Uncertainty Analysis of a Two-dimensional Hydrodynamic Model

First-Order Second Moment (FOSM) and Monte Carlo analysis were applied to characterize the uncertainty in selected water levels and velocities simulated by a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model of the Upper St. Lawrence River downstream from Lake Ontario. The analysis utilized an application of the Resource Management Associates’ RMA2 model. Both FOSM and Monte Carlo analysis provided similar estimates of uncertainty, with Monte Carlo analysis results being 15% less than FOSM. Based on the findings of this work, the FOSM is preferred. FOSM provides a conservative estimate of the uncertainty and it is simpler to apply than Monte Carlo analysis, requiring less information and fewer model executions. FOSM also provides an immediate indication of the primary contributors to the uncertainty in the output, where Monte Carlo analysis requires additional effort to do the same. Results indicate that the parameter describing bottom resistance using Manning's n contributed more to model uncertainty than other factors investigated. The uncertainty in and sensitivity in Manning's n is large which results in a significant amount of uncertainty in the model outputs is contributed by this parameter. The calculations described in this study show that uncertainty analysis is a practical addition to the two-dimensional hydrodynamic modelling process. It provides insight to the model developer, quantifying how good the model actually is. It also provides a measure of the accuracy of the model for future model developers or clients using hydrodynamic modeling outputs     

MIKE SHE水文模型参数的不确定性研究

为了估测水文模型的不确定性参数特征,更准确地构建水文模型,利用妫水河流域东大桥水文站径流资料,对MIKE SHE模型参数进行了不确定性分析。结果表明:选取的参数中不确定性较大的为水平传导系数、壤中流下渗常量、壤中流给水度、壤中流渗透阈值,不确定性较小的为山林地及平原耕地的饱和渗透系数、蒸散发经验系数;模型模拟结果与实测数据符合较好,校核期有55%的实测数据落入模拟径流量的置信区间内,但模拟精度仍有待提高。     

Reliability analysis for reservoir water supply due to uncertainties in hydrological factors,rainfall-runoff routing and operating rule curves

This study aims at developing a reliability-analysis model (RA_WS_RES) to quantify the effect of variations in uncertainties factors regarding the reservoir inflow and outflow at various 10-day periods on the reliability of water supply from the reservoir. The uncertainty factors considered are classified into three types: the hydrological factors (rainfall, baseflow, and initial water level of the reservoir), the reservoir operation rules for the water-allocation model (RIBASIM), and the parameters of rainfall-runoff model (i.e. Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting, SAC-SMA). In the proposed RA_WS_RES model, the reliability of the water supply attributed to the uncertainty factors considered can be quantified by collaborating the multivariate Monte Carlo simulation (MMCS) methods and uncertainty-risk (advanced first order and second moment, AFOSM) analysis. Shihmen Reservoir watershed in Northern Taiwan is selected as the study area and four associated demand nodes are regarded as the study nodes; the hourly rainfall data from 1987 to 2014 and other hydrological data (i.e. rainfall, baseflow, and initial water level of the reservoir) as well as the operation rule curves are adopted in the model development and application. The results from the numerical experiences indicate that among the uncertainty factors concerned, the average rainfall depth at the current 10-day period and the range between the lower and critical levels are more sensitive to the estimation of water supply from Shihmen Reservoir. Additionally, the impact of variation in baseflow on the reliability of the water supply from Shihmen Reservoir should be taken into account, especially in the dry season. In addition to rainfall and baseflow, the initial water level should be an important source for the water supply, and its effect gradually reduces with the 10-day period. Furthermore, the reliability of water supply is obviously impacted by the uncertainty in the range between the lower and critical rule level, especially in the dry season, due to its range being adversely related with the water supply. Eventually, the proposed RA_WS_RES model can effectively and reasonably quantify the reliability of water supply attributed to variations in uncertainty factors at different 10-day period under the consideration of climate change.     

Circulation and mixing in Sodus Bay due to water exchange with Lake Ontario

Embayments on large lakes may be affected by water exchange with the lake that, in turn, impact water quality in the embayment. In this study we examine the influence of hydrodynamic factors that may play a role in controlling water quality in Sodus Bay, the largest enclosed embayment on the U.S. shoreline of Lake Ontario. The motivation for this study was the occurrence of a blue-green algal (cyanobacterial) bloom in 2010, and the need to understand the factors that influence this and other water quality issues. A hydrodynamic model with high spatial and temporal resolution was applied and calibrated to field data collected in a detailed sampling program in 2013. The model, along with field data collected over several additional years, was then used to develop a comprehensive understanding of the hydrodynamic impacts on physical conditions in the bay. A primary result of this process is a determination of the importance of flow exchange between Lake Ontario and Sodus Bay, particularly during lake upwelling periods that cause colder water to enter the bay as an underflow. Hydrodynamic features identified to have played a potential role in the bloom formation of 2010 include a lake upwelling event, strong stratification, and relatively warm conditions throughout much of the summer. Lack of continuous monitoring in 2010 precludes a specific comparison of the model and data when the bloom formed, but the model clearly shows conditions that would have led to a bloom, assuming other preconditions were in place. The customized hydrodynamic model provides opportunities for future ecological modeling, hypothesis development, and what-if scenario testing. This study reinforces the importance of hydrodynamic interactions between lakes and embayments, and their impacts on water quality.     

Dreissena in Lake Ontario 30 years post-invasion

We examined three decades of changes in dreissenid populations in Lake Ontario and predation by round goby (Neogobius melanostomus). Dreissenids (almost exclusively quagga mussels, Dreissena rostriformis bugensis) peaked in 2003, 13 years after arrival, and then declined at depths <90 m but continued to increase deeper through 2018. Lake-wide density also increased from 2008 to 2018 along with average mussel lengths and lake-wide biomass, which reached an all-time high in 2018 (25.2 ± 3.3 g AFTDW/m²). Round goby densities were estimated at 4.2 fish/m² using videography at 10 to 35 m depth range in 2018. This density should impact mussel populations based on feeding rates, as indicated in the literature. While the abundance of 0–5 mm mussels appears to be high in all three years with measured length distributions (2008, 2013, 2018), the abundance of 5 to 12 mm dreissenids, the size range most commonly consumed by round goby, was low except at >90 m depths. Although the size distributions indicate that round goby is affecting mussel recruitment, we did not find a decline in dreissenid density in the nearshore and mid-depth ranges where goby have been abundant since 2005. The lake-wide densities and biomass of quagga mussels have increased over time, due to both the growth of individual mussels in the shallower depths, and a continuing increase in density at >90 m. Thus, the ecological effects of quagga mussels in Lake Ontario are likely to continue into the foreseeable future.     

Feeding ecology of lake whitefish larvae in eastern Lake Ontario

We examined the feeding ecology of larval lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis) in Chaumont Bay, Lake Ontario, during April and May 2004–2006. Larvae were collected with towed ichthyoplankton nets offshore and with larval seines along the shoreline. Larval feeding periodicity was examined from collections made at 4-h intervals over one 24-h period in 2005. Inter-annual variation in diet composition (% dry weight) was low, as was spatial variation among collection sites within the bay. Copepods (81.4%), primarily cyclopoids (59.1%), were the primary prey of larvae over the 3-year period. Cladocerans (8.1%; mainly daphnids, 6.7%) and chironomids (7.3%) were the other major prey consumed. Larvae did not exhibit a preference for any specific prey taxa. Food consumption of lake whitefish larvae was significantly lower at night (i.e., 2400 and 0400 h). Substantial variation in diet composition occurred over the 24-h diel study. For the 24-h period, copepods were the major prey consumed (50.4%) and their contribution in the diet ranged from 29.3% (0400 h) to 85.9% (1200 h). Chironomids made up 33.4% of the diel diet, ranging from 8.0% (0800 h) to 69.9% (0400 h). Diel variation in the diet composition of lake whitefish larvae may require samples taken at several intervals over a 24-h period to gain adequate representation of their feeding ecology.     

Development of a spatially resolved linked hydrodynamic and exposure model (LOTOX2) for PCBs in Lake Ontario

A linked hydrodynamic–hydrophobic organic chemical mass balance and food chain bioaccumulation model, LOTOX2, was developed to support the Lake Ontario Lakewide Management Plan (LaMP) for establishing contaminant load reduction strategies. This paper describes the development of LOTOX2, including the linkage with a relatively finer-scale hydrodynamic model (the Princeton Ocean Model, POM). An important component of this development was the reconstruction of PCB loading history (1930–2005), which was used to understand historic trends and to conduct model calibration/confirmation for total PCBs (tPCBs) in the lake water, sediments, and adult lake trout using data for the last 25 years. A separate mass balance was conducted for the radioisotope cesium-137 (¹³⁷Cs) in order to develop a sorbent mass balance model for the system. Following calibration and confirmation, a diagnostic application of the model showed that the lake is not yet at steady-state with current loads. It will take more than 50 years for tPCB concentration in lake trout to decrease to a steady-state value of about 0.4 ppm if year 2005 loads remain constant. If all external loads were instantaneously eliminated in 2005, it would take approximately 40 years for the adult lake trout tPCB concentration to reach 0.05 ppm (the uniform Great Lakes protocol value for unrestricted consumption) from its current level of 0.74 ppm.     

Application of first-order and Monte Carlo analysis in watershed water quality models

To achieve effective environmental control, it is important to develop methodologies for dealing with uncertainties in model simulation of pollution behaviour and effects. Several procedures have been proposed to quantify uncertainties in modelling studies. This paper utilizes the two methods that are widely applied, i.e. functional analysis and Monte Carlo Simulation.The first-order part of the functional analysis method provides a measure of uncertainties in dependent variables in terms of uncertainties in independent variables. The procedure is based on first-order terms in the Taylor series expansion of the dependent variable about its mean value with respect to one or more independent variables. The major assumption in this procedure is that all independent and dependent variables are the second moment variables (SMV), which means that the behaviour of any SMV is completely described by its mean and standard deviation. The mathematical simplicity of the procedure allows application by simple input-output models. Consequently, it has been applied to many environmental simulators, e.g. hydrological models, stream water quality models, lake water quality models and ground water pollution models.The Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) method uses a large number of repeated trials or simulations with the values for stochastic inputs or uncertain variables selected at random from their assumed parent probability distributions to establish an expected range of model uncertainty.     

Six decades of Lake Ontario ecological history according to benthos

The Laurentian Great Lakes have experienced multiple anthropogenic changes in the past century, including cultural eutrophication, phosphorus abatement initiatives, and the introduction of invasive species. Lake Ontario, the most downstream lake in the system, is considered to be among the most impaired. The benthos of Lake Ontario has been studied intensively in the last six decades and can provide insights into the impact of environmental changes over time. We used multivariate community analyses to examine temporal changes in community composition over the last 54 years and to assess the major drivers of long-term changes in benthos. The benthic community of Lake Ontario underwent significant transformations that correspond with three major periods. The first period, termed the pre/early Dreissena period (1964–1990), was characterized by high densities of Diporeia, Sphaeriidae, and Tubificidae. During the next period defined by zebra mussel dominance (the 1990s) the same groups were still prevalent, but at altered densities. In the most recent period (2000s to present), which is characterized by the dominance and proliferation of quagga mussels deeper into the lake, the community has changed dramatically: Diporeia almost completely disappeared, Sphaeriidae have greatly declined, and densities of quagga mussels, Oligochaeta and Chironomidae have increased. The introduction of invasive dreissenids has changed the Lake Ontario benthic community, historically dominated by Diporeia, Oligochaeta and Sphaeriidae, to a community dominated by quagga mussels and Oligochaeta. Dreissenids, especially the quagga mussel, were the major drivers of these changes over the last half century.     

Predicting submerged aquatic vegetation cover and occurrence in a Lake Superior estuary

Submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) provides the biophysical basis for multiple ecosystem services in Great Lakes estuaries. Understanding sources of variation in SAV is necessary for sustainable management of SAV habitat. From data collected using hydroacoustic survey methods, we created predictive models for SAV in the St. Louis River Estuary (SLRE) of western Lake Superior. The dominant SAV species in most areas of the estuary was American wild celery (Vallisneria americana Michx.). Maximum depth of SAV in 2011 was approximately 2.1 m. In regression tree models, most of the variation in SAV cover was explained by an autoregression (lag) term, depth, and a measure of exposure based on fetch. Logistic SAV occurrence models including water depth, exposure, bed slope, substrate fractal dimension, lag term, and interactions predicted the occurrence of SAV in three areas of the St. Louis River with 78–86% accuracy based on cross validation of a holdout dataset. Reduced models, excluding fractal dimension and the lag term, predicted SAV occurrence with 75–82% accuracy based on cross validation and with 68–85% accuracy for an independent SAV dataset collected using a different sampling method. In one area of the estuary, the probability of SAV occurrence was related to the interaction of depth and exposure. At more exposed sites, SAV was more likely to occur in shallow areas than at less exposed sites. Our predictive models show the range of depth, exposure, and bed slope favorable for SAV in the SLRE; information useful for planning shallow-water habitat restoration projects.     

Predicting the Frequency of Water Quality Standard Violations Using Bayesian Calibration of Eutrophication Models

The water quality standard setting process usually relies on mathematical models with strong mechanistic basis, as this provides assurance that the model will more realistically project the effects of alternative management schemes. From an operational standpoint, the interpretation of model results should be coupled with rigorous error analysis and explicit consideration of the predictive uncertainty and natural variability. In this study, our main objective is to attain effective model calibration and rigorous uncertainty assessment by integrating environmental mathematical modeling with Bayesian analysis. We use a complex aquatic biogeochemical model that simulates multiple elemental cycles (org. C, N, P, Si, O), multiple functional phytoplankton (diatoms, green algae and cyanobacteria) and zooplankton (copepods and cladocerans) groups. The Bayesian calibration framework is illustrated using three synthetic datasets that represent oligo-, meso- and eutrophic lake conditions. Scientific knowledge, expert judgment, and observational data were used to formulate prior probability distributions and characterize the uncertainty pertaining to a subset of the model parameters, i.e., a vector comprising the 35 most influential parameters based on an earlier sensitivity analysis of the model. Our study also underscores the lack of perfect simulators of natural system dynamics using a statistical formulation that explicitly accounts for the discrepancy between mathematical models and environmental systems. The model reproduces the key epilimnetic temporal patterns and provides realistic estimates of predictive uncertainty for water quality variables of environmental management interest. Our analysis also demonstrates how the Bayesian parameter estimation can be used for assessing the exceedance frequency and confidence of compliance of different water quality criteria. The proposed methodological framework can be very useful in the policy-making process and can facilitate environmental management decisions in the Laurentian Great Lakes region.     

Dreissenidae in Lake Ontario: Impact Assessment at the Whole Lake and Bay of Quinte Spatial Scales

The total abundance in Lake Ontario of Dreissena polymorpha (Dreissenidae), the zebra mussel, and D. bugensis (Dreissenidae), the quagga mussel, was calculated by aggregating data from several surveys carried out in 1991 to 94. In 1993, there were between 3.0 × 10 and 8.7 × 10¹² Dreissenidae mussels in Lake Ontario. A filtration model was contructed using depth-specific density estimates, a digital bathymetric map of the lake, and literature estimates of clearance rates for individual mussels. With reasonable estimates of both densities and filtration rates, the mean, area-weighted, turnover time of Lake Ontario water by dreissenid mussels was about 1 year. At the smaller spatial scale of the Bay of Quinte, the same model estimated turnover times of 0.05, 0.2, and 10 days for the lower, middle, and upper areas of the bay, respectively. Depth-specific secondary production estimates for dreissenids, combined with literature estimates of net primary production and energy transfer efficiencies, were incorporated into a food demand model that indicated about 1.25 gC/y mussel of food in Lake Ontario and a consumption efficiency of 50%. At the smaller spatial scale of the Bay of Quinte, the same model estimated one to two orders of magnitude less food per mussel and 62%, 130% and 115% consumption efficiency for the lower, middle and upper areas of the bay, respectively. Dreissenidae mussels may not have a huge impact on the Lake Ontario food web when considered at a whole-lake scale, but their potentially striking impact at the smaller spatial scale of embayments like the Bay of Quinte indicate that they may be locally important. When these effects are aggregated across several sub-systems, Dreissenidae mussels may have unpredictable, larger scale effects in the Lake Ontario ecosystem as a whole.     

An Interval Fuzzy Multiobjective Watershed Management Model for the Lake Qionghai Watershed, China

Integrated watershed management is required to ensure the reasonable use of resources and reconcile interactions among natural and human systems. In the present study, an interval fuzzy multiobjective programming (IFMOP) method was used to solve an integrated watershed management problem. Based on system analysis, an IFMOP model suitable for a lake watershed system {IFMOPLWS} was developed and applied to the Lake Qionghai watershed in China. Scenario analysis and an interactive approach were used in the solution process. In this manner, various system components were incorporated into one framework for holistic consideration and optimization. Integrality and uncertainty, as well as the multiobjective and dynamic characteristics of the watershed system, were well addressed. Using two scenarios, two planning schemes were generated. Agriculture, tourism, macroeconomics, cropland use, water supply, forest coverage, soil erosion, and water pollution were fully interpreted and compared to identify a preferable planning alternative for local agencies. This study showed that the IFMOPLWS is a powerful tool for integrated watershed management planning and can provide a solid base for sustainable watershed management.     

基于灰色预测模型的区域水资源承载力预测分析

水资源承载力研究集综合评价和预测分析为一体。以宜昌市为例,在2005—2015年宜昌市“水资源-社会经济-生态环境”复合系统承载力综合评价基础上,采用GM(1,1)灰色预测模型预测2020年、2025年、2030年水资源承载力;在分析未来水平年预测结果不确定性的基础上,结合最严格水资源管理制度和河长制,探讨4种情景假设下宜昌市社会经济发展模式的可持续性。研究结果表明,未来水平年宜昌市水资源承载力状态良好(2025年左右达到Ⅰ级),建议宜昌市社会经济与生态环境协调可持续发展。     

Habitat use and diet composition of juvenile Atlantic salmon in a tributary of Lake Ontario

The habitat use and diet of juvenile Atlantic salmon Salmo salar was examined in the South Sandy Creek drainage that discharges into eastern Lake Ontario. Subyearling salmon were stocked in early May during two consecutive years, and habitat and diet evaluations were made in mid-July and mid-October in 2005 and 2006. Both subyearling and yearling Atlantic salmon occupied deeper and faster areas that had more cover and larger sized substrate materials than was present, on average, within the study reach. Differences in habitat use between subyearling and yearling salmon only occurred in summer. Principal component analysis showed that of the habitat variables examined, the amount of cover and size of substrate were more important to juvenile salmon in summer, whereas depth and velocity were more important in the fall. Trichopteran larvae (mainly hydropsychids) dominated the diet of juvenile Atlantic salmon, and parr were feeding most heavily from the substrate as compared to the drift. The juvenile ecology of this re-introduced population of Atlantic salmon is consistent with that reported in other studies throughout the species native range.     

Maternal Characteristics versus Egg Size and Energy Density: Do Stocked Lake Trout in Lake Ontario Experience Premature Reproductive Senescence?

Observations from September 1994 and 1997 collections of hatchery-origin, mature female lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) from Lake Ontario indicated that egg mass decreased with age, fueling the notion that stocked fish experienced premature reproductive senescence. Supplemental collections during September 2002 and November 2002-2004 were combined with the 1994 and 1997 samples to examine whether sample date or maternal age, body mass, condition (K), egg count, or strain were related to egg mass or energy content (percentage dry mass [%DM]). Body mass was correlated with egg mass for age ≥ 8 lake trout sampled in September, and egg count was correlated with egg mass for September age-6 lake trout only. Within each month, egg mass was not related to K or egg %DM, however, egg %DM was 1.52% greater (P ≤ 0.0247) in November than in September which is equivalent to a 110 cal/g difference. Samples were grouped for the three most abundant strains (Seneca, Superior, and Ontario) after finding no strain or year effects from our 1994 and 1997 samples and based on life history data from the literature and our assessment sampling. Further analysis indicated that September egg masses were greater for fish ages ≤ 6 than for fish ages ≥ 8. The age effect disappeared in November when mean egg mass across all ages (0.078 g) was greater than September means (P < 0.0005) for ages-5 (0.054 g), -6 (0.057 g) and ≥ 8 (0.041 g). Our results indicate that the decrease in egg mass with female age in September was not due to senescence, but to oogenesis being closer to completion in young age-5 and -6 fish than in older individuals.     

Building a CSMI database: Experiences from the Lake Ontario 2018 CSMI Field Year

The Cooperative Science and Monitoring Initiative (CSMI) instituted under the Science Annex of the 2012 Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement (GLWQA) provides an international framework to coordinate science and monitoring activities in one of the five Great Lakes. On a five-year cycle: (Y1) CSMI priorities are developed under GLWQA Annex 2 Lake Partnerships with input from managers, researchers, and other stakeholders, (Y2) projects are then planned to address those priorities, (Y3) projects are implemented during the field sampling year, (Y4) samples are analyzed, and (Y5) results are shared through reporting. Although CSMI has advanced understanding and management of the Great Lakes, such large-scale studies present unique logistical challenges. Specifically, there is a need to promote and enhance data management, coordination, and sharing efforts. Herein, we describe the process used to develop a database for the 2018 Lake Ontario Field Year and explore the challenges, successes, and lessons learned that could improve collaboration and data compilation in future CSMI cycles. The creation of an accessible and transparent database can encourage collaboration between researchers and scientists, provide insight into the state and health of Lake Ontario, and engage the public as to why monitoring the Great Lakes is so crucial. We suggest the following recommendations to be implemented in future CSMI database iterations: 1) early planning of the database development, 2) house the database in a centralized location with emphasis on metadata, 3) encourage development of summary products for various user groups, and 4) sustained collaboration and commitment on database requirements.     

Resurrection of the Lake Michigan Eutrophication Model,MICH1

The Lake Michigan model, MICH1, was developed more than 30 years ago. This framework was evaluated using field data collected in 1976 and was later applied to predict total phosphorus and phytoplankton concentrations in Lake Michigan during the 1980s and early 1990s. With a renewed interest in the interaction of phytoplankton with toxics and the applicability to Total Maximum Daily Load studies, several new models have been developed and older models have been revived. As part of our interest in plankton dynamics in Lake Michigan, the MICH1 model was resurrected. The model was evaluated over the 1976–1995 period, with a surprisingly good model fit to lake-wide average total phosphorus (TP) field data. However, the model was less successful in mimicking the chlorophyll-a measurements, especially in the hypolimnion. Given the results, the model was applied to perform a few long-term TP model simulations. Using the model with average 1994–95 phosphorus loadings, a steady state was reached within approximately 20 years, and the lakewide phosphorus concentration was below the International Joint Commission water quality guideline of 7 μg/L. This exercise demonstrated that a relatively simple, four-segment model was able to mimic the TP lake-wide data well. However, this model was less suitable to predict future chlorophyll-a concentrations due to the limitation in the representation of the foodchain and the difficulty of the coarse segmentation of the model to capture the deep chlorophyll-a layer. Strengths and limitations of this model can guide future development of eutrophication models for Lake Michigan and the other Great Lakes.     

Habitat use by subyearling Chinook and coho salmon in Lake Ontario tributaries

The habitat use of subyearling Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) was examined in three tributaries of Lake Ontario. A total of 1781 habitat observations were made on Chinook salmon (698) and coho salmon (1083). During both spring and fall, subyearling coho salmon used pool habitat with abundant cover. During spring, principal component analysis revealed that water depth was the most important variable governing subyearling Chinook salmon habitat use. Substrate materials used by Chinook salmon in the spring and coho salmon in the fall were significantly smaller than were present on average within the study reaches. When the two species occurred sympatrically during spring they exhibited similar habitat selection. Although the habitat used by coho salmon in Lake Ontario tributaries was consistent with observations of habitat use in their native range, higher water velocities were less important to Chinook salmon than has previously been reported.     

升钟湖夏季水和沉积物中磷形态分布特征

为探究升钟湖水和沉积物中磷污染情况,于2019年8月(夏季),采集了升钟湖湖区15个样点的水样和沉积物样品,测定了升钟湖表层水、间隙水及沉积物的磷形态,并分析各种形态磷之间的相关性。结果表明:①升钟湖表层水总磷含量介于0.033～0.085 mg/L,各形态的磷含量由高到低依次为DTP(61.93%)、DOP(40.00%)、PP(38.07%)和DIP(21.93%);②间隙水的总磷含量介于3.49～7.57 mg/L,是水体磷的“源”,正磷酸盐仅占总磷的1.9%;③沉积物总磷含量介于299.04～1 138.69 mg/kg,Psenner法连续分级提取出表层沉积物共有5种形态的磷,各形态磷含量由高到低依次为残渣磷(Res-P:44.78%)、金属氧化物结合态磷+有机碎屑腐殖酸磷(NaOH-P:22.92%)、钙结合态磷(HCl-P:14.82%)、可还原态磷(BD-P:13.39%)和弱吸附态磷(NH₄Cl-P:4.09%),各形态磷含量均表现一定的空间分布差异,其中,总磷含量整体为西北部高于东南部;④相关性分析结果显示,沉积物中磷的释放主要通过BD-P、N...