智能化生产环境中基于本体的危机管理

智能化生产环境让生产的效率和质量都得到了显著提高。然而,智能化生产化境中复杂的组成结构和交互行为也放大了系统中危机事件的危害程度,进行有效的危机管理具有很强的必要性。由于智能化生产环境中的危机管理是一项知识密集型的任务,文中通过构建危机管理本体来对智能化生产环境中的危机进行管理。首先确定了危机管理的四个阶段,然后根据各个阶段中需要的环境知识对危机管理本体进行层次划分,并确定各本体类,接着对各本体类的属性进行了详细描述,构建出了整体的危机管理本体,最后基于本体并结合案例描述了对应的SWRL推理规则。     

论软件项目风险管理

风险管理一直是软件项目管理中的重点和难点问题。对风险的定性/定量分析、制定风险应对策略、风险跟踪与监控进行了深入的研究,对项目管理过程中的风险问题做了全面的阐述。     

Film and television industry cloud exhibition design based on 3D imaging and virtual reality

The three-dimensional virtual scene can provide users with a visual three-dimensional virtual environment, with various multimedia channels such as sound, video, force feedback equipment, etc., to bring users a completely immersive interactive experience. This paper introduces 3D imaging and virtual reality technology in the film and television industry cloud exhibition, and develops a virtual display platform. First of all, this paper divides the registration into two processes: camera calibration and joint calibration of the camera and laser scanner based on the calibration results. Camera calibration can determine the plane model of the calibration board in the camera coordinate system, and the joint calibration uses the RANSAC algorithm to extract the point cloud of the plane model of the calibration board, and then optimizes the distance between the points in the plane model point cloud and the corresponding plane in the camera coordinate system Find the optimal transformation between the two sets of data, and then calculate the registration relationship between the point cloud and the image. Secondly, this article conducts a demand analysis of the film and television industry cloud exhibition platform based on virtual reality technology, including the business goals set by the platform, platform system analysis, overall design, and system operating environment and configuration requirements. This model provides a feasible solution for the visual interaction of the cloud exhibition design of the film and television industry.     

Occupational musculoskeletal and mental health: Significance of rationalization and opportunities to create sustainable production systems – A systematic review

This literature review aims to identify occupational musculoskeletal and mental health effects of production system rationalization as well as organizational-level measures that may improve health outcome (“modifiers” in this review). A short review of the effect of ergonomic interventions is included as background and rationalization is discussed as a theoretical concept. Indicator variables for occupational musculoskeletal and mental health and related risk factors are presented. Variables with a generalized format were allowed in the literature searches (e.g., job satisfaction and absenteeism were accepted as risk factor and health indicator, respectively), suitable for the research fields of work sociology, organization science, human resource management (HRM) and economics research.One hundred and sixty-two studies of rationalization effects on health and risk factors and 72 organization-level modifier results were accepted into the final database. Entries were sorted by rationalization strategy and work life sector, and trends in outcome (positive, mixed, no effect, or negative effect on health and risk factors) were determined.Rationalizations have a dominant negative effect on health and risk factors (57% negative, 19% positive); the most negative effects were found for downsizing and restructuring rationalizations in general (71 studies negative, 13 positive) and for the health care sector in particular (36 studies negative, 2 positive). The rationalization strategy High Performance Work System (HPWS) was associated with the highest fraction positive outcome studies (6 of 10 studies). Other rationalization strategies (lean practices, parallel vs. serial production and mechanization level) reported intermediate results, in part dependent on work life sector, but also on the year when studies were carried out. Worker participation, resonant management style, information, support, group autonomy and procedural justice were modifiers with favourable influence on outcome.It is concluded that production system rationalization represents a pervasive work life intervention without a primary occupational health focus. It has considerable and mostly negative influence on worker health, but this can be reduced by attention to modifiers. The results create a basis for new priorities in ergonomic intervention research.     

高职专业课教学中融入“课程思政”理念的实践研究——以《影视后期编辑》为例

为实现职业教育“立德树人”的本质要求,高职院校必须加强思想政治教育工作,而全面有效落实课程思政,则是实现全程育人、全方位育人的重要举措。本文以《影视后期编辑》课程为例,挖掘课程思政的内涵与教学模式,分析实践过程中存在的问题,探究高职专业课程与思想政治教育有机结合的途径。     

校园网络系统风险管理及对策研究

本文主要从风险的定义、风险管理的一般原则和方法谈起,提出了校园计算机网络系统实行风险管理的必要性和过程,对加强网络系统的安全性提出了建设性意见.     

Value-at-Risk for country risk ratings

The country risk literature argues that country risk ratings have a direct impact on the cost of borrowings as they reflect the probability of debt default by a country. An improvement in country risk ratings, or country creditworthiness, will lower a country's cost of borrowing and debt servicing obligations, and vice versa. In this context, it is useful to analyse country risk ratings data, much like financial data, in terms of the time series patterns, as such an analysis would provide policy makers and the industry stakeholders with a more accurate method of forecasting future changes in the risks and returns of country risk ratings. This paper considered an extension of the Value-at-Risk (VaR) framework where both the upper and lower thresholds are considered. The purpose of the paper was to forecast the conditional variance and Country Risk Bounds (CRBs) for the rate of change of risk ratings for 10 countries. The conditional variance of composite risk returns for the 10 countries were forecasted using the Single Index (SI) and Portfolio Methods (PM) of McAleer and da Veiga [10] and [11]. The results suggested that the country risk ratings of Switzerland, Japan and Australia are much mode likely to remain close to current levels than the country risk ratings of Argentina, Brazil and Mexico. This type of analysis would be useful to lenders/investors evaluating the attractiveness of lending/investing in alternative countries.     

Comparisons of variables between fatal and nonfatal accidents in manufacturing industry

This study concerns with the comparisons of variables between fatal and nonfatal accidents in Korean manufacturing industries. The national industrial accident statistics for the years 1991–1994 were extracted from the annual publications of Ministry of Labor. These data were used to compare the distributions of fatal and nonfatal injuries in terms of company size, injured person's age, work experience, accident time, activity at time of accident, accident type, injury type, injured body part, and accident agency. Results show that the distributions of the fatal injuries are statistically different from those of the nonfatal injuries: (1) nonfatal injuries occur more frequently in the younger workers, while deaths occur more frequently in the older workers; (2) the proportion of death occurring in night shift is greater than that of nonfatal injuries; (3) `caught in and between objects' is the most common type of accident, but the second common type of accident is `awkward or sudden movement' in the nonfatal injuries, instead of `falls from a height' in deaths; and (4) `fracture' is the leading caused injury and death, but the second leading type of injury is `contusion or bruise' in the nonfatal injuries and `cerebral concussion' in deaths.

Relevance to industry

Strategies for accident prevention should be in reasonable agreement with significant variables of occupational accidents. These results can be used to develop more effective accidental occupational death and injury prevention programs for manufacturing industry.     

Exploring the relationship between software project duration and risk exposure: A cluster analysis

Software projects often fail. Thus it is important to find ways to ensure a successful outcome. One significant area is a better understanding of the relationship between the software project duration and risk exposure, as this helps project managers with pertinent information to be effective in managing risky projects. We addressed this need by adopting a cluster analysis technique to provide managers with insight into effective planning and control of their projects. The results not only revealed that risk exposures associated with user, requirement, planning & control and team risk dimensions were affected by project duration, but also showed how to manage software risks effectively through observing trends in the risk components. Based on our findings, project managers can adopt appropriate attitudes, skills, and practices to deal with risky areas more effectively rather than just identifying those software risks with which project managers should be concerned.     

广电办公网络维护外包管理研究

网络维护外包是广电节约成本、应对社会和内部压力、获得竞争力的重要举措,现已逐渐演变为广电办公主流的网络维护方式。可是,如何在保证较好的日常网络维护外包质量的基础上,获取适当的利益,是广电需要深入挖掘的问题。     

Understanding workplace violence: The value of a systems perspective

Workplace violence is a leading form of occupational injury and fatality, but has received little attention from the ergonomics research community. The paper reports findings from the 2012 New Zealand Workplace Violence Survey, and examines the workplace violence experience of 86 New Zealand organisations and the perceptions of occupational health and safety professionals from a systems perspective. Over 50% of respondents reported violence cases in their organisation, with perpetrators evenly split between co-workers and external sources such as patients. Highest reported levels of violence were observed for agriculture, forestry and construction sectors. Highest risk factor ratings were reported for interpersonal and organisational factors, notably interpersonal communication, time pressure and workloads, with lowest ratings for environmental factors. A range of violence prevention measures were reported, although most organisations relied on single control measures, suggesting unmanaged violence risks were common among the sample.     

Assessment of the risk of occupational accidents using a “fuzzy” approach

This paper presents an assessment method of the risks of occupational accidents based on fuzzy logic. The purpose of this work was to create a methodological instrument that can semiquantitatively assess the risk of occupational accidents for different industrial and site activities and to identify the most efficient intervention measures that can be taken to reduce risks. This approach, which is new in the assessment of the risk of occupational accidents, allows qualitative, imprecise and in some cases contradictory data to be elaborated, as the data that describe an occupational accident usually are. The set-up analysis model therefore allows (1) an assessment to be made of the level of risk of a work phase and/or a work sector, (2) a verification and quantification to be made of the reduction of the risk after having adopted preventive and/or protective measures and (3) a priority of interventions to be established on the basis of the assessed risk levels. It can be seen how the method, here applied to a company producing industrial vehicle tyres, can be considered applicable for any type of company, with the only prerequisite of having a record of sufficient and homogeneous number of accidents so as to be able to correctly instruct the software and tune the reference parameters.     

An evaluation of the occupational accidents among logging workers within the boundaries of Trabzon Forestry Directorate,Turkey

The aim of this study was to determine the frequency of occupational accidents among logging workers and the risk factors involved. Data for 378 out of 2994 members of 24 cooperatives engaged in logging in the study area were gathered using face-to-face questionnaires and anthropometric data via the free measurement method. The annual logging accident frequency rate was 30.4%, and the annual incidence of occupational accidents was 2052.9. The accident risk among workers using hookaroons was 2.14 times greater than the risk among those not using them. Five to six rest breaks a day increased the accident frequency rate by 0.37 times. The foot width, which was one of the variables among the measured anthropometric data, was observed to increase the accident risk 0.68 times. The likelihood of an employee suffering from an accident during the working year correlated with the handling of chainsaws, the use of hookaroons, smoking, the number of breaks taken while working, experience, shoulder and knee height, leg and arm length and hand and foot width.     

Risk perception of construction equipment operators on construction sites of Turkey

Turkey has been an attractive country for construction industry in the last decade. Many large-scale construction projects, which have been realized by both international and local construction firms, helped the economy and provided employment opportunities for many. At the same time, many construction workers have been losing their lives on construction sites, which involve the usage of heavy equipment on a daily basis.Past research studies suggest that employee participation and their perception of safety risks could be valuable for determining and eliminating hazards on construction site. Therefore, this study aimed to determine and evaluate the risk perception of construction equipment operators in Turkey. The study is mainly based on a questionnaire survey performed in 51 construction projects that involved 198 heavy equipment operators. A statistical analysis was first performed on the results of the survey to observe the frequency distribution of parameters, such as safety and health training, using flagger, experience, type of equipment, working conditions and other project related data. Then, statistical methods such as, t-test, ANOVA analysis, Kruskall–Wallis one way analysis of variance, and Mann–Whitney U test were performed to seek statistically meaningful differences in risk perception of operator groups with different attributes.Results revealed the importance of safety and health training as well as working with an assistant, such as a flagger. It was observed that operators who took safety and health training and operators who worked with flaggers perceived risk differently than others. It was also found that the project type influences the risk perception of equipment operators due to diversity of construction equipment activities performed, as well as number of incidents occurred in those projects.Relevance to industryThe authors expect this research to lead to discussion and further research on risk assessment for construction industry. The risk assessment findings of this study, in particular, could help the safety professionals detect possible unforeseen risks and design safety and health plans for construction sites that require usage of heavy equipment on a daily basis. Heavy equipment manufacturers could also devise a similar research that involves operators’ risk perception to design more ergonomic and safe equipment.     

基于历史模拟法的风险价值算法在GPU上的实现和优化

风险价值(Value at Risk,VaR)是风险管理的基本工具,可对现有头寸的下行风险提供量化衡量方法。基于历史模拟法的VaR(Historical VaR)是最流行的计算方法之一,被广泛应用于世界各大金融机构。对金融产品进行实时或准实时的VaR计算,对于及时规避金融风险具有重要意义。由于金融产品日益复杂,产品数量持续增长,现有CPU计算平台上的计算能力已经难以满足VaR的性能需求。为解决这一问题, 在GPU上使用CUDA 对Historical VaR的计算代码进行了实现和优化。通过改进排序算法、基于Multi-stream 隐藏通讯时间、解耦数据依赖并实现细粒度并行等优化方法,CUDA版本的VaR计算性能比优化后的CPU单核性能提升了42.6倍,为快速计算超大数量债券的VaR提供了有效的解决方案。以上优化方法也可以为金融领域内其他算法的GPU化提供思路。     

The impact of the dependence structure in risk management: a focus on credit-risk

The aim of the paper is to discuss the important role of the dependence structure in risk management. Therefore, we focus on credit-risk and propose an innovative model to value the credit risk of a portfolio. This new approach (HYC for short) is based on a hierarchical hybrid copula and involves a clusterization of the portfolio in several risk's classes. The HYC model is classified as hybrid because the computation of the loss cdf depends on the class's cardinality: for large groups one is justified to apply a limiting approach, while for small ones one applies a procedure preserving the granularity of the group itself. In order to appreciate the impact of the dependence structure in credit-risk evaluation, a VaR analysis based on the HYC loss function is here compared to the CreditMetrics approach in an in-sample exercise and to the empirical VaR in an out-of sample exercise aimed to test the forecasting effectiveness of the model. This comparison allows us to appreciate over/under-valuation of the capital detained from the financial institution. Moreover, the impact of an enlargement of the dependence structure is discussed with respect to the systemic/contagious effects in the context of a portfolio optimisation with constraint on a sub-portfolio's risk.     

An application of capital allocation principles to operational risk and the cost of fraud

The costs of operational risk refer to the capital needed to cover the losses generated by a firm’s ordinary activities. In this paper several capital allocation principles are examined to demonstrate how such principles can be used to distribute aggregated capital across the various constituents that generate operational risk. Proportional allocation, for example, allows a cost per unit to be calculated. An application to fraud risk in the banking sector is presented and correlation scenarios between business lines are compared.