基于量子行为粒子群优化算法的河道糙率反演

糙率是河道水动力模型的重要参数,在模型中敏感性高,但其在实际工作中难以准确测定。量子行为粒子群算法(QPSO)是粒子群算法的发展,相对于粒子群算法,在全局收敛和收敛率上有很大提高。将量子行为粒子群优化算法与一维河道水动力模型耦合,建立河道糙率反演模型,并在淮河干流蚌埠到花园咀河段进行了模拟,取得了较好的效果。与其他糙率反演算法相比,该算法具有理论简单、参数少、易于编程实现、通用性强等优点。     

水动力学模型实时校正方法研究

多年来,国内外学者对水动力学模型应用于洪水预报做了大量研究,然而,由于预报精度不理想,长期以来未能在实时作业预报中得以广泛应用.为提高水动力学模型在洪水实时作业预报中的计算精度,研究从一维水动力学模型差分方程出发,通过对糙率参数的影响试验,研发出一种利用新息变化自动校正糙率系数的算法.该算法通过实时校正糙率系数达到对一维水动力学模型预报误差的实时校正.在长江干流清溪场至万县河段试验结果表明:目标函数一步及多步预报误差均有大幅降低,取得了提高预报精度的显著效果.本算法不改变水动力学模型的递推和使用糙率系数的算法结构,可以直接作为附加校正器加入到原水动力学计算程序中去,应用方便.     

淮河正阳关至浮山段行洪区调整与河道整治效果分析北大核心CSCD

建立了淮河干流正阳关至浮山河段的一维、二维耦合水动力数学模型,利用实际洪水资料对模型进行率定与验证。通过所建模型,对整治方案不同洪水量级条件进行计算,评估干流河道整治和行洪区调整规划方案的效果。计算结果表明,行洪区启用前计算水位与规划值相差不大,但设计条件下,计算水位远高于规划值,表明本轮整治工程实施后,规划目标尚未完全达到。研究表明沿淮河生产圩高程变化、河道糙率取值和行洪区流量分配是影响计算结果的三个最主要因素。     

浅析史灌河洪涝灾害与治理措施

史灌河(灌河口以上称史河)发源于大别山北麓安徽省金寨县牛山,流经安徽省六安市与河南省固始县,于固始县三河尖汇入淮河。河道全长222km,梅山水库控制面积1970km2,总库容22.64亿m3,梅山水库以下河道长122.47km,流域总面积6895km2,为淮河南岸最大的支流,是淮河干流洪水的主要来源之一。     

淮河正阳关至浮山段行洪区调整与河道整治效果分析

建立了淮河干流正阳关至浮山河段的一维、二维耦合水动力数学模型,利用实际洪水资料对模型进行率定与验证。通过所建模型,对整治方案不同洪水量级条件进行计算,评估干流河道整治和行洪区调整规划方案的效果。计算结果表明,行洪区启用前计算水位与规划值相差不大,但设计条件下,计算水位远高于规划值,表明本轮整治工程实施后,规划目标尚未完全达到。研究表明沿淮河生产圩高程变化、河道糙率取值和行洪区流量分配是影响计算结果的三个最主要因素。     

百色水利枢纽洪水预报方案研究

百色水利枢纽位于珠江流域西江水系最大支流郁江干流右江的上游河段，库区中小型水电站众多，对百色水利枢纽入库洪水预报影响较大。通过对流域的下垫面条件进行分析，设置了合理的预报断面，选用新安江模型进行洪水预报，采用马斯京根法进行河道演算，通过调洪演算模型模拟水电站调节对洪水预报过程的影响，并配置了实时校正模型对预报流量进行校正。根据各断面的水雨情资料，采用粒子群算法对预报模型参数进行了率定，分析了各预报断面的合格率及影响洪水预报精度的原因。     

淮河干流浮山至洪泽湖出口段 水动力数学模型研究

淮河干流浮山至洪泽湖段河道呈倒比降,入湖河段河道分汉,湖区支流入汇众多,流态复 杂。本文针对该河段的特点,建立了淮河干流浮山至洪泽湖出口段一、二维藕合洪水演进数学模型, 模拟了2003, 2007年本段洪水演进的过程。结果表明计算值与实测值吻合较好,模型计算精度较高, 可为浮山以下河道不同治理方案的研究提供分析计算平台。     

信江白塔河柏泉站河段干流对支流顶托响应分析

河道的水位流量关系直接影响着水文资料整编的可靠性,合理而准确的水位流量关系可为水文预报和水利管理提供依据,精确的水位流量关系分析对河道水情分析和防洪管理有重要意义。以白塔河柏泉水文站河段为研究对象,借助Mike21软件建立河道水动力模型,模拟河道水流动力学过程,分析洪水顶托影响下站址断面水位流量曲线和干流沿程水面线,并通过情景模拟,剖析支流洪水对干流顶托作用。结果表明：水动力模型的模拟结果与实测值基本一致,相关系数为0.98,纳什效率系数为0.85,精度满足基本要求;河道水动力学模型可较全面分析干支流交汇处的水流变化状况以及干支流洪水过程的耦合响应;支流不同洪水的洪峰和洪量对干流顶托作用明显,而且与干支流洪峰到达时间的同步性关系较大。     

淮河干流中游河道糙率的分析与验证

天然河道糙率的研究,对于水文预报、洪水调查,以及河道治理规划、设计都起着重要的作用,河道糙率选择得正确与否,直接影响着河道的防洪安全和工程措施的安排。为了淮河干流防洪规划的需要,我们对淮河干流中游河道糙率进行了一些分析与验证。     

固始县以大局为重 抓紧淮河清障

近几年来。由于种种原因,淮河经河南省固始县境内四十七公里长的河段及其主要支流史灌河,河道内阻水工程和阻水作物有增无减,使河道泄洪能力下降了一千多个秒立米,洪水下泄速度缓慢,不仅拉长了防汛战线,而且危及堤防安全。中央防总《关于做好一九八六年防汛工作的通知》下发后,信阳地委、行署及时在固始县召     

Real-time flood forecasting of Huai River with flood diversion and retarding areas

A combination of the rainfall-runoff module of the Xin’anjiang model, the Muskingum routing method, the water stage simulating hydrologic method, the diffusion wave nonlinear water stage method, and the real-time error correction method is applied to the real-time flood forecasting and regulation of the Huai River with flood diversion and retarding areas. The Xin’anjiang model is used to forecast the flood discharge hydrograph of the upstream and tributary. The flood routing of the main channel and flood diversion areas is based on the Muskingum method. The water stage of the downstream boundary condition is calculated with the water stage simulating hydrologic method and the water stages of each cross section are calculated from downstream to upstream with the diffusion wave nonlinear water stage method. The input flood discharge hydrograph from the main channel to the flood diversion area is estimated with the fixed split ratio of the main channel discharge. The flood flow inside the flood retarding area is calculated as a reservoir with the water balance method. The faded-memory forgetting factor least square of error series is used as the real-time error correction method for forecasting discharge and water stage. As an example, the combined models were applied to flood forecasting and regulation of the upper reaches of the Huai River above Lutaizi during the 2007 flood season. The forecast achieves a high accuracy and the results show that the combined models provide a scientific way of flood forecasting and regulation for a complex watershed with flood diversion and retarding areas.     

基于 MIKE21 FM 的南渡江河口段行洪能力分析

为预测并分析滨江西带状公园建设后对南渡江河口段行洪能力的影响,基于MIKE21FM水动力模块,建立了南渡江河口段平面二维水流数值模型。首先结合水文站实测洪水资料,对河口段河道、滩地糙率参数进行率定与验证。将公园模型概化为局部阻力修正和局部地形修正两种方式,然后分别模拟计算三种潮洪组合工况下河口段水面线和流场变化。计算结果表明,两种概化方式计算结果基本一致,公园建设后河道地形和糙率发生变化,导致水面线壅高和主流流速加大。阻力修正法计算的水面线壅高值稍偏大,但仍低于左右岸防洪堤设计水位,没有降低南渡江河口段防洪能力。司马坡岛附近局部出现高流速区,有必要采取相应的防冲措施。     

Flood Inundation Modeling Using Nakagami-<Emphasis Type="Italic">m</Emphasis> Distribution Based GIUH for a Partially Gauged Catchment

Flood inundation extent is highly dependent on intensive rainfall and topography of floodplain. This paper presents a study to develop a flood inundation model for partially gauged upper Ganga catchment. For design flood computations, 100-year return period of 1 h duration rainfall is adopted. This is obtained by intensity duration frequency (IDF) relationship based on Self Recording Rain Gauge (SRRG) data of the study area. The SCS-CN method is used for rainfall excess computations. The Nakagami-m distribution has been used to compute Geomorphological Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph (GIUH) of different sub-catchments of upper Ganga river system because of non-availability of observed hydrograph. Routing of the hydrograph has been done by the Kinematic Wave (KW) approach. KW equations have been solved through Preissmann implicit method. The most sensitive KW parameters (i.e. overland roughness and channel roughness) have been estimated for a stretch on river Bhagirathi, a tributary of river Ganga. Nakagami-m distribution based GIUHs have been fed at the upper (i.e. input to the proposed model) as well as at downstream point (i.e. output to the proposed model) of that river stretch. Consequently, KW parameters have been calibrated by comparing the computed hydrograph with output hydrograph. Validation of estimated KW parameters has been carried out in the catchment of river Alaknanda which is another significant tributary of river Ganga. Thereafter, adopted KW parameters have been applied to calculate the design flood peak at the outlet of study area i.e. downstream of Haridwar city. Computations of overtopping water above the natural levees downstream of Haridwar city have been carried out considering the levee as broad crested weir. Topographic features of the floodplain have been obtained from freely available Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) data. Finally, extents of submerged areas in different flood hours corresponding to design rainfall have been developed by ArcGIS 9.2 software.     

Analysis of dynamic wave model for flood routing in natural rivers

Flooding is a common natural disaster that causes enormous economic, social, and human losses. Of various flood routing methods, the dynamic wave model is one of the best approaches for the prediction of the characteristics of floods during their propagations in natural rivers because all of the terms of the momentum equation are considered in the model. However, no significant research has been conducted on how the model sensitivity affects the accuracy of the downstream hydrograph. In this study, a comprehensive analysis of the input parameters of the dynamic wave model was performed through field applications in natural rivers and routing experiments in artificial channels using the graphical multi-parametric sensitivity analysis (GMPSA). The results indicate that the effects of input parameter errors on the output results are more significant in special situations, such as lower values of Manning’s roughness coefficient and/or a steeper bed slope on the characteristics of a design hydrograph, larger values of the skewness factor and/or time to peak on the channel characteristics, larger values of Manning’s roughness coefficient and/or the bed slope on the space step, and lower values of Manning’s roughness coefficient and/or a steeper bed slope on the time step and weighting factor.     

WRF-Hydro模型参数在河西内陆河流域的敏感性分析

为研究WRF-Hydro模型参数在河西内陆河流域的敏感性，以西营河流域九条岭水文站以上区域为研究区，在离线模式下利用2015—2018年的全球预报系统(GFS)数据驱动WRF-Hydro模型。基于LH-OAT方法对WRF-Hydro模型的6个主要参数对不同评价指标和空间分辨率的汇流演算网格的敏感性进行了分析，定量计算了各参数的敏感性指标，划分了敏感度等级，并结合典型洪水分析了各参数对洪水过程线的具体影响。结果表明：河道曼宁糙率乘子(MANNFAC)为极敏感参数，入渗系数(REFKDT)、土壤饱和导水率(REFDK)、深层导水系数(slope)为敏感参数，地表糙率乘子(OVROUGHRTFAC)为一般敏感参数，地表持水深度乘子(RETDEPRTFAC)为不敏感参数；各参数的敏感性并不是一成不变的，参数敏感度会受到评价指标的影响，有一定程度的变化；随着汇流演算网格空间分辨率的变化，各参数全局敏感度也会有小幅变化，但参数的全局敏感度等级不发生改变；MANNFAC对峰现时间的调节效果最好，REFKDT和REFDK对洪量和洪峰流量的调节效果显著，slope可以很好地调节洪水过程线的形状。     

基于协整理论的淮河流域上游洪水预报实时校正方法

为了提高淮河流域上游的洪水预报精度,引入计量经济学中的协整理论与误差修正模型用于洪水预报实时校正;同时为了解决自回归算法无法针对非平稳序列建模以及序贯相关性问题,构建了基于误差修正概念的自回归误差修正模型。以淮河鲁台子站以上流域为研究区域,基于分布式垂向混合产流模型模拟结果,分别构建一阶至三阶自回归模型、误差修正模型和基于误差修正的自回归模型对模拟结果进行校正,采用修正效果评价系数、确定性系数、洪峰相对误差、径流深相对误差和峰现时差5个评价指标,分析对比各校正模型对流域2003—2014年10场洪水的校正效果。结果表明:3种实时校正方法均对淮河流域上游洪水有一定的校正效果,其中,自回归模型校正效果最差,排除误差序列非平稳的两次洪水后,其平均修正效果评价系数为0.20;误差修正模型能够有效校正预报洪水,其平均修正效果评价系数为0.76;基于误差修正的自回归模型校正效果较好,与传统自回归模型相比,对洪峰流量的校正效果显著提高,其平均修正效果评价系数达到0.98,可用于淮河流域上游洪水预报的实时校正。     

Evaluating the Impacts of a Large-Scale Multi-Reservoir System on Flooding: Case of the Huai River in China

The extensive constructions of reservoirs change the hydrologic characteristics of the associated watersheds, which increases the complexity of watershed flood control decisions. By evaluating the impacts of the multi-reservoir system on the flood hydrograph, it becomes possible to improve the effectiveness of the flood control decisions. This study compares the non-reservoir flood hydrograph with the actual observed flood hydrograph using the Lutaizi upstream of Huai River in East China as a representative case, where 20 large-scale/large-sized reservoirs have been built. Based on the total impact of the multi-reservoir system, a novel strategy is presented to evaluate the contribution of each reservoir to the total impact. According their contributions, the “highly effective” reservoirs for watershed flood control are identified via hierarchical clustering. Moreover, the degree of impact of the reservoir operation rules on the flood hydrograph are estimated. We find the multi-reservoir system of Huai River has a significant impact on flooding at the Lutaizi section, on average reducing the flood volume and peak discharge by 13.92 × 10⁸ m³ and 18.7% respectively. Under the current operation rules, the volume and peak discharge of flooding at the Lutaizi section are reduced by 13.69 × 10⁸ m³ and 1429 m³/s respectively. Each reservoir has a different impact on the flood hydrograph at the Lutaizi section. In particular, the Meishan, Xianghongdian, Suyahu, Nanwan, Nianyushan and Foziling reservoirs exert a strong influence on the flood hydrograph, and are therefore important for flood control on the Huai River.     

基于马斯京根法的嫩江江桥-大赉段洪水演算

针对嫩江江桥-大赉河段洪水演进不平衡问题,首先分析了1998年前后江桥和大赉两个水文站的径流变化规律;然后引入河道洪水演进损失系数,建立了基于分段马斯京根方法的江桥-大赉河段的洪水演算模型;最后利用1998年后洪水资料,采用粒子群优化算法率定了河道洪水演进参数和洪水演进损失系数,并分析了参数和损失系数的合理性。结果表明,由于受1998年大洪水的冲刷以及河道两岸冲毁的影响,嫩江江桥-大赉段河道洪水传播速度加快,同时在演进过程中洪水向河道外满溢,导致上下游水量不平衡。     

DYNAMIC CORRECTION OF ROUGHNESS IN THE HYDRODYNAMIC MODEL

Based on the hydrodynamic model and the Xinanjiang model, the river stage forecasting model has been proposed. But its performance is not satisfactory as applied to estuary areas. River roughness is a sensitive parameter in the hydrodynamic model, and its value is related to some substantial uncertainties in the tidal river. According to roughness tests, a new method of roughness dynamic correction was developed to improve the performance of the stage model. The method was focused on the usage of observed data for the studied section, and its parameters were analyzed. Nested with the dynamic correction of roughness, the stage model was applied to the tidal reach of the Caoe River. The results demonstrate that the roughness dynamic correction can improve the simulation accuracy of the stage model, and especially has the capacity of reducing the errors at peak stages.     

Application of Muskingum routing method with variable parameters in ungauged basin

This paper describes a flood routing method applied in an ungauged basin, utilizing the Muskingum model with variable parameters of wave travel time K and weight coefficient of discharge x based on the physical characteristics of the river reach and flood, including the reach slope, length, width, and flood discharge. Three formulas for estimating parameters of wide rectangular, triangular, and parabolic cross sections are proposed. The influence of the flood on channel flow routing parameters is taken into account. The HEC-HMS hydrological model and the geospatial hydrologic analysis module HEC-GeoHMS were used to extract channel or watershed characteristics and to divide sub-basins. In addition, the initial and constant-rate method, user synthetic unit hydrograph method, and exponential recession method were used to estimate runoff volumes, the direct runoff hydrograph, and the baseflow hydrograph, respectively. The Muskingum model with variable parameters was then applied in the Louzigou Basin in Henan Province of China,and of the results, the percentages of flood events with a relative error of peak discharge less than 20% and runoff volume less than 10% are both 100%. They also show that the percentages of flood events with coefficients of determination greater than 0.8 are 83.33%, 91.67%, and 87.5%,respectively, for rectangular, triangular, and parabolic cross sections in 24 flood events. Therefore,this method is applicable to ungauged basins.