Development of Indian passenger transport

The Indian transport sector has been studied using logistic substitution. The share of rail transport is declining, while road and air transport are increasing. These developments are not desirable from an energy-efficiency perspective.     

Direct energy rebound effect for road passenger transport in China: A dynamic panel quantile regression approach

The transport sector appears a main energy consumer in China and plays a significant role in energy conservation. Improving energy efficiency proves an effective way to reduce energy consumption in transport sector, whereas its effectiveness may be affected by the rebound effect. This paper proposes a dynamic panel quantile regression model to estimate the direct energy rebound effect for road passenger transport in the whole country, eastern, central and western China, respectively, based on the data of 30 provinces from 2003 to 2012. The empirical results reveal that, first of all, the direct rebound effect does exist for road passenger transport and on the whole country, the short-term and long-term direct rebound effects are 25.53% and 26.56% on average, respectively. Second, the direct rebound effect for road passenger transport in central and eastern China tends to decrease, increase and then decrease again, whereas that in western China decreases and then increases, with the increasing passenger kilometers. Finally, when implementing energy efficiency policy in road passenger transport sector, the effectiveness of energy conservation in western China proves much better than that in central China overall, while the effectiveness in central China is relatively better than that in eastern China.     

A system dynamics approach to scenario analysis for urban passenger transport energy consumption and CO2 emissions: A case study of Beijing

With the accelerating process of urbanization, developing countries are facing growing pressure to pursue energy savings and emission reductions, especially in urban passenger transport. In this paper, we built a Beijing urban passenger transport carbon model, including an economy subsystem, population subsystem, transport subsystem, and energy consumption and CO₂ emissions subsystem using System Dynamics. Furthermore, we constructed a variety of policy scenarios based on management experience in Beijing. The analysis showed that priority to the development of public transport (PDPT) could significantly increase the proportion of public transport locally and would be helpful in pursuing energy savings and emission reductions as well. Travel demand management (TDM) had a distinctive effect on energy savings and emission reductions in the short term, while technical progress (TP) was more conducive to realizing emission reduction targets. Administrative rules and regulations management (ARM) had the best overall effect of the individual policies on both energy savings and emission reductions. However, the effect of comprehensive policy (CP) was better than any of the individual policies pursued separately. Furthermore, the optimal implementation sequence of each individual policy in CP was TP→PDPT→TDM→ARM.     

Modeling the dynamics of carbon emission performance in China: A parametric Malmquist index approach

This paper contributes to the existing literature on the methodology of modeling the dynamic of carbon emission performance. Based on the analytical framework of Zhou et al. (Energy Economics, 32, 194–201, 2010), we develop a parametric Malmquist index approach that takes into account statistical noises. Moreover, the fixed-effect panel stochastic frontier model is employed to deal with regional heterogeneity. The proposed approach is applied to analyze the dynamics of carbon emission performance in 30 Chinese provinces during the period of 2000–2010. The main findings are as follows. First, the carbon emission performances of 30 provinces as a whole improved by 4.1% annually during the sample period, which was mainly driven by efficiency change component. Second, the east area shows the best performance with an average Malmquist CO₂ emissions performance index (MCPI) of 1.108, followed by the central area (1.039). Unlike the east and central areas, the west area experienced deterioration in carbon emission performance. More effective environmental policies should be implemented to change the situation. Third, compared with the proposed approach, the nonparametric approach tends to underestimate China's MCPI and gives rise to volatile results.     

Convergence of carbon emissions at the household level in China: A distribution dynamics approach

Since household carbon emissions (HCEs) have become a new growing source and a significant contributor to global emissions, the reduction of HCEs is crucial. To formulate targeted and effective emission mitigation policies, we need to fully understand the characteristics of the distribution and evolution of per capita HCEs and their urban-rural and regional heterogeneity. This paper explores the transitional dynamics of per capita HCEs in China by employing the distribution dynamics approach with panel data compiled at the household level. We find that the overall per capita HCEs are unimodal distribution in the long run and the distribution dynamics of the per capita HCEs between the urban and rural areas or among the regional subgroups are quite different. However, the speed of convergence has accelerated over time. Moreover, our findings indicate that the per capita HCEs in the urban areas will achieve convergence to an emission level much higher than that of the rural areas. Meantime the per capita HCEs in Northeast China will converge to an emission level much higher than those of the other three regions. These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers in implementing differentiated environmental policies for different regions and between urban and rural households in China.     

Technology sustainability assessment of biodiesel development in South Africa: A system dynamics approach

Currently, several renewable energy technologies have reached, or are approaching maturity and can be utilised for small- and large-scale applications. Biodiesel, a cleaner burning replacement fuel, is argued to potentially contribute to sustainable development in many countries and regions of the world. Biodiesel development, however, entails complex interactions of actors such as the technology developers, government at different levels, communities, as well as the natural environment; different actions or responses in the greater system might hinder or undermine the positive effects of such a development. Given such complexity, an integrated and holistic technology assessment approach is indispensible to determine the potential effects of biodiesel development on sustainability in general, which can then inform and enhance proper planning and management. The paper thus introduces the Bioenergy Technology Sustainability Assessment (BIOTSA) model that has been developed, based on a system dynamics approach. The model is demonstrated and evaluated with a specific case: the assessment of the effects of biodiesel development on selected sustainability indicators for the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa. The strengths and limitations of the model are discussed and future perspectives are outlined.     

DF4D型客运机车电机悬挂系统动力学分析

采用多刚体动力学软件SIMPACK,建立DF4D型机车的整车动力学模型,根据机车运行的实际情况,选择工况进行动力仿真计算,得出牵引电机悬挂刚度影响电机振动加速度的结论,从系统设计方面为DF4D型客运机车滚动抱轴箱产生批量裂纹寻找原因。     

Commodity dynamics: A sparse multi-class approach

The correct understanding of commodity price dynamics can bring relevant improvements in terms of policy formulation both for developing and developed countries. Agricultural, metal and energy commodity prices might depend on each other: although we expect few important effects among the total number of possible ones, some price effects among different commodities might still be substantial. Moreover, the increasing integration of the world economy suggests that these effects should be comparable for different markets. This paper introduces a sparse estimator of the Multi-class Vector AutoRegressive model to detect common price effects between a large number of commodities, for different markets or investment portfolios. In a first application, we consider agricultural, metal and energy commodities for three different markets. We show a large prevalence of effects involving metal commodities in the Chinese and Indian markets, and the existence of asymmetric price effects. In a second application, we analyze commodity prices for five different investment portfolios, and highlight the existence of important effects from energy to agricultural commodities. The relevance of biofuels is hereby confirmed. Overall, we find stronger similarities in commodity price effects among portfolios than among markets.     

Impact of a carbon tax on the Chilean economy: A computable general equilibrium analysis

In 2009, the government of Chile announced their official commitment to reduce national greenhouse gas emissions by 20% below a business-as-usual projection by 2020. Due to the fact that an effective way to reduce emissions is to implement a national carbon tax, the goal of this article is to quantify the value of a carbon tax that will allow the achievement of the emission reduction target and to assess its impact on the economy.The approach used in this work is to compare the economy before and after the implementation of the carbon tax by creating a static computable general equilibrium model of the Chilean economy. The model developed here disaggregates the economy in 23 industries and 23 commodities, and it uses four consumer agents (households, government, investment, and the rest of the world). By setting specific production and consumptions functions, the model can assess the variation in commodity prices, industrial production, and agent consumption, allowing a cross-sectoral analysis of the impact of the carbon tax. The benchmark of the economy, upon which the analysis is based, came from a social accounting matrix specially constructed for this model, based on the year 2010.The carbon tax was modeled as an ad valorem tax under two scenarios: tax on emissions from fossil fuels burned only by producers and tax on emissions from fossil fuels burned by producers and households. The abatement cost curve has shown that it is more cost-effective to tax only producers, rather than to tax both producers and households. This is due to the fact that when compared to the emission level observed in 2010, a 20% emission reduction will cause a loss in GDP of 2% and 2.3% respectively. Under the two scenarios, the tax value that could lead to that emission reduction is around 26 US dollars per ton of CO₂-equivalent. The most affected productive sectors are oil refinery, transport, and electricity — having a contraction between 7% and 9%. Analyzing the electricity sector by energy source, the production of electricity from fossil fuels will decrease by 11%, but electricity from renewables will increase by 43%. Electricity producers will pass the cost of the carbon tax to the consumer by increasing the price of electricity by 8%.The findings of this paper will allow policy makers to take better and more informed decisions, by providing a cross-sectoral analysis of the impact on the economy of reducing emissions by 20% by implementing a national carbon tax.     

A study on the future of unconventional oil development under different oil price scenarios: A system dynamics approach

Fluctuations in the oil global market has been a critical topic for the world economy so that analyzing and forecasting the conventional oil production rate has been examined by many researchers thoroughly. However, the dynamics of the market has not been studied systematically with regard to the new emerging competitors, namely unconventional oil. In this paper, the future trend of conventional and unconventional oil production and capacity expansion rates are analyzed using system dynamics approach. To do so, a supply-side modeling approach is utilized while main effective loops are modeled mathematically as follows: technological learning and progress, long and short-term profitability of oil capacity expansion and production, and oil proved reserve limitations. The proposed model is used to analyze conventional and unconventional oil production shares, up to 2025, under different oil price scenarios. The results show that conventional oil production rate ranges from 79.995 to 87.044 MB/day, which is 75–80 percent of total oil production rate, while unconventional oil production rate ranges from 19.615 to 28.584 MB/day. Simulation results reveal that unconventional oil can gain a considerable market share in the short run, although conventional oil will remain as the major source for the market in the long run.     

A system dynamics approach for the photovoltaic energy market in Spain

The goal of this paper is to contribute to understanding the behaviour of the photovoltaic (PV) sector in Spain and its expectations under possible scenarios. Currently, PV solar energy is not a profitable sector by itself. Therefore, the Spanish government, like the governments of other countries, has stimulated investment with subsidies. The spectacular increase of PV facilities exceeded all forecasts and the government decided to curb the trend. The present hypothesis is that continuing with this support to PV energy, the technological advances and the economy generated from the production of panels would be able to make the sector profitable in the future without the necessity of subventions. Based on this hypothesis, a computer simulation model was built using the system dynamics methodology. To test its utility, the model was challenged to fit the historical data and to explore several futures over the next few years. The model allows an understanding of the sector's behaviour under the latest policies of the Spanish government, thus helping to design future public policies. The simulation results are different depending on the adopted policy and the scenario. Therefore, these factors will determine the success or failure of the investments in this type of energy.     

Double dividend effectiveness of energy tax policies and the elasticity of substitution: A CGE appraisal

There is a considerable body of literature that has studied whether or not an adequately designed tax swap, whereby an ecotax is levied and some other tax is reduced while keeping government income constant, may achieve a so-called double dividend, that is, an increase in environmental quality and an increase in overall efficiency. Arguments in favor and against are abundant. Our position is that the issue should be empirically studied starting from an actual, non-optimal tax system structure and by way of checking the responsiveness of equilibria to revenue neutral tax regimes under alternate scenarios regarding technological substitution. With the use of a CGE model, we find that the most critical elasticity for achieving a double dividend is the substitution elasticity between labor and capital whereas the elasticity that would generate the highest reduction in carbon dioxide emissions is the substitution elasticity among energy goods.     

Impact of carbon tax on internal combustion engine size selection in a medium scale CHP system

Combined heat and power (CHP) systems due to their high efficiency compared to the conventional power generation systems have received considerable attention as they have less harmful impact on the environment. Recently, the serious concern with reducing the greenhouse gas emissions has focussed the attention on the possibility of a carbon tax in some countries. Here, we address the impact of such tax on the sizing and economics of a CHP system.     

The dynamics of returns on renewable energy companies: A state-space approach

The renewable energy sector has accomplished remarkable growth rates over the last decade. This paper examines the dynamics of excess returns for the WilderHill New Energy Global Innovation Index, which lists firms in the renewable energy sector and is used as a global benchmark. We propose a multi-factor asset pricing model with time-varying coefficients to study the role of energy prices and stock market indices as explanatory factors. Our results suggest a strong influence of the MSCI World index and technology stocks throughout the sample period. The influence of changes in the oil price is significantly lower, although oil has become more influential from 2007 onwards. We also find evidence for underperformance of the renewable energy sector relative to the considered pricing factors after the financial crisis.     

A review on emissions and mitigation strategies for road transport in Malaysia

The emissions from road transport are serious threats to urban air quality and global warming. The first step to develop effective policies is to determine the source and amount of emissions produced. This paper attempts to review emissions from road transport using COPERT 4 model and examined possible emission mitigation strategies. In road transport, results have show that passenger cars are the main cause of CO₂, N₂O and CO emissions, while motorcycles are main source of hydrocarbon (HC) emissions. However, light duty vehicles and heavy duty vehicles are the main contribution of particulate matters. The total CO₂ equivalent emissions for road transport in Malaysia are 59,383.51 ktonnes for year 2007. Further results show that CO₂ emission is the primary source of greenhouse gas pollution which is 71% of the total CO₂ equivalent. A parametric study was conducted to estimate the potential emission mitigation strategies for road transport by taking the emissions in 2007 as a reference year. It was observed that promoting the public transport is an effective strategy to reduce emissions and fuel consumption from the technical view point. It can totally save up to 1044 ktonnes of fuel consumption and total CO₂ equivalents emissions can be decreased by 7%. It was noted that, fleet renewal and promoting natural gas vehicles will significantly contribute in the reduction of emissions in Malaysia.     

Flexible sector coupling with hydrogen: A climate-friendly fuel supply for road transport

The substantial expansion of renewable energy sources is creating the foundation to successfully transform the German energy sector (the so-called ‘Energiewende’). A by-product of this development is the corresponding capacity demand for the transportation, distribution and storage of energy. Hydrogen produced by electrolysis offers a promising solution to these challenges, although the willingness to invest in hydrogen technologies requires the identification of competitive and climate-friendly pathways in the long run. Therefore, this paper employs a pathway analysis to investigate the use of renewable hydrogen in the German passenger car transportation sector in terms of varying market penetration scenarios for fuel cell-electric vehicles (FCEVs). The investigation focuses on how an H₂ infrastructure can be designed on a national scale with various supply chain networks to establish robust pathways and important technologies, which has not yet been done. Therefore, the study includes all related aspects, from hydrogen production to fueling stations, for a given FCEV market penetration scenario, as well as the CO₂ reduction potential that can be achieved for the transport sector. A total of four scenarios are considered, estimating an FCEV market share of 1–75% by the year 2050. This corresponds to an annual production of 0.02–2.88 million tons of hydrogen. The findings show that the most cost-efficient H₂ supply (well-to-tank: 6.7–7.5 €/kg_H2) can be achieved in high demand scenarios (FCEV market shares of 30% and 75%) through a combination of cavern storage and pipeline transport. For low-demand scenarios, however, technology pathways involving LH₂ and LOHC truck transport represent the most cost-efficient options (well-to-tank: 8.2–11.4 €/kg_H2).     

Impact analysis of carbon tax on the renewal planning of energy supply system for an office building

An optimal planning method is proposed for the renewal-planning problem of an energy supply system installed into building from economic viewpoint. In this method, the objective function to be minimized is the average annual total cost during the evaluation period of the objective system based on the annualized costs method, and the renewal year is considered as a decision variable together with the renewal system's structure, equipment capacities, and system's operational strategy. This problem is formulated as one of the mixed-integer linear programming problem, and a numerical study is carried out for an office building with the total floor area of 15,000 m² by using the GAMS/CPLEX solver. Impact analysis of the carbon tax introduction is mainly studied on the renewal planning mentioned above, and the following results are obtained:     

Exxon is right: Let us re-examine our choice for a cap-and-trade system over a carbon tax

This commentary examines the impact of the recently launched European Union Emission Trading System (EU ETS) in terms of emission reductions and cost to the public. The study points out that a cap-and-trade system may not be the most cost-efficient mechanism to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. It also lists seven main differences between such a system and a carbon tax along the following issues: amount of emissions reduced; flow of revenue to the public purse; cost of the system to the public; marginal cost of carbon emission reductions to the firm; generating excess rent; price setting mechanism and stability of system; as well as duration and commitment. When looking at emission reductions along these dimensions, it becomes clear that an internationally coordinated carbon tax may be a quicker and cheaper way to reduce greenhouse gas emissions worldwide.     

Techno-economic modeling of zero-emission marine transport with hydrogen fuel and superconducting propulsion system: Case study of a passenger ferry

This paper proposes a techno-economic model for a high-speed hydrogen ferry. The model can describe the system properties i.e. energy demand, weight, and daily operating expenses of the ferry. A novel aspect is the consideration of superconductivity as a measure for cost saving in the setting where liquid hydrogen (LH₂) can be both coolant and fuel. We survey different scenarios for a high-speed ferry that could carry 300 passengers. The results show that, despite higher energy demand, compressed hydrogen gas is more economical compared with LH₂ for now; however, constructing large-scale hydrogen liquefaction plants make it competitive in the future. Moreover, compressed hydrogen gas is restricted to a shorter distance while LH₂ makes longer distances possible, and whenever LH₂ is accessible, using a superconducting propulsion system has a beneficial impact on both energy and cost savings. These effects strengthen if the operational time or the weight of the ferry increases.