Emissions reduction scenarios in the Argentinean Energy Sector

In this paper the LEAP, TIAM-ECN, and GCAM models were applied to evaluate the impact of a variety of climate change control policies (including carbon pricing and emission constraints relative to a base year) on primary energy consumption, final energy consumption, electricity sector development, and CO₂ emission savings of the energy sector in Argentina over the 2010–2050 period. The LEAP model results indicate that if Argentina fully implements the most feasible mitigation measures currently under consideration by official bodies and key academic institutions on energy supply and demand, such as the ProBiomass program, a cumulative incremental economic cost of 22.8 billion US$(2005) to 2050 is expected, resulting in a 16% reduction in GHG emissions compared to a business-as-usual scenario. These measures also bring economic co-benefits, such as a reduction of energy imports improving the balance of trade. A Low CO₂ price scenario in LEAP results in the replacement of coal by nuclear and wind energy in electricity expansion. A High CO₂ price leverages additional investments in hydropower. By way of cross-model comparison with the TIAM-ECN and GCAM global integrated assessment models, significant variation in projected emissions reductions in the carbon price scenarios was observed, which illustrates the inherent uncertainties associated with such long-term projections. These models predict approximately 37% and 94% reductions under the High CO₂ price scenario, respectively. By comparison, the LEAP model, using an approach based on the assessment of a limited set of mitigation options, predicts an 11.3% reduction. The main reasons for this difference include varying assumptions about technology cost and availability, CO₂ storage capacity, and the ability to import bioenergy. An emission cap scenario (2050 emissions 20% lower than 2010 emissions) is feasible by including such measures as CCS and Bio CCS, but at a significant cost. In terms of technology pathways, the models agree that fossil fuels, in particular natural gas, will remain an important part of the electricity mix in the core baseline scenario. According to the models there is agreement that the introduction of a carbon price will lead to a decline in absolute and relative shares of aggregate fossil fuel generation. However, predictions vary as to the extent to which coal, nuclear and renewable energy play a role.     

China's energy-water nexus – assessment of the energy sector's compliance with the “3 Red Lines” industrial water policy

Increasing population and economic growth continue to drive China's demand for energy and water resources. The interaction of these resources is particularly important in China, where water resources are unevenly distributed, with limited availability in coal-rich regions. The “3 Red Lines” water policies were introduced in 2011; one of their aims is to reduce industrial water use, of which the energy sector is a part. This paper analyses current water withdrawals and consumption for all energy processes and assesses the sector's compliance with the industrial water policy under different scenarios, considering potential future policy and technological changes. The results show that future energy plans could conflict with the industrial water policy, but the amount of water used in the energy sector is highly dependant on technology choices, especially for power plant cooling. High electricity demand in the future is expected to be met mainly by coal and nuclear power, and planned inland development of nuclear power presents a new source of freshwater demand. Taking a holistic view of energy and water-for-energy enables the identification of co-benefits and trade-offs between energy and water policies that can facilitate the development of more compatible and sustainable energy and water plans.     

Long-term strategies for an efficient use of domestic biomass resources in Austria

In this study, long-term perspectives for the Austrian bioenergy sector are analyzed. The focus is on the achievable contribution of biomass to the heat, electricity and transport fuel supply as well as to the total primary energy supply under different framework conditions. Also, the achievable GHG mitigation and the costs related to GHG reduction are assessed.The analyses are based on scenarios which are compiled with the simulation model Green-X_Bio-Austria. Within this model a myopic optimization of the bioenergy sector with regard to energy generation costs up to 2050 in eleven scenarios is carried out. The scenarios differ in the following aspects: the projections for fuel price development and for the energy demand as well as bioenergy policy measures assumed.The major conclusions are: With respect to greenhouse gas emission reduction and economic efficiency, the simulations make clear that bioenergy policies should focus on the promotion of heat an – to some extent – combined heat and power generation. A focus on liquid biofuels for transport has adverse effects on the development of the bioenergy sector due to increased competition for limited biomass resources. For significantly increasing the share of biomass in the Austrian energy supply, it is crucial to both subsidize bioenergy and reduce the overall energy consumption. In the case of highly increasing fossil fuel prices, the economics of bioenergy systems will improve significantly.     

Oil and natural gas prices and greenhouse gas emission mitigation

The hikes in hydrocarbon prices during the last years have lead to concern about investment choices in the energy system and uncertainty about the costs for mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions. On the one hand, high prices of oil and natural gas increase the use of coal; on the other hand, the cost difference between fossil-based energy and non-carbon energy options decreases. We use the global energy model TIMER to explore the energy system impacts of exogenously forced low, medium and high hydrocarbon price scenarios, with and without climate policy. We find that without climate policy high hydrocarbon prices drive electricity production from natural gas to coal. In the transport sector, high hydrocarbon prices lead to the introduction of alternative fuels, especially biofuels and coal-based hydrogen. This leads to increased emissions of CO₂. With climate policy, high hydrocarbon prices cause a shift in electricity production from a dominant position of natural gas with carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) to coal-with-CCS, nuclear and wind. In the transport sector, the introduction of hydrogen opens up the possibility of CCS, leading to a higher mitigation potential at the same costs. In a more dynamic simulation of carbon price and oil price interaction the effects might be dampened somewhat.     

A scenario analysis of investment options for the Cuban power sector using the MARKAL model

The Cuban power sector faces a need for extensive investment in new generating capacity, under a large number of uncertainties regarding future conditions, including: rate of demand growth, fluctuations in fuel prices, access to imported fuel, and access to investment capital for construction of new power plants and development of fuel import infrastructure. To identify cost effective investment strategies under these uncertainties, a supply and power sector MARKAL model was assembled, following an extensive review of available data on the Cuban power system and resource potentials. Two scenarios were assessed, a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario assuming continued moderate electricity load growth and domestic fuel production growth, and a high growth (HI) scenario assuming rapid electricity demand growth, rapid increase in domestic fuel production, and a transition to market pricing of electricity. Within these two scenarios sets, sensitivity analyses were conducted on a number of variables. The implications of least-cost investment strategies for new capacity builds, investment spending requirements, electricity prices, fuel expenditures, and carbon dioxide emissions for each scenario were assessed. Natural gas was found to be the cost effective fuel for new generation across both scenarios and most sensitivity cases, suggesting that access to natural gas, through increased domestic production and LNG import, is a clear priority for further analysis in the Cuban context.     

Analysis of the market penetration of clean coal technologies and its impacts in China's electricity sector

This paper discusses policy instruments for promoting the market penetration of clean coal technologies (CCTs) into China's electricity sector and the evaluation of corresponding effects. Based on the reality that coal will remain the predominant fuel to generate electricity and conventional pulverized coal boiler power plants have serious impacts on environment degradation, development of clean coal technologies could be one alternative to meet China's fast growing demand of electricity as well as protect the already fragile environment. A multi-period market equilibrium model is applied and an electricity model of China is established to forecast changes in the electricity system up to 2030s. Three policy instruments: SO₂ emission charge, CO₂ emission charge and implementing subsidies are considered in this research. The results show that all instruments cause a significant shift in China's electricity structure, promote CCTs’ competitiveness and lead China to gain great benefit in both resource saving and environment improvement. Since resource security and environment degradation are becoming primary concerns in China, policies that could help to gain generations’ market share of advanced coal-based technologies such as CCTs’ is suitable for the current situation of China's electricity sector.     

How important are current energy mix choices on future sustainability? Case study: Belgium and Spain—projections towards 2020–2030

Despite recent consumption decrease due to recession, European electricity sector is struggling to reach ambitious targets for reductions of greenhouse gas emissions. Our objective is to carry out a macro analysis of the energy mix in two European countries: Belgium and Spain. Life Cycle Assessments are carried for 2005 as well as for seven possible referenced scenarios to reach EU and also national legal objectives at the horizon 2020 and 2030. Ambitious renewable energy sources’ deployment plans can decrease impacts on the environment significantly as those sources replace polluting traditional sources, such as coal/lignite, oil or gas. When concentrating on projections for the future in Spain, results show that a mix with little coal and oil replaced by up to 54% of RES-E energy sources could bring environmental benefits with CO₂ emissions equivalent around 0.2 kg per kWh produced (compared with 0.54 kg in 2005). In Belgium, all future scenarios presented include more coal and gas with a limited share of RES-E; those mixes present more environmental harmful impacts (up to 0.56 kg CO₂ equivalent). This is why RES-E deployment is crucial as long as it is part of an electricity mix with reduced quantities of traditional fossil fuels.     

The potential impacts of climate-change policy on freshwater use in thermoelectric power generation

Climate change policy involving a price on carbon would change the mix of power plants and the amount of water they withdraw and consume to generate electricity. We analyze what these changes could entail for electricity generation in the United States under four climate policy scenarios that involve different costs for emitting CO₂ and different technology options for reducing emissions out to the year 2030. The potential impacts of the scenarios on the U.S. electric system are modeled using a modified version of the U.S. National Energy Modeling System and water-use factors for thermoelectric power plants derived from electric utility data compiled by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Under all the climate-policy scenarios, freshwater withdrawals decline 2–14% relative to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario of no U.S. climate policy. Furthermore, water use decreases as the price on CO₂ under the climate policies increases. At relatively high carbon prices (>$50/tonne CO₂), however, retrofitting coal plants to capture CO₂ increases freshwater consumption compared to BAU in 2030. Our analysis suggests that climate policies and a carbon price will reduce both electricity generation and freshwater withdrawals compared to BAU unless a substantial number of coal plants are retrofitted to capture CO₂.     

A model for the development of a power production system in Greece,Part I: Where RES do not meet EU targets

This paper studies the electricity production system of the Greek Interconnected Electric Production System using a model created with the software package WASP-IV. The period of study is from 2009 to 2030. It consists of three scenarios using three different criteria: energy, environmental and economic. The three scenarios are the business as usual, the lignite and the natural gas. Subsequently, a sensitivity analysis is carried out for the annual growth rate of electricity consumption and load demand. The paper examines how the three criteria change, when there are no other energy sources beyond those already in use (lignite, oil, natural gas, biomass, solar, wind and hydropower) with no CO₂ capture policies and with the electricity production from Renewable Energy Sources not to reach the targets of the European Union for 2020. In a second paper, three other scenarios examine production with the Renewable Energy Sources to reach the targets of the European Union for 2020.     

Current situation and future perspectives of European natural gas sector

Gas market in Europe is experiencing a radical change for different reasons, partially determined and accelerated by economic downturn of the last period. In the past few years, many European countries adopted energy policies largely based on the utilization of natural gas. In fact, a sharp increase of the demand was observed and, at the same time, a lot of infrastructures were developed to assure the necessary supply. In the last few years, due to the economic downturn, natural gas demand decreased, causing a consistent oversupply on the market, which altered the consolidated dynamics of the sector. Understanding the changes currently under development in the European gas market is of paramount importance in order to design future strategies for the sector; in particular, it is necessary to understand if the present situation will cause a reshaping of the sector.     

Comparing least cost scenarios for 100% renewable electricity with low emission fossil fuel scenarios in the Australian National Electricity Market

Policy makers face difficult choices in planning to decarbonise their electricity industries in the face of significant technology and economic uncertainties. To this end we compare the projected costs in 2030 of one medium-carbon and two low-carbon fossil fuel scenarios for the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM) against the costs of a previously published scenario for 100% renewable electricity in 2030. The three new fossil fuel scenarios, based on the least cost mix of baseload and peak load power stations in 2010, are: (i) a medium-carbon scenario utilising only gas-fired combined cycle gas turbines (CCGTs) and open cycle gas turbines (OCGTs); (ii) coal with carbon capture and storage (CCS) plus peak load OCGT; and (iii) gas-fired CCGT with CCS plus peak load OCGT. We perform sensitivity analyses of the results to future carbon prices, gas prices, and CO₂ transportation and storage costs which appear likely to be high in most of Australia. We find that only under a few, and seemingly unlikely, combinations of costs can any of the fossil fuel scenarios compete economically with 100% renewable electricity in a carbon constrained world. Our findings suggest that policies pursuing very high penetrations of renewable electricity based on commercially available technology offer a cost effective and low risk way to dramatically cut emissions in the electricity sector.     

Assessing the value of wind generation in future carbon constrained electricity industries

This paper employs a novel Monte-Carlo based generation portfolio assessment tool to explore the implications of increasing wind penetration and carbon prices within future electricity generation portfolios under considerable uncertainty. This tool combines optimal generation mix techniques with Monte Carlo simulation and portfolio analysis methods to determine expected overall generation costs, associated cost uncertainty and expected CO₂ emissions for different possible generation portfolios. A case study of an electricity industry with coal, Combined Cycle Gas Turbines (CCGT), Open Cycle Gas Turbines (OCGT) and wind generation options that faces uncertain future fossil-fuel prices, carbon pricing, electricity demand and plant construction costs is presented to illustrate some of the key issues associated with growing wind penetrations. The case study uses half-hourly demand and wind generation data from South Eastern Australia, and regional estimates of new-build plant costs and characteristics. Results suggest that although wind generation generally increases overall industry costs, it reduces associated cost uncertainties and CO₂ emissions. However, there are some cases in which wind generation can reduce the overall costs of generation portfolios. The extent to which wind penetration affects industry expected costs and uncertainties depends on the level of carbon price and the conventional technology mix in the portfolios.     

Impact of the economic recession on the European power sector’s CO2 emissions

This paper investigates the impact of the economic recession on CO₂ emissions in the European power sector, during the years 2008 and 2009. Three main determinants of the power sector’s emissions are identified: the demand for electricity, the CO₂ price, and fuel prices. A counterfactual scenario has been set up for each of these, i.e., what these parameters would have been if not affected by the recession. A simulation model of the European power sector is then employed, comparing a historical reference simulation (taking the parameters as actually occurred) with the counterfactual scenarios. The lower electricity demand (due to the recession) is shown to have by far the largest impact, accounting for an emission reduction of about 175 Mton. The lower CO₂ price (due to the recession) resulted in an increase in emissions by about 30 Mton. The impact of fuel prices is more difficult to retrieve; an indicative reduction of about 17 Mton is obtained, mainly as a consequence of the low gas prices in 2009. The simulated combined impact of the parameters results in an emission reduction of about 150 Mton in the European power sector over the years 2008 and 2009 as a consequence of the recession.     

Understanding the dynamics of electricity supply,resources and pollution: Pakistan's case

To meet the compelling demand for electricity, the government of Pakistan introduced reforms in 1990–1991 that provide incentives for private sector investments, particularly in the electric power industry. In response to these incentives, most of the independent power producers (IPPs) offers included oil, coal and/or gas power plants. Hydroelectric generation, despite its rich resource base in the country, did not gain much attraction. This research provides an assessment of the existing policy subject to the constraints of environment concerns and available, but limited, resources. A dynamic simulation model that captures the dynamics of the sectors underlying the electricity system is built using system dynamics methodology. The policy assessment has been carried out in a three-dimensional context: the electricity supply; the resource import dependency; and the evolution of CO₂ emissions. This research finds that the unchanged prolongation of the existing policy seems to effectively attract IPPs investments but not without potentially adverse consequences for the environment and the economy.     

Aggregate electricity demand in South Africa: Conditional forecasts to 2030

In 2008, South Africa experienced a severe electricity crisis. Domestic and industrial electricity users had to suffer from black outs all over the country. It is argued that partially the reason was the lack of research on energy, locally. However, Eskom argues that the lack of capacity can only be solved by building new power plants.The objective of this study is to specify the variables that explain the electricity demand in South Africa and to forecast electricity demand by creating a model using the Engle–Granger methodology for co-integration and Error Correction models. By producing reliable results, this study will make a significant contribution that will improve the status quo of energy research in South Africa.The findings indicate that there is a long run relationship between electricity consumption and price as well as economic growth/income. The last few years in South Africa, price elasticity was rarely taken into account because of the low and decreasing prices in the past. The short-run dynamics of the system are affected by population growth, tooAfter the energy crisis, Eskom, the national electricity supplier, is in search for substantial funding in order to build new power plants that will help with the envisaged lack of capacity that the company experienced. By using two scenarios for the future of growth, this study shows that the electricity demand will drop substantially due to the price policies agreed – until now – by Eskom and the National Energy Regulator South Africa (NERSA) that will affect the demand for some years.     

Natural Gas requirement by fertilizer sector in India

Natural Gas is one of the important fossil fuel energy resources in India. Anchor customers of natural gas are the power sector and nitrogenous fertilizer. It is the cleanest form of energy derived from the fossil fuel basket. Because of clean combustion characteristics, natural gas is the fuel choice for many sections of Indian industry. The demand for natural gas will grow with time. Currently natural gas accounts for 7% of the primary energy consumption of India. The Government of India has its commitment to food security and energy security. The policies are directed toward greater allocation of natural gas on a priority basis to fertilizer and the power sector. Natural gas is the main and preferred feedstock for urea manufacture. This paper analyzes and estimates projected demand of natural gas in the next two decades. The demand projections have been reviewed in the context of changing government policies regarding the fertilizer industry, such as farm gate price regulation and self-sufficiency level of indigenous urea production. The current growth plan of natural gas supply and evolving supply scenario in the future are also considered in the study.     

Forecasting total and industrial sector electricity demand based on genetic algorithm approach: Turkey case study

This study deals with estimation of the total and industrial sector electricity consumption based on genetic algorithm (GA) approach, and then proposes two scenarios to project future consumptions. Total electricity consumption is estimated based on gross national product (GNP), population, import and export figures of Turkey. Industrial sector electricity is calculated based on the GNP, import and export figures. Three forms of the genetic algorithm electricity demand (GAED) models for the total and two forms for the industrial electricity consumption are developed. The best‐fit GAED model in terms of total minimum relative average errors between observed and estimated values is selected for future demand estimation. ‘High‐ and low‐growth scenarios’ are proposed for predicting the future electricity consumption. Results showed that the GAED estimates the electricity demand in comparison with the other electricity demand projections. The GAED model plans electricity demand of Turkey until 2020. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The forest products industry at an energy/climate crossroads

Transformational energy and climate policies are being debated worldwide that could have significant impact upon the future of the forest products industry. Because woody biomass can produce alternative transportation fuels, low-carbon electricity, and numerous other “green” products in addition to traditional paper and lumber commodities, the future use of forest resources is highly uncertain. Using the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS), this paper assesses the future of the forest products industry under three possible U.S. policy scenarios: (1) a national renewable electricity standard, (2) a national policy of carbon constraints, and (3) incentives for industrial energy efficiency. In addition, we discuss how these policy scenarios might interface with the recently strengthened U.S. renewable fuels standards. The principal focus is on how forest products including residues might be utilized under different policy scenarios, and what such market shifts might mean for electricity and biomass prices, as well as energy consumption and carbon emissions. The results underscore the value of incentivizing energy efficiency in a portfolio of energy and climate policies in order to moderate electricity and biomass price escalation while strengthening energy security and reducing CO₂ emissions.     

Renewable energy technologies for the Indian power sector: mitigation potential and operational strategies

The future economic development trajectory for India is likely to result in rapid and accelerated growth in energy demand, with attendant shortages and problems. Due to the predominance of fossil fuels in the generation mix, there are large negative environmental externalities caused by electricity generation. The power sector alone has a 40 percent contribution to the total carbon emissions. In this context, it is imperative to develop and promote alternative energy sources that can lead to sustainability of the energy–environment system. There are opportunities for renewable energy technologies under the new climate change regime as they meet the two basic conditions to be eligible for assistance under UNFCCC mechanisms: they contribute to global sustainability through GHG mitigation; and, they conform to national priorities by leading to the development of local capacities and infrastructure. This increases the importance of electricity generation from renewables. Considerable experience and capabilities exist in the country on renewable electricity technologies. But a number of techno–economic, market-related, and institutional barriers impede technology development and penetration. Although at present the contribution of renewable electricity is small, the capabilities promise the flexibility for responding to emerging economic, socio–environmental and sustainable development needs. This paper discusses the renewable and carbon market linkages and assesses mitigation potential of power sector renewable energy technologies under global environmental intervention scenarios for GHG emissions reduction. An overall energy system framework is used for assessing the future role of renewable energy in the power sector under baseline and different mitigation scenarios over a time frame of 35 years, between 2000 to 2035. The methodology uses an integrated bottom-up modelling framework. Looking into past performance trends and likely future developments, analysis results are compared with officially set targets for renewable energy. The paper also assesses the CDM investment potential for power sector renewables. It outlines specific policy interventions for overcoming the barriers and enhancing deployment of renewables for the future.