A simultaneous probit model of earnings, migration, job change with wage heterogeneity

In this study, earnings are decomposed in order to measure the effects due to individual characteristics and to unobserved heterogeneity. These effects are shown to work in opposite directions, complicating the effect of earnings on migration. The use of aggregate earnings masks the two separate effects. Those earning more because of productive characteristics are less likely to move. However, higher earnings due to other reasons that are more qualitative act as an impetus for migration. Job change is often part of the decision to migrate. In our analysis we recognize the endogeneity of job change in the migration equation and estimate it separately in the model. Job change is found to have a significantly positive influence on migration. Moreover, the separate estimation of job change brings out the important role of both explained and unexplained earnings on the decision to switch jobs, both factors decreasing the perceived necessity of changing jobs. Received: February 1997/Accepted: June 1998     

Decisions to move and decisions to stay: life course events and mobility outcomes

The decision to move is preceded by thinking about moving and then planning the move. Previous work has used varying measures of the intention to move to estimate models of what lies underneath the intention to move. That work has shown how family contexts, life course events, and economic resources play roles in forming the intention to move. This paper extends previous research in four ways. We use logistic regression models of moves conditional on an intention to move, we include measures of family structure specifically in the model, we estimate the role of satisfaction in the decision to move or stay, given an intention to move and we use a eleven-year panel data-set rather than cross-sectional data as in many studies. We confirm some of the findings of previous studies including the strong effects for life course events, but neither education nor income are predictors. We also show the role of a strong intention to move in the model. There are modest effects of higher levels of satisfaction with housing and community for those who did not intend to move. It is important to emphasize that this study while confirming some of the previous results reiterates that we need replication to complete and extend our understanding of these social processes.     

Self-selectivity problems in interregional and interindustry migration in Canada

This study is concerned with the role that inter-industry mobility plays in the decision to migrate in Canada, and also with the joint impact on earnings of inter-industry and interregional migration, corrected for selectivity bias. The data, for the period 1970-1971, are from a one percent random sample of a micro data base established by the Unemployment Insurance Commission. "Contrary to the commonly held belief that a migrant's decision to change his location is independent of his decision to change his industry of employment, this paper provides evidence that these movements are in fact interrelated."     

RURAL-URBAN MIGRATION AND SELF-SELECTION IN TUNISIA

This article presents a model of returns to rural-urban migration accounting for self-selection of migrants using survey data from Tunisia. Of particular interest in this research is the sign and significance of the selectivity terms in the mover and the stayer group. The model focuses on the importance of human capital investment incentives and personal characteristics. This article is organized as follows. Section 2 presents the Tunisian context. Section 3 describes a simple model of migrant behavior in which the decision to migrate, viewed in the context of investment in human capital, results as the solution to an optimal control problem. Section 4 provides details of a simultaneous equation model, which incorporates the decision to migrate, returns to migration, and self-selection. The results of the research lead to the conclusion that by purely statistical assessment the expected monetary gain effect is significantly different from zero. Although by economic considerations, it is small. This low effect is a result of the omission of other relevant variables from the analysis of rural-urban migration in Tunisia. In the migration-earning equations the selectivity variable is not significant, whereas there is a strong evidence of positive self-selection in the earnings of nonmigrants.     

An economic analysis of migration in Mexico

This paper analyzes internal migration in Mexico over the 1960–1970 period. A model of the determinants of migration is specified and estimated for aggregated interstate migration flows. The results show that distance serves as a significant deterrent to migration, that higher destination earlings levels are attractive to migrants, and that regions with high unemployment rates experience lower rates of in-migration. An unanticipated finding is that regions with higher earnings levels have greater rates of out-migration.The data are disaggregated to examine separate migration relationships for each state. The results are that distance is a lesser deterrent for those migrants with more accessible alternatives, that higher earnings levels reduce the deterring effects of distance, and that regions with higher earnings levels have lower associated elasticities of migration.It is concluded that economic factors have played a crucial role in internal migration and thus in the changing occupational and geographic structure of the Mexican labor force.This research was supported by Grant Number 1-RO-1-HD08567-01 from the Population and Reproduction Grants Branch, Center for Population Research, National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, United States Department of Health, Education, and Welfare. Part of this study was completed at the Food Research Institute, Stanford University, where J. R. Ladman was a Visiting Scholar. We are grateful to Barry Edmonston and Dudley Kirk for their helpful comments on an earlier draft of the paper. Responsibility for remaining shortcomings remains ours.     

Does migration function to reduce earnings differentials by race and gender?

Traditionally, studies of migration have focused on two functions of migration: first, as a means to redistribute society's labor force to its most efficient use and, second, at the level of the individual, as a human capital investment. This study investigates the role of migration in the determination of earnings differentials by race and gender. Microdata from the United Status Census are used to estimate earnings functions by race, gender, and migration status. Strong evidence is provided suggesting that unexplained portions of earnings differentials, reflecting wage discrimination and other unobserved heterogeneity, are substantially reduced for both race and gender through the process of interstate migration.I am grateful to Michael J. Greenwood, Janet M. Rives, and an anonymous referee for insightful comments.     

Beyond the trailing spouse: the commuter partnership as an alternative to family migration

Combining commitments in the domains of work, family, and residence has become a complex puzzle for the contemporary (dual-earner) family, especially when these choices concern family migration. For some families, non-standard alternatives to family migration, such as a commuter partnership in which one partner lives near work part of the time, might provide the best solution in matching both individual and family commitments. Through in-depth interviews with both partners in commuter partnerships, this paper explores the commitments that form the basis underlying the choice for a commuter partnership as an alternative to family migration or not migrating. It further describes how the balance in partners’ individual and their common interests, as well as the gender ideologies the couple holds, influence the choice for a commuter partnership. Our findings suggest that the commuter partnership is regarded as a suitable compromise between several commitments not only for partners who are both oriented towards their employment careers, but also for couples who have distinct commitments in their private lives. Partners in egalitarian partnerships were found to view the commuter partnership as a household arrangement that fitted their approach of reinforcing each other’s interests and commitments. For couples with non-symmetrical gender beliefs we found that in order for one (usually male) partner to pursue a choice biography through the commuter partnership, substantial sacrifices were demanded from the (usually female) spouse.

The role of age in the decision to migrate

The consistent negative relationship between migration frequency and age is consistently verified by empirical data, but theoretical explanations have been lacking. The purpose of this paper is to articulate a formal theoretical model that predicts this relationship. The model is not intended to completely describe the migration process but focuses only on the fundamentals of the decision. The argument can be summarized as follows: because work-life expectancy is a declining function of age of family head, the older individual has a shorter time period to capture a positive utility differential at an alternative location. This implies that the present value of the utility differential stream will also fall with age. As it is probable that moving costs are either constant or an increasing function of age, the probability that the present value of the utility stream will exceed moving costs will also decline. Thus, the migration rate, implicitly defined as the probability of migrating multiplied by the number of people in a given age cohort, will vary inversely with age.     

Impacts of small scale rainfall variability in urban areas: a case study with 1D and 1D/2D hydrological models in a multifractal framework

In this paper the sensitivity to small scale unmeasured rainfall variability (i.e. at scales smaller than 1 km by 1 km by 5 min in time, which are usually available with C-band radars) of a 1D/2D model with a 10 m resolution and a semi-distributed 1D model of the same 1.47 km² urban area is analyzed. The 1D/2D model is the open source numerical platform Multi-Hydro, which couples (open source) distributed models of involved hydrological/hydraulic processes. The methodology implemented to evaluate the uncertainties consists of generating an ensemble of realistic rainfall fields downscaled to a resolution of 12.3 m in space and 18.75 s in time with the help of a stochastic universal multifractal model. The corresponding ensemble of hydrographs is then simulated. It appears that the uncertainty is significant and that Multi-Hydro unveils much more uncertainty than the simpler 1D model. This points out a need to develop high resolution distributed modelling in urban areas.     

The effect of income taxes on interstate migration: an analysis by age and race

The topic of interstate migration and the effects of taxes on migration have been extensively studied. Prior research has examined not only many possible determinants of migration but also the migrations of various populations, including the elderly, African-Americans, and the college educated. The present study will attempt to differentiate itself from this prior research by looking at the effect of income taxes on the interstate migration of both whites and African-Americans at various ages. Another distinguishing feature of the present study is that it will use data from the NLSY-Geocode, a data set not used previously for this type of study. Results of the present study are similar to the results of prior works; income taxes have an effect on migration for most races and age groups. Individuals move from states with high income taxes to states with low income taxes; these results corroborate the results obtained from the use of aggregate, state-level data. In addition, results of the present study suggest that non-economic factors, such as ties to a particular state and changes in employment status, are also important factors in an individual’s migration decision.     

Home Dissolution: What Happens After Separation?

Building a home and creating a family are highly interconnected processes. So what happens to the home when people separate or divorce? This paper addresses this question using both a quantitative and a qualitative approach. Based on an extensive database with socio-economic background data of 42 000 separated Danish couples in 2002, the housing careers of both partners were followed to see how the housing situation of different types of people was affected by the separation. In the qualitative approach, nine interviews with couples who had parted shed light on the emotions and practical problems of dissolving a home: how to decide who should stay? Who should move? What was it like to stay alone in, or to leave, the matrimonial home?     

Considering,planning, and realizing migration in early adulthood. The influence of life-course events and perceived opportunities on leaving the city in Germany

Despite the common acknowledgement that migration is a process, the vast majority of empirical migration studies focus on actual moves without paying attention to the stages preceding them. We use an analytical framework in which the migration process is subdivided into a phase of decision-making, consisting of considering and planning the move, and another phase of realizing it. We investigate which part both life-course events and perceived opportunities play in each stage of the migration process for moves out of the city among young adults aged 18–29 years. The data come from a representative survey in two German cities (Magdeburg and Freiburg) and were gathered via a two-wave design in 2006 and 2007. Results from a generalized ordered logistic regression analysis of not considering, considering, or planning migration reveal that perceived opportunities and life-course events are important predictors of considering and planning migration, whereas beginning tertiary education and beginning a job are particularly important to entering the planning stage. Results from a binomial logistic regression of moving versus staying show that resources are particularly important for putting the decision in favor of migration into action.     

Independent and linked migration: Individual return of employment opportunity and household return of poverty status to African American interstate migration

The thrust of this study is to describe and contrast the determinants and outcomes of African-American interstate migration. We examine two types of migration outcomes – individual return to employment probability and household level return to poverty status. We investigate these motivations and outcomes based on a new typology of migration through the lens of household change that accompanies migration. We specify a pairwise two-stage probit model incorporating individual and state-level variables using Public Use Micro Sample data and various ecological data in the US. We show that independent migrants move to other states envisioning economic models of migration with migration as a derived response to opportunities, pressures, and constraints imposed by spatial inequalities in socioeconomic development. On the other hand, we demonstrate that linked migrants move to other states also for their economic need, but via kinship. In this case, the linked migrants' path does not follow the general pattern of economic circumstances. We show that household composition is an important factor that influences the destination choice for African Americans. While independent migrants are more concerned with diverse economic conditions at destinations, kinship, other ties and household structure at destinations are more significant factors for linked migrants. Received: June 2000/Accepted: June 2001     

Metropolitan migration and labor market changes by industry

The purpose of this paper is to analyze gross metropolitan migration of persons employed in selected two-digit industries. An empirically testable model was developed for migration, employment change, and earnings change and implemented using data from the Social Security Administration's ten percent Continuous Work History Sample. The results showed that a significant percentage of the migration flows can be explained by the variables in the model, and notes differences across industries. Specifically, differences in cyclic and structural economic variables are noted in terms of their importance across the specified industries. The public policy implications of these results are identified.Financial support from the Office of Policy and Planning, Employment and Training Administration, U.S. Department of Labor is gratefully acknowledged. However, any opinions are solely those of the author. The author would like to thank Michael Greenwood, Vernon Renshaw, and Burman Skrabble for several helpful comments. In addition, I would like to thank David Cartwright, Bruce Levine, Esther Schroeder, and Jim Woods for their valuable assistance with the data base.     

Alternative opportunities and migration: An exposition

This paper presents a simple migration model which traces the link between individual decision making and observed aggregate migration behavior. The model clarifies and demonstrates the role of alternative opportunities in aggregate migration behavior using both diagrammatical and mathematical presentations. It is shown that the definition of alternative opportunities does not necessarily depend on the distance between origin and destination.The author is indebted to Roger Norton for useful comments.     

SEGMENTATION OF HOUSEHOLDS AND RESIDENTIAL BEHAVIOUR

ABSTRACT Residential behaviour in a large Italian region is investigated focusing on tenants' judgement about their present condition and, if negative, the decision whether to move or stay. Housing needs and tastes, which explain residential mobility, are assumed to vary with households'characteristics. The paper suggests a specific procedure to find the relevant demand segments. A distinct logit model for each segment tries to explain satisfaction for current dwelling. For unsatisfied households, the propensity to move is modelled as a function of both level of dissatisfaction and factors expressing inertia.     

Do earnings by college major affect graduate migration?

College graduates are considerably more mobile than non-graduates, and previous literature suggests that the difference is at least partially attributable to college graduates being more responsive to employment opportunities in other areas. However, there exist considerable differences in migration rates by college major that have gone largely unexplained. This paper uses microdata from the American Community Survey to examine how the migration decisions of young college graduates are affected by earnings in their college major. Results indicate that higher major-specific earnings in an individual’s state of birth reduce out-migration suggesting that college graduates are attracted toward areas that especially reward the specific type of human capital that they possess.     

Does religious affiliation affect migration?

We test whether social networks at the origin, measured by religious affiliation, affect out‐migration. The basic idea is that a social capital loss is attached to the decision to out‐migrate, and said loss increases migration costs because benefits received from the local network at the origin disappear. To test this hypothesis, we estimated conditional and mixed logit models for the decision to out‐migrate. The results supported the hypothesis: members from religious organizations with strong intra‐community and weak intercommunity ties tended to out‐migrate less than others. This result was highly significant and robust to model specification and estimation methods.     

Regional cost-of-living differentials,rural–urban migration,and the contribution to economic growth

Using a multi-region, multi-sector dynamic model of an economy with rural–urban migration fit to Turkish data, this paper explores the evolution of each region's output and factor allocation as well as inter-regional disparities that emerge with migration. Migration or residence decision of households is endogenous with respect to regional cost-of-living differentials. Results show that migration slows down and dampens the shift of labour from urban manufacturing to services, despite the increase in demand for urban services. It is also established that rural–urban migration contributes positively to growth while the reallocation of labour within each region proves to be unfavourable.     

Firm relocation patterns incorporating spatial interactions

This paper developed a relocation pattern for analyzing decisions regarding the relocation process of individual firms by using discrete choice models. Within this framework, three decision points in the relocation process are maintained in the micro-simulation modeling. The first decision that is move or non-move is modeled by using a binary logit form with the outcome of the probability of moving. The second decision, choosing the destination region, is modeled as a multinomial logit model with the outcome of the conditional probability of choosing a region. The final decision, choosing the new zone, is estimated by considering the spatial interactions. For example, the correlation among firms in the deterministic term and the spatial correlation among zones in the error term are considered by mixed logit models. The results of the study indicated that large firms and older firms have a lower probability of relocation. Moreover, this research found out that migrating firms are more attracted in regions with high accessibility. Finally, spatial factors and land prices in a given zone strongly affect the zone choice decision-making process of all firms.