What explain the short-term dynamics of the prices of CO2 emissions?

Using a Bayesian Structural VAR (BSVAR), this paper analyzes the short-term dynamics of the prices of CO₂ emissions in response to changes in the prices of oil, coal, natural gas and electricity. The results show that: (i) a positive shock to the crude oil prices has an initial positive effect on the CO₂ allowance prices, which later becomes negative; (ii) an unexpected increase in the natural gas prices reduces the price of CO₂ emissions; (iii) a positive shock to the prices of the fuel of choice, coal, has virtually no significant impact on the CO₂ prices; (iv) there is a clear positive effect of the coal prices on the CO₂ allowance prices when the electricity prices are excluded from the BSVAR system; and (v) a positive shock to the electricity prices has a negative impact on the price of the CO₂ allowances. We also find that the energy price shocks have a persistent impact on the CO₂ allowance prices, with the largest effect occurring 6 months after a shock strikes. The effect is particularly strong in the case of the shocks to the natural gas and crude oil prices. Finally, the empirical findings suggest an important degree of substitution between the three primary sources of energy (i.e., crude oil, natural gas and coal), particularly when electricity prices are excluded from the BSVAR system.     

Comparison of black liquor gasification with other pulping biorefinery concepts – Systems analysis of economic performance and CO2 emissions

Black liquor gasification (BLG) is being developed as an alternative technology for energy and chemical recovery in kraft pulp mills. This study compares BLG – with downstream production of DME (dimethyl ether) or electricity – with recovery boiler-based pulping biorefinery concepts for different types of mills. The comparison is based on profitability as well as CO₂ emissions, using different future energy market scenarios. The possibility for carbon capture and storage (CCS) is considered. The results show that, if commercialised, BLG with DME production could be profitable for both market pulp mills and integrated pulp and paper mills in all energy market scenarios considered. Recovery boiler-based biorefinery concepts including extraction of lignin or solid biomass gasification with DME production could also be profitable for market and integrated mills, respectively. If the mill is located close to an infrastructure for CO₂ collection and transportation, CCS significantly improves profitability in scenarios with a high CO₂ emissions charge, for both combustion- and gasification-based systems. Concepts that include CCS generally show a large potential for reduction of global CO₂ emissions. Few of the concepts without CCS achieve a significant reduction of CO₂ emissions, especially for integrated mills.     

Can expanding natural gas infrastructure mitigate CO2 emissions? Analysis of heterogeneous and mediation effects for China

To verify whether the expansion of natural gas infrastructure can effectively mitigate carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions in China, this study first investigates the impact of natural gas infrastructure on China's CO₂ emissions by employing a balanced panel dataset for 30 Chinese provinces covering 2004–2017. Fully considering the potential heterogeneity and asymmetry, the two-step panel quantile regression approach is utilized. Also, to test the mediation impact mechanism between natural gas infrastructure and CO₂ emissions, this study then analyzes the three major mediation effects of natural gas infrastructure on China's CO₂ emissions (i.e., scale effect, technique effect, and structure effect). The empirical results indicate that expansion of the natural gas infrastructure can effectively mitigate China's CO₂ emissions; however, this impact is significantly heterogeneous and asymmetric across quantiles. Furthermore, through analyzing the mediation impact mechanism, the natural gas infrastructure can indirectly affect CO₂ emissions in China through the scale effect (i.e., gas population and economic effects) and structure effect (i.e., energy structure effect). Conversely, the technique effect (i.e., energy intensity effect) brought by natural gas infrastructure on CO₂ emissions in China has not been significant so far. Finally, policy implications are highlighted for the Chinese government with respect to reducing CO₂ emissions and promoting growth in the natural gas infrastructure.     

Comments on the Brazilian Proposal and contributions to global temperature increase with different climate responses—CO2 emissions due to fossil fuels,CO2 emissions due to land use change

This paper addresses the question of how to take into account the anthropogenic contribution to the increase of global temperature, instead of being restricted to the Carbon emissions adopted in the Kyoto Protocol on responsibility sharing. It is shown the sensibility of the results to the variation of the parameters from different authors used for simulating the climate response based in the so-called Brazilian Proposal (BP).It is also discussed the methodological and scientific aspects of the BP being discussed by an expert group coordinated by SBSTA/UNFCCC and results of energy sector and land use change contributions by groups of countries.     

Can expanding natural gas consumption reduce China's CO2 emissions?

China is now the world's largest emitter of carbon dioxide (CO₂), thus leading to China facing enormous pressure on CO₂ emission reduction. Natural gas is a high thermal and low-emission energy. Expanding natural gas consumption cannot only meet the growing demand for energy consumption but also optimize energy consumption structure. Therefore, many scholars have investigated the effect of natural gas consumption on CO₂ emissions. However, ignoring a large number of nonlinear relationships between economic variables, the vast majority of existing studies use traditional linear models to explore the relationships between natural gas consumption and CO₂ emissions. In order to make up for the gap in existing research, this paper uses the nonparametric additive regression model with data-driven features to investigate the relationships between the two. The results show that natural gas consumption has an inverted “U-shaped” nonlinear effect on CO₂ emissions in the eastern region, but a positive “U-shaped” nonlinear effect in the central and western regions. The linear impact of natural gas consumption on CO₂ emissions in the eastern and central regions is higher than that in the western region, due to the differences in resource availability and energy prices, as well as natural gas consumption. Therefore, during the process of promoting natural gas consumption, the central and local governments should adopt heterogeneous measures at different stages of development.     

Are car manufacturers on the way to reduce CO2 emissions?: A DEA approach

One of the pillars of the fight against climate change is reducing the amount of greenhouse gases that are emitted into the atmosphere. In that regard, curtailing CO₂ emissions from transport activities is a major objective. In its attempts of “decarbonising” transport, the European Commission set in 2009 different emission limits on the vehicles sold in Europe. With this background, this paper aims to test the ability of the major car manufacturers to meet these present and future targets with the existing technological trends. To that end, we provide an in-depth analysis on the temporal evolution of emission efficiencies in the Spanish car market. The well-known DEA-Malmquist method is applied over a large sample of car models sold in Spain between 2004 and 2010. A second-stage regression allows us to identify the main drivers of efficiency, catch-up and technical change over the period. Finally, the estimated trends are extrapolated to predict future emission levels for the car manufacturers. Using post-regulation rates of technical change, results show that the vast majority of companies would meet the 2015 target, 27% of the current market would meet the 2020 target, and around 3% would be able to comply with the 2025 target. Thus, since all targets are technologically feasible, stricter regulation is the recommended approach to encourage manufacturers to meet the goals set by the European Commission.     

How large is the effect of financial incentives on electric vehicle sales? – A global review and European analysis

Plug-in electric vehicles (PEV), both as battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles have noteworthy potential to reduce global and local emissions. However, several barriers still hinder a fast market diffusion of this new technology. Governments around the world have implemented monetary and non-monetary policies to accelerate PEV market diffusion. Their effectiveness is established in the literature, yet the effect size has been only scarcely estimated empirically and only for the US. Here, we review econometric studies on the effect size of purchase incentives and analyse data on PEV sales from 32 European countries from 2010 to 2017 with respect to the effect of financial incentives. We apply panel data regressions and control for other factors such as income and fuel prices. We find energy prices and financial incentives to influence PEV adoption positively. The range of point estimates for the effect of incentives is 5–7% relative sales share increase in different model specifications. Methodologically, the inclusion of a trend variable proved important to capture overall changes in the diffusion of this new technology. Our findings indicate that financial incentives have an impact on PEV sales and thus can facilitate their diffusion.     

Which is the better catalyst for CO2 methanation – Nanotubular or supported Ni-phyllosilicate?

In order to investigate effects of morphology and crystalline phase of different Ni-phyllosilicate catalysts on the catalytic performance for CO₂ methanation, nanotubular Ni-phyllosilicate and MCM-41 supported Ni-phyllosilicate were synthesized through hydrothermal reaction of sodium silicate or MCM-41 with nickel nitrate. On one hand, nanosheets attributing to 2:1 type nickel phyllosilicate (Ni₃Si₄O₁₀(OH)₂·5H₂O) were uniformly grown on the surface of MCM-41 spheres to form the MCM-41 supported Ni-phyllosilicate (Ni/M). On the other hand, 1:1 type Ni-phyllosilicate with nanotubular morphology (Ni/N) was synthesized through the reaction of Na₂SiO₃ and nickel nitrate. After a series of tests and characterizations, it was found that Ni/N exhibited low thermal stability and poor anti-sintering property, leading to poor catalytic activity for CO₂ methanation. On the contrary, Ni/M was very stable, which obtained unchanged morphology and fine Ni particles after 750^oC-reduction, resulting in high catalytic activity and long-term stability for CO₂ methanation. In all, morphology and crystalline phase of Ni-phyllosilicate obviously affected catalytic performance, and the supported Ni-phyllosilicate catalyst was much better than the nanotubular Ni-phyllosilicate for CO₂ methanation in this work.     

Energy use,CO2 emission and foreign direct investment: Is there any inconsistence between causal relations?

In this study, the causal relations between inward foreign direct investment (FDI)-energy use per capita and inward FDI-CO₂ emission per capita were analyzed and the inconsistency between the causal relations was investigated via bootstrap-corrected panel causality test and cross-correlation analysis. In this direction, data from 76 countries including the period of 1980–2009 was processed. No supportive evidence was found for changing causal relations to country group which was classified into income level. The findings indicated that while the pollution haven hypothesis was supported for Mozambique, United Arab Emirates and Oman, the pollution halo hypothesis was supported in the case of India, Iceland, Panama and Zambia. For other countries, energy use and CO₂ emission were neutral to inward FDI flows in aggregated level. Furthermore, this study urged that increased (decreased) energy use due to the inward FDI flows did not necessarily mean an increase (decrease) in pollution level, and vice versa. For policy purpose, FDI attractive policy should be regulated by taking into account this possibility.     

The Smart Grid – A saucerful of secrets?

To many, a lot of secrets are at the bottom of the often-cited catchphrase “Smart Grid”. This article gives an overview of the options that information and communication technology (ICT) offers for the restructuring and modernisation of the German power system, in particular with a view towards its development into a Smart Grid and thus tries to reveal these secrets. After a short outline on the development of ICT in terms of technology types and their availability, the further analysis highlights upcoming challenges in all parts of the power value chain and possible solutions for these challenges through the intensified usage of ICT applications. They are examined with regard to their effectiveness and efficiency in the fields of generation, transmission, distribution and supply. Finally, potential obstacles that may defer the introduction of ICT into the power system are shown. The analysis suggests that if certain hurdles are taken, the huge potential of ICT can create additional value in various fields of the whole power value chain. This ranges from increased energy efficiency and the more sophisticated integration of decentralised (renewable) energy plants to a higher security of supply and more efficient organisation of market processes. The results are true for the German power market but can in many areas also be transferred to other industrialised nations with liberalised power markets.     

What proportion of renewable energy supplies is needed to initially mitigate CO2 emissions in OECD member countries?

In spite of increasing numbers of countries having established renewable energy development mechanisms for carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions reduction, the CO₂ emissions problem continues to worsen along with the growth of the world economy. This leads us to examine the threshold effect of the proportion of renewable energy supply for CO₂ emissions reduction by means of the panel threshold regression model (PTR). Economic growth and the price of energy are also both taken into account in the model in measuring the specific influence that each of them has on CO₂ emissions. The empirical panel data encompass all 30 member countries of the OECD and cover a period of about a decade in length from 1996 to 2005. Our empirical results provide clear evidence of the existence of a single threshold effect that may be divided into lower and higher regimes. Based on the specific estimates of the slope coefficients in each regime distinguished, we find that a renewable energy supply accounting for at least 8.3889% of total energy supply would mean that CO₂ emissions would start to be mitigated. Furthermore, real GDP and the CPI of energy are significantly and positively and insignificantly and negatively correlated with CO₂ emissions, respectively. These findings lead us to conclude that the authorities ought to enhance the proportion of renewable energy supply to more than 8.3889% of all energy supplied, which might help resolve the dilemma between economic growth and CO₂ emissions. Realizing the effects of CO₂ emissions reduction via energy price reforms or the levying of a carbon tax levy may, however, still remain a puzzle.     

Does environmental infrastructure investment contribute to emissions reduction? A case of China

Environmental infrastructure investment (EII) is an important environmental policy instrument on responding to greenhouse gas (GHG) emission and air pollution. This paper employs an improved stochastic impact by regression on population, affluence and technology (STRIPAT) model by using panel data from 30 Chinese provinces and municipalities for the period of 2003–2015 to investigate the effect of EII on CO₂ emissions, SO₂ emissions, and PM_2.5 pollution. The results indicate that EII has a positive and significant effect on mitigating CO₂ emission. However, the effect of EII on SO₂ emission fluctuated although it still contributes to the reduction of PM_2.5 pollution through technology innovations. Energy intensity has the largest impact on GHG emissions and air pollution, followed by GDP per capita and industrial structure. In addition, the effect of EII on environmental issues varies in different regions. Such findings suggest that policies on EII should be region-specific so that more appropriate mitigation policies can be raised by considering the local realities.     

How does tax system on energy industries affect energy demand,CO2 emissions,and economy in China?

Energy savings and CO₂ emission reduction have become a major issue in recent years. Taxes on energy production sectors may be an effective way to save energy, reduce CO₂ emissions, and improve environmental quality. This paper constructs a dynamic recursive Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to analyze the impact of the energy tax on energy, economy, and environment from the perspective of tax rates and tax forms (specific tax and ad valorem tax). The results show that adjusting the tax system and the tax rate has important implications for energy conservation while having minor impacts on the output of other industries. The impact of an increasing energy tax on the energy demand is greater than the impact on sectoral output, indicating that energy efficiency will be increased to some extent. The CO₂ reduction will increase over time when an ad valorem tax is implemented on enterprises. We found that ad valorem tax has greater elasticity of economic output, energy demand, and CO₂ emission reduction. The results support the direction of China's resource tax reform. However, we argue that it is better to increase the tax rate relatively and relax the control on energy prices so that energy efficiency will increase.     

Kinetics and mechanism of CO2 gasification of coal catalyzed by Na2CO3, FeCO3 and Na2CO3–FeCO3

The purpose is to develop a mild catalytic CO₂-gasification technology that can promote CO₂ utilization and reduce cost in air separation systems with improving system efficiency and obtaining desirable gaseous products. In this study, the influence of Na, Fe and their composite catalysts on the structure and gasification reactivity of chars derived from pyrolysis of Powder River Basin (PRB) coal was investigated. The results showed that a strong positive synergistic effect between Na and Fe catalyst in the gasification process was observed, the catalytic activity of the added catalysts was in order of: 4% Na > 3% Na–1%Fe > 2% Na-2% Fe > 1% Na-3% Fe > 1% Na-2% Fe > 4% Fe > raw coal. The catalysts inhibited the growth of the aromatic ring structure and enriched the generation of O-containing functional groups. Compared to Fe, the Na-based catalyst could easily diffuse into inner pores of coal char, forming C–O–Na structure and thus increasing the gasification reactivity of chars. In addition, due to the formation of inert material between SiO₂ and Na, the catalytic activity of Na catalysts was significantly decrease at the late stage of char conversion. Comparatively, the Fe-based catalysts showed better stability life. Moreover, it was found that the activation energy for CO₂-gasification of PRB coal can be decreased by 50% due to the addition of Na catalyst.     

Miracle or mirage? The promise and peril of desert energy part 2

Consisting of two parts, this article explores the history and challenges facing the Gobitec project, an ambitious proposal to build a multibillion dollar solar power system in the Gobi desert to export electricity throughout Northeast Asia. The first part of our study detailed the primary methods of data collection involved—research interviews, site visits, and a literature review—as well as the history of the Gobitec concept and its close relation to the Desertec concept in North Africa and Europe. Part 1 also discussed the “promise” of very large solar systems in deserts, namely improved security of supply and reduced greenhouse gas emissions. However, this part of our study finds that such projects also face a list of serious – and perhaps insurmountable – technical, economic, political, and social barriers. It concludes by drawing implications for large-scale energy projects and energy policymaking more broadly.     

A missing link? The case of Norway and Sweden: Does increased renewable energy production impact domestic greenhouse gas emissions?

This article examines how the EU׳s RES directive¹ will impact domestic greenhouse gas emissions in Norway and Sweden by 2020. The directive aims for a higher RES share in the energy consumption mix, and Norway and Sweden have established a common electricity certificate scheme to help achieve these RES goals. In terms of how these two national RES plans will impact domestic emissions by 2020, factors such as nuclear power, consumption changes and the energy balance must be considered. The most practical approach to evaluate the plans’ impact on emissions is to focus on changes in carbon-based consumption within the three directive sectors.The Norwegian RES action plan will not affect domestic emissions unless the electricity surplus generated by the certificate market is used to phase out fossil fuels in domestic sectors beyond the scope of the RES directive. The use of electricity to phase out fossil fuel consumption in the offshore sector would substantially reduce Norwegian emissions figures. The Swedish plan would positively impact Swedish greenhouse gas emissions; however, this impact is limited, primarily because a substantial increase in energy consumption is expected.     

Input–output analysis of CO2 emissions embodied in trade: Competitive versus non-competitive imports

Energy-related CO₂ emissions embodied in international trade have been widely studied by researchers using the environmental input–output framework. In the literature two different approaches to deal with emissions embodied in a country's imports can be found. One of the approaches is based on the assumption of competitive imports while the other is based on the assumption of non-competitive imports. We show that the implications of the results obtained using different imports assumptions are not the same. The approach using the competitive imports assumption gives estimates larger than those obtained using the non-competitive import assumption. The differences between the two embodiment estimates come from the transition of embodied emissions in China's imports for intermediate consumption to those in China's exports. This explains why relatively high estimates of CO₂ emissions embodied in China's exports are reported in several recent studies appearing in Energy Policy.     

Information and communication technologies – A new round of household electrification

Information and communication technologies (ICTs) increasingly permeate everyday life in industrialized societies. The aim of this paper is to explore ICT-related transformations of everyday practices and discuss the implications, particularly for residential electricity consumption. The present socio-technical changes are seen in a historical perspective, and it is argued that the integration of ICT into everyday practices can be seen as a new round of household electrification, comparable to earlier rounds that also led to higher electricity consumption. A case study carried out in Denmark in 2007–2008 explores the present changes in everyday life. Based on qualitative interviews, the study focuses on people's ways of integrating ICTs into their everyday practices, on any significant changes in these practices, and on the influence of the changed practices on electricity consumption. The paper concludes with a discussion on the implications for energy policy.     

National energy policies: Obstructing the reduction of global CO2 emissions? An analysis of Swedish energy policies for the district heating sector

The effect of national energy policies on a local Swedish district heating (DH) system has been studied, regarding the profitability of new investments and the potential for climate change mitigation. The DH system has been optimised regarding three investments: biomass-fuelled CHP (bio CHP), natural gas-fuelled combined cycle CHP (NGCC CHP) and biomass-fuelled heat-only boiler (bio HOB) in two scenarios (with or without national taxes and policy instruments). In both scenarios EU’s tradable CO₂ emission permits are included. Results from the study show that when national policies are included, the most cost-effective investment option is the bio CHP technology. However, when national taxes and policy instruments are excluded, the DH system containing the NGCC CHP plant has 30% lower system cost than the bio CHP system. Regardless of the scenario and when coal condensing is considered as marginal electricity production, the NGCC CHP has the largest global CO₂ reduction potential, about 300 ktonne CO₂. However, the CO₂ reduction potential is highly dependent on the marginal electricity production. Demonstrated here is that national policies such as tradable green certificates can, when applied to DH systems, contribute to investments that will not fully utilise the DH systems’ potential for global CO₂ emissions reductions.     

Effective ways to reduce CO2 emissions from China's heavy industry? Evidence from semiparametric regression models

Using China's province-level panel data from 2005 to 2017, this article uses a semiparametric regression model to investigate CO₂ emissions in China's heavy industry. Empirical results show that while economic growth exerted carbon reduction effects in the eastern region, it stimulated the growth of CO₂ emissions in the central and western regions. This is mainly due to regional differences in industrial structure and the high-tech industry. Energy efficiency has made a greater contribution to reducing CO₂ emissions in the central region because the R&D investment and patent rights granted in this region has grown faster. The energy consumption structure has a more complex impact. It exerts a “pulling first, then restricting” (Ո-shaped) nonlinear effect on CO₂ emissions in the eastern and western regions, but an inverted “N-shaped” effect in the central region. This is mainly due to the differences in the composition of energy consumption across regions. Environmental regulations have a positive “U-shaped” nonlinear impact on CO₂ emissions in the eastern and western regions. It means that environmental regulations help cut down CO₂ emissions in the early stage, and the facilitation effect gradually disappears at the later stage. Conversely, environmental regulations produce an inverted “U-shaped” impact in the central region.