Analytic Cognitive Task Allocation: a decision model for cognitive task allocation

This paper introduces Analytic Cognitive Task Allocation (Analytic CTA) as a decision model for cognitive task allocation. Analytic CTA can support system designers systematically analyse alternative allocation choices, evaluate them through criterion-based quantitative judgements and integrate partial judgements towards a final allocation decision. Analytic CTA was applied in the design of cognitive task allocation by testing three hypotheses. The hypotheses postulated that Analytic CTA can effectively support system designers in three ways: (a) in the identification of task requirements; (b) in the definition of design trade-offs between human allocation and automation; and (c) in the derivation of the allocation decision. Two groups of system designers allocated cognitive functions from three task scenarios in production planning and control. The experimental group, which was supported by the decision model, made allocation decisions which expressed weak preference for either human allocation or automation, consistent with the experimental tasks which had been selected as to elicit weak preferences. The control group relied on the early selection of an automation technology as the means of structuring the design problem. This involved reducing the task to a version suitable for automation, introduced a pro-automation bias and resulted in allocation decisions expressing strong preference for automation. These results were found in support of the experimental hypotheses.     

Effects of feedback lag variability on the choice of an automated diagnostic aid: A preliminary predictive model

This paper outlines the Signal Detection Model of Choice (SDMC) that predicts operators' use of automated diagnostic aids based on system feedback lag characteristics. Specifically, the SDMC predicts that users will prefer an aid having variable rather than fixed feedback lag characteristics when the value of correct decisions (hits and correct rejections) are large relative to the negative consequences of incorrect decisions (misses and false alarms). A preference reversal is predicted by the model when the positive consequences of correct decisions are small relative to the negative consequences of wrong decisions. Furthermore, this pattern of choice is predicted even when aids are not equally reliable. Theoretical explanations of the possible cognitive processes that underlie the model, including temporal and reliability distortion theories are presented. Results from recent laboratory experiments that provide preliminary support for the model's predictions and theoretical assumptions are summarized. The bridge that this new model provides between traditional behavioural models of choice and cognitive models of decision-making are also discussed. The hope is that the SDMC will provide fruitful avenues of inquiry into the relatively unexplored effects that automation feedback lag has on choice and decision making processes.     

A Decision Impact Model

ABSTRACT

Current and forecasted world economic trends call for an examination of traditional management organizational behavior. Changes in organizational behavior require a downward decision-making responsibility transfer. An examination of human motivational theories and experimental data provides insight into this needed decision transfer.

A decision impact model of current operational management trends is presented. The model shows the necessity for streamlining the traditional organization in an effort to accommodate rapidly changing technology and increase organizational competitiveness. An investigation of decision transfer is also presented.     

Understanding reliance on automation: effects of error type,error distribution,age and experience

An obstacle detection task supported by ‘imperfect’ automation was used with the goal of understanding the effects of automation error types and age on automation reliance. Sixty younger and sixty older adults interacted with a multi-task simulation of an agricultural vehicle (i.e. a virtual harvesting combine). The simulator included an obstacle detection task and a fully manual tracking task. A micro-level analysis provided insight into the way reliance patterns change over time. The results indicated that there are distinct patterns of reliance that develop as a function of error type. A prevalence of automation false alarms led participants to under-rely on the automation during alarm states while over-relying on it during non-alarm states. Conversely, a prevalence of automation misses led participants to over-rely on automated alarms and under-rely on the automation during non-alarm states. Older adults adjusted their behaviour according to the characteristics of the automation similar to younger adults, although it took them longer to do so. The results of this study suggest that the relationship between automation reliability and reliance depends on the prevalence of specific errors and on the state of the system. Understanding the effects of automation detection criterion settings on human–automation interaction can help designers of automated systems to make predictions about human behaviour and system performance as a function of the characteristics of the automation.     

Military (in)decision-making process: a psychological framework to examine decision inertia in military operations

Abstract

When understanding how members of the armed forces make decisions in war current military doctrine centers on the military decision-making process (MDMP) – a linear process of identifying, evaluating and choosing the best course of action, while wider theoretical contributions focus on recognition prime models (RPD) of decision-making. In this article, we argue that the SAFE-T model of critical incident decision-making can elucidate the process of decision-making during military operations. The SAFE-T model states that effective decision-making follows a sequential process of situation assessment (SA), plan formulation (F) and plan execution (E) phases, and team learning (T). The central innovation of the SAFE-T model; however, is that it highlights the different ways in which decision-making can de-rail from this optimal strategy, resulting in decision inertia. This article discusses the implications of employing the SAFE-T model as a framework to study military decision-making both in the lab and in the field.     

Testing Information Order Effects in a Long Series of Evidence

Abstract:

This research investigates order effects in a long evidence series in a decision-making context. The article provides an application to practicing engineering managers, a detailed explanation of the belief revision model, extensions, competing theories, implications, and experimental findings. The belief revision model was tested in a long series context and found a significant recency effect, contrary to model predictions. The results suggest that the current belief revision model does not account for sequential manipulations, which affect mental effort. We recommend further investigation into the impact of mental effort and discuss the challenges that engineering managers face when trying to build knowledge to make decisions in information intensive environments.     

EXPERIMENTAL AND NUMERICAL STUDY OF THE PARTICLE FLUCTUATING MOTION INDUCED BY COLLISIONS BETWEEN PARTICLES IN A VERTICAL GAS-SOLID FLOW

ABSTRACT

The effect of interparticle collisions on the gravitational motion of large particles in a vertical convergent channel is experimentally and numerically investigated. A probabilistic collision model is implemented in a three-dimensional Monte Carlo type Lagrangian simulation code. The numerical predictions are compared to the experimental results. It is shown that an interparticle collision model is necessary to reproduce the experimentally observed particle fluctuating motion characteristics. The simulation results using the present probabilistic collision model are found to yield satisfactory agreement with experimental observations, even though the collision frequency seems to be slightly overestimated. In particular, reduction of initial anisotropy of the particle fluctuating motion with increasing particulate mass flow rate is well reproduced by the simulation. A rather good agreement is also observed between experimental results and quantitative predictions of statistical properties of the flow such as particle axial and transverse velocity distributions and standard deviations.     

Automation cueing modulates cerebral blood flow and vigilance in a simulated air traffic control task

Automation cueing of impending hazards or critical signals can have both beneficial and deleterious effects on the human operator, depending on automation reliability. To assess these effects, transcranial Doppler sonography (TCD), a low-cost non-invasive procedure that allows continuous monitoring of blood flow in the left and right cerebral hemispheres, was used to examine the influence of automation cues of varying reliability on vigilance performance in a 40-min simulated air traffic control task. Four levels of automation cue reliability (100, 80 and 40% reliable cueing and a no-cue control) were combined factorially with two levels of critical signal salience (high and low). For both levels of signal salience, the detection rate of critical signals was very high and remained stable over time with 100% cue-reliability, but declined over time in the remaining cue conditions, so that, by the end of the task, performance efficiency was best in the 100% condition followed in order by the 80%, 40%, and no-cue conditions. These performance effects for cueing were very closely mirrored by changes in cerebral blood flow in the right (but not the left) hemisphere in conjunction with low salience signals. The results fit well with an attentional resource model of vigilance and show that cerebral blood flow provides a metabolic index of the utilization of information-processing resources during sustained attention. The demonstration of systematic modulation of cerebral blood flow with time on task, automation cueing and signal salience also provides strong evidence for a right hemispheric brain system that is involved in the functional control of vigilance performance over time. Measurement of the activation of this system, as a reflection of operator mental workload, can, therefore, inform the design of optimal automation cueing.     

A robust optimization approach to overall profit efficiency with data uncertainty: application on bank industry

In this paper, we consider a framework of data envelopment analysis (DEA) to measure the overall profit efficiency of decision-making units (DMUs) subject to inputs and outputs uncertainty. Under uncertain conditions, classic methods can lead to unrealistic solutions in practice. In this work, robust optimization is proposed to incorporate uncertainty into measuring the overall profit efficiency. In a robust optimization model, it is supposed that uncertain parameters belong to a specified set with a solution that is efficient for all possible uncertainty outcomes while it is not optimal for a given value of the parameters. We show that the overall profit efficiency score may not always occur in an optimistic case and the decision maker can obtain the overall profit efficiency score corresponding to a value in the uncertainty set. The results of the experiment on bank data show that a robust overall profit efficiency score provides a significant improvement in the performance, as the uncertainty increases.

Abbreviations: DEA: data envelopment analysis; DMUs: decision-making units; CRS: constant returns to scale; VRS: variable returns to scale; ROP: robust optimization problem; RC: robust counterpart; ROPE: robust overall profit efficiency; OOPE: optimistic overall profit efficiency; GAMS: generalized algebraic modeling system     

Approximation of fluctuating pressure cross-spectra of dome-like roofs under turbulent flow

ABSTRACT

Large span roof structures have been widely adopted for their good performance in multiple functionalities and innovative designs. However, because of their light weight, wind-resistant design is more urgent than earthquake-resistant design. And further, their long span geometry often results in a weak spatial correlation in pressure distributions and hence makes the estimation of wind loads a difficult task. Spectrum characteristics of wind pressures have been mentioned in several publications; however, there is still little discussion of cross-spectrum characteristics. In this paper, cross-spectra of fluctuating wind pressures on various dome-like roofs are investigated under a suburban terrain flow. By examining separately the root-coherence function and the phase function, approximation models of both functions are proposed in terms of the rise/span ratio based on certain simple but efficient assumptions. Once the two functions are simulated in good agreement with experimental results, the cross-spectra, or the co-coherence function, can be simulated by simply combining the root-coherence function and the phase function.     

原子频标频率漂移率测试系统

针对铷原子频标的日漂移率的测试需求,采用时差法设计日频率漂移率检测装置。该装置通过多路分频器,将被测频标1 MHz、5 MHz、10 MHz信号分频为标准1PPS信号。GPIB接口控制时间间隔计数器测量时差数据并传输给计算机,计算测量结果。装置自动化程度高、工作稳定,实现对多台铷原子频标日频率漂移率的自动化测量。     

Polarimetric investigation of materials with both linear and circular anisotropy

Abstract

We investigate light propagation through materials with both linear and circular anisotropy and find the relation of the amplitude and polarization transfer functions to the four anisotropic characteristics: linear circular birefringence, and linear and circular dichroism. We determine these four characteristics of anisotropic samples by measuring the output intensity and polarization corresponding to different input polarization azimuths and fitting the theoretical and experimental results. In our experiments we have used films of side-chain azobenzene polyesters in which optical anisotropy had been previously induced on illumination with elliptically polarized light.     

Driving aviation forward; contrasting driving automation and aviation automation

ABSTRACT

Technological solutions incorporating automated functionality have been seen as tools that can be used to reduce human error in both aviation and driving environments whilst bringing about improvements to operational safety and reduced accident rates. Historically, aviation has led the way, but over recent years, developments in the field of driving automation have accelerated rapidly. This paper looks more closely at what aviation may now learn from driving by assessing the underlying motivations and use of automation within their respective fields, as well as the differing design philosophies used to implement such systems.     

Modelling correlation between hot working parameters and flow stress of IN625 alloy using neural network

Abstract

In this work, an optimum multilayer perceptron neural network is developed to model the correlation between hot working parameters (temperature, strain rate and strain) and flow stress of IN625 alloy. Three variations of standard back propagation algorithm (Broyden, Fletcher, Goldfarb and Shanno quasi-Newton, Levenberg–Marquardt and Bayesian) are applied to train the model. The results show that, in this case, the best performance, minimum error and shortest converging time are achieved by the Levenberg–Marquardt training algorithm. Comparing the predicted values and the experimental values reveals that a well trained network is capable of accurately calculating the flow stress of the alloy as a function of the processing parameters. Sensitivity analysis revealed that temperature has the largest effect on the flow stress of the alloy being in good agreement with the metallurgical fundamentals.     

A Decision-Information-Synchronisation perspective on the performance of FMS

The performance of a Flexible Manufacturing System (FMS) largely depends on how the control system can control the flow of entities in the system. The control system takes control decisions based on the information provided as an input to the decision-making process. Therefore, it is important that the decision-making process and information systems operate in a synchronised manner with respect to the FMS characteristics. This can also be referred to as a Decision-Information-Synchronisation (DIS) operating zone implemented in the control system. To study the DIS in the present research, three types of visibility for decision-makers in FMS shop-floor control have been identified: (1) no local visibility, (2) physical local visibility and (3) physical and information local visibility of decision-maker/operator. These alternative visibilities and automation levels of decision and information system provide the hybrid environments of FMSs control. The current paper presents an approach to identify the DIS operating zone of FMS with suitable visibility of decision-maker and automation level. Simulation results show that under non-real-time control (low automation level in decision and information system) with physical local visibility, the FMS system performs comparable with the real-time control (high automation level in decision and information system) when routing flexibility levels are presented. Under the current global competitive environment, this study helps industrial managers determine a suitable level of visibility and automation in planning an FMS control system in order to obtain the desired performance at the lower cost.     

风险规避型航空联盟的收益共享机制研究

构建了由2个风险规避的航空公司组成的航空联盟网络的决策模型,并利用均值-标准差(mean standard deviation)风险度量准则建立了航空联盟成员的决策目标函数。首先,分析了航空联盟网络在集中决策下的均衡模型。研究发现航空公司的风险规避特性将会降低机票价格,进而减少联盟整体的效用。其次,研究了航空联盟实施收益共享机制下的分散决策模型,研究结果表明收益共享机制不仅可以实现联盟成员个人的效用最大化,同时可以达到联盟整体效用的最大化。研究还发现,实施收益共享机制可以提高航空联盟成员的绩效水平。绩效水平提升的幅度与价格弹性系数、国内与国际航线的运作成本的比值、航空公司的风险规避度及收益共享系数等因素密切相关。此外,通过数值分析研究了不同参数对航空联盟成员实施收益共享机制后提升的绩效水平的影响程度。     

Optimal design and performance evaluation of a metal fiber filter for capturing radioactive aerosols

ABSTRACT

Conventional high-efficiency particulate air (HEPA) filters made of glass fiber media are prone to recycling problem and restrictions in extreme environmental condition such as high flow rate, high temperature, and fire. Therefore, metal fiber filters with minimal maintenance can replace conventional HEPA filters. The objective of the study is to evaluate the theoretical and experimental characteristics of a SUS316L metal fiber filter made from the fiber diameter of 8 µm. Theoretical modeling for predicting the collection efficiency of the radioactive aerosol is performed on the metal fiber as a function of particle size, filter thickness, and flow rate. Comparison between the experimental and theoretical results demonstrates that they are in good agreement. Consequently, the model is later utilized for performance optimization of the metal fiber filter. Also the metal filter for collecting the radioactive aerosol is optimized at the particle collection efficiency of 99.97% in most penetrating particle size (MPPS) of region 0.3 µm which complies with the standards established for conventional glass fiber HEPA filters.     

Numerical study of the remittances of axially excited chiral sculptured zirconia thin films

The transmission and reflection spectra from a right-handed chiral sculptured zirconia thin film are calculated using the coupled wave theory and the Bruggeman homogenization formalism in conjunction with the experimental data for the relative dielectric constant of zirconia thin film. The dielectric dispersion function effect on these spectra appeared in wavelengths shorter than the Bragg wavelength. In wavelengths larger than the Bragg wavelength, the dispersion of the dielectric function can be ignored. The results achieved in this work are consistent with the experimental data [Wu, Q.; Hodgkinson, I.J.; Lakhtakia, A. Opt. Eng. 2000, 39, 1863]. A shift towards shorter wavelengths is observed for the Bragg peak with increasing void fraction, which is in agreement with the theoretical work of Lakhtakia [Microw. Opt. Technol. Lett. 2000, 24, 239]. Sorge et al. [Opt. Express 2006, 14, 10550] also found this effect in their experimental results on TiO₂ chiral thin films, while they also found that unlike our results the intensity of the reflectance of the Bragg peak decreases with increasing void fraction. This difference between our theoretical work and Sorge et al.'s experimental work can be related to the structural difference between the idealized theoretical model for chiral films and that obtained in experimental work. In the latter, as Sorge et al. have pointed out the experimental films exhibit a large amount of scattering due to the highly complex and non-ideal structure that the individual chiral elements exhibit.     

Elastic properties of eta carbide (η-Fe2C) from ab initio calculations: application to cryogenically treated gear steel

The elastic properties of $\eta\hbox{-Fe}_2\hbox{C}$ (eta carbide) have been determined from ab initio density functional theory calculations using the generalized gradient approximation. The isotropic polycrystalline elastic modulus of $\eta\hbox{-Fe}_2\hbox{C}$ has been calculated as the average of anisotropic single-crystal elastic constants determined from the ab initio simulations. The calculated polycrystalline elastic modulus was used to compute the elastic modulus of a case carburised gear steel subjected to shallow cryogenic treatment (SCT) and deep cryogenic treatment (DCT). This value was then compared with experimental values obtained from nanoindentation. The results confirmed that the changes in elastic modulus observed in the DCT steel can be attributed to the precipitation of $\eta\hbox{-Fe}_2\hbox{C}$ . No changes in hardness have been observed between the SCT steel and the DCT steel. These data were then used to assess the surface contact fatigue behaviour of the SCT and DCT steels tested under elastohydrodynamic lubrication conditions.