Influence of systematic errors from tipping bucket rain gauges on recorded rainfall data

Tipping bucket rain gauges (TBR) are widely used in urban hydrology. The present study investigated the uncertainties in recorded rainfall intensity induced by the following properties of the TBR: depth resolution i.e. the bucket volume, calibration parameters, wetting and evaporation losses and the method of data recording (time between tips or tips per minute). The errors were analysed by means of a TBR simulator i.e. a simulation program that models the behaviour of a TBR. Rainfall data disaggregated to 6 seconds from measured 1-min data and randomly varied were taken as input to the simulator. Different TBR data series were produced by changing the properties of the simulated rain gauge. These data series together with the original rainfall events were used as input to a rainfall-runoff model. Computed overflow volume and peak discharge from a combined sewer overflow (CSO) weir were compared. Errors due to depth resolution (i.e. the bucket size) proved to be small. Therefore TBRs with a depth resolution up to 0.254 mm can be used in urban hydrology without inducing significant errors. Wetting and evaporation losses caused small errors. The method of data recording had also little influence. For larger bucket volumes variable time step recording induced smaller errors than tips per minute recording.     

关于翻斗式雨量传感器误差检定的思考

翻斗式雨量传感器是一种水文、气象观测仪器，它对自然界降雨的测量误差将直接影响雨量数据收集的精度。由降雨强度不确定性而造成的误差是动态过程引起的，是进行误差检定的主要内容。通过分析目前安装在野外使用的翻斗式雨量传感器检定方法的不便，提出了适用野外模拟大、中、小雨强检定的新方法。     

大坝安全监测数据的分段多项式滤波方法研究

大坝安全监测效应量的主要特点是周期性、时效性、含有测读误差等。数据序列波的目的是在保留数据序列的周期性、时效性及其它原因量引起的效应分量的前提下，尽可能地削弱测读误差的影响。分段多项式滤波是一种将数据序列按一定时间长度分段，在分段的数据序列上进行多项式拟合，相邻段的多项式之间满足一定条件的最小二乘滤波方法。用此方法还可以进行观测值的可靠性检验和粗差剔除。这种滤波方法特别适合工程运行期的安全监测数据序列的滤波。     

Influence of Rainfall,Model Parameters and Routing Methods on Stormwater Modelling

Quantification of the uncertainty associated with stormwater models should be analyzed before using modelling results to make decisions on urban stormwater control and management programs. In this study, the InfoWorks Integrated Catchment Modelling (ICM) rainfall-runoff model was used to simulate hydrographs at the outfall of a catchment (drainage area 8.3 ha, with 95% pervious areas) in Shenzhen, China. The model was calibrated and validated for two rainfall events with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency >0.81. The influence of rainfall, model parameters and routing methods on outflow hydrograph of the catchment was systematically studied. The influence of rainfall was analyzed using generated rainfall distributions with random errors and systematic errors (± 30% offsets). Random errors had less influence than systematic errors on peak flow and runoff volume, especially for two rainfall events with larger depths and longer durations. The Monte Carlo simulations using 500 parameter sets were used to verify the equifinality of the nine model parameters and determine the prediction uncertainty. Most of the monitored flows were within the uncertainty range. The influence of two routing methods from rainfall excess to hydrograph was studied. The InfoWorks ICM model incorporating double quasilinear reservoir routing was found to have a larger effect on the simulated hydrographs for rainfall events having larger depths and longer durations than using the U.S. EPA’s Storm Water Management Model nonlinear reservoir routing method did.

     

LJ-Ⅱ型灌浆、压水测控系统各参数的现场标定和误差分析

U-Ⅱ灌浆压水测控系统成功地实现了压力、流量、水灰比三参数的过程动态检测．为保证灌浆记录仪的测量精度，必须做好仪器的校定和随机误差的统计学处理，即：(1)通过严格的出厂标定检验和灌浆现场定期的现场校验试验可基本消除灌浆记录仪的系统误差．(2)对灌浆自动记录仪各参数的现场检测数据进行随机误差的统计学分析，确定其数据的可信度，并不断根据分析结果采取更合理的技术措施是减小测量随机误差的必然途径。     

Predicting Peak Flows in Real Time through Event Based Hydrologic Modeling for a Trans-Boundary River Catchment

Investigating the hydrological response of an area to adverse climate changes and extreme rainfall events is crucial for managing land and water resources and mitigating the natural hazards like floods. Limited availability of the in situ data, especially in case of Transboundary Rivers, further highlights the need to develop and evaluate decision support systems which may predict the flows in real time using open source rainfall data. This paper presents the study conducted in Chenab River catchment, Pakistan, to develop and evaluate a hydrologic model using HEC-HMS for predicting flows based on TRMM rainfall data. The catchment was analyzed for hydro-morphological properties using SRTM DEM in HEC-GeoHMS. To rely on open source data as much as possible, digital soil map of the world developed by FAO and global land cover map developed by European Space Agency were utilized to compute Curve Number grid data for the catchment. These preliminary data analyses were employed to set initial values of different parameters to be used for model calibration. The model was calibrated for five rainfall events occurred in the rainy seasons of 2006, 2010 and 2013. The calibrated model was then validated for four other rainfall events of similar type in the same years. Consistency in simulated and observed flows was found with percent difference in volume ranging from ?6.17 % to 5.47 % and percent difference in peak flows to be in the range of 6.96 % to 7.28 %. Values of Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency were ranging from 0.299 to 0.909 with an average value of 0.586 for all flow events. The model was found well capable of capturing the hydrologic response of the catchment due to rainfall events and can be helpful in providing alerts of peak flows in real time based on real time/forecasted rainfall data.     

基于雨量测站应急机制的洪水预报方法

为提高洪水预报方案的容错能力,改善雨量资料缺测或粗差情况下的预报效果,提出了基于雨量测站应急机制的洪水预报方法。通过构建测站降雨相似度矩阵(SRSM),量化表示测站间实测降雨的相似性。在此基础上,采用有限测站相似度加权法及时合理替换问题雨量资料,然后将处理后的雨量信息代入系统进行计算,从而保证洪水预报的及时性,同时改善预报效果,降低了预报方案对资料的敏感性。将该方法应用于上犹江流域,结果显示:对于典型洪水(洪号20010611),一般预报方法的洪峰、洪量预报误差分别为-24.8%、-6.3%。采用应急预报方法后,洪峰、洪量预报误差减小到-10.6%、1.3%。在雨量资料缺测情况下,对于流域的10场历史洪水,洪峰、洪量平均预报误差从18.3%、18.2%降为6.0%、6.7%,合格率从40%上升为100%。结果表明,基于雨量测站应急机制的洪水预报方法模拟效果明显优于一般预报方法,能够考虑实际应用中的突发情况,有效提高了洪水预报精度,保证了预报的及时性,改善了预报方案的容错能力,值得进一步研究与推广。     

雷达测雨在水文学中的应用--影响预报精度的因素分析

雷达测雨的误差以及水文模型自身的结构和尺度问题等的复杂性，导致了水文预报的精度不理想、这在一定程度上阻碍了雷达测雨技术在水文学中的应用、文中在回顾雷达测雨技术在水文学中已发挥的重要作用的同时，着重对预报精度影响较大的若干因素进行探讨和分析，并就将来雷达测雨技术更好地应用于水文学的研究提出几点建议．     

某土石坝帷幕灌浆渗流监测成果分析

为研究土石坝帷幕灌浆的渗控效果,了解加固后渗压水位的变化规律,针对某黏土心墙坝,采用逐步回归分析和有限元分析方法,对3年来的监测成果进行了分析。逐步回归分析表明：影响坝体渗流场的主要因素是库水位、降雨及时效;往背水方向,库水位的影响程度逐渐减弱,而降雨及时效的影响程度逐渐增强。有限元计算表明：全封闭式帷幕灌浆使大坝渗漏量减小了37.6%,而悬挂式帷幕灌浆只减小了10.7%,全封闭式帷幕灌浆的渗控效果更为显著。     

提高渠道糙率率定精度的方法

渠道糙率的现场率定是水力学研究的重要课题.由于水力量测时流量和水深测量值不可避免的会存在随机误差,如何减少测量误差对糙率率定的影响是必须解决的关键问题.在系统研究了测量误差、渠长及雍水对糙率率定误差影响的基础上,给出了计算渠道糙率率定误差的简化公式,提出了减小糙率率定误差的方法:1)使渠道进出口目测水深(水位)具有相同方向误差;2)合理的布设渠道测点;3)控制闸门开度减少渠道雍水坡度,另外,尽可能在设计等大流量工况率定糙率,因为这些工况雍水坡度较小.     

Quality evaluation methods for wastewater treatment plant data.

Non identified systematic errors in data sets can cause severe problems inducing wrong decisions in function control, process modelling or planning of new treatment infrastructure. In this paper statistical methods are shown to identify systematic errors in full-scale WWTP data sets. With a redundant mass balance approach analyzing five different mass balances, systematic errors of about 10%-20% compared to the input fluxes can be identified at a 5%-significance level. A Shewhart control-chart approach to survey the data quality of on-line-sensors allows a statistical as well as a fast graphical analysis of the measurement process. A 19 month data set indicates that NO(3) (-), PO(4) (-) and NH(4) (-) on-line analyzers in the filter effluent and MLSS sensors in the aeration tanks were not disturbed by any systematic error for 85-95% of the measuring time. The in-control-interval (+/-3.standard deviation) has a width of +/-12-17% (NO(3)-N), +/-35-40% (PO(4)-P), +/-83% (NH(4)-N) and +/-12-15% (TS) of the measured reference value.     

翻斗式雨量计翻斗旋转时间特性分析

在翻斗式雨量计的研究中,由于翻斗旋转速度较快,造成翻斗旋转时间的测量一直以来都是一个难点。利用图像处理中的帧间差分法,结合Matlab软件编程,提出了一种新的翻斗旋转时间测量方法。在此基础上,将该方法应用于4种常用的翻斗式雨量计,在不同的雨强尺度下分别进行试验研究,分析翻斗旋转的时间特性。结果表明:（1）试验中使用的4种单层翻斗式雨量计的翻斗旋转时间在小雨强下不稳定,波动较大;在大雨强下较为稳定,波动较小。（2）JDZ02和CQS·JD02的翻斗旋转时间随雨强的增大而减小,呈较好的线性关系,R2分别为0.99和0.86;JDZ05和CQS·JD05的线性关系不明显,R2均小于0.6。（3）引入数字图像处理中的帧间差分法可以有效获取翻斗旋转的时间特性,并加深对翻斗雨量计的认识。     

Statistical evaluation and optimisation of stormwater quality monitoring programmes.

This paper reports on a statistical review of a water quality monitoring programme aimed at estimating long-term pollutant loads discharged from waterways in and around Melbourne, Australia. Performance of the current programme was evaluated with respect to the required level of uncertainty to meet management objectives. Use of continuously measured turbidity was found to be an effective surrogate measure for estimating TSS, with errors in long-term load estimates of less than 5%. Where routine grab sampling was used instead, errors increased with sampling interval; a 3-day interval was required to maintain errors within 10% of the continuously measured load. For storm event sampling, auto-samplers were found not to be required, if only long-term load estimates are required. The importance of eliminating systematic errors, by ensuring frequent calibration and data verification, was demonstrated.     

Impact of dimension uncertainty and model calibration on sewer system assessment.

Assessments of sewer performance are usually based on a single computation of CSO (combined sewer overflow) volumes using a time series of rainfall as system loads. A shortcoming of this method is that uncertainties in knowledge of sewer system dimensions are not taken into account. Moreover, sewer models are rarely calibrated. This paper presents the impacts of database errors and model calibration on return periods of calculated CSO volumes. The impact of uncertainties is illustrated with two examples. Variability of calculated CSO volumes is estimated using Monte Carlo simulations. The results show that calculated CSO volumes vary considerably due to database errors, especially uncertain dimensions of the catchment area. Furthermore, event-based calibration of a sewer model does not result in more reliable predictions because the calibrated parameters have low portability. However, it enables removal of database errors harmonising model predictions and 'reality'.     

渠道糙率率定误差分析

本文研究了渠道糙率率定误差与水力测量误差的函数关系。根据水力学原理,提出了计算渠道糙率率定误差的公式,然后计算分析了南水北调中线京石段应急供水工程实测流量、水深误差产生的渠道糙率率定的误差.得到重要结论:(1)微小的水力测量误差可能产生较大的渠道糙率率定误差,现有南水北调中线典型渠道原型观测糙率误差可达11%;(2)糙率的流量误差分量相对值与流量测量误差基本相同;(3)糙率的进出口水深误差分量绝对值非常接近,两者绝对值大小不仅与水深测量误差成正比,而且与渠道长度有关,当渠道过短时,糙率的水深误差分量将成倍增加。     

数值集合降雨预测的校正后处理方法研究

利用2017年4月1日-9月30日全球集合预测系统的降雨预测数据和雅砻江流域气象站点的降雨观测数据,采用基于左删失广义极值分布的集合模式输出统计方法对流域内降雨预测进行校正,对比分析该方法两种建模形式在校正结果上的差异。结果表明：采用集合成员均值校正的方式可以有效改善原始预测对于降雨过分高估的问题,其预测结果明显优于采用集合成员校正方式的预测结果,后者由于模型参数增加而出现过度拟合问题,限制了其在雅砻江流域中的应用。另外采用集合成员均值校正方式的预测结果的准确性在不同流域范围存在明显差异并倾向低估流域内较大降雨量,因此在后续的研究中需要进一步针对该方法无法对极值降雨量进行准确预测的问题进行改进。     

新型浮子式水位计的研制与应用

为解决目前传统浮子式水位计受水位波动影响易打滑、自身系统误差大、使用不便等问题,设计了一种新型浮子式水位计.新型浮子式水位计机械部分采用上下轮的封闭式结构,改进浮筒与重锤的设计,降低测绳与转轮打滑的可能性,提高了测量准确性;电路部分采用光电编码器,及以低功耗单片机 MSP430F247为基础的水位数据采集装置,为用户提供了方便的人机接口及丰富的通信方式,进一步提高了产品的实用性.     

Streamflow Response to Climate Change in the Brahmani River Basin,India

Climate change can significantly affect the water resources availability by resulting changes in hydrological cycle. Hydrologic models are usually used to predict the impacts of landuse and climate changes and to evaluate the management strategies. In this study, impacts of climate change on streamflow of the Brahmani River basin were assessed using Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) run under the platform of Modular Modeling System (MMS). The plausible hypothetical scenarios of rainfall and temperature changes were used to assess the sensitivity of streamflow to changed climatic condition. The PRMS model was calibrated and validated for the study area. Model performance was evaluated by using joint plots of daily and monthly observed and simulated runoff hydrographs and different statistical indicators. Daily observed and simulated hydrographs showed a reasonable agreement for calibration as well as validation periods. The modeling efficiency (E) varied in the range of 0.69 to 0.93 and 0.85 to 0.95 for the calibration and validation periods, respectively. Simulation studies with temperature rise of 2 and 4°C indicated 6 and 11% decrease in annual streamflow, respectively. However, there is about 62% increase in annual streamflow under the combined effect of 4°C temperature rise and 30% rainfall increase (T4P30). The results of the scenario analysis showed that the basin is more sensitive to changes in rainfall as compared to changes in temperature.     

Hydrological assessment of TRMM rainfall data over Yangtze River Basin

High-quality rainfall information is critical for accurate simulation of runoff and water cycle processes on the land surface. In situ monitoring of rainfall has a very limited utility at the regional and global scale because of the high temporal and spatial variability of rainfall. As a step toward overcoming this problem, microwave remote sensing observations can be used to retrieve the temporal and spatial rainfall coverage because of their global availability and frequency of measurement. This paper addresses the question of whether remote sensing rainfall estimates over a catchment can be used for water balance computations in the distributed hydrological model. The TRMM 3B42V6 rainfall product was introduced into the hydrological cycle simulation of the Yangtze River Basin in South China. A tool was developed to interpolate the rain gauge observations at the same temporal and spatial resolution as the TRMM data and then evaluate the precision of TRMM 3B42V6 data from 1998 to 2006. It shows that the TRMM 3B42V6 rainfall product was reliable and had good precision in application to the Yangtze River Basin. The TRMM 3B42V6 data slightly overestimated rainfall during the wet season and underestimated rainfall during the dry season in the Yangtze River Basin. Results suggest that the TRMM 3B42V6 rainfall product can be used as an alternative data source for large-scale distributed hydrological models.     

Short Duration Rainfall Extremes in Ireland: Influence of Climatic Variability

A widely-noted change in the North Atlantic circulation in the 1970s affected the spatial distribution and seasonal pattern of rainfall over Ireland. To examine if this was accompanied by a change on short duration precipitation extremes, multi-decadal time series from the second half of the twentieth century of thirteen hourly precipitation stations in Ireland have been analysed for the occurrence of extreme values over several durations of up to 24 h. Strong evidence was found for a change since the late 1970s in short duration rainfall depths, particularly in the west of the country. Precipitation depth-duration-frequency analyses over two sub-periods showed that at several locations, storm event magnitudes which corresponded to a 30 year return period before 1975 had a return period close to 10 years in the post-1975 period. The widespread increase in spring and autumn rainfall and the local increases in the frequencies and magnitudes of severe rainfalls have implications for engineering hydrology, flood risk analysis and water resources management. The necessity of using up-to-date data to derive design storm magnitudes is stressed, due to the possible influence of underlying climatic shifts. Furthermore, as non-stationarity has been demonstrated, the use of long timeseries extending beyond thirty years into the past will result in underestimation of storm intensities in many areas.