The Old-Age Healthy Dependency Ratio in Europe

The aim of this study is to answer the question of whether improvements in the health of the elderly in European countries could compensate for population ageing on the supply side of the labour market. We propose a state-of-health-specific (additive) decomposition of the old-age dependency ratio into an old-age healthy dependency ratio and an old-age unhealthy dependency ratio in order to participate in a discussion of the significance of changes in population health to compensate for the ageing of the labour force. Applying the proposed indicators to the Eurostat's population projection for the years 2010-2050, and assuming there will be equal improvements in life expectancy and healthy life expectancy at birth, we discuss various scenarios concerning future of the European labour force. While improvements in population health are anticipated during the years 2010-2050, the growth in the number of elderly people in Europe may be expected to lead to a rise in both healthy and unhealthy dependency ratios. The healthy dependency ratio is, however, projected to make up the greater part of the old-age dependency ratio. In the European countries in 2006, the value of the old-age dependency ratio was 25. But in the year 2050, with a positive migration balance over the years 2010-2050, there would be 18 elderly people in poor health plus 34 in good health per 100 people in the current working age range of 15-64. In the scenarios developed in this study, we demonstrate that improvements in health and progress in preventing disability will not, by themselves, compensate for the ageing of the workforce. However, coupled with a positive migration balance, at the level and with the age structure assumed in the Eurostat's population projections, these developments could ease the effect of population ageing on the supply side of the European labour market.     

INTRODUCTION TO THE SPECIAL ISSUE ON CASE-BASED REASONING IN THE HEALTH SCIENCES

There has been an explosion of interest in health sciences applications of case-based reasoning (CBR), not only in the traditional CBR in medicine domain, but also in bioinformatics, enabling home health-care technologies, CBR integration, and synergies between CBR and knowledge discovery. This special issue features the best papers from the third workshop on CBR in the health sciences, held at ICCBR-05 in Madrid. It is the third in a series of exciting workshops, the first two of which were held at ICCBR-03, in Trondheim, Norway, and at ECCBR-04, in Madrid, Spain. The nine high-quality papers introduced here represent the research and experience of twenty-two authors working in eight different countries on a wide range of problems and projects. These papers illustrate some of the major trends of current research in CBR in the health sciences, and represent overall an excellent sample of the most recent advances of CBR in the health sciences.     

Increased synchrony with increase of a low-threshold calcium conductance in a model thalamic network: a phase-shift mechanism

A computer model of a thalamic network was used in order to examine the effects of an isolated augmentation in a low-threshold calcium current. Such an isolated augmentation has been observed in the reticular thalamic (RE) nucleus of the genetic absence epilepsy rat from the Strasbourg (GAERS) model of absence epilepsy. An augmentation of the low-threshold calcium conductance in the RE neurons (gTs) of the model thalamic network was found to lead to an increase in the synchronized firing of the network. This supports the hypothesis that the isolated increase in gTs may be responsible for epileptic activity in the GAERS rat. The increase of gTs in the RE neurons led to a slight increase in the period of the isolated RE neuron firing. In contrast, the low-threshold spike of the RE neuron remained relatively unchanged by the increase of gTs. This suggests that the enhanced synchrony in the network was primarily due to a phase shift in the firing of the RE neurons with respect to the thalamocortical neurons. The ability of this phase-shift mechanism to lead to changes in synchrony was further examined using the model thalamic network. A similar increase in the period of RE neuron oscillations was obtained through an increase in the conductance of the calcium-mediated potassium channel. This change was once again found to increase synchronous firing in the network.     

The application of IT in organisations: Some trends and issues

Abstract

This paper describes some trends and issues in the application of information technology in organisations. Technology trends are outlined in the areas of computing power, telecommunications, networking, software and standards. Some trends in the applications of IT are described with respect to developments in information systems and office automation. Some differences in the likely role of IT in the industrialised and developing countries are discussed. The second half of the paper deals with issues in the management of IT applications in organisations, and issues are identified as being political, organisational and social in nature in addition to technical. A social systems framework is proposed for the analysis of these issues. Some specific IT issues are then discussed involving alternative stakeholder perspectives, the analysis of decision making processes, the process of consultation and communication and the organisational impacts of IT applications.     

Access to information in Europe

Developments in telecommunications, together with the availability of large collections of bibliographic references in computer-readable form, have produced a great change in access to scientific and technical information. Although the major information systems are in the USA, there is rapid development in Europe under the stimulus of the Commission of the European Communities' action plans in this area. Progress in the provision of information systems in Europe is described, and the problems that are still under consideration are discussed.     

Deflationary Regulation of Market Equilibrium

Deflation in economy is defined as a result of reduction of the amount of money in circulation by the Central Bank and the financial sector, which violated the equilibrium. The equilibrium can be restored by the market system in the process of regulating the production of goods through reduction in the number of employed in the production sector in the context of consumer demand. To restore the growth of production of goods and overcome deflationary period, the Central Bank, at the cost of capital employed in production, should establish the amount of money in circulation that ensures the necessary level of inflation. As a result, overcoming the deflation leads to a financial catastrophe with high unemployment and hyperinflation.     

A comparison of models for fusion of the auditory and visual sensors in speech perception

Though a large amount of psychological and physiological evidence of audio-visual integration in speech has been collected in the last 20 years, there is no agreement about the nature of the fusion process. We present the main experimental data, and describe the various models proposed in the literature, together with a number of studies in the field of automatic audiovisual speech recognition. We discuss these models in relation to general proposals arising from psychology in the field of intersensory interaction, or from the field of vision and robotics in the field of sensor fusion. Then we examine the characteristics of four main models, in the light of psychological data and formal properties, and we present the results of a modelling study on audio-visual recognition of French vowels in noise. We conclude in favor of the relative superiority of a model in which the auditory and visual inputs are projected and fused in a common representation space related to motor properties of speech objects, the fused representation being further classified for lexical access.     

在结构与随机扰动下的大系统的稳定性

在本文中,我们给出了在结构与随机扰动下的动态大系统的稳定性分析,建立了这类大系统的依概率吸引性,依概率一致有界性,依概率大范围渐近稳定性,p吸引性,一致p有界性,和大范围渐近p稳定性的结论。这些结论的假设是由孤立子系统和与其联系的李亚普诺夫函数,受扰系统的结构和作用在子系统上的随机扰动表出的。     

Adaptive solutions to the mutual exclusion problem

Summary Algorithms for mutual exclusion that adapt to the current degree of contention are developed. Afilter and a leader election algorithm form the basic building blocks. The algorithms achieve system response times that are independent of the total number of processes and governed instead by the current degree of contention. The final algorithm achieves a constant amortized system response time. Manhoi Choy was born in 1967 in Hong Kong. He received his B.Sc. in Electrical and Electronic Engineerings from the University of Hong Kong in 1989, and his M.Sc. in Computer Science from the University of California at Santa Barbara in 1991. Currently, he is working on his Ph.D. in Computer Science at the University of California at Santa Barbara. His research interests are in the areas of parallel and distributed systems, and distributed algorithms. Ambuj K. Singh is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Computer Science at the University of California, Santa Barbara. He received a Ph.D. in Computer Science from the University of Texas at Austin in 1989, an M.S. in Computer Science from Iowa State University in 1984, and a B.Tech. from the Indian Institute of Technology at Kharagpur in 1982. His research interests are in the areas of adaptive resource allocation, concurrent program development, and distributed shared memory.A preliminary version of the paper appeared in the 12th Annual ACM Symposium on Principles of Distributed ComputingWork supported in part by NSF grants CCR-9008628 and CCR-9223094     

以竞赛培养模式推动理工科程序设计课程改革

提高理工科程序设计课程教学质量是当前需要重点关注的问题。本文在分析当前程序设计课程存在的问题的基础上,阐述了以大学生程序设计竞赛的培养模式推动程序设计课程改革的观点,同时结合本校学生程序设计能力和创新能力培养的实际,介绍了对程序设计课程的教学思路、教学内容、教学方法、实践方式所进行的改革。     

关联规则挖掘技术研究进展*

为帮助人们深入研究关联规则挖掘技术,总结了关联规则的分类方法、评价方法以及相关技术的最新进展,特别是对关联规则的主要算法进行了详细的介绍,并探讨未来的发展方向。该研究比较系统全面,对将来进一步深入分析关联规则挖掘技术具有指导意义。     

利用MODIS EVI时间序列数据分析福建省植被变化(2000~2017年)

以全国森林覆盖率最高的福建省为研究对象,利用2000~2017年夏季的MODIS EVI植被指数数据和气象与非气象因子进行协同分析,以揭示近17年福建植被的时空变化及其影响因子。结果表明:研究期内福建的EVI均值整体上升,从2000年的0.454上升至2017年的0.505,17 a间上升了11.2%,表明福建省的植被整体处于变好的状态,且在中部和西南部的变化最明显。相关分析表明,在研究期内,气象因子(气温和降水)对EVI变化的影响不显著,植被的变好主要为非气象因子的作用。EVI的提高主要得益于2003年福建省建设生态省后森林覆盖率的提高,并和2012年开始的水土流失治理有明显关系,这说明人类活动的积极作用对福建植被的变好起到了关键的作用。     

汉语多重关系复句的关系层次分析

汉语多重关系复句的句法分析问题主要由复句中的关系分析和层次分析两部分组成.将多重关系复句中的层次分析作为研究对象.它是针对多种逻辑或并列关系,按照一定层次组成复杂主从关系复句而进行的关系层次分析过程.为了有效地形式化地表示多重关系复句的层次结构,提出了关系层次树的概念,并以此为基础构造文法,采用部分数据驱动的确定性移进-归约算法实现多重关系复句的关系层次分析.通过开放测试对计算机实现的多重关系复句句法分析器进行考察,93.56%的正确率使所提出的分析方法的有效性和正确性得到了充分的验证.     

Automata with Multivalued Input and Their Behavior in Random Environments

In the last quarter century, the interests of the investigators of automata have ranged over many problems, from algorithms for economical and reliable relay-type automata to abstract theory, including problems of representability of events in various automata. Among the many topics of that theory, much attention has recently been devoted to behavior of automata in competitive situations and games. The interest in these topics was stimulated by developments in physiology and psychology, by attempts to explain the development of purposeful behavior in animals and by the desire to simulate behavioral acts. Later, it was found that the results achieved in this field were useful in several complex control problems, in particular, the control of industrial plants, and this led to new problems in the theory. In this paper we shall sketch out an approach to the problem of behavior of automata in various situations (environments).     

北半球及典型区雪深时空分布与变化特征

基于欧空局的GlobSnow雪水当量数据集和国家青藏高原科学数据中心的北半球长时间序列雪深数据集NHSD研究了北半球及9个典型区的雪深时空分布与变化特征。结果表明：北半球1988~2018年平均雪深总体呈显著下降趋势（p<0.01）,年际变化幅度为-0.55 cm·（10 a）^-1。在高纬度地区,加拿大北部和阿拉斯加年平均雪深下降明显（p<0.01）,下降速率分别为3.48 cm·（10 a）^-1和3 cm·（10 a）^-1,两地区月平均雪深在冬季显著下降。西西伯利亚平原和东欧平原年平均雪深呈下降趋势,其中东欧平原雪深下降较为明显（p<0.01）,变化速率为-2.3 cm·（10 a）^-1,两地区的月平均雪深在春季显著下降,其中5月份最为明显。东西伯利亚山地的雪深年际变化呈增加趋势,除堪察加半岛外,其月平均雪深在冬季呈显著增加趋势。对于高山区,阿尔卑斯山脉和落基山脉的年平均雪深呈缓慢增长趋势,而青藏高原地区雪深呈缓慢下降趋势。阿尔卑斯山脉的月平均雪深在冬季呈显著增加趋势,5月份显著减小。落基山脉和青藏高原雪深变化呈现出空间异质性：在整个研究时段,落基山脉北部月平均雪深呈下降趋势,中部和南部呈上升趋势;青藏高原的北部边缘山脉雪深呈显著上升趋势,中部大多数地区呈下降趋势。喜马拉雅山脉的北坡雪深增加,南坡雪深减小,但其变化率绝对值小于0.5 cm·a^-1。东南部雪深较大的念青唐古拉山脉冬季雪深呈显著下降趋势。对9个典型区雪深的年内分析（2001~2010年平均值）结果显示：高山区雪深峰值远低于高纬度地区雪深峰值。除青藏高原外,高山区的积雪融化起始日期明显早于高纬度地区。     

Mode and modal transfer effects on performance and discourse organization with an information retrieval dialogue system in natural language

This paper describes an experiment on the effects of learning, mode of interaction (written vs. spoken) and transfer mode on user performance and discourse organization during interaction with a natural language dialogue system. Forty-eight participants took part in a series of 12 dialogues with an information retrieval system presented either in the written or the spoken mode during the first six dialogues. The next six dialogues were then presented either in the same interaction mode or in another mode. The analysis of the results showed that performance (time, number of effective turns) improved throughout the dialogues whatever the mode of interaction. Nevertheless, performance was higher in the written mode. Moreover, mode-specific characteristics were observed. These consisted in greater use of subject pronouns and articles in the spoken mode. Similarly, in the spoken mode, the users found it easier to re-use the formulations presented in the system speech than in the written mode. Furthermore, the analysis also revealed a positive transfer effect on performance and discourse organization when the individuals first interacted in the spoken mode and then in the written mode. Both positive and negative transfer effects were observed when the individuals interacted first in the written mode followed by the spoken mode. The implications of the results are discussed in terms of direct and indirect consequences of modality effects on natural language dialogue interaction.     

A distributed deadlock detection and resolution algorithm and itscorrectness proof

The key idea of the algorithm is to let one transaction controller be in charge of all transactions in a set of interacting transactions. Two transactions are interacting if they are both interested in (accessing) the same resource. In addition, the controller is in charge of all the resources allocated to any of the transactions in the set. Having one controller in charge of all the transactions in a set of interacting transactions and all the resources allocated to them makes it easier to detect deadlocks and avoid them. The main problem dealt with is how a controller takes charge of another transaction when the transaction tries to access one of the resources currently in the control of the controller and how a controller releases a transaction back to its original controller when the transaction is no longer interested in any of the resources in which one or more of the other transactions are also interested. Communicating sequential processes (CSP) is used to code the algorithm. The correctness of the algorithm is proved in a semiformal manner