Extreme actions and climate change: experience gained in South Africa and Germany

The results of a survey of climate change developments in South Africa and Germany from the perspective of its relevance to extreme actions on infrastructure are presented in this paper. It is concluded that the importance of climate change is broad and varied. However incorporation into practice is mostly nominal. Although general trends of climate change are confirmed, proper information on changes in extreme conditions is limited. Coastal engineering seems to be the field which is most active in providing for climate change. It is concluded that risk-based methodologies developed to treat the variability and uncertainties of extreme actions and consequences in present practice provide a sound basis for treating the effects of climate change in a rational and optimal manner. It is also clear that there is strong motivation for extensive research as the best action to be taken presently, anticipating appropriate adjustment of re-optimised design methodologies.     

Climate change and the relational city

While the goals of sustainability and resilience look to the health and function of the system, a new criterion, relationality, focuses relationship and the degree of connectedness, social and otherwise, among persons (and even nonhuman others). It is founded upon an ethic of care that posits that no one is left alone, and that society must place a primary focus on the most vulnerable. This is particularly relevant when considering how cities are beginning to deal with increasingly frequent and severe weather events due to climate change. The idea of relationality is contrasted with the social and political isolation that exacerbates the effects of extreme events on the most vulnerable. The article ends with a discussion around how we might envision and craft the relational city and how this ideal responds to the challenge of climate change and extreme weather.     

Modeling the impact of climate variability on diarrhea-associated diseases in Taiwan (1996-2007)

Diarrhea is an important public health problem in Taiwan. Climatic changes and an increase in extreme weather events (extreme heat, drought or rainfalls) have been strongly linked to the incidence of diarrhea-associated disease.This study investigated and quantified the relationship between climate variations and diarrhea-associated morbidity in subtropical Taiwan. Specifically, this study analyzed the local climatic variables and the number of diarrhea-associated infection cases from 1996 to 2007. This study applied a climate variation-guided Poisson regression model to predict the dynamics of diarrhea-associated morbidity. The proposed model allows for climate factors (relative humidity, maximum temperature and the numbers of extreme rainfall), autoregression, long-term trends and seasonality, and a lag-time effect. Results indicated that the maximum temperature and extreme rainfall days were strongly related to diarrhea-associated morbidity. The impact of maximum temperature on diarrhea-associated morbidity appeared primarily among children (0-14 years) and older adults (40-64 years), and had less of an effect on adults (15-39 years). Otherwise, relative humidity and extreme rainfall days significantly contributed to the diarrhea-associated morbidity in adult. This suggested that children and older adults were the most susceptible to diarrhea-associated morbidity caused by climatic variation. Because climatic variation contributed to diarrhea morbidity in Taiwan, it is necessary to develop an early warning system based on the climatic variation information for disease control management.     

Becoming places: urbanism/architecture/identity/power,by Kim Dovey,London, Routledge, 2009, 204 pp., £25.99, ISBN 978-0-415-41637-5 (paperback), £95.00, ISBN 978-0-415-41636-8 (hardback)

Urban planning can contribute to reducing vulnerability to the impacts of climate change (including the expected increased occurrence of extreme weather events) in metropolitan areas. However, lack of urban governance and planning focusing on the metropolitan area as a whole, and decisions that do not take into account sufficiently the occurrence of such events, can substantially increase the cost of recovery from weather-related disasters. This policy study connects climate change adaptation, urban planning and metropolitan governance issues in the Hungarian context, focusing on the June 2010 floods in the town of Fels?zsolca, in the Miskolc metropolitan area. A review of key literature is provided on the impacts of climate change in cities and on governing climate action in metropolitan areas. Events leading up to and following the June 2010 Fels?zsolca floods are analysed from the perspective of urban planning. Based on evaluation criteria including effectiveness, cost-effectiveness, institutional capacity, transparency, political feasibility and time, four policy options are identified for climate action-related governance and planning in metropolitan areas, in the Hungarian context. Based on the above criteria, formalized horizontal partnerships between local authorities within the metropolitan area are chosen as the most favourable and currently most feasible policy option in Hungary.     

A time-series analysis of mortality and air temperature in Greater Beirut

The literature on the association between health and weather in the temperate to semi-arid cities of the Eastern Mediterranean is scarce. The quantification of the relationship between temperature and daily mortality can be useful for developing policy interventions such as heat-warning systems. A time-series analysis of total daily mortality and weather data for the city of Beirut was carried out. The study covered the period between 1997 and 1999. Poisson auto-regressive models were constructed, with mean daily temperature and mean daily humidity as explanatory variables. Delayed effects, up to 2 weeks, were accounted for. The regression models were used next to assess the effect of an average increase in temperature on yearly mortality. The association between temperature and mortality was found to be significant. A relatively high minimum-mortality temperature (TMM) of 27.5 degrees C was calculated. A 1 degrees C rise in temperature yielded a 12.3% increase (95% confidence interval: 5.7-19.4%) and 2.9% decrease (95% confidence interval: 2-3.7%) in mortality, above and below TMM, respectively. Lag temperature variables were found to be significant below TMM but not above it. Where the temperature change was less than 0.5 degrees C, annual above-TMM losses were offset by below-TMM gains, within a 95% confidence interval. TMM for Beirut fell within the range usually associated with warm climates. However, the mild below-TMM and steep above-TMM slopes were more typical of cities with temperate to cold climates. Our findings suggest that heat-related mortality at moderately high temperatures can be a significant public health issue in countries with warm climates. Moreover, at the projected climate change over the next 50 years, heat-related losses are unlikely to be offset by cold-related gains.     

Assessing the spatio-temporal climate variability in semi-arid Karamoja sub-region in north-eastern Uganda

Semi-arid areas show climatic variability on a spatio-temporal scale. There are few studies on the long-term trends and intensity of this variability from East Africa. We used National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration re-analysis climate data (1979–2009) in this study. Rainfall exhibited a non-significant long-term trend. The climate of the area is variable (coefficient of variation-CV?>35.0%) with spatio-temporal oddities in rainfall and temperature. A rise in minimum (0.9?°C), maximum (1.6?°C) and mean (1.3?°C) temperature occurred between 1979 and 2009. There were more months with climate variability indices below the threshold (<1.0) from 1979 to 1994 than between 1995 and 2009, with wetness intensity increasingly common after 2000, leading to the observed reduction in the recurrence of multi-year drought events. More extreme wet events (rainfall variability index?>2.6) were experienced between 2004 and 2009 than between 1984 and 2003. We consider that the use of spatio-temporal climatic information for timely adjustment to extreme climate variability events is essential in semi-arid areas.     

Harmful algae and their potential impacts on desalination operations off southern California

Seawater desalination by reverse osmosis (RO) is a reliable method for augmenting drinking water supplies. In recent years, the number and size of these water projects have increased dramatically. As freshwater resources become limited due to global climate change, rising demand, and exhausted local water supplies, seawater desalination will play an important role in the world's future water supply, reaching far beyond its deep roots in the Middle East. Emerging contaminants have been widely discussed with respect to wastewater and freshwater sources, but also must be considered for seawater desalination facilities to ensure the long-term safety and suitability of this emerging water supply. Harmful algal blooms, frequently referred to as ‘red tides’ due to their vibrant colors, are a concern for desalination plants due to the high biomass of microalgae present in ocean waters during these events, and a variety of substances that some of these algae produce. These compounds range from noxious substances to powerful neurotoxins that constitute significant public health risks if they are not effectively and completely removed by the RO membranes. Algal blooms can cause significant operational issues that result in increased chemical consumption, increased membrane fouling rates, and in extreme cases, a plant to be taken off-line. Early algal bloom detection by desalination facilities is essential so that operational adjustments can be made to ensure that production capacity remains unaffected. This review identifies the toxic substances, their known producers, and our present state of knowledge regarding the causes of toxic episodes, with a special focus on the Southern California Bight.     

气候变化对城市植被的影响研究综述

城市植被的生长发育受到气候变化的显著影响，从而限制了其生态系统服务的稳定供给。深入了解气候变化对城市植被的影响对于提高城市植被应对气候变化的生态适应性、维持生态系统稳定性及保障景观可持续性十分重要。对国内外学术论文进行全面梳理和系统归纳后，对气候变化影响城市植被的相关研究进展进行了综合阐述，旨在增进风景园林及相关行业人士对此方向的了解与关注。当前研究表明：全球气候变化对城市植被的生长状况、树种构成、物候特征、植物景观及生态功能等多方面产生了显著的直接或间接影响。既包括延长植物生长期等积极影响，也包括以下负面影响：气候变暖加速植物衰老；极端气候现象对植物生长构成胁迫；城市气候适宜生境（climatically-suitable habitats）减少导致树种多样性下降和生物入侵风险增大；气候变化带来的物候变化导致群落种间关系及植物季相景观改变；物候期的年际波动增加了游赏活动时间安排及物候相关疾病发生期预测的不确定性等。整体上负面影响更为突出，表明气候变化为城市植被带来的挑战远大于机遇。而目前，此领域在中国开展的研究尚显不足，未来值得更多关注。     

Adaptation to Climate Change

Problem: Even if significant reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions are achieved, some amount of climate change appears to be inevitable. Local, regional, state, and federal planning and regulation should begin to address how to adapt to these changes.

Purpose: This article presents a policy synthesis of adaptation planning issues, using California as a case study. We examine the institutional and regulatory challenges and tradeoffs that climate change poses in six particularly vulnerable areas: water resources, electricity, coastal resources, air quality, public health, and ecosystem resources. We discuss obstacles to adaptation planning and successes overcoming these barriers, and suggest how planning can incorporate adaptation.

Methods: This article presents a policy synthesis of adaptation planning issues, drawing on our recent research on California's experience and related literature. We summarize the results of six studies that draw on quantitative and qualitative information gathered through surveys, interviews, and literature review.

Results and conclusions: Planners should use forward-looking climate data that include higher water and air temperatures, sea-level rise, and increased numbers of extreme events like heat waves, floods, and wildfires when making decisions about future development, infrastructure investments, open-space protection, and disaster preparedness. Climate change will exacerbate conflicts between goals for economic development, habitat protection, and public safety, requiring stronger interagency coordination and new laws and regulations.

Takeaway for practice: Local and regional planners can help society adapt to a changing climate by using the best available science, deciding on goals and early actions, locating relevant partners, identifying and eliminating regulatory barriers, and encouraging the introduction of new state mandates and guidelines.

Research support: Partial support for this research was provided by Pacific Gas and Electric, The Nature Conservancy, and Next 10.     

URBAS: forecasting and management of flash floods in urban areas

Recent studies on climate change indicate a growing frequency and intensity of flash flood events in western Europe. Flash floods are caused by extreme local precipitation. The URBAS project is concentrating on the urban occurrence of flash floods in Germany. URBAS has as a main objective to increase the preparedness and the range of possible actions of urban actors (e.g. communities, public enterprises) before and during rare small-scale flood events. Within URBAS the meteorological parameters, runoff and damage of flash floods are investigated. Innovative and feasible actions and precautionary measures at a reasonable cost-value-ratio are to be developed.     

The impact of climate change on the distribution of rural income in Ethiopia

Recent evidence suggests that global climate change is likely to increase the incidence of environmental disasters, as well as the frequency of extreme weather events. As a result, it is generally recognized that climate and weather variability has negative impacts on households’ welfare relying mainly on agriculture. In Ethiopia, 95% of the population depends on rain-fed agriculture and consequently the economic impact of climate change is crucial for small-scale farmers’ food security and welfare. The objective of this study is to provide a comprehensive analysis of the impact of climate change on rural households’ welfare in Ethiopia by using a Quantile Regression (QR) analysis. The main econometric results show that the elasticity of crop income with respect to rainfall varies across quantiles. It is confirmed that there is a non-linear relationship between climatic variables and income.     

Intra-event variability of Escherichia coli and total suspended solids in urban stormwater runoff

Sediment levels are important for environmental health risk assessments of surface water bodies, while faecal pollution can introduce significant public health risks for users of these systems. Urban stormwater is one of the largest sources of contaminants to surface waters, yet the fate and transport of these contaminants (especially those microbiological) have received little attention in the literature. Stormwater runoff from five urbanized catchments were monitored for pathogen indicator bacteria and total suspended solids in two developed countries. Multiple discrete samples were collected during each storm event, allowing an analysis of intra-event characteristics such as initial concentration, peak concentration, maximum rate of change, and relative confidence interval. The data suggest that a catchment’s area influences pollutant characteristics, as larger catchments have more complex stormwater infrastructure and more variable pollutant sources. The variability of total suspended solids for many characteristics was similar to Escherichia coli, indicating that the variability of E. coli may not be substantially higher than that of other pollutants as initially speculated. Further, variations in E. coli appeared to be more commonly correlated to antecedent climate, while total suspended solids were more highly correlated to rainfall/runoff characteristics. This emphasizes the importance of climate on microbial persistence and die off in urban systems. Discrete intra-event concentrations of total suspended solids and, to a lesser extent E. coli, were correlated to flow, velocity, and rainfall intensity (adjusted by time of concentrations). Concentration changes were found to be best described by adjusted rainfall intensity, as shown by other researchers. This study has resulted in an increased understanding of the magnitude of intra-event variations of total suspended solids and E. coli and what physical and climatic parameters influence these variations.     

瘟疫、城市公共卫生与风景园林——论英国历史上两次重大公共卫生事件对城市公共卫生和风景园林的影响

历史上,瘟疫让人类付出了惨痛代价。但是疫情过后,人们不断反思、改进,加强各个领域的建设,也给城市、公共卫生、园林等领域的发展带来了一定的机遇。在应对城市重大公共卫生事件的过程中,英国同许多国家一样遭遇了毁灭性打击,同时又具有特殊性,产生了许多影响世界城市和风景园林历史发展进程的特殊因素。选取英国历史上黑死病和霍乱两次重大公共卫生事件,采用历史文献分析方法,从瘟疫产生的背景、危害和瘟疫后城市公共卫生、风景园林发展两个方面展开探讨,重点关注瘟疫如何促进城市重建与发展,引发公共卫生领域的改革以及产生对风景园林的影响。认为瘟疫是一把自然生态的双刃剑,反推了城市公共卫生的建设,促进了环境和公共空间的立法。应对瘟疫从某个侧面推动了景观公正性的发展,让人们重新审视了人与自然的关系。以期为城市应对重大公共卫生事件提供经验和参考。     

Effects of rainfall patterns on toxic cyanobacterial blooms in a changing climate: between simplistic scenarios and complex dynamics

Toxic cyanobacterial blooms represent a serious hazard to environmental and human health, and the management and restoration of affected waterbodies can be challenging. While cyanobacterial blooms are already a frequent occurrence, in the future their incidence and severity are predicted to increase due to climate change. Climate change is predicted to lead to increased temperature and changes in rainfall patterns, which will both have a significant impact on inland water resources. While many studies indicate that a higher temperature will favour cyanobacterial bloom occurrences, the impact of changed rainfall patterns is widely under-researched and therefore less understood.This review synthesizes the predicted changes in rainfall patterns and their potential impact on inland waterbodies, and identifies mechanisms that influence the occurrence and severity of toxic cyanobacterial blooms.It is predicted that there will be a higher frequency and intensity of rainfall events with longer drought periods in between. Such changes in the rainfall patterns will lead to favourable conditions for cyanobacterial growth due to a greater nutrient input into waterbodies during heavy rainfall events, combined with potentially longer periods of high evaporation and stratification. These conditions are likely to lead to an acceleration of the eutrophication process and prolonged warm periods without mixing of the water column. However, the frequent occurrence of heavy rain events can also lead to a temporary disruption of cyanobacterial blooms due to flushing and de-stratification, and large storm events have been shown to have a long-term negative effect on cyanobacterial blooms. In contrast, a higher number of small rainfall events or wet days can lead to proliferation of cyanobacteria, as they can rapidly use nutrients that are added during rainfall events, especially if stratification remains unchanged.With rainfall patterns changing, cyanobacterial toxin concentration in waterbodies is expected to increase. Firstly, this is due to accelerated eutrophication which supports higher cyanobacterial biomass. Secondly, predicted changes in rainfall patterns produce more favourable growth conditions for cyanobacteria, which is likely to increase the toxin production rate. However, the toxin concentration in inland waterbodies will also depend on the effect of rainfall events on cyanobacterial strain succession, a process that is still little understood. Low light conditions after heavy rainfall events might favour non-toxic strains, whilst inorganic nutrient input might promote the dominance of toxic strains in blooms. This review emphasizes that the impact of changes in rainfall patterns is very complex and will strongly depend on the site-specific dynamics, cyanobacterial species composition and cyanobacterial strain succession. More effort is needed to understand the relationship between rainfall patterns and cyanobacterial bloom dynamics, and in particular toxin production, to be able to assess and mediate the significant threat cyanobacterial blooms pose to our water resources.     

应对气候变化的城市规划与设计——前沿及对中国的启示

随着全球变暖和极端气候事件频繁发生,全球气候变化及其不利影响日益成为人类共同关心的问题。文章首先介绍了国外已有的相关研究,并以国外前沿研究为启示,分析了中国气候变化现状、影响及应对措施,认为中国面临的气候形势极为严峻,从而提出了减缓和适应气候变化的城市空间、规模、交通规划理念,又对各类灾害多发区制定了相应的设计法则,并提出了"气候·多规融合"的想法。     

Hydrology and the natural heritage of the Scottish mountains

The physical natures of the Scottish mountains and their geographical position have created a montane environment, which can be considered as unique in European terms. The mountains of Scotland have been subjected to major environmental changes throughout the past centuries including climate change, deforestation, hydropower developments and more recently the expansion of plantation forestry. Mountain ecosystems have the ability to withstand large climatic variations and extreme events but it is suggested that they may not withstand some of the climatic barriers, which have recently been crossed. The greatest recent land use change in Scotland's mountains has been the expansion of plantation forests. The effects on headwater catchment hydrology are mainly in the reduction in runoff. It is suggested that plantation forestry has a more significant impact on the natural heritage through other influences such as water chemistry and river sediments. Future management of the Scottish mountains needs to consider the great natural heritage value in addition to other interests such as water resources, hydropower generation, commercial forestry and tourism.     

新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情防控期间放疗科的应对策略与思考

新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情属于突发公共卫生事件,严重威胁人类健康,肿瘤患者是新型冠状病毒感染的高危人群。放疗作为肿瘤治疗的重要手段之一,在疫情期间成为重要的替代或延缓手术的治疗手段。北京协和医院放疗科在疫情防控期间通过制定严密而科学的防控管理体系,保证了放疗工作的顺利开展。本文对防控管理相关策略进行总结与思考,为突发公共卫生事件期间开展放疗工作提供经验参考。     

Addressing climate change in comfort standards

According to the Buildings Energy Data Book published by the U.S. Department of Energy, in 2006 the building sector consumed 38.9% of the total primary energy used in the United States. Of this energy, 34.8% is used by buildings for space heating, ventilation, and air conditioning. This energy often involves the combustion of fossil fuels, contributing to carbon dioxide emissions and climate change. Even if greenhouse gas concentrations are stabilized in the atmosphere, extreme climate events and sea level rise will continue for several centuries due to inertia of the atmosphere. Therefore, adaptation will be a necessary compliment to carbon dioxide mitigation efforts. This paper argues that both mitigation of greenhouse gases and adaptation to climate change should be added to our building codes and standards. Since space heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning utilize a large amount of energy in buildings, we should begin by redefining our thermal comfort standards and add strategies that mitigate carbon dioxide emissions and adapt to predicted climate variability.     

Advancements in water and ecological risk assessment in the Yellow River Delta,North China: Implications for legal frameworks in environmental protection and public health

The Yellow River Delta (YRD) is an important agricultural and industrial region in China, yet its water resources have been increasingly affected by shortages and pollution due to human activities and the impact of climate change. This has resulted in severe damage to the water ecosystem in the YRD, thereby necessitating the adoption of effective legal measures to safeguard these resources. This paper provides a comprehensive review of recent research findings on water resources and water ecology in the YRD. Specifically, it summarizes the changes and characteristics of the geographical distribution, quantity and quality of water resources in the region and analyzes the effects of climate change, economic development and population growth on water resources. In light of the vulnerability and risks to the water resources and ecosystems in this area, this paper evaluates the impact of human activities on regional water security and proposes strategies for the sustainable utilization of water resources and the protection of public health. The insights and measures presented in this paper provide valuable guidance and references for water resource management and environmental protection in the YRD.