重点产业和行业的用电特性,结合兴义供电局需求侧管理现状,利用SWOT分析方法,提出了基于需求侧管理、与区域产业发展相适应的电力营销目标,即分产业目标和分阶段目标的电力营销管理模式。为国内三线城市的供电企业在新经济形势下预测电量供需形势、构建合理的电力营销目标和开展用户需求侧管理工作提供了实践经验。     

Residential electricity demand in Spain: New empirical evidence using aggregate data

This paper presents an empirical analysis on residential demand for electricity. This analysis has been performed using aggregate panel data at the province level for 47 Spanish provinces for the period from 2000 to 2008. For this purpose, we estimated a log–log demand equation for electricity consumption using a dynamic partial adjustment approach. This dynamic demand function has been estimated using a two-step system GMM estimator proposed by Blundell and Bond (1998). The purpose of this empirical analysis is to highlight some of the characteristics of Spanish residential electricity demand. Particular attention has been paid to the influence of price, income, and weather conditions on electricity demand. The estimated short and long-run own price elasticities are negative, as expected, but lower than 1. Furthermore, weather variables have a significant impact on electricity demand.     

Assessing reliability in energy supply systems

Reliability has always been a concern in the energy sector, but concerns are escalating as energy demand increases and the political stability of many energy supply regions becomes more questionable. But how does one define and measure reliability? We introduce a method to assess reliability in energy supply systems in terms of adequacy and security. It derives from reliability assessment frameworks developed for the electricity sector, which are extended to include qualitative considerations and to be applicable to new energy systems by incorporating decision-making processes based on expert opinion and multi-attribute utility theory. The method presented here is flexible and can be applied to any energy system. To illustrate its use, we apply the method to two hydrogen pathways: (1) centralized steam reforming of imported liquefied natural gas with pipeline distribution of hydrogen, and (2) on-site electrolysis of water using renewable electricity produced independently from the electricity grid.     

A seasonal hybrid procedure for electricity demand forecasting in China

Electricity is a special energy which is hard to store, so the electricity demand forecasting in China remains an important problem. This paper aims at developing an improved hybrid model for electricity demand in China, which takes the advantages of moving average procedure, combined method, hybrid model and adaptive particle swarm optimization algorithm, known as MA-C-WH. It is designed for making trend and seasonal adjustments which simultaneously presents the electricity demand forecasts. Four actual electricity demand time series in China power grids are selected to illustrate the proposed MA-C-WH model, and one existing seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model (SARIMA) is selected to compare with the proposed model using the same data series. The results of popular forecasting precision indexes show that our proposed model is an effective forecasting technique for seasonal time series with nonlinear trend.     

Interactions between electricity-saving measures and carbon emissions from power generation in England and Wales

The relationship between electricity demand reduction and the consequent change in carbon emissions is central to greenhouse gas emissions policy. This paper examines this relationship for the power system of England and Wales. Previous analysis showed that the commonly used conversion factor based on the system average emission factor significantly underestimates these savings (Hitchin and Pout, 2002. The carbon intensity of electricity: how many kgC per kWhe?. Building Serv. Eng. Res. Technol. 23(4)). Thus any policy analysis based on the system-average emission factor will under-estimate the potential for carbon savings from reductions in electricity demand. The present paper extends the previous analysis by using more detailed modelling to explore differences between demand reductions of differing load shape and magnitude; and the sensitivity of these figures to changes of the fuel mix of the generation system.     

需求侧管理下居民生活用电的系统动力学模型

针对我国电力短缺严重问题,基于系统动力学理论,分析了需求侧管理对居民生活用电行为的影响,构建了需求侧管理下居民生活用电系统动力学模型,对其进行动态仿真和模拟。结果表明,在需求侧管理的作用下,居民用户用电行为得到优化,用电成本降低。     

Fine structure of the price–demand relationship in the electricity market: Multi-scale correlation analysis

In this research we investigate the problems of dynamic relationship between electricity price and demand over different time scales for two largest price zones of the Russian wholesale electricity market. We use multi-scale correlation analysis based on a modified method of time-dependent intrinsic correlation and the complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise for this purpose. Three hypotheses on the type and strength of correlations in the short-, medium- and long-runs were tested. It is shown that price zones significantly differ in internal price–demand correlation structure over the comparable time scales, and not each of the theoretically formulated hypotheses is true for each of them. We can conclude that the answer to the question whether it is necessary to take into account the influence of demand-side on electricity spot prices over different time scales, is significantly dependent on the structure of electricity generation and consumption on the corresponding market.     

Design of electric power generation systems using waste heat energy

The recent energy crisis forces engineers to take into account reduction of electricity consumption as well as heat energy consumption in industry. As it is very difficult to save the amount of electricity, they have tried to recover electric power using waste heat energies. In this paper, the possibilities of electric power recovery from waste heat energies are discussed based on the relationship between supply heat sources and demand heat sources in chemical process systems. In solving such problems, the following difficulties appear: calculation of maximum quantity of generated electric power, determination of a suitable working fluid and its temperatures in the Rankine cycle, and so on. The proposed method can solve them using the temperature-enthalpy diagram and, furthermore, has the advantage of being able to design a final heat exchanger network with heat exchangers in a power plant by means of a synthesis method using the same diagram.     

On the electricity shortage,price and electricity theft nexus

Pakistan is facing severe electricity shortfall of its history since 2006. Several measures have been implemented in order to mitigate electricity shortage. The focus has been on raising the installed capacity of electricity generation and transmission. The present policy results in expensive thermal electricity generation mostly using expensive and environmentally hazardous furnace oil and inability of utilities to recover their cost of supply although there is unprecedented rise in electricity tariffs. This study concentrates on the electricity demand and traces the relationship between electricity shortfalls, tariff rate and electricity theft in the background of recent electricity crisis using the data for the period 1985–2010. We employed the Granger causality test through error correction model and out-of-sample causality through variance decomposition method. Empirical evidence shows that electricity theft greatly influences electricity shortfalls through lowering investment and inefficient use of electricity.The study concludes that electricity crisis cannot be handled without combating rampant electricity theft in the country.     

Electricity demand in Kazakhstan

Properties of electricity demand in transition economies have not been sufficiently well researched mostly due to data limitations. However, information on the properties of electricity demand is necessary for policy makers to evaluate effects of price changes on different consumers and obtain demand forecasts for capacity planning. This study estimates Kazakhstan's aggregate demand for electricity as well as electricity demand in the industrial, service, and residential sectors using regional data. Firstly, our results show that price elasticity of demand in all sectors is low. This fact suggests that there is considerable room for price increases necessary to finance generation and distribution system upgrading. Secondly, we find that income elasticity of demand in the aggregate and all sectoral models is less than unity. Of the three sectors, electricity demand in the residential sector has the lowest income elasticity. This result indicates that policy initiatives to secure affordability of electricity consumption to lower income residential consumers may be required. Finally, our forecast shows that electricity demand may grow at either 3% or 5% per year depending on rates of economic growth and government policy regarding price increases and promotion of efficiency. We find that planned supply increases would be sufficient to cover growing demand only if real electricity prices start to increase toward long-run cost-recovery levels and policy measures are implemented to maintain the current high growth of electricity efficiency.     

Turkish aggregate electricity demand: An outlook to 2020

This paper investigates the relationship between Turkish aggregate electricity consumption, GDP and electricity prices in order to forecast future Turkish aggregate electricity demand. To achieve this, an aggregate electricity demand function for Turkey is estimated by applying the structural time series technique to annual data over the period 1960 to 2008. The results suggest that GDP, electricity prices and a UEDT (Underlying Energy Demand Trend) are all important drivers of Turkish electricity demand. The estimated income and price elasticities are found to be 0.17 and −0.11 respectively with the estimated UEDT found to be generally upward sloping (electricity using) but at a generally decreasing rate. Based on the estimated equation, and different forecast assumptions, it is predicted that Turkish aggregate electricity demand will be somewhere between 259 TWh and 368 TWh in 2020.     

Renewable-energy clusters for remote communities

Remote rural communities are especially vulnerable to the reliability of conventional electricity supply methods and many of these communities are post-industrial and therefore suffer from fuel poverty. In this study, the potential contribution to electricity supply to a remote community based on emerging technologies for embedded solar and wind renewable energy, is investigated using simulation modelling. The technologies focus on photovoltaic “slate” roof coverings and micro-vertical-axis wind-turbines. A new model for photovoltaic energy-supply is developed and combined with an existing method for modelling wind-turbine energy. These supply-side models are matched to an existing model of domestic electricity-demand for a whole village community. Results show that in excess of 40% of annual electricity-demand can be relied upon from these sources, provided that a mechanism for surplus power export is available. In the absence of surplus power management, however, only 8% of the annual electricity demand could be met by these sources.     

An analysis of the welfare and distributive implications of factors influencing household electricity consumption

The deep economic crisis and the sharp rise in electricity prices have reduced electricity demand by Spanish households. This paper aims to analyse the responsiveness of household electricity demand and the welfare effects related to both factors in the 2006–2012 period by applying a demand model estimated with the quantile regression method. The results show that the electricity consumption of medium-high income households is particularly responsive to price increases, whereas that of medium-low income households is more responsive to changes in income. The retail electricity price increases and the economic crisis have led to lower and steeper U-shape price elasticities of demand and higher and steeper N-shape income elasticities of demand. The joint impact of those two factors on the welfare of lower-income households is higher in relative terms (i.e., as a share of household income) than for other income groups. These results suggest that the economic crisis and increases in retail electricity prices have had detrimental welfare effects, especially on the lower-income segment of the population. They should be considered when financing climate and energy policies through the electricity bill and provide a rationale to take such support, which pushes the retail electricity price upwards, out of the electricity bill.