计及台风极端天气影响的城市能源规划

气候变化导致极端天气事件频发,给城市能源供应带来了前所未有的挑战.但现有的城市能源规划研究较少考虑极端天气事件对城市能源系统的影响.基于天气历史数据与极端天气条件下系统运行情况生成极端天气情景,提出融合常规情景与极端天气情景的城市能源规划模型架构,并以厦门市的城市电源规划为案例展开研究.结果表明,当考虑以"十年一遇"或...     

能源供需预测和规划应以市场为基础

论述了能源供需规划有关的问题,提出了建立国家能源模型的设想,简要介绍了美国国家能源模型体系。     

多约束条件下城市能源规划前期研究方法及案例分析

城市能源规划是引导城市能源供给侧和消费侧转型的顶层设计文件。结合城市能源规划研究和编制的实际复杂情况,自主设计了一套可复制、可推广的城市能源规划前期研究方法体系,为城市能源规划工作提供实用指导与参考。梳理了规划前期研究的4个阶段,提出能源供需形势情景量化分析的“6步骤”,提出基于约束条件分析、趋势预测分析和专家研判分析的转型潜力“3Y”分析法。最后基于S市的能源发展历史成效与未来形势,使用提出的方法学量化研判S市的能源供需形势,基于情景比较结果提出能源变革发展目标、重点任务和保障措施等建议。     

城市能源规划及发展战略探讨

城市能源规划的编制是一个涉及多目标、多价值的决策过程,在此过程中应充分考虑经济、社会、生态等诸多因素,并在满足国家及地方生态要求的基础上开展相关工作,这样才能够保证城市能源规划的科学性和有效性,促进城市能源体系的健康有序发展。能源规划隶属于行业规划,在现阶段能源短缺问题日益突出的状态下,传统的城市能源规划已经与时代的发展脱节,因此需要在深入研究城市能源规划的基础上,对其发展战略进行探讨,以发挥城市能源规划应有的效果。     

Excel在企业能源平衡数据处理中的应用

能源平衡是企业经营管理的一种重要方法,是能源审计的基础。在能源平衡测试中有大量的数据需处理。一个中小型工厂能源平衡测试数据达数万个,要处理这些数据需各种工作表数百张,图表几十张,分类、汇总、计算、修改、校对工作非常繁琐。80年代末,一般都是用计算器计算,     

向能源要效益 做好能源规划

1991～2000年我国将实现发展国民经济的第二步战略目标,这十年也是社会主义现代化建设非常关键的时期.今年是“八五”计划和十年规划的第一年,国务院确定为“质量、品种、效益年”,提高效益是各行各业工作的重点.能源是社会和经济发展的重要物质基础,能源问题是关系到全局的大事.浙江省能源资源十分贫乏,煤炭运输路线长,经济发展长期受能源的困扰.我们应该总结经验,把能源作为整个经济活动大系     

可再生能源规划破局

8月6日,由国家能源局组织制定的《可再生能源发展“十二五”规划》（简称《规划》）正式发布。根据《规划》到2015年,可再生能源年利用量在能源消费中的比重达到9．5％以上。这将意味着在国内电力体系中,占比较小的可再生能源发电正在逐步提升。     

城市节能前提:能源规划必不可少

党的十八大提出了五位一体的总体布局,指明节能减排事关城市可持续发展进程,和人民群众福祉。中国的城市化在世界城市化进程中是史无前例的,这种在中国经济总体向好前提下的快速进程不仅为中国经济提供动力源泉而且将对世界的发展产生深远的影响。然而,中国城市化却面临着环境和资源的巨大挑战。这种挑战首先需要在城市规划层面上权衡、统筹和协调--城市能源规划也因此被推到台前。     

Evaluation of the effectiveness of an energy efficiency program for new home construction in eastern North Carolina

This paper reports on the evaluation of the effectiveness of an energy efficiency program in eastern North Carolina. This subject program is focused on improved construction methods for residential housing. The program incorporates proven energy saving technologies, construction procedures, onsite inspections, and design construction methodologies in new residential construction. The analysis compared the energy usage associated with the houses built in conjunction with the energy efficiency program (test group) with similar new residential construction unrelated to the program (control group). Several statistical methods were employed to establish differences between the energy efficiency program participants and the control group. The analysis provides significant support for the effectiveness of this energy efficiency program and supports the suitability of similar efforts for inclusion in plans for renewable energy offsets and energy efficiency standards.     

大数据驱动的我国新能源汽车需求分析

文章基于网络搜索大数据,以新能源汽车为例,结合统计学和计量经济学理论与方法,利用斯皮尔曼相关系数、协整检验和格兰杰因果关系,检验分析了搜索指数与新能源汽车实际需求之间的关系。以新能源汽车历史销量作为单一变量建立自回归滑动平均模型(ARMA),并与加入了搜索指数的向量自回归模型(VAR)进行比较。结果表明,加入搜索指数的预测模型相较传统的预测模型,在样本期内和样本期外的预测精度分别提高了11.69%和14.95%。该模型只需利用前4个月的新能源汽车销售数据和网络搜索大数据,就能够准确地预测下一个月的需求,在提高预测时效性的同时,也为个人、企业和政府决策提供可靠的依据。     

Centralisation and decentralisation in strategic municipal energy planning in Denmark

Denmark's future energy system is to be entirely based on renewable energy sources. Municipalities will play an important role as local energy planning authorities in terms of adopting and refining this vision in different local contexts. Based on a review of 11 municipal energy plans, this paper examines to what extent municipal energy planning matches national 100% renewable energy strategies. The results indicate a willingness among Danish municipalities to actively carry out energy planning, and the plans reveal a large diversity of (new) activities. At the same time, however, there is a strong need for better coordination of municipal energy planning activities at the central level. It is suggested that the role of municipalities as energy planning authorities needs to be outlined more clearly in, e.g., strategic energy planning which integrates savings, efficiency and renewable energy in all (energy) sectors. This requires the state to provide municipalities with the necessary planning instruments and establish a corresponding planning framework. Consequently, there is a need for a simultaneous centralisation and decentralisation during the implementation of the 100% renewable energy vision. The paper outlines a basic division of tasks between the central and the local level within such a strategic energy planning system.     

石灰炉热工优化与节能的研究

建立在热平衡和物料平衡基础上 ,对某厂4m× 2 1m石灰炉热平衡状态的主要影响因素进行了热工过程分析 ,提出了石灰炉的最优控制条件和措施 ,并对其节能效益进行了估计。     

A life cycle energy assessment for biogas energy in Serbia

The aim of this paper was to present the energy flows in the life cycle of biogas utilization systems (cogeneration and transportation), as well as their mutual relations, starting from providing the feedstock for digestion through to end-of-life management of biogas system as fertilizer on agricultural land. This study was carried out through the energy analysis of two scenarios (biogas in cogeneration and biogas in transportation) using performance of Mirotin biogas plant (1 MW) in Serbia. Results obtained in this study have shown that the analyzed scenario (biogas in cogeneration and biogas in transportation) have positive energy balances (52,114 and 53,585 GJ) and these scenarios are sustainable from energetic point of view.     

锅炉房设计方案对系统节能及环境效益的影响分析

介绍一个有效治理锅炉房噪音、同时具有更佳系统节能和环境效益的设计新方案 ,并对该方案提出了传热计算简化模型。利用此模型分析了该方案节能及环保效益的各种影响因素 ,提出设计中应采取的措施及该方案的技术性限制 ,可供广大设计人员及能源环保工作者参考。     

生活垃圾处理项目中综合处理技术的应用

以处理能力为500 t/d的江苏沭阳县生活垃圾综合处理项目为例,通过采用以水为主要介质的前分选分类工艺及配套资源和能源再生利用技术,对生活垃圾进行无害化、减量化处理,并最终实现资源/能源化利用的目的,获得的利废产品成本低廉、质量优良,市场前景广阔。文章认为采取综合处理技术是今后生活垃圾处理的有效途经。     

An inexact two-stage stochastic energy systems planning model for managing greenhouse gas emission at a municipal level

Energy management systems are highly complicated with greenhouse-gas emission reduction issues and a variety of social, economic, political, environmental and technical factors. To address such complexities, municipal energy systems planning models are desired as they can take account of these factors and their interactions within municipal energy management systems. This research is to develop an interval-parameter two-stage stochastic municipal energy systems planning model (ITS-MEM) for supporting decisions of energy systems planning and GHG (greenhouse gases) emission management at a municipal level. ITS-MEM is then applied to a case study. The results indicated that the developed model was capable of supporting municipal energy systems planning and environmental management under uncertainty. Solutions of ITS-MEM would provide an effective linkage between the pre-regulated environmental policies (GHG-emission reduction targets) and the associated economic implications (GHG-emission credit trading).     

灰色GM(1,1)和神经网络组合的能源预测模型

能源消费预测是制定能源规划的重要组成部分。鉴于能源消费系统复杂性和非线性的特征，文章结合某省能源消费的历史数据，首先用灰色预测和神经网络建立了单项预测模型．并对单项预测模型的优缺点进行了分析，然后采用最优组合权重的方法进行优化组合，从而获得更为精确的预测模型和预测值。实例的预测结果表明该模型可以作为能源消费预测的有效工具。     

浙江省城市能源基础设施现状分析与探讨

浙江省常规能源资源比较匮乏,随着城市化进程的深入及人们生活水平的提高,能源供需矛盾日益突出,能源基础设施建设步伐相对滞后于快速增长的能源消费需求。文章探讨了浙江省城市能源基础设施发展现状,对比分析了具有代表性的能源指标,并对浙江省的能源建设提出了建议。