The regional demand for energy by the residential sector in the United States

The residential sector is a substantial consumer of energy in the United States. The heterogeneous composition of the sector complicates modelling the demand for energy. After reflecting the particular nuances introduced by differing thermal characteristics of the various fuels, one finds an income elasticity slightly in excess of unity and a price elasticity of demand of approximately ?0·35. The results are not inconsistent with other studies done for the United States.A translog fuel share model yields some significant and interesting conclusions. Support is lent to the contention that consumers are responding to the relative changes in fuel prices by altering their energy consumption patterns.Finally, the question of stability is addressed. The results are conclusive suggesting that the demand for natural gas, oil and electrical energy have remained cirtually constant over the past three decades.     

Residential energy demand in the United States: Analysis using static and dynamic approaches

The residential sector is the main consumer of energy in the United States, and reducing energy consumption is an important goal for policymakers in each state. To know how reducing residential energy demand could be achieved, this study develops a set of static and dynamic models to investigate and identify the impact of socio-economic and demographic characteristics, building age, energy prices, and weather conditions on residential energy demand at the state level from 2005 to 2013. Next, this study proposes two alternative scenarios to reduce residential energy demand based on the most precise model. For every 10,000 dollars of per capita income in each state: (1) increasing residential electricity price by 1 cent per kW h and (2) decreasing average building age by 1%. In the first scenario, the findings indicate that annual residential electricity demand would decrease by 7.3% on average, with the highest reductions in Washington (11.9%), North Dakota (10.9%), and Idaho (9.7%). In the second scenario, residential gas demand would decrease by an average of 15.8% annually, with the highest reduction in Connecticut (33.2%) followed by New York (33.0%) and Massachusetts (30.7%). These proposed scenarios assist policymakers in optimizing decisions and investments to reduce residential energy consumption.     

The impact of price expectations on the demand for electrical energy in the United States

Given the variability of the price of electrical energy over the past several years, the consumer has been put in a position of not knowing precisely from one month to the next what the price of electrical energy will be. Consequently, this paper hypothesises a relationship between the expected price and kilowatt-hour sales. The results indicate that “static expectations” seem to be the rule with regard to price and that more than 65 per cent of price changes are regarded as permanent by consumers.     

The determinants of energy demand in the EEC area

In this study the energy demand of a fairly homogeneous group of advanced countries is investigated, both individually by country and in total. The aim is to build an energy demand model on economic a priori criteria. From the alternative models tried the one based on a pooled cross-section time-series technique produces the most promising results as it is able to pick up a significant price elasticity. The forecasting performance of the pooled model suggests that there has not been a shift of the demand curve during the crisis period 1971–1974 but simply a movement along it. Finally, based on the findings of the study, forecasts of the EEC energy requirements in 1980 are made.     

Nuclear energy for the United States

The historical trend toward increasing electrification is expected to continue, requiring substantial increases in U.S. electric power generating capacity. Nuclear power and coal are expected to be the only alternatives capable of making a major contribution to meeting this demand for the next several decades. This paper examines what nuclear could do to assure the United States of adequate supplies of energy at reasonable prices through the turn of the century and beyond. The approach used was to determine how rapidly nuclear generating capacity could be expanded if a national commitment was made to solve the licensing, regulatory and political problems which are currently discouraging utilities from making further nuclear commitments. It was concluded that a total of 550 GWe of nuclear capacity could be in operation by the year 2000. Achieving this desirable goal would require a strong commitment by government and industry to work together to replace the current adversary relationship with one of mutual cooperation.     

Electric supply and demand in the United States: next 10 years

The structure and activities of the North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC) are described. Their forecasts for the ten years ahead are discussed. Key issues that could prevent meeting reliability goals are highlighted     

Disaggregate energy consumption and industrial output in the United States

This paper investigates the effect of disaggregate energy consumption on industrial output in the United States. Most of the related research utilizes aggregate data which may not indicate the relative strength or explanatory power of various energy inputs on output. We use monthly data and employ the generalized variance decomposition approach to assess the relative impacts of energy and employment on real output. Our results suggest that unexpected shocks to coal, natural gas and fossil fuel energy sources have the highest impacts on the variation of output, while several renewable sources exhibit considerable explanatory power as well. However, none of the energy sources explain more of the forecast error variance of industrial output than employment.     

The dynamics of United Kingdom regional energy demand

Differences in regional energy-elasticities may be caused by relative differences in primary energy sources and endowments but they may also arise from differences in economic structure and/or consumption behaviour. This paper examines some long-run energy demand relationships across three sectors — domestic, industrial/commercial and transport in Scotland, Northern Ireland and the United Kingdom as a whole. The use of cointegration and error correction techniques uncovers differences in dynamic response between the energy-rich Scottish region and the energy-poor Northern Ireland region. There are significantly lower short-run price-elasticities in all sectors in Northern Ireland than in Scotland and the United Kingdom overall, whereas the income-elasticities in the energy-poor region are larger.     

Acid rain control and United States energy policy

The U.S. Congress is currently considering whether to legislate a control program to reduce the perceived effects of acid rain. The effects of such a program would be costly, wide-ranging and would have important implications for the development of U.S. energy policy over the next several decades. The proposals call for reductions of between 30 and 50% in emissions of SO₂ in the eastern U.S. Costs of achieving these reductions are estimated to be in the range of $4–12 billion annually over the next 20 yr or so. In addition to the obvious economic impacts, there will be major energy implications, arising from shifts in the patterns of U.S. coal production and consumption; coal resource, transportation and employment effects; electricity price increases; changes in electric utility system mix; effects on manufacturing industries; and penetration of innovative energy technology. The anticipated effects of acid rain control programs in these areas are discussed, together with creative new ways to address the acid rain issue, including targeted control strategies, emissions bubbling and early retirement.     

美国生物质能的发展状况及对我国的启示

2006年美国燃料乙醇产量为1 742万t,生物柴油产量90万t.2012年美国可再生燃料年利用量将增加到341亿L.美国发展生物质能主要目的是保护美国农民利益,通过政府引导,市场调节促进生物质能的产业发展;为了有效地规避风险,美国芝加哥期货交易所推出燃料乙醇期货.对我国的启示是,发展燃料乙醇不能照搬美国的模式,我国燃料乙醇要走多元化道路,政府要加大科研、开发的扶持力度,以及加强中美在生物质能领域的合作等.     

Increasing the role of alternative and renewable energy sources in the energy strategy of the United States

The paper describes briefly the energy initiatives of President George Bush that underlay the National Energy Policy of America and the Energy Bill that was adopted in 2006. Since 2001, America has allocated nearly 10 billion dollars to develop ecologically clean and reliable energy sources. It is noted that large investments will be directed to the development of clean coal technologies with zero emission of harmful substances, revolutionary solar and wind technologies, and safe nuclear energy.     

Net energy from the extraction of oil and gas in the United States

One technique for evaluating the costs of energy systems is net energy analysis, which compares the quantity of energy delivered to society by an energy system to the energy used directly and indirectly in the delivery process, a quantity called the energy return on investment (EROI). Such an investigation involves aggregating different energy flows. A variety of methods have been proposed, but none has received universal acceptance. This paper shows that the method of aggregation has crucial effects on the results of the analysis. It is argued that economic approaches such as the index or marginal product method are superior because they account for differences in quality among fuels. The thermal equivalent and quality-corrected EROI for petroleum extraction in the US show the same general pattern: a rise to a maximum in the early 1970s, a sharp decline throughout the 1970s, a recovery in the 1980s, and then another modest decline in the 1990s. However, the quality-corrected EROI is consistently much lower than the thermal equivalent EROI, and it declines faster and to a greater extent than the thermal-equivalent EROI. The results indicate that quality corrections have important effects on the results of energy analyses. The overall decline in the EROI for petroleum extraction in the US suggests that depletion has raised the energy costs of extraction. This is generally consistent with the overall pattern of oil extraction, i.e. both extraction and the EROI for extraction show a decline since the early 1970s.     

United States energy supplies for the 21st century

We present an overview of likely sources of needed United States energy supplies for the 21st century.     

Plug-in hybrid electric vehicle impacts on hourly electricity demand in the United States

In this study we explore the effects of different charging behaviors of PHEVs in the United States on electricity demand profiles and energy use, in terms of time of day and location (at home, the workplace, or public areas). Based on driving behavior statistics on vehicle distance traveled and daily trips (US DOT, 2003) in the US, we develop a simulation algorithm to estimate the PHEV charging profiles of electricity demand with plausible plug-in times and depth of discharge of the PHEVs.     

Human capital and energy consumption: Evidence from OECD countries

We examine the effect of human capital on energy consumption for a panel of OECD economies over the period 1965–2014. Our preferred results, which account for cross-sectional dependence and structural breaks, suggest that a one standard deviation increase in human capital reduces aggregate energy consumption by 15.36%. When we distinguish between clean and dirty energy consumption, we find that human capital generates significant positive externalities for the environment. Specifically, we find that a one standard deviation increase in human capital is associated with a 17.33% decrease in dirty energy consumption and an 85.54% increase in clean energy consumption. Our findings reinforce the social benefits of investing in human capital and suggest a promising avenue for energy conservation without impeding economic growth.     

Analysis of renewable energy development to power generation in the United States

Renewable energy resources have historically played a small role for electricity generation in the US. However, concerns such as security of energy supply, limitations and price fluctuations of fossil fuels, and threats of climate changes have encouraged US policy makers to think and debate about diversification strategy in the energy supply and promotion of renewables. The current paper discusses the role of renewable portfolio in the US energy action plan during 2010–2030. A system dynamics model is constructed to evaluate different costs of renewable energy utilization by 2030. Results show that while renewables will create a market with near 10 billion $ worth (in the costs level) in 2030, the total value of renewable energy promotion and utilization in the US will be more than 170 billion $(in the costs level) during 2010–2030.     

Electricity consumption and energy savings potential of video game consoles in the United States

Total energy consumption of video game consoles has grown rapidly in the past few decades due to rapid increases in market penetration, power consumption of the devices, and increasing usage driven by new capabilities. Unfortunately, studies investigating the energy impacts of these devices have been limited and potential responses, such as ENERGY STAR requirements, have been difficult to define and implement. We estimate that the total electricity consumption of video game consoles in the US was around 11?TWh in 2007 and 16?TWh in 2010 (approximately 1?% of US residential electricity consumption), an increase of almost 50?% in 3?years. However, any estimate of total game console energy consumption is highly uncertain, and we have determined that the key uncertainty is the unknown consumer behavior with regards to powering down the system after use. Even under this uncertainty, we demonstrate that the most effective energy-saving modification is incorporation of a default auto power down feature, which could reduce electricity consumption of game consoles by 75?% (10?TWh reduction of electricity in 2010), saving consumers over $1 billion annually in electricity bills. We conclude that using an auto power down feature for game consoles is at least as effective for reducing energy consumption as implementing a strict set of energy efficiency improvements for the devices, is much easier to implement given the nature of the video game console industry, and could be applied retroactively to currently deployed consoles through firmware updates.     

Wind power systems for zero net energy housing in the United States

This work investigates the feasibility of renewable energy housing development in the U.S. using wind power and solar thermal systems to attain zero net energy consumption. The over all objective was to determine how the wind power and solar thermal system designs and economics differ with various climates, wind and solar resources, energy prices, and state incentives, such as net-metering. Five U.S. cities, one in each of the five climate zones, were selected for this study based on their potential for wind power. A zero net energy housing design tool was developed in order to analyze and compare various system designs. The energy performance and economics of the designs were compared for various sizes of housing development, for seven turbine models, and selected heating systems. The results suggest that while there are some economical options for wind powered zero net energy housing developments, they are generally more expensive (except in the warmest climate zone) than housing with natural gas heating. In all of the cases, the economies of scale for large-scale wind turbines gave more of an economic advantage than net-metering programs gave small- and medium-scale wind turbines.     

Projected impacts of climate change on wind energy density in the United States

Wind-generated electricity is a growing renewable energy resource. Because wind results from the uneven heating (and resulting pressure gradients) of the Earth, future wind resources may be affected by anticipated climate change. Many studies have used global and regional climate models to predict trends in the future wind resource over the continental United States. While some of these studies identified regions that are expected to gain wind energy, their results often come with a high degree of uncertainty, and lack of agreement across different climate models. In this paper we focus on wind energy density as a measure of the available wind resource over the continental United States. We estimate the change in wind energy density from the period 1968–2000 to the period 2038–2070 by using output from four regional climate models from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). We find strong agreement across all 4 models that the wind energy resource is expected to increase in parts of Kansas, Oklahoma, and northern Texas – a region already in possession of both large scale generating capacity and political support for wind energy.     

大数据驱动的我国新能源汽车需求分析

文章基于网络搜索大数据,以新能源汽车为例,结合统计学和计量经济学理论与方法,利用斯皮尔曼相关系数、协整检验和格兰杰因果关系,检验分析了搜索指数与新能源汽车实际需求之间的关系。以新能源汽车历史销量作为单一变量建立自回归滑动平均模型(ARMA),并与加入了搜索指数的向量自回归模型(VAR)进行比较。结果表明,加入搜索指数的预测模型相较传统的预测模型,在样本期内和样本期外的预测精度分别提高了11.69%和14.95%。该模型只需利用前4个月的新能源汽车销售数据和网络搜索大数据,就能够准确地预测下一个月的需求,在提高预测时效性的同时,也为个人、企业和政府决策提供可靠的依据。