Is More Better? Combining Actuarial Risk Scales to Predict Recidivism Among Adult Sex Offenders.

The present study was conducted to determine whether combining the results of multiple actuarial risk scales increases accuracy in predicting sex offender recidivism. Multiple methods of combining 4 validated actuarial risk scales--the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide, the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide, the Rapid Risk Assessment for Sexual Offense Recidivism, and the Static-99--were evaluated in a sample of 215 adult male sex offenders. These included the intuitively appealing believe-the-negative and believe-the-positive rules, adapted from medical decision making; the combination of absolute decision thresholds across a range of cutoff scores; and the statistical optimization methods of logistic regression and principal components analyses. No combination method provided a statistically significant or consistent advantage over the predictive accuracy of the single best actuarial scale. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Men who molest their sexually immature daughters: is a special explanation required?

Child molesters who target their own children have been described as low risk and not pedophilic. Men who had molested a daughter or stepdaughter (n=82) were compared to 102 molesters whose only female victims were extrafamilial. Men who offended against their own daughters had less deviant sexual age preferences and were less likely to commit new violent and sexual offenses. However, the father-daughter molesters exhibited an average absolute phallometric preference for prepubertal children and had a violent recidivism rate of 22% in a follow-up of less than 5 years. Actuarial risk assessment instruments (the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide and the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide; V. L. Quinsey, G. T. Harris, M. E. Rice, and C. A. Cormier, 1998) worked as well for intrafamilial child molesters as for other sex offenders. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Comparing indicators of sexual sadism as predictors of recidivism among adult male sexual offenders.

Objective: In this longitudinal study, the predictive validity of a psychiatric diagnosis of sexual sadism was compared with three behavioral indicators of sadism: index sexual offense violence, sexual intrusiveness, and phallometrically assessed sexual arousal to depictions of sexual or nonsexual violence. Method: Five hundred and eighty six adult male sexual offenders were assessed between 1982 and 1992, and these offenders were followed for up to 20-years postrelease via official criminal records. Assessment information included the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM) diagnosis, offense characteristics, phallometric assessment results, and an actuarial risk measure (the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide). Results: Predictive validity was demonstrated in univariate analyses for the behavioral indicators of sexual sadism (area under the curve [AUCs] from .58 to .62) but not psychiatric diagnosis (AUC = .54). Cox regression analyses revealed that phallometrically assessed sexual arousal to violence was still significantly associated with violent (including sexual) recidivism after actuarially estimated risk to reoffend was controlled. A psychiatric diagnosis of sexual sadism, in contrast, was unrelated to recidivism. Conclusions: The results support the use of more behaviorally operationalized indicators of sexual sadism, especially phallometric assessment of sexual arousal, and suggest the DSM criteria for sexual sadism require further work. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Field validity of the STATIC-99 and MnSOST-R among sex offenders evaluated for civil commitment as sexually violent predators.

Despite their widespread use in forensic and correctional practice, surprisingly little research investigates how well actuarial risk assessment instruments (ARAIs) for sexual offenders work within the contexts where they are routinely applied. We examined the predictive validity (M = 4.77 years follow-up) of the two most widely used ARAIs for sexual offenders, the STATIC-99 and Minnesota Sex Offender Sex Offender Screening Tool–Revised (MnSOST-R), as administered in routine practice among 1,928 offenders screened for possible civil commitment as sexually violent predators. Effect sizes for both ARAIs were lower than in most published research and meta-analytic reviews, although the STATIC-99 was a more consistent predictor of recidivism than the MnSOST-R. Recidivism rates for the STATIC-99 were much closer to those expected based on the 2009 norms than the 2003 norms. Offender characteristics (e.g., age at release, prior arrests, release type) were often as or more effective than ARAIs for predicting recidivism. This study, apparently the largest cross-validation study of popular ARAIs for sex offenders, suggests that the predictive validity of these measures in routine practice in the United States may be poorer than often assumed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

The validity of violence risk estimates: An issue of item performance.

Typically, research conducted on the cross-validation or generalization of risk assessment schemes focuses on the aggregate score accuracy of the schemes within the new sample or population. Often overlooked when the schemes are examined in their aggregate form is the performance of the individual items. This study looks at the association between the items of the HCR-20 (C. D. Webster, K. S. Eaves, D. Douglas, & S. D. Wintrup, 1995) and the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG; C. D. Webster, G. T. Harris, M. E. Rice, C. Cormier, & V. L. Quinsey, 1994) and violent recidivism in a sample of predominantly violent offenders. The results show that a number of the items from each scale do not distinguish between violent recidivists and nonrecidivists and that the presence of these items potentially reduces the predictive accuracy of the instruments. In addition, the inclusion of items that do not discriminate between recidivists and nonrecidivists potentially undermines the validity of the risk assessment process. Discussion centers on the application of prediction schemes and their individual risk factors in forensic practice. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Predictive and incremental validity of the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide scores with male and female jail inmates.

The present study examines the predictive and incremental validity of Violence Risk Appraisal Guide scores in a sample of 328 male and 145 female jail inmates held on felony charges. Significant gender differences were observed in VRAG item and total score means, as well as in correlations between the VRAG and concurrent measures of aggression. VRAG scores significantly predicted institutional misconduct during incarceration and recidivism in the first year postrelease for male inmates but not for female inmates. In terms of incremental validity, VRAG scores predicted institutional misconduct and recidivism beyond that accounted for by psychopathy for male inmates but not for female inmates. Implications for clinical practice and future research are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2011 APA, all rights reserved)     

Therapeutic responses of psychopathic sexual offenders: Treatment attrition, therapeutic change, and long-term recidivism.

The authors examined the therapeutic responses of psychopathic sex offenders (≥25 Psychopathy Checklist—Revised; PCL–R) in terms of treatment dropout and therapeutic change, as well as sexual and violent recidivism over a 10-year follow-up among 156 federally incarcerated sex offenders treated in a high-intensity inpatient sex offender program. Psychopathy and sex offender risk/treatment change were assessed using the PCL–R and the Violence Risk Scale—Sexual Offender version (VRS–SO), respectively. Although psychopathic participants were more likely than their nonpsychopathic counterparts (     

The validity and reliability of the Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offender version: Assessing sex offender risk and evaluating therapeutic change.

The Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offender version (VRS-SO) is a rating scale designed to assess risk and predict sexual recidivism, to measure and link treatment changes to sexual recidivism, and to inform the delivery of sexual offender treatment. The VRS-SO comprises 7 static and 17 dynamic items empirically or conceptually linked to sexual recidivism. Dynamic items with higher ratings identify treatment targets linked to sexual offending. A modified stages of change model assesses the offender's treatment readiness and change. File-based VRS-SO ratings were completed on 321 sex offenders followed up an average of 10 years postrelease. VRS-SO scores predicted sexual and nonsexual violent recidivism postrelease and demonstrated acceptable interrater reliability and concurrent validity. A factor analysis of the dynamic items generated 3 factors labeled Sexual Deviance, Criminality, and Treatment Responsivity, all of which predicted sexual recidivism and were differentially associated with different sex offender types. The dynamic items together made incremental contributions to sexual recidivism prediction after static risk was controlled for. Positive changes in the dynamic items, measured at pre- and posttreatment, were significantly related to reductions in sexual recidivism after risk and follow-up time were controlled for, suggesting that dynamic items are indeed dynamic or changeable in nature. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Treatment gain for sexual offenders against children predicts reduced recidivism: A comparative validity study.

Objective: To determine whether pro-social treatment change in sexual offenders would predict reductions in recidivism beyond static and dynamic risk factors measured at pretreatment and whether different methods for assessing change based on self-reports and structured clinical rating systems would show convergent validity. Method: We compared 3 methods for assessing treatment change with a sample of adult male sexual offenders against children (n = 218) who completed a prison-based cognitive–behavioral treatment program between 1993 and 2000. The methods were measures of change derived from offender self-reports on a psychometric battery administered both pre- and posttreatment, change across treatment on the Violence Risk Scale: Sexual Offender Version (VRS:SO; Olver, Wong, Nicholaichuk, & Gordon, 2007), and posttreatment ratings on the Standard Goal Attainment Scaling for Sex Offenders (SGAS; Hogue, 1994). Offenders were followed up for an average of 12.24 years after release. Results: All measures of treatment gain were positively correlated, and all significantly predicted reductions in sexual recidivism, with values for the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve ranging from .66 (SGAS) to .70 (VRS:SO). Survival analyses showed that measures of change based on the psychometric battery significantly predicted recidivism after controlling for both static and dynamic factors measured at pretreatment, while results for the VRS:SO were similar but failed to reach significance. Conclusions: Measures of treatment change based on offender self-reports and structured clinical rating systems show convergent and predictive validity, which suggests that effective treatment that targets dynamic risk factors leads to a reduction in sexual recidivism. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2011 APA, all rights reserved)     

Predicting future reconviction in offenders with intellectual disabilities: The predictive efficacy of VRAG, PCL-SV, and the HCR-20.

Accurate predictions of future reconviction, including those for violent crimes, have been shown to be greatly aided by the use of formal risk assessment instruments. However, it is unclear as to whether these instruments would also be predictive in a sample of offenders with intellectual disabilities. In this study, the authors have shown that the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (V. L. Quinsey, G. T. Harris, M. E. Rice, & C. Cormier, 1998); the Psychopathy Checklist--Screening Version (S. D. Hart, D. N. Cox, & R. D. Hare, 1995); and the History, Clinical, Risk Management--20 (C. D. Webster, K. S. Douglas, D. Eaves, & S. D. Hart, 1997) were all significant predictors of violent and general reconviction in this sample, and in many cases, their efficacy was greater than in a control sample of mentally disordered offenders without an intellectual disability. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

An examination of the Sex Offender Registration and Notification Act as applied to juveniles: Evaluating the ability to predict sexual recidivism.

The recently enacted Adam Walsh Child Protection and Safety Act will expand and standardize the registration of adolescent sex offenders. To evaluate the effectiveness of this and similar legislation, the authors assessed 91 juvenile males who had been adjudicated for a sexual felony offense and 174 juvenile males who had no history of sexual offending with several risk measures. On admission to treatment, all participants were assessed with the Psychopathy Checklist: Youth Version (PCL:YV; A. E. Forth, D. Kosson, & R. D. Hare, 2003). The Juvenile Sex Offender Assessment Protocol-II (J-SOAP-II; R. A. Prentky & S. Righthand, 2003), 3 state-developed risk protocols (from Wisconsin, Texas, and New Jersey), and the tier designation embedded in the federal Sex Offender Registration and Notification Act of 2006 (SORNA) were coded from the sex offender participants' records. Participants were followed for an average of 71.6 months (SD = 18.1 months) to determine charges for general, violent, and sexual offenses. Results showed inconsistencies in risk designations between the J-SOAP-II, SORNA tier, and state risk measures, and none, except for the PCL:YV, significantly predicted new general, violent, or sexual offense charges. Policy and legal implications concerning the assessment of adolescent sex offenders are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Predicting relapse: A meta-analysis of sexual offender recidivism studies.

Evidence from 61 follow-up studies was examined to identify the factors most strongly related to recidivism among sexual offenders. On average, the sexual offense recidivism rate was low (13.4%; n?=?23,393). There were, however, subgroups of offenders who recidivated at high rates. Sexual offense recidivism was best predicted by measures of sexual deviancy (e.g., deviant sexual preferences, prior sexual offenses) and, to a lesser extent, by general criminological factors (e.g., age, total prior offenses). Those offenders who failed to complete treatment were at higher risk for reoffending than those who completed treatment. The predictors of nonsexual violent recidivism and general (any) recidivism were similar to those predictors found among nonsexual criminals (e.g., prior violent offenses, age, juvenile delinquency). Our results suggest that applied risk assessments of sexual offenders should consider separately the offender's risk for sexual and nonsexual recidivism. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

The Characteristics of Persistent Sexual Offenders: A Meta-Analysis of Recidivism Studies.

A meta-analysis of 82 recidivism studies (1,620 findings from 29,450 sexual offenders) identified deviant sexual preferences and antisocial orientation as the major predictors of sexual recidivism for both adult and adolescent sexual offenders. Antisocial orientation was the major predictor of violent recidivism and general (any) recidivism. The review also identified some dynamic risk factors that have the potential of being useful treatment targets (e.g., sexual preoccupations, general self-regulation problems). Many of the variables commonly addressed in sex offender treatment programs (e.g., psychological distress, denial of sex crime, victim empathy, stated motivation for treatment) had little or no relationship with sexual or violent recidivism. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Gender differences in structured risk assessment: Comparing the accuracy of five instruments.

Structured risk assessment should guide clinical risk management, but it is uncertain which instrument has the highest predictive accuracy among men and women. In the present study, the authors compared the Psychopathy Checklist—Revised (PCL–R; R. D. Hare, 1991, 2003); the Historical, Clinical, Risk Management–20 (HCR-20; C. D. Webster, K. S. Douglas, D. Eaves, & S. D. Hart, 1997); the Risk Matrix 2000–Violence (RM2000[V]; D. Thornton et al., 2003); the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG; V. L. Quinsey, G. T. Harris, M. E. Rice, & C. A. Cormier, 1998); the Offenders Group Reconviction Scale (OGRS; J. B. Copas & P. Marshall, 1998; R. Taylor, 1999); and the total previous convictions among prisoners, prospectively assessed prerelease. The authors compared predischarge measures with subsequent offending and instruments ranked using multivariate regression. Most instruments demonstrated significant but moderate predictive ability. The OGRS ranked highest for violence among men, and the PCL–R and HCR-20 H subscale ranked highest for violence among women. The OGRS and total previous acquisitive convictions demonstrated greatest accuracy in predicting acquisitive offending among men and women. Actuarial instruments requiring no training to administer performed as well as personality assessment and structured risk assessment and were superior among men for violence. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Long-term recidivism of child molesters.

Examined the long-term recidivism rates of 197 child molesters released from prison between 1958 and 1974. Overall, 42% of the total sample were reconvicted for sexual crimes, violent crimes, or both, with 10% of the total sample reconvicted 10–31 yrs after being released. Incest offenders were reconvicted at a slower rate than were offenders who selected only boys, with offenders against girls showing a rate intermediate between these 2 groups. Other factors associated with increased recidivism were (1) never being married and (2) previous sexual offenses. None of the mental health and personality tests used in this study (e.g., the Eysenck Personality Inventory and the MMPI) was significantly associated with recidivism. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

A person-oriented perspective on sexual offenders, offending trajectories, and risk of recidivism: A new challenge for policymakers, risk assessors, and actuarial prediction?

Current risk assessment tools are embedded in a variable-oriented perspective and based on the assumption that the risk of reoffending is linear, additive, and relatively stable over time. As a result, actuarial instruments tend to overestimate the risk of violent/sexual recidivism for some sex offenders while underestimating this risk for others. One of the main causes of such predictive inaccuracies is the inability of current actuarial tools to account for the dynamic aspects of offending trajectories over time. Using a person-oriented approach, the current study examined the presence of offending trajectories in sex offenders using measures of offending at multiple time points in adulthood to examine the risk of violent/sexual reoffending. The study was based on a sample of 246 adult males convicted of a sexual offense between 1994 and 1998. Group-based modeling was used to identify offending trajectories, while Cox proportional hazard was used to examine the links between the identified trajectories and recidivism. Findings suggest that a sex crime is more reflective of a transitory phase of the criminal career rather than evidence of a “sexual criminal career” in the making. The findings challenge underlying assumptions of current actuarial tools and calls for a more sophisticated approach to risk assessment that accounts for offending patterns. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2011 APA, all rights reserved)     

Criminological predictors of recidivism in a sexual offender population.

In the present study, the utility of criminological variables as predictors of recidivism was investigated among 342 male sexual offenders. A multivariate regression analysis indicated that arrests for sexual offenses against adults were associated with arrests for sexual re-offenses against adults and with nonsexual violent re-arrests. Sexual-re-offense specialization was observed among sexual offenders with adult and with child victims. Although many of the relations were statistically significant, the magnitude of these relations does not warrant the sole use of criminological variables for decisions regarding individual sexual offenders. (4 ref) (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

"Violent recidivism: Assessing predictive validity": Correction to Rice and Harris (1995).

Reports an error in "Violent recidivism: Assessing predictive validity" by Marnie E. Rice and Grant T. Harris (Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 1995[Oct], Vol 63[5], 737-748). In this article, several errors are present on pp. 738 and 746. The corrections are listed in the erratum. (The following abstract of the original article appeared in record 1996-04934-001.) Until very recently, there has been little evidence of the ability of either clinicians or actuarial instruments to predict violent behavior. Moreover, a confusing variety of measures have been proposed for the evaluation of the accuracy of predictions. This report demonstrates that receiver operating characteristics (ROCs) have advantages over other measures inasmuch as they are simultaneously independent of the base rate for violence in the populations studied and of the particular cutoff score chosen to classify cases as likely to be violent. In an illustration of the value of this approach, the base rates of violence were altered with the use of data from 3.5-, 6-, and 10-year follow-ups of 799 previously violent men. Base rates for the 10-year follow-up were also altered by changing the definition of violent recidivism and by examining a high-risk subgroup. The report also shows how ROC methods can be used to compare the performance of different instruments for the prediction of violence. The report illustrates how ROCs facilitate decisions about whether, at a particular base rate, the use of a prediction instrument is warranted. Finally, some of the limitations of ROCs are outlined, and some cautionary remarks are made with regard to their use. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

The Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth as a predictor of recidivism in a United Kingdom cohort of adolescent offenders with conduct disorder.

This prospective study examined the predictive validity of the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY) and the Psychopathy Checklist: Youth Version (PCL: YV) in 99 male adolescents who were assessed in custody and followed up 12 months post release. Outcome data on recidivism were based on official Home Office records. The base rates for violent and general recidivism, respectively, were 38.4% and 70.7%. The predictive validity of the SAVRY Risk Total and the SAVRY Risk Rating was moderate for both violent and general recidivism, but both showed incremental validity in predicting outcomes compared with the PCL: YV. Data are discussed in relation to the limited published international literature. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Does a watched pot boil? A time-series analysis of New York State's sex offender registration and notification law.

Despite the fact that the federal and many state governments have enacted registration and community notification laws as a means to better protect communities from sexual offending, limited empirical research has been conducted to examine the impact of such legislation on public safety. Therefore, utilizing time-series analyses, this study examined differences in sexual offense arrest rates before and after the enactment of New York State's Sex Offender Registration Act. Results provide no support for the effectiveness of registration and community notification laws in reducing sexual offending by: (a) rapists, (b) child molesters, (c) sexual recidivists, or (d) first-time sex offenders. Analyses also showed that over 95% of all sexual offense arrests were committed by first-time sex offenders, casting doubt on the ability of laws that target repeat offenders to meaningfully reduce sexual offending. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)