Fuzzy R&D portfolio selection of interdependent projects

Global competition of markets has forced firms to invest in targeted R&D projects so that resources can be focused on successful outcomes. A number of options are encountered to select the most appropriate projects in an R&D project portfolio selection problem. The selection is complicated by many factors, such as uncertainty, interdependences between projects, risk and long lead time, that are difficult to measure. Our main concern is how to deal with the uncertainty and interdependences in project portfolio selection when evaluating or estimating future cash flows. This paper presents a fuzzy multi-objective programming approach to facilitate decision making in the selection of R&D projects. Here, we present a fuzzy tri-objective R&D portfolio selection problem which maximizes the outcome and minimizes the cost and risk involved in the problem under the constraints on resources, budget, interdependences, outcome, projects occurring only once, and discuss how our methodology can be used to make decision support tools for optimal R&D project selection in a corporate environment. A case study is provided to illustrate the proposed method where the solution is done by genetic algorithm (GA) as well as by multiple objective genetic algorithm (MOGA).     

Drivers' Mental Representation of Travel Time and Departure Time Choice in Uncertain Traffic Network Conditions

The decisions drivers make, such as choice of route or departure time, constitute typical decision making under uncertainty. Drivers' decision making has been studied within the framework of expected utility theory. However, empirical decisional phenomena violating the premise of expected utility theory have been observed repeatedly. These findings have indicated that decision making is critically affected by the decision frame. It has also been pointed out that the uncertainty of outcome is perceived as an interval of possible resultant values. Based on these findings, we propose hypotheses that: (1) a driver perceives an uncertain travel time as an interval, and (2) a driver decides on a departure time based on a decision frame edited by this interval. To test these hypotheses, we collected data on drivers' departure time choice behavior, n = 335. Decisional phenomena found in this study confirm our hypotheses.     

A bi-level programming framework for identifying optimal parameters in portfolio selection

This paper addresses the problem of identifying optimal portfolio parameters in nonsparse and sparse models. Generally, using the sample estimates to construct a mean–variance portfolio often leads to undesirable portfolio performance. We propose a novel bi-level programming framework to identify the optimal values of expected return and cardinality, which can be estimated separately or simultaneously. In the general formulation of our approach, outer-level is designed to maximize the utility of the portfolio, which is measured by Sharpe ratio, while the inner-level is to minimize the risk of a portfolio under a given expected return. Considering the nonconvex and nonsmooth characteristics of the outer-level, we develop a hybrid derivative-free optimization algorithm embedded with alternating direction method of multipliers to solve the problem. Numerical experiments are carried out based on both simulated and real-life data. During the process, we give a prior range of cardinality using the data-driven method to promote the efficiency. Estimating the parameters by our approach achieves better performance both in the stock and fund-of-funds markets. Moreover, we also demonstrate that our results are robust when the risk is measured by conditional value-at-risk.     

Fuzzy mean–variance–skewness portfolio selection models by interval analysis

In portfolio selection problem, the expected return, risk, liquidity etc. cannot be predicted precisely. The investor generally makes his portfolio decision according to his experience and his economic wisdom. So, deterministic portfolio selection is not a good choice for the investor. In most of the recent works on this problem, fuzzy set theory is widely used to model the problem in uncertain environments. This paper utilizes the concept of interval numbers in fuzzy set theory to extend the classical mean–variance (MV) portfolio selection model into mean–variance–skewness (MVS) model with consideration of transaction cost. In addition, some other criteria like short and long term returns, liquidity, dividends, number of assets in the portfolio and the maximum and minimum allowable capital invested in stocks of any selected company are considered. Three different models have been proposed by defining the future financial market optimistically, pessimistically and in the combined form to model the fuzzy MVS portfolio selection problem. In order to solve the models, fuzzy simulation (FS) and elitist genetic algorithm (EGA) are integrated to produce a more powerful and effective hybrid intelligence algorithm (HIA). Finally, our approaches are tested on a set of stock data from Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE).     

具有不确定收益的新的投资组合优化模型的研究

解决了具有不确定收益的投资组合问题。从一个新的视角给出了不确定投资组合的风险定义,在此基础上,提出了新的投资组合优化模型,并设计出新的混合智能算法来解决这一新的优化问题。在新的算法中,99方法被用来计算期望值和机会值,与之前的算法相比,大大减少了计算的工作量,加快了求解过程。最后,提出一个数值例子来验证新的优化模型和所提算法的可行性和正确性。     

Robust optimization framework for cardinality constrained portfolio problem

One of the primary concerns on any asset allocation problem is to maintain a limited number of assets from the market. The problem becomes more complicated when the return of all risky assets are subject to uncertainty. In this paper, we propose a new portfolio modeling approach with uncertain data and it is also analyzed using different robust optimization techniques. The proposed formulations are solved using genetic algorithm. The implementation of the proposed method is examined on variety of well known benchmark data sets.     

风险效用投资组合模型的遗传算法求解

给出一个折衷考虑风险最小化和收益最大化的单目标决策方法,以单位风险收益最大化为决策目标建立了投资组合的非线性分式规划模型,考虑到分式规划问题的求解难度,利用遗传算法求解模型,并给出算法步骤。最后,给出了数值算例,结果表明该算法是简单有效的。     

Uncertain programming models for portfolio selection with uncertain returns

In an indeterminacy economic environment, experts’ knowledge about the returns of securities consists of much uncertainty instead of randomness. This paper discusses portfolio selection problem in uncertain environment in which security returns cannot be well reflected by historical data, but can be evaluated by the experts. In the paper, returns of securities are assumed to be given by uncertain variables. According to various decision criteria, the portfolio selection problem in uncertain environment is formulated as expected-variance-chance model and chance-expected-variance model by using the uncertainty programming. Within the framework of uncertainty theory, for the convenience of solving the models, some crisp equivalents are discussed under different conditions. In addition, a hybrid intelligent algorithm is designed in the paper to provide a general method for solving the new models in general cases. At last, two numerical examples are provided to show the performance and applications of the models and algorithm.     

Portfolio selection with the effect of systematic risk diversification: formulation and accelerated gradient algorithm

In this paper, we propose an optimal trade-off model for portfolio selection with the effect of systematic risk diversification, measured by the maximum marginal systematic risk of all the risk contributors. First, the classical portfolio selection model with constraints on allocation of systematic risk is shown to be equivalent to our trade-off model under certain conditions. Then, we transform the trade-off model into a special non-convex and non-smooth composite problem equivalently. Thus a modified accelerated gradient (AG) algorithm can be introduced to solve the composite problem. The efficiency of the algorithm for solving the composite problem is demonstrated by theoretical results on both the convergence rate and the iteration complexity bound. Finally, empirical analysis demonstrates that the proposed model is a preferred tool for active portfolio risk management when compared with the existing models. We also carry out a series of numerical experiments to compare the performance of the modified AG algorithm with the other three first-order algorithms.     

Discovering admissibleWeb services with uncertain QoS

Open and dynamic environments lead to inherent uncertainty of Web service QoS (Quality of Service), and the QoS-aware service selection problem can be looked upon as a decision problem under uncertainty. We use an empirical distribution function to describe the uncertainty of scores obtained from historical transactions. We then propose an approach to discovering the admissible set of services including alternative services that are not dominated by any other alternatives according to the expected utility criterion. Stochastic dominance (SD) rules are used to compare two services with uncertain scores regardless of the distribution form of their uncertain scores. By using the properties of SD rules, an algorithm is developed to reduce the number of SD tests, by which the admissible services can be reported progressively. We prove that the proposed algorithm can be run on partitioned or incremental alternative services. Moreover, we achieve some useful theoretical conclusions for correct pruning of unnecessary calculations and comparisons in each SD test, by which the efficiency of the SD tests can be improved. We make a comprehensive experimental study using real datasets to evaluate the effectiveness, efficiency, and scalability of the proposed algorithm.     

Mean-variance model for portfolio optimization with background risk based on uncertainty theory

The aim of this paper is to develop a mean-variance model for portfolio optimization considering the background risk, liquidity and transaction cost based on uncertainty theory. In portfolio selection problem, returns of securities and assets liquidity are assumed as uncertain variables because of incidents or lacking of historical data, which are common in economic and social environment. We provide crisp forms of the model and a hybrid intelligent algorithm to solve it. Under a mean-variance framework, we analyze the portfolio frontier characteristic considering independently additive background risk. In addition, we discuss some effects of background risk and liquidity constraint on the portfolio selection. Finally, we demonstrate the proposed models by numerical simulations.     

Simultaneous resource portfolio planning under demand and technology uncertainty in the semiconductor testing industry

One of the most challenging issues for the semiconductor testing industry is how to deal with capacity planning and resource allocation simultaneously under demand and technology uncertainty. In addition, capacity planners require a tradeoff among the costs of resources with different processing technologies, while simultaneously considering resources to manufacture products. The need for exploring better solutions further increases the complexity of the problem. This study focuses on the decisions pertaining to (i) the simultaneous resource portfolio/investment and allocation plan accounting for the hedging tradeoff between the expected profit and risk, (ii) the most profitable orders from pending ones in each time bucket under demand and technology uncertainty, (iii) the algorithm to efficiently solve the stochastic and mixed integer programming problem. Due to the high computational complexity of the problem, this study develops a constraint-satisfaction based genetic algorithm, in conjunction with a chromosome-repair mechanism and sampling procedure, to resolve the above issues simultaneously. The experimental results indicate that the proposed mathematical model can accurately represent the resource portfolio planning problem of the semiconductor testing industry, and the solution algorithm can solve the problem efficiently.     

A memetic algorithm for cardinality-constrained portfolio optimization with transaction costs

A memetic approach that combines a genetic algorithm (GA) and quadratic programming is used to address the problem of optimal portfolio selection with cardinality constraints and piecewise linear transaction costs. The framework used is an extension of the standard Markowitz mean–variance model that incorporates realistic constraints, such as upper and lower bounds for investment in individual assets and/or groups of assets, and minimum trading restrictions. The inclusion of constraints that limit the number of assets in the final portfolio and piecewise linear transaction costs transforms the selection of optimal portfolios into a mixed-integer quadratic problem, which cannot be solved by standard optimization techniques. We propose to use a genetic algorithm in which the candidate portfolios are encoded using a set representation to handle the combinatorial aspect of the optimization problem. Besides specifying which assets are included in the portfolio, this representation includes attributes that encode the trading operation (sell/hold/buy) performed when the portfolio is rebalanced. The results of this hybrid method are benchmarked against a range of investment strategies (passive management, the equally weighted portfolio, the minimum variance portfolio, optimal portfolios without cardinality constraints, ignoring transaction costs or obtained with L₁ regularization) using publicly available data. The transaction costs and the cardinality constraints provide regularization mechanisms that generally improve the out-of-sample performance of the selected portfolios.     

一个风险敏感最优控制问题的随机最大值原理及在投资选择中的应用

在本文, 我们主要研究了一类产生于金融市场中投资选择问题的风险敏感最优控制问题. 用经典的凸变分技术, 我们得到了该类问题的最大值原理. 最大值原理的形式相似于风险中性的情形. 但是, 对偶方程和变分不等式明显地依赖于风险敏感参数 γ. 这是与风险中性情形的主要区别之一. 我们用该结果解决一类最优投资选择问题. 在投资者仅投资国内债券和股票的情况下, 前人用贝尔曼动态规划原理所得的最优投资策略仅是我们结果的特殊形式. 我们也给了一些数值算例和图, 他们显式地解释了最大期望效用和模型中参数的关系.     

An optimization model of the portfolio adjusting problem with fuzzy return and a SMO algorithm

Based on possibilistic mean and variance theory, this paper deals with the portfolio adjusting problem for an existing portfolio under the assumption that the returns of risky assets are fuzzy numbers and there exist transaction costs in portfolio adjusting precess. We propose a portfolio optimization model with V-shaped transaction cost which is associated with a shift from the current portfolio to an adjusted one. A sequential minimal optimization (SMO) algorithm is developed for calculating the optimal portfolio adjusting strategy. The algorithm is based on deriving the shortened optimality conditions for the formulation and solving 2-asset sub-problems. Numerical experiments are given to illustrate the application of the proposed model and the efficiency of algorithm. The results also show clearly the influence of the transaction costs in portfolio selection.     

Evolutionary multi-objective optimization algorithms for fuzzy portfolio selection

In this paper, we consider a recently proposed model for portfolio selection, called Mean-Downside Risk-Skewness (MDRS) model. This modelling approach takes into account both the multidimensional nature of the portfolio selection problem and the requirements imposed by the investor. Concretely, it optimizes the expected return, the downside-risk and the skewness of a given portfolio, taking into account budget, bound and cardinality constraints. The quantification of the uncertain future return on a given portfolio is approximated by means of LR-fuzzy numbers, while the moments of its return are evaluated using possibility theory. The main purpose of this paper is to solve the MDRS portfolio selection model as a whole constrained three-objective optimization problem, what has not been done before, in order to analyse the efficient portfolios which optimize the three criteria simultaneously. For this aim, we propose new mutation, crossover and reparation operators for evolutionary multi-objective optimization, which have been specially designed for generating feasible solutions of the cardinality constrained MDRS problem. We incorporate the operators suggested into the evolutionary algorithms NSGAII, MOEA/D and GWASF-GA and we analyse their performances for a data set from the Spanish stock market. The potential of our operators is shown in comparison to other commonly used genetic operators and some conclusions are highlighted from the analysis of the trade-offs among the three criteria.     

考虑投资者心理特征的模糊投资组合优化模型

投资者在实际金融市场中的决策行为往往会受到主观心理认知的影响.考虑参照依赖、敏感性递减和损失厌恶等影响投资决策的心理特征,研究模糊环境下的投资组合选择问题.首先,假设资产的收益为梯形模糊数,依据前景理论中的价值函数,将组合收益转化为体现投资者心理特征的感知价值;然后,以感知价值的可能性均值最大化和可能性下半方差最小化为目标,建立考虑心理特征的模糊投资组合优化模型;接着,为了有效地求解模型,设计一个多种群遗传算法;最后,通过实例分析表明模型和算法的有效性.结果表明,与传统的遗传算法相比,所设计的多种群遗传算法可更有效地求解模型,考虑心理特征的模糊投资组合优化模型能够提升投资者的满意程度,可为实际的投资活动提供决策支持.     

一类国际证券投资组合和消费选择的最优控制问题

首先运用经典动态规划方法,研究股票付息下国际证券市场中一类最优证券投资组合 和消费选择问题,并利用投资学理论对投资者只投资两种证券情形的最优组合给出经济分析和 解释.然后,运用非常简单和直接的方法对两种典型的效用函数给出最优解的显式形式,求解的 技巧来自解决线性二次最优控制问题的配平方法.最后,给出一些数值计算例子来展示各模型参 数对最优选择的影响.     

基于MIC架构稳健投资组合并行算法及实现

投资组合选择是数量化投资管理领域中的一项关键技术,目前其在应用中亟需高性能算法与实现研究。本论文针对现实投资场景下的稳健投资组合选择最优化模型,设计出高效的并行算法,利用并行计算技术多层级优化性能,实现对稳健投资组合计算的快速响应。该稳健投资组合将模糊集理论与投资组合理论相结合,建立基于可能性理论和机会测度的投资组合模型,用BP神经网络算法和遗传算法对模型进行求解,并在最新的高性能计算集成众核(Many Integrated Core,MIC)架构上实现并行。文章选取上证50指数成份股近两年的交易数据,对并行算法及其性能进行分析。结果显示,该算法计算得到的投资组合收益率优于经典模型收益率和上证50指数同期收益率,基于MIC架构的并行求解性能优于传统的CPU架构,平均并行效率达到80%。     

A hybrid algorithm for constrained portfolio selection problems

Since Markowitz’s seminal work on the mean-variance model in modern portfolio theory, many studies have been conducted on computational techniques and recently meta-heuristics for portfolio selection problems. In this work, we propose and investigate a new hybrid algorithm integrating the population based incremental learning and differential evolution algorithms for the portfolio selection problem. We consider the extended mean-variance model with practical trading constraints including the cardinality, floor and ceiling constraints. The proposed hybrid algorithm adopts a partially guided mutation and an elitist strategy to promote the quality of solution. The performance of the proposed hybrid algorithm has been evaluated on the extended benchmark datasets in the OR Library. The computational results demonstrate that the proposed hybrid algorithm is not only effective but also efficient in solving the mean-variance model with real world constraints.