Empirical estimates of the direct rebound effect: A review

Improvements in energy efficiency make energy services cheaper, and therefore encourage increased consumption of those services. This so-called direct rebound effect offsets the energy savings that may otherwise be achieved. This paper provides an overview of the theoretical and methodological issues relevant to estimating the direct rebound effect and summarises the empirical estimates that are currently available. The paper focuses entirely on household energy services, since this is where most of the evidence lies and points to a number of potential sources of bias that may lead the effect to be overestimated. For household energy services in the OECD, the paper concludes that the direct rebound effect should generally be less than 30%.     

An improved approach to estimate direct rebound effect by incorporating energy efficiency: A revisit of China's industrial energy demand

The rebound effect, or the response to energy efficiency improvement, has drawn considerable attention from economists and policymakers. However, the magnitude remains quite controversial because of the differences in the definitions and methods being used. Originating from the definition of direct rebound effect, we develop an improved approach incorporating energy efficiency. The main advantages of the proposed approach are twofold. First, it enables us to estimate the demand elasticity of useful energy service with respect to energy service price. The estimates are more consistent with the definition of rebound effect and are more effective. Second, it decomposes direct rebound effect into substitution and output channels, enabling us to further understand the microeconomic mechanisms. Applying this method, we assess the direct energy rebound effect in China's industrial sectors. We find that the direct rebound effect for the industry is 37.0%, and the substitution and output channels contribute to 13.1% and 23.9%, respectively. Substantial variations in the magnitudes and mechanisms occur by sector. For heavy industry, most energy rebound is induced by output expansion because of its sizeable cost decrease from efficiency improvements. Unlike heavy industry, most energy rebound in light industry comes from substituting energy service for other inputs because firms in light industry are more flexible in adjusting production inputs. Our results provide evidences for the importance of energy efficiency measures, and highlight the necessity of differentiated measures according to the sectoral characteristics.     

Economic and environmental gains of China's fossil energy subsidies reform: A rebound effect case study with EIMO model

Energy consumption and efficiency emerged as the hottest topic in the context of China's sustainable development. Energy subsidies and “rebound effect” were closely related to this topic while few combinative studies on them with a focus on China. This paper employed a co-thinking approach, focusing on how the energy subsidies reform could mitigate the rebound effect in China, and how to achieve an “economic and environmental gains” that reduced pecuniary spending, improved the distorted energy market and reduced energy consumption simultaneously. Firstly, with price-gap approach we calculated the total energy subsidies scale of China in 2007, which amounted to582.0 billion CNY; then we detected and identified rebound effect of China energy consumption with the features. Furthermore, based on China 2007 monetary input–output table and energy flow analysis, we compiled a hybrid physical energy input and monetary output model (EIMO) to simulate the mitigation effect of subsidies reform. Results showed that removing energy subsidies would decrease ultimate demand of different economy sectors and reduce the accumulatively physical consumption of coal, oil, natural gas and electricity by 17.74, 13.47, 3.64 and 15.82 million tce, respectively. Finally we discussed relevant policy issues on China's energy subsidies reform in depth.     

Energy rebound effect in China's Industry: An aggregate and disaggregate analysis

Considering the crucial role of industrial sectors in energy conservation, this paper investigates the impact of output growth on energy consumption in China's industrial sectors with an index decomposition model and the energy rebound effect in the industrial sectors with a panel data model using the annual data during 1994–2012. The empirical results indicate that: first, industrial output growth is proved to be the major factor in promoting industrial energy consumption, while energy intensity reduction and structure shifts across industrial sub-sectors play the dominant roles in slowing down industrial energy consumption. Second, there does exist energy rebound effect in China's aggregate Industry, which ranges from 20% to 76% during 1995–2012 (or 39% on average). In particular, the energy rebound effect in Manufacturing is relatively smaller during the sample period (i.e., 28% on average). Finally, the energy rebound effect in both China's aggregate Industry and Manufacturing exhibit an overall decreasing trend over time.     

Estimation of global rebound effect caused by energy efficiency improvement

Rebound effect refers to the phenomenon that the actual reduction in energy use and emissions is less than the expected reduction caused by an energy efficiency improvement due to induced behavior adjustment of relevant economic agents. This article studies the global rebound effects on energy use and related emissions caused by an energy efficiency improvement. We adopt a global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to design a scenario of energy efficiency improvement, which is compared to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario to identify the global rebound effect. Our results show very large rebound effect on energy use (70%) and related emissions (90%) in 2040 at the global level with regional and sectoral differences. Important determinants, among others, are induced labor movement among economic activities and labor supply, and substitution elasticity between energy and other goods. Labor mobility has a marked impact on both rebound effects and on fuel mix. The global rebound effect is still considerable even with a low substitution elasticity between energy and other goods. The effect of capital accumulation over time contributes marginally to the global rebound effect as it is utilized to promote economic growth by using energy input more efficiently.     

Measuring energy rebound effect in the Chinese economy: An economic accounting approach

Estimating the magnitude of China's economy-wide rebound effect has attracted much attention in recent years. Most existing studies measure the rebound effect through the additional energy consumption from technological progress. However, in general technological progress is not equivalent to energy efficiency improvement. Consequently, their estimation may be misleading. To overcome the limitation, this paper develops an alternative approach for estimating energy rebound effect. Based on the proposed approach, China's economy-wide energy rebound effect is revisited. The empirical result shows that during the period 1981–2011 the rebound effects in China are between 30% and 40%, with an average value of 34.3%.     

Assessing the rebound effect using a natural experiment setting: Evidence from the private transportation sector in Israel

Subsidizing energy-efficient technologies is considered by energy and environmental organizations to be one of the most effective policies for decreasing energy consumption. In the transportation sector such policies are becoming ever more popular, and have been implemented in a considerable number of countries in recent years. Because these policies promote energy-efficient cars with lower usage costs, they may rebound and increase the distances traveled by households that have switched to energy-efficient cars. From an econometric perspective, a subsidization policy can be used as a valid instrument to identify the households’ choice of energy efficiency levels of the cars they own. This identification, in turn, can be utilized to account for endogeneity in the estimation of a rebound effect. The present study uses a natural experiment setting of such a policy implemented in Israel in 2009. The empirical results indicate a fairly large average rebound effect of 40%. The results also indicate that while the policy indeed encouraged the purchase of energy-efficient cars, households that bought a new or used car during the surveyed period did not generate a rebound effect of a different magnitude compared with other households that did not. We discuss the implications of our findings.     

The economy-wide rebound effect from improved energy efficiency in Swedish industries–A general equilibrium analysis

The objective of this paper is to analyse the rebound effect from increased efficiency in industrial energy use in Sweden. Energy efficiency improvements can have significant micro- and macroeconomic effects that hamper the positive effect on real energy savings. To assess the size of the overall rebound effect in the Swedish economy, we apply a computable general equilibrium model. The results show that the economy-wide rebound effect depends on a number of factors, e.g. the extent of the energy efficiency improvement, how the labour market is modelled as well as whether the increase in energy efficiency is combined with a cost or not. We find that the rebound effect following a five per cent increase in energy efficiency in the Swedish industry lies in the 40–70 per cent range. When energy efficiency is only improved in energy-intensive production, the rebound effect becomes even higher. These findings are in line with the results in the literature.     

Regional energy rebound effect: The impact of economy-wide and sector level energy efficiency improvement in Georgia,USA

Rebound effect is defined as the lost part of ceteris paribus energy savings from improvements on energy efficiency. In this paper, we investigate economy-wide energy rebound effects by developing a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for Georgia, USA. The model adopts a highly disaggregated sector profile and highlights the substitution possibilities between different energy sources in the production structure. These two features allow us to better characterize the change in energy use in face of an efficiency shock, and to explore in detail how a sector-level shock propagates throughout the economic structure to generate aggregate impacts. We find that with economy-wide energy efficiency improvement on the production side, economy-wide rebound is moderate. Energy price levels fall very slightly, yet sectors respond to these changing prices quite differently in terms of local production and demand. Energy efficiency improvements in particular sectors (epicenters) induce quite different economy-wide impacts. In general, we expect large rebound if the epicenter sector is an energy production sector, a direct upstream/downstream sector of energy production sectors, a transportation sector or a sector with high production elasticity. Our analysis offers valuable insights for policy makers aiming to achieve energy conservation through increasing energy efficiency.     

International spillover and rebound effects from increased energy efficiency in Germany

The pollution/energy leakage literature raises the concern that policies implemented in one country, such as a carbon tax or tight energy restrictions, might simply result in the reallocation of energy use to other countries. This paper addresses these concerns in the context of policies to increase energy efficiency, rather than direct action to reduce energy use. Using a global CGE simulation model, we extend the analyses of ‘economy-wide’ rebound from the national focus of previous studies to incorporate international spill-over effects from trade in goods and services. Our focus is to investigate whether these effects have the potential to increase or reduce the overall (global) rebound of local energy efficiency improvements. In the case we consider, increased energy efficiency in German production generates changes in comparative advantage that produce negative leakage effects, thereby actually rendering global rebound less than national rebound.     

The rebound effect on road freight transport: Empirical evidence from Portugal

Because a large proportion of total operating costs for transportation companies goes towards energy, a reduction in energy operating costs, brought about by an increase in fleet fuel efficiency, or an increase in operational efficiency, results in a change in the relative cost of road freight transportation. This fact could result in an increase in the demand for such services. If this is true, the result would be an increase in total fuel consumption. Consequently, that part of the energy savings obtained through the increased energy efficiency would be lost. The existence of a “Rebound Effect” is especially important in the road freight transportation sector and is crucial for the definition of a national energy policy.     

The impacts of energy prices on energy intensity: Evidence from China

In this paper, we present a review of the deregulation of energy prices in China between 1985 and 2004 and assess the impacts of changes in energy prices on aggregate energy intensity and coal/oil/electricity intensity. We used time series data to provide estimates of energy price elasticities. Empirical results showed that: (1) The own-price elasticities of coal, oil, and aggregate energy were negative in periods both before and after 1995, implying that higher relative prices of different energy types lead to the decrease in coal, oil, and aggregate energy intensities. However, the positive own-price elasticity of electricity after 1995 probably indicates that the price effect was weaker than other factors such as income effect and population effect. (2) The impacts of energy prices were asymmetric over time. (3) Sectoral adjustment also drove the decrease in aggregate energy intensity. Although raising energy prices to boost efficiency of energy use seems to be an effective policy tool, other policy implications concerned with energy prices, such as energy supply security and fuel poverty, must also be considered.     

The effect of the feed-in-system policy on renewable energy investments: Evidence from the EU countries

We study the effect of the Feed-in-System (FIS) policy on wind and solar photovoltaic energy investments in the European Union (EU), over the time period between 1992 and 2015, considering the heterogeneity of the policies and market conditions across the EU countries. We develop a FIS subsidy performance indicator that distinguishes feed-in-tariff (FIT) from feed-in-premium (FIP) and considers other important aspects of each of these contracts, such as the duration, tariff price, energy spot price and production costs, as well as the market conditions. We conclude that the mere existence of the FIS policy does not necessarily enhance renewable energy investments, it depends on the type of the FIS contract and its features, and may vary across the different sources of renewable energy. Some of our findings are new to the literature and can have important implications in the development of new public investment incentives to promote renewable energy.     

Threshold effect of the economic growth rate on the renewable energy development from a change in energy price: Evidence from OECD countries

This paper uses a panel threshold regression (PTR) model to investigate the influence that energy prices have on renewable energy development under different economic growth rate regimes. The empirical data are obtained from each of the OECD member-countries over the period from 1997 to 2006. We show that there is one threshold in the regression relationship, which is 4.13% of a one-period lag in the annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate. The consumer price index (CPI), in so far as it relates to variations in energy, is significantly positively correlated with the contribution of renewables to energy supply in the regime with higher-economic growth, but there is no relationship in the regime with lower economic growth. Therefore, countries characterized by high-economic growth are able to respond to high energy prices with increases in renewable energy use, while countries characterized by low-economic growth countries tend to be unresponsive to energy price changes when they come to their level of renewable energy.     

Direct energy rebound effect for road passenger transport in China: A dynamic panel quantile regression approach

The transport sector appears a main energy consumer in China and plays a significant role in energy conservation. Improving energy efficiency proves an effective way to reduce energy consumption in transport sector, whereas its effectiveness may be affected by the rebound effect. This paper proposes a dynamic panel quantile regression model to estimate the direct energy rebound effect for road passenger transport in the whole country, eastern, central and western China, respectively, based on the data of 30 provinces from 2003 to 2012. The empirical results reveal that, first of all, the direct rebound effect does exist for road passenger transport and on the whole country, the short-term and long-term direct rebound effects are 25.53% and 26.56% on average, respectively. Second, the direct rebound effect for road passenger transport in central and eastern China tends to decrease, increase and then decrease again, whereas that in western China decreases and then increases, with the increasing passenger kilometers. Finally, when implementing energy efficiency policy in road passenger transport sector, the effectiveness of energy conservation in western China proves much better than that in central China overall, while the effectiveness in central China is relatively better than that in eastern China.     

China's energy consumption: A perspective from Divisia aggregation approach

China's total energy consumption, according to the official data, decreased impressively during 1997–1998 and increased sharply during 2003–2007, which in turn resulted in energy intensity fluctuation. Many literatures explained this “unusual phenomenon” from the perspectives of technical change, economic structure shifting and statistical data quality. They measured aggregate energy in thermal units by using linear summation approaches. In this paper, from the perspectives of heterogeneity and imperfect substitutability among diverse energy types, we further examine China's aggregate energy consumption by using Divisia (Sato-Vartia) approach. The results show that China's aggregate energy consumption and intensity fluctuated slightly less than values calculated by using conventional linear approaches, and the “unusual phenomenon” is partly explained. It also implies that China's energy intensity changes in 2006–2007 are slightly more optimistic than those officially reported, and the official communiqué of provincial energy intensity reduction achievements are partly bias. Some provincial achievement are underestimated or overestimated on some provinces. Our empirical results are also helpful to further research, such as energy–economic modeling, energy price elasticity, and elasticity of substitution among capital–labor–energy–material (KLEM). The difficulties or defects when using Divisia approach are also discussed in this paper.     

Industrial relocation and energy consumption: Evidence from China

With economic development and the change of industrial structure, industrial relocation is an inevitable trend. In the process of industrial relocation, environmental externality and social cost could occur due to market failure and government failure. Little attention has been paid to this issue. In this paper, we address it with a theoretical analysis and an empirical investigation on the relationship between China's industrial relocation in the early 1990s and energy consumption which is the primary source of CO₂ emission, an environmental externality that causes increasing concerns. The macro-policy analysis suggests that there would be a positive link between China's industrial relocation in the early 1990s and energy saving (and environmental externalities reduction). Using fixed-effect regression model and simulation method, we provide an empirical support to this argument. In order to further reduce environmental externalities and social cost in the process of industrial relocation, we provide policy suggestions as follows: First, strengthen the evaluation of environmental benefits/costs; Second, pay more attention to the coordinated social-economic development; Third, avoid long-lived investment in high-carbon infrastructure in areas with industries moved in; Fourth, address employment issue in the areas with industries moved out.     

A new approach to measuring the rebound effect associated to energy efficiency improvements: An application to the US residential energy demand

This paper brings attention to the fact that the energy demand frontier model introduced by Filippini and Hunt (2011, 2012) is closely connected to the measurement of the so-called rebound effect associated with improvements in energy efficiency. In particular, we show that their model implicitly imposes a zero rebound effect, which contradicts most of the available empirical evidence on this issue. We relax this restrictive assumption through the modelling of a rebound-effect function that mitigates or intensifies the effect of an efficiency improvement on energy consumption. We illustrate our model with an empirical application that aims to estimate a US frontier residential aggregate energy demand function using panel data for 48 states over the period 1995 to 2011. Average values of the rebound effect in the range of 56–80% are found. Therefore, policymakers should be aware that most of the expected energy reduction from efficiency improvements may not be achieved.     

China's energy and emissions outlook to 2050: Perspectives from bottom-up energy end-use model

Although China became the world's largest CO₂ emitter in 2007, the country has also taken serious actions to reduce its energy and carbon intensity. This study uses the bottom-up LBNL China End-Use Energy Model to assess the role of energy efficiency policies in transitioning China to a lower emission trajectory and meeting its 2020 intensity reduction goals. Two scenarios – Continued Improvement and Accelerated Improvement – were developed to assess the impact of actions already taken by the Chinese government as well as planned and potential actions, and to evaluate the potential for China to reduce energy demand and emissions. This scenario analysis presents an important modeling approach based in the diffusion of end-use technologies and physical drivers of energy demand and thereby help illuminate China's complex and dynamic drivers of energy consumption and implications of energy efficiency policies. The findings suggest that China's CO₂ emissions will not likely continue growing throughout this century because of saturation effects in appliances, residential and commercial floor area, roadways, fertilizer use; and population peak around 2030 with slowing urban population growth. The scenarios also underscore the significant role that policy-driven efficiency improvements will play in meeting 2020 carbon mitigation goals along with a decarbonized power supply.     

Effects of diversified openness channels on the total-factor energy efficiency in China's manufacturing sub-sectors: Evidence from trade and FDI spillovers

Unparalleled, wide-spread, innovative, even intrusive are all words regularly used to describe the tremendous growth that has seen China has a well-established manufacturing system. It happened so quickly that it is often easy to lose sight of the factors that led to this success and, moreover, the costs that may have been paid by the environment. The burgeoning “Made in China 2025” strategy is firmly based on the premise of modernizing manufacturing and becoming a mode for environmentally-friendly practice. But these are goals that cannot reasonably be separated from the need to improve total factor energy efficiency (TFEE) across the manufacturing. Therefore, we investigated the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) and trade on the TFEE of China's manufacturing at the sub-sector level. Specifically, we assessed capital stocks with a heterogeneous non-fixed depreciation method and used multi stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) models with linear-form inefficient variables to measure credited TFEE in 26 sectors of manufacturing from 2000 to 2016. To deepen our analysis, we also conducted an overall and period-by-period analysis with a modified STRIPAT model and feasible generalized least squares (FGLS) estimation. Our analysis shows an average TFEE of 0.7471 for China's manufacturing, but with several significant differences between the 26 sectors. Trade and FDI spillovers showed an overall increase across the period, with the highest export elasticity at 0.0607%. High-tech industries were generally quite efficient, while the elasticity coefficient of 0.0276% shows that increasing imports is an effective method of improving TFEE for energy-intensive sub-sectors. The regression analysis by periods reveals that the positive effect of imports gradually improved over time but, of the three FDI spillover effects modeled, only backward spillovers had a positive impact.