基于SEIR-ARIMA混合模型的新冠肺炎预测

新型冠状病毒肺炎简称新冠肺炎,是一种由新型冠状病毒引起的急性感染性肺炎,具有传染性强、人群普遍易感的特点。因此,对新冠肺炎感染人数的预测,不仅仅有利于国家面对疫情做出科学决策,而且有利于及时整合防疫资源。本文提出一种基于传统的传染病动力模型SEIR和差分整合移动平均自回归模型ARIMA构建的SEIR-ARIMA混合模型,对不同时间段、不同地点的新冠肺炎疫情做出预测和分析。从实验结果上看,基于SEIR-ARIMA混合模型的预测,比常见的用于新冠肺炎预测的逻辑回归Logistic、长短期记忆人工神经网络LSTM、SEIR模型、ARIMA模型有较好的预测效果。为了真实地反映出实验效果的提高是否源于SEIR与ARIMA模型结合的优势,本文还实现SEIR-Logistic混合模型和SEIR-LSTM混合模型,并与SEIR-ARIMA对比分析得出,SEIR-ARIMA预测都取得更好的预测效果。因此,基于SEIR-ARIMA混合模型对新冠肺炎的发展趋势的分析相对可靠,有利于国家面对疫情的科学决策,对我国未来预防其他类型的传染病具有很好的应用价值。     

What were we thinking? A scoping review of crisis management pandemic literature (1984–2019)

Pandemics are now the focus of research attention in the fields of preparedness and crisis management. As pandemics are some of the largest crises to occur, an important question becomes ‘what were the field of crisis management thinking about pandemic management’. This paper investigates how the field of crisis management have incorporated the body of knowledge arising from pandemics into its science (from 1984 to 2019). We performed a scoping review of 4 journals on crisis management and what they have written about pandemics (230 papers). The findings are summarized in eight different categories. The main result is that the field of crisis management have shown sparse interest in pandemics. We attribute this to factors such as fragmentation of academic sciences when the problem-solving needs integration, perceived incommensurability and the organization of attention. We argue that the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic can provide a basis for posing new questions in research on, and the political debate around, societal vulnerability at large and not only restricted to recent experiences of particular crises. Finally, we argue that this will need a stronger integration of research strands and communities, which in turn require the ability to ‘connect the dots’ between different sources of knowledge.     

Technology transfer and sustainability-adapting factors： Culture, physical environment and geographical location

In the development and sustenance of a community, state, or nation, the advancement of technology is vital for survival; here, the need for technology transfer arises and becomes a critical landmark. There are adapting factors in the process of technology transfer that must be addressed to ensure successful technological developments and their continued progress and sustainability. Focused on the successful transfer of sustainable technology to Saudi Arabia, a methodology of measuring physical environments, cultural and infrastructural support, and geographical locations was thoroughly researched and developed. Using a survey instrument based on questions derived from available literature on factors affecting technology transfer, data was collected from private manufacturing industries in Saudi Arabia. Data analysis included person-product-moment correlations and simultaneous regression. The hypotheses were tested at the 0.05 level of significance. In summary, the results indicated that culture, physical environment, and geographical location all have significant effects on technology transfer; necessary accommodations for these adapting factors then become vital to the success of technology transfer and will strongly facilitate the effectiveness of the technology.     

Online socializing: How does it affect the information seeking behavior and the educational preferences in Saudi Arabia?

There are three major issues, among others, associated with the rapid adoption of information technology in Saudi Arabia. These are the changes in online socializing (through Social Media), the information seeking behavior, and the eLearning developments in the local academic institutions. In this causal exploratory research study the main idea was to find the effect of the changes of the former on the latter two. Saudi Arabia is the geographic scope of the study as the most important and influential country in the region. A pre-tested and moderated questionnaire, administered both on- and offline, was used to gather the relevant data. Findings indicate a shift from the conventional to the online information seeking behaviors and a preference of a blended educational system, both traditional (classroom) and eLearning or similar, despite the deep and dramatic penetration of social media in the country that could lead to the false assumption that the local population, especially young people, would turn their back on the conventional education processes.     

基于预训练-微调策略的COVID-19预测模型

COVID-19的世界性大流行对整个社会产生了严重的影响,通过数学建模对确诊病例数进行预测将有助于为公共卫生决策提供依据。在复杂多变的外部环境下,基于深度学习的传染病预测模型成为研究热点。然而,现有模型对数据量要求较高,在进行监督学习时不能很好地适应低数据量的场景,导致预测精度降低。构建结合预训练-微调策略的COVID-19预测模型P-GRU。通过在源地区数据集上采用预训练策略,使模型提前获得更多的疫情数据,从而学习到COVID-19的隐式演变规律,为模型预测提供更充分的先验知识,同时使用包含最近历史信息的固定长度序列预测后续时间点的确诊病例数,并在预测过程中考虑本地人为限制政策因素对疫情趋势的影响,实现针对目标地区数据集的精准预测。实验结果表明,预训练策略能够有效提高预测性能,相比于卷积神经网络、循环神经网络、长短期记忆网络和门控循环单元模型,P-GRU模型在平均绝对百分比误差和均方根误差评价指标上表现优异,更适合用于预测COVID-19传播趋势。     

Can crisis management teams mitigate COVID-19's effects? A comparative case study between China and the United States

The COVID-19 pandemic has been the world's greatest challenge since World War II. As an unprecedented global public health crisis, crisis management teams (CMTs) in the infected countries need to rethink to cope with the similar uncertainty and urgency of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. The shared context of COVID-19 allows us to explore a cross-nation study of different constructs and CMT to communicate information about crises with the public effectively. Since the pandemic affected all countries, the comparison is warranted. Can CMTs mitigate the effects of COVID-19? Based on the analysis of China and the US cases, our study explores how shared and common knowledge cognition among crisis responders plays a pivotal role in effective CMTs' communication while technological failures and inadequate information disrupt the system, worsening pandemics like COVID-19. Furthermore, organizational dysfunction, such as institutional fragmentation, regulatory hurdles and bureaucratic arrogance, impede effective communication between CMTs. However, effective coordination and decisive leadership could improve coordination effectiveness and reduce crisis costs.     

Occupational exposure to noise and hearing thresholds among civilian aircraft maintenance workers

High noise exposure is anticipated to be present in the aircraft maintenance operations in civil aviation sector. The objective of the present study is the assessment of noise exposure and hearing threshold of the aircraft maintenance workers in this sector. Noise levels were measured in the aircraft hangers and in the workshops at a main international airport in Saudi Arabia. Two hundred aircraft maintenance workers were subjected to pure tone audiometry. The average L_eq,8h at most of the aircraft maintenance operations was considerably high and most of the workers (89.5%) were exposed to noise levels ≥85 dBA. Frequency analysis of sound pressure levels revealed that the contribution of the octave bands 1, 2 and 4 kHz to the overall noise level was high. The audiograms of the examined workers showed significant hearing impairment as compared to non-noise-exposed Saudi employees. Although the observed excessive noise levels can cause hearing loss, the effect among the studied aircraft maintenance workers was mild. This might be attributed to the usage of hearing protection devices, the intermittent nature of the workers' exposure to noise and job rotation. Statistical analysis revealed significant association of both age and usage of hearing protectors with hearing loss. The effect of exposure duration on hearing loss was also detected.     

Attitudes towards mobile banking: are there any differences between users and non-users?

Extant research has focused on monitoring the behaviour of people who use mobile banking (MB) but it has paid little attention to understanding the impact of information technology usage behaviour due to cultural differences. Humans are the weakest link in information technology adoption; past research has shown that not all users are predisposed to change their behaviour radically and adopt new channels of banking. This paper examines the demographic patterns of users and non-users of MB. The paper also investigates the attitudinal influences of users and non-users of MB based on innovation attributes. Using empirical research, the study identifies constructs of innovation attributes that were perceived to be significantly different among the users and non-users of MB. The study provides valuable insights into MB in Saudi Arabia that have not been previously investigated. From a practical point, findings of this study will be particularly useful to banks, financial institutions and telecommunication service providers.     

自适应变异粒子群优化算法及在新冠肺炎疫情传播预测中的应用

为克服粒子群算法容易陷入局部最优和全局寻优精度不高的缺点,通过对算法的局部寻优和全局寻优的特点进行分析,首先使用正态分布衰减策略改进惯性权重;同时基于算法运行的时间自适应采用不同的基于高斯分布及柯西分布的变异优化策略,解决全局搜索和局部开发能力的不平衡问题,实现了局部寻优和全局寻优的双重优化,满足了提高寻优速度和寻优精...