Crash costs in the United States by crash geometry

MAIN OBJECTIVES: This study was conducted to estimate the costs per crash for three police-coded crash severity groupings within 16 selected crash geometry types and within two speed limit categories (or=50 mph). METHODS: We merged previously developed costs per victim by abbreviated injury scale (AIS) score into U.S. crash data files that scored injuries in both the AIS and police-coded severity scales to estimate injury costs, then aggregated the estimates into costs per crash by maximum injury severity. RESULTS: The most costly crashes were non-intersection fatal/disabling injury crashes on a road with a speed limit of 50 miles per hour or higher where multiple vehicles crashed head-on or a single vehicle struck a human (over 1.69 US dollars and 1.16 million US dollars per crash, respectively). The annual cost of police-reported run-off-road collisions, which include both rollovers and object impacts, represented 34% of total costs. CONCLUSIONS: This paper provides cost estimates useful for evaluating roadway countermeasures and for designing vehicles to minimize crash harm. It gives unit costs of crashes by type in the coding system used by the police. The costs are in an appropriate form for economic analysis of countermeasures addressing locally defined problems identified by analyzing police crash reports.     

Trends in older driver crash involvement rates and survivability in the United States: An update

Objective

Previous research has shown that fatal crash involvement rates per licensed driver aged 70 and older declined significantly more per year in the United States than rates for middle-aged drivers aged 35–54 during 1997–2008, and per vehicle mile traveled from 1995–1996 to 2001–2002. Analyses of police-reported crash data during 1997–2005 indicated that the greater declines for older drivers were due to decreases in crash involvement and in the risk of dying in the crashes that occurred. The current study examined if trends in crash rates, crash involvements, and survivability persisted into more recent years.

Methods

Trends for drivers 70 and older were compared with trends for drivers aged 35–54 for U.S. national fatal passenger vehicle crash involvements per 100,000 licensed drivers during 1997–2012 and for U.S. national fatal passenger vehicle crash involvements per vehicle miles traveled in 1995–1996, 2001–2002, and 2008. Using police-reported crash data during 1997–2008 from 20 U.S. states, trends in involvement rates in non-fatal crashes of various severities per 100,000 licensed drivers and changes in the odds of death and the odds of death or serious injury in a crash were compared between older and middle-aged drivers.

Results

During 2007–2012, declines in national fatal crash involvement rates per licensed driver were similar for drivers 70 and older and middle-aged drivers (18 percent each). However, when considering the entire study period, fatal crash involvement rates continued to reflect a substantially larger decline for drivers 70 and older than for middle-aged drivers (42 vs. 30 percent per licensed driver during 1997–2012, 39 vs. 26 percent per vehicle mile traveled from 1995–2006 to 2008). When analyses of police-reported crash data were extended through 2008, non-fatal injury crash involvement rates per licensed driver declined more for older than for middle-aged drivers (39 vs. 30 percent), and unlike in prior research, average annual declines were significantly larger for drivers 80 and older. Property damage-only crash involvement rates similarly declined significantly more for older than for middle-aged drivers (15 vs. 3 percent). Drivers 70 and older in 1997 were 3.5 times more likely than middle-aged drivers to die in a crash, and this ratio declined to 3.2 by 2008.

Conclusions

Although declines in fatal crash involvement rates in recent years have not differed between older and middle-aged drivers, this did not undo earlier gains for older drivers. The recent slowing in the relative magnitude of the decline for older drivers may be related to the differential effect of the U.S. recession on fatal crash involvements of drivers in these age groups. The decreased likelihood of being involved in a crash of any severity and increased survivability when a crash occurred held when examining data through 2008, and for drivers 80 and older, significant declines in crash involvement relative to middle-aged drivers extended to non-fatal injury crashes.     

Overall injury risk to different drivers: combining exposure,frequency, and severity models

Traffic crash risk assessments should incorporate appropriate exposure data. However, existing US nationwide crash data sets, the NASS General Estimates System (GES) and the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS), do not contain information on driver or vehicle exposure. In order to obtain appropriate exposure data, this work estimates vehicle miles driven (VMD) by different drivers using the Nationwide Personal Transportation Survey (NPTS). These results are combined with annual crash rates and injury severity information from the GES for a comprehensive assessment of overall risk to different drivers across vehicle classes.Data are distinguished by driver age, gender, vehicle type, crash type (rollover versus non-rollover), and injury severity. After correcting for drivers' crash exposure, results indicate that young drivers are far more crash prone than other drivers (per VMD) and that drivers of sports utility vehicles (SUVs) and pickups (PUs) are more likely to be involved in rollover crashes than those driving passenger cars. Although, the results suggest that drivers of SUVs are generally much less crash prone than drivers of passenger cars, the rollover propensity of SUVs and the severity of that crash type offset many of the incident benefits for SUV drivers.     

脉冲波和阶跃波输入的产品破损边界

以产品包装破损极限理论为基础,以有限上升阶跃波为例,对阶跃波和脉冲波作用下的产品破损边界曲线进行了求解,并对其进行了系统的分析和比较.     

Random parameter models of interstate crash frequencies by severity,number of vehicles involved,collision and location type

A nine-year (1999–2007) continuous panel of crash histories on interstates in Washington State, USA, was used to estimate random parameter negative binomial (RPNB) models for various aggregations of crashes.     

The fatality and injury risk of light truck impacts with pedestrians in the United States

In the United States, passenger vehicles are shifting from a fleet populated primarily by cars to a fleet dominated by light trucks and vans (LTVs). Because light trucks are heavier, stiffer, and geometrically more blunt than passenger cars, they pose a dramatically different type of threat to pedestrians. This paper investigates the effect of striking vehicle type on pedestrian fatalities and injuries. The analysis incorporates three major sources of data, the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS), the General Estimates System (GES), and the Pedestrian Crash Data Study (PCDS). The paper presents and compares pedestrian impact risk factors for sport utility vehicles, pickup trucks, vans, and cars as developed from analyses of US accident statistics. Pedestrians are found to have a two to three times greater likelihood of dying when struck by an LTV than when struck by a car. Examination of pedestrian injury distributions reveals that, given an impact speed, the probability of serious head and thoracic injury is substantially greater when the striking vehicle is an LTV rather than a car.     

Comparison of moped,scooter and motorcycle crash risk and crash severity

The increased popularity of mopeds and motor scooters in Australia and elsewhere in the last decade has contributed substantially to the greater use of powered two-wheelers (PTWs) as a whole. As the exposure of mopeds and scooters has increased, so too has the number of reported crashes involving those PTW types, but there is currently little research comparing the safety of mopeds and, particularly, larger scooters with motorcycles. This study compared the crash risk and crash severity of motorcycles, mopeds and larger scooters in Queensland, Australia. Comprehensive data cleansing was undertaken to separate motorcycles, mopeds and larger scooters in police-reported crash data covering the five years to 30 June 2008. The crash rates of motorcycles (including larger scooters) and mopeds in terms of registered vehicles were similar over this period, although the moped crash rate showed a stronger downward trend. However, the crash rates in terms of distance travelled were nearly four times higher for mopeds than for motorcycles (including larger scooters). More comprehensive distance travelled data is needed to confirm these findings. The overall severity of moped and scooter crashes was significantly lower than motorcycle crashes but an ordered probit regression model showed that crash severity outcomes related to differences in crash characteristics and circumstances, rather than differences between PTW types per se. Greater motorcycle crash severity was associated with higher (>80 km/h) speed zones, horizontal curves, weekend, single vehicle and nighttime crashes. Moped crashes were more severe at night and in speed zones of 90 km/h or more. Larger scooter crashes were more severe in 70 km/h zones (than 60 km/h zones) but not in higher speed zones, and less severe on weekends than on weekdays. The findings can be used to inform potential crash and injury countermeasures tailored to users of different PTW types.     

Commuting by bike in Belgium, the costs of minor accidents

Minor bicycle accidents are defined as “bicycle accidents not involving death or heavily injured persons, implying that possible hospital visits last less than 24 hours”. Statistics about these accidents and related injuries are very poor, because they are mostly not reported to police, hospitals or insurance companies. Yet, they form a major share of all bicycle accidents. Official registrations underestimate the number of minor accidents and do not provide cost data, nor the distance cycled. Therefore related policies are hampered by a lack of accurate data.This paper provides more insight into the importance of minor bicycle accidents and reports the frequency, risk and resulting costs of minor bicycle accidents. Direct costs, including the damage to bike and clothes as well as medical costs and indirect costs such as productivity loss and leisure time lost are calculated. We also estimate intangible costs of pain and psychological suffering and costs for other parties involved in the accident. Data were collected during the SHAPES project using several electronic surveys. The weekly prospective registration that lasted a year, covered 1187 persons that cycled 1,474,978 km. 219 minor bicycle accidents were reported. Resulting in a frequency of 148 minor bicycle accidents per million kilometres. We analyzed the economic costs related to 118 minor bicycle accidents in detail. The average total cost of these accidents is estimated at 841 euro (95% CI: 579–1205) per accident or 0.125 euro per kilometre cycled. Overall, productivity loss is the most important component accounting for 48% of the total cost. Intangible costs, which in past research were mostly neglected, are an important burden related to minor bicycle accidents (27% of the total cost). Even among minor accidents there are important differences in the total cost depending on the severity of the injury.     

Incidence, severity and correlates of bicycling injuries in a sample of cyclists in Queensland, Australia

Bicycle injuries, particularly those resulting from single bicycle crashes, are underreported in both police and hospital records. Data on cyclist characteristics and crash circumstances are also often lacking. As a result, the ability to develop comprehensive injury prevention policies is hampered. The aim of this study was to examine the incidence, severity, cyclist characteristics, and crash circumstances associated with cycling injuries in a sample of cyclists in Queensland, Australia. A cross-sectional study of Queensland cyclists was conducted in 2009. Respondents (n = 2056) completed an online survey about their cycling experiences, including cycling injuries. Logistic regression modelling was used to examine the associations between demographic and cycling behaviour variables with experiencing cycling injuries in the past year, and, separately, with serious cycling injuries requiring a trip to a hospital. Twenty-seven percent of respondents (n = 545) reported injuries, and 6% (n = 114) reported serious injuries. In multivariable modelling, reporting an injury was more likely for respondents who had cycled <5 years, compared to ≥10 years (p < 0.005); cycled for competition (p = 0.01); or experienced harassment from motor vehicle occupants (p < 0.001). There were no gender differences in injury incidence, and respondents who cycled for transport did not have an increased risk of injury. Reporting a serious injury was more likely for those whose injury involved other road users (p < 0.03). Along with environmental and behavioural approaches for reducing collisions and near-collisions with motor vehicles, interventions that improve the design and maintenance of cycling infrastructure, increase cyclists’ skills, and encourage safe cycling behaviours and bicycle maintenance will also be important for reducing the overall incidence of cycling injuries.     

How intoxicated are drivers in the United States? Estimating the extent, risks and costs per kilometer of driving by blood alcohol level.

This study develops and applies an algorithm with international applicability for estimating vehicle kilometers (kms) driven by blood alcohol level (BAL) from police crash report data. In the United States, an estimated one in 120 kms was driven with BAL > or = 0.10% in 1992-1993. The ratio increased to 1 in 7 kms driven on weekend evenings. The estimated cost per vehicle km driven with BAL > or = 0.08% was $3.40 compared to $0.07 per sober km. Males, those age 21-29 and those driving between 22:00 and 04:00 had the greatest percentage of driving with BAL > or = 0.08%. These estimates are computed, in part, from early 1960s data on crash odds by driver BAL and assume crash odds by BAL relative to sober do not vary with driver age and sex. Preliminary investigation indicates that the method provides reliable estimates of alcohol-positive kms from roadside surveys at night, but seems to over-estimate high-BAL kms. Direct field validation is highly desirable.     

Injury severity of pedestrians,bicyclists and motorcyclists resulting from crashes with reversing cars

ObjectivePedestrians, bicyclists and motorcyclists can suffer serious injury in road traffic crashes. To date, no studies examine the injury severity within this vulnerable cohort following collisions with reversing cars.Material and methodsOur institution prospectively maintains a database including medical and technical information regarding traffic accidents in our area, including urban and suburban regions. In a retrospective review of this database, the authors describe the injury severity of pedestrians, bicyclists and motorcyclists following traffic crashes involving reversing cars. Injury severity was described using the abbreviated injury scale (AIS) as well as the maximum abbreviated injury scale (MAIS).ResultsThis study included 234 crashes occurring between 1999 and 2012. The lower extremity was injured most often while also suffering more severe injuries with a median AIS of 1 compared to 0 in all other documented body regions. The upper extremity was injured second most often. AIS ranging from 4 to 6 were infrequent. AIS 3 however, was documented for the legs in 4.3% of patients. MAIS 0, 1, 2, 3, 5 and 9 were found in 1, 164, 46, 14, 1, and 8 patients in the study cohort, respectively. Pedestrians and motorcyclists were seriously injured in 9.1% and 9.6% of cases, respectively. In contrast, no bicyclists suffered serious injuries. As to the zone of impact, most collisions occurred at the rear center of the vehicle (35%) followed by rear left (26%), rear right (20%), side rear (11%), side center (4%) and side front (3%). 204 (87.2%) collisions occurred during the day, 19 (8.1%) at night and 11 (4.7%) at twilight. Speed was similar in crashes involving pedestrians, bicyclists and motorcyclists, being as high as 7.0 ± 3.6, 7.0 ± 4.0 and 7.9 ± 4.2 km/h respectively.ConclusionsThis is the first study that analyzes injury severity among these vulnerable road users following collisions with reversing vehicles. The majority of collisions occur at low impact speed during the day. Most injuries resulting from these collisions are not serious, however pedestrians are at greatest risk of severe injury to any body region. The lower extremities suffer the most serious and frequent injuries within this cohort.     

The effects of age,gender, and crash types on drivers’ injury-related health care costs

There are many studies that evaluate the effects of age, gender, and crash types on crash related injury severity. However, few studies investigate the effects of those crash factors on the crash related health care costs for drivers that are transported to hospital. The purpose of this study is to examine the relationships between drivers’ age, gender, and the crash types, as well as other crash characteristics (e.g., not wearing a seatbelt, weather condition, and fatigued driving), on the crash related health care costs. The South Carolina Crash Outcome Data Evaluation System (SC CODES) from 2005 to 2007 was used to construct six separate hierarchical linear regression models based on drivers’ age and gender. The results suggest that older drivers have higher health care costs than younger drivers and male drivers tend to have higher health care costs than female drivers in the same age group. Overall, single vehicle crashes had the highest health care costs for all drivers. For males older than 64-years old sideswipe crashes are as costly as single vehicle crashes. In general, not wearing a seatbelt, airbag deployment, and speeding were found to be associated with higher health care costs. Distraction-related crashes are more likely to be associated with lower health care costs in most cases. Furthermore this study highlights the value of considering drivers in subgroups, as some factors have different effects on health care costs in different driver groups. Developing an understanding of longer term outcomes of crashes and their characteristics can lead to improvements in vehicle technology, educational materials, and interventions to reduce crash-related health care costs.     

A multi-stage facility location problem with staircase costs and splitting of commodities: model,heuristic approach and application

In this paper a multi-stage facility location problem with staircase costs and splitting of commodities is introduced and formulated as a mixed integer program. The problem is motivated by an application in the context of a reverse supply chain for end-of-life vehicles. We propose a two-phase heuristic solution approach: The greedy construction heuristic utilizes the solution obtained by the LP-relaxation of the problem. In the improvement heuristic we combine ADD, DROP and SWAP neighborhoods with a diversification strategy to a Variable Neighborhood Descent (VND) and to a Variable Neighborhood Search (VNS) approach. Computational results show that this approach is able reduce the duality gap provided by state-of-the-art MIP solver CPLEX for small and medium-sized instances and is also able to provide high-quality solutions for large-scale instances with up to 2,900 candidate facilities. The building blocks of the solution approach can easily be rearranged in order to solve other facility location problems.     

Fatal crash involvement of unlicensed young drivers: County level differences according to material deprivation and urbanicity in the United States

Objectives

This study assessed the association between county level material deprivation and urbanization with fatal road traffic crashes involving young unlicensed drivers in the United States (US).

Background

Road traffic crashes have been positively associated with area deprivation and low population density but thus far few studies have been concerned specifically with young drivers, especially those that are unlicensed.

Methods

A county material deprivation index was derived from the Townsend Material Deprivation Index, with variables extracted from the US Census (2000). An urbanicity scale was adapted from the US Department of Agriculture's Rural–Urban Continuum Codes (2003). Data on fatal crashes involving a young unlicensed driver during a seven-year period (2000–2006; n = 3059) were extracted from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System. The effect of deprivation and urbanicity on the odds of the occurrence of at least one fatal crash at the county level was modeled by conditional and unconditional logistic regression.

Results

The conditional model found a positive association between material deprivation and a fatal crash involving a young unlicensed driver (OR = 1.19, 95% CI 1.17, 1.21). The interaction between urbanicity and material deprivation was negatively associated in suburban counties for fatal crashes (OR = 0.92, 95% CI 0.90, 0.95).

Conclusions

An association with material deprivation and the likelihood of a fatal crash involving a young unlicensed driver is a new finding. It can be used to inform specific county-level interventions and promote state licensing policies to provide equity in young people's mobility regardless of where they live.     

A computational strategy for the localization and fracture of laminated composites. part 2. life prediction by mesoscale modeling for composite structures

The one-dimensional study presented in Part 1 of this paper is extended to the case of a two-dimensional layer laminate composite T300/914 subjected to a static bi-tension and shear. The regularization of this problem is due to the use of evolutionary models with delay effect where the velocity of damage is limited. The size of the localization area in the plane of the layers is related to the characteristic time of the model with delay and the loading rate. The work shows that the use of mesomodeling coupled with models of time delay damage evolution has identified the general localization area and has correctly predicted the time of fracture.     

From traditional wristwatch to smartwatch: Understanding the relationship between innovation attributes,switching costs and consumers' switching intention

Smartwatches are one of the most disruptive innovations of the past decade. However, these hi-tech gadgets fail to attract interest in the same way as smartphones, or tablet PCs. Despite optimistic market growth forecasts, smartwatches have not taken the place of traditional wristwatches until today, and the number of people who use traditional wristwatches outnumbered those who use smartwatches. This study is thus motivated to examine the factors that affect traditional wristwatch users' intentions to switch to smartwatches. Based on the Diffusion of Innovations Theory, a research model was developed involving perceived product lifetime, financial switching costs, and procedural switching costs. The proposed model was then empirically evaluated using survey data collected from 234 actual traditional wristwatch users about their perception of switching intentions to smartwatches. The findings revealed that relative advantage and financial switching costs significantly influence traditional wristwatch users’ behavioral intentions to switch to smartwatches. Furthermore, financial switching costs mediated the effects of relative advantage and perceived product lifetime on the switching intention. Surprisingly, perceived product lifetime, complexity, and procedural switching costs do not have direct impacts on switching intention.