全球大城市与低碳:从概念规划到综合模型

下个世纪到来之前,越南的河内市预计将成为一个拥有4000万人口的城市密集体,一个全球化的巨型城市。"巨型城市"的定义是人口超过千万的城市。预计到2015年,亚洲(全世界大部分城市化进程都发生在这里)可能出现多达60个巨型城市,将有共计6亿人定居。这一数字将在此后的几十年内急剧增加,到本世纪末将有超过20亿人生活在巨型城市之中。低碳性能是新一轮城市发展可持续性规划的基本方面。可持续发展总体规划包括4个方面,即能源使用的经营、与建筑相关的隐含能源、能源供应基础设施以及其他基础设施(如交通、废物、水、污水等)。这些方面需要在初步的概念设计阶段就给予充分的考虑,对于巨型城市而言,不全面的规划将会对碳排放和能源消耗造成深远的影响,因此更需要对以上各方面进行充分考虑。本文介绍了如何利用城市规模的模型来评估低碳规划和设计的这些方面,该模型也被称为整个城市及建设用地层面的能源与环境预测模型(EEP-Urban)。     

A study of energy efficiency of private office buildings in Hong Kong

A benchmark study of the energy efficiency of private office buildings in Hong Kong was conducted in 2002 because energy efficiency was declining. In the study, private office buildings were divided into five user groups. For each group, a multiple regression model was developed to find the relationship between Energy Use Intensities (EUIs) and other factors, such as operating hours, for normalization and benchmarking purposes. In this paper we make use of the regression results to study the energy efficiency of private office buildings by different grades. In Hong Kong, office buildings are divided into three grades (A, B, and C) based on the quality of the facility, which is reflected in rental values; a Grade A office building denotes expensive luxury. We found that the EUI of Grade A office buildings is the highest, consuming over 50% of the total energy used in office buildings. Recently, the annual EUI of office buildings has improved even though Grade A floor space is increasing. This may be due to the promotion of the energy efficiency program launched in the last decade.     

Decoupling of building energy use and climate

Energy use intensity (EUI) and climate have a well documented correlation, which is generally applied in building energy management. Green buildings have sought to greatly reduce energy consumption and a number of examples are documented in the literature. A sample of high performance buildings constructed in a variety of global locations is analyzed here, and provides evidence that measures to reduce energy consumption have reduced EUI to the point where its correlation with heating degree days is no longer apparent. This result suggests that end-user behaviour is the next major hurdle in lowering the energy consumption of greener buildings.     

基于地理信息系统的城市建筑能耗模型建立方法

为降低城市快速膨胀导致的能源消耗及温室气体总量,城市环境建筑能耗分析已经成为研究热点,但是城市环境中区域建筑能耗模型尚处于初步研究阶段。随着我国城市地理信息系统及相关数据库的完善,为建立准确且预测功能完善的建筑能耗模型提供了便利条件。重点探讨根据城市地理信息系统及相关统计数据,建立三维城市环境建筑动态能耗模型。重点分析了可能遇到的主要问题及解决方法,包括如何简化地理信息系统的数据、考虑城市建筑复杂性、模型建立的自动化完成、全局敏感性分析节能措施等。并且用2个实例说明处理空间规模不同的建筑群可采用的不同建模方法。研究不仅为城市节能提供指导,也为建筑信息模型的发展和促进城市规划领域中建筑能耗模型的广泛应用提供了坚实基础。     

城市规划管理体制如何应对全球气候变化?

城市是全球温室气体排放的重要源头,通过规划、建筑设计施工、交通、城市产业结构调整、能源供求规划等领域,城市的建设过程可以提供有效及必要的控制温室气体排放的手段。城市规划的思维也要因此而作出改变,向如何可以通过城市发展创新模式和决策,在"减缓"(mitigation)和"适应("adaptation)两大战略方向应对气候变化。本文先对全球气候变化问题,特别是其对城市发展建设带来的挑战作出表述,同时也分析了当前世界上其他城市的应对方法及手段作为参考。最后,本文建议以低碳城市为目标的整合城市规划决策体制框架,对目前传统城市规划过程作出目标及方法上的修改,以达到控制气候变化及温室气体排放的城市规划目的。     

从绿色建筑体系视角浅谈生态城市规划建设

绿色建筑体系是生态城市建设的核心内容之一,但目前绿色建筑体系难以有效的应用在城市生态规划建设中,无法充分发挥其节能低碳的价值。本文通过借鉴绿色建筑体系的四大特点,总结出生态城市建设中绿色开放空间网络、分布式能源系统、土地开发模式、城市规划管理等四个方面的应对之道。希望能为城市生态规划思路提供研究依据,为建设实施提出方向。     

A decision tree method for building energy demand modeling

This paper reports the development of a building energy demand predictive model based on the decision tree method. This method is able to classify and predict categorical variables: its competitive advantage over other widely used modeling techniques, such as regression method and ANN method, lies in the ability to generate accurate predictive models with interpretable flowchart-like tree structures that enable users to quickly extract useful information. To demonstrate its applicability, the method is applied to estimate residential building energy performance indexes by modeling building energy use intensity (EUI) levels. The results demonstrate that the use of decision tree method can classify and predict building energy demand levels accurately (93% for training data and 92% for test data), identify and rank significant factors of building EUI automatically. The method can provide the combination of significant factors as well as the threshold values that will lead to high building energy performance. Moreover, the average EUI value of data records in each classified data subsets can be used for reference when performing prediction. One crucial benefit is improving building energy performance and reducing energy consumption. Another advantage of this methodology is that it can be utilized by users without requiring much computation knowledge.     

低碳城市建设与建筑区域能源规划

介绍了低碳城市建设和我国城市规划与发展中存在的问题,提出了低碳城市建设过程中建筑区域能源规划的意义、原则、规划方法和流程,并对建筑区域能源的类型和选择作了初步探讨。     

探究夏热冬冷地区办公建筑面积对单位建筑面积能耗(EUI)的影响

以上海地区的气象参数作为夏热冬冷气候区的典型代表,提出"H/S——建筑形状系数"并作为建筑形状分类指标,对办公建筑分类建模,采用能耗模拟软件e QUEST进行能耗估算,并用SPSS软件做逐步线性回归分析,探究建筑总面积、建筑形态与单位建筑面积年能耗(EUI)之间的数学关系。研究表明:1单位建筑面积能耗(EUI)随建筑总面积的增加而减少。2总面积越小的单体建筑,面积变化对能耗影响越大。3越"瘦高"的建筑,建筑能耗越大。     

历史城区交通节能减排的空间规划理论

历史城区是城市文化和经济集聚区,也是交通拥堵和交通污染的重点区域,如何减少历史城区的交通能源消耗是当前世界各国可持续旧城更新与宜居城市建设的首要问题之一。本文从交通节能的三个关键要素：制度保障、技术创新和社会转型出发,深入分析了空间规划对于历史中心城区交通节能的影响绩效,分别探讨了空间规划对于交通节能的可能性、高效性、公平性和操作性,从而总结出空间规划与历史城区交通能源消耗的理论关系,并为中国城市历史城区的交通节能和减排提出规划建议。     

迈向“正气候”目标的中国城市规划建设路径图

我国的《国民经济和社会发展第十三个五年规划纲要》于2016年3月17日发布,其中应对全球气候变化内容包括具体任务如“推进工业、能源、建筑、交通等重点领域低碳发展。支持优化开发区域率先实现碳排放达到峰值。深化各类低碳试点,实施近零碳排放区示范工程”。我们要从城区空间与多元化手段整合的要求上,通过创新规划、设计、运营路径达到零碳排放的整体净效应。我们需要提出 “正气候” 的城市项目发展模式,作为未来我国城市通过城区建设更新带来的机遇,迈向零碳排放的手段。正气候发展模式一方面要求把未来新建城区的碳排放量最少化,同时也要把握城区发展和更新的机遇, 使周边地区碳排放量减低的正外部性（如城市空间（如土地-交通）结构重组、推动绿色建筑、周边社区减碳项目的投资、既有建筑节能改造、 推动市场手段与体制改革等,最后使在运营阶段达到“净负排放”整体效果。这就是“正气候”效果。 迈向正气候的城区发展模式,需要在目前我国法定城市规划与建设流程上提出创新体制,引入“场地内”与“场地外”的减缓碳排放机制, 编制正气候城区建设路径图, 在建设全生命周期内保障减碳排放目标能够被贯彻,于项目完成后在运营阶段达到正气候效果。正气候城区建设模式是我国未来迈向近零碳排放区建设的有效路径。     

城市能源系统改造模拟方法：泰恩河畔纽卡斯尔的当前实践和未来挑战

文章回顾了英国的碳减排议程和当前地方在构建城市能源模型方面的实践与挑战,提出了技术与社会系统相互作用下的模型研究与定量理解中存在的一些缺陷。文章还梳理了对家居行为和能源需求已有的模型方法,以便将研究重点（反弹效应和需求侧管理）以及研究采用的行为模型的基本原理纳入整体研究框架。该模型模拟和量化了技术系统的改造和家居行为之间相互作用中的两个突出部分——反弹效应和需求侧管理。利用这一模型,文章详细阐释了对泰恩河畔纽卡斯尔200套社会住宅的案例研究,研究结果对于旧城改造的规划决策系统建设具有重要的理论与现实意义。     

Interpretation of Low-carbon City Planning and Design——A Case Study of Gaochun Zijin Science and Technology Special Community

It is an important and unique approach of achieving sustainable urban development to save and use energy intensively, reduce carbon emission, and take the low-carbon development road. Taking Gaochun Zijin Science and Technology Special Community for example, this paper introduced planning measures for building a low-carbon city, including building a green network, compound utilization of urban spaces, establishing green transportation, using renewable resources, development of green architecture, so as to provide references for the future researches on the low-carbon urban development.     

建筑学语境下的可持续设计 解读北京动物园水禽馆

北京动物园水禽馆是一个以"零能零碳"为目标的微能耗建筑,设计采用整合设计的思路,从"城市一建筑细部"各个层面进行了深入的研究。项目的最大特点是对可持续发展的建筑学思考,其整体布局、建筑平面组织、剖面组织等方面均从建筑学角度出发,提出合适的解决方案。形式本身是创造性解决可持续设计需求的重要手段。     

Building a GIS Platform for Sustainable Land Management: A Case Study of the City of Čačak,Serbia

The general aim of this research is to contribute to sustainable land management and urban planning practices. An approach for building an urban planning-oriented information platform that could support a sustainable (i.e. environmentally sustainable), socially responsible and economically efficient decision-making process in the future at the municipal level is proposed. The proposed information platform approach relies on and is built for the Geographic Information System (GIS) but includes basic data management principles and the standards of the Spatial Data Information (SDI) concept, namely, INSPIRE. Thus, a model with the two following technical elements for building land management and urban planning based on a general platform or database is proposed in this article: (1) a conceptual Unified Modeling Language (UML) data model for urban planning metadata and data for different types of urban plans and (2) lists of land-use classes and types at the municipal level (included in the UML data model). The proposed approach includes a land-use model and the standardization of urban planning data to build a GIS platform to better integrate various types of data (social, economic, environmental, etc.) and is based on general and detailed urban regulation plans and land governance practices in the City of ?a?ak, Republic of Serbia. Once implemented, the proposed approach is expected to create preconditions for decision making regarding future sustainable land development in ?a?ak and other municipalities in Serbia.     

An analysis to understand how the shape of a concrete residential building influences its embodied energy and embodied carbon

The built environment is recognized as a major hotspot of resource use and environmental impacts. Life Cycle Assessment( LCA) has been increasingly used to assess the environmental impacts of construction products and buildings and a new trend is characterized by the application of LCA to larger systems such as neighborhoods during early design phases. Assessing urban development projects at the master-planning stage raises the issue of inventory data collection,especially for building materials which are reported to account for about 20%of primary energy consumption in buildings,and up to 45% of associated greenhouse gas emissions. Urban planners focus on the urban morphology and little information is know n about the buildings characteristics apart from their general shape. This paper proposes a simplified model for the assessment of buildings embodied energy and embodied carbon in relation w ith urban planners' design levers. The model relies on the decomposition of buildings into functional elements in order to be sensitive to the shape of the buildings. A detailed sensitivity analysis and contribution analysis of the model is conducted on two types of generic building forms,in order to investigate the influence of parameters relating to shape on the embodied energy and embodied carbon of a building. The sensitivity analysis show s that the parameters relating to shape( such as the dimension of the buildings) are more influential on the embodied energy and embodied carbon per square meter of building than the ones relating to the elements themselves( such as the wall thickness). The contribution analysis also brings evidence of the relation betw een the compactness factor and the embodied energy and embodied carbon of a building.     

Analysis of a simplified calibration procedure for 18 design-phase building energy models

This paper evaluates the accuracy of 18 design-phase building energy models, built according to LEED Canada protocol, and investigates the effectiveness of model calibration steps to improve simulation predictions with respect to measured energy data. These calibration steps, applied in professional practice, included inputting actual weather data, adding unregulated loads, revising plug loads (often with submetered data), and other simple updates. In sum, the design-phase energy models underpredicted the total measured energy consumption by 36%. Following the calibration steps, this error was reduced to a net 7% underprediction. For the monthly energy use intensity (EUI), the coefficient of variation of the root mean square error improved from 45% to 24%. Revising plug loads made the largest impact in these cases. This step increased the EUI by 15% median (32% mean) in the models. This impact far exceeded that of calibrating the weather data, even in a sensitivity test using extreme weather years.     

基于低碳发展的城市规划

城市规划对于一个地区有“碳锁定”效应。随着低碳发展成为各个城市的发展战略,如何将低碳发展融于城市规划,如何在城市规划中落实低碳发展理念,已经成为当前城市规划的重要命题。在上海新一轮城市规划中,引导城市低碳发展成为重要的发展目标。从影响城市碳排放的主要因素切入,分析低碳发展对城市规划提出的要求。在此基础上,从需求控制、效率提升这两个城市规划的核心着力点上剖析低碳发展与城市规划的融合,并对上海未来低碳化的城市规划提出了一些建议。     

城市能耗模拟方法的比较研究

在全球气候变暖的背景下,提高能源利用效率是绿色建筑和生态城市领域的重要研究内容之一。在建筑层面,能耗模拟分析技术已经相当成熟;在城市层面,进行能耗模拟的难度较大,由于单体建筑数量多、类型多、构造多样,城市设施复杂,必须研究新的方法技术计算城市能耗。本文针对目前国际上最新的城市能耗模拟方法,总结出城市能耗模拟的一般性流程,并基于该流程对城市能耗模型的模拟方法进行比较分析。城市能耗模拟方法的探索和研究能够为城市能源政策的制定、城市能源安全、城市节能提供强有力的技术支持。     

参数化生成与评价技术在面向太阳能的城市设计中的应用初探

面对以太阳能为代表的城市新能源供给系统正在从单向集中模式走向双向分散模式的历史性变革,城市规划与建筑设计领域也随之催生了一批关于新能源的研究。而其中工作尺度介于这两者之间的城市设计,因其操作对象的三维形态特征,能够有效地将城市规划中对土地太阳能潜力的预测,与建筑设计中对太阳能建筑一体化构件的设计贯穿起来。由此,文中展示了如何运用参数化的生成与评价技术,按照城市设计中的三维形态、日常设计中各种建筑类型的经验数值、太阳能采集单元的安装规范等限制条件,对城市设计方案进行自动地太阳能采集设备单元模拟安装,即生成了各种尺度、位置的太阳能采集单元基面,并自动地完成对于方案的太阳能采集能力的定量化评估,以此实现对城市设计方案间的比较,以及对后续建筑设计中造型取舍的引导。