Logistic Regression Model for Evaluating Soil Liquefaction Probability Using CPT Data

A simple model for evaluating liquefaction probability using cone penetration test (CPT) data is developed based on logistic regression analyses of 396 case histories. The proposed model uses the normalized cone penetration resistance and soil behavior type index as input parameters; therefore, only CPT testing is necessary for evaluating the liquefaction probability of a site. The selection of the model parameters and the expression of equations are based on results of probability examinations and rigorous statistical analyses. Moreover, the derivation of the logistic regression model is presented in a system of equations. The incorporation of these procedures in developing the model not only fully satisfies the statistic requirements but also highlights the physical meanings of the model parameters. Comparisons of the proposed probability model with previously proposed deterministic and probabilistic approaches are performed to demonstrate the improvements. For practical purposes, the developed model is implemented to establish the relationship between the factor of safety against liquefaction and the probability of liquefaction.     

Mapping Liquefaction Potential Considering Spatial Correlations of CPT Measurements

The past studies of liquefaction phenomena during earthquakes have contributed to the development of simplified methods employing field test data to assess the liquefaction potential. Since the field data are limited by exploration cost, it is of interest to obtain valuable and meaningful distribution of liquefaction potential of an area from the limited data. This study proposes a method for assessing liquefaction potential over an extensive area according to the random field concept. The spatial structures of soil properties are estimated from the available cone penetration test (CPT) measurements. The soil properties at unsampled locations are simulated using Monte Carlo simulation. The reliability against liquefaction at every location within the study area is evaluated to map the liquefaction potential. The comparison between simulated distributions of liquefaction potential and observed liquefaction phenomena is discussed. The spatial correlation of soil property provides more information than the traditional approach that solely uses the field test data. The influences of CPT data, penetration locations, and spatial structures of soil properties on the mapping results of liquefaction potential are also discussed.     

CPT-Based Evaluation of Liquefaction and Lateral Spreading in Centrifuge

Two series of centrifuge model tests were conducted using Nevada sand. Four saturated models placed in a mildly inclined laminar box and simulating a 6-m-thick deposit were shaken inducing liquefaction effects and lateral spreading. The sand was deposited at a relative density, Dr = 45 or 75%; two of the 45% models were subjected to overconsolidation or preshaking. The second series involved in-flight measurements of static cone tip penetration resistance, qc, simulating the standard cone penetration test (CPT) 36-mm cone. Values of qc increased with Dr, overconsolidation, and preshaking. A normalized resistance, qc1N, was assigned to each of the four liquefaction/lateral spreading models. Increases in Dr, overconsolidation, and preshaking decreased liquefaction and ground deformation, but relative density alone captured these effects rather poorly. Conversely, qc1N predicted extremely well the liquefaction and lateral spreading response of the four models, confirming Seed’s hypothesis to explain the success of penetration-based seismic liquefaction charts. The depth to liquefaction measured in the four centrifuge models is consistent with the field CPT liquefaction chart.     

Simplified Cone Penetration Test-based Method for Evaluating Liquefaction Resistance of Soils

This paper presents a new simplified method for assessing the liquefaction resistance of soils based on the cone penetration test (CPT). A relatively large database consisting of CPT measurements and field liquefaction performance observations of historical earthquakes is analyzed. This database is first used to train an artificial neural network for predicting the occurrence and nonoccurrence of liquefaction based on soil and seismic load parameters. The successfully trained and tested neural network is then used to generate a set of artificial data points that collectively define the liquefaction boundary surface, the limit state function. An empirical equation is further obtained by regression analysis to approximate the unknown limit state function. The empirical equation developed represents a deterministic method for assessing liquefaction resistance using the CPT. Based on this newly developed deterministic method, probabilistic analyses of the cases in the database are conducted using the Bayesian mapping function approach. The results of the probabilistic analyses, expressed as a mapping function, provide a simple means for probability-based evaluation of the liquefaction potential. The newly developed simplified method compares favorably to a widely used existing method.     

Retesting of Liquefaction and Nonliquefaction Case Histories from the 1976 Tangshan Earthquake

A field investigation was performed to retest liquefaction and nonliquefaction sites from the 1976 Tangshan earthquake in China. These sites were carefully investigated in 1978 and 1979 by using standard penetration test (SPT) and cone penetration test (CPT) equipment; however, the CPT measurements are obsolete because of the now nonstandard cone that was used at the time. In 2007, a modern cone was mobilized to retest 18 selected sites that are particularly important because of the intense ground shaking they sustained despite their high fines content and/or because the site did not liquefy. Of the sites reinvestigated and carefully reprocessed, 13 were considered accurate representative case histories. Two of the sites that were originally investigated for liquefaction have been reinvestigated for cyclic failure of fine-grained soil and removed from consideration for liquefaction triggering. The most important outcome of these field investigations was the collection of more accurate data for three nonliquefaction sites that experienced intense ground shaking. Data for these three case histories is now included in an area of the liquefaction triggering database that was poorly populated and will help constrain the upper bound of future liquefaction triggering curves.     

First-Order Reliability Method for Probabilistic Liquefaction Triggering Analysis Using CPT

The potential for liquefaction triggering of a soil under a given seismic loading is measured herein by probability of liquefaction. The first order reliability method (FORM) is used to calculate reliability index, from which the probability of liquefaction is obtained. This approach requires the knowledge of parameter and model uncertainties; the latter is the focus of this paper. An empirical model for determining liquefaction resistance based on cone penetration test (CPT) is established through “neural network learning” of case histories. This resistance model along with a reference seismic loading model forms a performance function or limit state for liquefaction triggering analysis. Within the framework of the FORM, the uncertainty of this limit state model is characterized through an extensive series of sensitivity studies using Bayesian mapping functions that have been calibrated with a set of quality case histories. In addition, a deterministic model for assessing liquefaction potential in terms of factor of safety is presented, and the probability-safety factor mapping functions for estimating the probability of liquefaction for a given factor of safety in the absence of the knowledge of parameter uncertainty are also established. Examples are presented to illustrate the proposed methods.     

基于Fisher判别法模型的矿山安全标准化等级评价

为简化矿山安全标准化等级评价的内容和过程,真实反映矿山安全标准化的水平,从安全管理、安全培训、安全意识、安全行为、员工参与和安全绩效6个方面,结合矿山的实际情况,选取了18个因素作为等级评价的指标,建立基于Fisher判别分析（FDA）的矿山安全标准化等级评价模型。根据矿山的安全管理水平及运行过程中存在的问题和缺陷,将安全标准化等级分为4个等级。选取16组数据作为训练样本,采用判别函数进行回检,回判估计误判率为0,并对其余4组数据作为检验样本进行判别,判别率为100%。最后,利用该模型对5家金属矿山安全标准化的指标数据进行预测,预测结果与实际情况一致。研究结果表明：该模型在评价矿山安全标准化等级中可靠性高且判别准确。该评价模型为矿山安全标准化的建设提供了方向和途径,有利于矿山安全管理水平的提高。     

Liquefaction Potential Map of Charleston, South Carolina Based on the 1886 Earthquake

A liquefaction potential map of the peninsula of Charleston, S.C., is presented in this paper. Liquefaction potential is expressed in terms of the liquefaction potential index developed by Iwasaki et al. and calculated using 44 cone penetration test profiles. The cone profiles are supplemented with information from the 1:24,000 scale geologic map by Weems and Lemon, several first-hand accounts of liquefaction and ground deformation that occurred during the 1886 Charleston earthquake, and liquefaction probabilities determined by Elton and Hadj-Hamou based on standard penetration tests. Nearly all of the cases of liquefaction and ground deformation occurred in the Holocene to late Pleistocene beach deposits that flank the higher-ground sediments of the Wando Formation. To match the observed field behavior, a deposit resistance correction factor of 1.8 is applied to cyclic resistance ratios calculated for the 100,000-year-old Wando Formation. No corrections are needed for the younger deposits. In additional to 1886 field behavior, the deposit resistance corrections are supported by ratios of measured to predicted shear-wave velocity.     

Use of Artificial Neural Networks in the Prediction of Liquefaction Resistance of Sands

A backpropagation artificial neural network (ANN) model has been developed to predict the liquefaction cyclic resistance ratio (CRR) of sands using data from several laboratory studies involving undrained cyclic triaxial and cyclic simple shear testing. The model was verified using data that was not used for training as well as a set of independent data available from laboratory cyclic shear tests on another soil. The observed agreement between the predictions and the measured CRR values indicate that the model is capable of effectively capturing the liquefaction resistance of a number of sands under varying initial conditions. The predicted CRR values are mostly sensitive to the variations in relative density thus confirming the ability of the model to mimic the dominant dependence of liquefaction susceptibility on soil density already known from field and experimental observations. Although it is common to use mechanics-based approaches to understand fundamental soil response, the results clearly demonstrate that non-mechanistic ANN modeling also has a strong potential in the prediction of complex phenomena such as liquefaction resistance.     

Random Field Modeling of CPT Data

An extensive set of cone penetration tests (CPT) soundings are analyzed statistically to produce an a priori 1D stochastic soil model for use at other similar sites. The data were collected by the Norwegian Geotechnical Institute at the site of a new airport just north of Oslo, Norway, and consists of 143 CPT soundings over an area of about 18 km2 in a reasonably homogeneous soil mass. The CPT data consist of cone tip resistance, side friction, and pore-water pressure measurements. Only the cone tip resistance is considered in this study, it being considered closest to a “point” property of the soil, and only the vertical variation is characterized. To perform the statistical analysis, the data sets are viewed as independent 1D realizations extracted from a statistically homogeneous 3D random field. Plots of various transformations of the data indicate that the cone tip resistance records are best represented using a fractal stochastic model corresponding to so-called fractional Brownian motion, and its parameters are estimated via maximum likelihood.     

Coupled Use of Cone Tip Resistance and Small Strain Shear Modulus to Assess Liquefaction Potential

Resistance against earthquake-related liquefaction is usually assessed using relationships between an index of soil strength such as normalized cone tip resistance and the cyclic resistance ratio (CRR) developed from observed field performance. The alternative approach based on laboratory testing is rarely used, mainly because of the apprehension that laboratory results may not reflect field behavior since the quality of laboratory data is often compromised by sampling disturbance. In this study, a database of laboratory data obtained mainly from cyclic testing of frozen (undisturbed) samples and in situ index measurements from near sampling locations comprised of cone tip resistance, qc, and shear wave velocity, Vs, have been assembled. These data indicate that neither normalized cone tip resistance nor normalized shear wave velocity individually correlate well with laboratory-measured CRR. However, the ratio of qc to the small strain shear modulus, G0, relates reasonably with CRR via separate correlations depending on geologic age. The derived qc/G0-CRR relationships were also found to be consistent with earthquake field-performance case histories.     

CPT-Based Probabilistic and Deterministic Assessment of In Situ Seismic Soil Liquefaction Potential

This paper presents a complete methodology for both probabilistic and deterministic assessment of seismic soil liquefaction triggering potential based on the cone penetration test (CPT). A comprehensive worldwide set of CPT-based liquefaction field case histories were compiled and back analyzed, and the data then used to develop probabilistic triggering correlations. Issues investigated in this study include improved normalization of CPT resistance measurements for the influence of effective overburden stress, and adjustment to CPT tip resistance for the potential influence of “thin” liquefiable layers. The effects of soil type and soil character (i.e., “fines” adjustment) for the new correlations are based on a combination of CPT tip and sleeve resistance. To quantify probability for performance-based engineering applications, Bayesian “regression” methods were used, and the uncertainties of all variables comprising both the seismic demand and the liquefaction resistance were estimated and included in the analysis. The resulting correlations were developed using a Bayesian framework and are presented in both probabilistic and deterministic formats. The results are compared to previous probabilistic and deterministic correlations.     

Objective Site Characterization Using Clustering of Piezocone Data

Cluster analysis is a statistical method for grouping similar mathematical data sets and is used herein for delineating geostratigraphy from piezocone penetration test data. In terms of site characterization, clustering is an improvement over other statistical methods because no preliminary estimation of the inherent groups within the analyzed data is needed, and no overlapping is permitted between identified clusters. Clustering can accommodate single or multivariables and no data filtering is required. Its application to defining stratigraphic interfaces is illustrated using five case studies with layered profiles. Clustering is able to detect major changes within the stratigraphy not apparent by visually examining the trends of piezocone data or by available cone soil classification methods.     

Cyclic Behavior and Liquefaction of Sand Using Disturbed State Concept

A general constitutive modeling concept called the disturbed state concept (DSC) is developed in this research for the stress-strain and liquefaction behavior of saturated sands. The DSC model is a unified approach and allows hierarchical modeling for options like elastic and elastoplastic responses, microcracking, damage, and softening. The DSC model parameters for saturated Ottawa sand are evaluated using data from multiaxial tests. The model predictions are found to provide satisfactory correlations with the test results. The DSC model with the foregoing parameters is implemented in a nonlinear dynamic finite-element program (DSC-DYN2D). It is used to solve a typical boundary value problem—a shake table test—involving liquefaction behavior. Based on the results, it can be stated that the DSC model is capable of both characterizing the cyclic behavior of saturated sands and identification of liquefaction.     

Accounting for Soil Aging When Assessing Liquefaction Potential

It has been recognized that liquefaction resistance of sand increases with age due to processes such as cementation at particle contacts and increasing frictional resistance resulting from particle rearrangement and interlocking. As such, the currently available empirical correlations derived from liquefaction of young Holocene sand deposits, and used to determine liquefaction resistance of sand deposits from in situ soil indices [standard penetration test (SPT), cone penetration test (CPT), shear wave velocity test (Vs)], are not applicable for old sand deposits. To overcome this limitation, a methodology was developed to account for the effect of aging on the liquefaction resistance of old sand deposits. The methodology is based upon the currently existing empirical boundary curves for Holocene age soils and utilizes correction factors presented in the literature that comprise the effect of aging on the in situ soil indices as well as on the field cyclic strength (CRR). This paper describes how to combine currently recorded SPT, CPT, and Vs values with corresponding CRR values derived for aged soil deposits to generate new empirical boundary curves for aged soils. The method is illustrated using existing geotechnical data from four sites in the South Carolina Coastal Plain (SCCP) where sand boils associated with prehistoric earthquakes have been found. These sites involve sand deposits that are 200,000?to?450,000?years in age. This work shows that accounting for aging of soils in the SCCP yields less conservative results regarding the current liquefaction potential than when age is not considered. The modified boundary curves indicate that old sand deposits are more resistant to liquefaction than indicated by the existing empirical curves and can be used to evaluate the liquefaction potential at a specific site directly from the current in situ properties of the soil.     

Yield Strength Ratio and Liquefaction Analysis of Slopes and Embankments

A procedure is proposed to evaluate the triggering of liquefaction in ground subjected to a static shear stress, i.e., sloping ground, using the yield strength ratio, su(yield)/σv0′. Thirty liquefaction flow failures were back analyzed to evaluate shear strengths and strength ratios mobilized at the triggering of liquefaction. Strength ratios mobilized during the static liquefaction flow failures ranged from approximately 0.24 to 0.30 and are correlated to corrected cone and standard penetration resistances. These yield strength ratios and previously published liquefied strength ratios are used to develop a comprehensive liquefaction analysis for ground subjected to a static shear stress. This analysis addresses: (1) liquefaction susceptibility; (2) liquefaction triggering; and (3) post-triggering/flow failure stability. In particular, step (2) uses the yield strength ratio back-calculated from flow failure case histories and the cyclic stress method to incorporate seismic loading.     

Evaluation of Flow Liquefaction and Liquefied Strength Using the Cone Penetration Test

Flow liquefaction is a major design issue for large soil structures such as mine tailings impoundments and earth dams. If a soil is strain softening in undrained shear and, hence, susceptible to flow liquefaction, an estimate of the resulting liquefied shear strength is required for stability analyses. Many procedures have been published for estimating the residual or liquefied shear strength of cohesionless soils. This paper presents cone penetration test-based relationships to evaluate the susceptibility to strength loss and liquefied shear strength for a wide range of soils. Case-history analyses by a number of investigators are reviewed and used with some additional case histories. Extrapolations beyond the case-history data are guided by laboratory studies and theory.     

Cyclic Testing and Constitutive Modeling of Saturated Sand–Concrete Interfaces Using the Disturbed State Concept

A constitutive model based on the disturbed state concept (DSC) is proposed for stress-deformation and liquefaction response of interfaces in dynamic soil-structure interaction problems. The model parameters are determined by using comprehensive test data for Ottawa sand–concrete (medium roughness) interfaces by using the cyclic multidegree of freedom device. The model is validated by comparing the finite element predictions with the test data used for the determination of parameters and independent test not used for finding the parameters. A procedure based on the critical disturbance for the identification of liquefaction in the interfaces is proposed. It is found that the liquefaction in the interface can occur earlier than that in the surrounding sand. The DSC model can provide a realistic characterization of the interface behavior and can be used in analysis and design of dynamic soil-structure interaction problems.     

Estimating Liquefaction-Induced Lateral Displacements Using the Standard Penetration Test or Cone Penetration Test

A semiempirical approach to estimate liquefaction-induced lateral displacements using standard penetration test (SPT) or cone penetration test (CPT) data is presented. The approach combines available SPT- and CPT-based methods to evaluate liquefaction potential with laboratory test results for clean sands to estimate the potential maximum cyclic shear strains for saturated sandy soils under seismic loading. A lateral displacement index is then introduced, which is obtained by integrating the maximum cyclic shear strains with depth. Empirical correlations from case history data are proposed between actual lateral displacement, the lateral displacement index, and geometric parameters characterizing ground geometry for gently sloping ground without a free face, level ground with a free face, and gently sloping ground with a free face. The proposed approach can be applied to obtain preliminary estimates of the magnitude of lateral displacements associated with a liquefaction-induced lateral spread.     

Does age play a role in structure of anxiety and depression in children and youths? An investigation of the tripartite model in three age cohorts.

Although previous studies provide some support for a tripartite model of relations between anxiety and depression in children, there is evidence to suggest that anxiety and depression may be increasingly differentiated over development. Using a confirmatory factor analytic strategy with rationally selected item sets from the Revised Children's Manifest Anxiety Scale and the Children's Depression Inventory, the current study sought to test unitary, dual. and tripartite models for anxiety and depression in a cross-sectional design using 3 narrow-band age cohorts of nonreferred children and youths. The results found little evidence of increasing differentiation. All models provided a moderate fit to the data, with some evidence that a correlated 3-factor model was the preferred model in all age cohorts. Further research is required to explore the discriminant validity and clinical utility of the tripartite dimensions in childhood populations. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)