Deep Learning and Holt-Trend Algorithms for Predicting Covid-19 Pandemic

The Covid-19 epidemic poses a serious public health threat to the world, where people with little or no pre-existing human immunity can be more vulnerable to its effects. Thus, developing surveillance systems for predicting the Covid-19 pandemic at an early stage could save millions of lives. In this study, a deep learning algorithm and a Holt-trend model are proposed to predict the coronavirus. The Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) and Holt-trend algorithms were applied to predict confirmed numbers and death cases. The real time data used has been collected from the World Health Organization (WHO). In the proposed research, we have considered three countries to test the proposed model, namely Saudi Arabia, Spain and Italy. The results suggest that the LSTM models show better performance in predicting the cases of coronavirus patients. Standard measure performance Mean squared Error (MSE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean error and correlation are employed to estimate the results of the proposed models. The empirical results of the LSTM, using the correlation metrics, are 99.94%, 99.94% and 99.91% in predicting the number of confirmed cases in the three countries. As far as the results of the LSTM model in predicting the number of death of Covid-19, they are 99.86%, 98.876% and 99.16% with respect to Saudi Arabia, Italy and Spain respectively. Similarly, the experiment’s results of the Holt-Trend model in predicting the number of confirmed cases of Covid-19, using the correlation metrics, are 99.06%, 99.96% and 99.94%, whereas the results of the Holt-Trend model in predicting the number of death cases are 99.80%, 99.96% and 99.94% with respect to the Saudi Arabia, Italy and Spain respectively. The empirical results indicate the efficient performance of the presented model in predicting the number of confirmed and death cases of Covid-19 in these countries. Such findings provide better insights regarding the future of Covid-19 this pandemic in general. The results were obtained by applying time series models, which need to be considered for the sake of saving the lives of many people.     

Prediction of COVID-19 Cases Using Machine Learning for Effective Public Health Management

COVID-19 is a pandemic that has affected nearly every country in the world. At present, sustainable development in the area of public health is considered vital to securing a promising and prosperous future for humans. However, widespread diseases, such as COVID-19, create numerous challenges to this goal, and some of those challenges are not yet defined. In this study, a Shallow Single-Layer Perceptron Neural Network (SSLPNN) and Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) model were used for the classification and prediction of confirmed COVID-19 cases in five geographically distributed regions of Asia with diverse settings and environmental conditions: namely, China, South Korea, Japan, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan. Significant environmental and non-environmental features were taken as the input dataset, and confirmed COVID-19 cases were taken as the output dataset. A correlation analysis was done to identify patterns in the cases related to fluctuations in the associated variables. The results of this study established that the population and air quality index of a region had a statistically significant influence on the cases. However, age and the human development index had a negative influence on the cases. The proposed SSLPNN-based classification model performed well when predicting the classes of confirmed cases. During training, the binary classification model was highly accurate, with a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 0.91. Likewise, the results of the regression analysis using the GPR technique with Matern 5/2 were highly accurate (RMSE = 0.95239) when predicting the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in an area. However, dynamic management has occupied a core place in studies on the sustainable development of public health but dynamic management depends on proactive strategies based on statistically verified approaches, like Artificial Intelligence (AI). In this study, an SSLPNN model has been trained to fit public health associated data into an appropriate class, allowing GPR to predict the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in an area based on the given values of selected parameters. Therefore, this tool can help authorities in different ecological settings effectively manage COVID-19.     

On the Detection of COVID-19 from Chest X-Ray Images Using CNN-Based Transfer Learning

Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an extremely infectious disease and possibly causes acute respiratory distress or in severe cases may lead to death. There has already been some research in dealing with coronavirus using machine learning algorithms, but few have presented a truly comprehensive view. In this research, we show how convolutional neural network (CNN) can be useful to detect COVID-19 using chest X-ray images. We leverage the CNN-based pre-trained models as feature extractors to substantiate transfer learning and add our own classifier in detecting COVID-19. In this regard, we evaluate performance of five different pre-trained models with fine-tuning the weights from some of the top layers. We also develop an ensemble model where the predictions from all chosen pre-trained models are combined to generate a single output. The models are evaluated through 5-fold cross validation using two publicly available data repositories containing healthy and infected (both COVID-19 and other pneumonia) chest X-ray images. We also leverage two different visualization techniques to observe how efficiently the models extract important features related to the detection of COVID- 19 patients. The models show high degree of accuracy, precision, and sensitivity. We believe that the models will aid medical professionals with improved and faster patient screening and pave a way to further COVID-19 research.     

Fuzzy Based Decision Making Approach for Evaluating the Severity of COVID-19 Pandemic in Cities of Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

The World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a pandemic on March 11, 2020 stating that it is a worldwide danger and requires imminent preventive strategies to minimise the loss of lives. COVID-19 has now affected millions across 211 countries in the world and the numbers continue to rise. The information discharged by the WHO till June 15, 2020 reports 8,063,990 cases of COVID-19. As the world thinks about the lethal malady for which there is yet no immunization or a predefined course of drug, the nations are relentlessly working at the most ideal preventive systems to contain the infection. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) is additionally combating with the COVID-19 danger as the cases announced till June 15, 2020 reached the count of 132,048 with 1,011 deaths. According to the report released by the KSA on June 14, 2020, more than 4,000 cases of COVID-19 pandemic had been registered in the country. Tending to the impending requirement for successful preventive instruments to stem the fatalities caused by the disease, our examination expects to assess the severity of COVID-19 pandemic in cities of KSA. In addition, computational model for evaluating the severity of COVID-19 with the perspective of social influence factor is necessary for controlling the disease. Furthermore, a quantitative evaluation of severity associated with specific regions and cities of KSA would be a more effective reference for the healthcare sector in Saudi Arabia. Further, this paper has taken the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) technique for quantitatively assessing the severity of COVID-19 pandemic in cities of KSA. The discoveries and the proposed structure would be a practical, expeditious and exceptionally precise evaluation system for assessing the severity of the pandemic in the cities of KSA. Hence these urban zones clearly emerge as the COVID-19 hotspots. The cities require suggestive measures of health organizations that must be introduced on a war footing basis to counter the pandemic. The analysis tabulated in our study will assist in mapping the rules and building a systematic structure that is immediate need in the cities with high severity levels due to the pandemic.     

Optimal Machine Learning Driven Sentiment Analysis on COVID-19 Twitter Data

The outbreak of the pandemic, caused by Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), has affected the daily activities of people across the globe. During COVID-19 outbreak and the successive lockdowns, Twitter was heavily used and the number of tweets regarding COVID-19 increased tremendously. Several studies used Sentiment Analysis (SA) to analyze the emotions expressed through tweets upon COVID-19. Therefore, in current study, a new Artificial Bee Colony (ABC) with Machine Learning-driven SA (ABCML-SA) model is developed for conducting Sentiment Analysis of COVID-19 Twitter data. The prime focus of the presented ABCML-SA model is to recognize the sentiments expressed in tweets made upon COVID-19. It involves data pre-processing at the initial stage followed by n-gram based feature extraction to derive the feature vectors. For identification and classification of the sentiments, the Support Vector Machine (SVM) model is exploited. At last, the ABC algorithm is applied to fine tune the parameters involved in SVM. To demonstrate the improved performance of the proposed ABCML-SA model, a sequence of simulations was conducted. The comparative assessment results confirmed the effectual performance of the proposed ABCML-SA model over other approaches.     

Intelligent Decision Support System for COVID-19 Empowered with Deep Learning

The prompt spread of Coronavirus (COVID-19) subsequently adorns a big threat to the people around the globe. The evolving and the perpetually diagnosis of coronavirus has become a critical challenge for the healthcare sector. Drastically increase of COVID-19 has rendered the necessity to detect the people who are more likely to get infected. Lately, the testing kits for COVID-19 are not available to deal it with required proficiency, along with-it countries have been widely hit by the COVID-19 disruption. To keep in view the need of hour asks for an automatic diagnosis system for early detection of COVID-19. It would be a feather in the cap if the early diagnosis of COVID-19 could reveal that how it has been affecting the masses immensely. According to the apparent clinical research, it has unleashed that most of the COVID-19 cases are more likely to fall for a lung infection. The abrupt changes do require a solution so the technology is out there to pace up, Chest X-ray and Computer tomography (CT) scan images could significantly identify the preliminaries of COVID-19 like lungs infection. CT scan and X-ray images could flourish the cause of detecting at an early stage and it has proved to be helpful to radiologists and the medical practitioners. The unbearable circumstances compel us to flatten the curve of the sufferers so a need to develop is obvious, a quick and highly responsive automatic system based on Artificial Intelligence (AI) is always there to aid against the masses to be prone to COVID-19. The proposed Intelligent decision support system for COVID-19 empowered with deep learning (ID2S-COVID19-DL) study suggests Deep learning (DL) based Convolutional neural network (CNN) approaches for effective and accurate detection to the maximum extent it could be, detection of coronavirus is assisted by using X-ray and CT-scan images. The primary experimental results here have depicted the maximum accuracy for training and is around 98.11 percent and for validation it comes out to be approximately 95.5 percent while statistical parameters like sensitivity and specificity for training is 98.03 percent and 98.20 percent respectively, and for validation 94.38 percent and 97.06 percent respectively. The suggested Deep Learning-based CNN model unleashed here opts for a comparable performance with medical experts and it is helpful to enhance the working productivity of radiologists. It could take the curve down with the downright contribution of radiologists, rapid detection of COVID-19, and to overcome this current pandemic with the proven efficacy.     

Drone-based AI/IoT Framework for Monitoring,Tracking and Fighting Pandemics

Since World Health Organization (WHO) has declared the Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) a global pandemic, the world has changed. All life's fields and daily habits have moved to adapt to this new situation. According to WHO, the probability of such virus pandemics in the future is high, and recommends preparing for worse situations. To this end, this work provides a framework for monitoring, tracking, and fighting COVID-19 and future pandemics. The proposed framework deploys unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), e.g.; quadcopter and drone, integrated with artificial intelligence (AI) and Internet of Things (IoT) to monitor and fight COVID-19. It consists of two main systems; AI/IoT for COVID-19 monitoring and drone-based IoT system for sterilizing. The two systems are integrated with the IoT paradigm and the developed algorithms are implemented on distributed fog units connected to the IoT network and controlled by software-defined networking (SDN). The proposed work is built based on a thermal camera mounted in a face-shield, or on a helmet that can be used by people during pandemics. The detected images, thermal images, are processed by the developed AI algorithm that is built based on the convolutional neural network (CNN). The drone system can be called, by the IoT system connected to the helmet, once infected cases are detected. The drone is used for sterilizing the area that contains multiple infected people. The proposed framework employs a single centralized SDN controller to control the network operations. The developed system is experimentally evaluated, and the results are introduced. Results indicate that the developed framework provides a novel, efficient scheme for monitoring and fighting COVID-19 and other future pandemics.     

Improved neural network model for reverse engineering

While conventional engineering transforms engineering concepts into real parts, in reverse engineering real parts are transformed into engineering models. The construction of a surface from three-dimensional (3D) measuring data points is an important problem in reverse engineering. This paper presents a reconstruction method for the sculptured surfaces from the 3D measuring data points. The surface reconstruction scheme is presented based on a neural network. The reconstruction of the existing surfaces is realized by training the network. A series of measuring points from existing sculptured surfaces is used as a training set. Once the neural network has been trained, it serves as a geometric model to generate all the points that are needed. However, the learning rate for the neural network is relatively slow, and the learning accuracy is often unacceptably low. In this paper, to improve the performance of the neural network, a pre-processor is proposed before the input layer. The pre-processor maps the input into the larger space by generating a set of linearly independent values. The effect of the pre-processor is to increase modelling accuracy, and reduce learning time. Based on this method, experimental results are given to show that the reconstructed surfaces are faithful to the original data points. The proposed scheme is useful for regular or irregular digitized data.     

Lightweight Transfer Learning Models for Ultrasound-Guided Classification of COVID-19 Patients

Lightweight deep convolutional neural networks (CNNs) present a good solution to achieve fast and accurate image-guided diagnostic procedures of COVID-19 patients. Recently, advantages of portable Ultrasound (US) imaging such as simplicity and safe procedures have attracted many radiologists for scanning suspected COVID-19 cases. In this paper, a new framework of lightweight deep learning classifiers, namely COVID-LWNet is proposed to identify COVID-19 and pneumonia abnormalities in US images. Compared to traditional deep learning models, lightweight CNNs showed significant performance of real-time vision applications by using mobile devices with limited hardware resources. Four main lightweight deep learning models, namely MobileNets, ShuffleNets, MENet and MnasNet have been proposed to identify the health status of lungs using US images. Public image dataset (POCUS) was used to validate our proposed COVID-LWNet framework successfully. Three classes of infectious COVID-19, bacterial pneumonia, and the healthy lung were investigated in this study. The results showed that the performance of our proposed MnasNet classifier achieved the best accuracy score and shortest training time of 99.0% and 647.0 s, respectively. This paper demonstrates the feasibility of using our proposed COVID-LWNet framework as a new mobile-based radiological tool for clinical diagnosis of COVID-19 and other lung diseases.     

KSUTraffic: A Microscopic Traffic Simulator for Traffic Planning in Smart Cities

Simulation is a powerful tool for improving, evaluating and analyzing the performance of new and existing systems. Traffic simulators provide tools for studying transportation systems in smart cities as they describe the evolution of traffic to the highest level of detail. There are many types of traffic simulators that allow simulating traffic in modern cities. The most popular traffic simulation approach is the microscopic traffic simulation because of its ability to model traffic in a realistic manner. In many cities of Saudi Arabia, traffic management represents a major challenge as a result of expansion in traffic demands and increasing number of incidents. Unfortunately, employing simulation to provide effective traffic management for local scenarios in Saudi Arabia is limited to a number of commercial products in both public and private sectors. Commercial simulators are usually expensive, closed source and inflexible as they allow limited functionalities. In this project, we developed a local traffic simulator “KSUtraffic” for traffic modeling, planning and analysis with respect to different traffic control strategies and considerations. We modeled information specified by GIS and real traffic data. Furthermore, we designed experiments that manipulate simulation parameters and the underlying area. KSUTraffic visualizes traffic and provides statistical results on the simulated traffic which would help to improve traffic management and efficiency.     

Intelligent Cloud IoMT Health Monitoring-Based System for COVID-19

The most common alarming and dangerous disease in the world today is the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The coronavirus is perceived as a group of coronaviruses which causes mild to severe respiratory diseases among human beings. The infection is spread by aerosols emitted from infected individuals during talking, sneezing, and coughing. Furthermore, infection can occur by touching a contaminated surface followed by transfer of the viral load to the face. Transmission may occur through aerosols that stay suspended in the air for extended periods of time in enclosed spaces. To stop the spread of the pandemic, it is crucial to isolate infected patients in quarantine houses. Government health organizations faced a lack of quarantine houses and medical test facilities at the first level of testing by the proposed model. If any serious condition is observed at the first level testing, then patients should be recommended to be hospitalized. In this study, an IoT-enabled smart monitoring system is proposed to detect COVID-19 positive patients and monitor them during their home quarantine. The Internet of Medical Things (IoMT), known as healthcare IoT, is employed as the foundation of the proposed model. The least-squares (LS) method was applied to estimate the linear model parameters for a sequential pilot survey. A statistical sequential analysis is performed as a pilot survey to efficiently collect preliminary data for an extensive survey of COVID-19 positive cases. The Bayesian approach is used, based on the assumption of the random variable for the priori distribution of the data sample. Fuzzy inference is used to construct different rules based on the basic symptoms of COVID-19 patients to make an expert decision to detect COVID-19 positive cases. Finally, the performance of the proposed model was determined by applying a four-fold cross-validation technique.     

A Deep-CNN Crowd Counting Model for Enforcing Social Distancing during COVID19 Pandemic: Application to Saudi Arabia’s Public Places

With the emergence of the COVID19 virus in late 2019 and the declaration that the virus is a worldwide pandemic, health organizations and governments have begun to implement severe health precautions to reduce the spread of the virus and preserve human lives. The enforcement of social distancing at work environments and public areas is one of these obligatory precautions. Crowd management is one of the effective measures for social distancing. By reducing the social contacts of individuals, the spread of the disease will be immensely reduced. In this paper, a model for crowd counting in public places of high and low densities is proposed. The model works under various scene conditions and with no prior knowledge. A Deep CNN model (DCNN) is built based on convolutional neural network (CNN) structure with small kernel size and two fronts. To increase the efficiency of the model, a convolutional neural network (CNN) as the front-end and a multi-column layer with Dilated Convolution as the back-end were chosen. Also, the proposed method accepts images of arbitrary sizes/scales as inputs from different cameras. To evaluate the proposed model, a dataset was created from images of Saudi people with traditional and non-traditional Saudi outfits. The model was also trained and tested on some existing datasets. Compared to current counting methods, the results show that the proposed model has significantly improved efficiency and reduced the error rate. We achieve the lowest MAE by 67%, 32% .and 15.63% and lowest MSE by around 47%, 15% and 8.1% than M-CNN, Cascaded-MTL, and CSRNet respectively.     

Approach for Training Quantum Neural Network to Predict Severity of COVID-19 in Patients

Currently, COVID-19 is spreading all over the world and profoundly impacting people’s lives and economic activities. In this paper, a novel approach called the COVID-19 Quantum Neural Network (CQNN) for predicting the severity of COVID-19 in patients is proposed. It consists of two phases: In the first, the most distinct subset of features in a dataset is identified using a Quick Reduct Feature Selection (QRFS) method to improve its classification performance; and, in the second, machine learning is used to train the quantum neural network to classify the risk. It is found that patients’ serial blood counts (their numbers of lymphocytes from days 1 to 15 after admission to hospital) are associated with relapse rates and evaluations of COVID-19 infections. Accordingly, the severity of COVID-19 is classified in two categories, serious and non-serious. The experimental results indicate that the proposed CQNN’s prediction approach outperforms those of other classification algorithms and its high accuracy confirms its effectiveness.     

Automatic Detection of COVID-19 Using a Stacked Denoising Convolutional Autoencoder

The exponential increase in new coronavirus disease 2019 ({COVID-19}) cases and deaths has made COVID-19 the leading cause of death in many countries. Thus, in this study, we propose an efficient technique for the automatic detection of COVID-19 and pneumonia based on X-ray images. A stacked denoising convolutional autoencoder (SDCA) model was proposed to classify X-ray images into three classes: normal, pneumonia, and {COVID-19}. The SDCA model was used to obtain a good representation of the input data and extract the relevant features from noisy images. The proposed model’s architecture mainly composed of eight autoencoders, which were fed to two dense layers and SoftMax classifiers. The proposed model was evaluated with 6356 images from the datasets from different sources. The experiments and evaluation of the proposed model were applied to an 80/20 training/validation split and for five cross-validation data splitting, respectively. The metrics used for the SDCA model were the classification accuracy, precision, sensitivity, and specificity for both schemes. Our results demonstrated the superiority of the proposed model in classifying X-ray images with high accuracy of 96.8%. Therefore, this model can help physicians accelerate COVID-19 diagnosis.     

Breast Cancer Detection in Saudi Arabian Women Using Hybrid Machine Learning on Mammographic Images

Breast cancer (BC) is the most common cause of women’s deaths worldwide. The mammography technique is the most important modality for the detection of BC. To detect abnormalities in mammographic images, the Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System (BI-RADs) is used as a baseline. The correct allocation of BI-RADs categories for mammographic images is always an interesting task, even for specialists. In this work, to detect and classify the mammogram images in BI-RADs, a novel hybrid model is presented using a convolutional neural network (CNN) with the integration of a support vector machine (SVM). The dataset used in this research was collected from different hospitals in the Qassim health cluster of Saudi Arabia. The collection of all categories of BI-RADs is one of the major contributions of this paper. Another significant contribution is the development of a hybrid approach through the integration of CNN and SVM. The proposed hybrid approach uses three CNN models to obtain ensemble CNN model results. This ensemble model saves the values to integrate them with SVM. The proposed system achieved a classification accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, precision, and F1-score of 93.6%, 94.8%, 96.9%, 96.6%, and 95.7%, respectively. The proposed model achieved better performance compared to previously available methods.     

A two‐stage neural network prediction of chronic kidney disease

Accurate detection of chronic kidney disease (CKD) plays a pivotal role in early diagnosis and treatment. Measured glomerular filtration rate (mGFR) is considered the benchmark indicator in measuring the kidney function. However, due to the high resource cost of measuring mGFR, it is usually approximated by the estimated glomerular filtration rate, underscoring an urgent need for more precise and stable approaches. With the introduction of novel machine learning methodologies, prediction performance is shown to be significantly improved across all available data, but the performance is still limited because of the lack of models in dealing with ultra‐high dimensional datasets. This study aims to provide a two‐stage neural network approach for prediction of GFR and to suggest some other useful biomarkers obtained from the blood metabolites in measuring GFR. It is a composite of feature shrinkage and neural network when the number of features is much larger than the number of training samples. The results show that the proposed method outperforms the existing ones, such as convolutionneural network and direct deep neural network.     

Modelling the Psychological Impact of COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia Using Machine Learning

This article aims to assess health habits, safety behaviors, and anxiety factors in the community during the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic in Saudi Arabia based on primary data collected through a questionnaire with 320 respondents. In other words, this paper aims to provide empirical insights into the correlation and the correspondence between socio-demographic factors (gender, nationality, age, citizenship factors, income, and education), and psycho-behavioral effects on individuals in response to the emergence of this new pandemic. To focus on the interaction between these variables and their effects, we suggest different methods of analysis, comprising regression trees and support vector machine regression (SVMR) algorithms. According to the regression tree results, the age variable plays a predominant role in health habits, safety behaviors, and anxiety. The health habit index, which focuses on the extent of behavioral change toward the commitment to use the health and protection methods, is highly affected by gender and age factors. The average monthly income is also a relevant factor but has contrasting effects during the COVID-19 pandemic period. The results of the SVMR model reveal a strong positive effect of income, with R² values of 99.59%, 99.93% and 99.88% corresponding to health habits, safety behaviors, and anxiety.     

Bayesian Rule Modeling for Interpretable Mortality Classification of COVID-19 Patients

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been termed a “Pandemic Disease” that has infected many people and caused many deaths on a nearly unprecedented level. As more people are infected each day, it continues to pose a serious threat to humanity worldwide. As a result, healthcare systems around the world are facing a shortage of medical space such as wards and sickbeds. In most cases, healthy people experience tolerable symptoms if they are infected. However, in other cases, patients may suffer severe symptoms and require treatment in an intensive care unit. Thus, hospitals should select patients who have a high risk of death and treat them first. To solve this problem, a number of models have been developed for mortality prediction. However, they lack interpretability and generalization. To prepare a model that addresses these issues, we proposed a COVID-19 mortality prediction model that could provide new insights. We identified blood factors that could affect the prediction of COVID-19 mortality. In particular, we focused on dependency reduction using partial correlation and mutual information. Next, we used the Class-Attribute Interdependency Maximization (CAIM) algorithm to bin continuous values. Then, we used Jensen Shannon Divergence (JSD) and Bayesian posterior probability to create less redundant and more accurate rules. We provided a ruleset with its own posterior probability as a result. The extracted rules are in the form of “if antecedent then results, posterior probability()”. If the sample matches the extracted rules, then the result is positive. The average AUC Score was 96.77% for the validation dataset and the F1-score was 92.8% for the test data. Compared to the results of previous studies, it shows good performance in terms of classification performance, generalization, and interpretability.